Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

560
FXUS63 KJKL 032118
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
418 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Repeated rounds of heavy rain through Wednesday may cause
  localized high water or flooding, especially north of the
  Mountain Parkway (particularly in/around Fleming County).

- A few strong to severe storms capable of large hail and
  damaging winds are possible late Wednesday afternoon and
  evening, mainly north of the Mountain Parkway.

- Temperatures will soar into the upper 70s to lower 80s on
  Friday and Saturday, threatening daily record highs.

- A strong cold front will bring widespread showers and
  thunderstorms on Saturday, some of which could be strong to
  severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 345 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026

The warm front that was pushing north across the state this morning
has stalled. As of 2000Z/3 PM EST this stationary front remains
over the Ohio River Valley, along the boarder of Ohio and
Kentucky. Showers continue to move along this boundary heading
into this evening. This front is expected to slowly lift north
through the rest of this afternoon, with shower activity ending
for a period of time, around 00Z/7 pm EST. Currently, a
temperatures gradient has set up across Eastern Kentucky with mid
to upper 50s across northern parts of the area, where showers and
cloud cover have persisted through the day, with low to mid 60s
across the south. Winds should begin to weaken over the next
several hours. They will also remain southerly through the short
term period. This will continue to usher in warmer moist air into
the region.

Tonight, the stationary front to our north will begin to sag south
again, mainly after 06Z/1 AS EST. This will allow for showers and
maybe even a thunderstorm, mainly north of I-64 in the pre-dawn
hours of Wednesday morning. Temperatures tonight generally remain in
the mid 50s.

Wednesday, chances of showers and isolated to scattered
thunderstorms sag south with the frontal boundary. As an area of low
pressure moves out of the Central Plains and into the Ozarks, the
frontal boundary will again stall over the area before moving back
north in the afternoon hours. A few strong thunderstorms are
possible mainly late Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday evening in
locations north of the Mountain Parkway. Hail and or strong to
damaging winds are possible. The Storm Prediction Centers Outlook
has a Marginal Risk (1/5) clipping the northern parts of Fleming
County, with the hail threat being the contributing factor. The same
area is under a Marginal Risk (1/4) for Excessive Rainfall, as a lot
of these showers and storms have traveled over the same areas over
the last 24 hours and are expected to over the next 48 hours. The
greater flood risk remains north of the forecast area, where
surrounding offices have issued Flood Watches. A gradient in
precipitation is likely, with Fleming County most likely to see
rainfall around or exceeding 1 inch by Thursday morning.
Temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 60s to mid 70s,
north to south across Eastern Kentucky. Low pressure will continue
to lift into the Ohio Valley. As it does, the area will find itself
firmly in the warm sector, behind the warm front and ahead of the
systems approaching cold front. Temperatures at night will remain
elevated, cooling into the upper 50s. Isolated shower chances (15-
24%) remain south of the Mountain Parkway, with scattered shower
chances remaining along and north of the Mountain Parkway
(25-54%).

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 408 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026

The models are in good agreement showing the long-term kicking off
Thursday morning with a 500 hPa high over the Caribbean with a
ridging axis extending northward into the Great Lakes. Meanwhile,
troughing prevails over the Intermountain West and northern Rockies.
A shortwave trough axis is noted over the Midwest in advance of
the trough. At the surface, a weak area of low pressure is
modeled to track northeast across Illinois while its associated
cold front trails to the southwest back across Oklahoma.

Guidance is in good agreement through Friday, providing strong
confidence in the forecast. The shortwave and its associated surface
reflection will continue to track northeast over the eastern Great
Lakes through Thursday, with a secondary low developing off the
southern New England Coast late Thursday night. The system`s
trailing cold front stalls out along or north of the Ohio River
earlier in the evening. This will likely keep continued rain
chances in the forecast over eastern Kentucky. That boundary
begins lifting back to the north late Thursday night and Friday as
a new low pressure takes shape over the Central High Plains. This
occurs as the parent upper-level trough splits, with a
significant portion of the energy ejecting northeast as a
shortwave across the Central Rockies and the other portion
retrograding into a closed low off the Baja California Peninsula.
Over the Ohio Valley, the developing warm sector will be inundated
with a moist and anomalously mild subtropical air mass (850 hPa
temperatures rising to 13-14C) until the arrival of the new low
pressure system`s cold front on Saturday. The combination of
temperatures near or above record levels and dew points rising
into the 50s to near 60F is modeled to support several hundred to
~1000 J/kg of MLCAPE on Friday. However, rising heights and a
notable stable layer near 700 hPa will likely keep a lid on most
convection. If an updraft did overcome the cap, there could be a
brief garden variety shower or thunderstorm.

As the cold front approaches on Saturday, that cap disappears and
sfc-500 hPa shear increases to 30 to 40 kts--an environment
supportive of more extensive and potentially stronger convection.
AI severe convective forecast probabilities from the GEFS and
ECMWF all point to at least a lower-end risk for severe weather
across the JKL CWA. More notable model disparities are noted
going into Saturday and Sunday, especially around the amplitude
and eastward progression of the shortwave trough as it is
captured by a northern stream trough digging into Southeastern
Canada. This flattens the upper-level ridge and leaves behind
quasi-zonal flow over the Eastern CONUS on Sunday. Consequently,
the system`s cold front plows into the Ohio Valley on Saturday
only to anemically stall out as the upper-level forcing is sheared
to the northeast. Modestly cooler (850 hPa temperatures settling
to 8-10C) and drier air follows the front Sunday morning before
the boundary begins to push back north as a warm front. As heat
and humidity return, so will the daily threat of convection as
weak impulses pass through the flow aloft.

In sensible weather terms, showers will gradually move in from the
northwest on Thursday but generally weaken and struggle to reach far
southeastern Kentucky. A stray rumble of thunder cannot be entirely
ruled out. It will be mild with high temperatures ranging from
the mid 70s north of the Mountain Parkway to the upper 70s to
around 80F further south and east under partly to mostly sunny
skies and a busy southwest breeze. Thursday night should become
partly cloudy but remain quite mild with lows ranging in the mid
50s to lower 60s. Near-record to record-setting warmth follows for
Friday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. An afternoon
shower or isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out (20-30%
chance). The very mild weather continues Friday night and Saturday
with lows in the lower to mid 60s and highs in the mid 70s to
lower 80s. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to become
widespread (80-90% chance) on Saturday, some of which could be
strong to severe. Cooler weather follows for Sunday with highs in
the mid 60s to mid 70s before a warming trend ensues for the
remainder of the period. There will be a continued chance of
showers each day along with the possibility of a few
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026

The warm front that lifted north this morning has stalled Along
the Ohio-Kentucky boarder. Showers continue along and north of
this stalled front and will continue to do so through 19-22z or
so. Additional showers and perhaps some thunderstorms will
initiate along the boundary tonight, resulting in overnight SHRA
mentions at KIOB, KSYM, and KJKL. Winds are generally expected to
remain oriented out of the south through the duration of the TAF
period, with VFR to MVFR flight rules forecast.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...MARCUS/GINNICK