Troy, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

306
FXUS63 KDTX 141155
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
655 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- No precipitation expected through the weekend.

- Chance for some freezing fog development overnight.

- Above normal temperatures this weekend through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...

A weak pressure trough dissipated during the night while leaving low
clouds and fog across northern Lower Mi. The clouds settle into the
MBS area and toward FNT during the morning while clear sky holds
across the DTW corridor. Diffuse high pressure builds just enough to
nudge the clouds northward with some daytime dissipation also
expected. Patchy shallow cumulus are accompanied by increasing high
clouds off the Gulf states low pressure system this afternoon. Light
wind with an easterly component primes the boundary layer with
moisture off the mostly frozen lakes and melting snow on land for a
fog setup tonight. Wind drops off after sunset to promote fog
development and IFR visibility after midnight subdued slightly by
lingering coverage of broken cirrus toward DTW into sunrise Sunday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceiling at or below 5000 feet late tonight into Sunday
  morning.

* Low for cig/vsby below 200ft and/or 1/2SM late tonight and Sunday
  morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

DISCUSSION...

A diffuse area of high pressure has settled across the Great Lakes
which has brought about clear conditions this morning and will lead
to another round of dry weather through the day. For the afternoon,
the temperature high forecast is nuanced and will be predicated on
the degree of inland advancement of the stratus deck now over Lake
Huron and northern lower Michigan. Low level flow will veer through
the morning which will accelerate the expansion of the status towards
the Tri- Cities and northern Thumb where it will likely stall out
and eventually scour and deflect back into Lake Huron as flow begins
to back southwest through the afternoon. Influence of both the
northerly flow and overcast conditions for part of the peak diurnal
cycle will have the ability to cap highs in the 30s. For locations
south of the stratus deck, especially closer to the MI/OH border and
Metro region, the stronger insolation through a building translucent
cirrus deck and mixing out of the nocturnal inversion with inversion
heights peaking around 7C will push temperatures highs in the 40s,
with highs in the mid to upper 40s not out of the question.

Overnight, calm to light winds at the surface and clear skies will
bring the chance for fog development overnight. With temperatures
dropping below the freezing mark, some periodic freezing fog will be
possible. Statistical MOS guidance lends support for fog development
overnight, possibly dense at times, however, confidence on coverage
is low at this time. Will introduce patchy freezing fog to this
forecast package noting the conducive environment for potential
development.

The trend of above normal temperatures and quieter weather will
continue through the early week period. The next probable window for
precipitation will enter between late Tuesday night to Wednesday as
a Pacific wave arrives onshore, inducing low pressure as it traverse
across the Rockies, with the low pressure system forecasted to enter
the Midwest. Ensemble QPF means between the CMCE/GEFS/EPS ensemble
set and respective deterministic output brings high confidence that
the Great Lakes region will see precipitation, owing to the large
footprint of isentropic ascent along the elongated baroclinic zone.

The higher uncertainty will surround around precipitation type as
cluster phase space analysis continues to highlight the degree of
troughing across the Plains as the main point of uncertainty. This
will have impacts on the final track of the low pressure system and
thus degree of warm sector influence across SE MI. Latest trends
highly a less progressive and thus warmer environment for SE MI,
favoring rain as the p-type for a greater portion of the cwa. This
can be seen in the warmer temperatures and shrinking of
interquartile spread within the EPS through the Metro region, but
overall would need better sampling of the wave to increase
confidence on these early trends. Any progressive/cooler solutions
will favor chances for rain/snow or freezing rain. There will be
additional chances for precipitation including some wintry weather
Thursday into Friday as a secondary wave and low pressure system
moves in through the Midwest/Great Lakes.

MARINE...

A weak pressure pattern holds across the region this weekend into
early next week as the dominant storm tracks remain directed to the
north and south. This maintains overall benign and mild conditions.
A weak clipper/trough moves into the northern Great Lakes on Sunday
with a slight uptick in S to SSW wind to around 10 to 15 kt. A
similar weak system moves through on Monday as well. A period of
more active weather is then likely by the middle of next week with
multiple low pressure systems tracking through the region.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...AM
MARINE.......TF


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.