Presque Isle, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

744
FXUS61 KCAR 030550
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
150 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will approach later tonight, then lift toward the
Downeast region Thursday. An occluded front crosses the
region Thursday night into Friday. Low pressure will approach
Saturday, then cross the region Sunday. Another low will
approach Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
12:30 AM Update....Precipitation beginning in southwestern
Maine. Reflectivity shows precipitation in our forecast region,
but dewpoints are so low, so everything falling has been virga.
Pushed the precip start time back another hour or two to match
the current trends, until moisture starts to rise. Updated
precip types with minor edits to match current model runs and
temperature observations. Otherwise, previous forecast on
track.

Previous discussion... No changes to the Winter Weather
Advisories. High pressure will exit across the Maritimes
tonight. At the same time, low pressure lifting toward the
northern Great Lakes will draw a warm front toward New England.
The low will track northeast across Quebec province Thursday,
drawing the warm front toward the Downeast region. Retreating
high pressure will help establish low level cold air damming
across the region. At the same time, temperatures will steadily
warm aloft. With increasing isentropic lift, overunning
precipitation will expand northeast across the region overnight.
Based on critical thicknesses, expect precipitation overnight
mostly in the form of snow. However, the snow could begin to
transition to a wintry mix across southwest portions of the
forecast area late. The low level cold air will gradually be
eroded, from southwest to northeast, across the region Thursday
with warming temperatures aloft. This will allow snow to
transition to a wintry mix and eventually rain, from southwest
to northeast, across the forecast area Thursday. The wintry mix
will hold on longest across northeast portions of the forecast
area. Generally expect total snow and sleet accumulations
through Thursday to range from 2 to 4 inches, with up to around
a tenth of an inch of ice. Locally greater snow, sleet and ice
accumulations are possible across central portions of the region
along with the western highlands. Low temperatures tonight will
occur during the early morning hours then begin to slowly warm
overnight. Low temperatures will range from around 20 to the
lower 20s north, to the mid to upper 20s Downeast. High
temperatures will occur late Thursday. High temperatures will
range from the mid 30s to around 40 north, to the lower 40s
Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weakening low over Quebec will transfer its energy over to the
Canadian Maritimes during Thursday night. This will result in a
few more showers north of Katahdin during the night. Given warm
thermal profiles, most of these showers will be in the form of
rain. Though it will be dry near Bangor and Downeast, there will
be enough low-level moisture around for some patchy fog there.
Low temperatures Thursday night will be in the mid to upper 30s
from the Central Highlands northward. The Bangor region and
Downeast will see lows in the lower 40s.

High pressure will move eastward from the Midwest on Friday,
while low pressure strengthens near Labrador. This will result
in significant cold air advection on Friday aloft. The cold air
advection will be accompanied by breezy northwesterly winds
across the area. Thus, went a bit above NBM guidance for winds
on Friday. Also cannot rule out an isolated rain or snow shower
during the day Friday in the Crown of Maine. High temperatures
will only rise a few degrees on Friday from the Central
Highlands northward. Downsloping winds will allow a bit more
warming for Bangor and Downeast, with upper 40s for highs.

High pressure builds in closer to the area Friday night.
However, winds will take some time to diminish during the night.
Hence, full decoupling is not expected Friday night. That said,
decided to undercut NBM guidance for low temperatures somewhat.
Most places will see lows in the 20s.

A low pressure system will track into Quebec on Saturday, dragging
a warm front towards Maine. Warm air advection precipitation
will begin in southwestern portions of the area mid to late
afternoon. Initially, there may be enough boundary layer warmth
for p-type to start as light rain or a rain/snow mix.
Nevertheless, thermal profiles are cold enough that p-type will
become snow once steadier precipitation arrives. Northeastern
areas will likely remain dry until sunset or perhaps just after.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Snow with the aforementioned low pressure system will overspread
the entire region Saturday evening. Enough warm air will work in
to Bangor and Downeast during Saturday evening to cause snow to
mix with then change to rain. Snow will change to a wintry mix
from the Central Highlands northward late Saturday night.
Soundings indicate a period of sleet, then freezing rain is
likely. A couple of inches of snow and sleet could accumulate,
along with light icing, for central and northern areas. Snow
accumulations in the Bangor region and Downeast are expected to
be minimal at this time.

