Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

503
FXUS63 KJKL 180345 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1145 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and humid weather will persist through the weekend, with
  all of the area expecting showers and thunderstorms at some
  point.

- Some thunderstorms could bring locally heavy rainfall and strong
  winds gusts on Saturday and Saturday night.

- The air behind a weak cold front may bring some minor relief
  from the muggy conditions on Monday. A more significant cold
  front should bring more showers and thunderstorms at midweek,
  followed by a more noticeable drop in humidity.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1145 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
Did also fine tune the PoPs through the night per the current
radar and CAMs guidance. These minor adjustments have been sent
to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO,
SAFs, and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 735 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows a weak pressure pattern in place over
Kentucky with little to prevent the development of showers and
thunderstorms this past afternoon and into the evening. These
continue to pop up mainly along outflow boundaries from earlier
storms. At this point, the convection is mostly on the western
fringe of the CWA - though the CAMs suggest more activity is
possible this evening in the southeast parts of the JKL CWA. Any
storm will be slow moving and bring torrential rains with possible
high water incidents. Expect some widely scattered convection
through the night with partly cloudy skies and areas of fog
developing - becoming locally dense in the valleys and places that
saw rain. Currently, temperatures are running in the lower 80s
where it hasn`t rained to the mid 70s in the wetter areas.
Meanwhile, amid light and variable winds, dewpoints remain quite
elevated in the mid 70s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add
in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids along with an
idea of the scattered activity from the CAMs overnight. These
minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along
with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 512 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026

Upper level ridging which was present over the area recently
continues to break down and retreat over the Atlantic off the
southeast coast. Deep moisture is returning around its western
periphery and is making it into the JKL forecast area from the
west. With heating and destabilization today, thunderstorms
developed in the deep moisture. Although surface dew points were
also high further east, it`s been tougher to get thunderstorm
development there where the air aloft is still a bit drier. A
lack of wind in the column is resulting in slow and erratic
movement of thunderstorms, with locally heavy rainfall as they
rain out largely where they develop. At this point, the
development has become largely outflow driven. Will look for an
overall decrease in activity as we progress into the night and
instability wanes.

Assuming enough heating occurs, will look for more thunderstorm
development on Saturday, with all places at about equal
probability as the deep moisture envelopes the area. There will be
a little bit more flow aloft out of the west northwest on Saturday
to give some storm movement. However, PWs near 2 inches and a
potential for training of cells could again give locally heavy
rainfall. A wave moving through a northeast CONUS trough will
extend the trough southwestward over the Ohio Valley and support a
cold front to move into or through the JKL forecast area late
Saturday night. The front will support a potential for precip
possibly off peak from the diurnal cycle, depending on frontal
timing (which is still a bit uncertain in models).

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 722 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026

Sunday morning, some showers and storms will occur, most likely
along and south of the I-64 corridor. This is subject to models
correctly resolving a cold front over northern portions of the CWA.
This cold front is from an upper level low located just north of
Maine. To the west, high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest and
Ohio Valley, while a secondary upper level low, originating out of
ALberta, is expected to progress across Southern Canada.

For sensible weather, expect showers and storms across the area
Sunday, with chances decreasing heading into the late afternoon and
evening. Clearing skies and light winds will allow for patchy fog to
develop and temperatures to drop into the mid 60s.

As high pressure briefly builds in Monday that secondary upper level
low will dig into the Upper Midwest, Upper Great Lakes, and Ohio
Valley. A stray shower or storm may be possible along the TN/KY
line, otherwise mostly sunny skies and dry conditions are expected
with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Monday evening, temperatures are
expected to cool into the upper 60s to near 70.

Tuesday, the upper level low will continue across the Great Lakes
as the systems cold front will extend southwest through the Ohio
Valley into the Central Plains. Afternoon temperatures are expected
to warm into the upper 80s to low 90s. Ahead of the cold front model
PWAT ranging from 1.8 to 2.0 inches along with dew points in the low
70s and temperatures in the upper 80s will all combine for hot and
muggy conditions. A 40 kt LLJ combined with 1500-2500 MUCAPE, 0-3km
SRH ranging between 150-250 m2/s2, and DCAPE near 1000 J/kg suggests
severe weather is possible Tuesday afternoon. As such the SPC has
put the northern part of the CWA (Mountain Parkway and north) in a
Day 5 Slight Risk for severe weather, highlighting at least isolated
to widely scattered damaging wind potential. Temperatures are
expected to cool into the upper 60s to low 70s.

Wednesday the cold front should be southwest of the forecast area,
however, isolated to scattered storms are possible across the Big
Sandy and including the southern parts of the Licking and Cumberland
River Basins. Otherwise, decreasing clouds through the day, with
temperatures cooler, in the low to mid 80s, under  northwest winds.
Cooler air continues to work in, with lows in the lower 60s
Wednesday night.

While Thursday and Friday will remain dry, the next shortwave looks
to come out of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest potentially in
time for next weekend. Temperatures Thursday will be cool in the
upper 70s to lower 80s, with temperatures cooling into the low 60s
at night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026

Scattered thunderstorms look to avoid any TAF terminal for the
rest of the evening but cannot be ruled out entirely. Then,
assuming large breaks in the clouds tonight, fog development can
be expected, especially where rain occurred. The fog will bring
localized IFR or worse conditions. Look for the fog to dissipate
shortly after sunrise Saturday morning, but additional
thunderstorm development is expected by the middle of that
afternoon. Away from any storm, winds will be light and variable.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...HAL/GREIF