Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

210
FXUS63 KJKL 081632
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1232 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and humid weather will persist through the week.

- There is a high chance of showers and thunderstorms into the
  weekend.

- Heavy rainfall is expected at times through the first half of
  this weekend, with a threat of isolated to scattered instances
  of flash flooding.

- A Flood Watch has been issued for flash flood potential across
  the area, and is in effect from Thursday afternoon through
  Saturday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1231 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026

A Flood Watch has been issued from Thursday afternoon through late
Saturday night for the growing potential for more widespread
instances of flash flooding. Before then, from this afternoon
through Thursday morning, isolated instances of flash flooding
will be possible with any localized excessive rainfall from slow-
moving and/or training showers and thunderstorms.

Hourly PoPs were generally expanded and increased from the prior
forecast for the remainder of today and tonight, with little other
needed changes to the grids at this time in the near term.


UPDATE Issued at 930 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026

The Dense Fog Advisory has been allowed to expire, with satellite
imagery showing fog and low stratus burning off fairly rapidly.
Primary update was to trend higher with Sky cover, utilizing more
of a blend of models. Otherwise, updates to hourly T/Td grids were
made in the near term, with the latest observations used to
initialize the NDFD database.

UPDATE Issued at 725 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026

Almost a repeat of yesterday morning with a need for a Dense Fog
Advisory, though it seems to be lifting to a stratus so may not be
as much of a concern for valleys now. Otherwise, no significant
changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion
of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These tweaks
have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening
of the zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026

08Z sfc analysis still shows a weak and ill defined pressure
pattern over eastern Kentucky. This is allowing the diurnal cycle
to be the main driver of the weather. At night, the convection
dies off along with much of the clouds allowing very limited
radiation cooling and the development of fog - becoming dense in
the valleys. Again due to high humidity there is minimal terrain
differences showing up in the temperatures. Specifically, readings
are generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s with similar
dewpoints, amid light to calm winds. An SPS is again in effect for
areas of dense fog early this morning across the entirety of the
JKL CWA.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in good
agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast
even as they indicate more amplification to end the work week.
Initially, they all depict a positively tilted 5h trough in place
over the Tennessee Valley through western Kentucky. This trough
will fill and dampen through Thursday as it slowly drifts east
with very small height falls for the area. Late in the period the
westerlies at mid-level running through the northern Ohio Valley
start to speed up and settle south toward Kentucky. This
essentially sets the stage for additional short waves - some
probably convectively induced from upstream - to impact the area
into the start of the weekend. Given the good enough agreement
among the models through 00Z Friday, the NBM was used as the
starting point for the grids with some adjustment applied for very
minor terrain details in temperatures tonight. As for PoPs,
consensus guidance for convective timing and coverage were
included from the latest CAM runs. These were again smoothed and
fitted to a reasonable diurnal trend - though with more influence
from mid and upper level dynamics possibly extending the
convection later into the nights than the past couple of them.

Sensible weather features typical summertime conditions stuck on
repeat as conditions will be warm and humid with mainly afternoon
and evening convection. Overlaid on this fairly predictable
pattern will be the potential for outside influence in the form
of waves at mid level working into or near the JKL CWA -
particularly on Thursday and beyond. Slow storm motions and high
PWS (at times over 2 inches) in place means a heightened concern
for localized flooding - especially for places that see training
cells - becoming cumulative by week`s end with isolated flood
concerns peaking. In addition to the excessive rain, we will also
need to be on the look out for organized convection from those
strengthening and nearing westerlies bringing perturbances closer
to the area such that damaging wind gusts could be possible from
any more organized storms Thursday afternoon and evening -
especially over our western zones.

The main adjustments to the NBM starting point were to include
more high resolution CAMs details (smoothed) into the PoPs and
thunder potential grids through Thursday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026

The main change to the grids for the first part of the extended
forecast this morning was to adjust spot specific Max and Min
temps at several points though the area. Faster flow at mid levels
and general troughing over the Ohio Valley will continue into the
weekend and likely support an enhanced threat for heavy rain and
localized flooding - particularly Friday and Saturday.

The previous long term discussion follows:

Thursday, a positively tilted trough featuring an area of low
pressure is modeled over the IN/IL/KY area. A secondary upper level
disturbance is also modeled over the Iowa area. Further west, an
area of high pressure remains of the southern California coast.
Heading into Friday the secondary low over Iowa moves into the Ohio
Valley, while ridging amplifies over the western US. Late Friday
evening a third disturbance over the Rockies will spill into the
Plains and eventually into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley by Saturday,
as high pressure continues to build into a 598-dm heat dome over the
Intermountain West.

For sensible weather in Eastern Kentucky, scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible through Monday, with chances slowly
diminishing behind a cold frontal passage Sunday. Model PWATs
generally remain above 1.75 inches through a good portion of the
period but peak Friday evening into Saturday morning. Those PWATs
range anywhere from 2.0-2.1 inches, and according to the ECMWF
Mean PWAT, the values fall within the 90th percentile of
climatological normals. Given the abnormal PWAT, recent rainfall,
and potential to exceed flood guidance with any good storm with
the potential for producing torrential rain, the WPC has placed
all of Eastern Kentucky in a Marginal Risk on Thursday, and a
Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall both Friday and Saturday.

Tuesday, rising heights will lead to warming temperatures as
multiple models show a 600-dm high over much of the Northern and
Central Plains. One can expect mostly sunny skies and dry
conditions. Temperatures warm into the low to mid 80s through Sunday,
with lows cooling into the upper 60s. With high pressure building
into the area Monday and beyond, temperatures may be a few degrees
warmer into the mid to upper 80s. Otherwise temperatures cool into
the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026

The fog and low stratus are affecting the majority of the TAF
sites at the 12Z issuance with VLIFR conditions reported. This is
expected to possibly convert to or merge with a low cloud deck
before clearing out. VFR conditions then return until more
showers/ thunderstorms develop after daytime heating builds. This
once again results in localized IFR or worse conditions likely
lingering later into the evening than the past couple of nights.
Winds will be light and variable away from any storm.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Sunday morning for
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GREIF