Wells, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

118
FXUS61 KGYX 151525
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1123 AM EDT Tue Apr 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers move through in advance of a cold front today.
Temperatures will turn colder again along with gusty winds.
Cooler weather will prevail through Wednesday and even Thursday,
with mountain snow showers. By this weekend it will turn warmer
again, however that will come with increasing chances for rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1115 AM Update...Skies have cleared out this morning across NH and
some clearing is starting to work into western ME at this hour. Have
lowered sky cover across these areas this morning before it becomes
mostly cloudy again this afternoon. The added sunshine has also
allowed temperatures to warm up pretty quickly, and I have updated
hourly temps to reflect this along with boosting highs by a couple
of degrees.

Lastly, the clearing will add more instability for this afternoon as
lapse rates steepen, so I have cast a wider net with the slight
chance wording of thunderstorms, which will be capable of producing
sub-severe hail and gusty winds this afternoon as the cold front
pushes through. There is also plenty of shear, so it`s not out of
the realm of possibility of an isolated severe storm.

635 AM...The showers associated with slug of WAA are weakening,
and heading east, and I think much of the morning will be dry,
although some of the mesomodels hint at some sort of boundary
across SE NH and far SW ME, so an isolate shower here can not be
ruled out. But for the most part the best chance for showers
remains this afternoon.

Previously...During this morning, I think most places will stay
dry, and there may be even be some clearing in S NH, as the mid
level triple point moves along the intl border, and we get the
into the warm sector aloft, but it will probably break to the
sfc in the S, thus, the highs in the lower 60s there, while most
other spots will be in the 50s given more cloud cover, and the
mid- coast N into the ME mtns will only make it to the upper 40s
to around 50. This afternoon, we will start to see some energy
move equatorward of the 500 closed N of Toronto, and shift it to
the E as well as tilt it negative. This will allow secondary
low to develop near the downeast ME coast. This process will
allow for some mid level FG and will see showers increase in the
ME mtns and in E zones during the afternoon. Also, this
afternoon, the movement of the 500 MB low, will help push the
cold front the S half of the CWA which will bring another chance
of showers. In the S half of NH, where some sfc or near sfc
based will exist, along with some decent mid level lapse rates,
could some TSRA develop, and with FZ level dropping, cannot rule
out some small hail as well. Behind the front W winds pick up
and could get some brief higher gusts as well, maybe to 30 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The sfc low shifts NE as does the precip, but colder air will
begin to shift in, and could change the rain to SN over the mtns
late tonight. Also, as the low deepens over NB and the maritimes
tonight, pres gradient increases, and the W winds will become
more gusty this evening, although gusts look limited to around
25 mph or so. Outside the mtns things should clear out
overnight, but the mtns will shift into upslope flow regime, and
SHSN will increase in the upslope areas during the pre-dawn
hours. Mins range from low 30s in the mtns, to the upper 30s in
the S.

The gusty W flow continues during Wed, and 500 Mb trough will
help push secondary sfc cold front through during the afternoon.
This will produce an increase in SHSNRA activity in the mtns,
and bring a round of clouds toward S NH and the coast in the
afternoon. Highs on Wed will be cooler ranging from the low 40s
in the mtns to around 50 in the S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Long term evening update...No major changes to the long term
portion of the forecast at this time. The period will continue
to be headlined by quick warmups and cooldowns with significant
precipitation not currently expected.

Previously...

Key Message: Fairly typical spring pattern with no significant
weather anticipated.

Impacts: Main concern will be combination of dry days with
breezy conditions...but recent wet weather should mitigate fire
threat.

Forecast Details:

Trof axis does not really make it east of the forecast area
until later Thu. So another breezy day is anticipated with temps
very near or only slightly warmer than Wed.

Fri will be a bit of a transition day as a warm front approaches
from the southwest. NBM made a big shift in high temps
Sat...bringing widespread 60s and 70s in the local area. However
warm fronts often fail to breach the Lakes Region and often
result in heartbreak for those yearning for warmer days. The
upper air pattern is more favorable than normal for an advancing
warm front however...with building heights and surface high
pressure centered well southeast of the area. It is not a
favorable set up for sustained cold air damming. To give a
slight nod towards climatology I did blend in a bit of MEX
guidance to knock NBM temps down a couple of degrees.

On the precip chances...ensemble guidance is not especially
bullish on significant amounts. Not much of signal is present on
both ECMWF EFI and NAEFS percentile guidance. DESI cluster
analysis also shows a similar precip spread across the different
clusters. With surface low and front largely north of the
forecast area precip character would also tend to be more
showery. So while it could be wet this weekend...we may be able
to avoid a total washout.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...For today, conds stay predominantly VFR, but there
could be periods of MVFR in SHRA, especially this afternoon. The
exceptions will be KAUG and KRKD which will likely see more
frequent showers develop in the afternoon, and a period of IFR
into this evening. These two sites should improve after
midnight, while most everywhere else we be VFR, except KHIE
which is likely to drop to MVFR in upslope flow late this
evening. Also W winds pick up this evening, and could gust to
around 25 kt at times overnight. The winds persist into Wed, and
VFR expected everywhere but KHIE, which will be MVFR, with some
periods of IFR possible.

Long Term...Largely VFR conditions anticipated thru the end of
the work week. Upsloping winds may keep occasional MVFR CIGs
around HIE...with showers also confined mainly to the higher
terrain. By Sat a front will sag into the region and bring a
chance for lowering CIGs and precip. Some widespread MVFR or
lower conditions are possible. It will also tend to be a breezy
period...with Wed/Thu and again Sat featuring potential surface
gusts around 25kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...W winds increase behind a cold front this evening,
and SCA has been issued through Wed with gusts to 30+ kts at
times.

Long Term...It will remain breezy to end the work week...with
more gusty winds expected this weekend.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ151-153.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Combs/Cempa
SHORT TERM...Cempa
LONG TERM...Ekster/Legro