Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

898
FXUS63 KJKL 071244
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
744 AM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very cold temperatures will last into Sunday, with another
  small chance of light snow on Sunday (generally northeast of the
  Cumberland drainage basin).

- A dramatic warming will occur early in the new week, with
  temperatures reaching the upper 50s to mid 60s Tuesday
  afternoon.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 743 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026

Flurries have been removed and early morning temperatures and sky
conditions have been blended into the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 541 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026

Snow showers have tapered to flurries in the VA border counties,
and the Winter Weather Advisory is cancelled.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 358 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026

Arctic air invading on brisk northerly winds early this morning
is producing snow showers as steep lapse rates in the cooling
lower levels interact with lingering moisture in the DGZ. Drier
air arriving is bringing an end to the precip from northwest to
southeast, and any flurries remaining after sunrise will be short-
lived.

High pressure will build in from the north during the day under
northwest flow aloft, allowing for decreasing clouds and
slackening winds. That sets us up for a cold night as light
winds, mostly clear skies, and snow remaining on the ground over
most of the area allow for strong radiational cooling to start the
night. Think that the coldest eastern valleys will drop well into
the single digits. An increase in clouds overnight should halt
the drop in temperatures and even allow for warming before dawn.

The increasing clouds will be associated with a weak shortwave
trough aloft which will pass through on Sunday. 00Z model runs
are showing a southwestward shift in the effects of this wave.
The early morning forecast overhaul includes a 20-30% POP for
light snow in our northeastern counties on Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 327 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026

Sunday night, a combination of light winds, clearing skies, mostly
clear skies (at least to start the night), and lingering snow/ice
pack will allow for temperatures to drop into the teens to mid 20s.
NBM provided a decent starting point, however local terrain under
these conditions can result in a 5-10 degree difference from valley
and ridgetop locations. These adjustments have been made.

Monday, light surface winds will become southerly through the day,
aligning with 500-mb height rises aloft. In turn, warm air will
advect in through the day, leading to temperatures warming into the
mid to upper 40s in the northeast, and mid to upper 50s in the
southwest. Monday night will be warmer than Sunday night, though
similar in the way ridge-valley spits are expected to occur under
light southerly winds, clearing skies, and remaining snow/ice pack.
Temperatures will generally be in the upper 20s to lower 30s in the
valleys, with mid to upper 30s along ridgetops.

Tuesday, a low in the southwest begins to progress eastward across
Mexico and Texas. The system approaches the Mid-Mississippi Valley
late Tuesday. The area will continue to see warm air advecting in,
ahead of showers later that evening and overnight. Temperatures are
expected to warm into the upper 50s to mid 60s across Eastern
Kentucky on Tuesday. Shower chances remain overnight Tuesday through
Wednesday, as the system passes through the area. Overnight lows
will generally range anywhere from the low to mid 40s.

Towards the later half of the week (Thursday onward), the wave that
previously moved into the area, weakens and stalls a bit. Meanwhile,
an upper-level trough passing through the Ohio valley will bring an
end to the warming trend, with some cooler air moving back into
parts of Kentucky. It bares mentioning that these cooler conditions
are still warmer than what we`ve just experienced. Models and
ensembles are hinting that the next active period of active weather
could be around the end of the week, we`ll just have to monitor how
far south that cooler air across the Ohio Valley works down.
For nor, temperatures are generally expected to remain in the 40 or
low 50s during the day, with lows around 30 at night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 620 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026

MVFR ceilings and a few flurries lingered in most places within
about 40 NM of the TN border at TAF issuance. The ceilings and
flurries will be dissipating this morning, leaving VFR conditions
area wide to last through the rest of the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...HAL