Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

949
FXUS63 KJKL 022203
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
503 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain will remain in the forecast off and on for the next 7 days.

- A warming trend is expected throughout the week, with highs in
  the 70s by Wednesday, and peaking in the upper 70s and low 80s
  for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 250 PM EST MON MAR 2 2026

A surface low pressure center is currently analyzed across
Tennessee, attached to what has been a somewhat stationary front
the last day or so. However, both the low pressure system and the
warm front are moving northward today, with winds becoming more
southerly and warmer air advecting northward through the
Commonwealth. After a bout of some mixed wintry precipitation across
the northern CWA this morning, all sites are now well above
freezing, with rain being the primary precipitation type here-
forward. Hi-res models and latest radar trends continue to suggest
that pops should begin to dissipate across the southeast CWA this
afternoon, with the main segment of rain continuing across the north
and lifting out of the CWA as the low pressure and warm front
continue to track northward overnight. Given the WAA, overnight lows
will actually warm through the night rather than cool.

Despite the brief drying overnight for most locations, this will not
be the end of the rain. Once we head into the daytime hours, showers
are expected to redevelop along the warm front which will be pushing
just north of the state between 12 and 18Z. A small wave will also
move across the state, along the west/east flow aloft, interacting
with the warm front. This will result in swath of likely pops moving
across the northern half of the CWA through the afternoon, also from
east to west. Based on the latest hi-res models, wouldn`t be
surprised if some of these higher pops started to dive a bit farther
south into the CWA by mid-day compared to what is currently
forecast. Something to keep an eye out on. The surge of warm air
will also help to boost temps into the 60s for the afternoon.

After the afternoon push of precip, the boundary will remain
stationary just north of the Ohio River into Tuesday night. There is
good agreement that a west/east band of pops will persist into the
overnight along this boundary, affecting the far northern CWA.
Thankfully this precipitation during the short-term will be more
stratiform - light to moderate at times, but amounts are not
concerning for any flooding threats.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 503 PM EST MON MAR 2 2026

The long wave pattern will feature a transition from zonal flow,
to an amplified/split-flow regime across the CONUS through early
next week. Ridging will persist across the western Atlantic, while
eastern Pacific energy moves onshore, eventually reaching the
Four Corners region by Friday. A cut off low then emerges off of
the Baja California through the weekend, with broader troughing
seen across the northern third of the CONUS. At the surface, a
baroclinic zone will remain in place across the Ohio Valley,
drifting further north of the Ohio River through Thursday, before
pushing southeast as a cold front into this weekend and early next
week. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty regarding smaller
scale features beyond Thursday; however, confidence remains high
that eastern Kentucky will remain in the warm sector throughout
the long term portion of the forecast.

Sensible weather-wise, this will ensure well above normal
temperatures, with readings peaking at 25 to 30 degrees above
normal Friday through Saturday, as short wave ridging tightens up
across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Highs will
build from the low to mid 70s Wednesday and Thursday, to the upper
70s to lower 80s for Friday and Saturday, warm enough to threaten
maximum temperature records for the 6th and 7th of March. Lows
will also modify to the 50s and 60s each night, with maximum low
temperature records also being threatened at times during the
period. Consequently, this warmth will be accompanied by lingering
rain chances across the area into next week, peaking with mid and
upper level support surges. Locations near and north of I-64 will
generally see the highest PoPs through early next week, being
positioned closer to the stalled frontal boundary. Depending on
how things evolve, both a stronger storm and localized hydro
threat could emerge at times for the second half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST MON MAR 2 2026

A low pressure center is currently in place across Tennessee,
attached to a frontal boundary which is starting to work it`s way
back northward as a warm front. This system is continuing to
result in rain across most of the TAF sites as of 18Z. The main
axis of rain is expected to shift north and taper off throughout
the afternoon and evening, with TAF sites drying out accordingly.
CIGS should also improve across the southern TAF sites this
afternoon, though a band of lower CIGS (MVFR to possibly IFR) may
remain across portions of KIOB, KSJS, and KSYM through the
evening, before lifting north. Skies should remain cloudy across
eastern KY despite improving conditions. Models are still pointing
at some decent llvl wind sheer potential overnight and into
Tuesday morning ahead of the next approaching system, likely
affecting most of the TAF locations. Chance pops begin to move
back in from the west at the end of the TAF period, along with
lowering CIGS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...JMW