St. Clair Shores, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

704
FXUS63 KDTX 221054
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
554 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures warm as we head into early next week, with
highs above 40 degrees Monday through Wednesday.

- Dry weather this weekend with better precipitation chances early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...

The Lake Michigan moisture plume within southwest flow will sustain
areas of MVFR based clouds just west of the terminals this morning.
Diurnal mixing into the dry ambient airmass above the low level
inversion will quickly erode any lingering low clouds by late
morning. Diurnal mixing will support an increase in the SW winds by
afternoon. With 25 to 30 knot winds within the top of the diurnal
mixed layer, wind gusts over 20 knots can be expected at times this
afternoon. A passing short wave across the northern Great Lakes this
afternoon will drive a region of clouds based between 4k and 6k feet
across Se Mi during the evening.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

DISCUSSION...

Our warmup remains on target through early next week, although today
will likely not be warmer compared to yesterday due to the sunshine
which developed. In fact, with the secondary shortwave trough/height
falls over southern Manitoba/Ontario tracking through the northern
Great Lakes, there may be enough cold air and cloud development over
Tri-Cities region for temps to come up just short of yesterday.
Higher confidence in the southern half of the CWA reaching into the
lower 30s once again, as 925 MB temps progged to reach around -7 C
with solid low level southwest flow.

Upper level ridge over the Great Basin into the northern Rockies
will be flattening and advancing east as Pacific energy/jet/good
height falls move onshore and track through British Columbia. This
system is on track to move through the northern Great Lakes/Ontario
Sunday night-Monday. 850 MB temps progged to reach 2 C north to 6 C
near the southern Michigan border Monday afternoon. Temperatures
rising into the low to mid 40s seems reasonable, per latest guidance.

Another fast moving upper level wave tracking through the Midwest
Monday night and arriving by Tuesday morning. 00z models showing some
differences with the 500 MB shortwave, as UKMET/GFS indicate a track
through southern Lower Michigan, while the Euro lead solution trends
farther south through the Ohio Valley. ICON/Canadian solutions are
in between. Even with the northern solution, significant
precipitation appears unlikely. The Euro is actually the most bullish
(trending wetter compared to its 12z run), with the 00z Euro
ensembles indicating a 40-60 percent chance of reaching and exceeding
a tenth of an inch of qpf. Even so, rain looks to be the main precip
type with wet bulb zero heights above 2500 feet and surface dew pts
rising into the mid 30s, helped out by the snow melt during the day
as well. As such, fog could become an issue before rain develops.

Yet another fast moving Pacific wave progged to arrive on Wednesday,
with the surface low/reflection close to the southern Michigan
border. Thermal profiles still appear to be just a bit too warm to
support accumulating snow.

MARINE...

A low-level jet passing over the central Great Lakes will bolster
gusty SW to WSW winds through the day. With milder air working in,
stability below the 35 to 40 kt jet core will keep the highest
momentum above the surface, but mixing within the near-surface layer
should be sufficient for gusts in the 20 to 30 knot range today. The
strongest winds are most likely near the Straits (mainly this
morning) and from Saginaw Bay downwind into central Lake Huron
(mainly this afternoon). A period of 35 kt gales cannot be ruled out
for this afternoon, but low confidence in occurrence and expected
brevity precludes a gale headline. The jet passes east by late this
evening, causing wind to subside. Moderate SW wind persists through
Sunday with milder air continuing to advect in. An uptick in SW to S
wind to around 20 to 25 knots is then likely Monday as a clipper
system tracks into the northern Great Lakes. An active pattern is in
store for next week with several additional low pressure systems
likely bring rain and snow at times. Low confidence exists on timing
and strength of these systems.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......TF


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