Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

412
FXUS63 KJKL 161814
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
214 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid weather continues today, with widespread heat
  indices in the 90s to near 100 degrees.

- Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms return this
  afternoon, primarily near and west of Interstate 75.

- A wetter pattern arrives Friday and continues through Sunday.
  The anomalously moist airmass will result in daily rounds of
  storms, some of which could produce heavy rainfall and localized
  flooding.

- A cold front will cross the region next Tuesday, bringing
  another chance for strong thunderstorms followed by cooler and
  drier weather mid-week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026

Another summertime day is in progress across Eastern Kentucky.
Area observations and webcams reveal that AM river valley fog has
burned off under ample sunshine, but cumulus clouds are already
developing across our southwestern counties. Temperatures remain
on track to rise into the upper 80s/lower 90s again, but dewpoints
a few degrees higher than yesterday`s mean that apparent
temperatures could flirt with the triple digits in portions of the
CWA. Widespread heat impacts are not expected, partly because the
aforementioned increase in low-level moisture will allow those
cumulus clouds to deepen into isolated to scattered showers and
storms this afternoon. The greatest thunderstorm chances are
along/west of the I-75 corridor, but a stray PM shower cannot
entirely be ruled out elsewhere. Radar returns have already been
noted across Wayne County, and low-end (15-20%) PoPs have
accordingly been introduced across the Lake Cumberland region
through the remainder of this morning. Aside from these minor PoP
adjustments, the forecast remains on track this morning, with AM
observations largely in track with the previous forecast grids.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 448 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026

Temperatures range from the upper 60s to lower 70s across eastern
Kentucky early this morning under mostly clear skies. Fog has also
developed along the mainstem rivers. The latest weather map shows
~1019 mb high pressure centered over the Lower Mississippi
Valley. Aloft, broad ridging prevails over most of the CONUS. The
exceptions to that are a prominent low over Eastern Canada/Northeast
US and another low off of the Pacific Northwest Coast. A third
very weak low is centered over Texas. Multiple weak perturbations
are also noted within the upper-level ridge from Florida to over
the Ozarks within a broad area of near 2.0 inch PWATs (PWAT values
range from 1.1 in far eastern Kentucky to 1.6 inches near Lake
Cumberland this morning).

Through the short-term period, reinforcing energy passing through the
trough over the Northeast US and East Canada will lead to a subtle
lowering of heights with time over the Ohio Valley. At the same
time, weak surface to 400 hPa mean flow will slowly advect higher
PWATs into the area from the south and west, with most of eastern
Kentucky having values near 2.0 inches by the end of the period on
Friday evening. With those higher PWATs will also come greater
instability (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) for locations near and west of
the I-75 corridor today, and across all of eastern Kentucky on
Friday. Shear will remain weak, though, so convection will be
largely of the pulse type. It does appear that Friday will have a
slightly better parameter space for the development of strong
water-loaded updrafts and the possibility of downbursts, though
strong outflow winds will be possible with stronger storms on either
day. Additionally, the high PWAT environment and slow to nearly
stationary storm motions could pose a threat of isolated heavy
rainfall from stronger storms on either day.

In sensible weather terms, look for a mostly to partly sunny
Thursday across eastern Kentucky after any valley fog burns off,
with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. High dew points between
70 and 75F will make those temperatures feel more like the mid
90s to near 100F. A few thunderstorms (30 to 40 PoP) are possible
this afternoon and evening, primarily near and west of I-75. For
tonight, look for variable cloud cover and the return of fog for
the favored valley locales. It will be muggy with lows in the
lower to middle 70s. For Friday, it will be partly sunny with
highs once again in the upper 80s to lower 90s, though with a
greater threat of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon
and evening (40 to 50 PoP over the Big Sandy and 50 to 70 PoP
elsewhere).

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026

The extended period opens with Eastern Kentucky at the beginning of
an active pattern as multiple rounds of showers and storms are
expected Friday evening and again during the afternoons Saturday
and Sunday. Monday will have a brief reprieve in active weather
before a stronger cold front passes through the area Tuesday
afternoon with more chances of showers and storms.

Diving into the details at the start of the period, a large ridge
of high pressure over the Intermountain West, along with
troughing across much of Central and Eastern Canada will leave the
Ohio Valley including Eastern Kentucky under quasi-zonal flow.
Under this flow regime multiple embedded shortwaves will spill
over the lee-side of the ridge into the Upper Midwest and Ohio
Valley. As mentioned above these shortwaves will tend to produce
showers and thunderstorms Friday evening, and again Saturday and
Sunday. During this timeframe, PWATs of 2.0-2.1 inches advect
into the area and potentially approach the 99th percentile
relative to climo. This anomalously moist environment coupled
with shower and storm chances has prompted the WPC to issue a
marginal risks for excessive rainfall 12Z Friday through 12Z
Sunday.

As one of the embedded shortwaves in the trough over Canada
progresses into the Northeast Sunday evening, Kentucky will find
itself in-between systems. The next upper level trough is modeled
to pass through the Great Lakes Monday evening, with the system`s
cold front passing through our area sometime Tuesday. Model
soundings suggest some of these storms have the potential to be on
the stronger side, with surface based CAPE near 3000 J/kg and
DCAPE over 1200 J/kg. Areas in or around any potential storm
within this environment may experience erratic and gusty winds.
Temperatures generally range from the mid to upper 80s during the
afternoon hours before cooling into the mid 60s to low 70s at
night through Tuesday. Somewhat cooler weather likely follows the
front mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026

In general, VFR conditions prevail at the TAF sites this
afternoon. A deeper cumulus field has developed across the
southwestern half of the forecast area, and these will yield
isolated to scattered showers later this afternoon. Confidence in
the strength and duration of this convection is low, so have
handled this with Prob30 groups at KJKL, KLOZ, and KSME for now.
Brief MVFR reductions and erratic wind gusts are possible wherever
the strongest activity tracks, with thunderstorms most likely at
KSME. Locally wet grounds and an overall increase in low-level
moisture relative to yesterday bolsters confidence in greater fog
coverage tonight. KSME and KLOZ are the most likely to fog, so
more significant vsby reductions have been explicitly included
there tomorrow morning. Elsewhere, TEMPOs cover the potential for
patchier fog. Once the fog lifts tomorrow morning, expect another
day of showers and storms, this time with wider spatial coverage.
Convection chances begin to increase at the very end of today`s
18z TAF period, especially at western terminals. Outside of any
showers and storms, expect generally light winds to adopt more of
a southwesterly orientation tomorrow.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARCUS
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...MARCUS