Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

946
FXUS63 KJKL 271228 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
728 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fast-moving clipper systems will move through late Tuesday and
  late Wednesday, with flurries and patches of light snow
  possible. Some localized minor accumulations could occur.

- Bitter cold weather lasts through the upcoming weekend, with at
  least a brief warming trend then possible early next week.

- There is a low potential for a more widespread light snow event
  this weekend for parts of eastern Kentucky depending on the
  evolution of a possible large system moving up the Eastern
  Seaboard.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2026

Hourly grids were freshened up based on recent observations and
trends. This led to no substantial changes at this time. Temperatures
have begun to inch up under return flow over the last couple of
hours, especially in the west. Temperatures will trend warmer
today ahead of the next clipper system.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 452 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2026

Early this morning an upper level low as centered near eastern
James Bay with a large upper level trough extending into the
Great Lakes and portions of the Central and eastern Conus
downstream of ridging extending from Mexico into the western Conus.
Multiple weak shortwave/clipper like systems were moving through
this trough with another upper level low centered north of Lake
Superior and a shortwave trough extending into the western Great
Lakes. The surface system was centered near the Lake Superior
vicinity with a trailing frontal zone into the Central Plains.
Meanwhile a ridge of sfc high pressure was centered across the
Gulf coast states with the ridging extending into the TN Valley
and eastern KY. Low clouds had largely dissipated with a few stray
patches in the south. Temperatures as of 4 AM were mainly in the
single digits above zero with a few instances of below zero
readings. Winds had generally slackened in the more sheltered
locations and generally southerly at 5 to 10 mph in the more open
terrain locations. This is resulting in some instances of wind
chills well below zero in the highest terrain, with single digits
above zero and single digits below zero elsewhere.

Today, the upper low shortwave currently near Lake Huron will
continue across Ontario and Quebec and into the Northeast/St
Lawrence Valley crossing the Lower to Middle OH Valley later this
afternoon and this evening as the upper level trough remains in
place from Canada into the Central to eastern Conus. This
shortwave trough will shift east of eastern KY tonight, but yet
another shortwave rotating through the trough reaches the western
Great Lakes this evening and then tracks across the western and
into the central Great Lakes tonight. This next shortwave/clipper
then passes across the eastern Great Lakes to Northeast on
Wednesday.

The first clipper system tracks across Ontario and into
Quebec today and across sections of the Northeast tonight. The
systems trailing cold front will approach later today and cross
eastern KY this evening. Guidance has low level moisture across
the area as this system passes and an increase in low clouds is
expected this afternoon with these lingering through tonight.
Generally flurries are possible with this later today, though as
lapse rates increase this evening near the front, some stray snow
showers with localized light accumulations cannot be ruled out.
Temperatures warm this morning with the Extreme Cold Warning and
Cold Weather Advisory remaining in place at this point.

After a bit of a warm up today as far as air temperatures despite
the gustiness, reinforcing colder air will return behind this
evening/nights clipper. This and some lingering gustiness/mixiness
results in marginal apparent T for a Cold Weather Advisory along
and north of I-64 for tonight into Wednesday morning. A Cold
weather advisory has been issued from 03Z tonight through 16Z on
Wednesday in coordination with surrounding WFOs.

Ahead of the approaching front today, BUFKIT momentum transfer
and higher resolution guidance suggests wind gusts should reach
above between 20 and 30 mph at least for peak gusts. So during the
day today, sustained winds and wind gusts were increased from the
NBM deterministic. Pops were increased a bit from the NBM PPI for
tonight to better message the flurry/stray snow shower chances in
the grids with the passing shortwave.

The next clipper system approaches late on Wednesday as noted
above and the column may saturate sufficiently toward the end of
the short term period for flurries to reach the surface in the
north, with better chances of flurries or light snow Wednesday
night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 322 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2026

The forecast period begins with another clipper system tracking
through the Great Lakes. The start of the period coincides with the
arrival of a cold front. Snow showers are possible Wednesday
afternoon, continuing through the frontal passage Wednesday night
before tapering off early Thursday morning. Although the initial
vertical profile is relatively dry, wet-bulbing is expected to
saturate the column, resulting in flurries and isolated snow
showers (0-20%). Little to no accumulation is expected with this
moisture-starved system. In the wake of the departing clipper,
surface high pressure will build into the region; however,
northwesterly flow aloft will maintain persistent cold air
advection.

While clipper activity remains confined to the northern CONUS, a
surface wave is forecast to develop over western Texas as a
shortwave perturbation traverses the mean flow. This feature mirrors
the synoptic setup of the previous weekend, with the primary
moisture source originating from the Gulf Coast. Through Thursday,
this low will track across Texas, reaching the Atlantic coast by
Saturday morning. Strong surface high pressure over the northern
CONUS will keep the system suppressed to the south. However, as the
low pivots northeast along the Atlantic Seaboard as a Noreaster, the
western edge of the precipitation shield is forecast to graze the
eastern half of the CWA. This will introduce another round of
isolated (10-30%) snow showers from Friday night into Saturday.
Subsidence and downsloping on the lee side of the higher terrain are
expected to limit QPF. Nonetheless, light snow showers associated
with the Noreaster remain possible through the weekend.

Behind the exiting coastal system, arctic high pressure will settle
over the region, while northwesterly flow aloft sustains CAA and
well below-average temperatures through the remainder of the period.
The timeframe will be characterized by the passage of two distinct
surface waves bringing isolated snow chances and minimal
accumulations, bookended by a persistent cold pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 711 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2026

VFR ceilings prevailed at TAF issuance across eastern KY. Return
flow has increased from the south and southwest and stronger winds
aloft were leading to a threat of marginal LLWS across the northwest
and west as the period begins. This was occurring ahead of the
next clipper system. KSYM will see the highest potential for this
and the LLWS threat there was included early in the TAF period.
However, with daytime mixing, winds will increase from the
southwest to west generally to 10 to 15KT sustained with gusts as
high as the 20 to 25KT range. Some low and mid clouds were
upstream over OH, IN, and IL, with some instances of MVFR
ceilings. The first 6 hours of the period should have prevailing
VFR for the TAF sites, though low end VFR and MVFR ceilings are
expected to arrive ahead of the next clipper system around or
after 18Z, with some flurries or spotty snow showers expected.
Winds are forecast to become west to northwest and slacken behind
the clipper systems cold front during the last 12 hours of the
period, before trending light and variable late. Low clouds
should begin to scatter out during the last 6 hours of the period
as well.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Cold Warning until noon EST today for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106-108-111-114-116-118.

Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
Wednesday for KYZ044-050>052.

Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST today for KYZ107-109-110-
112-113-115-117-119-120.


&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...JP