Eliot, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

345
FXUS61 KGYX 232004
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
304 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will slowly move NE through the Canadian Maritimes
through Sunday night. High pressure briefly builds in for
Monday. A quick hitting system crosses Tuesday bringing wintry
precipitation across the north and mainly rain south of the
foothills. Brief high pressure crosses southern New England late
Wednesday into Thursday. The next low pressure system tracks
from the Ohio Valley towards New England late Thursday into
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Moist easterly flow has largely been confined to the upper levels
across the forecast area. Closer to the surface winds have turned
northwesterly and downsloping is already occurring southeast of the
White Mtns. Overcast is breaking up across NH...and that will slowly
creep northeast into ME this evening. Rain will be most likely near
Penobscot Bay...closer to the main forcing from the low pressure
over Nova Scotia. Upslope showers will also be likely along the
northwest facing slopes of the higher terrain. Otherwise I do not
anticipate much more than a sprinkle or flurry downwind of the mtns
thru the overnight. Winds remain breezy to occasionally gusty
overnight so I have blended in raw 2 m temps to keep min temps up
slightly.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The region will remain under the influence of Maritime low pressure
Sun. Forecast winds at 925 mb are fairly similar to today...but
perhaps we get a little deeper mixing Sun. The result will be more
widespread and more consistent gusts up to 30 or 35 mph. The deeper
mixing will also allow inversion to lift above the ridgeline and
Froude numbers are forecast to approach at least 2. I expect some
upslope precip to hold together downwind of the mtns. However I do
not expect it to be very heavy...so I have mainly added
sprinkles/flurries. The low levels are fairly dry so wet bulb temps
will be pretty close to freezing. I suspect more flurry than
sprinkle out of any upslope precip.

CAA will continue on the backside of low pressure. A steadily
falling temp is expected Sun night. Once again I blended raw 2 m
temp guidance into the min temp forecast to prevent any radiative
effect from showing up.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Overview:
Confidence is increasing in the development of an upper level
flow pattern that will deliver cold air into the central and
eastern CONUS starting around the middle of next week. Recent
runs of global ensembles have been showing strong ridging
building from eastern Siberia across Alaska into western Canada
associated with a -WPO and -EPO. Meanwhile, the NAO is projected
to turn more negative the second half of the week favoring a
storm track along the East Coast. Before the aforementioned
pattern comes to fruition, northern New England will be poised
to receive widespread precipitation from a short wave swinging
across the region Tuesday. Colder air will move in behind this
system with global models suggesting a more robust system
tracking near the Northeast coast around Friday. This late week
system will involve the phasing or non phasing of northern
stream and southern stream energy leading to large variance and
uncertainty in model solutions.

Impacts:
*Wintry precipitation in the foothills to points north could bring
slick travel Tuesday.

*Low pressure tracking near the Northeast late Thursday and Friday
could bring wintry precipitation to the region. Large variance and
uncertainty with this system will likely continue for several days,
but there is potential for impacts to travel during a time of high
travel volume.

Details:
Low pressure in the Canadian Maritimes lifts northeastward Monday
morning with a short wave ridge moving into New England Monday
evening. This will allow for fair weather with decreasing winds.
Highs on Monday will range from the mid 30s north to upper 40s south.

A short wave trough swinging through the Great Lakes Monday night
will spawn a surface low that tracks towards the St Lawrence Valley
Tuesday. Several models solutions within the 12Z suite suggest a
secondary coastal low will spin up in the Gulf of Maine Tuesday.
Overall, this looks to be a quick hitting system with QPF around 0.5
inches. On the other hand, precipitation types are tricky depending
on how cold the area can get Monday night and the timing of
precipitation onset Tuesday morning. Model soundings suggest that
areas from the foothills northward could see a period of wintry mix
Tuesday morning around the time of the morning commute with mainly
rain along the coastal plain. Depending on the strength of the
coastal low, temperatures will rise above freezing south of the
mountains Tuesday morning with rain becoming the dominant
precipitation type. This system exits Tuesday night with upslope
snow showers continuing in the mountains into Wednesday morning.

High pressure slides across southern New England late Wednesday
and Thursday morning for mostly dry conditions. Global models
and their ensembles suggest a robust area of low pressure will
track from the Ohio Valley to the East Coast late Thursday and
Friday. One of the sources of this system is currently offshore
the Pacific NW and the other can be traced back to the Bearing
Sea. The phasing or non phasing of these features has produced
run to run and model to model variance in this system. Ensembles
loosely cluster a track along the southern New England
coastline that would favor widespread wintry precipitation
across the area centered on Thursday night into Friday. It will
likely take several days to iron out the evolution of this
system, but it will be one worth watching giving the elevated
travel around the holiday.



&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...CIGs continue to improve for most areas as winds become
northwesterly. There remain areas of MVFR CIGs...but these are
largely expected to lift or scatter out this evening. The one
exception will be northwest of the mtns into the Upper
Valley...where upsloping winds will keep MVFR CIG possibly thru Sun.
SHRA/SHSN are most likely around HIE thru the overnight...and local
IFR is possible if ptype is mostly SN. Surface gusts around 25 kt
are expected at all terminals thru Sun...except at HIE where cloud
deck will limit mixing.

Long Term...Mainly VFR Monday into Monday night. Cigs thicken
and lower early Tuesday morning with a brief wintry mix possible
from KLEB to KAUG and points northward before changing to rain
with all rain across the south. This will likely result in MVFR
to IFR Tuesday. Conditions improve Tuesday night into Wednesday
with VFR likely into Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Gusty winds continue over the coastal waters thru most of the
evening Sun. Low end gale force gusts over most waters will continue
into Sun. The exception will be Casco Bay where fetch is just not
long enough and winds not strong enough to generate consistent gale
force gusts. Winds begin to diminish later Sun...but SCA conditions
linger over all waters into Mon morning.

Long Term...NW winds likely continue SCA conditions Monday
morning with winds and seas dropping below SCA thresholds Monday
afternoon into Tuesday morning. Low pressure tracking west to
east across New England into the Gulf of Maine will bring a
return of SCA conditions Tuesday into Thursday morning.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ150>152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ153.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Legro
SHORT TERM...Legro
LONG TERM...Schroeter