Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

249
FXUS63 KJKL 221215 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
715 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Briefly warmer weather lingers one more day before very cold
  temperatures descend into Kentucky tonight and Friday - lasting
  well into next week.

- A major winter storm system is on track to bring significant
  snow and ice accumulations this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 445 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026

09Z sfc analysis shows Kentucky under the influence of persistent
low pressure to the north, though a cold front is approaching
from the northwest ahead of a quick moving area of chilly high
pressure just west of the Mississippi. Some low clouds, with
pockets of very light rain, are departing to the east of the
state early this morning allowing for clearing skies in its wake.
Currently, thanks to cloudy conditions for most of the night,
temperatures are mild - readings range from the mid 30s in the
northwest to the low 40s southeast. Meanwhile, amid southwest
winds of 5 to 10 mph, dewpoints vary from the low 30s northwest
to near 40 degrees in the far southeast.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in
excellent agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict Kentucky near the base of a still
dominant 5h trough encompassing much of the continent. This is
keeping very fast mid-level flow going west to east over the
region while the bulk of any impulses and energy stay north of the
state. A weak perturbation does pass over eastern Kentucky this
afternoon as a 5h trough axis moves through. To the north, the
Polar gyre shifts a bit south and into the northern Great Lakes on
Friday just as an anomalously deep and south closed low off of the
Baja Peninsular looks to come ashore and eventually work east
into the faster flow over the weekend. This gradual development
will extend the threat of winter impacts beyond a normal winter
storm for Kentucky. Given the near term model similarities, used
the NBM as the starting point of the forecast grids with only
minor adjustments made to temperatures at specific spots.

Sensible weather features a mild start to the day and some of our
last 40+ degree high temperatures, for awhile, despite the
passage of a cold front this morning - thanks to more sunshine.
The return to winter conditions will begin inauspiciously enough
as another stronger, but still dry, cold front descends into the
area from the north late tonight into Friday morning. It is this
arriving cold air, on the leading edge of a very strong area of
high pressure from the northwest, that will set the stage for our
upcoming winter storm. This ensures a dome of dense Arctic air is
in place to be overrun by a large amount of Pacific and Gulf
moisture through the weekend.

The changes to the NBM starting point primarily consisted of
just some spot temperature forecast adjustments at various
locations through Friday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 423 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026

The forecast period begins with a post-frontal surface high pressure
system building southward from central Canada into the Upper
Midwest. While the center of the high remains to the northwest, its
influence will provide a cold, dry antecedent air mass across
eastern Kentucky. Simultaneously, a potent surface low, preformed
over southern Texas, will track along a stalled baroclinic zone.
This feature is expected to eject quickly northeastward, reaching
the doorstep of the CWA by Saturday morning. Overnight temperatures
Friday night are forecast to range from the single digits in the
Bluegrass to the upper teens near the Tennessee border.

By Saturday morning, the surface low is progged to move through the
Tennessee Valley, with snow showers increasing from the southwest.
Deep-layer cold air will initially support snow across the entire
region. However, recent ENS and GEFS ensemble trends suggest the
surface low will track along the spine of the Appalachians before
pivoting northwest over the CWA by Sunday morning. This more inland
track will allow a warm conveyor belt to infiltrate the mid-levels,
leading to a transition toward a wintry mix Saturday afternoon. This
mix of snow, freezing rain, and sleet is most likely south of the
Hal Rogers Parkway and KY-80 corridor, though it could extend as far
north as a line from Estill to Martin County. The highest snowfall
totals are anticipated north of this transition line, specifically
across the Bluegrass and I-64 corridor. Significant uncertainty
remains regarding the exact track; a northward shift would increase
the inland penetration of the warm nose, whereas a southward shift
would keep the column colder and increase snowfall totals. Despite
track nuances, LREF probabilities indicate high confidence in
significant accumulations. Probabilities for exceeding 4 inches
(Winter Storm Warning criteria) range from 50 to 100 percent across
the region. For 8 inches, probabilities exceed 50 percent north of
KY-80, reaching 75 percent near I-64. There is even a 30 to 50
percent chance of totals exceeding 12 inches from Somerset to
Paintsville and points north. As the system exits Sunday night,
strong CAA will transition any remaining precipitation back to snow
before ending Monday morning.

Behind the departing low, an Arctic high will settle over the
region. Strong CAA will usher in the coldest temperatures of the
season, with Monday highs struggling to reach the upper teens or mid-
20s. Overnight lows Monday night are expected to drop into the
single digits or below zero, further enhanced by optimal radiational
cooling over a fresh snowpack. While a shift to quasi-zonal flow
will allow a gradual moderating trend into the 20s and 30s later in
the week, a weak clipper system may bring renewed snowfall chances
by the end of the period.

A significant storm system originating from the Southern Plains will
bring widespread snowfall and a wintry mix to the region through the
weekend. High confidence exists for totals exceeding 4 inches in
many areas. Following the storm, an Arctic air mass will result in
the coldest temperatures of the season, exacerbated by clear skies
and snow cover.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026

A cold front is moving southeast through the area at 12Z issuance
time. This is passing dry but bringing with it a brief deck of
MVFR ceilings that is impacting a few of the TAF sites. Improvement
to VFR everywhere will occur during the 12Z to 16Z period -
following FROPA. Winds will average southwest to west at generally
less than 10 kts through 21Z, before becoming light and variable
into the evening and overnight.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Monday morning
for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...JP/GREIF