Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

666
FXUS63 KJKL 251951
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
251 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Milder temperatures will make a comeback for the next week.

- The greatest probability of precipitation (mainly rain) over the
  next week is tonight or Thursday for most locations.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 232 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026

Temps are slightly ahead of the forecasted rise, and today`s
maxes have been raised slightly.

UPDATE Issued at 1038 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026

Did a minor mid morning update containing a small increase in sky
cover today and blending T/Td obs into the fcst.

UPDATE Issued at 640 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026

Winds have settled a bit across the north with still some good
gusts found to the west of the JKL CWA. Will remove the mention in
the HWO and let the SPS expire at 13Z. Otherwise, no significant
changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion
of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td grids. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 555 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026

10Z sfc analysis shows a tight pressure gradient across Kentucky
as a fairly deep low is passing through the Great Lakes - north
of high pressure holding over the Southeast and still influencing
southeast parts of the state. This gradient is keeping the winds
up this night - generally from the southwest at 5 to 15 mph with
some gusts to as high as 35 mph - mainly for places along and
north of the Mountain Parkway and points west of I-75. A cold
front is slipping south toward northern Kentucky this morning
pushing plenty of clouds through the area along with some very
light rain and virga (likely bringing down some of the higher
winds aloft) in the northern parts of the CWA. Currently,
temperatures are generally in the low to mid 40s most places.
Meanwhile, dewpoints vary from the low 20s west to the teens in
the far east.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, continue to be
in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict the passing of a 5h trough through the
Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley. This maintains west to
northwesterly mid-level flow through the state during the short
term carrying a few impulses along with it. The last of these is
the most impressive and will help to generate our best chances of
soaking rains for the period. With still similar model solutions
through Thursday evening, the NBM was used as the starting point
of the grids with mainly some adjustments to the PoPs and QPF made
to incorporate factors of the current CAMs consensus.

Sensible weather features a breezy and cloudy start to the day
with still some gusts to between 30 and 40 mph possible ahead of
and along a cold front dropping south into the area. This will
also try to squeeze out some light rain from the lower clouds.
Some limited afternoon sunshine will help us get to mid and upper
50s for highs, most places. The cold front settles into southern
parts of the area by evening, with more moisture pooling along it
for tonight as it starts working back north. This boundary, now
more of a warm front, will continue to focus the rain - perhaps
even mixing with some light snow north - late tonight into
Thursday morning. This pcpn area then slides east and out of the
area early in the afternoon. The sfc wave associated with this -
supported by the mid-level impulse - will make for a cooler
afternoon with temperatures only reaching the upper 40s north and
low 50s south.

The changes to the NBM starting point primarily consisted of
tweaking the PoPs today into Thursday morning per the latest
higher resolution CAMs guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026

The period begins with surface high pressure building into the
region in the wake of Thursdays cold front. As this high settles
over the area for Friday, dry conditions and a warming trend will
develop and persist through the weekend. Temperatures are progged to
peak on Saturday, with highs ranging from the low to upper 60s.
However, upper-level divergence ahead of an approaching entrance
region of a jet streak will support surface cyclogenesis in the Mid-
Mississippi Valley by Saturday afternoon. This low will track
eastward, sustained by favorable jet dynamics. By Saturday night,
PoP will increase to 15 to 20 percent for the overnight period,
primarily for areas along and north of a line from Jackson to Pike
Counties. The highest PoP chances will remain in Ohio and Indiana,
in closer proximity to the stronger forcing. By Sunday afternoon,
this initial wave is expected to shift eastward, leading to a brief
decrease in PoP.

This lull in activity will be short-lived. The primary upper-level
trough will promote the development of a second wave over western
Kansas, which is progged to track rapidly toward the Commonwealth.
Increasing PoP chances are forecast beginning Sunday evening and
continuing through the remainder of the period. Consistent with
previous forecast packages, model guidance continues to show a north-
south wobble with this system; these latitudinal shifts remain
critical in determining the position of the rain-snow line. The
forecast area stays positioned near the critical thermal threshold
where precipitation type is highly sensitive. Consequently, a wintry
mix appears likely with the arrival of this system Sunday night.
Deterministic forecast soundings for areas north of the Mountain
Parkway, where the best chances for a wintry mix exist, show a
pronounced warm nose. This should result in melting and predominant
rainfall at the onset. However, as surface temperatures fall to
freezing or below during the early overnight hours, a transition to
a rain-snow mix is anticipated. By Monday morning, temperatures are
forecast to rise above freezing, transitioning all wintry
precipitation back to rain. Rainfall is expected to continue through
the end of the period, though model confidence degrades
substantially after 00Z Tuesday as deterministic solutions begin to
diverge. While the GFS dries the region out behind the departing
system on Tuesday, the ECMWF maintains PoP chances through the end
of the period. Given this uncertainty, the NBM remains the preferred
solution, keeping PoP in the forecast through the end of the period.

The period will be highlighted by an initial surface high bringing
dry and mild conditions through Saturday. A transition to a more
active pattern occurs Saturday night as a series of disturbances
impact the region. While temperatures start above average,
fluctuations in synoptic and mesoscale flow will lead to high
variability through the early part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 232 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026

VFR conditions with WSW winds gusting 15-25 kts were present at
the start of the period.

Ceilings in the 5-10K ft AGL range are forecast to develop this
evening. This should be accompanied by rain at times, mainly near
and south of the Mountain Parkway. The precipitation will lead to
deteriorating conditions, especially the further south you go. Near
and south of the Mountain Parkway a drop to low end MVFR or IFR
conditions is forecast overnight and lasting into Thursday.
However, confidence in the timing of the restrictions and their
northern extent is not very high.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...HAL