Opelousas, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

557
FXUS64 KLCH 070642
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1242 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flow off the Gulf will continue a fetch of warm moist air, and
possible near-record high temps will continue into at least
Saturday.

- Extensive frontal system sags into the ArkLaTex on SAT and SUN
bringing with it widespread showers and thunderstorms.

- Slight Risk for severe and flooding weather SAT afternoon and
overnight. Risk decreases SUN with only a Marginal Risk (1 of 4) for
flooding rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Monday night) Issued at 1230 AM CST
Sat Mar 7 2026

Forecast is progressing as expected with upper longwave trof
extending from west of the Baja, northeastward across the northern
Plains States. Already, analyzed pressure fields along the PacNW are
beginning to tighten and polar jet max will be zipping through this
region sometime tonight. As anticipated, upper low will close off at
the trof base and remaining trof will lift out late Saturday.
Ongoing surface boundary situated beneath the trof will sag
southeast throughout the day Saturday before hanging up into Sunday.

There are some streaming showers still ongoing across CenLA at this
hour, with only a breeze and strato cu deck to be seen elsewhere.
Expansive low level nocturnal jet is developing across the ern one-
third of the US, spanning from the Ohio Valley southwest into east
Mexico. While 30 to 40 knot winds exist about a mile off the
surface, that`s where they`re set to stay without a forcing mech to
bring those gusts to the sfc. Rather, we`ll keep a pleasant breeze
overnight.

This low level jet will set the stage for two distinct possibilities
on Saturday. Warm layer advects nwd overnight with the 850 mb layer
seeing a roughly 30 percent decrease in RH from 00Z/6 PM tonight
until 15Z/9 AM tomorrow. Now, either this layer holds steady through
the day, capping off daytime convection until the boundary arrives
late in the day, or it erodes quickly during the mid morning, with a
period of rapidly growing strong storms to develop ahead of the
boundary moving in.

A slug of moisture from the west Gulf is slated to advect inland
around to just after noon, further invigorating the warm layer as
daytime heating takes place. Most, if not all, CAMs are picking up
on the erosion of the 850 cap by roughly 18 to 20z. If this occurs
within the established warm sector of roughly 15 to 1800 J/kg MLCAPE
and 6.8 to 7.1 C/km lapse rates, any updrafts could quickly realize
into rapidly growing updrafts capable of growing hail 1 inch or
greater. If this scenario takes place and there are multiple
updrafts/storms near to one another, as the environment becomes more
unidirectional from noon to evening, updrafts would likely congeal
into a cluster of southwest to northeast moving showers and storms
with heavy downpours.

The area between HWY190 and the Lakes area would be the closest to
watch for cell development and subsequent corridor of heavy rainfall
during the afternoon and early evening hours, before the front
arrives.

The other scenario... The cap hangs on (which is what we see
frequently!) and no afternoon convection develops. The warm sector
streams inland, warming and priming under daytime heating until the
boundary arrives from the north around 4 to 6 PM. The boundary
should light up the further southeast it moves as it enters the
warm, unstable airmass. Once again, the wind profile becomes
unidirectional during the afternoon and the boundary slows into the
evening / overnight hours with no trof to keep its movement into the
north Gulf.

As far as heavy rainfall parameters, we`re currently sitting with
PWATs in the 90th percentile with an expectation of daily max PWATs
arriving with the AM moisture slug. This, combined with parallel
flow will make for heavy downpours along a traintrack of flow.

So it`ll either be afternoon cells firing off with a 1 to 2 hour
period of severe risk before transitioning to a corridor of heavy
rainfall in the afternoon and early evening before another round of
showers and thunderstorms with heavy training rainfall in the late
evening to overnight hours with the actual boundary arrival, OR
it`ll be an eerily quiet, hot and humid day until the boundary
arrives in the evening in the form of a very active extensive line
segment of very heavy showers and thunderstorms from sundown thru
early Sunday.

As always, make a way to receive warnings in overnight risks. If
you`re out and about tomorrow, keep an eye on the weather. And if
you find yourself outside and hear thunder, GO INDOORS.

11/Calhoun

&&


.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Winds have increased somewhat after sundown, which was not
expected. Winds should come down thru sunrise with a steady
increase thereafter and fall after 20z. The strongest gusts this
forecast period, away from any storms, will be from roughly 13 to
20z. Wind speeds will diminish after 18z as the responsible jet
leaves the region quickly.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop over terminals
from mid day onward in response to the approaching front. There is
some split in confidence if cells will develop in the afternoon
along I-10 before the front arrives in the evening. There is a
high enough confidence to include prob30s for TS in this time
frame before the big slug of showers and storms arrive with the
front late in the evening. Greatest hazards with strong storms
will be very large hail, heavy downpours and damaging wind gusts.

11/Calhoun

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1230 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Onshore winds will prevail ahead of an approaching frontal system
Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms with large hail,
frequent cloud to water lightning and heavy downpours may develop
over nearshore waters in the late afternoon. The boundary will send
widespread showers and storms across the north Gulf from late
Saturday through Sunday. Heavy downpours and embedded storms with
lightning and gusty winds will be the primary concern overnight into
Sunday.

The next weather system moves into Texas early in the week and a
prolonged period of building winds and seas is expected Monday thru
the midweek.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1230 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Elevated southeast breeze will prevail overnight into Saturday in
response to a boundary moving down towards the north Gulf. Scattered
thunderstorms with heavy downpours and frequent lightning are
possible Saturday afternoon before the main front moves into cenLA
in the evening. Lightning may become a focus for fire issues if
cells make for cloud to ground lightning. More widespread showers
and embedded thunderstorms are then anticipated to overspread the
region with 1 to 3 inches of rain expected with this system. There
will likely be corridors of higher totals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  64  77  63 /  80  70  80  10
LCH  81  66  77  67 /  70  70  80   0
LFT  83  68  79  66 /  60  70  80  10
BPT  81  66  79  66 /  70  70  80   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11