Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

159
FXUS63 KJKL 280020
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
820 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High pressure ushers in colder and drier air to begin the
  weekend. Widespread sub-freezing temperatures are expected by
  dawn on Saturday.

- Valley locations generally east of I-75 and south of I-64 should
  experience sub-freezing temperatures on Saturday night to early
  Sunday.

- Significant warming occurs next week, with the potential for
  several consecutive days in the 70s to perhaps lower 80s for
  highs, along with mild overnight lows in the 40s to lower 60s.

- A trend towards a more active weather pattern is beginning to
  take shape during the second half of next week. More significant
  and widespread rainfall is possible.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 820 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026

Precip has exited to the southeast and POPs have been dropped.
There are some very light radar returns starting to show up in
northwest flow near the VA border now. However, forecast soundings
there show only very shallow moisture not likely to support
measurable precip. Clouds will be slower to break up, and heavier
cloud cover has been extended a bit longer into the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 555 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026

Early this evening, a cold front continues to sag southeast of
eastern KY as it progresses across the Appalachians. Showers
linger across the southern portions of the area, but high pressure
was centered over the Northern Plains to upper MS Valley and
beginning to build into the Lower OH Valley. The showers were
occurring where deeper moisture remains in the south where PW was
on the order of 1 to 1.2 inches. Meanwhile drier air is moving in
quickly form the north with PW 0.6 or lower from the I-64
corridor northwest and PW of 0.3 inches and even 0.2 inches or
lower was upstream across OH, IN, and IL into the Great Lakes
region.

Showers lingering in the south should end by around or shortly
after sunset as drier air continues to moves in as the sfc high
builds into the mid MS and Lower OH Valley regions. Skies should
also clear and not only will the airmass be drier it will also be
colder. Temperatures should drop to the freezing mark or lower by
dawn resulting in freezing temperatures after the growing season
has begun. The freeze warning remains in effect for the entire
CWA tonight.

The airmass moving into the region will be very dry for this time
of year on the order of the 5th percentile or drier if not a near
record or near record low PW as the center of the sfc high moves
across the Lower OH Valley and nears the mid OH Valley region.
This will support plenty of sunshine of Saturday and mixing will
result in mixed dewpoints likely reaching the teens on Saturday.
This will result in widespread sub 20 percent min rh if not sub 15
percent in some areas. The dry airmass and the center of the sfc
high shifting east of the Appalachians will result in the start of
southerly return flow on Saturday night. The dry airmass will
almost certainly result in eastern and southeastern valleys well
below the NBM deterministic lows if not below the 5th percentile
lows. Upper 20s and possibly some mid 20s will be possible there
even if more open terrain areas in the west and northwest as well
as the coalfield rides remain above freezing. In coordination
will WFO RLX, a freeze watch was hoisted for roughly the eastern
two thirds of the area for Saturday night to around dawn on
Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 231 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026

Strong low-amplitude mid-level ridging over the southern CONUS will
slide east across the Deep South Tuesday, and then out into the
Atlantic through the remainder of the long-term period (i.e.,
through Thursday night). A very dry air mass this weekend will
moisten with time as a series of warm fronts begin to progress
through the Ohio River Valley beginning Sunday night. Southwesterly
surface and low-level flow will usher in a more progressively humid
air mass, and with a more active storm track across the middle of
the country, rain chances will increase progressively through the
week. Isolated chances for showers and/or thunderstorms are expected
Monday and Tuesday with the ridge axis upstream or overhead, but
rain chances jump into the 60 to 70 percent range for Wednesday into
Thursday as models are coming into better agreement on a more active
pattern.

Temperatures will quickly warm Sunday to above normal levels, with
upper 60s to lower 70s Sunday and 70s to lower 80s Monday into
Tuesday. As humidity and rain chances increase Wednesday into
Thursday, high temperatures then trend back down, but the degree in
which that occurs will likely depend on the timing and extent of
possible showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026

Generally MVFR conditions (due to ceilings) prevailed at TAF
issuance. Improvement will occur from NW to SE tonight, with VFR
conditions forecast to return area wide by dawn and then last
through the day.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Saturday for
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for
KYZ052-060-085>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...HAL