Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

867
FXUS63 KJKL 050513 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1213 AM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably cold temperatures are forecast through this weekend
  before a warming trend emerges early next week.

- A weaker system will bring light precipitation in the form of
  rain and snow to portions of eastern Kentucky Friday into Friday
  night, mainly east of I-75.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026

Light precipitation, snow or mostly snow, lingers near the VA
border. Recent AWOS sites near the KY/VA border report snow
falling and cloud top temperatures support mainly or all snow in
what remains. This activity should depart into VA over the next
couple of hours. Colder air continues to filter into the region on
northwest to northeast sfc winds. And at least temporary clearing
has moved into sections of northern and northeastern KY including
sections of Fleming County. Temperatures were in the teens where
skies had clearing with mainly 20s to around 30 reported further
south. Temperatures remain on track to reach the teens areawide,
and pending the duration of clearing some single digits near and
north of I-64.

Hourly grids were updated based on observation and radar trends
and have been sent to NDFD and webfarms.

UPDATE Issued at 735 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026

Radar returns, especially near or south of the KY 80 corridor
from near London to Hyden and south have filled in as a shortwave
nears. KYTC in Leslie county reported some flurries falling while
there has been some mping reports of snow and the Williamsburg and
Middlesboro AWOS stations have also reported snow or unknown
precipitation at times. Cloud top temps were warmer than -10C in
some areas and the presence of ice in the clouds in those areas is
uncertain. With temperatures there having fallen into the upper
20s to around 30, opted to issue an SPS over the next couple of
hours for patchy snow possibly mixed with freezing drizzle.
Updates to hourly grids were also made based on the radar trends
as well as observation trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 340 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026

As of the 1922Z surface analysis, the forecast area remains on the
backside of a departing surface wave. The surface low is currently
centered over the Upstate of South Carolina. However, its effects
remain far-reaching due to the expansive cloud shield associated
with the low-pressure center. Locally, the region is sandwiched
between the departing surface low to the southeast and surface high
pressure progged to move southeast out of the Upper Plains. Before
the surface high becomes dominant, lingering backside moisture
within the cyclonic flow will maintain areas of drizzle or sprinkles
across the area.

Through the remainder of the day and into the overnight hours, the
surface wave will shift eastward, pulling its impacts over the
Appalachians. High temperatures will top out in the upper-20s across
the Bluegrass, while warming into the mid-30s toward the Tennessee
and Virginia borders. Surface high pressure will continue to build
toward the Commonwealth, allowing for gradual improvement in
conditions. Clouds will begin to clear through the evening and
overnight. Areas that experience clearing could see significant
cooling due to the combination of CAA, clear skies, and lingering
snowpack. This potential is highest across the Bluegrass, where
temperatures are forecast to fall into the upper single digits.
Where cloud cover persists, temperatures are forecast to remain in
the teens to lower 20s.

Thursday brings continued dominance of surface high pressure,
leading to dry weather throughout the day. However, northwesterly
flow aloft will maintain CAA, resulting in suppressed temperatures.
Afternoon highs are expected to reach the mid to upper-20s across
the Bluegrass, while areas toward the Tennessee and Virginia state
lines will likely reach the mid-30s. From Thursday night into
Friday, low-level winds will shift from the northwest to the west,
initiating a period of WAA ahead of the next system. This shift
favors overnight temperatures 5 to 10 degrees warmer than Wednesday
night.

Friday features the approach of a shortwave trough progged to
migrate through the Great Lakes. This feature will drive a mid-level
wind shift and facilitate the transport of a warmer air mass into
the Commonwealth. Precipitation is expected to develop along the
associated warm front; however, the arrival of this moisture is
currently timed within the extended period.

Overall, the forecast is highlighted by the departure of one surface
wave followed by building high pressure for Thursday, with another
system approaching by the end of the period. Temperatures will
remain slightly below normal throughout the timeframe.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 428 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026

The long wave patten will start out amplified over the CONUS,
with deeper troughing seen in the East, while sharper ridging is
aligned from the Continental Divide through northern Mexico. The
pattern will dampen through the weekend and into the first half
of next week. Troughing will shift off to the western Atlantic,
while the ridge broadens as it moves across the central part of
the country. A cutoff low will emerge near the Baja of California
early next week. The model guidance differs on how quickly this
feature transitions to an open short wave and eventually moves
through nearly zonal flow established east of the Rockies by the
middle of next week.

Clouds will already be on the increase across eastern Kentucky
early Friday, with an approaching short wave trough diving
southeast from the Great Lakes through the upper portion of the
Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic region through Friday night.
Surface low pressure will follow suit, with an accompanying
warm/cold front to pass through eastern Kentucky. Probabilities
for measurable precipitation continue to increase with this
system, especially east of I-75; however, it does look a bit
slower to move in. This will allow better temperature recovery in
moderate low level warm air advection. Highs will top out in the
upper 30s north of the Mountain Parkway, to the mid 40s within the
valleys bordering Tennessee. Consequently, this would yield
mainly a rain/snow mix initially, before cold air advection kicks
in Friday night, with a changeover back to snow from northwest to
southeast and from the highest elevations in far southeastern
Kentucky gradually down to the valley floors. Most locations will
see less than an inch of accumulation, as deeper moisture
continues to look limited with this system.

A reinforcing shot of colder air will follow, with lows mainly in
the teens both Friday and Saturday nights and highs knocked back
into the 20s and 30s for Saturday. Highs on Sunday will moderate
back to the 30s and 40s. Dry weather will also generally hold on
through the weekend, although some of the guidance suggests
another short wave trough may brush us from the northeast on
Sunday. Time height forecasts show a little more disjointed
moisture here, so will keep things more optimistic for now, and
just allow for the increase in cloud cover.

Warmer air will be on the way into next week, as 500 mb heights
build into the Ohio Valley, thanks to an approaching ridge
upstream. Highs will return to the 50s, with even a few 60 degree
readings across our south by Tuesday. Lows will moderate to the
20s and 30s. As usual, there will be a price for the warmer
temperatures, with a return of unsettled weather by Tuesday night
and continuing through the middle of next week. Details are murky
at this point, so probabilities only peak in the chance (30%)
range for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026

A mixture of VFR ceilings in northern and northeastern KY to MVFR
ceilings further south was reported at issuance time. A low
pressure system is slowly departing to the east while an upper
level disturbance is currently crossing the region. High pressure
will begin to build into the region late tonight and across the
area on Thursday. A gradual trend in improving ceilings is
anticipated with current satellite trends supporting VFR returning
to KSYM, KIOB, and KSJS over the first 3 hours of the period,
with gradual clearing and the arrival of VFR further to the south
into the day on Thursday. During peak heating on Thursday some
low clouds could at least briefly redevelop, so this coupled with
timing of the clearing, there remains uncertainty in the ceiling
forecast. Winds will average from the north at less than 10KT to
begin the period and eventually become light and variable as the

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...JP