Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

241
FXUS63 KJKL 251835
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
235 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Humid and often wet weather will last through mid week.

- Rain should become less prevalent late in the week as drier air
  arrives from the north.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 946 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026

Mid morning obs were blended into the forecast without any
substantive changes for the day as a whole.

UPDATE Issued at 740 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids
along with a tinkering of the fog areas through 14Z. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
a freshening of the zones. The fog SPS was updated and pushed
through 14Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026

08Z sfc analysis shows weak low pressure through Kentucky with a
stalled front laying over the area. As a result, even though the
deeper moisture has shifted off to the east, some showers remain
in far southeast Kentucky with patchy drizzle to the northwest of
the rain. In addition, low clouds and areas of dense fog are found
over northern parts of the JKL CWA with patchy dense fog
elsewhere. High humidity throughout the lower Ohio Valley
continues and as such dewpoints are close to temperatures. Similar
to last night they are holding in the mid 60s most places, amid
light to calm winds.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in fairly
good agreement aloft, through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict persistent strong h5 ridging off the
Southeast Coast. This is helping to anchor a stream of southwest
mid-level wind flow through Kentucky even as deeper troughing
passes by to the northeast this morning. Meanwhile, another area
of troughing is located over eastern Texas but is opening up and
allowing its energy to be swept up in the southwest air stream at
mid-levels. As a result, some energy and a more distinct impulse
head into the state from this later this evening and overnight. A
shift in the Southeast ridge seems to be enough to shunt this wave
a tad to the northwest as it approaches on Tuesday. Given the
high correlation the models aloft, the NBM was used as the
starting point for the short term grids with little changes
needed. The main adjustments to the initialization included adding
higher resolution timing and placement details for the PoP grids
through Tuesday from the latest CAMs guidance.

Sensible weather features what should be more of a lull in the
shower and thunderstorm activity for the last day of the holiday
weekend with PoP chances less than 50 percent for all but the far
southeast parts of the JKL CWA - where the front will stall out.
Even in places that have a better shot at seeing more convection,
QPF amounts look to be lighter and any thunderstorms less
organized than those of yesterday. This lull does not last long
for the area, though, as more showers and storms will likely
develop and move in from the southwest later tonight with a wave
moving northeast along the front and dragging it back northwest
and deeper into the area on Tuesday. As such, the threat of heavy
rain returns on Tuesday for the entire CWA continuing this very
damp latter half of May.

The changes to the NBM starting point once again mainly consisted
of including PoP and thunder details from the latest CAMs
guidance through Tuesday evening. As for temperatures and
dewpoints, they were not adjusted much given the moist air mass -
but did shave the highs back toward modeled hourly temps each
afternoon and likewise brought the lows up a tad at night as the
high dewpoints limit nightly temperature drops with an overall
small diurnal temperature trace.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026

A stationary front will be situated just north and west of the
area to begin the long-term period Wednesday, with Eastern
Kentucky entrenched within the muggy warm sector to its
southeast. A shortwave will cross the area during the day
Wednesday within southwesterly mid-level flow, with widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity within an environment
characterized by PWs around 1.8" and on top of saturated soils,
which will raise the possibility of at least isolated excessive
rainfall impacts.

The stationary front moves south through the area as a cold front
Wednesday night into Thursday as southwesterly mid-level flow turns
northerly for the second half of the week. A series of upper
troughs then dig south from eastern Canada through the Mid-
Atlantic to end the week into early next week. Big question mark
for Thursday and Friday is whether a wave within more westerly
flow aloft ahead of a deep closed low traversing the New England
region is able to ride along the stationary front to our south
and bring rain/showers to southern parts of the forecast area. At
this time, there is enough uncertainty to warrant low-end PoPs
across much of the forecast area, especially south of I-64 from
Thursday night through Sunday, with high enough confidence to take
out rain chances from roughly I-64 and points north as surface
high pressure should be close enough to suppress rain chance
south. By Sunday night, it appears all areas should be free of any
significant PoPs as surface high pressure prevails across the
Ohio River Valley.

Temperatures will remain mild through the period, with highs and
lows near normal overall (mid to upper 70s for highs, upper 50s
for lows) as southwesterly flow becomes northerly, and humid and
cloudy conditions with rain chances transition to a cooler and
drier regime.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026

Conditions were largely MVFR and VFR at the start of the period,
but there were some pockets of IFR lingering. Isolated showers
were also present. Showers will peak in coverage late today and
provide localized MVFR (and perhaps spotty IFR in heavier showers
or thunderstorms) until early evening. Otherwise, more of the area
should see improvement to VFR during the afternoon. Once most of
the showers die out this evening, a brief period of largely VFR
conditions is forecast. However, showers are again expected to
increase over the area from south to north late tonight, and with
this a general degradation to IFR conditions is forecast, lasting
well into the day Tuesday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL/GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...HAL