Pikesville, Maryland 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

422
FXUS61 KLWX 160757
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
357 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

A strong area of low pressure will track across Atlantic Canada
through today. High pressure will build into the area for
Thursday and Friday. A cold front will approach from the north
and west this weekend before settling to the south by early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Upper trough axis will cross the area later this morning leading
to a strengthening inversion and less cloud cover than
yesterday. The pressure gradient will remain tight through
today leading to continued windy conditions, but the weakening
winds aloft and strengthening subsidence inversion will limit
the gust potential to 30-35kt (i.e. sub-advisory criteria).

Winds will subside quickly with sunset this evening as pressure
gradient relaxes and center of high pressure approaches from
the west. With the high settling overhead, clear skies, and dry
air mass, expect very chilly temperatures overnight into Thu
morning. New Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings have been
issued where the growing season has started.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

Height rises and sfc high pressure shifting offshore will lead
to a warming trend to close out the week. Conditions will remain
dry through 12Z Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A very complex flow pattern will evolve across the CONUS during the
long term period, leading to much greater than normal forecast
uncertainty.

Models are in reasonably good agreement that by Saturday morning a
positively tilted trough comprised of multiple shortwave
disturbances will extend from the Desert Southwest northeastward
toward the Upper Midwest. A cold front will reside along the
southeastern periphery of this trough, extending from the Southern
Plains northeastward through the Mid-Mississippi Valley toward the
Great Lakes. Surface high pressure will reside offshore, with upper
ridging in place across the Southeast. Such a pattern will favor
south to southwesterly flow on Saturday and well above normal
temperatures as a result. Current forecasts call for temperatures to
reach well into the 80s at lower elevations, with 70s in the
mountains. Skies will be mostly cloudy, and a few showers or storms
may be possible, especially across western Maryland and the West
Virginia Panhandle.

Thereafter, forecast uncertainty increases markedly, with both
deterministic models and their respective ensembles showing
considerable spread. This spread is illustrated well by comparing
the GFS vs the Euro and Canadian. The GFS maintains one coherent
trough, which progressively lifts northeastward over time, placing
us on the warm side of the system on Sunday, with a strong cold
frontal passage and much cooler air following for Monday. On the
other hand, the Euro and Canadian break the initially positively
tilted trough to our west into two pieces. The northern half of the
trough rapidly progresses to our east on Sunday, causing high
pressure to build to our north at the surface in its wake, and a
back door cold frontal passage to occur, leading to much cooler
temperatures on Sunday. The southern half of the trough is left
behind as a cutoff upper low over the center of the country, which
is subsequently picked up by a trailing trough. Southerly flow out
ahead of that system would lead to a warming trend early next week,
following cooler conditions on Sunday.

To further illustrate the uncertainty, ensemble members from the
GEFS, EPS, and GEPS show highs anywhere from the upper 40s to near
90 on Sunday, from around 50 to the lower 80s on Monday, and from
the low 50s to mid 80s on Tuesday. Along with that, there`s also
uncertainty with respect to precipitation. The current forecast
calls for low-end chances for showers each day, which seems
reasonable given the uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Gusty NW winds up to 35 kt and sct-bkn cigs 040-060.
Winds diminish tonight and shift to a southerly direction Thu
and Fri.

VFR conditions and south to southwesterly winds are expected on
Saturday. Forecast uncertainty increases substantially by Sunday,
but most outcomes favor VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...

Brief gale conditions are possible this morning 12Z-16Z before
subsidence inversion strengthens further and puts a cap on the
gust potential. Still, high end SCA conditions are expected
through 00Z tonight. Lighter winds are expected Thu into Fri.

Winds may approach low-end SCA levels in south to southwesterly flow
on Saturday. Uncertainty with respect to wind speed and direction
increases substantially by Sunday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Gusty west-northwester winds will continue today which allows
tidal anomalies to fall. No tidal flooding is expected the next
few days.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ008.
     Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ003>006-
     503>507.
VA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ028-030-
     031-036>040-050-051-053-055-056-501-502-505-506-526-527.
     Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ025>027-
     029.
WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for WVZ051>053.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ530>534-
     537-539>541-543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ535-
     536-538-542.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BRO
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...LFR/KJP
MARINE...LFR/KJP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR