Shreveport, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

513
FXUS64 KSHV 141156
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
556 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1221 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

 - Warm air and moisture advection continue to expand across the
   region along an advancing warm front, further increasing S/SE
   flow overnight through the day on Saturday.

 - A neutral to positively tilted upper-level trough will support
   an increase in showers and thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon
   and evening with a low-end severe and flash flooding threat.

 - The trough and associated Pacific cold front will exit the area
   by Sunday morning with a gradual warming trend and dry weather
   expected through much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1221 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

This forecast period will be very front-loaded in terms of most
significant weather impacts occurring early on within the first
24 hours before trending much more benign and uneventful beyond
today and tonight. The unseasonably warm temperatures and muggy
air mass in place are the result of a warm front that has managed
to overtake the majority of the region, maintaining upper 50s to
lower 60s overnight while dew points also continue to increase
closer to the ambient temperatures. This is all occurring ahead of
an upper-level trough ejecting E/NE from the Desert SW of southern
AZ/NM near the border with Mexico. The resulting SW flow aloft in
advance of the upper trough will allow for increasing deep-layer
moisture, combining the Pacific fetch with surging Gulf moisture.

As a result, some isolated to scattered showers will be possible
mainly across our NW zones prior to daybreak through much of this
morning before more widespread convection and a threat of severe
weather increases by this afternoon and evening. The area of most
concern with respect to severe thunderstorms will generally remain
along and especially south of the I-20 corridor due to instability
limitations farther north. Even then, MUCAPE values are generally
less than 500 J/kg in our southern zones while both deep-layer and
low-level shear parameters are quite steep. Given the low CAPE and
high shear environment, storm mode is expected to gradually evolve
from clustered thunderstorms our to our west into more of a linear
complex/loosely organized QLCS through the afternoon across East
TX. The QLCS may become slightly more organized as it shifts east
into SW AR and NW LA this evening, while maintaining an isolated
damaging wind threat along with an embedded tornado threat owing
to the strongly sheared environment.

In addition, very heavy rainfall rates along the intense line of
convection may result in a localized flash flooding threat, with
urban areas most at risk. On average, rainfall amounts are likely
to range between 1-2 inches for most locations as isolated higher
totals are also possible, mainly along and north of I-30. Severe
and flash flooding threats should begin to gradually wane around
or shortly after midnight for the entire region as some residual
light precipitation and isolated thunderstorms may linger through
daybreak Sunday morning before all the convection eventually exits
the area by mid to late morning.

Milder temperatures will only briefly last into early next week
before a gradual warming trend commences as high temperatures
surge back into the 70s and lower 80s by the middle of next week.
In addition, dry weather is expected to prevail throughout much of
the week which is likely to result in worsening drought conditions
in spite of this weekend`s expected rainfall.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

For the 14/12z TAF update...Aside from some decent conditions this
morning, there will be no Valentine`s VFR for today and for sure
no heart-shaped clouds in the airspace above our terminals for
this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
across the region by early this afternoon and move southeast
through the region into the evening and early overnight hours. As
such, we have mention of SHRA, TSRA, RA and more with VFR CIGs
throughout the majority of this period. Main thing will be exact
timing, thinking what we have mentioned is a good representation
of the most expected arrival time, but this could change some as
things start to develop later this morning. Overall, looks like it
will be a messy day when it comes to flight conditions. /33/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1221 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Spotter activation may be needed later this afternoon through
tonight with the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms and
flash flooding.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  59  68  50 /  70 100  20   0
MLU  74  60  70  50 /  40 100  70   0
DEQ  66  53  65  40 / 100 100  20   0
TXK  71  59  68  47 /  90 100  30   0
ELD  71  56  67  45 /  70 100  50   0
TYR  71  57  65  47 /  90 100   0   0
GGG  72  56  67  47 /  90 100  10   0
LFK  73  56  68  50 /  80  90   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...33