Pittsfield, Massachusetts 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

690
FXUS61 KALY 112335
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
735 PM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low will bring a mixture of rain and accumulating
snow tonight through Saturday morning with the greatest
accumulations over the higher terrain south and east of Albany.
Mainly dry weather returns Saturday night through Monday with
temperatures moderating back to seasonable levels. Another
system will bring a period of rain Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

- A late season accumulating snow is expected tonight through
  Saturday with the higher snowfall amounts expected across
  higher elevations.

- Winter Weather Advisories issued for portions of eastern New
  York and western New England from midnight tonight to 2 pm
  Saturday primarily for higher terrain areas.

Discussion:

As of 735 PM EDT...A deep upper level trough remains located
across the eastern US as a low pressure system continues to
organize off the coast of North Carolina. This low will track
north to northeastward off the coast tonight through Saturday.
Precipitation isn`t occurring in our area just yet, but can be
seen on radar imagery and surface observations beginning just
south of the area over the NYC area as light rainfall. Clouds
have expanded across the entire area with overcast skies in
place.

Precipitation associated with this system will gradually lift
northwestward across the region for tonight and through the day
Saturday. Thermal profiles will initially favor rain to start,
though wet bulb processes and dynamic cooling amid strong
vertical motions and mid-level FGEN on the northwest side of the
low will send thermal profiles cold enough for precipitation to
mix with and/or change over to snow overnight tonight. The
transition will occur first across the higher terrain but is
also expected to occur across many valley areas as well, but
later. Many CAMs suggest some translating bands of more moderate
to heavy snow could occur at times where snowfall rates could
reach one half of an inch to possibly 1 inch per hour. In
addition, a warm nose aloft could allow some localized pockets
of sleet and/or freezing rain/drizzle to mix in across portions
of the mid-Hudson Valley and western New England, but any mixed
precipitation accumulations will be little if any.

Widespread precipitation will continue Saturday morning, but
the combination of daylight, slowly warming surface temperatures
and a gradual decrease in coverage and intensity will result in
precipitation mixing with or changing back to plain rain
Saturday afternoon for many areas with valley areas starting
first, then higher elevations later, or tapering off. Pending
surface temperatures, some patchy freezing drizzle could across
across portions of western New England but once again very
little if any ice accretion is expected.

As is normal with late season events with borderline thermal
profiles, snowfall accumulations will be dependent on
temperature, elevation and precipitation intensity. Therefore,
snow amounts, including on non-paved surfaces versus paved
surfaces, could widely vary across the region. The greater
snowfall amounts will be favored across higher terrain areas
especially to the south and east of Albany where most of these
areas are under a Winter Weather Advisory. Lesser amounts, but
some coatings to around 1 inch or so, can also occur in valley
areas. If there is enough of a period of efficient snowfall
intensity, paved surfaces could even become slushy in the
valleys; otherwise, most of this accumulation will likely occur
on grassy and elevated surfaces.

Temperatures tonight fall back to the upper 20s to mid-30s and
only rebound to the mid-30s to lower 40s on Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- Trending drier with gradually moderating temperatures.

Discussion:

The coastal low will slowly depart to the east through the short
term period as the upper trough also departs and becomes
replaced with weak upper level ridging. Isolated to scattered
rain and/or snow showers or isolated pockets of drizzle/freezing
drizzle could continue in a few areas Saturday evening, but a
trend toward drier weather from west to east is expected into
Sunday morning, continuing into Sunday night. Lows temperatures
fall back to the upper 20s to mid-30s Saturday night then
rebound into the 40s and 50s on Sunday. Lows Sunday night fall
back into the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Message:

- Following a seasonably mild day on Monday, a frontal system
  will bring periods of rain Monday night into Tuesday, then
  breezy and cooler conditions and lingering mixed rain and
  snow showers into Wednesday.

Discussion:

Upper level ridging will start the week with a period of dry
weather and temperatures returning to near normal values (lower
50s to lower 60s). During Monday night and Tuesday, a frontal
system will cross the region. Mild temperatures will bring a
period of rain to the area mainly during Monday night. A
secondary front crosses the area on Tuesday which will bring a
breezy and cooler air mass across the region through Wednesday.
Moist, cyclonic flow amid an upper level trough will result in
lingering valley rain showers and high elevation mixed rain and
snow showers Tuesday into Wednesday. Tuesday will remain
seasonable prior to the passage of the front with highs reaching
the 50s to lower 60s except mid to upper 40s across the
Adirondacks. High temperatures fall back to the 30s and 40s on
Wednesday with lows both Tuesday and Wednesday night back in the
20s and 30s.

The trough departs Wednesday night with weak upper ridging
building into the region on Thursday with fair weather and
temperatures trending a bit milder than on Wednesday. The next
upper trough and low pressure system approaches by the end of
the week which will bring the next round of rainfall and
possible rain/snow mix for higher elevations.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Flying conditions are mainly VFR at the moment, but clouds are
lowering and thickening across the area. As a storm system lifts
up the mid Atlantic coast, light precip will be spreading south
to north across the overnight. It will begin in KPOU as early as
03z, but may take until 10z to arrive at KGFL. Precip may
initially begin as rain, but will transition over to all snow.
This transition may take longer for valley TAF sites, but should
be fairly quick at KPSF. Flying conditions will become IFR by
the late night hours or Saturday morning for both visibility
and ceilings for all sites. A steady period of precip, mainly in
the form of snow is expected on Saturday morning.

Precip may start to taper off by the late morning or early
afternoon hours, but flying conditions will remain MVFR for the
rest of the day due to lingering low level moisture.

Winds will light from a northerly direction overnight and will
become northeast at 5 to 10 kts on Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 30 kts. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 2 PM EDT
     Saturday for CTZ001.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 2 PM EDT
     Saturday for NYZ047-051-054-058-061-063.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 2 PM EDT
     Saturday for MAZ001-025.
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 2 PM EDT
     Saturday for VTZ013>015.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Frugis/Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Frugis