Estelle, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

098
FXUS64 KLIX 200948
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
448 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

...New LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Sunday will bring drier conditions as surface high pressure drifts
in the region from the east. In the upper levels, ridging can be
seen drifting westward towards our area. The upper level high will
be a decently strong one, allowing for an in increase
temperatures and heat indices. Temperatures on Sunday are forecast
to be in the low to mid 90s for the entire area. With heat
indices forecast to be in the 108- 112F range for a good majority
of the area, went with a Heat Advisory from 10AM to 7PM. As the
upper level riding and surface high drift in, this brings convection
to be more isolated in nature.

Monday will have very similar conditions to Sunday, but possibly
heightened even more. The upper level and surface highs will
become more centered over our area on Monday, bringing even warmer
temperatures. The entire area is forecast to have MaxT`s in the
mid 90s, with MaxAptT`s in the 108-112F range once again. Knowing
this, it is very likely a Heat Advisory is issued for Monday as
well. Convection will once again be very isolated if we see any at
all.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 432 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Tuesday will be no picnic as far as heat goes, and we fully see
the heat advisory being duplicated each day through Wed. Wed will
be the only question since we should start to see the clouds and
rain moving in either around noon or later Wed. If this comes in
later in the day, then the heat advisory will be issued for Wed as
well. PW values will once again jump by late Wed into Thu as the
easterly wave moves west over the NE gulf. There is a strong
chance that the coast will get some liquid sunshine from this but
how far the rain reaches inland will remain the question as we
move into mid to late week. As the easterly wave moves west, it
could develop a weak sfc low that should track west into the
western gulf by the end of the week as the strong synoptic ridge
holds firm over or just north of the area. But this won`t be
enough to keep storms from developing, which will be only a daily
diurnal basis as we move into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 432 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

VFR through this taf cycle. There will be some showers and maybe
even a storm around but chances are not high enough to mention.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Marine will be rather benign for the next few days as high pressure
builds in from the east. This helps to keep winds light through mid
week. Convection coverage will be very isolated in nature to start
the week, but any thunderstorms that do pop up will have localized
stronger winds and seas. Heading into the back half of the week we
will see a wave move through the Gulf bringing an increase in
thunderstorm coverage and possibly stronger winds. Models have
been back and forth with this system strengthening the winds, so
will need to monitor that situation for possible Small Craft
headlines.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  73  95  73 /  20   0   0   0
BTR  94  75  95  76 /  20   0  10   0
ASD  93  75  95  75 /  20   0  20   0
MSY  94  78  95  78 /  20   0  20   0
GPT  92  77  94  77 /  20   0  20   0
PQL  93  75  95  76 /  20   0  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HL
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...HL