Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

685
FXUS63 KJKL 280025 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
725 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fast-moving clipper systems will move through tonight and late
  Wednesday, with flurries and patches of light snow possible.
  Some localized minor accumulations could occur.

- Bitter cold weather lasts through the upcoming weekend, with at
  least a brief warming trend then possible early next week.

- There is a potential for a more widespread light snow event
  Friday/Saturday for parts of eastern Kentucky depending on the
  evolution of a possible large system developing/moving up the
  Eastern Seaboard.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows a large area of low pressure to the east
of Kentucky continuing to lock in cyclonic flow over the JKL CWA.
This is supporting a band of very light snow and flurries
slipping through the area this evening and early overnight, but
little in the way of accumulations are expected. Currently,
temperatures are running in the low 20s northwest to the upper 20s
in the southeast. Meanwhile, amid southwest to west winds of 10
to 15 mph, dewpoints are generally in the mid teens north and the
low 20s south. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the
latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids but also to fine tune
the low PoPs and snow chances through the night. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
a freshening of the zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 204 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026

Clouds have increased rapidly from northwest to southeast this
afternoon in association with a passing disturbance and surface cold
front which will cross the area this evening. Breezy conditions
ahead of the front will diminish with the passage of the front, with
with light west to west-northwest winds tonight. Flurries and snow
showers can be expected, mainly late this afternoon through the
early overnight, with the highest chance at measurable snow in the
Big Sandy Basin and US Highway 23 corridor. Any snow accumulations
would likely be no more than one-half inch.

Skies partially clear overnight before another weakening clipper
system approaches Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. This
will be accompanied by an increase in clouds again and a few
flurries along with a modest increase in westerly winds for
Wednesday afternoon. This system has trended significantly weaker
than modeled in previous days. Nevertheless, clouds and possibly
flurries will linger into the Wednesday night period.

With moderate to strong mixing in place, temperatures are recovering
into the 20s to lower 30s. Temperatures tonight with clouds hanging
around for much of the night will be chilly but not quite as cold as
last night, with the possible exception of areas north of the
Interstate 64 corridor, where another night of sub-zero wind chills
are expected. A Cold Weather Advisory continues for these areas for
tonight into Wednesday morning.

Highs Wednesday should be up to several degrees lower than for
Tuesday with a bit less sunshine and less mixing in the afternoon,
with near 20 degrees expected along and north of the I-64 corridor
and 20s to lower 30s to the south. Lows Wednesday night return to
the low single-digits north to lower teens south and east Wednesday
night. Additional cold weather headlines may be needed for our
Bluegrass counties and vicinity for this period.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 357 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026

The long-term forecast period opens Thursday morning with a deep
~510 dam upper level low over the Ottawa River Valley, while broad
overall troughing prevails east of the Rockies. A shortwave
disturbance is noted within the parent trough, crossing over the
Central Plains with a weak surface reflection near/over Oklahoma.
Ahead of that system, a ridge of high pressure extends southeast
from Minnesota to over Kentucky.

Model agreement is good on Thursday, but uncertainty still
increases later in the week as the aforementioned deep upper level
low elongates west-to-east and then pivots counterclockwise/digs
deeply across the Eastern CONUS heading into the upcoming weekend,
likely closing off into a 500 hPa low over the Southeast US.
There is increasing agreement that a period of isentropic upglide
ahead of the 500 hPa trough axis should lead to a period of
light, fluffy snow across eastern Kentucky on Friday, especially
south of I-64. Accumulations on the order of a few tenths to
perhaps an inch or more closer to the VA-KY border will be
possible. Meanwhile, the shortwave trough will support the weak
low pressure dropping to along the Gulf Coast and then up the
coast, where both upper level features may favorably interact
over the weekend to form a Miller A Noreaster. Confidence in many
of the details/impacts is low, as there is still significant run-
to-run and model-to-model variation with respect to how quickly
the upper level trough closes off, how far south it tracks, as
well as when it phases with the southern stream energy. Thus,
significant disparities exist as to whether impactful snowfall
occurs mainly east of the Appalachians (favored by most guidance
at this point) or if the Central/Southern Appalachians pick up on
notable accumulations as well (possibly including southeastern
Kentucky). Those details should become clearer as the ingredients
of this system become better sampled over the next 48 to 72 hours.

Of high confidence is the subsequent bitterly cold air mass that
will sink southward with the 500 hPa trough/low -- 925 hPa
temperatures sink to near -20C over eastern Kentucky early
Saturday. Any shallow moisture is likely to support at least a
few upslope flurries at times outside of any more organized
snowfall associated with the Noreaster riding up the coast. A
moderating temperature trend then follows Sunday and Monday as
heights recover slightly. Another shortwave trough passing through
the synoptic-scale troughing could support additional light
wintry precipitation later Monday/Tuesday.

In sensible weather terms, look for well below normal temperatures
throughout the period. High temperatures range in the mid 20s
north to mid 30s south on Thursday, retreating back to the upper
teens to low 30s on Friday when a chance of light accumulating
snow briefly returns for most locales. The coldest temperatures of
the long-term period follow Friday night and persist on
Saturday/Saturday night, with lows in the single digits on either
side of 0F while high temperatures only reach the 10s. There is a
low chance for additional flurries or maybe even some light snow
both weekend days, primarily near the VA-KY border, but the
details are obscure. Temperatures recover Sunday onward with highs
back in the 30s for most locations by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026

MVFR conditions were found through the aviation forecast area at
00Z. This will be holding steady or degrading a bit as a weak wave
moves in from the northwest. These conditions will persist
through much of the evening and early overnight before beginning
to improve from northwest to southeast after 06Z, when CIGs should
gradually work back to VFR. Occasional flurries or light snow
showers will also be possible and cause brief visibility
reductions during this time, but confidence is too low to
include in any TAFs except for PROB30 groups through 04Z.

Southwest winds ahead of the front are still brisk and gusty,
with current winds of 10 to 15 kts with gusts of 20 to 25 kts at
most locations. These winds will slowly diminish through 03Z while
becoming more westerly and then west-northwest with the frontal
passage. Light winds follow for most locations later tonight
before increasing again out of the west at 5 to 10 kts towards
midday Wednesday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
Wednesday for KYZ044-050>052.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...CMC/GREIF