Prairieville, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

681
FXUS64 KLIX 210454
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1154 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

"Cold" front currently extends from low pressure centered over
Iowa through MO, AR, and into eastern TX. As an upper level
disturbance swings around the southern periphery of a larger
scale trough, it will force the front southeastward through this
evening. However, by later tonight, the disturbance will lift
northeastward and upper level flow will become parallel to the
boundary and it will slow to a crawl as it approaches the coast.

There won`t be much fanfare with the front given the best forcing
is well to the north of the local area. However, most CAM guidance
does suggest at least isolated showers and storms moving into
northern portions of the area late this afternoon into this
evening as the front approaches before dissipating by midnight.

With the front stalled near the coast tomorrow, it should serve as
a focus for additional isolated to widely scattered showers and
storms, mainly across areas along/south of the I-10 corridor.

Regarding temperatures, don`t get too excited. Even though it`s a
cold front, temperatures will still be warmer than normal in its
wake. The biggest difference is that dewpoints will drop 5-10
degrees depending on location so it`ll feel a little more
comfortable.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday night)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Thursday and Friday will be a general repeat of Wednesday but
with isolated to scattered showers and storms mainly offshore as
the residual boundary sinks into the northern Gulf. Temperatures
will rise into the lower 90s but won`t be too oppressive as
dewpoints remain in the 60s.

By Saturday the old front will surge northward again as a arm
front, bringing a gradual increase in low level moisture to the
area, with dewpoints rebounding into the 70s most places. This
will also mark a transition to a somewhat typical summertime
pattern as even in the absence of any large scale forcing, diurnal
heating should be enough to fire off isolated to scattered showers
and storms by Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will remain warmer
than normal, with overnight lows back in the mid 70s across much
of the area by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Weak front continues to move into the area. While there were a few
stronger cells during the late evening hours across the far
northwestern parts of the area, those continue to wane and are
not currently expected to affect any of the terminals. Ceilings
will lower as we go through the morning hours and rain chances
will increase slightly again by the late morning hours and into
the early afternoon. That said, some short term models are not
showing as much in the way of shower and thunderstorm activity.
Due to this, opted to only go PROB30 at the southern terminals
and left it out for now of the more northern terminals. This may
need to be adjusted depending on the progress of the front.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Exercise caution headlines remain in effect across most of the
coastal through at least this afternoon, and into the first part
of tonight for some of the eastern waters. Winds will ease late
tonight and Wednesday morning as a weak frontal boundary stalls
near the coast. This will result in generally light and variable
winds Thursday and Friday. The front will move back to the north
by Saturday causing winds to once again become southeasterly,
strengthening to 10-15 kts. The front could also result in
isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday
and Thursday. Should any storms develop over the waters, winds and
waves could build quickly in response.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  89  64  91 /  30   0   0   0
BTR  73  90  69  92 /  20  10   0  10
ASD  73  89  68  90 /  20  30   0   0
MSY  77  88  74  90 /  10  40   0  10
GPT  75  88  69  88 /  20  30   0   0
PQL  73  89  65  89 /  20  30   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...SO
MARINE...DM