New Iberia, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

842
FXUS64 KLCH 230945
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
345 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 345 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Early morning sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the
cntl/lower Mississippi Valley dominating our area weather at the
moment. Water vapor imagery shows a nwrly mid/upper-level flow in
place, with a series of weak disturbances embedded in it providing
some occasional cirrus per IR imagery. With mostly good radiating
conditions in place, sfc obs indicate temperatures have fallen
nicely overnight, with readings currently in the upper 30s/lower 40s
for the most part across the forecast area. In addition, we`re
likely seeing some patchy frost developing across the nrn zones
where temps are lowest to go along with the calm conditions. As
expected, regional 88Ds are PPINE.

Current forecast thinking continues to indicate dry conditions
lingering through the weekend as the sfc high remains in control,
while the nwrly flow aloft behind a departing trof axis will
gradually transition to a more zonal flow. After a couple of days
with cooler than normal temperatures, today looks like one last
day of more seasonal temps (highs in the upper 60s/around 70) as
the sfc high begins sliding east of the forecast area, allowing a
bit of an onshore flow to develop by late this afternoon. The
temperature moderation looks to really set in tonight, as mins
across the srn/wrn zones are progged to run nearly 10 degrees
warmer than this morning`s readings. Across the nern zones, where
low-level WAA will be last to set in, Sunday morning wake up temps
are still expected to be on the cold side with readings in the
lower 40s.

With the sfc high east of the area and the wrly flow in place
aloft, Sunday will see much warmer temperatures with highs zooming
back up the mid/upper 70s, despite a bit more cloud cover on the
heels of the now-developed onshore flow. Sunday night lows will
rival our late November highs as temps are only progged to drop to
the lower/mid 60s.

By Monday, a deepening trof crossing the center of the country
will help push a sfc frontal boundary towards the region, with
this feature set to cross the area Monday night. Pre-fropa
moisture return looks to be generally confined to the lower
levels, and with best lift progged to remain well to our north,
rain chances remain on the low side to end the short term.

25


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

The extended will begin with high pressure quickly moving east
across the mid Mississippi Valley. This will begin a return flow
late Tuesday into Wednesday. Dry and mild weather is anticipated
Tuesday, however moisture and temperatures will gradually increase
into Thanksgiving. Low pressure will move into Texas by late
Wednesday with potentially a streamer shower possible by late in the
day. The low will trek east across North LA or South AR early
Thursday with the associated cold front expected to move across the
local area during mid day to afternoon. Thunderstorms are
anticipated during Thanksgiving, however chances of severe weather
look low for now, but not zero.

Cool and dry weather will return beyond Thursday and into the
weekend.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

VFR conditions expected to remain through daybreak and continue
during the diurnal hours under a high pressure regime. Some
guidance is suggestive of brief ground BR in portions of central
LA upon dawn, however, very dry air a few hundred few aloft will
keep BR minimal at best. Strong temperature inversion developing
in lowest 600ft AGL by prior to sunrise. Variable light winds out
of the north will shift southerly by this evening.

30

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

We`ll see some elevation of the srly winds on Sunday as the sfc
high pushes east of the area and lower pressures begin developing
over the Rockies/srn Plains...however at this time, not expecting
much in the way of headlines on the CWF through the coming days.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  66  39  75  59 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  69  50  77  66 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  69  48  77  62 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  72  56  80  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...30