Dearborn, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

891
FXUS63 KDTX 141931
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
331 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonally cool temperatures persist this week.

- Dry Monday, but showers and storms return Tuesday
afternoon/evening and again Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night.

-Heaviest rainfall is expected Wednesday night, with widespread
amounts in excess of 1 inch possible.

- Windy conditions arrive on Thursday, with wind gusts potentially
reaching or exceeding 40 mph.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms and showers are exiting the Central Great Lakes, as
Mlcapes did end up exceeding 1000 J/kg over Wayne/Monroe counties
earlier, allowing for a few strong to marginally severe
thunderstorms. Much quieter weather will settle in for the next 24
hours as northwest upper-level confluent flow takes hold. A strong
shortwave will track through the Ohio Valley on Monday, but will
miss southern Lower Michigan entirely as a dry airmass prevails.

A deep upper-level low anchored over/near Hudson will dominate the
atmospheric pattern through the upcoming week. This setup will
maintain a persistent northwesterly flow aloft, keeping the
temperatures seasonably cool across Southeast Michigan. The primary
forecast challenges revolve around the timing of distinct shortwave
troughs pivoting around the main upper-level low.

Medium range models remain in pretty good agreement indicating a
good 1-2 punch of upper level support late Tuesday/evening,
and then again Wednesday evening/night. The Wednesday night system
looks to be the stronger of the two, bringing a heavy rain
threat (with totals potentially exceeding 1 inch) and
strong to severe thunderstorms. The 12z Euro indicates a
seasonably strong surface low tracking through central/northwest
Lower Michigan, which raises concerns for severe weather given
exceptional 0-6 KM bulk shear on the order of 65-75 knots.
Fortunately, the clean warm sector and deeper instability should
have difficult time pushing past the southern Michigan
border, with more of an occulded structure setting up.

This strong system slowly exits Thursday, leaving residual troughing
and cool northwest flow to keep low shower chances and below-normal
A temperatures through Friday. A tight pressure gradient and deeper
boundary-layer mixing on Thursday will support a windy day, with the
potential to reach or exceed 40 MPH per the Euro ensemble mean.

&&

.MARINE...

Showers and thunderstorms have exited into southern Ontario and the
eastern Great Lakes this afternoon as low pressure continues
eastward. The post-frontal airmass has also veered weakening
gradient winds north/northwesterly. This current lull in winds/gusts
fades tonight as slightly stronger lower column flow moves over the
waterways. This should mainly impact portions of Saginaw Bay and The
Thumb nearshores, with gusts approaching 25 knots. A Small Craft
Advisory remains in place through Monday morning. Drier conditions
take hold tonight and Monday as high pressure migrates across The
Southeast. This causes flow to flip southwesterly Monday night into
Tuesday, ahead of the next low and cold front. Expect showers and
storms to reach the central waterways by Tuesday afternoon with the
next wave. A brief break in activity ensues Wednesday, followed by a
secondary stronger system Wednesday night into Thursday. A higher
likelihood exists for more intense convection with the Wednesday
night system. Seasonably strong gradient winds will also accompany
the low, with gusts to gales possible Thursday, after mixing
profiles improve featuring 45-60 knot flow within the lowest 1-5 kft
layer.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

AVIATION...

The strong convection has pushed east of the area but light showers
remain over PTK and points southeastward. The rest of the showers
should come to an end around 19Z, leading to drier northwest flow
the rest of the afternoon. There continues to be a signal in the
hires models for a mid level trough and wrap around moisture around
this mornings low to initiate a few isolated showers later this
afternoon at least for MBS, FNT, and PTK. Will leave the prob30 for
now and adjust as needed. Skies will be a bit chaotic this afternoon
as multiple layers of clouds tied to the low push east. Once the
drier air grabs hold this evening should have a strong clearing
trend overnight. Some diurnal cu will be possible Monday.

D21/DTW Convection... Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight and
Monday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Moderate for ceilings at or below 5000 ft this afternoon. Low
  tonight.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Monday for LHZ421-422-441.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......KGK
AVIATION.....DRK


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.