Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

703
FXUS63 KJKL 220345 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1145 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms make a return late tonight and on
  Monday, possibly bringing heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts.

- Lower humidity and dry weather arrives by late Tuesday and lasts
  through Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1145 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026

Storms to the northwest continue to weaken in line with the
lessening instability ion this part of the state at this hour.
This is as depicted by the evening runs of the CAMs, but still
some concern with the meso-boundary left behind for our area
through the night and potential reactivation and training along
it. The bulk of the rest of the JKL CWA away from this feature
should see less activity and severe/flooding concerns but will be
monitored through the night, as well. Otherwise, aside from
tweaking PoPs, QPF, and thunder potential through the night no
significant changes were made to the forecast. The latest obs and
trends were incorporated into the T/Td/Sky grids. These
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along
with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 730 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows low pressure approaching western Kentucky
this evening with a warm front now lifting toward the Ohio River
north of the JKL CWA. A large cluster of thunderstorms is blowing
up well to the northwest of the area with thick clouds heading
east into the northern parts of the the area. These storms will
potentially be a concern or eastern Kentucky later tonight, but
the CAMs do weaken them significantly by the time they would get
here towards midnight. Currently, temperatures are rather warm -
running in the low to mid 80s. Meanwhile, amid light southerly
winds, dewpoints are generally in the increasingly sticky mid to
upper 60s for most places. Have updated the forecast mainly to
add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids as well as
tweaking the PoPs through the night per the latest CAMs guidance.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 437 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026

Zonal flow aloft is present from the mid Mississippi Valley
eastward across the Appalachians late today, but with a wave
(associated with convection) present over the mid Mississippi
Valley. At the surface, a weak, amorphous pattern is over our
area with an old stalled frontal boundary decaying, and a surface
low is over the mid Mississippi Valley in association with the
wave.

The upper level wave and the surface low will move east and bring
a warm/moist advection regime eastward into our area tonight into
Monday. As this happens, the convection to our west is expected to
head east as an MCS, probably arriving here in a weakening stage
overnight. Instability and shear look modest, but if an MCS is
well organized as it approaches, it could still be enough to bring
some strong winds. Convection may last into Monday morning, and
clouds and possible precip will likely limit destabilization on
Monday. However, models do suggest additional precip ahead of the
surface system`s cold front on Monday, especially in southeast KY.
Depending on instability, some strong storms can`t be ruled out.
PW should reach near 2 inches, which would also pose a threat of
heavy rainfall. All of this winds down behind the cold front on
Monday night as modestly cooler and drier air arrives.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 358 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026

Monday evening a cold front should be slowly progressing southeast
of the forecast area. As a result lingering showers and perhaps some
isolated thunderstorms may exist Tuesday morning across the
southeastern portions of the forecast areas. Aside from this area of
lingering showers and thunderstorms the rest of the area can expect
a mix of sun and clouds with temperatures warming into the upper 70s
to low 80s by the afternoon.

High pressure builds into the area through Tuesday afternoon
allowing for clouds to slowly dissipate. Conditions will be primed
across Eastern Kentucky for fog development Tuesday evening, as a
weak pressure gradient, clearing skies, calm winds and expected dew
point depressions within 3 degrees, will all culminate into
temperatures cooling into the low to mid 50s in the valleys, and
upper 60s to low 60s along ridge tops. Patchy fog with areas of
river valley fog are expected before mixing out Wednesday morning.

Analyzing models 500-mb heights on Wednesday morning, An area of low
pressure enters the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes region with
a cold front trailing southwest into the Central Plains.
Additionally, a secondary shortwave over the Oklahoma area works
around a broad area of high pressure over Central Mexico, south of
the Four Corners region. Eastern Kentucky will looks to remain dry
Wednesday, with temperatures warming into the low to mid 80s under
mostly sunny skies. Clouds are expected to increase heading into
Thursday, as the cold front from the Great Lakes low progresses into
the Ohio Valley, and is modeled just north of Kentucky Thursday
morning. Additionally, a stationary boundary is modeled across the
Southeast (just south of Tennessee). This will create isolated shower
and thunderstorm chances Thursday.

Due to the fact there isn`t much forcing across the Southeast US,
forward progression of the Ohio valley cold front slows. By Friday
morning the cold front is modeled across the forecast area leading to
scattered shower and storm chances. Heading into the weekend, models
and ensembles depict ridging across the Central Plains on Saturday,
due to a strong upper level low entering the Pacific Northwest. A
shortwave trapped under the ridge is expected to propagate east into
the Ohio Valley Saturday and Sunday. THis keeps scattered shower and
storm chances in the forecast through Sunday.

Thursday through Sunday, temperatures are expected to warm into the
mid to upper 80s during the day, and mid to upper 60s at night. A
warming trend looks likely, with the CPC highlighting Kentucky in
their 6-10 day outlook with a 40-50% probability of above normal
temperatures through the 30th of June.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026

VFR conditions will persist until late tonight. Showers and
thunderstorms are then apt to arrive from the west/northwest
overnight and probably stick around at least at the scattered
level through the day Monday. There is still significant
uncertainty concerning the evolution of the convection upstream,
and thus exactly how it will eventually impact the JKL aviation
forecast area. As a result, a generalized forecast for IFR
conditions, at times during the precip, was included in the TAFs.
Winds will be southwest at 5 to 10 kts through the day, Monday -
with higher gusts near any thunderstorms.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...HAL/GREIF