Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

922
FXUS63 KJKL 220524 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1224 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Briefly warmer weather will last through Thursday before very
  cold weather returns and lasts into next week.

- A major winter storm system will likely bring significant snow
  and possibly ice accumulations this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1042 PM EST WED JAN 21 2026

Low clouds linger across the region at this point as the initial
weak cold front nears the VA border. Steadier precipitation has
shifted southeast of the area as the evening progresses. No recent
reports of rain reaching the ground have been reported by ASOS or
AWOS sites in the area. However, there could be a few sprinkles or
light drizzle falling from the weak returns currently over the
area. Chances for light rain were held onto a couple more hours in
the southeast accordingly. Temperatures should more or less hold
steady for much of the night until the next cold front moves into
the area toward dawn. Hourly grids were updated based on recent
trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 313 PM EST WED JAN 21 2026

A deep upper trough persist over the central and eastern portions
of the continent, with various impulses and associated surface
fronts/troughs rotating around it. One such cold front in a dying
phase is approaching KY from the northwest. Warm air advection
and an elevated moisture stream off the gulf ahead of the front
are affecting us. This is bringing milder temperatures compared to
recent days, but also an area of rain currently over our
northwest counties. The front will be dissolving as it moves in,
and the moisture stream will also fade as it shifts southeast over
and then out of the forecast area tonight. This will result in
precip fizzling out as it exits the area. However, low level
moisture will linger and keep clouds present tonight. Another cold
front, currently over IA, will also race southeast and reach us
around dawn. No significant moisture of any depth will be
remaining when it arrives, and no weather of significance is
forecast locally. In fact, drier air arriving behind the front
will help to break up our clouds. The return of sun should keep
our temperatures comparable to Wednesday despite cold air
advection. Weakening high pressure builds in from the west on
Thursday night with mainly clear skies to start the night. This
allows for good cooling conditions for most of the night and the
beginning of our next downturn in temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 421 PM EST WED JAN 21 2026

.....A Major Winter Storm Is Forecast For Eastern Kentucky....

To end the work week, Eastern Kentucky will see a cold front pass
through the area during the morning hours Friday. This cold front
could produce some scattered snow showers and perhaps some mixed
precip across portions of southeast Kentucky, though probabilities
remain low (15% chance) and with little to no impacts expected. High
temperatures will range from the upper 20s to upper 30s north to
south across the area. Heading into Friday night, expect
temperatures to fall through the teens into the single digits north
of I-64, and into the low to mid teens south.

Our attention turns next to the weekend, as an offshore low off the
Southern California coast, a "Baja-Low" is expected to eject
eastward into the Central Plains sometime Saturday. Strong upper-
level winds will help surge moisture out ahead of the system and
Into the Central US, and Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. While this
occurs, a Gulf-Low will also feed moisture northward into the
Tennessee Valley. All-while a trough digs south across the
Northern Plains and into the Ohio Valley.

Models and ensembles continue to show increasing potential for a
significant winter storm that is expected to bring moderate to
major impacts to Eastern Kentucky. With it, periods of moderate to
heavy snowfall are forecast Saturday through Sunday with the
possibility of a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain,
especially along and south of the KY-80/Hal Rogers Parkway. Model
spread is still quiet large when it comes to the details. The
European model for instance has had a northward shift over the
last 3-4 model runs, shifting the heaviest axis of snow northward.
This is likely due to the presence of a low over the Great Lakes.
This low is present in the latest model runs at 850-mb, but
absent in previous runs. The GFS in general is the more
progressive model, so the start time for snowfall with that suite
of models is early Saturday morning, where the previously
mentioned Euro could have snow arriving as late as Saturday
afternoon or early evening. Winds within the dendritic growth zone
continue to remain strong, supporting the theory that dendrites
will likely be fractured, leading to the potential of lower snow
ratios. The ECMWF EFI (Extreme Forecast Index) shows Eastern
Kentucky with EFI values of 0.80-0.90. This signals with high
confidence that snowfall will be extreme, relative to what the
state is used to for an average snowfall in January. As for a
shift of tails (SOT) value of 2, this indicates that we have the
potential to be well past record breaking snowfall. That said,
local records are a bit puny.

Latest ensembles are also showing an increased probability of 850-mb
temperatures being greater than 0 Celsius, in our southern
counties. This speaks to the possibility of mixed precipitation
including sleet and freezing rain, south of and including the
KY-80/Hal Rogers Parkway. When looking at the LREF Grand Ensemble,
the probability of seeing 0.30 inches of ice in this area ranges
from 35-45%. Additionally, of the 3 models making up the LREF,
the ECMWF`s ENS is missing from the solution. Looking at that
ensemble, the probability of 850-mb temperatures exceeding 0
Celsius was at 60-70% with the 00Z model run, and increase to
70-80% with the latest 12Z run. This adds to growing confidence
of a wintry mix along and south of the KY- 80/Hal Rogers Parkway,
and would also likely lead to lower snowfall totals.

When looking at the GFS ensemble, the probability of exceeding 6
inches of snowfall ranges from 30-60 percent across the area.
Moreover, the area with the highest chances of seeing 6 inches of
snowfall remains just north of the KY-80/Hal Rogers Parkway. While
the same general area with the highest probability of seeing more
than 6 inches of snowfall has remained the same over the last few
model runs, the probability has decreased. All this to further
illustrate that models are still wavering and have yet to converge
on an overall common solution. This storm however continues to
have the potential to be the biggest storm in some time.

Beyond the weekend, cold arctic night-time temperatures will take
over the spotlight. Sunday night, in the wake of the exiting system,
temperatures are expected to fall into the single digits for most of
the area. Some snow showers may linger into Monday morning,
especially across far Eastern Kentucky. Otherwise, expect a brisk
Monday, with decreasing clouds and temperatures ranging from the
teens to mid 20s northwest to southeast across the area. Monday
night into Tuesday morning, higher pressure builds into the area,
and under partly cloudy skies, temperatures could range from five
above to five below zero. Wind chills or apparent temperates
could also be approaching or exceeding Cold Weather thresholds, so
this will have to be monitored as we get closer. Tuesday will
also be quiet, with temperatures warming into the low to mid 20s
across the north and upper 20s to lower 30s across the south. At
night, temperatures cool again into the single digits to near 10
degrees for much of the area. Some southerly winds ahead of the
next potential system will allow high temperatures to warm into
the upper 20s to upper 30s on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM EST WED JAN 21 2026

Low clouds and some patchy light rain were present across the
area at issuance time along with some stratus build down fog in
the more northwestern locations. Mainly MVFR ceilings were
reported in the south and east, with some IFR near KSYM down to
KIOB and to the west in parts of central KY. Low level moisture
and clouds are expected to linger to begin the period, while the
patchy light rain should gradually shift to the southeast. The
mainly MVFR ceilings and with some IFR ceilings are expected to
largely prevail during the 06Z to 12Z timeframe, before the next
cold front moves into eastern KY. Improvement to VFR is forecast
areawide near and after its passage roughly during the 12Z to 16Z
period. Winds will average southwest to west at generally less
than 10KT through 21Z, before becoming light and variable.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Monday morning
for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.


&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JP