Chesterfield, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

824
FXUS63 KDTX 060936
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
536 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chance less than 40% for a shower or thunderstorm this morning
across the Tri-Cities and northern Thumb. Low chance (<20%) for a
shower for locations south by the mid to late morning hours.

- Breezy conditions starting this morning, ramping up through the
afternoon. Sustained winds of 20 mph, with gusts around 30 mph,
sporadic up to 35 mph.

- Dry through the middle of the week with temperatures slightly
below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions hold across the area this morning as pre-frontal
cloud cover crosses. Some near MVFR possible in the far north over
MBS but should vacate within the first hour or two of the new
forecast period. Main aviation impact today is stronger winds both
pre and post frontal. South-southwest winds this morning peak in the
20-25kt range as the backedge of the overnight LLJ begins to shift
east. Cold front then crosses late morning-early afternoon setting
up westerly flow in its wake. Efficient mixing particularly as skies
clear will allow gusts up around 25kts with some near 30kts possible
particularly toward FNT/MBS. Winds gradually weaken tonight as
surface high pressure starts to become established.

For DTW/D21 Convection... No convection is expected with the front.
Stronger westerly winds behind the front expected to hover right
around crosswind thresholds this afternoon-early evening. For now,
have kept the forecast just below the threshold however any
overachieve would reach or exceed that mark.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for a period of ceilings at or below 5000 feet this morning.

* Moderate for crosswind thresholds (~270-280deg) this afternoon
  into early evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

DISCUSSION...

Dynamic upper level trough complex with H5 heights of 540 dam over
northern Ontario will rapidly dig through Southeast Michigan this
morning. Orientation of the trough axis will result in the main
height fall region to extend well southeast of the low pressure
center. The net result will keep any chances for shower and
thunderstorm activity brief as it flashes across rapidly this
morning. Strong prefrontal warm advection is now taking aim over
eastern Lower Michigan through 15Z this morning. Main items through
midday will be the potential for gusty winds south winds of 20 to 30
mph and a very low chance for showers and thunderstorms invof
Saginaw Bay and the northern Thumb. Aforementioned warm advection
centered in the 800-700mb layer will introduce steep midlevel lapse
rates momentarily, but the significant limiting factor for convection
will be very dry air and a lack of moistening. Any convective
updrafts that develop this far southward are expected to be elevated
with bases at 9.0-10.0 kft agl. Look of the forecast soundings
suggests a very transient and short-lived convective updraft
potential due to narrow cape densities aloft. Latest regional radar
mosaic is lacking with activity and the latest Day 1 SPC outlook has
portions of Southeast Michigan designated as General Thunderstorm.

Low level thermal progs suggest a disjointed cold front structure
with initial cold advection occurring between 14-17Z, then stronger
secondary cold advection 21-03Z this evening. This really plays out
in the forecast wind directions today with prevailing due west winds
this afternoon, turning to the northwest tonight. High mixing
heights are modeled at upwards of 6.0 kft agl yielding high
temperatures in the middle to upper 70s. Based on the latest trends
of hiresolution models did increase land based wind gusts this
afternoon into the 30 to 35 mph range.

Strong upper level low pressure to the north of the Great Lakes will
lead to northwest flow conditions during the early weak period.
Forecasted MSLP charts keep the center of surface high pressure to
the southwest of the state through at least early Wednesday. There
are as many as 3 substantial lobes of absolute vorticity that are
forecasted to swing across Southeast Michigan. Low chances for lake
effect shower activity will exist across the northern cwa
particularly in the Thumb. Will continue to monitor PoP trends as
the current northwest flow trajectory is traditionally unfavorable
due to downsloping.

Surface high pressure and dampening ridge aloft will finally build
across the state during the middle to end of the week. Temperatures
are forecasted to run approximately 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
From this vantage point, frost looks like a good likelihood for some
areas Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

MARINE...

A Gale Warning is in effect for most of Lake Huron this morning. A
rapid increase in gust potential is expected toward daybreak as the
front sweeps through the region, with wind gusts peaking at 40 to 45
knots. This will be combined with remnant shower and thunderstorm
activity that developed over northern Wisconsin last night. Wind
direction will veer quickly to the NW as the front passes through,
and will diminish through the afternoon which allows the Gale
Warning to expire. That said, a weakening wrap around low level jet
and cold advection will ramp up wind gusts again to 30 knots over
northern Lake Huron. Forecast guidance continues to fall just short
of another round of widespread gales (frequent gusts of 30-33
knots), which is reasonable considering the quick dissipation of the
jet over western Lake Superior and Lake Michigan this afternoon.
Nonetheless, will need to closely monitor observations through the
morning for a potential extension or reissuance of the Gale Warning
across northern Lake Huron for Sun night-Mon morning. Upper level
troughing persists into early next week which will maintain
unsettled conditions.

FIRE WEATHER...

There is an elevated concern for fire weather over most of Southeast
Michigan this afternoon. Strong west winds are expected to develop
this afternoon behind a cold front with sustained values near 20 mph
and peak wind gusts reaching/exceeding 30 mph. Minimum RH values
this afternon are expected to range in the upper 20s to lower 30s
percent range.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ443.

     Gale Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for LHZ361>363-421-422-
     441-442-462-463.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....KDK
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......MV
FIRE WX......KDK


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