Ellsworth, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

448
FXUS61 KCAR 050046
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
846 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
-Updated Beach Hazards Statement and Key Messages.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Near normal, to slightly above normal level, temperatures
with lower humidity Sunday through early next week.

2) Increasing heat and humidity mid to late week with a return
of daily shower and thunderstorm chances.

3) A Beach Hazards Statement was issued for Sunday for the
dangers of cold water temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Near normal, to slightly above normal level,
temperatures with lower humidity Sunday through early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
High pressure will build across the region tonight through
early next week. Temperatures will be at near normal, to
slightly above normal, levels Sunday through early next week.
Less humid conditions will also occur Sunday through early next
week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Increasing heat and humidity mid to late week
with a return of daily shower and thunderstorm chances.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Return flow starts to set up by later Wednesday into Thursday in
response to ridging well offshore and an incoming mid/upper
level trough swinging across Quebec. Precipitable Water Values
start to increase Thursday ahead of the trough to over 1.5
inches per the Operational GFS, which may support some healthier
rainfall totals. While some scattered showers and thunderstorms
are possible Thursday, the better chance looks to be Thursday
night into Friday night as the trough axis gets closer and
better lift and upper support is around to increase the coverage
and odds of shower and thunderstorm activity. Based on the
latest timing of the Operational Models, things should dry out
by next Saturday and grids reflect this.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A Beach Hazards Statement was issued for Sunday
for the dangers of cold water temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 3...With the Holiday Weekend and extra crowds at the
coast, the threat of hypothermia due to cold water continues on
Sunday. Even though air temperatures will not be as warm as the
last few days, the potential will still be there given how cold
the water is and the increased crowds. Remember to use a life
jacket if on any watercraft!
&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tonight...Generally VFR. Potential for an isolated shower or
thunderstorm possible across northern areas during the evening.
Variable conditions with any patchy fog overnight. NW winds
5-10 kts, with some gusts to 20kts possible this evening. Winds
relax overnight.

Sunday...Variable conditions with any patchy fog early.
Otherwise, VFR. N winds 5-10 kts, becoming variable. Winds begin
to shift S in southern terminals by Sunday evening.

Sunday night...Variable conditions with any patchy fog
overnight. Otherwise, VFR. Light and variable winds.

Monday-Monday night...VFR. Light and variable or near calm
winds, with a S wind sea breeze developing at southern terminals
Monday afternoon.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR, though may see MVFR BHB and coastal Downeast
terminals in -shra. S winds 5-15kts in the afternoon.

Tuesday night-Wednesday...Mainly VFR, though may see MVFR/IFR
Downeast terminals in fog late Tue/early Wed. S winds 5-10kts.

Wednesday night-Thursday...MVFR possible at northern terminals
in some scattered showers, otherwise VFR. SW winds 5-10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight through
Sunday night.

Seas and winds will remain below small craft levels through the
middle of next week. Seas will begin to climb toward 5ft 25-60NM
Tuesday evening with wind gusts between 5-15kts. Patchy fog will
reduce visibilities over the waters at night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Sunday through Sunday
     evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTS/CN/JMM
AVIATION...ASB/CN/JMM