Natchitoches, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

602
FXUS64 KSHV 141734
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1234 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

 - Continued rainfall is likely through the day Monday and
   Tuesday, especially along and south of the I-20 corridor. As
   confidence increases, a Flood Watch may become necessary.

 - Most areas could see a break in rain on Wednesday and Thursday
   and warm back up into the 90s during the afternoons.

 - Widespread rain could return to the forecast late this week
   depending on the movements of a disturbance in the Gulf.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026


The MCS that we`ve been tracking has moved into the region this
morning and become less organized. At the time of writing, some
light showers remain along the cold front that initially was the
focus for the MCS. The heavier showers are further south along I-20
along the main outflow boundary from this morning`s activity. There
are also other pop-up showers developing to over most of the
southern half of the region, which will likely interact with the
outflow boundary and the secondary line of showers through the
afternoon hours. While the activity is expected to remain subsevere,
there may be some brief severe hazards with cell mergers. There is a
greater focus on the potential for localized flooding, especially in
poor drainage and urban areas. This rain has also kept temperatures
lower than previously forecasted, so I`ve made some adjustments to
today`s highs.

Rain is increasingly likely to remain in the forecast for the next
several days. The front that was the original driver of the MCS will
continue to push southward through this afternoon and stall
overnight. This stationary front could act as a lifting mechanism
for redevelopment tomorrow. QPF estimations over the past several
days have been somewhat inconsistent on the location of showers, but
the most recent guidance is favoring areas along and south of I-20
for additional rainfall on Monday and Tuesday. Recent dry soils and
general low water in surrounding waterways should be able to handle
today`s rain, but there is some concern about the repeated rainfall
over the following days. A Flood Watch may be necessary within the
next several forecast packages if models continue to agree.

Longer-range models have an upper-level low from southern TX moving
northeast toward the Ark-La-Miss on Wednesday, which could keep rain
chances in the forecast for our south and eastern zones even as the
stationary front is able to move. Much of the region is expected to
warm up a bit during the brief break in rain, likely climbing back
into the 90s Thursday afternoon. Temperatures could get knocked back
into the 80s Friday with more widespread rain associated with a
shortwave trough. There could also be interactions with the
disturbance in the Gulf, but conditions that far out are still very
uncertain.

57

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

For the 14/18Z TAFs, this morning`s complex of showers and
thunderstorms has been diminishing as it advances south past the I-
20 corridor, colliding with a broad area of scattered showers and
storms increasing in coverage. Associated precip carried with
VCSH/VCTS at impacted terminals this afternoon. BKN and SCT mid to
high clouds will linger through the evening before deteriorating to
IFR after midnight with renewed rainfall chances as another wave of
showers impacts our east Texas terminals before daybreak. The
presence of this surface boundary will result in variable winds at
maximum sustained speeds of 7 to 12 kts, becoming light overnight.

/26/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Spotter activation may be needed along and south of I-20 this
afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  80  71  85 /  80  90  60  50
MLU  73  81  70  84 /  80  90  70  60
DEQ  68  78  65  86 /  60  50  10   0
TXK  70  79  68  86 /  60  50  20  10
ELD  70  79  66  86 /  60  80  40  30
TYR  73  81  70  86 /  80  90  40  40
GGG  73  81  70  86 /  80  90  50  50
LFK  74  84  72  85 /  80  90  80  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...26