Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

456
FXUS63 KJKL 260148
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
848 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Impacts from a major winter storm likely linger into tonight.

- Bitter cold weather returns tonight and lasts through next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 848 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026

Colder air is making its way southeastward back into the forecast
area presently. There is still an inversion in place above the
shallow invading colder air, and that could still support some
non-snow precip in southeast KY this evening even as temperatures
drop below freezing (thinking mainly freezing drizzle or very
light freezing rain). The moisture bearing layer should eventually
be cold enough for all snow where precip lingers. Aside from
flurries or very light snow, that precip should gradually shrink
southeastward with time, ending meaninful accumulation. Would
consider shaving the warning southeastward as this happens.
However, neighboring offices prefer to keep it going, and as a
result, will need to do the same here.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 228 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026

As of 19Z (2 PM EST), A slug of moisture continues to work its way
up from Eastern Mississippi, Eastern Alabama, up through Central
Tennessee and into Kentucky. These are showers preceding a cold
frontal passage from the low pressure that caused the wintry weather
the last day or so. At current, much of Eastern Kentucky has seen
upwards of 1.25 inches to 2.40 inches of liquid with this storm. It
has fallen in the form of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain since
late yesterday evening. While most of the area remains around 32-33
degrees, many areas are currently experiencing rain. The winter storm
will gradually come to an end tonight but will bring additional
minor accumulations of snow, sleet, and freezing rain, as colder air
moves back into the area with the cold frontal passage later this
afternoon. Additional snow and sleet accumulations up to one inch
and ice accumulations around one tenth of an inch could remain in
the northern most area. Otherwise, a light glaze of ice could still
occur elsewhere.

Heading into this evening, temperatures will drop rapidly, and may
lead to instances of flash-freezing of road surfaces. Lows
temperatures will drop into the single digits in the west, to low
teens in far Eastern Kentucky. Wind chills as low as 5 below zero
are possible, and a Cold Weather Advisory has been expanded as far
east to include Morgan, Magoffin, down to Knott and Letcher,
including all areas west.

Monday, cold air will continue to remain entrenched across the
region, with much of the area in the teens to low 20s through the
day. Low end POPs were introduced to the forecast Sunday night
through early afternoon Monday, as lingering cold air advection snow
showers with possible lake enhancement was deemed possible. Models
showed decent moisture within the dendritic growth zone (DGZ) to
support this idea of thinking. Nevertheless, these snow showers
would only result in a skiff to a tenth of snow or flurries. Monday
night, winds become light and shift to  a west/southwesterly
direction. With skies partly clearing out Monday night, and weak
warm air advection, valley locations could decouple with an
inversion setting up. Aside for these normal ridge-valley edits
applied under these types of conditions, neighboring offices
including JKL, decided to use the 50th percentile of the NBM as a
starting point (to start slightly cooler). As such,  lows will
generally range from near zero, to 5 below zero. Some colder spots
as low as 8 below zero will be possible. Wind chills as cold as 20
below zero will be possible heading into Tuesday morning. As such an
Excessive Cold Watch remains in effect for the entire area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 201 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026

Active northwesterly cyclonic flow continues for the extended period
as a deep upper low pinwheels in place over the northeastern North
American continent. The passing disturbances will manifest at the
surface as passing clipper systems which will constantly reinforce
the arctic air mass in place across eastern Kentucky.

Weak warm advection is expected Tuesday ahead of a clipper system
that grazes the area to the north, with highs recovering into the
20s to lower 30s. Renewed flurries and light snow chances are
expected within the favored cold advection upslope region in the
Big Sandy basin, particularly Tuesday evening.

Another stronger clipper system will likely bring more widespread
light snow and thus minor snow accumulations Wednesday evening into
the overnight, particularly from Pike County extending west and
northwest along the I-64 and Mountain Parkway corridors. NBM
probabilities for measurable snow in this corridor range from 45 to
70 percent and probabilities for 1 inch or more snow accumulation
range from around 20 to 40 percent, highest in eastern Pike
County.

An additional clipper system will likely bring another round of
flurries and light snow showers later Friday into Saturday.

Each clipper system will bring a refresh of the arctic air mass in
place, resulting in a long spell of continued sub-freezing
temperatures. Model trends suggest that temperatures bottom out
Friday morning, with another round of cold weather headlines likely
late week into the weekend, before a potential gradual moderating
trend into the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 727 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026

Areas of precip continued at times at the start of the period,
mostly in the form of snow, and a mix of IFR and MVFR conditions
(due to ceilings and/or visibility) were present. It is possible
that some freezing drizzle will persist into the night for a
while, but anything remaining will go entirely to snow overnight
and be on an overall decline with time. Any snow which persists
into the day Monday will become more showery in nature as it
tapers to flurries. An improvement to all MVFR conditions is
expected either during the night or Monday morning. However, there
is low confidence in the timing. Most of the forecast area can
look for an improvement to VFR on Monday afternoon as ceilings
break up.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EST Monday
for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-106-108-109-
111>118.

Extreme Cold Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning
for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.


&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...HAL