Steady precipitation is forecast to exit northern areas Sunday
morning. With the lightening of precipitation and daytime
warming, any leftover precipitation will change to plain rain.
Colder air works back into the area from northwest to southeast
Sunday night. Some models and ensembles show a second wave of
low pressure tracking through the Gulf of Maine during that
time. This could bring light snow to the Central Highlands and
North, and a light rain/snow mix for Bangor and Downeast.

Forecast confidence is low for late Tuesday into Wednesday of
next week. The 12z GFS and CMC models show a strengthening low
pressure system in the Gulf of Maine, tracking towards the Bay
of Fundy. These solutions would bring a substantial snowstorm to
much of Northern and Eastern Maine. The 12z ECMWF has the
system, but much weaker and further south. This would only bring
some light snowfall to the Bangor and Downeast regions Tuesday
night. Ensemble members show a significant spread regarding
accumulations at this time. Will continue to monitor and update
this part of the forecast as it gets closer.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM:

KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: VFR for the next few hours before
precipitation begins. MVFR/IFR conditions then develop later
this morning with developing snow. IFR/LIFR Thursday with snow
transitioning to a wintry mix, with freezing rain and sleet
possible at all terminals. Transitions over to rain by late
afternoon. Low level wind shear at all terminals late Wednesday
evening into Thursday morning. Light SE winds at 5-10 knots,
with gusts up to 30 kts this morning in northern terminals.
South/southwest winds later today at 10-15 knots.

KBGR/KBHB:VFR for the next few hours before precipitation
begins. MVFR/IFR conditions then develop later this morning with
developing snow. IFR/LIFR Thursday with snow transitioning to a
wintry mix, with freezing rain and sleet possible at all
terminals. Transitions over to rain by late afternoon. Low level
wind shear at all terminals late Wednesday evening into
Thursday morning. Light SW winds at 5-10 knots, with gusts up
to 30 kts this morning. South/southwest winds later today at
10-15 knots.

SHORT TERM:
Thursday night...IFR/LIFR conditions early with -SHRA North and
BCFG Downeast. Improving to MVFR/VFR late. Rain tapering to
showers by nighttime. Patchy fog at southern terminals possible.
Winds S at 5-10 kts, becoming W by daybreak.

Friday...Mainly VFR. Brief MVFR possible at Aroostook terminals
with VCSH and low stratus. Winds NW 10-15 kts, gusting 20-25
kts.

Friday Night...VFR. Winds NW 10-15 kts early, light N winds
late.

Saturday...VFR in the AM. Trending to MVFR in the PM with -SHSNRA.
IFR possible late at BGR. Light N winds AM. Winds SE 5-10 kts
PM.

Saturday Night...Mainly IFR or lower. -SN early, changing to -RA at
BGR and Downeast, and a mix North. Winds SE 5-10 kts, gusting
15-20 kts.

Sunday...Mainly MVFR/IFR with -SHRA. Some -SHSN possible at
Aroostook Terminals in the AM. SE wind 5-10kts becoming SW late.

Sunday Night-Monday...Mainly MVFR. IFR possible Sunday night
with -SN or -RA. Winds NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all the
waters late tonight through Thursday. A few wind gusts could
approach gale levels Thursday. Snow developing tonight. An early
wintry mix changing to rain Thursday.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will be above Small Craft Advisory
criteria through Thursday night. Conditions subside below SCA
levels Friday morning on the intra-coastal waters. Winds and
seas remain at borderline SCA criteria through the day Friday on
the outer waters, before subsiding Friday evening. Conditions
will be sub-SCA for Friday night and through Saturday. Winds and
seas build back above SCA criteria Saturday night into Sunday.
Winds diminish below SCA levels Sunday night, but seas remain
close to SCA levels through Monday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     MEZ001-002-005-006.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     MEZ003-004-010-011-031-032.
     Winter Weather Advisory until noon EDT today for MEZ015>017-
     029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 8 AM EDT
     Friday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...Brennan/Norcross
Short Term...Clark
Long Term...Clark
Aviation...Brennan/Norcross/Clark
Marine...Brennan/Norcross/Clark