Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

871
FXUS63 KJKL 270109
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
809 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A modest cool down for Sunday and Monday will interrupt what
  will otherwise be a week of above normal temperatures.

- There is a potential for precipitation at times from Sunday
  night on. It will probably be cold enough for whatever falls to
  be a wintery mix in most places Sunday night and Monday, but
  amounts look to be light.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 809 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026

The low stratus deck has been slow to dissipate for locations
south of I-64 and east of I-75 this evening as weak 925 hPa CAA
continues on northwest flow. The deck should gradually erode
northwest-southeast through 06Z as lingering low-level moisture
dwindles. Fog, potentially dense, remains the primary concern
going through the overnight as near surface moisture levels remain
high after a day of suppressed temperatures. It won`t take long
for radiation fog to form, especially in valleys, once clearing
occurs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 425 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026

The low pressure wave which brought precip as it move along a
frontal boundary to our south on Thursday has departed to the east
along with its upper level support. With this, the deep moisture
and precip has also departed, with just low level moisture/clouds
lingering. This held temperatures down and RH up during the day on
Thursday.

Surface ridging will build in from the northwest overnight and
bring clearing (it`s just starting to arrive at the western edge
of the area). Light winds under the ridge, high RH to start the
night, and clearing skies will be conducive for fog development,
and it may become pervasive. Following shifts will need to monitor
for the need of a SPS or even NPW.

Whatever fog there is will dissipate on Friday morning as sun
works on it and warming occurs. Once the fog is gone dry air
throughout the column aloft will result in clear skies lasting
into or through Friday night. The sun will result in a milder day.
Valley fog is a possibility again on Friday night, but with a
warmer and drier start to the night, it should not be as
expansive. The onset of weak warm air advection will result in a
little bit wider temperature range between ridges and valleys on
Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 301 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026

Surface high pressure remains across the region to begin the
forecast period, maintaining dry weather and above-average
temperatures. Within a longwave trough situated over the eastern
CONUS and eastern Canada, a jet streak tracking into New England
will support the progression of a surface cyclone from central
Canada toward the Canadian Maritimes. As this occurs, an associated
cold front will sweep across the northern CONUS. In addition to
surface frontal forcing, upper-level divergence will provide
additional synoptic lift to support PoP development across the Ohio
Valley. Recent model suites have slightly diminished PoP chances to
15 to 20 percent for areas north and northwest of a line from Estill
to Wolfe to Elliott counties. Forecast soundings at KIOB and KSYM
indicate potential for brief mixed precipitation as low-level cold
air advection begins overnight; however, with the column remaining
predominantly above freezing, rain will be the primary precipitation
type.

Behind the departing front on Sunday, surface high pressure will
drift southeastward into the CWA, leading to a brief period of dry
weather and cooler temperatures. This lull will be short-lived as
upper-level dynamics support cyclogenesis in the Central Plains.
This system is progged to track rapidly toward the Commonwealth,
with PoP chances increasing Sunday evening and continuing through
the remainder of the period. Consistent with previous forecast
packages, model guidance continues to exhibit a north-south wobble.
These latitudinal shifts remain critical in determining the position
of the rain-snow line, as the forecast area remains positioned near
a critical thermal threshold. Consequently, a wintry mix appears
likely with the arrival of this system Sunday night. Deterministic
forecast soundings for areas north of the Mountain Parkway show a
pronounced warm nose, which should result in melting and predominant
rainfall at the onset. As surface temperatures fall to freezing or
below during the early overnight hours, a transition to a rain-snow
mix is anticipated. While precipitation type forecasting remains
complex, confidence is increasing regarding a higher probability of
freezing rain than in previous cycles. By Monday morning,
temperatures are forecast to rise above freezing, transitioning all
wintry precipitation back to rain. Rain is expected to continue
through the end of the period. While model confidence typically
degrades after Tuesday, recent runs have come into better agreement
regarding a stalled boundary. This feature will likely become the
focus for repeated rounds of precipitation, leading to potential
hydrologic issues by the end of the forecast period.

The period is highlighted by initial surface high pressure bringing
dry and mild conditions through Saturday. A transition to a more
active pattern occurs Saturday night as a series of disturbances
impact the region. A wintry mix is possible Sunday night into Monday
before transitioning back to rain. While temperatures begin above
average, fluctuations in synoptic and mesoscale flow will lead to
high variability through the early part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 656 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026

At TAF issuance, conditions varied from high IFR/low MVFR under a
lingering stratus deck to VFR where skies had cleared. Overall
improvement will occur through the remainder of the evening, with
ceilings generally rising and also breaking up from northwest to
southeast as time goes by. VFR is forecast area wide by about 04Z.

With very little sun or warming during the day, tonight will
already start with high relative humidity at the surface. As skies
clear, the good radiating conditions and light winds will lead to
fog development. The fog could be pervasive, and all TAF sites
are forecast to fall to IFR or worse at least at times overnight
into Friday morning. This will be followed by improvement back to
VFR with clear skies area wide during the day on Friday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON/HAL