Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

300
FXUS63 KJKL 211940
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
240 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Much colder air arrives Sunday and lingers into early next
   week.

-  Accumulating snow is expected for much of eastern Kentucky
   Sunday into Monday, especially east of Interstate 75. A Winter
   Weather Advisory has been issued for parts of northeastern and
   southeastern Kentucky.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 240 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026

An upper trough traversing the center of the country this afternoon
will amplify in conjunction with a developing surface low tonight
along the Carolina coastline. Rapid deepening of the surface and
upper low is then expected just off the Mid-Atlantic coast
tomorrow into Monday, with several shortwave disturbances moving
southeast across the Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions Sunday
through Monday night within an energetic jet stream.

Light precipitation is expected to develop this evening across much
of eastern Kentucky with the upper trough passage, with temperatures
falling to levels just cold enough for rain to possibly mix with
or change over to light snow before ending later tonight. No
significant impacts are expected other than wet roads, with any
very light snow accumulations confined to the Big Black Mountain
to Pound Gap area.

Chances for winter weather impacts increase through the day Sunday
and last into Monday as the aforementioned disturbances provide
forcing for ascent in conjunction with low-level cold advection and
upslope/frictional effects with the complex terrain of the
Cumberland Plateau and Southern Appalachians. The steadiest and
highest snow accumulations are expected along a rather narrow
corridor extending from Pike and Martin Counties south-southwest to
Harlan County, where there is high probability of at least 1 inch of
snow. Within this corridor, locally higher accumulations to 5 inches
or more will be possible, but the areal extent and relatively low
probability of occurrence is too low to warrant anything other than
a Winter Weather Advisory at this time.

For areas primarily east of Interstate 75, and especially adjacent
areas north and northwest of the Winter Weather Advisory, periods of
snow will be possible with the potential for squally conditions at
times as winds gust to 25 mph or higher at times. Many of these
areas may need an upgrade to a Winter Weather Advisory should the
snow accumulation forecast increase just a little, especially if
moisture from Lake Michigan can enhance snow shower activity over
parts of the area Monday. For areas along and west of Interstate
75, any snow accumulations are likely to be very low impact and
generally a trace to less than one-half inch, but will bear close
watching.

Temperatures fall from the 40s and 50s this afternoon into the 20s
and 30s tonight, and will recover very little Sunday and Monday,
with many locations only reaching near freezing or just slightly
above. This will increase the chances for snow to cause issues to
travel, particularly in the advisory area.

Another complicating factor to the snow will be the strong gusty
winds. Gusts of 15 to 25 mph, and locally stronger in the higher
terrain, will cause sudden and possibly significant visibility
reductions. The Snow Squall Parameter suggests the potential for
snow squalls at times, mainly during the Sunday and Monday afternoon
periods, with the highest potential in Pike County and extending to
adjacent counties to the north and northwest.

Snow showers will become increasingly confined to the immediate
upslope areas of Pike and Letcher counties late Monday through the
overnight, with shower activity diminishing to flurries before
ending late Monday night or early Tuesday morning.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 425 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026

Through Sunday, a surface low in the Southeast US, on the lee side
of an upper level trough, will work up the the East coast, maturing
into a strong Noreaster in the process. Meanwhile, a secondary
embedded shortwave originating on the upwind side of the same upper
level trough, will propagate southeast out of the Upper Mississippi
Valley into western portions of the Ohio Valley. With multiple
vorticity lobs transiting over the area, cold air continuing to advect
in, and a saturated DGZ layer, snow showers are likely overnight
Sunday into Monday. Getting into the day monday, some dry air starts
to mix into the DGZ as the stronger surface low continues to track
well into New England. Some models and quick to clear out the snow
shower chances through Monday, however, northwest flow on the upwind
side of a departing low notoriously produces upslope snow showers
that tend to linger. As such, POPs were adjusted up and held onto a
little further west for Monday afternoon and early evening.
Adjustments may have been conservative at present, but can always be
adjusted as needed in future forecast updates. The chances for
accumulating snow over an inch has shifted east some from the
previous forecast, but generally remains east of a line extending
form Harlan to Hazard to Paintsville. LREF probabilities continue to
show much of Pike County and parts of adjacent counties have a 40
percent or greater chance of at least 1 inch snow accumulation, with
much of eastern Pike County (especially higher elevations) having a
~10 percent chance of 2 or more inches of snow. Temperatures Sunday
night will generally fall into the low to mid 20s. With breezy
conditions possible, and gust of 20-25 mph, wind chills may be
hovering in the single digits to teens. Monday temperatures struggle
to make it above the freezing mark, with snow showers and flurries
which could linger through Monday night and into Tuesday morning.
Monday night lows will drop into the teens to low 20s.

Tuesday, a drier regime briefly works into the area, with weak
upper level ridging and rising heights aloft. A mix of sun and
clouds is expected with temperatures warming into the low to mid
40s. Ridging would have lasted longer if not for another upper level
low coming out of Central Canada and the Northern Plains, Monday
evening. Through Tuesday this upper-level low moves into the Great
Lakes. At some point either Wednesday evening or Thursday morning,
this systems cold front will move through Kentucky, bringing PWAT
values around an inch to the area. Numerous rain showers are
expected Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon, with another
trough axis moving through Eastern Kentucky Thursday night.
Temperatures gradually warm through the end of the wee, generally in
the low to upper 50s through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026

VFR conditions will hold until early this evening. Then MVFR, and
perhaps some IFR, conditions move in through the evening into the
overnight along with some light rain and/or snow. Brief
improvements to VFR conditions are possible from the west after
~07z tonight, but conditions will worsen again after 12z as low
clouds quickly develop from the northwest. Winds will be light
and variable or from the northwest through much of the period, but
will begin to increase after ~14z Sunday to 8 to 12 kts sustained
with gusts 18 to 22 kts.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday for
KYZ088-110-113-115-118>120.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC