Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

176
FXUS63 KJKL 300455 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1155 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A widespread dry and fluffy snow event is expected
  Friday/Saturday, primarily near/south of the Mountain Parkway
  and over the Big Sandy River Basin. Greatest accumulations are
  expected near the KY-VA border.

- Cold weather lasts through the upcoming weekend, with at least a
  brief warming trend following early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1130 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids
as well as guiding the pickup in PoPs just south of the Mountain
Parkway late tonight in line with the latest CAMs. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
a freshening of the SAFS and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 750 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026

00Z sfc analysis shows high pressure to the north of the state
being impinged on by the approach of low pressure coming out of
the Southern Plains. This is starting to push a frontogenetic
zone into the area resulting a narrow band where snow is expected
to develop from west to east along it towards dawn - generally
south of I-64. A few flurries will be possible ahead of that time
from a mid level deck of clouds already in place over eastern
Kentucky. Currently, temperatures are running in the low 20s north
to near 30 degrees in the far south. Meanwhile, amid light north
winds, dewpoints are generally in the upper single digits to mid
teens throughout the area. Have updated the forecast mainly to add
in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
a freshening of the zones. We continue to watch the latest high
resolution model data come in concerning a possible upgrade to a
winter storm warning in the far southeast for this event.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 445 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026

After another cold day across the Commonwealth, thermometers
range from the lower 20s north to lower 30s south at 4 PM with
light and variable winds. Satellite and surface observations show
clouds thickening quickly ahead of our next wintry storm system.
The latest analysis shows surface high pressure ridging still
nosing into the Ohio Valley from a strong high over Central
Canada. Meanwhile, a weak elongated surface low is noted in the
vicinity of the Ark-La-Tex. A wavy, stalled frontal boundary
extends eastward from the low across the Gulf Coast States to off
the South Carolina Coast. Aloft, a deep elongated 500 hPa
low/trough extends west to east from Lake Superior to Newfoundland.
Meanwhile, a 500 hPa shortwave of Pacific origin is passing over
the Central/Southern Plains (and supporting the aforementioned
weak surface low).

The northern stream trough will pivot counterclockwise through
the short-term with the westernmost portion shearing away and
closing off into another deep low which will plunge into the
Tennessee Valley by late Friday night. This extremely energetic
trough will increasingly interact with southern stream vorticity
energy streaming east from the subtropical Pacific. Thus, it
appears that the weak surface low tracking through the Gulf Coast
states will rapidly intensify once it moves off the Carolina coast
and become a full-fledged Noreaster this weekend. For eastern
Kentucky, most of the upcoming precipitation in the next 36 hours
appears to occur along a zone of W-E oriented frontogenesis which
develops tonight between the surface low passing to our south and
the deep trough approaching from the north. Model guidance has
tended to struggle with where the resulting frontogenetic band
develops, though a majority of solutions indicate primarily across
areas south of the Mountain Parkway. This band will then
gradually pivot more SW- NE later in the day and Friday night as
the low reaches the Atlantic seaboard and begins to intensify.
Probabilities for at least 1 inch of snow were high enough to
warrant Winter Weather Advisory issuance for locations south of
the Mountain Parkway and over the Big Sandy River Basin. However,
the northern edge of the snowfall remains quite uncertain and
there is certainly some potential for the northern tier of the
Winter Weather Advisory to bust or even need to be expanded
northward, depending upon how everything comes together.
Confidence remains highest for a notable accumulating snowfall for
locations south of the Hal Rogers/KY-80 Corridor, but even there
model spread remains large and the higher end scenarios could
still support warning event snowfall tallies. Later shifts will
continue to keep a close eye on this evolving situation. In
addition to the snowfall, an arctic air mass will filter in on a
northerly flow on the backside of the snow band. The cold air mass
combined with a light breeze appears sufficient for apparent
temperatures to fall within Cold Weather Advisory thresholds
across the Bluegrass, Lake Cumberland, and I-75 corridor areas
late Friday night.

In sensible weather terms, expect increasing clouds tonight with
the potential for a few flurries or a little patchy light snow
overnight. A more sustained west-to-east band of snowfall is
expected to develop near or south of the Mountain Parkway toward
daybreak. This band will then slowly turn more SW-NE on Friday as
it begins to slowly sink southeastward. North of where this band
develops, expect little or nothing more than a few flurries and no
impactful accumulation. Most areas affected by the band should
pick up at least 1 inch. The band is expected to linger longest
over the two tiers of counties adjacent to the VA-KY border Friday
night and that is where at least 1 to 3 inches of snow are likely
(there remains a non-negligible risk for significantly greater
amounts in this area). Temperatures will be milder tonight,
bottoming out in the upper single digits north to the lower 20s
south. Similar high temperatures are expected again on Friday with
highs in the lower 20s north to lower 30s south. Colder
temperatures then return Friday night on a biting northerly breeze
as thermometers dip to near 0F north and into the single digits
to lower 10s in most other places.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 422 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026

A snow event is expected to be ongoing at the start of the period
for the southeast portion of the forecast area, but getting ready to
wind down. A potent upper level low should pass just to our
southwest and south on Saturday, with its associated surface
development off the southeast coast. Models are still not in
agreement concerning how quickly the deep moisture/precip associated
with it pulls out, with the GFS slowest, NAM fastest, and the
ECMWF in between. Have compromised and allowed for the advisory to
run through Saturday morning, but that may end up being adjusted
later.

Flurries or snow showers are then expected to persist or redevelop
behind the departing system. An area of moisture currently over
southeast Canada (oddly enough, associated with warm air advection
from the north) is expected to drop south to the Ohio Valley by
Saturday night as it is fading and becoming more shallow. With the
aforementioned surface low exploding off the East Coast, our low
level flow will become more upslope, and with very shallow
instability present in the prime DGZ as the moisture arrives, a few
flakes should fly. Think that it will be a relatively high
probability of very minimal or unmeasurable precip.

The moisture fades later Saturday night or Sunday and surface
ridging should build in from the west bringing decreasing clouds and
slackening winds. This could set up for very cold temperatures
Sunday night, especially for any valleys which can decouple.
However, the ridge may already slip to our east by Monday morning,
which would result in warm air advection returning, potentially with
a significant pressure gradient ahead of the next cold front. This
would limit low temps outside of the normally coldest eastern
valleys. It also sets us up for temperatures to finally warm to the
30s on Monday. The cold front will be weakening, and even if it
technically passes, a warming trend is likely to continue with all
of the area expecting above freezing high temperatures by Tuesday.

At this point, models begin showing much more disagreement pointing
to considerably uncertainty with how things evolve mid-late week.
This pertains particularly to the timing and latitude of an upper
trough transiting the eastern CONUS. That being the case, the model
blended forecast which was used is likely to change.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026

VFR conditions still are holding for the 06Z issuance time and
should continue through the bulk of the night in spite of
thickening and lowering cloud cover. A frontogenetically-forced
band of light snow is on track to develop south of I-64 and
generally the Mountain Parkway around daybreak Friday and impact
terminals across all of southeastern Kentucky during the daylight
hours with mainly not much worse than MVFR CIGs and VIS. Winds
will generally be northeast to north at 5 kts or less tonight and
Friday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to noon EST Saturday for KYZ044-
050>052-068-069-079-080-083>085.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for KYZ058-
107-111.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Friday to 3 AM EST Saturday
for KYZ068-069-079-080-083-084-109-112-114-119.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Friday to noon EST Saturday
for KYZ085>088-110-113-115>118-120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GREIF