Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

503
FXUS63 KJKL 250004 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
704 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Milder temperatures will make a comeback for the next week.

- The greatest probability of precipitation (mainly rain) over the
  next week is Wednesday night or Thursday for most locations.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 650 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026

Some mid and high level clouds were crossing the region at this
point and temperatures had a general gradient from north and east
to the southwest. Readings were in the 30s in the more north and
east, with some 20s above 2500 feet elevation. Elsewhere
temperatures were in the low 40s. The current forecast was in
good alignment with recent observation, satellite, and radar
trend. Thus only some minor adjustments to hourly grids over the 3
hours or so were made based on observation trends

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 417 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026

Low pressure tracking eastward north of the Great Lakes will send
a cold front southeast through the Midwest tonight, and reaching
KY on Wednesday. Warm/moist advection ahead of the front will keep
clouds in our skies tonight and also result in milder
temperatures. The column will try to saturate from the top down for
a brief time in the regime, but by the time lower levels moisten
it will probably be drying above. This will perhaps give just a
narrow time window for some light precip overnight into Wednesday
morning (mainly as rain if it occurs).

The front should slow down as it slips through KY on Wednesday
and Wednesday night. Meanwhile, a small shortwave trough will
approach from the WNW late Wednesday and Wednesday night as an
upper jet streak passes through. With this there a potential for
a weak surface wave to pass just to our south along the front and
generate precip over our area. Models have not been on agreement
on how far north the precip occurs. The highest POP is in our
southern counties late Wednesday night (and into the long term
period). It looks warm enough for rain most places. However,
should precip make it all the way to the northern edge of the
forecast area, there could be some snow mixed in there late
Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 138 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026

The forecast period begins with a negatively tilted longwave trough
oriented across much of the eastern CONUS. This feature will sustain
the weather that began in the short-term window; however, the
forecast area is now progged to be under the right entrance region
of a departing jet streak. This positioning will promote the
development of a surface low along the trailing cold front of the
system, which is currently oriented under the left exit region of
the jet. Through the day Thursday, the cold front and associated
surface feature will track through the area, bringing widespread
rain showers. As the supporting jet dynamics shift to the east,
showers will decrease from northwest to southeast before ending by
early Friday morning. Since the flow remains out of the west-
southwest, temperatures will stay above freezing throughout the
systems passage; however, a few flurries cannot be ruled out across
the Bluegrass early Thursday morning. Temperatures are expected to
start cool on Thursday with highs in the upper 40s to upper 50s, but
even warmer temperatures are forecast for Friday behind the
departing system, with highs reaching the mid 50s to lower 60s.

High pressure will build into the region behind the departing
system, allowing for dry weather and warming temperatures through
the weekend. However, the warming will plateau on Saturday due to an
approaching shortwave trough progged to move through the Ohio
Valley. The atmospheric column appears fairly dry, leading to less
than 15% PoP on Sunday, but cloud cover associated with the system
will limit diurnal warming, capping highs in the upper 40s across
the Bluegrass and the lower 60s toward the TN/VA border.

As another longwave trough swings across the northern CONUS and
southern Canada, the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys will be
positioned in the right entrance region of the jet core. Under this
regime, surface cyclogenesis is forecast to occur late Sunday, with
increasing PoP beginning Sunday night and persisting through the
remainder of the forecast period. The area will be on the cusp of
the freezing line; consequently, areas along and north of the
Mountain Parkway will likely see a wintry mix Sunday night into
Monday before thermal profiles warm, allowing for a transition to
all rain as the dominant precipitation type.

The period will start with a passing wave bringing precipitation,
followed by surface high pressure and warming temperatures into the
weekend. A secondary wave is forecast for early next week, bringing
an initial wintry mix followed by a transition to rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026

VFR was reported at issuance time and VFR is expected to prevail
until about 18Z when some MVFR may develop in the more southern
locations, for from near a KJKL to KSJS line south. An overall
lowering of clouds is expected with time, during the 00Z to 15Z
timeframe. This will occur as an area of low pressure tracks from
the northern Great Lakes across sections of Ontario and Quebec
and trailing cold approaches and then sags into the OH Valley
region. The pressure gradient between the approaching front and
high pressure extending across FL and into portions of the
Atlantic will increase tonight and winds aloft will also increase
as the disturbance nears. This leads to some uncertainty in
sustained winds at the surface in any given location, but
otherwise, a LLWS threat will develop where there is less mixiness
and winds are light and not gusty/more in the way of turbulence.
At this point, the forecast opted for more in the way of turbulence
for KIOB and toward LLWS threat for the remainder of the TAF
sites with lower than average confidence. Some light rain is also
possible as the front approaches, generally near or east of a line
from KSYM to KJKL to non TAF site K1A6. Within or after any of
this light rain, MVFR ceilings still cannot be ruled out.

Otherwise, as the front sags into the area, low and mid level
moisture is expected to increase, especially in the more southern
locations toward the end of the period with the possibility of
light rain. However, better rain chances and the probability of
sub VFR ceilings areawide and IFR lower in the south increases
Wednesday night after the period ends.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...HAL/JP