Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

541
FXUS63 KJKL 021207
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
807 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and mainly dry weather will prevail through the weekend.

- Frost is expected in some locations by dawn this morning,
  especially near/north of the Mountain Parkway.

- Frost and freezing temperatures are likely late tonight and
  early Sunday in many valleys.

- Showers and/or thunderstorms are possible at times from Sunday
  night to Friday, with the greatest probability from Tuesday
  night into Wednesday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 807 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026

Chilly conditions are in place as the sun rises across eastern
Kentucky. Temperatures have bottomed out in the lower to middle
30s across the Bluegrass and Licking River basin and generally mid
30s to near 40F elsewhere. These temperatures should warm quickly
into the 40s over the next hour or two. Additionally, high clouds
should gradually pull away to the east through early afternoon
and be replaced by an expanding cumulus field. The hourly forecast
has been updated with the latest observations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday evening)
Issued at 603 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026

The short term period will be characterized by upper level
troughing over the eastern CONUS and consequently below average
temperatures. The latest surface observations show that yesterdays
cold front has cleared Kentucky and is currently situated well to
our east, although satellite shows a broad area of high clouds
associated with this system over much of the forecast area.
Despite this, areas along and north of the Mountain Parkway
remained clear through much of the night, which has allowed
temperatures to fall into the mid 30s in many locations.
Therefore, areas of frost will be possible by dawn in this area.
Accordingly, a frost advisory remains in effect through 9 AM this
morning, with frost concerns diminishing as temperatures rise
after sunrise.

Today, CAA associated with persistent northwesterly flow should
keep highs well below average, with temperatures peaking in the
upper 50s and low 60s. Notably, vorticity advection associated
with the passage of the upper level trough axis will provide
sufficient lift such that brief showers cannot be ruled out;
however, given northerly to northwesterly postfrontal flow,
dewpoints will be low (falling into the upper 20s for much of the
forecast area), limiting precipitation chances. The best chance
for rain will be in the southwestern portion of our forecast area
where dewpoints will be slightly higher, though PoPs were kept low
(15-25%) due to meager moisture. Following the passage of the
trough axis this evening, gradual clearing is expected as surface
high pressure builds.

Tonight, light winds and clear skies will set us up for a solid
ridge/valley split. Temperatures in valleys and sheltered areas
are expected to fall into the low 30s and upper 20s, warranting a
freeze watch for the majority of the forecast area. The exception
will be our southwestern counties. Here, temperatures should
remain above freezing. However, minTs for these counties remain
dependent on the evolution of precipitation/cloud cover associated
with the passage of the trough axis; given a very dry source
region (dewpoints in the 20s), northwesterly winds could maintain
low dewpoints in this area if moistening via precipitation does
not occur. In this case, overnight temperatures would be able to
fall sufficiently for frost to develop. A frost advisory may be
needed for the remainder of our area if this forecast trend holds.
Regardless, agricultural interests are highly encouraged to take
protective action ahead of these cold temperatures tonight into
Sunday morning.

Sunday will be a relatively inconsequential weather day across
eastern Kentucky as high pressure dominates. This pattern will
maintain clear skies throughout the day, allowing temperatures to
rise into the mid 60s across most of the forecast area. However,
as a shortwave approaches the region, the surface high will
translate eastward. Consequently, winds will become more
southwesterly over the course of the day, initiating modest
moisture return. This will set the stage for a wetter pattern
during the long term period.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 526 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026

The long-term model suite analysis opens Sunday evening with broad
troughing over the Northeastern CONUS and Eastern Canada. Multiple
perturbations are passing through this feature including a shortwave
trough extending from Northern Ontario to the Lower Ohio Valley and
another one over the Central and Northern Plains. Further west, an
upper level ridge axis extends from the Baja California northward
into the Great Basin while an ~580 dam upper level high is
situated off the British Columbia coast. Meanwhile, an ~558 dam
closed low is situated off the California coast. At the surface, a
decaying cold front extends from Sault Ste. Marie, MI southwest
to over the Ozarks with a subtle weak warm front extending
southeastward from Michigan toward the Ohio River. Further
upstream, a stronger around 990 mb surface low is situated east of
Lake Winnipeg with a second cold front extending westward to
along the British Columbian Rockies.

Low-level WAA will be underway Sunday evening and night as the
initial shortwave and associated dampening warm front lifts
northeast through the area. The WAA may lead to a few light
showers late Sunday night, mainly in the north before somewhat
better chances (30 to 40 percent PoPs) arrive on Monday as diurnal
heating leads to building instability as the first cold front
stalls north of the Ohio River. Meanwhile, additional energy
riding from the Aleutians over the Northern Pacific High will dive
into the troughing over eastern Canada and lead to an amplifying
positively-tilted trough that will begin digging into the
Northern Plains on Monday, eventually capture the upper low off
California, and then carve a full-latitude trough all the way to
the Lower Mississippi River by Wednesday night, thereafter
becoming negatively-tilted late in the week over the eastern
portions of the continent. As this trough unfolds, it will propel
the strong but slow-moving cold front, initially over the southern
Canadian Prairies, southeastward toward the Ohio Valley and
eventually crossing eastern Kentucky Wednesday afternoon and
night. Multiple pockets of upper level vorticity energy passing aloft
will support several waves of low pressure and rounds of rainfall
riding along the frontal boundary from late Tuesday through
Thursday. At this point, instability with this second cold front
appears to be meager, limited by cloud cover and precipitation.
Behind the front, below normal temperatures return for Thursday
and Friday.

In sensible weather terms, look for increasing clouds Sunday night
and a bit of a breeze to develop overnight after initially
slackening. It will be cool with lows near 40F in the cooler eastern
valleys to the upper 40s west of I-75, over the Bluegrass, and
atop thermal belt ridges. A few showers are possible late, mainly
in the north. On Monday, the threat for showers and even a few
thunderstorms will continue. It will be breezy and warmer with
high temperatures forecast to reach the middle 70s in most areas.
Continued mild and fair conditions (aside from a lingering small
shower chance near and north of I-64) follow for Monday night and
Tuesday with lows in the 50s and highs from 75 to 80F. Occasional
rain with embedded thunderstorms is then expected from Tuesday
night through early Thursday. Two-day rainfall amounts ending on
Thursday have a 70 to 80 percent probability of exceeding 1 inch
and a 10 to 40 percent probability of exceeding 2 inches, highest
probabilities west of I-75 and lowest over the Big Sandy basin.
Following the cold front, high temperatures are only forecast to
reach the 60s on Thursday and Friday while overnight lows dip into
the 35 to 45F range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 757 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026

VFR conditions without significant wind are forecast through the
period. High clouds at TAF issuance time will retreat southeast
and exit by 17Z. An extensive cu field will then develop between
7-9k ft AGL this afternoon, with a potential for a few isolated
showers near and west of the I-75 corridor. Light and variable
winds this morning will become northerly to westerly at 5 to 10
kts this afternoon. Gustier winds are possible with virga and any
shower activity.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-104-106-108-111.

Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for KYZ044-
050>052-059-060-086>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...FAGAN/GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...GEERTSON/FAGAN