Pittsfield, Massachusetts 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

710
FXUS61 KALY 230834
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
334 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure just off the New England coast will keep our
weather unsettled through today, with breezy conditions, rain
and mountain snow expected. We will dry out with a mix of sun
and clouds Sunday and Monday, with our next system arriving just
before the Thanksgiving holiday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- Rain and mountain snow showers taper off by mid-morning

- Additional lake effect rain/snow showers in the Mohawk Valley and
  western ADKs late this afternoon into tonight

- Breezy with gusts this afternoon and tonight around 30-45 MPH

Discussion:
06z surface analysis depicted a vertically stacked low over the
Mid Atlantic, with another surface low positioned well off the
New England coast. Plentiful lift from CVA and moisture continue
to rotate around the low across eastern NY and western New
England, and was driving a band of rain/mountain snow currently
in place from the Mohawk Valley into southern VT. Heading
through the morning, this band of precipitation will continue to
move south and west across the region before gradually
diminishing with weakening lift. Higher elevations of the
Catskills, Greens and Berkshires above 1000 ft could see an
additional 1 to 3 inches of accumulation through 700 AM. While
the remainder of the day will feature plenty of clouds for most
(valley locations could see some breaks of sun with downsloping
winds), areas across the Mohawk Valley and western ADKs will see
an increased chance of POPs later this afternoon into tonight
(30-70%) with an approaching shortwave. This shortwave should
phase into the departing upper level low, with precip chances
diminishing later tonight.

Speaking of which, the surface low off the New England coast is
progged to deepen quite substantially today, dropping from about 992
hPa right now to around 970-975 hPa just off the coast of Nova
Scotia tonight. This deepening will help tighten the pressure
gradient across the area, with the 925-850 hPa jet strengthening to
around 40-55 kts across eastern NY and New England this afternoon.
With fcst soundings suggesting CAA aloft promoting momentum transfer
of winds aloft to the surface with shallow mixing, we should
have no trouble getting quite windy across the area beginning
later this morning. Latest probabilistic HREF and NBM suggests a
high favorability of winds out of the northwest gusting around
30-35 MPH in valleys (60-100%), with gusts around 40-45 MPH
possible at higher elevations of the Catskills, Berkshires and
Litchfield Hills (50-80%). These winds will persist into tonight
with little in the way of boundary layer decoupling.

Highs this afternoon will range from the upper 30s (terrain) to mid
40s (valleys), with lows tonight dropping into the 20s (terrain) to
upper 30s (valleys).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Continued breezy conditions Sunday with gusts around 30-40 MPH

- Lake effect rain and snow showers diminish Sunday morning with dry
  conditions through daytime Monday

Discussion:
Northwest flow and a tight pressure gradient will be in place
across our area for the start of the short term period. Any
leftover rain and snow showers from the aforementioned shortwave
should diminish by Sunday morning, with skies slowly clearing
out into Sunday night and Monday. While still gusty at around
30-40 MPH during the daytime, winds should begin to diminish
late Sunday into Sunday night with the approach of weak surface
high pressure from the southeast US. This high will keep our
weather dry Sunday night through daytime Monday.

Continued northwest flow and CAA will keep highs ranging from the
low 30s (terrain) to mid 40s Sunday, with overnight lows dropping
into the upper teens and low 20s (terrain) to near 30 (valleys).
Monday highs will be milder with a weak warm front accompanying the
surface highs, with values in the afternoon ranging from near 40
(terrain) to low 50s (valleys).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The period starts with a low pressure system tracking NE from the
central Great Lakes Mon night to just north of Lake Ontario by Tue
morning. This will be accompanied by a progressive open wave trough
aloft. This system looks to bring fairly widespread showers. QPF
should be limited to around 0.25-0.50" due to fast movement. With a
track to the north of our area, we will be in a pseudo warm sector
resulting in mainly rain as dominant precip type. There could be
some snow mixed in at the highest elevations in mountain areas.
Showers should taper off by Tue afternoon across much of the area,
except for the Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley where lake enhanced
rain showers will develop as a trailing short wave trough moves
through. As colder air starts to work in later in the day, rain
showers will likely change to snow showers in the Adirondacks.

Lake effect snow showers expected to persist Tue night into Wed with
light to moderate accumulation, although there is low confidence in
the exact locations this far out due to uncertainty in specific wind
directions. At this time it appears the most likely area would be
the SW Adirondacks with a W-NW flow regime forecast. Will continue
to monitor trends. Other than some upslope snow showers into the S.
Green Mountains, the rest of the area should be mainly dry with
temperatures cooling back down to near normal levels.

Attention then shifts to a potential winter storm in the Thu to Fri
time frame. As is typical this far out, there is little agreement
among deterministic and ensemble guidance. At this time, guidance
favors a progressive system with an open wave trough aloft. The
signal is there for a storm, but there is low confidence in the
track/intensity. As of now, the consensus is for a cyclone emerging
from the S. Appalachians NE off the mid Atlantic coast then tracking
SE of Long Island/Cape Cod and intensifying. Guidance varies from a
significant storm in our area to completely missing us to the south.
Will continue to monitor trends over the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06z Sunday...Another surge of moisture wrapping back
around from east to west from has resulted in rain re-
developing, especially from KGFL-KALB and eventually spreading
south to KPSF after 08z. The rain should taper off from north to
south at KGFL- KALB by around 10z and KPSF by 12z. Most of the
steadier rain should stay north of KPOU, although scattered
-SHRA may occur there so added mention of PROB30 through 12z.
Conditions are primarily expected to be MVFR through 12z,
although occasional LIFR cigs may persist at KPOU for the next
1-2 hours. Also IFR cigs may develop at KPSF as winds become
more north/northwest resulting in upslope flow there.

After 12z, mainly scattered -SHRA expected into the rest of the
morning with MVFR cigs at KGFL/KPSF and mainly VFR at KALB/KPOU
although some brief periods of MVFR cannot be ruled out. Cigs should
trend towards VFR during the afternoon as drier air starts to work
in.

Winds will initially be northerly around 5-10 kt early this morning,
becoming northwest and increasing 15-20 kt with gusts of 25-35 kt
developing by this afternoon.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.&&

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speck
NEAR TERM...Speck
SHORT TERM...Speck
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV