Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

658
FXUS63 KJKL 241928
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
328 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A very dry air mass will settle over the region, dropping
  afternoon humidity levels into the 10 to 20 percent range today,
  and still sub-30 percent for most areas on Wednesday.

- Temperatures will soar to 15 to 20 degrees above normal on Thu.
  A strong cold front will then bring numerous to widespread
  showers and a chance of thunderstorms late Thu night into Fri.

- Much colder air returns behind the front this weekend, bringing
  the potential for widespread sub-freezing temperatures Fri and
  Sat nights.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 328 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026

A dry air mass remains in place with high pressure generating
light easterly downslope breezes off of the Appalachians.
Meanwhile, patchy high clouds are moving toward the area within
west-northwesterly flow aloft ahead of a weak disturbance. These
clouds are not expected to have much impact on what is expected to
be a significant ridge-valley split in temperatures overnight,
with 40s on the ridges and upper 20s to lower 30s in the
sheltered valleys under good radiational cooling conditions.

The surface high pressure begins to move well east of the area
during the day Wednesday, with southwesterly flow and warm
advection increasing gradually. Temperatures, humidity, and south
to southwesterly winds will begin to increase, though conditions
will remain quite dry in general and winds still fairly light.

A relatively strong cold front will organize and move closer to
the region Wednesday night. An MCS is expected to develop
Wednesday evening upstream in the vicinity of the Mid-Mississippi
River Valley as a strong low-level jet develops, and this
convective cluster is likely to move in the general direction of
northern and eastern Kentucky overnight. This system may begin to
impact northern and western parts of the forecast area during the
pre-dawn hours Thursday morning, though it is expected this
activity will be on a weakening trend as it does so.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026

At the open of the long-term period, Thursday morning, 500-mb height
contours show a subtropical high over Mexico and surrounding states
across the south. Perturbations in the overall flow generally remain
north of this area of high pressure. Among some of these
perturbations, an Alberta Clipper type low transits the country from
Southern Alberta today, making it into the Upper Great Lakes region
by Thursday morning. In addition to the above surface low, a weak
shortwave from around the Rockies will also slowly move east through
Thursday. Showers and possibly some thunderstorms along the second
systems warm front develop or work into the Ohio Valley, including
portions of Eastern Kentucky late Wednesday night through portions
of Thursday morning.

Through Thursday, stern southwesterly winds of 10-20 mph bring warm
moist air into the region. Winds could also gust up to 25-30 mph
during the afternoon. With this added WAA, temperatures climb into
the upper 70s to low 80s across the area. As the Alberta Low works
through the Great Lakes on Thursday, a trailing cold front will
slowly dig southeast through the Ohio Valley back towards the
Ozarks. Frontogenesis forms south of the Great Lakes early
Thursday evening, with FROPA arriving sometime early Friday morning.
Temperatures Thursday night cool into the low to upper 40s across
the northwest, and upper 50s further south. There may be some weak
ridge-valley splits, however a pressure gradient of 5-mb or so
across the area may keep most of the valleys mixed through the
night, even under some what clear skies to start and light
southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely through Friday moving across
the area from northwest to southeast, before colder and drier air
works into the region behind the front. Friday will also feature a
near 20 degree gradient in high temperatures from the northern most
location (highs in the mid 50s), to the southern most areas along
the Tennessee border (highs in the low to mid 70s).

Friday evening into Saturday, some isolated to scattered rain-snow
shower is possible along the VA/TN/KY border before high pressure
begins to build back into the region. Skies will clear out fairly
quickly overnight, allowing for temperatures to drop into the
upper 20s to low 30s. The formation of frost will be possible with
temperatures this cold under light winds and somewhat clear
skies. Winds remain out of the north through Saturday, continuing
to usher in drier air.

By Saturday morning, high pressure is expected to be
located somewhere in the Ozarks, crossing the Ohio Valley through
the day. This will bring northerly and perhaps northeasterly winds
into the area. At present dew points in the teens with RH values in
the teens in the east to upper 20s in the west are forecasted,
however, models tend to struggle with this type of setup. Fire
weather conditions are elevated Saturday with critical RH values.
However winds will remain light and northerly. Temperatures will
generally remain in the 50s across the area. Saturday night, with
light and variable winds and clear skies, temperatures will fall to
near the freezing mark of 32. patchy areas of frost may be possible
with the above listed conditions. Overall, a quiet Sunday is
expected  with dry conditions and light southerly winds. Temperatures
look to warm into the 60s for most of the areas under a mix of sun
and clouds. With light southerly winds and somewhat clear skies
ahead of another disturbance some ridge-valley splits in
temperatures could be observed, however current conditions (pressure
gradient of 5 mb) over the area may lean towards valleys staying
mixed. With no ridge-valley splits, temperatures are forecasted to
range from the mid to upper 40s. If however some ridge-valley splits
were to be realized, some valleys could get into the upper 30s to
low 40s.

Southerly flow continues across Eastern Kentucky through Tuesday next
week leading to WAA and temperatures warming into the 70s each day.
the next weather disturbance to move across the area looks to be in
the Monday-Tuesday timeframe though finer details should be
available later.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026

VFR conditions will continue at the TAF sites through the
forecast period as high pressure passes over the Upper Ohio Valley
today and settles off the Mid-Atlantic coast by Wednesday. Only
some high and mid-level clouds are anticipated from time to time
across eastern Kentucky. In this pattern, northeast to easterly
winds at less than 10 kts are expected through today. Winds will
gradually veer to southerly or southwesterly between 12z and 18z
Wednesday as high pressure moves farther away to the east and
return flow develops ahead of the next cold front expected to
arrive Friday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC