Kalamazoo, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

088
FXUS63 KGRR 040710
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
310 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and Windy Today, Rain and Thunderstorms Tonight

- Cooler with Frost/Freeze Potential This Week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

- Warm and Windy Today, Rain and Thunderstorms Tonight

Southwest flow and warm air advection ramp up today with highs in
the mid 70s across much of the area. It won`t be as windy as
yesterday, but gusts 25 to 35 mph are expected to develop this
morning into the afternoon. With the warm temperatures and gusty
winds there is an elevated fire risk today. Check the FIRE WEATHER
section below for more information.

Our next shortwave trough that will help spark off shower and
thunderstorm development moves in this evening from the Northern
Plains. Upper level divergence picks up with the approaching
trough with some low level convergence with the low level jet
across southern Michigan. This convergence could spark off showers
and storms near the I-94 corridor around 6PM. Shear around 30 to
40 knots and MUCAPE values around 1000 J/kg along with decent mid
level lapse rates and a deep dry layer at the surface will pose a
risk for severe storms. Damaging winds and large hail are
possible, with the best risk south of I-96. An approaching cold
front will spark off additional showers and thunderstorms further
north and shift slowly southeast overnight into Tuesday.

- Cooler with Frost/Freeze Potential This Week

The cold front will still be moving through southeast portions of
the area Tuesday with some lingering rain showers before dry
conditions return Tuesday night into Wednesday. Behind the cold
front colder air will be advecting in. Depending on winds and
cloud cover frost/freeze conditions will be possible each night
into the weekend.

The upper level low will remain over the Hudson Bay area and
continue to rotate shortwave troughs through the region. Chances
for rain will depend on the timing and moisture with each
shortwave. At this time slight chances (20 percent) for rain
exist each day into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected through most of the forecast period
with southwest winds picking up once more this morning into the
afternoon. Gusts around 25 to 30 knots are expected with the
potential for some isolated gusts to 35 knots.

Early this evening between 22Z to 00Z showers and thunderstorms
may develop from AZO to JXN. Any thunderstorms that develop could
be strong to severe with damaging winds and large hail. Confidence
is not high enough that this initial round of storms will impact
MKG, GRR, and LAN, but a cold front moving through tonight will
bring better chances for rain and thunderstorms between 00Z to
06Z. Ceilings will generally be around 6000 feet or higher this
evening, but MVFR visibilities will be possible with any
thunderstorm.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

A lull in Small Craft Advisory conditions will be short lived as
southwest winds build once more this morning into Monday
afternoon. The highest waves will be north of Holland of 3 to 6
feet. Some isolated gales are possible toward Big Sable this
afternoon before winds fall below Small Craft Advisory levels this
evening. High waves will linger a few hours longer before dropping
below 4 feet prior to midnight.

Thunderstorms are expected this evening along a cold front with
winds shifting to the northwest behind the front. Winds and waves
are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through
the rest of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

A warm, windy, and dry airmass over the region will bring elevated
fire weather conditions for today. Wind gusts around 35 mph with
isolated gust toward 40 mph could cause fires to quickly spread.
Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
drop into the mid 20s across much of the area. There is a 20
percent chance for minimum relative humidity values to drop below
25 percent east of US-131 and north of I-96. Avoid activities with
open flames or sparks and avoid power equipment that create
sparks. Check for any burn bans in your local area.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 11 PM EDT this evening
     for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...RAH
MARINE...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...RAH