Orion, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

140
FXUS63 KDTX 251153
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
653 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread freezing rain and wintry mix for much of Southeast
Michigan Friday. Ice accumulations between a tenth and two tenths
favored. Around an inch of snow and sleet mix possible in the
northernmost portions of the Thumb.

- Arctic cold front late Sunday with strong northwest winds
appearing likely Sunday night and Monday.

- Below normal temperatures to start next work week.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low clouds associated with the Ohio Valley low pressure have drawn
south, but some MVFR VSBY restrictions have developed under the
clearing. These should clear up with sunrise. Wind fields turn north
to northeast throughout today and will usher in a low stratus deck
currently working through northern lower Michigan aided by Lake
Huron moisture component. Low clouds will bring MVFR to IFR ceilings
with IFR more likely across MBS and FNT. Daytime mixing will try and
lift ceilings out of IFR during the afternoon. Winds veer toward the
east this evening into tonight bringing a break in lower ceilings.
Freezing rain potential increases tomorrow morning. Highest chances
move in just beyond 12Z tomorrow morning.

For DTW...Low clouds look to expand across DTW today bringing
predominately MVFR ceilings before clearing out this evening into
tonight. Probability is high for freezing rain/drizzle to impact the
airspace tomorrow morning starting shortly after 12Z. Freezing rain
is expected to last through the morning and possibly into the early
afternoon.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling 5000 feet or less by late morning and through
  the afternoon. Low tonight.

* High for freezing rain tomorrow morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

DISCUSSION...

Quiet weather for Christmas Day as high pressure sliding over
northern Ontario sends a dry backdoor cold front through SE MI this
morning-early afternoon. Southern half of the region will be able to
see highs in the upper 30s with low 40s toward the Ohio border
whereas the northern half, seeing the earlier push of cold
advection, hold closer to the mid 30s. This cooler near-surface
airmass as sets the stage for the next shortwave ejecting out of the
Plains and into the Great Lakes late tonight-early Friday.

While a few light snow showers are possible over the northern Thumb
late tonight as its clipped by the lead arm of isentropic aided by
left exit region jet dynamics, little to no accumulation is
expected. Instead the main associated precipitation overspreads SE
MI between 7-10Z and persists into the afternoon. Confidence remains
high that the surface warm front will fail to lift into SE MI or
only partially push into southern Lenawee-Monroe at best due to
persistent cool east-southeast at the base of the aforementioned
high as well as the favored low track over northern IN/OH. Result is
fairly high confidence in the p-type forecast with freezing rain
being predominate for the bulk of the CWA outside of areas north of
M-46 in the Thumb. For these areas, snow looks to hold as main type
however forecast soundings are a bit more aggressive at attempting
to get a shallow warm nose of 1-2C at ~5kft which offers sleet
wintry mix potential. As noted in prior forecast cycle, the main
issue now is QPF. The dichotomy between the coarser global/regional
models vs a good portion of the high-res models continue to be seen
in the latest 00Z runs. The GEFS/CMCE/EPS means and their
deterministic models still are holding to robust amounts of 0.25-
0.4" centered either over the central or northern portions of the
CWA. High res solutions, while still carrying noteworthy variation
(ie compare 00Z Nam Nest-HRRR-ARW-NSSL), generally favor a more
southerly QPF footprint as well as being being leaner at around 0.1"
as a whole. 00Z HRRR/ARW are even more extreme advertising only a
few hundreths for most of the area. This stems from these solutions
favoring greater ascent on the lower portions of the frontal slope
across either southern SE MI or northern IN/OH reducing available
moisture further up the slope over the central/northern portions of
the CWA.

While there still are the stark differences, decided to hedge a bit
more towards the higher-res model camp for this forecast cycle and
cut down running QPF towards 0.15-0.2". This results in a reduction
in forecast ice accumulations down closer to around 0.1-0.15" for
most areas. For the snow side of this system, the Thumb resides
under the left exit region of the western Great Lakes jet max
throughout the day which keeps more persistent light to perhaps
brief moderate precip rates through the afternoon (even in the drier
high-res solutions). Signal for more sleet to mix in will cut into
potential snow accumulations however- forecast totals around 0.5-1".
With the high uncertainty in QPF, opted against headlines in this
forecast package to allow a chance to see if convergence in
solutions begin to manifest in the 12Z cycles.

Mid-level ridging follows in the wake of the low for Saturday
bringing drier weather as well as the start of milder air as
southerly return flow raises 850mb temps from 0-1C in the morning to
6-7C by evening. Saturday highs don`t fully realize this warm
advection given mildest air arriving in the evening, instead topping
out towards the mid-upper 30s, however it does allow for widespread
40s and perhaps near 50 in the far south Sunday. Respectable mid-
upper Pacific Northwest trough arrives over the central CONUS
daytime Sunday supporting rapid cyclogensis over the Midwest. This
deepening low is progged to lift over the Great Lakes late day
bringing widespread rainfall with a backedge changeover to snow as
its associated cold front sweeps through Sunday night. Strong cold
advection follows as the trough allows a portion of arctic air of
northern Ontario to drive south over the Great Lakes likely
generating gusty winds near or in excess of 30kts (35mph). Highs to
start the new work week remain in the 20s as thermal troughing
lingers. This colder, windy setup also supports lake effect snow
showers/snow squalls pushing into SE MI.

MARINE...

High pressure will continue to push eastward across the James Bay
region through the day on Thursday.  Lighter winds will continue
through the morning before northerly flow increases going through
the day as a low pressure system begins to move towards the region.
This will bring elevated wave heights along the Lake Huron
shoreline. Small Craft Advisories may be needed Thursday into Friday
given the favorable fetch increasing wave heights. The shift to
easterly flow overnight Thursday will also bring some stronger gusts
with wind gusts ranging between 20 to 30 knots across Lake Huron.
Easterly flow will persist through Friday as a low pressure system
brings in wintry precipitation to the region.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Friday for LHZ421-441>443.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....AA
DISCUSSION...KDK
MARINE.......SS


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