Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

348
FXUS63 KJKL 301950
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
350 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms will return to areas mainly south of the Mtn
  Parkway for Sunday evening through Monday afternoon.

- Temperatures will average within a few degrees of normal over
  the next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 327 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026

At 18Z mid and high level clouds were seen traversing the area from
northwest to southeast. Previously a cold front was moving south
through Eastern Kentucky and has now stalled near the Tennessee
border. Drier air continues to work in the region out of the
northeast this afternoon and evening as the area is on the eastern
side of a 500-mb omega block ridge. Currently, dew points behind the
cold front (north of Somerset and London) are in the mid to upper
50s. Ahead of the stalled front (south of Somerset and London) the
dew points remain elevated in the upper 60s to low 70s. With
drier air moving in, dew points are expected to drop into the low
to mid 40s this evening. With partial clearing, and light winds,
temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 40s to low 50s
in the north, and mid to upper 50s across the south. Coldest
areas will be the sheltered eastern valleys and hollows of the
Licking and Big Sandy. Some valleys could develop patchy fog later
this evening and overnight with enough clearing.

Sunday, as the area of high pressure breaks down some, moisture is
able to surge back north into Eastern Kentucky. Early in the
afternoon, winds both aloft and at the surface become southwesterly
for a few hours. Dew points in the 60s will work back into southern
potions of the CWA Sunday afternoon and early evening. CAPE of of
1000-1500 J/kg may allow for a few thunderstorms to occur along with
showers, mainly south of the Hal Rogers/KY Highway 80 corridor.
The WPC has introduced a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of Excessive
Rainfall across the counties bordering Tennessee. Temperatures in
the upper 70s to mid 80s are expected, with a north to south
gradient.

Showers and thunderstorms may continue into Sunday evening and
overnight and gradually spread north as the stationary front
mentioned earlier creeps back north into the area. Shower chances
should generally remain south of the Mountain Parkway.
Temperatures overnight will range from the upper 50s to low 60s to
close out the month of May.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 350 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026

The long-term period opens Monday morning with the 30/12z model suite
in good agreement. Upper level ridging will extend northward from
Texas to toward Minnesota where a col separates it from an ~585
dam high centered near/over Churchill, Manitoba. On the east side
of the ridge, troughing extends from an ~540 dam low east of
Labrador southwestward into the Mid-Atlantic and Central
Appalachians. Meanwhile, on the western side of the ridge, an
~570 dam low is spinning over northwestern Montana. At the
surface, a wavering frontal boundary will extend from a weak
~1013 mb surface low off Cape Cod southwest to along the
Kentucky-Tennessee border and then northwest to a triple point
low north of Kansas City, Missouri. Cool Canadian high pressure
lies cradled north of the stalled front and is centered well to
our north over the Hudson Bay.

The eastern trough will remain positively tilted as it digs southward
through mid-week and eventually pinches off into a closed low
over the Carolinas by around Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, the
upstream 500 hPa ridge will merge with the Canadian high, briefly
taking on an omega-like appearance, as it deamplifies. As a
result, the wavering frontal boundary will initially linger over
the Cumberland River basin for the first part of the day on Monday
before making a decisive push well south of the area by Tuesday
and Wednesday. In its wake, surface high pressure will drop south
from the Hudson Bay to over the Great Lakes by 12Z Wednesday and
over the Central Appalachians on Thursday. Meanwhile, the upper
low over the northern Rockies will gradually press in from the
west and open up as the upper level ridge continues to subside
late week. While the specific details become less certain due to
increasing model disparity, it generally appears that a surface
low with this trough will pass from Central to Eastern Canada
while its trailing cold front sags southward toward the Ohio
Valley by the week`s end, perhaps with the aid of a reinforcing
Pacific shortwave trough trailing behind the remnants of the
original parent low.

Aside from the threat of some rain to start the week on Monday and
again on Saturday, the bulk of the week is shaping up to be fair and
mild. In sensible terms, look for the threat of showers (20 to 50
percent chance) and possibly a weak thunderstorm to diminish from
north to south during the afternoon on Monday -- rain chances
will primarily be confined to near and south of the Mountain
Parkway corridor. Fair, dry, and seasonally mild days and cool,
clear nights with fog in the favored valley locales follow from
Monday night through Friday. Highs will range from the mid 70s to
low 80s through Wednesday, then warming into the lower and middle
80s for Thursday and Friday. Nighttime lows range from the mid 40s
to mid 50s beginning Monday night and should remain at similar
levels through Wednesday night before also moderating into the 50s
to near 60F. Overall, it should be a great week for gardening,
mowing the lawn, or making hay! Rain chances then return Friday
night and Saturday with temperatures remaining at similar levels
(highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows not far from 60F).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites through the TAF
period. A frontal boundary continues to push south this afternoon
into Tennessee. This will continue to allow for clouds to thin out
heading into the evening. Northeasterly winds less than 10 kts
continue this afternoon before becoming light and variable
overnight. High pressure works into the region from the
northwest.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...GINNICK