Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

954
FXUS63 KJKL 060021 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
721 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quick-hitting snowfall could impact travellers on Friday. Most
  locations northeast of Highway 15 can expect one (locally two)
  inch of accumulation, with rain or a mix occurring to the
  southwest.

- Higher terrain near the Virginia border will see heavier
  snowfall totals of two to four inches through sunrise Saturday.
  This includes accumulation from additional snow showers Friday
  night.

- An arctic front late Friday evening brings isolated snow squall
  threat and strong wind gusts to 30+ mph.

- Cold air lingers Saturday before a major warm-up. Temperatures
  will soar from the 20s on Saturday to the 50s/60s by Tuesday
  afternoon.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 710 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026

Minor adjustments were made to hourly grids based on recent
observation trends. This led to no substantial changes at this
time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 421 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026

Variable cloud cover and cold temperatures are noted across
eastern Kentucky late this afternoon. Thermometers range from the
20s to low 30s at lower elevations. The stratus deck over
southeastern Kentucky has finally broken into shallow stratocumulus
for most locations as surface high pressure ridging noses
northeast from the Western Gulf Coast. However, mid and high level
clouds are already racing in from the west on mid-level WAA as a
disturbance drops southeast into the Commonwealth on the backside
of a high amplitude trough extending from Eastern Canada to the
Florida Gulf Coast. Under that parent trough, an ~998 mb surface
low is situated along the southern shore of Hudson Bay while its
cold front trails westward through the Southern Canadian Prairie
Provinces.

This last system will be the primary sensible weather maker
during the short-term period. Sure, there will be widespread warm
air advection cloud cover across eastern Kentucky this evening and
tonight, but abundant low-level dry air will inhibit anything
more than perhaps a stray flurry under the strongest of radar
echoes. Rather, impactful winter weather will hold off until late
Friday morning when the models are in good agreement showing the
aforementioned system`s cold front racing southeast toward the
Commonwealth ahead of a strong 500 hPa vort max which will be
initiating cyclogenesis along the boundary as it crosses the Ohio
Valley. The system`s developing warm sector will be drawing in
warm enough air to result in rain or a mixed bag of precipitation
for most locations southwest of KY-15, while thermal profiles are
expected to remain cold enough for all or nearly all snow farther
northeast. The overall impacts from the system should be
relatively brief due to the system`s forward speed. However, the
dynamics with this system will be robust with a combination of
strong 300 hPa left exit divergence and a strong 850 hPa warm
conveyor belt jet approaching 60 kts. The strong synoptic forcing
combined with conditional symmetric and even perhaps limited
elevated upright instability with moderate to strong lift through
the DGZ should be supportive of at least briefly heavy snowfall
rates, and there could be localized surprise totals if high rates
persist for long over a given location.

Precipitation onset is currently expected north of I-64 around 9
AM and quickly diving southeast to the KY-VA border by 11 AM. The
precipitation then tapers off entirely around 3 PM north of I-64
and to upslope snow showers/drizzle farther southeast along the
KY-VA border by around 5 PM. There will then be a much sharper
secondary arctic cold front plunging in from the north late Friday
evening. This is expected to force a line of snow showers and
possibly one or more embedded squalls, followed by strong
northerly winds gusting to 30 mph or stronger. With road
temperatures likely only marginally near freezing in many areas by
Friday evening, any isolated squall could lead to a quick
freezeup locally. However, outside of any squalls, the strong
winds behind the cold front should tend to wick away liquid
moisture before it freezes. Those winds will also send 925 hPa
temperatures tumbling to between -15 and -20C toward sunrise.
Also, while most locations are only expected to experience
flurries or a brief snow shower after the arctic front departs
into VA by/before midnight, upslope snow showers are expected to
continue over the high terrain adjacent to the KY-VA border. Two
Winter Weather Advisory segments were issued to cover this event:
the first advisory covers only the quick-hitting system tomorrow
for around 1 inch (locally 2 inches) accumulations for counties
northeast of KY-15; the second advisory is for Pike, Letcher, and
Harlan counties for 1 to 2 inches of accumulation in the lower
elevations and 2 to 4 inches above 2,000 feet and covers both the
quick-hitting system on Friday and also the lingering upslope
snow showers and any squalls that persist Friday night.

In sensible weather terms, look for mostly cloudy skies tonight
and widespread lows in the lower to mid 20s, locally 10s north of
I-64. Snow quickly develops from northwest to southeast Friday
morning, with rain and sleet mixing in southwest of KY-15. Maximum
temperatures should range from the mid 30s northeast of KY-15 to
the upper 30s/lower 40s farther southwest. That snow tapers off in
the afternoon as quickly as it arrives, with most places
northeast of KY-15 picking up a quick inch, maybe 2 inches.
Additional snow showers and perhaps a squall blow through Friday
evening with cold and gusty northerly winds continuing thereafter
through the night. Additional snowfall will generally be on the
order of a few tenths, though another inch or 2 of accumulation is
possible along the KY-VA border in Pike, Letcher, and Harlan
counties. Look for temperatures falling back into the 10s
overnight, and perhaps single digits in the far north.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026

The forecast period begins with the region situated on the backside
of a departing system as surface high pressure builds into the area,
supported by upper-level ridging over the Central Plains. However,
the forecast area will initially remain under strong northwesterly
flow on the subsident side of a departing trough. This flow may
support isolated flurries before the column dries out, but the
primary concern is the cold temperatures anticipated for Saturday.
Strong CAA behind the system will severely limit diurnal heating;
consequently, highs will only reach the lower 20s across the
Bluegrass, with temperatures struggling to reach the upper 20s
toward the southern border. CAA, radiational cooling, snowpack and
clear skies will work in conjunction Saturday night to insure
temperatures fall into the single digits to mid-teens.

Beginning Sunday, rising geopotential heights aloft will coincide
with a shift to low-level southwesterly flow. This establishes a WAA
regime, allowing temperatures to climb 10 to 15 degrees compared to
Saturday. Highs on Sunday are expected to reach the upper 30s across
the I-64 corridor and the mid-40s over the Cumberland Plateau.
Overnight lows will be notably milder, staying in the 20s. This
warming trend intensifies Monday and Tuesday as high temperatures
top out in the low 50s to mid-60s by Tuesday afternoon. This warm-up
is courtesy of an approaching shortwave trough from the southwest.
Strong southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will sustain WAA
through the early part of the week. By Tuesday afternoon, the system
will be on the doorstep, and PoP will increase through Tuesday
evening and remain elevated through the end of the period.
Temperatures will remain mild through Wednesday before trending
cooler by Thursday.

In summary, the period is highlighted by cold high pressure yielding
to a significant warming trend through early next week. While
temperatures will run well above seasonal averages, such a dramatic
thermal swing is driven by the approach of a robust synoptic system.
This feature will bring rain chances starting Tuesday afternoon or
evening, persisting through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026

VFR was reported across the region at issuance time with mainly
just some passing mid and high level clouds. These VFR ceilings
from mid/high-level clouds are expected to persist until around
09Z before some low level clouds ahead of the next disturbance
begin to approach. These could yield some MVFR ceilings by 12Z for
at least the eastern two thirds of the area. Reductions largely
to MVFR or worse should affect most locations during the 12Z to
18Z timeframe, with a trend toward IFR for most locations between
18Z and 00Z. A period of snow or a mixture of rain and snow is
expected to affect most of the forecast area east of I-75 between
13Z and 20Z as a quick hitting system passes. However, this
steadier precipitation should taper off from northwest to
southeast between 18Z and 00Z. Winds will generally be light and
variable or south to southwest at less than 10KT through 12Z,
before becoming southwest at generally 10KT or less between 12Z
and 18Z and then trend more westerly to northwesterly at around
10KT or less to end the period. Winds should also tend to become a
bit gusty after about 14Z with some gusts into the 15 to 20KT
range.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EST Friday for KYZ044-
050>052-059-060-104-106>110-112-113-119.

Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday
for KYZ088-118-120.


&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...JP