Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

068
FXUS63 KJKL 080845
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
445 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Locally dense fog will affect much of the area through the
  morning commute.

- Warm and humid weather will persist through the week.

- There is a good chance of showers and thunderstorms into the
  weekend, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.

- Locally heavy rainfall will be a possibility through the next 7
  days, with a threat of at least isolated flash flooding each
  day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026

08Z sfc analysis still shows a weak and ill defined pressure
pattern over eastern Kentucky. This is allowing the diurnal cycle
to be the main driver of the weather. At night, the convection
dies off along with much of the clouds allowing very limited
radiation cooling and the development of fog - becoming dense in
the valleys. Again due to high humidity there is minimal terrain
differences showing up in the temperatures. Specifically, readings
are generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s with similar
dewpoints, amid light to calm winds. An SPS is again in effect for
areas of dense fog early this morning across the entirety of the
JKL CWA.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in good
agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast
even as they indicate more amplification to end the work week.
Initially, they all depict a positively tilted 5h trough in place
over the Tennessee Valley through western Kentucky. This trough
will fill and dampen through Thursday as it slowly drifts east
with very small height falls for the area. Late in the period the
westerlies at mid-level running through the northern Ohio Valley
start to speed up and settle south toward Kentucky. This
essentially sets the stage for additional short waves - some
probably convectively induced from upstream - to impact the area
into the start of the weekend. Given the good enough agreement
among the models through 00Z Friday, the NBM was used as the
starting point for the grids with some adjustment applied for very
minor terrain details in temperatures tonight. As for PoPs,
consensus guidance for convective timing and coverage were
included from the latest CAM runs. These were again smoothed and
fitted to a reasonable diurnal trend - though with more influence
from mid and upper level dynamics possibly extending the
convection later into the nights than the past couple of them.

Sensible weather features typical summertime conditions stuck on
repeat as conditions will be warm and humid with mainly afternoon
and evening convection. Overlaid on this fairly predictable
pattern will be the potential for outside influence in the form
of waves at mid level working into or near the JKL CWA -
particularly on Thursday and beyond. Slow storm motions and high
PWS (at times over 2 inches) in place means a heightened concern
for localized flooding - especially for places that see training
cells - becoming cumulative by week`s end with isolated flood
concerns peaking. In addition to the excessive rain, we will also
need to be on the look out for organized convection from those
strengthening and nearing westerlies bringing perturbances closer
to the area such that damaging wind gusts could be possible from
any more organized storms Thursday afternoon and evening -
especially over our western zones.

The main adjustments to the NBM starting point were to include
more high resolution CAMs details (smoothed) into the PoPs and
thunder potential grids through Thursday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026

The main change to the grids for the first part of the extended
forecast this morning was to adjust spot specific Max and Min
temps at several points though the area. Faster flow at mid levels
and general troughing over the Ohio Valley will continue into the
weekend and likely support an enhanced threat for heavy rain and
localized flooding - particularly Friday and Saturday.

The previous long term discussion follows:

Thursday, a positively tilted trough featuring an area of low
pressure is modeled over the IN/IL/KY area. A secondary upper level
disturbance is also modeled over the Iowa area. Further west, an
area of high pressure remains of the southern California coast.
Heading into Friday the secondary low over Iowa moves into the Ohio
Valley, while ridging amplifies over the western US. Late Friday
evening a third disturbance over the Rockies will spill into the
Plains and eventually into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley by Saturday,
as high pressure continues to build into a 598-dm heat dome over the
Intermountain West.

For sensible weather in Eastern Kentucky, scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible through Monday, with chances slowly
diminishing behind a cold frontal passage Sunday. Model PWATs
generally remain above 1.75 inches through a good portion of the
period but peak Friday evening into Saturday morning. Those PWATs
range anywhere from 2.0-2.1 inches, and according to the ECMWF
Mean PWAT, the values fall within the 90th percentile of
climatological normals. Given the abnormal PWAT, recent rainfall,
and potential to exceed flood guidance with any good storm with
the potential for producing torrential rain, the WPC has placed
all of Eastern Kentucky in a Marginal Risk on Thursday, and a
Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall both Friday and Saturday.

Tuesday, rising heights will lead to warming temperatures as
multiple models show a 600-dm high over much of the Northern and
Central Plains. One can expect mostly sunny skies and dry
conditions. Temperatures warm into the low to mid 80s through Sunday,
with lows cooling into the upper 60s. With high pressure building
into the area Monday and beyond, temperatures may be a few degrees
warmer into the mid to upper 80s. Otherwise temperatures cool into
the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026

Already the fog and low stratus are starting to affect the
majority of the TAF sites at the 06Z issuance with IFR and MVFR
conditions reported. This is expected to bring generalized IFR or
worse conditions, with the poorest expected to be in valleys and
where significant rain occurred on Tuesday. Look for the fog to
dissipate later this morning a couple of hours after sunrise,
possibly converting to or merging with a low cloud deck before
clearing out. VFR conditions then return until more showers/
thunderstorms develop after daytime heating builds. This once
again results in localized IFR or worse conditions. Winds will be
light and variable away from any storm.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...HAL