Chesterfield, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

368
FXUS63 KDTX 141153
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
753 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures persist through the week.

- Scattered showers/thunderstorm chances this afternoon and evening.

- A Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms exists Thursday night
primarily between 11 pm and 3 am. Large hail and damaging winds will
be the main threats, although a tornado cannot be ruled out.

- Cooler and less humid weather is anticipated for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...

A lot of variability to the ceilings this morning as low pressure
continues to slowly rotate north into Michigan today. Will maintain
the greater prevailing MVFR ceilings with intervals of IFR through
this morning. VSBY reductions should be limited this morning as
denser fog signal did not materialize. Do not expect ceilings to
improve rapidly this morning, but it does appear conditions will
improve to predominately VFR for the afternoon. This afternoon will
see a greater chance for showers while diurnal instability will also
support some isolated thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening.

For DTW/D21 Convection... An isolated thunderstorm remains possible
this afternoon but with low predictability on timing and location.

THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling aob 5000 feet through today.

* Low for ceiling/visibility below 200 ft and/or 1/2 SM this morning.

* Low for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025

DISCUSSION...

Minimal convective coverage is seen on radar this morning compared
to last afternoon/evening as we move into the diurnal minimum.
Atlantic moisture continues to stream into the Great Lakes on the
eastern periphery of a cut off upper low, which has resulted in
chaotic cloud cover over the forecast area overnight. Areas where
clearing has taken place (generally south of I-94) have started to
see shallow fog development, whereas northern locations hang on to
the existing stratus deck through much of the morning before
breaking this afternoon. Convective coverage reinvigorates this
afternoon in the peak heating window with a similar flavor to
yesterday, although boundary layer conditions allow MLCAPE to build
above 500 J/kg. Scattered pulse-type showers and thunderstorms will
thus be possible this afternoon-evening.

The upper level circulation that has governed conditions for the
past several days will dissolve into the mean flow pattern today and
tonight. This allows existing easterly winds to gradually veer,
eventually settling out of the southwest by Thursday morning which
kickstarts a period of warm advection. H850 temperatures rise from
an average 13 C for the past couple of days into the upper teens by
Thursday. Daytime highs thus exhibit a marked warming trend
Thursday, into the upper 70s to low 80s.

A second upper low is noted on satellite imagery over the
Intermountain West this morning. This low will pivot and take on a
negative tilt as it tracks toward the Upper Midwest Thursday, driving
an existing thermal ridge/warm sector into the Great Lakes. While
boundary layer conditions become increasingly warm/unstable, a mid-
level dry slot works to cap the environment for most of the day. It
is not until the arrival of the system`s cold front late Thursday
night (roughly 11p-3a) that convection will eventually reach SE
Michigan. Convective initiation is expected to occur Thursday evening
over Wisconsin and grow upscale before crossing lower Michigan after
dark. By the time storms reach SE Michigan, they will encounter not
only the existing capping inversion but also a nocturnally cooled
boundary layer. Still, there will be plenty of elevated instability
to work with (MUCAPE around 2500 J/kg and mid level lapse rates over
7.5 C/km), which combines with strong/curved shear profiles to favor
large hail as the primary threat Thursday night. Should storms
maintain surface-based inflow, damaging wind gusts and/or an
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. SPC has designated a Slight
Risk for Thursday night across SE Michigan.

Despite the cold frontal passage Thursday night, temperatures on
Friday rebound into the low 80s ahead of a cooler weekend as the
upper low meanders into the central Great Lakes. Unsettled
conditions persist Friday-Saturday as the low wraps existing
moisture and nebulous forcing overhead.

MARINE...

A weak pressure gradient will maintain lighter southeast flow today
with continued bouts of isolated to scattered showers and some
embedded thunderstorms. The moist conditions over the cooler waters
of Lake Huron also will bring periods of fog with visibilities
ranging to or below 1 nm. Some improvement to visibilities will be
likely through the afternoon and evening before renewed chances for
reformation returns through tomorrow morning.

A warm front remains on schedule to pass over the Great Lakes late
tomorrow night into Friday, which will veer wind direction to the
southwest while gradually increasing wind speeds. Better organized
thunderstorm activity will be possible along the warm front, which
includes the potential for embedded stronger storms capable of
producing wind gusts to or in excess of 40 knots.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....AA
DISCUSSION...MV
MARINE.......AM


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