Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

517
FXUS63 KJKL 251826
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
226 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will soar to 15 to 20 degrees above normal on Thu.
  A strong cold front will then bring widespread showers and a
  chance of thunderstorms on Friday.

- Much colder air returns behind the cold front for the weekend,
  bringing the potential for widespread sub-freezing temperatures
  Friday and Saturday nights.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 217 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026

Low-amplitude ridging within mid-level west-northwesterly flow aloft
will give way to low-amplitude troughing through the short-term
period, with the southern edge of the mid-latitude jet stream
beginning to impinge on the southern Ohio River Valley region
Thursday night. At the surface, southwest flow will gradually
increase through the short-term period, culminating in a cold front
moving over the area from the northwest at the end of the period
Friday morning.

Southwest flow will continue to increase into this evening, with the
lower atmosphere gradually moistening with time, slowest in the
northeastern part of the forecast area where a dry air mass will
remain stubborn. The big question mark with the forecast is the
expected development of a convective system over Illinois this
evening and its progression downstream toward eastern Kentucky. Most
of the 12z guidance that has arrived so far have trended northward
with this system, keeping it centered along or north of the Ohio
River and only brushing our northern counties, while the 12z FV3
model continues to move it southeast and has it fall apart as it
moves through eastern Kentucky. Regardless of the areas where this
impacts, a quick rebound in clearing is expected with a warm and
breezy day expected across eastern Kentucky, with humidity also
increasing.

The aforementioned cold front begins to move into the northern
counties toward dawn Friday, with a very mild night expected
Thursday night as southwesterly winds continue through the overnight
until the frontal passage. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
move into the area along and behind the front. The SPC has removed
all of our counties in the JKL forecast area from the Marginal Risk
in the Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook, with CAMS suggesting strong
capping ahead of the front and a rather elevated look to the
convection above a stable layer in model soundings behind the front
as precipitation moves into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 226 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026

As a surface low progresses away from the Great Lakes and into
Northern Quebec, a trailing cold front will extend southwest from
the Great Lakes, through the Ohio Valley. This cold front is
expected to move into the Commonwealth from the northwest
sometime early Friday morning. With stern southwesterly winds
advecting in warm air through the night, temperatures may stay
elevated in the upper 50s to mid 60s ahead of the approaching cold
front.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely through Friday moving across
the area from northwest to southeast, with colder and drier air
working into the region behind the front. While not as strong as
some of the previous cold fronts Eastern Kentucky has seen, this one
will still drop temperatures through the morning and afternoon. High
temperatures in the mid to upper 60s will likely occur early in the
morning. By 18Z (2 PM EDT), temperatures may range from the upper
40s to upper 60s from north to south.

Friday evening into Saturday, some isolated to scattered rain-snow
showers are possible along the VA/TN/KY border before high pressure
begins to build back into the region. Skies will clear out fairly
quickly overnight, allowing for temperatures to drop into the upper
20s to low 30s. Widespread frost will be likely with temperatures
this cold under light winds and somewhat clear skies. Winds remain
out of the north through Saturday, continuing to usher in drier air.

By Saturday morning, high pressure will be located somewhere in the
Ozarks, crossing the Ohio Valley through the day.
Northerly winds continue through Saturday before becoming
northeasterly in the evening. Dew points in the teens with RH values
in the 20s are forecasted, however, models tend to struggle with
this type of setup. Dew points were blended with the 10th percentile
of the NBM. Fire weather conditions are elevated Saturday with
critical RH values. However winds will remain light and northerly.
Temperatures generally remain in the 50s across the area. Saturday
night, light and variable winds and clear skies will allow
temperatures to fall near the freezing mark of 32. Patchy areas of
frost may be possible with the above listed conditions.

Overall, a quiet Sunday is expected with dry conditions and light
southerly winds. Temperatures look to warm into the 60s for most of
the areas under a mix of sun and clouds. With light southerly winds
and somewhat clear skies ahead of another disturbance some ridge-
valley splits in temperatures could be observed, however current
conditions (pressure gradient of 4-5 mb) over the area may lean
towards valleys staying mixed. With no ridge-valley splits,
temperatures are forecasted to range from the mid to upper 40s. If
however some ridge-valley splits were to be realized, some valleys
could get into the upper 30s to low 40s.

Southerly flow continues across Eastern Kentucky through Wednesday
next week leading to WAA and temperatures warming into the low 70s
on Monday, mid to upper 70s on Tuesday, and upper 70s to low 80s
Wednesday of next week. A few weather disturbances may move across
the area in the Monday-Wednesday timeframe, with maybe a shower or
two, though model agreement is still wide. The Climate Prediction
Center`s 8-14 day outlook for temperatures have Eastern Kentucky in
a 80-90% probability of above normal conditions, while the 8-14 day
precipitation outlook has most of the area under a 33-40% chance of
above normal (leaning above normal) precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period, with
thin upper clouds being replaced by a lower to middle cloud deck
approaching from the west late tonight into the post-dawn hours
associated with a cluster of showers and possible thunderstorms.
This activity will be more likely to impact northern terminals
than southern terminals, and could bring reductions into the MVFR
category for a brief time. Additionally, a warm front will lift
northeast across the area late tonight bringing some LLWS. Where
breezy conditions are indicated at the surface tonight but no
mention of LLWS, be advised that if winds decouple then LLWS will
occur. Otherwise, southwest winds between 5 and 10 kts with gusts
to around 15 kts at times will continue into the overnight, with
winds becoming stronger toward the end of the TAF period as a cold
front approaches.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC