Winchester, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

505
FXUS63 KLMK 071904
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
304 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Very isolated shower and storm chance this afternoon. Mostly dry
  weather expected.

* Drier conditions through the weekend, with daily high temperatures
  in the upper 80s to near 90 through next week.

* Storm chances increase again early next week as cold front
  approaches the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025

Partly cloudy skies were observed across the region this afternoon.
A decent Cu field was in progress and we had some scattered showers
and storms roaming across the area. Convection was largely confined
to the edges of the CWA from Lexington down to Lake Cumberland, and
then also along our western edge of the forecast area from
Evansville southward towards Owensboro.  Temperatures across the
region were in the mid-upper 80s, though where storms have occurred,
localized cool spots of lower-mid 70s were noted.

For the remainder of the afternoon, isolated-scattered showers and
storms will be seen across the region.  Again, most of the storms
look to be along the western/eastern edges of the forecast area.
Storms will be capable of heavy rainfall, gusty winds to 35 mph, and
lightning.  Some very localized flooding could occur where a storm
moves slowly over an area.

FOr the evening and overnight, convection is expected to diminish
early this evening with skies clearing out and winds becoming light.
Patchy fog development will be possible in the river valleys and in
areas that saw appreciable rainfall this afternoon.  Overnight lows
will be in the upper 60s to around 70.

For Friday, upper level ridging across the Plains is expected to
build into the western Ohio Valley, while troughing remains over the
Mid-Atlantic region.  Overall, this pattern favors a drier pattern
overall, it is still possible that we could some some isolated
convection develop in the heat of the afternoon.  However, coverage
looks to be less than 15%.  Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s
with a few of the typical warmer spots hitting 90.  Overnight lows
will be in the upper 60s to around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025

Saturday - Sunday Night...

Seasonably hot temperatures and mostly dry weather is expected over
the weekend as upper level ridging builds over the eastern CONUS. A
ridge of surface high pressure will extend from just off the coast
of the northeast US to the southern Appalachians, while a cold front
will remain hung up over the upper Midwest through the weekend.
Light southerly and anticyclonic flow out of the sfc high will keep
a plume of richer moisture to the northwest of the region,
suppressing daily shower and storm chances. While a very isolated
shower or storm cannot be ruled out over the weekend, most should
just see a scattered cu field during the late morning and afternoon
hours. High temperatures should reach the upper 80s and low 90s,
with low temperatures falling into the upper 60s and low 70s.
Afternoon heat indices should remain in the mid-to-upper 90s since
dewpoints will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Early to Mid Next Week...

An upper trough over central Canada this weekend is expected to
gradually eat away at ridging over the eastern US over the first
half of next week. This should cause sfc high pressure ridging to
the east to gradually weaken, with the cold front to the northwest
gradually sinking toward the Ohio Valley. While this front should
stay to the north of the region, higher PW values ahead of the front
should begin to make it down into the area, especially by the middle
of the week. This should increase instability to the point where
scattered afternoon and evening shower and storm chances should
return. Given that the faster flow aloft should hang to the north of
the region, would expect mainly slow-moving, garden-variety
convection at this time. As coverage of diurnal cu and shower and
storms increases, temps should be fairly constant or maybe a degree
or two cooler early-to-mid week. Still, this would lead to highs
remaining in the upper 80s and low 90s with lows in the upper 60s
and low-to-mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 103 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025

Diurnal Cu field is in progress across the region.  A few storms
have popped up along the I-75 corridor and this activity should
continue thorugh the afternoon.  As of this writing, KLEX/KRGA seem
to have the highest chances of storms in the near term.  Could see a
few storms pop up near KSDF later this afternoon, but lower
confidence here precludes a mention at this time.  Elsewhere, VFR
conditions are expected this afternoon and evening with light and
variable winds.  The outlook for Friday calls for VFR conditions and
a continued light/variable wind.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CSG
AVIATION...MJ