Waterboro, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

655
FXUS61 KGYX 310717
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
317 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A widespread, soaking rainfall will move through the region
during the first half of today. Rain could be heavy at times,
but overall it looks like a steady light to moderate rainfall.
The storm will wind down to showers Saturday night and showers
may linger into Monday before beginning to clear out.
Temperatures will also be much cooler Sunday into Monday. After
that we become warmer and drier as high pressure builds across
the Northeast for much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Impacts and Key Messages:
* Strong low pressure will bring a widespread soaking rain to
  the region, with total rainfall amounts generally 1-1.25",
  with locally higher amounts in the mountains and along the
  Connecticut River Valley.
* No flooding is anticipated due to the quick moving nature of
  the system.

No significant changes to the forecast in regards to our system
today, however I did bump up QPF a bit as a large area of
showers blossomed out ahead of the main precip shield overnight.
Rates have been light but some gauges in southwestern New
Hampshire show locations have picked up around 0.25-0.5 inches
since midnight. This system is still expected to be quick
moving, and radar has been verifying that, so even though some
areas got a good soaking early, flooding is still not
anticipated. In fact the latest NAM shows the warm air advection
band swinging through late this morning and early afternoon,
suggesting that by as early as 2 pm is when we could see the dry
slot start to pivot into Maine and Eastern New Hampshire. This
will also be the best chance to see convection and therefore, I
continued scattered thunder in the grids through the day. GOES
lightning detection has been showing this band contains plenty
of lightning as it`s pivoting through the Mid Atlantic now. The
more inland track of the low will continue to wrap showers
around into the western part of the state, and this was my
reasoning for bumping up QPF a bit there as well. If there is
any chance of a flood threat it would probably be along the
Connecticut River Valley late afternoon as showers pivot
overhead which could lead to some brief training of storms, but
again it`s a low chance. By early evening everyone else should
be fairly dry with some scattered showers still around. High
temperatures only climb into the 60s today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Impacts and Key Messages:
* No significant impacts expected


Tonight: Wrap around showers continue into tonight with the
main focus being across the north and along the western spine of
New Hampshire. The trend will be weakening rain rates as many
of our forcing mechanisms exit the area. This final push will
mainly be aided by a cold front that will sweep through behind
the exiting system. Latest hi-res guidance suggests this may
help blossom an area of light showers across much of the area
before everything begins to quickly lift north after midnight.
Skies clearing from south to north will allow temperatures to
fall into 40s, but a steady breeze likely keeps them from
tanking too much.

Sunday: Sunday looks cooler and breezy behind the front with an
upper trough over the area keeping a chance of showers in the
forecast. Latest hi-res guidance isn`t very excited about much
instability developing during the day Sunday, but cold air aloft
and daytime heating should still be enough to support brief pop
up showers. I would anticipate these to mainly be across the
north and higher terrain. The bigger story will be the potential
for gusty winds as forecast soundings show excellent mixing up
to around 800 mb where winds will be 30-35 kts. This would
support surface wind gusts 20-25 mph. High temperatures climb
into the mid to upper 60s south of the mountains, with mid- to
upper 50s to the north.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Evening Update: After a period of dry conditions through
Wednesday, next chance of widespread rain is later in the week.
This still looks to be frontal features that drape across the
Northeast Thursday, lingering into Friday, and then moving just
off the coast for Saturday. These features will be a focal point
for one or two waves of low pressure to advance along out of
the Great Lakes. Temperatures warm into midweek, with highs into
the 80s across the interior Wed.

Previous Discussion...
Overview...

High pressure begins to build in on Monday. The high continues
to build on Tuesday, along with a moderating trend. The highs
moves offshore by Wednesday, with a building warm airmass and
moisture for Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front then
approaches late in the week from the west.

Details...

High pressure builds in from the south on Monday, marking the
start of a multi day warming trend for next week. With WSW flow,
warmer temperatures likely reach the coast on Monday, before a
shift to a sea breeze late in the day. Highs are generally
expected to reach the 70s downwind of the mountains, with 60s
across the higher terrain. Some clouds are possible through the
first half of the day as the last of the trough exits, with more
sun by late in the day.

The warming trend continues through the week as the high
builds, and then shifts offshore Wednesday, setting up a more
synoptic southwesterly flow. Widespread 70s look likely for
Tuesday, and widespread 80s for Wednesday and Thursday. With the
high offshore, a stronger sea breeze would be expected along
the coast each day after a quick morning warm up. Humidity also
begins to increase by Thursday, with dew points in the 60s
looking increasing likely.

By late in the week, a cold front likely approaches from the
west. The progression of this front is still quite uncertain,
and still a week away. A strong ridge builds across the
Northeast by late in the week, and is unlikely to break down too
quickly with the approaching front. This leads to some spread
amongst the models on just how quickly it will move, or if it
even ends up arriving at all. Regardless of whether it arrives
or not, chances for showers and storms increase late in the week
in the moistening airmass, and warmer conditions are likely to
continue until the front passes. The one other feature to watch
by the end of the week and into the weekend would be high
pressure building from the north with the potential for a back
door cold front in the late week to weekend time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...Rain moves in early this morning and will mix out
any lingering fog, but today will still feature a mix of MVFR
and IFR ceilings as widespread rain moves through the region.
Thunderstorms are possible as this system moves through, but
they will be widely scattered if they develop at all, so
confidence is too low to include in TAFs at this time. Some low
level windshear is also likely at PWM and RKD with their
proximity to the low level jet. Ceilings will trend toward VFR
overnight tonight with VFR being the prevailing condition during
the day Sunday.

Long Term...Mainly VFR prevails early next week,
but nighttime valley fog will be more likely mid to late in the
week. Some marine fog will also be possible at RKD by Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...A coastal low pressure system will bring rain,
heavy at times, and scattered thunderstorms to the waters
today. Wind gusts and seas ramp up to SCA thresholds this
afternoon with increasing onshore flow. Elevated winds gusts and
seas will linger through at least the day Sunday.

Long Term...Marginal SCA conditions linger into Sunday night with
southwesterly flow behind the departing low, and lingering seas.
High pressure then slowly builds across the waters early next
week, and shifts offshore by midweek. SCA conditions will be
possible in increasing southwesterly flow from Wednesday through
the end of the week.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ151-153.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...Baron
LONG TERM...Clair/Cornwell