Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

126
FXUS63 KJKL 190720
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
320 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much cooler air arrives Sunday and Monday behind a couple of
  cold fronts. Patchy frost is possible in northern sheltered
  valleys, primarily on Monday night and early Tuesday morning.

- Elevated fire weather concerns exist Monday through at least
  Wednesday due to dry conditions.

- Well above-normal temperatures return late next week, along with
  the next chance for area-wide rainfall by Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids
and a tweaking of the PoPs and thunder chances through the next
few hours. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and
web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 830 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2026

00Z sfc analysis shows a cold front pressing through eastern
Kentucky. This is maintaining a chance for thunder in the far east
as colder temperatures start to surge in on northwest winds of 10
to 15 mph with higher gusts right behind the boundary. Currently,
temperatures range from the lower 50s in the northwest to the mid
60s in the far east ahead of the front. Meanwhile, dewpoints vary
from the upper 40s northwest to the lower 60s in the southeast.
Have updated the forecast mainly to adjust the PoPs per the
frontal movement and latest CAMs guidance with the anticipation of
the pcpn becoming more light rain and drizzle towards midnight -
post frontal. Did also add in the latest obs and trends for the
T/Td/Sky grids. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and
web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 441 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2026

Regional radar shows a broken line of convective showers with
occasional stronger updrafts that briefly yield a few pulses of
lightning along an outflow boundary extending from Pikeville to
Middlesboro at 2020Z. Behind that outflow, a cooler and stable
air mass has spread across much of eastern Kentucky with cloudy
skies and weak scattered shower activity. A strong cold front
remains upstream, extending from Cleveland to Frankfort to
Nashville but is attended by little more than a marked wind shift
from southwest to northwest, a period of gusty winds and
temperatures falling from the 60s into the 50s and even 40s. In
fact, at 2020Z temperatures ranged from 82F in Whitesburg ahead of
the outflow boundary to 47F at multiple KY Mesonet sites in
western Kentucky. Aloft, this strong cold front is supported by a
high amplitude trough extending from Central Canada nearly to the
Western Gulf Coast.

The aforementioned front will continue to drop southeast this
evening, reaching the Lake Cumberland and Eastern Bluegrass areas by
around 6-7 PM and continue on to the KY-VA border by around 10 to
11 PM. As the low pressure departs, high resolution models support,
to varying degrees, a period of isentropic ascent resulting in a
period of steady light stratiform rainfall spreading across the area
through midnight before diminishing from the northwest through the
early morning hours ahead of the approaching 500 hPa trough axis.
Meanwhile, low-level CAA sends temperatures falling into the
upper 30s to mid 40s by daybreak. The clouds should thin out for
a mostly sunny day across all of eastern Kentucky on Sunday but it
will be cool compared to recent days with highs struggling to
reach 60F. The chill will be compounded by a breeze gusting to
between 15 and 25 mph. A reinforcing 500 hPa shortwave trough
drops in the Ohio Valley Sunday night sending a secondary cold
front dropping across eastern Kentucky. Moisture return will be
very limited ahead of this front, but multiple CAMs do suggest
some weak convection developing along the boundary; the better
chances are northeast where the upper-level forcing will be
stronger and also over the southeastern counties where orographic
enhancement is likely. Temperatures will be quite chilly, dropping
into the mid 30s north to low 40s south overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 409 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2026

With the upper level trough departing our area, the long term
period opens with much cooler weather; temperatures are expected
to be well below average on Monday. Notably, a few sprinkles
cannot be ruled out on Monday morning, associated with a secondary
cold that should push south of the area by the afternoon. The
main weather impact on Monday night will be frost or light freeze
concerns. With dew points plummeting behind the cold front, clear
skies and light winds due to high pressure to our north should
support sufficient cooling for frost formation in valleys.

Tuesday will bring warm and dry weather as upper level ridging
builds. Unfortunately, this will also lead to a return of elevated
fire danger. High temperatures will climb closer to average for
this time of year (70s) while dewpoints remain relatively low.
Breezy winds (15-25 mph gusts) will also support these concerns as
the pressure gradient tightens. While southwesterly winds will
make a weak attempt at moisture recovery over the furthest west
portion of the forecast area, it remains unclear how far east this
moisture will push. Consequently, RH values are favored to
approach critical thresholds across eastern Kentucky on Tuesday.

From Wednesday onward, moisture will gradually increase with
southwesterly to westerly flow, eventually alleviating fire
weather concerns by the end of the week. A cold front moving
across the Ohio Valley will bring a slight chance of precipitation
to the northern portion of our area on Wednesday. However, as
this front drifts further south it will become less defined, with
limited upper level support. As a result, PoPs remain low for the
vast majority of the area, with no significant rainfall expected.
Following the disintegration of this weak boundary, upper level
ridging and warm temperatures will dominate until the next
shortwave trough approaches later on Friday. A cold front
associated with this upper level feature will move through the
area Saturday, bringing a chance of showers and perhaps
thunderstorms. Per the LREF, the chance for at least a quarter-
inch of rain from this system is medium (40-60% chance),
indicating that Saturday could be our next chance for truly
appreciable precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2026

Light showers were occurring across the forecast area at the start
of the period. Conditions were mostly MVFR near the TN border and
over extreme eastern KY, and VFR elsewhere in the forecast area.
The precipitation will exit to the southeast and conditions will
improve to VFR area wide as ceilings break up overnight and early
Sunday morning. VFR conditions then persist through the rest of
the period. However, ceilings in the 5-10K ft AGL range are
forecast to be entering from the north, along with a slight chance
of showers, near the end of the forecast period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...FAGAN/GEERTSON
AVIATION...HAL