Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

185
FXUS63 KJKL 230056 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
856 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Localized heavy rainfall may occur with showers & thunderstorms
  which last into tonight.

- Most places can expect rain each day through most of the next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026

Adjustments were made to pops to account for recent radar trends
while hourly temperatures were freshened up based on recent
observations. Locally heavy rainfall remains a threat tonight
where rounds of rain move repeatedly over the same locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 452 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026

A broad upper trough is over the western and central CONUS late
today, while an embedded northeastward moving shortwave trough is
over the Ozarks. The shortwave is supporting a surface low in the
vicinity of western KY/West TN, traveling northeast along a warm
front over the Ohio Valley. Extensive showers and a few
thunderstorms have been occurring over our area ahead of the
system today. The clouds and precip have held temperatures back
from where they otherwise could have been, which has limited our
instability, in turn keeping convection more tame than it could
have been up to this point. There is still some decent directional
and speed shear in the lowest levels, and the severe wx threat
won`t be completely ruled out. However, with peak heating about to
pass, the threat of severe wx would seem to be waning. Convection
has been persistent in some places and the CAPE profile is
generally thin, allowing for some localized rainfall amounts
probably exceeding an inch. With a Flood Watch already in place in
our far northern counties, will let it ride just in case training
cells were to occur there this evening.

The surface low and shortwave trough will pass to our north
tonight and our limited instability will further wane. This will
allow for an overall reduction in precip which lasts into Saturday
morning. The lack of activity going into the day should allow for
a bit more heating (compared to Friday). The system`s very weak
cold front will be approaching from the northwest and is expected
to help generate more showers/thunderstorms in an uncapped
atmosphere ahead of it, especially in the afternoon. With
weakening instability on Saturday night, activity should again
decline.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 452 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026

The main belt of stronger flow aloft will retreat to the north
early in the week and the aforementioned front from the short
term section will lose momentum. It is expected to stall in our
area and allow for a daily threat of showers/thunderstorms. An
upper trough should deepen over the northeast CONUS at the end of
the week, which could allow for a southward push of drier air
finally making it here. The POP is lower on Friday to allow for
this possibility.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026

At issuance time, pending whether or not convection was affecting
or had recently affected a locations led to ranging conditions.
Most places were IFR to MVFR with some instance of LIFR, while
where convection was not present VFR was observed. Reductions to
MVFR or IFR if not lower in some cases will be commonplace as
convection moves across the TAF sites during the first 3 to 5
hours of the period. Thereafter, VFR may be common for the second
6 hours of the period with a relative lull in chances for
convection. Sub VFR may linger a bit longer in the north near KIOB
and KSYM. Convection should return at times during the last 12
hours of the period, with coverage likely to be peak during the
16Z to 00Z timeframe. Within convection, reductions to MVFR or IFR
is anticipated. Winds will generally be light through the period,
with brief higher gusts in thunderstorms.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT Saturday for KYZ044-050>052-104.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JP