Ellsworth, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

424
FXUS61 KCAR 230816
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
316 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track across Nova Scotia today, then exit
across the Maritimes Sunday. High pressure builds toward the
region Monday. Low pressure approaches from the west Tuesday and
will lift to the north of the area Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface and upper level low pressure will track northeast toward the
Canadian Maritimes today. Expect rain to increase across the region
today as moisture is drawn toward the region from the western
atlantic around the low. The rain may mix with snow at times today
across the North Maine Woods and higher elevations of far northern
Maine. A tight pressure gradient between the maritimes low and high
pressure across Labrador will result in a brisk north to northeast
wind today through tonight, with gusts up to 40 mph possible at
times through tonight. The surface and upper level lows will slowly
move east across the maritimes through tonight. Expect continued
mainly cloudy skies. Rain will mix with and change to snow
across northern areas this evening, as moisture continues to
wrap across northern areas. Some snow accumulation is possible,
with generally an inch or two, mainly across the North Maine
Woods and higher terrain. Across the Bangor region and Downeast
areas, mostly cloudy skies with a chance of rain or snow
showers tonight. Afternoon highs today will range from the
upper 30s to lower 40s across the north and lower to mid 40s for
the Bangor region and Downeast. Lows tonight will range from
the lower 30s north and mid 30s for Bangor and Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Low remains vertically stacked over the Maritimes on Sunday with
warm air and moisture continuing to wrap back thru the area. Rain
and snow showers continue acrs the north with less than 1/2 inch
accumulating over the higher terrain on grassy sfcs during the day.
Another windy day is expected on Sunday though not nearly as windy
as Saturday. NW winds will ocnly gust to 35 mph over the higher
terrain and downwind of lakes and agricultural areas. Cold advection
will continue on Sunday with high temps some 3-5 degrees colder than
Saturday.

Showers will end late Sunday night as snow showers across the north
with only a dusting expected near the St. John Valley. Upr low will
begin to lift into the North Atlantic as ridge axis approaches the
northeast with low diving into the Prairie Provinces overnight. With
clouds still hanging around under inversion and a well-mixed
atmosphere, low temps will be above normal Sunday night.

Ridge builds toward the CWA on Monday as temps rebound to above
normal for highs. Sfc high likely to crest over the region late
Monday night with mins dropping into the lwr 20s over the northwest
but still remaining above seasonal norms. By Tuesday morning
guidance brings deep H5 low into wrn portions of the Great Lakes
with H5 ridge axis shifting east into Canada.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Active pattern looks to be setting up for the long term with the
first system moving in fm the west. As the H5 low moves into srn
Quebec by 00z Wed, parent sfc low over QC with triple point low
along the Downeast coast. GFS, EC and CMC ensembles all point to
this soln. Depending on how strong secondary low becomes and where
it sets up will determine ptypes. For the time being have trended
twd NBM idea of rain over Downeast and a rain/snow  mix acrs the
north. As secondary low pulls north twd the Gaspe Peninsula colder
air works in behind and any lingering pcpn acrs the north will
likely transition to snow overnight.

Snow showers will continue acrs the north into Thanksgiving morning.
Thursday will see l/m 30s acrs the north and around 40F over
Downeast. A brief reprieve is expected thru Friday morning with srn
stream impulse heading out of the southeast U.S. Operational EC and,
to a lessor extent, the GFS including their respective ensemble
members all showing possible sfc low heading out of the mid-Atlantic
and northeast from there. Confidence is very low that this may be
the first nor`easter of the season. Have capped pops at hichc as
latest hemispheric CMC has it missing us to the south. Depending on
soln this may likely impact travel after Thanksgiving.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Widespread IFR/MVFR conditions are expected today in
rain at all terminals. For tonight, MVFR/IFR conditions expected
at the Aroostook terminals in a rain/snow mix. For KBGR/KBHB,
MVFR early, then becoming VFR overnight. N to NE wind 10 to 20
kt gusts up to 35 KT, becoming N to NW through tonight. LLWS
expected at the Aroostook terminals through midday.

SHORT TERM:
Sunday-Sunday night...VFR/MVFR over Downeast terminals, possible
MVFR/IFR in snow showers over nrn Aroostook terminals. NW 10-20
gusting to 30-35kts.

Monday-Monday night...MVFR over nrn terminals early but mainly VFR
by afternoon. NW 5-10kts and gusty Monday, becoming light W
overnight.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...MVFR becoming IFR in light snow across the
north. MVFR Downeast in rain. SSE 5-15kts Tuesday, becoming SW 5-
10kts Tuesday night.

Wednesday...Becoming VFR Downeast terminals. MVFR/IFR north in
light snow showers. W 5-15kts and gusty.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Gale Warning remains in effect for the waters through
tonight. Expect wind gusts as high as 40 kt and seas up to 8
feet across the outer waters.

SHORT TERM: Gale warning in effect through at least Sunday evening
though will likely need to be extended over the outer waters
into Monday morning. SCA likely to be needed for intracoastal
Sunday night and for a few hours Monday morning over the outer
waters. Seas expected to drop off around noon on Monday and remain
below 5ft into Tuesday evening. Cannot rule out marginal gale force
winds on Wednesday in wake of secondary low developing near the coast.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST Sunday for
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...TWD
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...TWD/Buster
Marine...TWD/Buster