Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

955
FXUS63 KJKL 220630 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
130 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Accumulating snow showers are expected across much of Eastern
   Kentucky on Sunday and Monday, especially east of I-75.

-  Some of the stronger snow showers may produce locally higher
   accumulation rates, wind gusts up to 30 mph, and sudden
   visibility reductions reminiscent of a snow squall.

-  Much colder air arrives tomorrow and lingers through Monday
   night, but a mid-week warming trend is expected.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1040 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026

As a shortwave trough passes across the region and an area of low
pressure and an are of low pressure continues to develop southeast
of the crest of the Appalachians over the Carolinas to the
Atlantic coast, colder air continues to advect into the region.
This and wetbulbing from falling precipitation has brought
temperatures above 2500 feet into the lower 30s. Some snow has
been noted to have been falling recently on the KY Mesonet
station cameras at the Harlan County (Black Mountain are) site
near 4000 feet elevation and the Pike County (Flatwoods area)
site near 2770 feet. Elsewhere to the northwest rain showers have
been occurring with measurable rain of 0.01 or a few hundredths
having fallen in some locations. This shortwave will gradually
move east of eastern KY by the predawn hours and a lull in chances
for showers is expected for much of the overnight. However, cold
air advection will continue and 850 mb temperatures should drop to
an average of about -8C across the CWA with the coldest values
near and north of I-64 by dawn as an upper level low moves across
IN and into OH and toward WV/the middle OH Valley through Sunday.

A few flurries cannot be completely ruled out late tonight or
early on Sunday morning, but not long after sunrise, moisture will
increase from northwest to southeast through midday Sunday and
Sunday afternoon. Solar insolation and continue cooling aloft will
steepen lapse rates and the low level flow will keep an upslope
northwest component and omega will be present within the DGZ.
This will result in an uptick in snow shower coverage toward
midday on Sunday with the intensity and coverage likely to peak
during the afternoon, especially across the north and east.
Another round of activity is expected Sunday night into early
Monday.

At this point, the 00Z HREF PMM snow accumulations through 00Z
Monday (7 PM EST Sunday) having generally trended down to the
northwest of the current advisory compared to the 12Z HREF from
the 21st. Some of the high resolution models such as 00Z HRRR has
trended down in those areas as well as have he last couple GFS
runs including the arriving 00Z also having trended down a bit
with snowfall to the northwest. Therefore, the current footprint
of the Winter Weather Advisory will be maintained at this time.
The SPS will be re-issued for locations further to the north and
west. Trends will be monitored and additional counties may need to
be added to the advisory later if confidence increases.

UPDATE Issued at 725 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026

So far this evening, the more eastern radar returns nearer to the US
23 corridor and the WV border have largely been only virga due to
a try sub cloud layer. Meanwhile rain has been reaching the
ground further to the west including during the past few minutes
at JKL and in the southwest as well. So far just trace amounts
have been noted within the CWA as the boundary layer rh continues
to increase. Some measurable rain has fallen in parts of central
KY. This activity was occurring ahead of a shortwave trough
approaches from the west and temps aloft and lapse rates have
increased. The max 2 to 6 km AGL layer lapse rate currently
analyzed over the region is generally around 6.5C/km. Also the
dry subcloud layer is leading to some gustiness as the showers
arrive.

Adjustments were made to hourly grids based on radar as well as
observation trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 240 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026

An upper trough traversing the center of the country this afternoon
will amplify in conjunction with a developing surface low tonight
along the Carolina coastline. Rapid deepening of the surface and
upper low is then expected just off the Mid-Atlantic coast
tomorrow into Monday, with several shortwave disturbances moving
southeast across the Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions Sunday
through Monday night within an energetic jet stream.

Light precipitation is expected to develop this evening across much
of eastern Kentucky with the upper trough passage, with temperatures
falling to levels just cold enough for rain to possibly mix with
or change over to light snow before ending later tonight. No
significant impacts are expected other than wet roads, with any
very light snow accumulations confined to the Big Black Mountain
to Pound Gap area.

Chances for winter weather impacts increase through the day Sunday
and last into Monday as the aforementioned disturbances provide
forcing for ascent in conjunction with low-level cold advection and
upslope/frictional effects with the complex terrain of the
Cumberland Plateau and Southern Appalachians. The steadiest and
highest snow accumulations are expected along a rather narrow
corridor extending from Pike and Martin Counties south-southwest to
Harlan County, where there is high probability of at least 1 inch of
snow. Within this corridor, locally higher accumulations to 5 inches
or more will be possible, but the areal extent and relatively low
probability of occurrence is too low to warrant anything other than
a Winter Weather Advisory at this time.

For areas primarily east of Interstate 75, and especially adjacent
areas north and northwest of the Winter Weather Advisory, periods of
snow will be possible with the potential for squally conditions at
times as winds gust to 25 mph or higher at times. Many of these
areas may need an upgrade to a Winter Weather Advisory should the
snow accumulation forecast increase just a little, especially if
moisture from Lake Michigan can enhance snow shower activity over
parts of the area Monday. For areas along and west of Interstate
75, any snow accumulations are likely to be very low impact and
generally a trace to less than one-half inch, but will bear close
watching.

Temperatures fall from the 40s and 50s this afternoon into the 20s
and 30s tonight, and will recover very little Sunday and Monday,
with many locations only reaching near freezing or just slightly
above. This will increase the chances for snow to cause issues to
travel, particularly in the advisory area.

