Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

860
FXUS63 KJKL 292122
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
422 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a potential for a more widespread dry, fluffy snow
  event Friday/Saturday for parts of eastern Kentucky depending on
  the evolution of a possible large system developing/moving up
  the Eastern Seaboard.

- Cold weather lasts through the upcoming weekend, with at least a
  brief warming trend following early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 422 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026

An updated short term discussion will be sent shortly.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 422 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026

A snow event is expected to be ongoing at the start of the period
for the southeast portion of the forecast area, but getting ready to
wind down. A potent upper level low should pass just to our
southwest and south on Saturday, with its associated surface
development off the southeast coast. Models are still not in
agreement concerning how quickly the deep moisture/precip associated
with it pulls out, with the GFS slowest, NAM fastest, and the
ECMWF in between. Have compromised and allowed for the advisory to
run through Saturday morning, but that may end up being adjusted
later.

Flurries or snow showers are then expected to persist or redevelop
behind the departing system. An area of moisture currently over
southeast Canada (oddly enough, associated with warm air advection
from the north) is expected to drop south to the Ohio Valley by
Saturday night as it is fading and becoming more shallow. With the
aforementioned surface low exploding off the East Coast, our low
level flow will become more upslope, and with very shallow
instability present in the prime DGZ as the moisture arrives, a few
flakes should fly. Think that it will be a relatively high
probability of very minimal or unmeasurable precip.

The moisture fades later Saturday night or Sunday and surface
ridging should build in from the west bringing decreasing clouds and
slackening winds. This could set up for very cold temperatures
Sunday night, especially for any valleys which can decouple.
However, the ridge may already slip to our east by Monday morning,
which would result in warm air advection returning, potentially with
a significant pressure gradient ahead of the next cold front. This
would limit low temps outside of the normally coldest eastern
valleys. It also sets us up for temperatures to finally warm to the
30s on Monday. The cold front will be weakening, and even if it
technically passes, a warming trend is likely to continue with all
of the area expecting above freezing high temperatures by Tuesday.

At this point, models begin showing much more disagreement pointing
to considerably uncertainty with how things evolve mid-late week.
This pertains particularly to the timing and latitude of an upper
trough transiting the eastern CONUS. That being the case, the model
blended forecast which was used is likely to change.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026

VFR conditions prevailed at issuance time and should continue
through tonight in spite of thickening and lowering cloud cover. A
frontogenetically-forced band of light snow is expected to
develop south of I-64 around daybreak on Friday and impact
terminals across all of southeastern Kentucky during the daylight
hours. Winds will generally be light and variable today, becoming
northeast to north at 5kt or less for tonight and Friday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to noon EST Saturday for KYZ044-
050>052-068-069-079-080-083>085.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for KYZ058-
107-111.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Friday to 3 AM EST Saturday
for KYZ068-069-079-080-083-084-109-112-114-119.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Friday to noon EST Saturday
for KYZ085>088-110-113-115>118-120.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GEERTSON