Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

132
FXUS63 KJKL 040605 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
205 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect one more day with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s,
  following mild overnight temperatures bottoming in the 50s and
  60s.

- Look for a small chance for showers and storms until a stronger
  cold front moves through the region later this evening and
  overnight into Sunday morning.

- Cooler temperatures arrive on Sunday and settle in through the
  start of the new week.

- Any showers and storms will provide some needed rainfall for
  eastern Kentucky.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 125 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the zones.

UPDATE Issued at 1145 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2026

Clear to partly cloudy skies are noted across eastern Kentucky
late this evening and will persist through the overnight. Look
for temperatures to continue settling back into the mid 50s cooler
sheltered valleys to the mid 60s thermal belt ridges by daybreak.

UPDATE Issued at 818 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2026

Leftover isolated showers are exiting/dissipating as diurnal
heating has ceased. Forecast for quiet and mild conditions
overnight remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 337 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2026

Looking at the last 24 hours of synoptic movement, yesterdays 996 mb
surface low has ejected northeast from the Mid-Mississippi Valley
into southern Ontario. Consequently, the associated warm front has
moved into New England, while a cold front now drapes from the Great
Lakes southwest into central Kansas, where a 1005 mb surface low is
tracking along the boundary. While these features remain north and
west of the CWA, eastern Kentucky remains under the influence of
surface high pressure while situated within the warm sector ahead of
the approaching cold front. This regime has allowed temperatures to
climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Coincident with the warming,
south to southwest winds have increased, with widespread gusts of 15
to 20 mph across the area.

Through the remainder of the afternoon and overnight, the warm
sector air mass will continue to govern local conditions.
Temperatures are forecast to peak in the low to mid 80s. Strong
south to southwest winds will persist, bolstered by a LLJ. Sustained
winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts upwards of 25 mph are expected
through the early overnight hours. While isolated to scattered
showers or storms are possible this afternoon, they will lack
significant organization and should dissipate with waning diurnal
instability after sunset. The area is progged to remain mostly dry
overnight; however, with potential clearing, patchy river valley fog
may develop, especially in locations that received afternoon
rainfall.

The cold front will approach the area from the overnight hours into
Saturday morning. PoPs will increase from west to east Saturday
morning, with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected
throughout the day. Some storms may become strong Saturday
afternoon, particularly in areas along and northwest of a line from
Johnson County to Pulaski County. A primary limiting factor for
severe development is the forecast convection progged to develop
ahead of the main line. This activity would work-over the
atmosphere, leaving little time for air mass recovery ahead of the
front. Furthermore, the primary severe indices are temporally
offset; instability is better aligned with the early activity when
shear is relatively low, whereas shear becomes more ideal as
instability becomes marginal. Nonetheless, the potential for strong
to severe storms along the front has led the SPC to place portions
of the area in a Day 2 Marginal Risk.

The short-term period is highlighted by the transition from the
influence of surface high pressure and the warm sector to the
arrival of the cold front on Saturday. Temperatures will remain well
above average with gusty south to southwesterly winds. While pulse-
type storms are possible today, more widespread and organized
activity is expected Saturday with the frontal passage.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 337 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2026

The extended period begins with the CWA in the midst of a cold
frontal passage. Lingering showers and storms are progged at the
start of the period, but rain will taper off from northwest to
southeast through the day Sunday. Behind the front, surface high
pressure will build into the region and remain the dominant feature
through the remainder of the period. Temperatures will return to
seasonal normals for the early part of next week. Highs are progged
to range from the mid 50s to mid 60s, but by Wednesday, temperatures
will begin to climb back into the 70s. Post-frontal CAA will keep
overnight lows quite cool to start the period. Lows from Sunday
night through Tuesday night are forecast in the 30s. Should Tuesday
night remain clear, eastern valleys could fall into the mid to upper
20s, making frost formation possible. Overnight lows will begin to
rebound Wednesday night.

In summary, the extended period begins with FROPA before
transitioning to surface high pressure, keeping the area dry.
Following Sunday night, a temperature rollercoaster is expected
before a warming trend establishes itself by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2026

VFR conditions are present across the area at the 06Z issuance.
Variable mid and high level clouds can be expected for the rest of
the night with light winds. Winds will pick up out of the
southwest this morning at 8 to 14 knots with gusts up to 20 or 25
knots through the remainder of the day as a cold front approaches.
This boundary will push a band of showers and thunderstorms
across the aviation forecast area from west to east late in the
afternoon through the evening. Expect conditions to fall into the
MVFR and IFR conditions with the convection. Lower CIGs follow in
the IFR range late tonight - post frontal.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF