Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

431
FXUS63 KJKL 240605 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
205 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Localized heavy rainfall may occur with showers & thunderstorms
  through much of the night.

- Wet weather will last through most of the upcoming week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 145 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
Did also incorporate some of the latest CAMs guidance into the
PoPs through dawn. These minor adjustments have been sent to the
NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

UPDATE Issued at 1042 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026

Convection continues to drift from southwest to northeast late
this evening. Coverage should slowly diminish over the next
several hours and this is well captured by the existing overnight
forecast. Only change was to blend the latest observations into
the hourly forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 712 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026

Convective coverage remains unremarkable and scattered this
evening. Still can`t rule out minor flooding if activity became
particularly persistent in a given location, but the threat of
flash flooding is too low to retain the Flood Watch and it has
been cancelled early.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 426 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026

A shortwave trough and associated weak surface low are departing
to our northeast late today. The system`s poorly defined, dying
cold front is in central KY. There`s been slightly more heating
today, and this is leading to shower/thunderstorm redevelopment
ahead of the front this afternoon in an uncapped atmosphere. Even
with heating, instability remains weak and the CAPE profile is
tall and thin. With modest, largely unidirectional flow in the
steering layer and decent PW of around 1.75", these factors may
give rise to localized heavy rainfall in training cells. With a
Flood Watch already in effect for our far northern counties where
significant rain occurred in recent days, will let it ride into
the evening. As activity wanes, it can likely be cancelled or
allowed to expire later.

It appears we`ll get brushed by another shortwave trough passing
eastward to our north on Sunday, coinciding with peak heating.
Without any significant change in our atmosphere, this should give
a proliferation of showers/thunderstorms which again fade on
Sunday night as heating is lost and the shortwave departs. The
same conditions again on Sunday could also allow for locally
heavy rainfall.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026

The forecast period starts with a surface low moving eastward out of
the Ohio Valley. This surface low is progged to drag a cold front
through the area first thing Monday morning. This will provide
showers and storms early in the day, followed by a lull in activity
for the afternoon. However, by late afternoon, a surface wave moving
through the Deep South is forecast to eject north and lift a warm
front through the CWA. Showers and storms are expected to increase
in coverage Monday afternoon and persist through the overnight hours
before the front stalls as a stationary boundary, oriented west to
east across the Commonwealth for Tuesday.

This wavering boundary is forecast to stall Tuesday and remain the
focus for shower and thunderstorm development throughout most of
next week. Forecast PWs, driven by stout moisture advection,
alongside skinny CAPE soundings, continue to hint at efficient
rainfall production along this boundary. This supports a forecast
total QPF ranging from over 1.25 inches in the Bluegrass/I-64
corridor to up to 2.00 inches farther south toward the Tennessee
border. These numbers will certainly fluctuate depending on
convective activity and where mesoscale bands or heavier rainfall
set up. However, long-term guidance does hint at a breakdown of this
wet and stormy pattern late in the week as the stationary front
drops south as a cold front, bringing an end to the precipitation.
Lastly, temperatures are forecast to remain rather seasonal with
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and overnight lows in the low to
mid 60s. Once the front sags south, temperatures will cool a few
degrees, with lows dropping into the 50s.

In summary, an active and unsettled weather pattern will dominate
the region into next week as a stationary boundary stalls across the
Commonwealth. Seasonal temperatures will remain overhead, but
persistent rainfall, which will be heavy at times, could bring an
increasing threat for river and flash flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026

Conditions were primarily VFR at TAF issuance outside any ongoing
scattered showers and thunderstorms and some patchy fog noted up
north. Coverage of the convective activity should generally become
more isolated through the night. However, showers could still
occur at about any time causing localized reductions below VFR.
Fog is possible through the night at just about any of the
terminals, as well, but extent is unclear due to variable cloud
cover. An increase in shower/thunderstorm coverage can be
expected through the day, with renewed flight category reductions.
However, forecast confidence on details and timing is only
modest at this time. Winds will be light and variable outside of
any thunderstorms.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF