Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

140
FXUS63 KJKL 211142
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
742 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rounds of shower and thunderstorms are anticipated over the
  next seven days, including the holiday weekend.

- The switch to an active and wetter pattern yields temperatures
  closer to normal readings, and is likely to provide at least
  temporary relief from drought conditions.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 742 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026

Made a quick update to hourly T/Tds based on latest observations.
Otherwise, there are no changes to the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 459 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026

Updated PoPs through the remainder of this morning based on the
latest model trends. Also removed mention of thunder from the
grids until after dawn Friday based on continued model trends and
the expected thermodynamic environment across the area through
that time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 338 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026

A strongly sheared shortwave disturbance will slowly advance east
and northeast across the Upper Tennessee, southeastern Ohio River
Valley through late this evening, and then exit east across the
Central Appalachians ahead of shortwave ridging over the Ohio
River Valley late tonight into early Friday. A more amplified
shortwave disturbance extending from the center of the country
into the Deep South then moves northeast across TN and Ohio
Valleys through the day Friday. At the surface, a cold front
stalls over far southeastern Kentucky later today and tonight
before moving back north as a warm front Friday with the
aforementioned trailing shortwave crossing the area.

For today, a fairly widespread rain will move gradually east in
association with the sheared shortwave that will make very slow
eastward progression within the southwesterly flow aloft, while
weak cold advection with light north and northeast winds keep a
steady push of cooler air into the area to the north of the cold
front. The result will be a mostly dreary day along and north of
the cold front with low clouds and periods of rain/showers, with
some gradual improvement in skies from the northwest as the
shortwave advances east later today into tonight. To the south of
the front, sufficient weak instability will exist such that any
partial clearing and heating may be enough to fire off a few
thunderstorms, so areas south of the KY Highway 80 corridor will
be most likely to see a storm today.

The trailing shortwave arrives Friday and brings a deep fetch of
warm air and moisture from the Gulf. As the warm front lifts
north across the area, the warm front will pivot from a west-east
direction over eastern Kentucky to a north-south direction, with
drier air on the east side owing to some weak downsloping across
far eastern Kentucky. However, to the west and south of the warm
front, sufficient yet weak instability and shear may exist for a
stronger thunderstorm over parts of the area, and the SPC has
placed a Marginal Risk for Friday in its Day 2 Convective Outlook
for mainly central into parts of northeastern Kentucky, with the
primary severe weather threats being isolated damaging winds and a
brief weak tornado or two.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 338 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026

The long wave pattern will remain amplified and stagnant through the
middle of next week. An upper level ridge will remain anchored from
north of the Bahamas into the southeastern CONUS and Gulf. Broad
troughing will reign over the central CONUS through the first part
of the holiday weekend, before deeper troughing moves into the
western Conus from the eastern Pacific, and a closed low moves
onshore over the West Coast early next week. As the weekend ends,
the northern portion of the Central Canadian to Central Conus trough
moves east northeast into the Great Lakes passing north of the OH
River. Downstream, either a REX block emerges, or at least
sharper ridging becomes aligned from south central Canada through
the Upper Midwest, Ohio Valley, and into the Southeast. At the
same time the southern portion of this trough should close off
over eastern TX before opening up and drawn north across sections
of the Central Conus as the upper trough over the western Conus
approaches the High plains. For eastern Kentucky, the wetter
pattern will continue into early next week, combatting the ongoing
drought conditions across the Commonwealth. Some isolated flash
flooding will also be possible at times, but only if locations see
repeated rounds of more significant rainfall, given the well
below normal streamflows currently seen across the area.

On Friday night, widespread showers, along with isolated to
scattered thunderstorms should remain prevalent as a short wave
trough moves northeast from the middle Mississippi Valley into the
Ohio Valley. At the surface, low pressure will deepen and follow
suit, gradually escorting a warm front back north of eastern
Kentucky through early Saturday. Widespread PoPs will continue on
Saturday, as the aforementioned surface low`s cold front creeps
southeast towards our area.

There remains uncertainty with exactly how the pattern evolves
into next week. In general, PoPs will likely become more diurnally
influenced with time, as the remnant frontal boundary gradually
weakens and becomes more diffuse each successive day after Monday.
As such, blended PoPs may be too aggressive, especially Tuesday
through Wednesday.

Temperatures throughout the extended portion of the forecast will
average slightly above normal, with lows mainly in the 60s, and
highs in the upper 70s to around 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026

Widespread light rain, showers, low cigs, and fog will cause
prolonged MVFR and lower conditions through the period, with the
possible exception of southwest sites (i.e., KLOZ and KSME)
toward the end of the period when conditions may begin improving
with the approach of a disturbance and surface warm front. Any
mention of thunderstorms has been removed as it appears conditions
will be too stable to support such. Winds will remain light
through the period, generally no more than 7 kts and primarily out
of the northeast.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...JKL/JP
AVIATION...CMC