Another complicating factor to the snow will be the strong gusty
winds. Gusts of 15 to 25 mph, and locally stronger in the higher
terrain, will cause sudden and possibly significant visibility
reductions. The Snow Squall Parameter suggests the potential for
snow squalls at times, mainly during the Sunday and Monday afternoon
periods, with the highest potential in Pike County and extending to
adjacent counties to the north and northwest.

Snow showers will become increasingly confined to the immediate
upslope areas of Pike and Letcher counties late Monday through the
overnight, with shower activity diminishing to flurries before
ending late Monday night or early Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 424 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

The wintery conditions discussed above are not expected to persist
into the long term portion of the forecast period. Confidence is
high that temperatures will modulate back to near- or just-above-
normal values by midweek. Ridging briefly builds back into the
region on Tuesday before a series of shortwave troughing
disturbances approach the Greater Ohio River Valley during the
latter half of the work week. The second of these disturbances looks
more vigorous and more likely to produce sensible impacts here in
Eastern Kentucky than the first, but the antecedent warming trend
suggests that any precipitation that falls will come in the form of
liquid rain. The overarching synoptic pattern remains progressive
headed into the weekend, meaning that despite a well-defined late
week cold frontal passage, temperatures will continue their rise
towards well-above-normal values through the end of the forecast
period on Saturday.

When the period opens on Tuesday morning, temperatures will be at
their minimum values for their entire period. After AM lows in the
teens and the lower 20s, subsidence ahead of a building midlevel
ridge should foster some breaks in the clouds. The resultant solar
radiation and a return to southwesterly surface flow will allow
temperatures to recover to the lower half of the 40s on Tuesday
afternoon, but a 50-55 knot 850mb LLJ out of the SW spreads over the
area on Tuesday night. The resultant moisture return leads to
increasing cloud cover, and this will insulate Tuesday night`s lows.
NBM MinT guidance was actually bumped up a few degrees to better
match the WAA pattern, as the baseline values were lower than much
of the other available forecast guidance. As such, expect
temperatures in the upper 30s when the ahead of the first upper
level disturbance`s arrival on Wednesday.

While the aforementioned LLJ will push moisture into the midlevels
ahead of that system, the best precipitation chances look displaced
to the north of the forecast area. Drier air wrapping around the
back side of this clipper-type low will keep PoPs below mentionable
values during the daytime hours on Wednesday. Surface warm air
advection should allow highs to moderate further into the mid to
upper 50s, but all eyes will be on the second disturbance upstream
as it begins to dig into the Missouri River Valley on Wednesday
evening.

Model guidance collectively resolves this second feature as a much
sharper and much deeper trough by the time it reaches the Ohio River
Valley on Thursday. It`s positively tilted nature should reduce the
risk for severe convection, but another pronounced LLJ spreads over
the region out ahead of it. This LLJ will have better access to Gulf
moisture, and the southwesterly flow will be deeper than it was with
the prior day`s system. Coupled with the relatively stronger lifting
mechanisms and greater dynamic support aloft, this enhanced moisture
will lead to widespread rain showers between Wednesday night and
frontal passage on Thursday night. Given the antecedent wet grounds
and the early-period snowfall/snowmelt, we will have to monitor the
potential for hydrological impacts closely. The latest 50th
percentile PWATs within the LREF Grand Ensemble approach 1 inch in
this time frame. It`s mean values appear skewed towards lower values
by past model runs, but even those values rank near the 90th
percentile of model climatology. This supports the notion that
rainfall rates within these showers may be on the heavier side, as
does the most recent run of the ECMWF EFI/SOT. That piece of
forecast guidance has begun to pick up on a signal for higher-than-
usual QPF across Eastern Kentucky on Thursday. This signal was not
there in past runs, and it appears marginal at this moment in time,
but it bears watching.

The late week showery activity tapers off from NW to SE on Friday
morning with frontal passage, but the flow behind the parent system
aloft is quasi-zonal in most guidance. This mitigates the efficacy
of any post-FROPA cold air advection and reduces the risk for a
backside changeover to snow. A few flakes cannot be completely ruled
out in the typical higher-elevation locations on Friday morning,
when low temperatures are expected to approach the freezing mark.
Those temperatures do not last, and highs are forecast to step back
into the 50s on Friday afternoon and then the 60s on Saturday amidst
another period of southwesterly return flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026

VFR and MVFR conditions were observed at 06Z issuance time but
expect these to deteriorate through the night as lower levels
saturate - especially across the eastern half of the area.
Development of MVFR across the eastern half of the area is ongoing
with some IFR possible in the higher terrain near the VA border.
Further west, VFR should persist. Colder air moving into the
region will result in the rain showers mixing with snow,
increasingly. Between 09 and 15Z, MVFR should linger and/or
develop from northwest to southeast. A passing upper low will
combine with daytime heating to result in an increase in snow
shower activity between 12 and 18Z, especially east of I-75. This
activity will bring visibilities and/or ceilings down into the
MVFR range and IFR, or even lower, at least briefly with the
heaviest showers. Also, during the 12 to 18Z timeframe, west to
northwest winds will pick up into the 7 to 15 kt range, with gusts
up to 25 kts.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EST
Monday for KYZ088-110-113-115-118>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...JP/GREIF