Macomb, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

817
FXUS63 KDTX 070550
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1250 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...


- Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected this morning into
  early afternoon. There is a low risk of severe weather with these
  storms.

- Warm and windy with southwest wind gusts of 35 to 45 MPH today.

- Above average temperatures are expected through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...

Southwest winds have largely scattered out the persistent low clouds
from earlier and will bring a period of VFR conditions for the early
morning hours. LLWS concerns remain into tonight with weak surface
winds and strong low level jet aloft, though gusty winds will
eventually pick up ahead of the inbound cold front. Next round of
showers and thunderstorms arrives after 12Z this ahead of said cold
front. Line of showers/thunderstorms will move into MBS around 13Z
and spread across the remaining terminals throughout the morning
bringing likely MVFR conditions with IFR possible at times as the
system rolls through. Winds become gusty out of the southwest at 30
to 35 knots by mid-morning as better mixing develops. Line of
convection moves east early this afternoon with gusty west winds to
around 25 knots through the rest of this afternoon tomorrow as MVFR
ceilings look to hold through bulk of the day.

For DTW... Low clouds have mostly cleared out with a few lingering
showers over the next couple of hours. Stronger thunderstorm
potential will begin around 14-15Z this and clearing east early
afternoon.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceiling at or below 5000 ft through tonight. High this
  morning and afternoon.

* Moderate for thunderstorms at DTW mid-morning to early afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

DISCUSSION...

The cluster of showers/isolated thunderstorms now advancing across
the Saginaw Valley are tied to a mid level short wave impulse along
the leading edge of a plume of elevated instability. A stronger wave
tracking into central Lake Michigan this afternoon will track across
nrn Lower Mi this evening. The trailing moist axis combined with the
advection of weak elevated inability ongoing across srn Mi will
support additional convective development this evening. A strong warm
front positioned along the MI/OH border will slowly be drawn
northward during the night under increasing southerly flow preceding
a surface wave lifting across the western Great Lakes. The warm
sector south this boundary is characterized by sfc temps in the 70s
and dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Weak sfc based cape within this
warm sector will attempt to push into Lenawee/Washtenaw counties this
evening prior to nocturnal cooling, at least increasing the risk of
a severe storm given the strong wind fields. Otherwise, evening
convection will largely be elevated atop a very stable boundary
layer, suggestive of hail as the main severe weather concern. With
upper 50/lower 60 degree sfc dewpoints advecting into Se Mi along the
warm front, areas of dense fog are likely to persist prior to the
arrival of the warm sector, especially within the Lake Erie/St Clair
marine layer. The northward advancing warm front will also lead to
rising temps during the night.

An approaching upper level trough axis will drive an associated cold
front across Se Mi late Saturday afternoon. There is strong
agreement among hi res guidance and ensemble members indicating lead
short wave features driving another round of convective Saturday
morning. The coverage and duration of this will determine severe
convective chances and wind gust potential later in the day. Ample
warm moist air will remain in place in advance of the cold front,
easily supporting highs in the 60s. A strongly sheared environment
will remain in place. At this point, it is questionable at to
whether there will be enough surface based instability to balance
the shear, especially if early day convection becomes a little more
widespread. For this reason, most of Se Mi remains in a marginal
risk for severe wx. Daytime mixing potential will also support windy
conditions. Available probabilistic guidance suggests enough
uncertainty as to whether mixing depths adequately reach into the 40-
45 knot low level wind fields to hold off on advisory criteria wind
gusts attm.

Respectable yet shallow post frontal cold air advection will drive
temps into the 30s Sun night. Rebounding mid level heights and
steady warm air advection within west-southwest winds will result in
a steady warming trend Sunday into Monday under dry conditions.
Highs in the 60s look highly probably on Monday, with some ensemble
members still indicating a few locals reaching 70.

MARINE...

Ongoing progression of a warm front across the Great Lakes will
continue to advect in higher surface moisture and given ongoing
dense fog across Lake Erie and Lake St Clair and factoring in
expanding moisture, have opted to expand the marine dense fog
advisory across all of Lake Huron and the Saginaw Bay and extend the
ongoing advisory for locations south. Some improvement with
visibilities will be possible with any rain showers, however,
widespread improvement to conditions will be more likely with the
passage of a cold front which will move across the Great Lakes
through tomorrow afternoon.

Widespread rain showers with a low chance for some embedded
thunderstorms will move in this evening across Lake Huron. A lull in
activity overnight, with a second round of rain showers and
thunderstorms chances expected through tomorrow morning ahead and
along the cold front. There will be a low-end chance for gusts to
reach gales along and immediately behind the cold front tomorrow
afternoon, but given the brevity for gale potential, will preclude
and issuance of gale products. Any stronger thunderstorms will have
the capability to produce gusts in excess of 34 knots.

Some additional low end chances for gust to gales will be possible
Sunday morning and afternoon, but a near neutral thermal profiles
brings low confidence if stronger winds aloft will make it to the
surface. A strong warm front then pushes through Monday morning,
which will bring breezy southwest flow with gusts around 30 knots.

HYDROLOGY...

Probabilities show two time periods with the greatest/more
widespread rain potential; this evening and then again Saturday
morning. 12-hour rain totals are most likely to fall into the one
quarter to three quarters inch range. Some totals up to an inch are
possible across the Saginaw Valley and thumb regions. While this
will result in rises on area rivers, no flooding is forecast.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ361>363-421-
     422-441>443-462>464.

Lake St Clair...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....AA
DISCUSSION...SC
MARINE.......AM
HYDROLOGY....SC


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