Kentwood, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

086
FXUS63 KGRR 230835
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
335 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very light drizzle or showers through Sunday morning

- Light rain showers Monday turning to light snow Tuesday

- Colder with potential winter weather through the holiday weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

- Very light drizzle or showers through Sunday morning

Expecting a weak ridging pattern over the weekend with pretty
nondescript surface features, in the saddle between lows to our
east and west and highs to our north and south. Near the ground, a
shallow layer of cool and moist air will be maintained beneath an
inversion around 850 mb. The low-based and low-topped stratus or
stratocumulus clouds, with enhancement from Lake Michigan, should
continue to spit out very light drizzle or occasional light rain,
amounting a trace to 0.01 inch through Sunday morning. Occasional
ice-bearing clouds drifting over top in the 700-600 mb layer which
would promote seeder-feeder, and/or weak surface convergence
features, may also assist. Quite inconsequential though.
Temperatures will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s, so at least it
isn`t freezing drizzle.

- Light rain showers Monday turning to light snow Tuesday

Low pressure at the surface is likely to track over Lower
Michigan on Monday, and the milder air brought in with it is set
to make Monday the warmest day of the week with highs over 50
possible. The low may not be well consolidated at 850-500 mb and
may tend to arrive in a couple of waves, first light rain on the
warm side during the day Monday, then a lake-enhanced rain-to-snow
changeover late Monday night to Tuesday morning. Total QPF around
0.1 to 0.25 inch is most favored, though some ensemble members
are even drier. A light coating of snow less than an inch is also
generally favored. Better snow is more likely in northern
Michigan. Farther downstate, our lake-enhanced snows may be
limited by relatively drier upstream air.

- Colder with potential winter weather through the holiday weekend

Quick summary: Colder-than-normal temperatures are likely from
midweek through the holiday weekend as progressively colder air
flows in. Occasional bursts of snow in some areas may cause travel
slowdowns and slick roads, especially after Thanksgiving. There
is a small (roughly 10 percent) chance of several inches of snow
on Thanksgiving.

The anticipated longwave pattern likely to set up across southern
Canada into the northern US will favor shots of modified Arctic
air with 850 temperatures -10 C or colder from Friday through the
weekend. The deeper cold air will favor periods of accumulating
lake- effect snow after Thanksgiving. Thanksgiving itself is more
open- ended in terms of possibilities, as ensemble clusters differ
in the magnitude of central CONUS troughing and eastern US
ridging, with implications on the strength and track of an Ohio
Valley low pressure system which could produce snow on the north
side of the track. Ensembles give about a 15 to 30 percent chance
of at least an inch of snow for Thanksgiving (central Michigan
being on the lower end of that chance). A smaller group of
solutions, mostly among the ECE, offer the potential for multiple
inches of snow from a farther north low track. A Thanksgiving Day
snowstorm would be the 10 percent chance scenario at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

This forecast period will be dominated by MVFR low clouds. Most
sites are seeing these clouds off the bat this morning, although
there are some bands of slight clearing. We have remained
pessimistic with the cloud forecast given the time of the year
where low clouds rule and the impacts. There are a few areas of
light showers/drizzle out there also. The best concentration of
these are closer to the lakeshore. They have been affecting the
vsbys a little, but the clouds already are MVFR so not a big deal.

We do expect that some improvement will take place toward Saturday
afternoon. This will mainly be a diminishing threat for any
rain/drizzle, and a diurnal lifting of the ceilings a little to
above 2k ft agl. These conditions should persist for most of the
rest of the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 335 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

Northwest winds will relax and back more from the west during the
afternoon. Waves 3 to 6 feet this morning will be hazardous to
small craft, then waves are expected to diminish to 2 to 4 feet
later in the day. Hazardous winds and waves for small craft are
likely to return Monday afternoon through Tuesday.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CAS
AVIATION...NJJ
MARINE...CAS