Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

925
FXUS63 KJKL 011207
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
807 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid weather persists at quite oppressive levels
  through the rest of the week, likely peaking on Thursday.

- Mostly dry weather is anticipated through Thursday, before
  chances for showers and storms return to end the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 619 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2026

No major changes needed for this update. However, did issues an
SPS for locally dense fog given some of the KYTC cams and
observations. This fog will lift between 8 and 9 am and we will be
left with mostly sunny skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2026

The morning surface analysis shows high pressure remains parked
off to the southeast, with strong mid-level heights at 596mb at
00Z at near by upper air sites. These heights are running around
99th percentile for this time of year. There is good agreement
for these features to remain nearby or overhead for the short term
period. This morning the biggest impact will be the typical
morning fog mainly confined to the river valleys. This fog will
lift out through the morning and should be sunny areawide by 9
AM.

Then yet another day of summer heat will be in store for eastern
Kentucky. The NBM has been running on the hotter side, so did opt
to make some adjustments toward some of the other model blends
through the short term for afternoon highs. Even so ample moisture
combined with afternoon highs in the 90s will lead to near 100 or
higher heat indices values again today. This will be day 2 of 4
consecutive days with heat indices in the 105 degree range. There
will be some diurnally driven cumulus today, but these will
remain capped noted by strong inversion within the forecast
soundings. Then tonight, expect another night of clear skies, with
yet another round of river valley fog. The lows will only fall
into the lower 70s, with small ridge/valley splits of maybe 1-2
degrees.

Thursday, we see some differences in the guidance, but overall
the high pressure and higher mid-level heights remain in place.
However, some of the short term models and even other guidance
does start to show convection developing on the periphery of the
mid-level high. Right now confidence was too low to start
introducing any appreciable PoPs given the inversion noted in the
forecast soundings, but did opt to lean toward 10-14 PoP toward
the Cumberland Plateau. This trend in the guidance will have to be
watched if something can develop there would be ample instability
with MUCAPE values in the 3000-4000 J/kg range to maintain
convection. Either way, this should be isolated and storms would
make little if any progression given the lack steering flow. While
not in our area SPC does have a day 2 marginal just to our south
in the Tennessee Valley. The biggest concern that remains will be
the heat and humidity leading to yet another hot and muggy day,
with heat indices getting back close to 105. Given this the
Extreme Heat Warning will remain in effect and would be the 3 of 4
consecutive days of heat indices at or around the 105 degree
range.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2026

As well noted by now, high pressure has been perched over the
area through the better part of the week. By Thursday evening
shortwave energy passing to the north, in the Upper Great Lakes,
will have flattened the ridge as it also slowly nudges off to the
east. Patchy valley fog may develop around or near the typically
river valley locations.

By Friday, models and ensembles depict the area of high pressure
over the coastal Carolinas. By Saturday the high progresses further
east out over the Atlantic, as a surface low over the Lower Great
Lakes region, features a cold front trailing back across the Ohio
Valley. While the departure of the dominant high pressure leads to
some reprieve from hot temperatures, it will remain hot and muggy.

Each afternoon, scattered storm chances return as storms will
generally be diurnally driven. With modeled PWAT around 1.6 inches,
storms will have the potential to produce breif yet heavy downpours.
In fact, the WPC has issued a Day 5 Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for
Excessive Rainfall. They note in their discussion that they`re
casting a wider net to account for a potential MCS with training
storm potential. A series of shortwaves will bring continued
scattered storm chances through next Tuesday.

Temperatures Friday and Independence Day will likely range from the
mid to upper 90s, with Friday the hotter of the two days.
Temperatures warm into the upper 80s to low 90s Sunday and beyond,
as Eastern Kentucky gets out from under the thumb of the persistent
high pressure. In the evenings, temperatures generally remain in the
low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 807 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2026

High pressure will keep weather quiet through the TAF period. We
are seeing some mostly river valley fog sneak into some of the
TAF sites this morning and this is causing some temporary
restrictions. This fog will lift over the next hour and sites will
be left with VFR skies through the TAF period. We will have some
afternoon cumulus this afternoon, but these should be above MVFR
levels. They will also struggle to rise given the inversion in
place. There could another night of temporary restrictions late
tonight into Thursday morning, but did not include in the TAFs
given uncertainty. This high pressure will also provide light
winds through the period generally below 5 knots.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...DJ