Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

616
FXUS63 KJKL 030900
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
500 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Persistent southwest winds, breezy in the afternoons, will
  continue pushing warmer-than-average and seasonably moist air
  into eastern Kentucky into the weekend.

- Expect a couple more days with highs in the upper 70s to mid
  80s, and mild overnight temperatures bottoming in the 50s and
  60s - through Saturday.

- Look for daily small chances for showers and storms until a
  stronger cold front moves through the region Saturday evening
  and overnight. Cooler temperatures follow for Sunday and the
  start of the new week.

- Any showers and storms will provide some needed rainfall across
  portions of eastern Kentucky.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 500 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2026

08Z sfc analysis shows eastern Kentucky still between high
pressure off to the southeast and a slowly approaching weather
system to the west. This has placed the area in the large warm
sector of the next weather maker along with persistent southwest
flow. A remnant and dying boundary is slipping into northwest
parts of the JKL CWA with a band of showers - perhaps bringing
down some gustier winds, at times. Some thinner clouds out ahead
of this boundary did allow for a bit of extra cooling for many of
the eastern valleys. Temperatures currently range from some
isolated mid 50s in those sheltered spots to the upper 60s and
lower 70s on ridges and in the more open terrain. Meanwhile, amid
southerly winds of 5 to 10 mph - with some higher gusts in the
northwest closer to the inbound boundary, dewpoints are running
in the low 50s east to near 60 degrees in the west.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, continue
to be in very good agreement aloft through the short term portion
of the forecast. They all depict an initial 5h shortwave passing
northeast of Kentucky early this morning dragging a weakening
band of energy through the area pre-dawn. In its wake, heights
will briefly and marginally climb as a ridge to east temporarily
expands across the southern Appalachians later today. At the same
time, a stronger, closed trough will be working north of east
through the Northern Plains. This will support a tightening of the
southwest mid-level flow through Kentucky and the Ohio Valley
tonight. Heights locally will not really start to fall from this
secondary wave until later on Saturday just as more energy pushes
into the region while the parent trough lifts northeast to the
northern Great Lakes. Since the model solutions remain fairly well
aligned through the short term portion of the forecast, the NBM
was used as the starting point for the grids. The main adjustments
to this initialization were to incorporate more in the way of
details from the latest higher resolution CAMs for small PoPs and
thunder chances through Saturday morning before the more
substantial showers and storms of the front move into our area by
that evening.

Sensible weather features a couple more days of unseasonably warm
days and nights with breezy afternoon conditions on southwest
winds - rather gusty on Saturday just ahead of the front`s
arrival. Still see a potential for some cooler valleys tonight,
amid overall warm conditions, before the southwest winds pick up
towards dawn and mix out any temperature differences. Increasing
winds aloft with the front and trough (also better instability)
will mean a threat for strong to severe storms - especially
north - Saturday afternoon and into the evening with gusty winds
and hail as the main threat. This front should also bring a
thorough soaking of rain to the area by Sunday which is needed to
ease fire weather concerns after two weeks or so of nearly dry
weather.

The changes to the NBM starting point mainly consisted of
including more details in the PoPs grids on account of the latest
CAMs guidance today through Saturday afternoon. In this now
rather moist environment, temperatures and dewpoints were kept
mostly untouched from the NBM though again did allow for some
terrain-based radiative cooling effects during the first part of
tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM EDT THU APR 2 2026

The extended forecast period begins with the CWA firmly in the warm
sector as the primary surface low tracks northeast from the Mid-
Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes. The associated cold front
will approach the area on Saturday. PoPs will increase from west to
east Saturday morning, with widespread showers and thunderstorms
expected throughout the day. Some storms may become strong Saturday
afternoon, particularly for areas along and north of the Mountain
Parkway where better forcing resides. Forecast soundings ahead of
the front indicate marginal severe weather indices, consistent with
the SPC Day 3 Marginal Risk across the northeastern CWA. The cold
front will progress through the region Saturday night, with FROPA
expected to be complete by Sunday morning.

Behind the front, surface high pressure will build into the region
and remain the dominant feature through the remainder of the period.
Temperatures will return to seasonal normals for the early part of
next week, followed by a gradual warming trend toward the middle of
the week. Overall, the extended period will be defined by the
Saturday cold frontal passage followed by a return to dry conditions
and seasonal temperatures under high pressure.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2026

VFR conditions are found at all TAF sites at the 06Z issuance.
Marginal LLWS is expected to continue across much of the area
tonight as a southwesterly low-level jet ramps up. Toward
12Z, the weak remnants of a convective system to our west will
inch closer to the area with light precipitation chances,
primarily northwest of SJS-JKL-SME. Should a storm manage to
impact a terminal some MVFR or worse conditions will ensue.
Otherwise, southerly winds around 10 kts or less through the night
will become more southwesterly and strengthen after 12Z,
persisting through the rest of the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GREIF