West Bloomfield, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

314
FXUS63 KDTX 240809
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
309 AM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and seasonable weather with mostly cloudy skies today.

- Low pressure will bring rain chances and brief shot of milder air
on Monday.

- Below normal temperatures arrive Tuesday and likely persist into
next weekend.

- There is the potential for snow for the upcoming holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Weak mid level warm air advection emerging early this morning, as
flow backs to southwesterly ahead of an inbound mid level wave and
associated height falls. Radar trends offer some evidence of very
light returns/virga as some weak fgen emerges within the advective
process, although lack of greater moisture depth will minimize the
overall opportunity for light rain/drizzle production going forward
this morning. Otherwise, high pressure to govern conditions today
beneath transient upper ridging. Neutral thermal advection persists
below 925 mb today, before taking greater hold nocturnally tonight,
so similar range in high temperatures capped in the mid-upper 40s
most locations. Generous amount of cloud cover also a limiting
factor in prospective diurnal insolation potential.

Strengthening mid level southwest flow with time will establish a
period of greater moist isentropic ascent late tonight into early
Monday.  This occurs along the east flank of surface low projected
to track across or just to the west of the area. While greater
forcing will tend to focus north and west of the low track, enough
upglide exists to generate pockets of light showers during this
window. The overall advective process gains traction with a diurnal
assist, bringing highs to or just above 50 degrees. Additional rain
shower development will focus within the deformation axis and along
the trailing cold front, maintaining a higher probability for the
late day/evening period. Ensuing cold air advection will eventually
initiate some degree of downstream moisture flux off lake Michigan
in westerly flow late Monday night and Tuesday. Forecast will
continue to highlight a lower end potential for some light rain to
snow shower production as freezing levels rapidly fall throughout
Tuesday morning, with a particular focus generally north of M-59
given projected placement of supportive moisture depth and weak
convergence signal. Surface temperatures still in the mid 30s will
mitigate concern for meaningful accumulation with any activity.

Forecast heading into the upcoming holiday weekend and peak travel
period highlighted by a noteworthy shift toward an extended stretch
of below average temperatures, with an associated increase in the
probability for snowfall at times. Initial focus anchored on
behavior of a governing wave and accompanying upper jet of central
pacific origin and a northern stream feature projected to intersect
the ongoing height falls over the plains by Wednesday. Model
sensitivity to scale, timing and placement of this interaction on
full display across the ensemble solution space, with a substantial
spread in the downstream projection of the large scale features and
a widely varying outcome in terms of snowfall potential locally
Wednesday and Thursday. Latest NBM output displays a 24 hour
accumulation of 1-2 inches at the 75th percentile, with less than an
inch at the 50th. Southeast Michigan will continue to be
precariously positioned within the northern expanse of this system
as it tracks across the lower Ohio valley, with further latitudinal
fluctuations in system trajectory expected for this period.

Trailing polar wave arrives Thursday night and Friday, driving a
much colder airmass into the region. This process effectively
activates the upstream lake effect, while also contributing a
broader region of ascent beneath the upper troughing. Regardless of
the Thanksgiving outcome, this will present a meaningful opportunity
for snow shower development. Forecast then remains unchanged for the
remainder of the weekend, marked by well below average temperature
and intermittent chances for snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure builds into the southern Great Lakes this morning,
with lingering lake enhanced showers coming to an end. Northwest
winds subside further throughout the day, while sustained winds and
gusts both drop below 10 knots tonight. Quiet marine weather will be
brief however as the next low pressure system is already developing
over the Plains. This system surges a strong low level jet into the
Great Lakes Monday morning, but will be accompanied by a warm/stable
airmass that prevents these winds from mixing to the surface. The
added Gulf moisture will generate widespread rain showers on Monday
as the surface low lifts into Lake Huron by Monday night. There is
still quite a bit of variability regarding where the low tracks
Monday night and beyond, which has significant implications on the
wind forecast for Tuesday-Wednesday. Regardless, cold advection will
follow behind the low to add snow chances into the mix by Tuesday.
Gusty winds will develop during this time period amidst a steepening
boundary layer, in which guidance suggests a window of 30 knot to
possibly 35 knot gusts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1137 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

AVIATION...

MVFR based clouds remain locked in across metro Detroit as moisture
remains under a deep low level inversion. The inversion is a little
higher based with a little lower degree of moisture farther north,
which has resulted in areas of MVFR based stratus and has even led
to some areas of clearing, mainly impacting KFNT and KMBS. There
will be a gradual northeastward shift in the upstream low clouds
during the overnight and into Sunday afternoon. This will allow the
paraboloids of MVFR based clouds to increase through the course of
the morning. The signals for some drizzle in the morning are a
little less on the incoming 00Z model runs in comparison to earlier
model solutions. There is still enough of a low level convergence
component within a moistening low level profile to maintain the
mention of lower clouds with drizzle in the 09Z to 14Z time frame.
The low level flow will turn more southerly Sunday afternoon. This
will erode the low level inversion and allow a more robust clearing
of the low clouds late afternoon/evening.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

*  High in ceilings at or below 5000 ft tonight and Sunday. Low
   Sunday night.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......MV
AVIATION.....SC

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.