Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

368
FXUS63 KJKL 070939
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
539 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon to
  far northern Kentucky, then persist across the entire area
  through the new work week.

- The greatest rain chances are on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday,
  and the potential for multiple rounds of locally heavy rainfall
  poses a risk for isolated flooding in this time frame.

- Hot and humid conditions escalate through the week, with
  widespread apparent temperatures in the mid to upper 90s likely
  by Thursday and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 415 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026

Placid weather continues across eastern Kentucky early this morning
with temperatures ranging from the lower 60s in the cooler valleys to
around 70F atop thermal belt ridges. Patchy mid and upper level
clouds continue to drift in from northwest to southeast. A glance at
the latest surface analysis shows an ~999 mb surface low over the
St. Lawrence Valley with an associated cold front extending south
along Long Island and then southwest to below the Mason-Dixon
line and then WNW to over Iowa. Looking aloft, a 500 hPa trough
axis extends from Eastern Canada to over the Chesapeake Bay while
ridging extends from the Southeast NNW across the Commonwealth
and into the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. A notable
shortwave trough (former weak upper low) is found over Kansas and
Oklahoma riding up the western side of the ridge. While PWATs are
currently in the 1.1 to 1.3 inch range over the eastern portions
of Kentucky, deep southerly flow off of the Gulf is feeding a
much juicier air mass up the Mississippi Valley along the western
side of the upper level ridge and eastern side of the shortwave
trough.

As that shortwave trough continues to lift to over the Central
Plains this afternoon, the Northeast CONUS trough will amplify,
briefly allowing the upper level ridge to take on a high amplitude
omega appearance from Kentucky northward into Ontario while the
surface cold front stalls. A bit of weak energy riding through
the ridge could help force some convection this afternoon closer
to the stalled cold front to our north and east. However, any
convection would likely be limited to areas well north of the
Mountain Parkway and in fact is overall favored to most likely
stay northeast of the JKL CWA entirely. The front will retreat
northeast tonight and Monday while the 500 hPa ridge axis shifts
eastward and slowly breaks down as the shortwave trough drifts into
the Lower Ohio Valley. PWATs surge across eastern Kentucky on
Monday ahead of this feature, rising to 1.5 inches (85th
percentile relative to climatology) in the Big Sandy Basin to 1.9
inches near Lake Cumberland (or around the 99th percentile
relative to climatology). CAMs show numerous to widespread deep
convection developing from west to east across the JKL CWA during
the day on Monday as this upper level shortwave trough approaches.
With the deep, moist, and skinny CAPE profiles will come the
threat of torrential downpours, though any substantial hydro
concerns should hold off for most if not all of the area until
after 00z Tuesday (though some concerns cannot be entirely ruled
out in the Lake Cumberland area by the evening hours).

In sensible weather terms, look for quiet weather again today outside
of an isolated shower or storm threat well north of the Mountain
Parkway. It will be warm and more humid with highs in the mid to
upper 80s. Variable cloud cover follows for tonight with lows
ranging in the 60s. Showers and storms then increase from west to
east during the day on Monday with temperatures ranging from the
lower 80s in the vicinity of Lake Cumberland to the upper 80s over
the Big Sandy River Basin.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 539 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026

The long term period will open with an upper level ridge over the
eastern CONUS, with a closed upper level low over the Canadian
Prairie and a relatively defined shortwave just west of the
forecast area. Farther west, a closed upper level low sits off the
coast of British Columbia, with general troughing over the
western CONUS. Although rain chances are expected to wane
overnight Monday with the loss of diurnal heating, height falls
associated with this shortwave will provide enough lift for
additional precipitation chances on Tuesday, particularly as the
upper level ridge translates east and continues to break down. A
moist air mass will already be in place, with LREF mean PWATs
generally ranging from 1.6 to 1.8 inches across most of the
forecast area by Tuesday afternoon; this represents values in at
least the 95th percentile compared to climatology. Instability
will be adequate for some thunderstorms, with LREF mean MUCAPE in
the neighborhood of 500-1000 J/kg. This instability will be driven
largely by excessive moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low
70s); however, lapse rates will generally be poor, and abundant
cloud cover will limit the development of a more robust
thermodynamic environment. Also, given the absence of any upper
level features directly overhead, shear will be pitiful, with
effective shear generally remaining below 10 kts. This will keep
storms fairly weak and disorganized, and thus the main convective
hazard will be locally heavy downpours and potential isolated
instances of flash flooding, particularly in areas that receive
multiple rounds of convection. Once again, rain chances should
decrease somewhat on Tuesday night with the loss of daytime
heating.

By Wednesday, troughing over the western CONUS will progress
eastward, with upper level ridging building over the Mississippi
Valley between this western trough and the aforementioned
shortwave. At this time, there is significant model disagreement
over the exact progression of these features, including the
departure of the initial shortwave and the eastward extent of the
stronger trough to the west. Generally, there is agreement that
height falls are expected through at least early Wednesday, which
should allow for at least some rain chances in the area. Details
remain less clear after that. Some models (such as the GFS) depict
a higher amplitude ridge building more quickly, resulting in
height rises by Wednesday afternoon. This would result in lower
PoPs for the forecast area at this time. In contrast, other
solutions (such as the ECMWF) favor a slower building and lower
amplitude ridge. In this scenario, flow aloft would be closer to
zonal ahead of the trough, resulting in continued height falls and
higher PoPs throughout Wednesday. LREF 24 hour QPF suggests a
0.25 in difference between 25th and 75th percentile values across
most of our area, demonstrating this model spread. Therefore,
although NBM QPF was retained, the forecast remains generally low
confidence at this time.

Looking ahead, troughing continues to progress east towards the
end of the work week. Unfortunately, there is limited model
consensus regarding the southward extent of the trough, which
itself depends on the evolution and strength of the aforementioned
upper level ridge. Regardless, convection appears possible each
day through Saturday given the continued presence of moisture
(dewpoints remain in the upper 60s and low 70s) and the generally
favorable upper level pattern. However, confidence remains low in
the details of rain chances at any particular time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Mid to high
level clouds will continue to stream in early this morning from
the WNW. Additionally patchy fog may also develop, but should
remain confined to the mainstem river valleys. Winds will be
light and variable through the period, generally around 5 kts or
less.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GINNICK