Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

887
FXUS63 KJKL 162050
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
350 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  A warming trend will last through Thursday, with some places
   potentially topping 70 then. Cooling then arrives by the
   weekend.

-  The next likelihood of rain is Thursday-Thursday night, with a
   slight chance of thunderstorms in most of the area, as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 350 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026

20Z sfc analysis shows high pressure passing through eastern
Kentucky. This has finally cleared out the lower clouds from the
area allowing for plenty of late afternoon sunshine. This helped
to push temperatures toward the expected highs, if slightly
delayed. Currently, readings are running in the upper 40s north -
where the clouds cleared last - to the lower 60s in the south -
that basked in full sunshine all day. Meanwhile, amid light and
variable winds, dewpoints vary from the low to mid 40s in the west
to the mid and upper 30s in the east.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in very
good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict slowly building 5h heights for eastern
Kentucky as ridging eases into the area from the southwest through
Tuesday morning. Flat northwest flow at mid levels will keep any
energy to the north of the area through the night. However, a
strong, full-latitude, trough will start to press toward Kentucky
into Wednesday morning switching the mid level pattern to
southwesterly with more energy heading this way for mid-week.
Given the similarity among the models, the NBM was used as the
starting point of the forecast grids with some adjustments made
for overnight temperatures tonight honing in on terrain
distinctions and details.

Sensible weather features a mostly clear night and good
radiational cooling conditions that will likely lead to a ridge
and valley temperature split developing along with a potential for
valley fog. This warm pattern will kick into high gear on Tuesday
with readings topping out in the mid and upper 60s most places by
late afternoon. More clouds arrive, though, and continue around
into that night preventing much of a terrain difference from
showing up through Wednesday morning.

The changes to the NBM starting point primarily consisted of again
allowing for some extra terrain enhancements tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 302 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026

There is reasonable model agreement for the first couple days of the
long term period. A deep (but filling), occluded, and relatively
stacked low pressure system is expected to be centered near Fargo
early Wednesday.  We will be in a warm air advection regime ahead of
the system`s cold front over the Midwest, with a limited amount of
low level gulf moisture picked up by the flow ahead of the front,
and upper level moisture (producing virga) present in a long west
southwesterly fetch off the Pacific. However, at this time,
lingering mid level dry air looks to prevent column saturation and
the low level moisture looks capped to prevent convection. Hence the
POP remains low on Wednesday. The weakening cold frontal boundary
will probably not make it here before it dissolves.

By Wednesday night the next system should already be shaping up as
another wave moves into a larger scale western CONUS trough and
supports deepening of a lee surface low over the high plains. As it
heads east it already begins to strengthen our warm air advection by
Thursday morning with flow heading north and northeast off the gulf.
This gives an increase in our POP by Thursday morning and lasting at
least into Thursday night as the deep surface low slowly crosses the
Midwest and maintains our flow off the gulf. The system`s cold front
is expected to pass through in the neighborhood of late Thursday
night/early Friday. Weak instability may be realized in the warm
sector ahead of the front, and speed and directional shear will be
increasing. SPC has placed the northwest portion of the forecast
area in a slight risk, but instability looks questionable enough
that it doesn`t look all that exciting yet.

Current indications are that any precip lingering into Friday would
end as rapid drying occurs post cold fropa. By this time, large
model discrepancies are taking shape, both run to run and model to
model. A significant part of this involves the strength of the upper
level low associated with the last system and how long it lingers
moving through the Midwest and Great Lakes, and another significant
part involves a potential shortwave trough or upper low ejecting
east northeast from the southwest CONUS as the weekend starts and
its (possible) subsequent interaction with a northern stream upper
low moving east across the Great Lakes. With model disagreement
concerning so many moving parts in the machine, forecast confidence
is low for the coming weekend. The model blend in use for the
forecast can be expected to change its story before then.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026

High pressure is building across the area at TAF issuance. A
stubborn low MVFR stratus deck along and north of I-64 will
gradually retreat/erode northward through the afternoon, allowing
improvement to VFR area wide by 21Z. Once VFR develops, it then
holds through the end of the period at the TAF terminals, though
valley fog formation tonight could lead to renewed restrictions at
non-TAF airfields such as KI35 and K1A6. Winds will be generally
light and variable through the end the period, as well.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF