Sterling Heights, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

898
FXUS63 KDTX 130734
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
334 AM EDT Thu Mar 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions will prevail today through Friday.

- Warming trend today into Saturday with above normal temperatures.

- Windy conditions are expected Saturday, with gusts over 40 MPH.

- There is a chance of thunderstorms late Friday night and then
again Saturday and Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Subtle waa during the later afternoon hours with and sunshine (some
translucent cirrus possible, with increasing degree of thickness for
the northern third of the cwa) will allow temperatures to rise into
the 50s today, outside of the immediate lake shorelines. Dry weather
persists through the day, with lows dropping back into the 30s
overnight. Attention will then turn to a potent upper-level trough
arrives onshore across the western continental U.S., extending south
through Baja California. As it progresses east, the trough will
undergo deformation, pinching off into a deep closed upper low as it
pivots southeast into the southern Rockies. This wave is compact and
well defined via a dynamic tropopause perspective, extending down
through 600mb.

Strong CVA within the left exit region of an upper jet streak will
contribute to rapid lee cyclogenesis. Ensemble guidance is in strong
agreement on the development of a sub-980 mb surface low. The
intensity of this system is further highlighted by a 1000-500mb 12-
hour height fall reaching nearly -18 dam, underscoring the magnitude
of deep-layer cyclogenesis. This low will maintain intensity while
undergoing occlusion, reaching Wisconsin and the northern Great
Lakes later in the day on Saturday. The strength of the system will
place is well outside climatological norms both in terms of MSLP
intensity and spatial footprint.

The impacts for the Great Lakes region include anomalous warm air
advection characterized by 850mb temperatures ranging between 8C-
11C. This will support afternoon highs well into the 60s by Friday
afternoon, possibly hitting 70 in spots, mild overnight lows in the
50s Saturday morning (which may challenge record hi lows), and
temperatures in the low 70s by Saturday.

This system will also bring the likely chance for multiple rounds of
rain showers and possible thunderstorms, along with windy
conditions. An initial round of precipitation targeted for Saturday
morning will bring a brief window for organized elevated convection,
driven by a strong integrated vapor transport axis. Steep mid-level
lapse rates aoa 7C/km will support the potential for elevated
thunderstorms. A dry slot will follow, aligning with the peak wind
threat and maximizing vertical mixing from a tightening pressure
gradient. Mixing depths aoa 5kft would tap into a 50+ knot low level
jet, supporting the potential for wind gusts exceeding 40 mph.

Latest guidance has trended the moisture axis farther west compared
to prior runs, introducing some uncertainty regarding the magnitude
of the aforementioned dry slotting. This could allow for sufficient
afternoon moisture recovery and several hundred joules of CAPE to
develop. With strong deep-layer shear in place, there is some
potential for marginal severe organized convection despite lower
instability, though the extent of coverage will depend both on
moisture quality and on any capping in the low-levels.

A secondary wave will then drive another surge of moisture across SE
MI late Saturday into Sunday morning, supporting a prolonged period
of rainfall and possibly some embedded thunderstorms. Cooler
temperatures and lingering showers will follow Sunday along and
behind a cold front, with dry conditions then settling in Monday as
a ridge of high pressure builds in.

&&

.MARINE...

Diffuse pressure gradient holds across the central Great Lakes today
maintaining light 10kt or less winds through the first half of
tonight. Southeasterly winds then strengthen over the course Friday
in response to strong low pressure lifting out of the Plains the
upper Midwest. Strongest winds occur from early Saturday morning
through the afternoon as the low lifts through MN. Strong warm
advection over the cold lake waters sets up strong near-surface
stability greatly limiting the ability for 45-55kt flow only 1-2kft
aloft. Local probabilistic guidance continues to suggest only around
a 20% chance to reach 34kts during this timeframe. For now, running
forecast with highlight gusts around 30kts and no Gale Watch given
the unfavorable thermal setup. System also brings widespread showers
as well as a few thunderstorms, particularly towards Lakes Erie & St
Clair, daytime Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1157 PM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025

AVIATION...

Surface ridging will remain in place tonight allowing strong static
stability in the lowest 12.0 kft agl and a dry airmass to maintain
VFR conditions. The combination of the surface ridge breaking down
locally and passage of a mid-upper level anticyclone through the
OH/TN valleys will open the door for the early stages of low level
warm advection into the area. Latest model data is very dry and
subsaturated in the lowest 5.0 kft agl Thursday morning. Modest east
wind is anticipated throughout the period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceilings aob 5kft late Thursday morning.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AM
MARINE.......KDK
AVIATION.....CB


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.