Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

255
FXUS63 KJKL 281749
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
149 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A more active weather pattern is now upon us, with multiple
  chances for widespread showers and storms through Wednesday.

- Additional thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon and
  through tonight - as well as on Wednesday. These will bring
  some more highly beneficial rainfall to the region.

- Once the frontal boundary finally clears the area late this
  week, cooler than normal temperatures are favored along with a
  chance for frost over the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 149 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026

No major changes made to the forecast grids but incorporated the
latest surface observations. Also, updated the PoP/Sky grids in
accordance to the latest CAM guidance. Grids have been saved and
sent.

UPDATE Issued at 745 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026

The forecast is on track as the rain continues to dissipate and
move out of the area this morning. No significant changes were
made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest
obs and trends for the T/Td grids. These minor adjustments have
been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of
the SAFs and zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 605 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026

09Z sfc analysis shows a cold front on the western fringes of
Kentucky that helped to push a QLCS system through the JKL CWA
during the late night and early morning hours. Now, the
stratiform rain and limited lightning remain which will gradually
dissipate this morning after leaving behind a good and needed
soaking for the area. Currently, temperatures (and dewpoints) have
fallen into the upper 50s and lower 60s amid the rain. Meanwhile,
winds are generally from the south at 5 to 10 mph, though from
the northwest at up to 30 mph in the immediate wake of the leading
thunderstorms exiting the far southeast.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, continue to be
in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict the lead wave of broad troughing to our
north having spread into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this past
night. This puts fast and slightly southwest mid-level flow
through the region - north of impressive ridging through central
Mexico. This flow stretches back to the West Coast and will serve
as a glide-path for shortwaves and impulses to traverse Kentucky
through Wednesday. By tonight, though, the next wave in the larger
5h troughing will be consolidating and digging southeast from the
Upper Midwest. This pushes height falls and another batch of
energy into this part of the state by Wednesday afternoon. Given
the still good general agreement among the models, the NBM was
used as the starting point for the grids. The main adjustments
made to this initialization were to incorporate more high
resolution convective details for PoPs and thunder chances through
Wednesday evening.

Sensible weather features the much needed rain slowly dissipating
this morning likely leaving behind some mesoscale boundaries that
could become active - conditionally - this afternoon with
convection redeveloping in addition to that washed out cold front
briefly sinking southeast through the area. The main question is
whether enough instability can develop amid leftover debris clouds
from the post storm stratiform rains this morning. The HRRR is
not too favorable but still gives indication that somewhere in
eastern Kentucky redevelopment is probable. Accordingly, have
ensured a small chance for showers and storms through the area
this afternoon and into the evening with a severe potential from
these mainly mainly in the form of damaging winds or large hail
with best chances in the southwest parts of the area. The
boundary looks to surge back north as a warm front tonight with
additional showers and storms anticipated as it precedes a quick
developing sfc low coming out of the Southern Plains and lifting
through Kentucky by Wednesday morning. This brings the better shot
at more widespread showers and storms before departing to the
east my midday. Some convection from this may linger through the
area that afternoon. Cooler temperatures will be the rule today
compared to Monday with readings another notch lower on Wednesday
in the wake of that fast moving sfc low.

The changes to the NBM starting point mainly consisted of
including more details into the PoPs from the generally drier
CAMs this afternoon through Wednesday. Again did not see the need
to adjust dewpoints and temperatures much from the NBM through
the short term period considering the higher dewpoints and
generally wetter air mass.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026

The main change to the start of the long term forecast was to add
more terrain distinction to nighttime temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday night with a small to moderate ridge to valley
temperature difference anticipated. Otherwise, the remainder of
the forecast and details remain on track, including the frost
potential for Saturday night.

The previous long term discussion follows:

As the long term period opens on Wednesday, a shortwave rotating
along the base of the trough over the central CONUS will nudge a
deepening surface low to the northeast into the Ohio River region.
This will finally force the previously stalled cold front through
our area on Wednesday afternoon, triggering another round of
showers and thunderstorms. The environment preceding this cold
front will heavily depend on the evolution of Tuesdays convection;
however, current model consensus suggests that very moist low
levels will maintain cloud cover ahead of the cold front on
Wednesday. As a result, full destabilization appears unlikely at
this time. However, eastern Kentucky will be located beneath an
upper level jet streak, providing ample shear (EBWD of 35-45 kts)
for convective organization in the event that instability is high
enough for robust updraft development. Given this setup, the Storm
Prediction Center has introduced a Day 3 Marginal Risk (Level
1/5) for far eastern Kentucky, where the frontal passage is most
likely to coincide with peak diurnal instability. Machine learning
guidance remains rather unenthused about this severe threat, and
given questions regarding destabilization, this seems appropriate.
Regardless, Wednesday looks to bring another round of measurable
rain to much of the area; LREF guidance indicates at least a
quarter-inch of rain is likely in our easternmost counties (70-80%
chance), and this is without factoring in convection-allowing
models. This additional round of rainfall should help to put a
dent in our drought conditions before lingering showers exit the
forecast area overnight.

Following Wednesdays frontal passage, dry conditions should
prevail through Thursday. However, model guidance begins to
diverge by Friday afternoon into Saturday. The GFS shows a wave
rotating into our area, which would trigger widespread
precipitation; in contrast, the ECMWF is less aggressive with this
energy, keeping PoPs low for eastern Kentucky. To account for
this spread, the NBM has attempted to provide a middle ground of
low PoPs across the area on Friday into Saturday. However, actual
rain chances depend on the evolution of the upper air pattern,
which remains highly uncertain this far out. Regardless, more
tranquil weather is expected to return Sunday and persist
throughout the remainder of the period.

Beyond precipitation, Wednesdays frontal passage will also usher
in unseasonably cool weather for the remainder of the forecast
period. This change could prove problematic for any sensitive
vegetation, as this pattern supports several opportunities for
frost. The first period of concern will be on Thursday night, when
the combination of clear skies, light winds, and temperatures
falling into the 30s in sheltered hollows could lead to isolated
frost formation. Another low confidence frost threat exists on
Friday night; however, this remains highly dependent on the
progression of the aforementioned wave. In a more aggressive
solution, clouds cover and moisture would mitigate frost risk,
while a less aggressive solution would favor clearer and drier
weather that would once again enable frost formation in sheltered
hollows. Regardless, the highest chance for frost formation will
occur on Saturday night into Sunday morning. As high pressure
builds, clear skies and calm winds should allow temperatures to
plummet into the 30s, with decoupled valleys seeing the coolest
temperatures. Consequently, agricultural interests are advised to
remain weather aware throughout the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026

A combination of MVFR and VFR conditions are prevailing across all
TAF sites this afternoon. Lingering stratus clouds are keeping
these conditions across the area; however, a slow improvement to
VFR is anticipated over the next few hours. Breezy southwest to
west winds are forecast to pick up across the area this afternoon
and persist through sunset. Also, increasing shower and storm
chances will exist; especially after 04Z and persist through the
rest of the forecast period. Any sites that are VFR at the onset
of the showers and storms will fall into categorical MVFR to IFR
and largely remain there until the end of the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VORST
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...FAGAN/GEERTSON/GREIF
AVIATION...VORST