Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

835
FXUS63 KJKL 070838
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
438 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much cooler air settles in today. Temperatures tonight will dip
  into the mid to upper 30s in valleys, bringing the potential for
  valley fog and localized patches of frost.

- A warming trend begins Friday with afternoon highs returning to
  the mid 70s to low 80s by Sunday.

- Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms return to the
  area for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 429 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026

Any lingering light showers or patchy drizzle are slowly departing
into Tennessee and Virginia early this morning as a cold front
departs over the Appalachian Mountains, leaving behind a cooler
air mass. Temperatures behind the front range from the mid 40s
over the northern foothills to the mid 50s in the deepest
southeastern Coalfield valleys. Cloud cover hangs lowest over the
southeastern counties closest to the departing front while clouds
have thinned and lifted further northwest where dry air is
permeating into the area. Looking upstream, high pressure is in
place to our west and centered over Colorado.

The area of high pressure will shift eastward through the short-term
period, cresting over the Ohio Valley tonight before departing to the
east on Friday. Northwesterly flow ahead of the high will advect a
cool (850 hPa temperatures dipping to 1 to 4C by midday) and much
drier air mass across eastern Kentucky today, bringing a clearing of
the mid and high-level clouds. A notable diurnal shallow cumulus
field is also likely to develop from late morning and persist through
the afternoon, but that too will dissipating as heating ends this
evening, giving way to clear skies and light winds tonight. With
dew points falling deep into the 30s, efficient radiative cooling
will pose a threat for patchy frost in many of the sheltered
hollow locations. Larger river valleys as well as major side
valleys with a significant stream course will be prone to valley
fog formation, limiting the potential for frost there. After a
cold night, southwesterly return flow will develop on the back
side of the surface high, advecting a milder air mass back across
the area (850 hPa temperatures rise to between 8 and 10C).

In sensible terms, look for any leftover light precipitation over far
southeastern Kentucky to depart over the next few hours and yield to
a gradual northwest to southeast thinning of cloud cover. By
afternoon, it will be seasonably cool in the low to mid 60s despite
mostly sunny skies. For tonight, look for temperatures to drop off
quickly after sunset, reaching the mid 30s in the coldest hollows to
lower 40s on thermal belt ridgetops. Fog can be expected in the
typically prone river valley locations while those sheltered valleys
and hollows that remain fog-free could see a bit of patchy frost. Any
fog and frost then melts away quickly after sunrise on Friday as a
light southwesterly breeze develops and temperatures soar into the
lower and middle 70s under mostly sunny skies.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026

The forecast period begins with surface high pressure shifting
eastward as a surface low pressure tracks toward the Great Lakes.
This system is driven by a mid-to-upper-level trough and an
associated jet streak diving southeastward from central Canada. By
the start of the extended period, the region will reside within
the warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front. Overnight
Friday into Saturday, the surface wave will track through the Ohio
Valley and southern Great Lakes, dragging the cold front through
the CWA. Frontal timing remains unfavorable for organized
convection, as the boundary is progged to clear the area by late
Saturday morning/midday. Weak surface high pressure will then
build into the region for the remainder of the day.

Extended guidance maintains good synoptic agreement heading into
the latter half of the weekend. The first of two disturbances is
progged to lift northeastward out of the Deep South, perhaps
clipping the southern half of the CWA. Simultaneously, a secondary
shortwave will rotate around a quasi-stationary circulation
parked over Hudson Bay. This second wave is forecast to drive
another cold front south through the Great Lakes Saturday night
into Sunday. The interaction of these features will lead to
increased PoPs through early Monday morning before the cold
frontal passage ushers both systems out of the region. Surface
high pressure builds in for the early work week, initiating a
warming trend through Wednesday ahead of the next system diving
out of central Canada.

The overall pattern remains active with two frontal passages and
a southern stream low impacting the region. Temperatures will
generally remain near seasonal norms, with Monday progged as the
coolest day of the period following the second frontal passage.
Overnight lows will also follow a seasonal norm, with the
exception of Monday night into Tuesday. During this window,
clearing skies and light winds may promote efficient radiational
cooling, potentially dropping temperatures into the lower 40s or
even upper 30s in typical cold spots.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026

At the 06Z TAF issuance, lingering showers and drizzle are
gradually departing far southeastern Kentucky but an area of MVFR
or worse ceilings are noted behind the departing precipitation and
will continue to impact terminals east of I-75 and south of I-64
through most of the night. Drier air is leading VFR conditions
further north and west. Conditions should improve quickly toward
and after daybreak as drier air moves in and clears the ceilings.
Winds will be light and variable overnight, becoming northwesterly
under 10 kts during the day on Thursday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...VORST/GEERTSON
AVIATION...GEERTSON