Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

207
FXUS63 KJKL 312058
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
358 PM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some light snow accumulations are possible tonight into New
  Years Day (Thursday) morning, with the best chances along and
  northeast of a line from Flemingsburg to West Liberty to
  Prestonsburg to Elkhorn City.

- A passing storm system to our south will bring a chance of
  mainly rain to portions of eastern Kentucky Friday into
  Saturday.

- Temperatures will average a bit below normal through this
  weekend and then trend above normal next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 240 PM EST WED DEC 31 2025

Cloud cover continues to work into the area from the northwest, as
Eastern Kentucky gets clipped with a passing cold front, from a
system moving into New England, this evening. This cold front will
sag south and east out of the Ohio Valley later this evening leading
to light snow showers mainly along and northeast of a line from
Flemingsburg to West Liberty to Prestonsburg to Elkhorn City.
Recent model guidance has trended lighter in accumulating snows,
with eastern counties from Fleming to Pike seeing a couple of
tenths through Thursday morning, with heaviest snows around a half
an inch. An overall dry airmass will limit available moisture
with this system, and although temperatures at onset of
precipitation may be above freezing, precip type will mainly be
snow, given the dry air in place. Overnight temperatures will
hover around 30 degrees, Bluegrass counties in the upper 20s. By
the pre-dawn hours tomorrow, winds begin to veer from
southwesterly to northwesterly behind the front. Any showers
should taper off fairly quickly, as model soundings show
subsidence and an absence of lift in the area. Temperatures will
be hovering around freezing at this time.

Thursday, should be fairly quiet with high temperatures ranging
from the upper 30s across the north to upper 40s across the southern
parts of the CWA. Skies will likely feature a mix of sun and clouds
with light winds. Breif clearing may occur after sunset before
clouds begin to increase overnight toward Friday. Overnight lows
will generally range from the mid to upper 20s across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 358 PM EST WED DEC 31 2025

A deep upper level low will start out over Hudson Bay on Friday,
with elongated cyclonic flow extending southeast through the
northeastern portion of the CONUS. Ridging will be aligned over
the West. A short wave will move over the Rockies and continue to
deepen as it drops southeast across the southern Plains and lower
Mississippi Valley Friday night. A reflective surface low will
track into the Deep South by Saturday, with precipitation
spreading northward through the Tennessee Valley.

Models have waffled in previous days in regards to the northern
extent of the moisture field, particularly the ECMWF. 12z blends
are further north with measurable PoPs once again. Consequently,
the temperatures have also increased with the expansion of the
moisture, which makes sense, given the associated warm air
advection. As such, still believe that this will mainly be just
plain rain. At the same time, model time height forecasts reveal
very little moisture below 700 mb on the northern periphery of the
precipitation shield, so it will most likely be a tighter cutoff
to the measurable precipitation than currently reflected in the
forecast.

Drier weather returns Saturday night and continues to generally
hold on through Tuesday, as only weak short waves pass by to our
north in progressive flow. The next system brings a return of rain
chances by Tuesday night and Wednesday. Agreement on the timing
is not good this far out, but confidence continues to increase on
another surge of above normal temperatures next week, as 500 mb
heights generally rise, and more persistent low level return flow
ensues. Highs will generally be in the 50s each day after Sunday.
Lows will moderate from the 20s on Monday, to the 40s by
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST WED DEC 31 2025

Conditions are currently VFR, however a passing system will bring
lowering cigs into MVFR and lower along with chances of light
snow, especially at KSYM and KSJS. Winds will be fairly breezy
through portions of this afternoon and evening, with west winds
gusting near 20 kts at times. Winds will become more northwesterly
post- frontal heading into the pre-dawn hours Thursday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...GINNICK/CMC