Salisbury, Maryland 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

824
FXUS61 KAKQ 202000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
400 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stronger cold front crosses the area tonight into Monday.
While scattered showers and storms storms are possible along the
front Monday, mainly dry weather is otherwise expected for the
week. This front should also bring a return to seasonable
temperatures and humidity for the middle portion of the week,
before temperatures and humidity again rise by Friday and the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 303 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- A much lower coverage of showers and storms is expected this
  afternoon. The best chance for an isolated storm or two is on
  the Eastern Shore this afternoon.

- Heat Advisory remains in effect from 11 AM-8 PM across
  portions of SE VA and NE NC.

GOES Visible imagery is highlighting partly cloudy skies withing
W/NW steering flow. With the lack of upper level support across our
area today, only a few showers have been able to develop across the
Northern Neck and MD Eastern Shore counties. Otherwise, the radar
remains mostly free of meteorological echoes. While temperatures
have risen into the upper 80s to lower 90s, they have not quite
reached the mid-90s as forecast yet, though there is still time.
Heat indices range from the upper 90s to lower 100s. A Heat Advisory
remains in effect for portions of SE VA and NE NC through 8 pm,
though with increasing cloud debris and low level cloud cover, this
may be able to be cancelled before then. Will continue to monitor
any trends in heat indices and temperatures over the next few hours.

The front that has been stalled north of our area has started to
slowly lift away from the area as the parent low across the eastern
Great Lakes region treks gradually to the NE. Meanwhile, a cold
front associated with the same low is approaching the area from the
NW. These two fronts will be the main triggers of convection today,
with the main focus areas of storms across the Ohio River Valley and
across the Northeast. Convection across our area will be limited
this afternoon, with the upper-levels not nearly as conducive for
thunderstorm development. CAMs are not particularly thrilled about
much activity other than potentially a few additional showers/storms
moving across the Northern Neck/Eastern Shore this evening and maybe
a few storms in our SW piedmont counties. SPC only has a sliver of
Marginal Risk that remains across the SW Piedmont counties to
account for any storms that may sneak in there this evening from our
NW. The environment still features PW values between 1.5-1.8"+,
with potentially modest CAPE values still in place across that
area this evening, so if any storms move into our western area,
they could become strong, but this is a very low-end threat.

Forecast lows tonight are in the low-mid 70s inland and upper 70s at
the immediate coast. The cold front will drop southward into the
area tonight. The drier air and cooler temperatures will not make
their appearance tonight, as the more modified airmass is lagging a
little behind the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 303 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Showers and storms are possible Monday, especially for
  western/southwest/southern portions of the area, as a cold
  front remains in the vicinity of the local area.

- Seasonable temperatures and lower humidity expected by
  Tuesday, along with mainly dry weather.

The front will gradually creep through the remainder of the forecast
area during the day on Monday. With the front sagging across the
southern portion of our area by Monday afternoon, a few isolated to
scattered storms will likely develop in this area, though it is not
looking nearly as favorable for severe storms as it has been over
the past week. With the front straddling the forecast area, there
will be a temperature gradient across the forecast area. On the
north of the front, areas will see highs in the mid to upper 80s
while areas south of the front will see highs in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. The front will fully move through the area overnight and
high pressure will build in behind it. The cooler and drier airmass
will finally arrive Monday night, and forecast lows across the area
are in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The front will be south of our
area on Tuesday and with the drier airmass in place, rain chances
are forecast to be 10% or less. Partly to mostly cloudy skies across
the southern half of our forecast area will gradually start to clear
out by the afternoon/evening hours. With mostly clear skies and
light winds forecast for the inland land areas on Tuesday night,
some radiational cooling is possible so low temperatures could be a
degree or two lower than currently forecast. Along coast, lower
70s are forecast as those areas are more modified by the warmer
water temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 303 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- A gradual warming trend starts Thursday, with hot and humid
  conditions again returning by the end of the week and weekend.

The drier airmass will remain in place through Thursday, keeping
rain chances and lower humidity in the forecast through then. Near
normal temperatures will continue through Wednesday, but will start
to rebound back to above normal by Thursday as upper ridging starts
to build across the area. Temperatures rising will happen in
conjunction with surface high pressure developing off the SE coast
bringing increasing low-level moisture and increasing humidity back
to the area, so heat indices will be back on the rise. Heat
Advisories could make a return as soon as Friday, but as of right
now look to not be needed until Saturday if the forecast holds. With
increased atmospheric moisture (PW values between 1.5-2.0") and
strong daytime heating, daily low-end rain chances will return to
the forecast this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Sunday...

Mainly VFR with SCT-BKN cu (and some high clouds as well), this
aftn. Isolated showers have developed across NE portions of the
FA, with a low chance of a shower/storm on the Eastern Shore
through ~23Z at SBY (maintained PROB30 for SHRA there).
Elsewhere, rain chances are 10% or less. Variably cloudy skies
become mostly clear after 00z this evening with light and
variable winds. As a cold front drops S into the area early
Monday, expect increasing mid level clouds with VFR CIGs from
5-10k ft possible. Winds also become NW and then shift to the
NNE on Monday, generally at 5-10 kt. A few showers/tstms are
possible Mon aftn, primarily SW of the main terminals.

Outlook: Dry Mon night through Thursday, but there could be
patchy ground fog and/or low stratus with localized flight
restrictions early each morning.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front drops across the waters late tonight into Monday
  morning. Marginal SCAs will go into effect for late tonight
  into early Monday morning with the associated post-frontal
  surge of cooler air across the waters.

- Winds remain elevated out of the E-NE Monday night through
  Wednesday but look to remain predominately sub-SCA. Seas do
  are expected to build to 3-4 ft Tuesday into early Wednesday
  across southern coastal waters.

- A period of elevated southwesterly winds is possible Thursday
  night.

Latest surface analysis depicted sfc low pressure over New
England, with a trailing cold front extended to the WSW to the
south of the Great Lakes back into the central plains. Westerly
winds average ~10 kt with gusts to ~15 kt across the local
waters this aftn. Seas are mainly around 2 ft, with waves mainly
around 1 foot over the rivers and sound, and 1-2 ft in the Bay.

The cold front still looks to drop SSE across the local area
waters overnight into Monday, with a northerly wind surge
likely late tonight through mid-morning Monday. However, the
pressure gradient remains rather weak, and the area of
significantly drier air has trended slower, staying to the N
of the waters through much of Monday. Will maintain the SCA
headlines for the Bay and lower James river Monday morning, but
overall, this will be quite marginal. Still expect a wind shift
to the N early Monday morning, but it will mostly average 10-15 t
with gusts up to 20 kt, and local in- house probs for 18kt
sustained winds have actually dropped off this cycle (now only
5-10%). There will probably be s somewhat stronger surge of NE
winds late Monday night into Tuesday, as stronger pressure
rises and a significantly drier low level airmass (dew pts in
the 60s) arrives from the N. Seas build to 2-3 ft Mon (and may
briefly get that high in the lower Bay as well).

Seasonally cool 1024+ mb sfc high pressure builds over New England
Tuesday/Tue night, before building south offshore of the Delmarva
coast through Wednesday night. NE winds average 10-15 kt N and
15-20 kt across the southern waters Tue into early Wed morning,
as a sfc trough is expected to sharpen over the Gulf stream off
to our SE, increasing the pressure gradient. Seas remain mostly
in the 2-3 ft range, building to 3-4 ft Tuesday through
Wednesday night across the southern coastal waters (seas could
briefly approach 5 ft over the NC waters Tue-Wed depending on
the strength of the sfc trough off the SE coast).

Rip Currents: A low risk of rip currents is expected through Monday,
but a moderate risk is forecast for the southern beaches Tue-
Wed.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ065-079-084-
     086>090-092-093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ630>632-634-638.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...NB
SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...LKB/SW
MARINE...LKB/MAM