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Essex, Maryland 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for 2 Miles WNW Essex MD
National Weather Service Forecast for: 2 Miles WNW Essex MD
Issued by: National Weather Service Baltimore, MD/Washington, D.C.
Updated: 1:30 pm EDT Aug 12, 2025
 
Tonight

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. South wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm  in the evening.
Partly Cloudy

Wednesday

Wednesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 4pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall.  Partly sunny, with a high near 90. Heat index values as high as 102. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.  Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Slight Chance
T-storms then
Heavy Rain
Wednesday
Night
Wednesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 2am.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. Calm wind.  Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Chance
T-storms

Thursday

Thursday: A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm.  Partly sunny, with a high near 89. Calm wind becoming northwest around 6 mph in the afternoon.  Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Slight Chance
Showers then
Chance
T-storms
Thursday
Night
Thursday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then a slight chance of showers between 11pm and 2am.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. Calm wind.  Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Chance
T-storms then
Slight Chance
Showers
Friday

Friday: A slight chance of showers after 2pm.  Sunny, with a high near 91. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Sunny then
Slight Chance
Showers
Friday
Night
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 71.
Partly Cloudy

Saturday

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 89.
Mostly Sunny

Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 71.
Mostly Clear

Lo 74 °F Hi 90 °F Lo 73 °F Hi 89 °F Lo 72 °F Hi 91 °F Lo 71 °F Hi 89 °F Lo 71 °F

 

Tonight
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. South wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Wednesday
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 4pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Partly sunny, with a high near 90. Heat index values as high as 102. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Wednesday Night
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Thursday
 
A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. Calm wind becoming northwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Thursday Night
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then a slight chance of showers between 11pm and 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday
 
A slight chance of showers after 2pm. Sunny, with a high near 91. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Friday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 71.
Saturday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 89.
Saturday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 71.
Sunday
 
Sunny, with a high near 92.
Sunday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 74.
Monday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 91.
Monday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 71.
Tuesday
 
A chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for 2 Miles WNW Essex MD.

Weather Forecast Discussion
922
FXUS61 KLWX 121735
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
135 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Heat, humidity, and diurnal thunderstorm chances will continue to
increase through Thursday as high pressure pushes offshore and a
weak front approaches from the Ohio River Valley. The front will
pass through the area Friday with high pressure returning for the
start of the weekend. Another front looks to cross the area Sunday
into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Temperatures have steadily warmed this afternoon, and will reach the
upper 80s to low 90s across the area. Morning stratus has broken
into an expansive cu field, with some spotty showers developing
along the terrain. Overall stability will keep rain chances on the
low end this afternoon, with most of the shower and thunderstorm
activity focused west of the Blue Ridge. A couple of showers or
thunderstorms could could pop-up near the Chesapeake Bay. Convective
activity comes to an end quickly after sunset, then mostly dry
tonight. Low temperatures will fall into the 70s for most areas,
with patchy dense fog and low stratus likely developing again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front begins to approach our area from the northwest on
Wednesday. As the surface ridge pulls further offshore, expect an
uptick in deeper moisture to the region. This creates an uptick in
shower and thunderstorm activity Wednesday afternoon, that could
linger into Wednesday night as the front pushes through before
stalling near or just to our south. A few strong thunderstorms are
possible, and given the precipitable water values near 2 inches,
some flash flooding threat will exist.

A summertime pattern persists through Thursday with heat, humidity,
and daily chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. A
potent longwave trough crosses through Quebec while the stalled
front across our south will be the focal zone for developing showers
and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and early evening.

Afternoon highs each day in the upper 80s to near 90F, with heat
indices in the mid to upper 90s to around 100F. Overnight lows will
be muggy in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak cold front dissipates across northern portions of the area
Friday into Saturday. Subtropical upper level ridging will
strengthen and persists through the weekend into early next week.
This will lead to a continuation of warm/humid conditions and
decreasing t-storm chances.

Not much of a change in the overall pattern for the upcoming weekend
and early next week. The subtropical ridge over the southeastern U.S
should strengthen/build with 500 mb heights hovering between 589-592
decameters per 12z GEFS/EPS output. Meanwhile, a weakening cold
front will drop through northern portions of the forecast area
Friday before washing out/dissipating into the upcoming weekend
ahead. This front will act as a focal point for a few spotty showers
and thunderstorms Friday afternoon along with a slight drop in
humidity. By the weekend, t-storm chances become more suppressed
with the building upper level ridge. Any convection looks to be
terrain based or relegated to the initiation of the bay/river
breeze. High temperatures Friday and Saturday should push into the
mid 80s to low 90s, with mountain locations in the mid 70s to low
80s. Low temperatures will fall into the low to mid 60s over the
mountains with mid 60s to low 70s further east toward the
Baltimore/Washington DC metro areas.

Sunday brings on more heat and humidity ahead of a encroaching cold
frontal boundary from the Great Lakes and northern Ohio River
Valley. High temperatures will climb back into the low to mid 90s
for most with heat index values hovering between 95-100 degrees. A
few spotty showers or t-storms cannot be ruled out especially over
the mountains and northern portions of the forecast area given the
amplified northern stream.

Slightly higher chances for diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm
chances exists for the early and middle part of next week. Current
12z deterministic and ensemble guidance, continues to show a fairly
amplified northern stream. Ridging high pressure remains over the
southeastern U.S with a secondary ridge over central and eastern
Canada. Caught in between the two upper level ridges is a decent
frontal zone extending over the northern tier of the U.S. Within
this frontal zone will be a series of fronts that will drop south
from the Great Lakes/Ohio River Valley Monday through Wednesday next
week. The first front looks to cross the area Monday before washing
out over the central and southern part of the forecast area Tuesday.
Another front will follow midweek. With the several fronts crossing
expect an uptick of shower and thunderstorm chances mainly during
the afternoon/evening hours. Any storms that we do see Friday into
early next week will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall,
frequent lightning, and gusty winds.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail today as most of the shower activity will be
west of the Blue Ridge. Patchy ground fog and low stratus is likely
to develop again late tonight, with MVFR to IFR conditions possible.
Some terminals, around CHO/MRB specifically, could get down to LIFR.
These low clouds will be slow to dissipate Wednesday morning.

Expect an increase in showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday and
Thursday afternoons. These could produce brief periods of sub-VFR
conditions at any terminal. Most of the activity should dissipate
in the evening each day.

A weak cold frontal boundary will lead to some temporary reductions
Friday afternoon and evening due to showers/thunderstorms.
Additional reductions are possible during the afternoon and evening
hours this weekend as the front dissipates nearby. Convection
overall will be fairly spotty this weekend given the strengthening
subtropical ridge overhead. Winds Friday will be out of the east and
southeast Friday into Saturday at less than 15 kts. Winds will
switch back south and southwest Sunday into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds are forecast to remain below SCA conditions through Thursday.
The main concern for mariners will be from afternoon thunderstorms
that return to the forecast Wednesday and Thursday. Special Marine
Warnings may be needed at times for strong gusty winds. A cold front
will also cross the area, though it will only bring a brief wind
shift.

Sub-SCA level winds will continue through the period. Winds will
remain light out of the east and southeast Friday and Saturday at
less than 15 kts. This is due in part to a dissipating frontal
boundary over the region. Winds will switch to the south and
southwest Sunday and Monday at less than 15 kts. Some southerly
channeling remains possible Monday into Tuesday over the open
waters, but overall confidence is low.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Elevated tidal anomalies look to continue through Wednesday given
the recent full moon and light winds. While minor tidal flooding is
not expected, some cycles could go into Action stage during the high
astronomical tides (especially at Annapolis and perhaps
Dahlgren/Alexandria).

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EST
NEAR TERM...KRR
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...EST
AVIATION...KRR/EST
MARINE...KRR/EST
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...EST
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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