Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

785
FXUS63 KJKL 210024 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
824 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rounds of shower and thunderstorms are anticipated over the
  next seven days, including the holiday weekend.

- The switch to an active and wetter pattern yields temperatures
  closer to normal readings, and is likely to provide at least
  temporary relief from drought conditions.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 820 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026

With the outflow boundary having exited our area, any remaining
convection should remain well below severe standards, and
convective coverage is expected to decrease for the next few hours with
the loss of daytime heating. Thus, the Severe Thunderstorm Watch
was cancelled early. Beyond that, temperature and dewpoint grids
were nudged to fit observations and account for rain cooled air
across eastern Kentucky.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 327 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026

The latest surface analysis shows a cold front slowly advancing into
the area from the west, tied to an occluding surface low presently
centered over the Canadian Maritimes. Showers and thunderstorms have
developed and are currently moving across northern portions of the
CWA. Outside of this ongoing convection, temperatures have climbed
into the low to mid-80s. Where showers and storms have already
occurred, temperatures have likely peaked for the day and will
remain mild.

Through the remainder of the day and into the overnight hours, the
cold front will continue to track eastward across the CWA,
triggering additional showers and storms through the late afternoon
and early evening. The SPC has placed the area under a Day 1
Marginal Risk for severe weather; however, this risk remains
marginal due to a widespread lack of favorable instability and shear
indices. This mornings convection depleted the available CAPE, and
what little CAPE managed to rebuild has already been utilized by
ongoing precipitation. The atmosphere has had insufficient time to
recover from the morning activity, limiting afternoon thunderstorm
intensification. Nevertheless, frontal forcing will sustain shower
and thunderstorm development, though the potential for strong to
severe storms remains low. Temperatures have largely peaked,
especially across the north where the diurnal curve was disrupted,
but dry locations may warm another degree or two into the mid-80s.
Showers with isolated thunder will persist overnight, keeping
temperatures mild with lows dropping into the low to mid-60s.

On Thursday, weak surface high pressure centered over the Great
Lakes will build into the region as Wednesdays cold front exits to
the southeast. Post-frontal temperatures are forecast to be about 10
degrees cooler than Wednesday. However, this cool-down will be short-
lived. A disturbance currently over the Desert Southwest will move
across the Southern Plains and into the Ozarks. As this surface
perturbation ejects northeastward along the residual zone of
baroclinicity, the decaying cold front will lift back north through
the CWA as a warm front. Ahead of and along this boundary, shower
and thunderstorm chances will increase overnight Thursday into
Friday, accompanied by warming overnight temperatures.

A slow-moving cold front tied to a Canadian Maritimes low will track
eastward across the CWA through tonight, triggering showers and
thunderstorms. While frontal forcing will sustain this activity,
severe weather potential remains low due to a stable environment
left behind by widespread morning convection. High temperatures will
top out in the mid-80s today before dropping into the low to mid-60s
overnight. High pressure brings briefly cooler conditions on
Thursday with highs down about 10 degrees. However, a southern
Plains disturbance will quickly lift the decaying boundary back
northward as a warm front, bringing renewed shower and thunderstorm
chances alongside warming temperatures Thursday night into Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 618 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026

The long wave pattern will remain amplified and stagnant through
the middle of next week. An upper level ridge will remain
anchored over the southeastern CONUS. Broad troughing will reign
over the central CONUS through the first part of the holiday
weekend, before deeper troughing moves in from the eastern
Pacific, and a cutoff low moves onshore over the West Coast early
next week. Downstream, either a REX block emerges, or at least
sharper ridging becomes aligned from south central Canada through
the Upper Midwest, Ohio Valley, and into the Southeast. For
eastern Kentucky, the wetter pattern will continue into early
next week, combatting the ongoing drought conditions across the
Commonwealth. Some isolated flash flooding will also be possible
at times, but only if locations see repeated rounds of more
significant rainfall, given the well below normal streamflows
currently seen across the area.

On Friday, widespread showers, along with scattered thunderstorms,
will fill in across the area, as a short wave trough moves
northeast from the lower/middle Mississippi Valley into the Ohio
Valley. At the surface, low pressure will deepen and follow suit,
gradually escorting a warm front back north of eastern Kentucky
through early Saturday. Widespread PoPs will continue on Saturday,
as the aforementioned surface low`s cold front creeps southeast
towards our area. There remains uncertainty with exactly how the
pattern evolves into next week. In general, PoPs will likely
become more diurnally influenced with time, as the remnant frontal
boundary gradually weakens and becomes more diffuse each
successive day after Monday. As such, blended PoPs may be too
aggressive, especially Tuesday through Wednesday.

Temperatures throughout the extended portion of the forecast will
average slightly above normal, with lows mainly in the 60s, and
highs in the upper 70s to around 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026

Most sites are VFR; however, showers and thunderstorms have
developed ahead of an approaching cold front. This will cause
increasing coverage of showers and storms across the area with
all sites falling into MVFR over the next few hours. Showers and
storms are forecast through the TAF window as slow frontal passage
occurs. This will favor lowered CIGs and VSBY and TAFs will
fall from VFR to MVFR/IFR and remaining there through the TAF
window. Outside of thunderstorms winds will generally be light;
however, thunderstorms could create gusty and erratic winds.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAGAN/JP
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...VORST