Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

033
FXUS63 KJKL 230149
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
849 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A major winter storm will bring significant snow and ice
  accumulations this weekend.

- Colder weather returns tonight and lasts through next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 845 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026

Forecast seems to be well in check thus far. A fairly benign night
overall. Loaded in the latest observations to make sure the near
term grids were on track with the current conditions, which only
resulted in some minor changes. All updates have been published
and sent to NDFD/web.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 313 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026

A huge upper trough persists over central and eastern North
America, with a series of surface cold fronts beneath it bringing
colder air southeast over the eastern CONUS. One such front passed
through the JKL forecast area this morning. There was no
significant moisture present with its passage, but cold air
advection continues this afternoon in its wake. High pressure
building in from the west will ease cold air advection tonight as
winds die off. Along with mainly clear skies lasting into
tonight, it will allow for noticeably colder low temperatures.

Another cold front currently over IA will pass through our area on
Friday morning. It will once again not have any moisture to work
with, but it will bring in even colder air as we move into the
weekend. Meanwhile, an upper low currently off the southern CA
coast will drop further southeast toward Baja California as
another impulse drops south over the western CONUS in the large
scale trough. Geopotential height rises will occur over the
southeast CONUS in advance of these features, flattening the flow
aloft over the southeast CONUS and allowing high clouds to
advance in from the west on Friday night as a precursor of the
weekend`s winter storm.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 547 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026

Saturday and Sunday a winter storm is poised to move across Eastern
Kentucky, producing periods of heavy snow, sleet, freezing rain, and
possibly rain across the area. At the open Saturday morning, An area
of high pressure will be present off to the northwest, as it sinks
south out of the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile a low pressure will track
along a stalled baroclinic zone out of south Texas, into the
Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley. Meanwhile a Gulf low will
aid in moisture transport north into the Tennessee valley.

Weather models and their ensembles continue to shift northward over
the last several runs. Additional notable changes include the
presence of a strong low level jet in recent model runs of the ECMWF
and the NAM. The presence of this low level jet can strengthen the
warm-nose aloft intruding northward into the southern parts of our
warning area in Eastern Kentucky. Since this signal has
strengthened, a wintry mix has become a more likely outcome along
and south of the Kentucky State Route 80, Hal Rogers Parkway
corridor. At present, this area can expect snowfall of 3 to 7 inches
in addition to a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain ranging from
0.1 to 0.4 inches. Further north, where colder air may remain more
entrenched, greater snowfall is expected. At current 7 to 12 inches
of snow is anticipated along and north of the Kentucky State Route
80 and the Hal Rogers Parkway corridor. There may also be a period
of wintry mixed precipitation such as sleet and freezing rain. At
current this would only total up to a tenth of an inch or less. A
Winter Storm Warning has been issued for all of Eastern Kentucky for
Saturday morning thorough Monday morning. A word of caution, with the
models continuing to trend northward, and the strengthening low
level jet, warmer air will cut into snow totals further if this
persists.

Temperatures Saturday will range greatly. At current, along and
north the I-64 corridor, temperatures will struggle to reach 20,
likely remaining in the teens. Mid 20s to lower 30s will then be
present south of the Parkway, with low 30s occurring along the state
boarder. At night, temperatures will cool into the teens for most of
the area, with low 20s near the stateline with bordering Tennessee
and Virginia. Sunday, a surge of warm air will help surface
temperatures warm into he upper 20s to low 40s from north to south
across the area. However, cold arctic air moves into the area behind
the system. While some snow showers may linger into Monday morning,
low temperatures will range from 5 to 15 above zero.

Monday, temperatures don`t recover much during the day. Except for
some lingering snow showers, dry conditions will be prevailing, with
temperatures reaching the teens to low 20s. Monday evening, as skies
clear some, temperatures will plummet generally ranging from 5 above
to 5 below zero. This will create dangerous wind chills as cold as
the negative teens.

Tuesday remains dry, with temperatures warming into the lower 20s to
low 30s from north to south, with lows ranging from 10 to 15
degrees. A cold front from a Great Lakes Low will move could move
across Eastern Kentucky on Wednesday morning, which would bring
scattered snow showers to the area. Temperatures are expected to
range from the upper 20s in the north to the mid 30s in the south.
Lows continue to cool into the single digits to low teens at night
Thursday, another upper level low looks to transit the Great Lakes.
This may lead to scattered snow showers in far eastern Kentucky.
Temperatures range from teens to upper 20s from north to south
across the area. Lows could be near zero at night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 849 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026

High pressure is still in place across eastern Kentucky, resulting
in fairly benign conditions - VFR CIGS and VIS and generally calm
winds. A weak and dry cold front is analyzed to move through
Friday morning, but should have little impact other than a wind
shift to the north (though still below 10kts) and possibly some
high clouds. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to persist
through the TAF period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Monday for
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.


&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JMW