Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

286
FXUS63 KJKL 220845
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
445 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms today into this evening will bring the
  possibility of heavy rainfall and strong to damaging wind gusts.
  Training thunderstorms could lead to localized flooding.

- Lower humidity and dry weather arrives by late Tuesday and lasts
  through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026

08Z sfc analysis shows a potent area of low pressure centered
over central Indiana with a warm front strung out northeast of
Kentucky. This system continues to pump warm and moist air into
the region ahead of its cold front that is slowly approaching from
the west. The initial round of thunderstorms associated with this
system has mostly died out over eastern Kentucky, but some
trailing storm cells look to soak parts of the area into dawn.
Otherwise, under mostly cloudy skies north and mostly clear
conditions south, temperatures currently vary from the mid to
upper 60s to the north - with the rain - to the low and mid 70s
in the rain-free south. Meanwhile, amid light southerly winds -
away from any storms, dewpoints are generally in the mid to upper
60s.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in good
agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast.
They all depict an amplifying 5h shortwave passing through the
region today. This will bring with it fairly fast mid level flow
switching from southwest to northwest in direction as it passes
along with a fair amount of energy impulses passing over eastern
Kentucky amid modest height falls. Later tonight, this wave and
its attendant mid level energy will have moved off to the east
- mostly - allowing heights to rebound and some subsidence out
ahead and downstream of strong Desert Southwest ridging as it
starts to expand northeastward. Given the decent model agreement,
the NBM was used as the starting point for the forecast grids with
little adjustment outside of the QPF from WPC for the next 24
hours and PoP enhancement from the CAMs consensus through tonight.

Sensible weather will feature a low confidence forecast for
specifics but potentially locally high impact depending on if a
mesoscale boundary is able to set up over the JKl CWA and become a
focus for additional thunderstorm development leading to training
cells and locally excessive rainfall through the bulk of the
evening. Much of eastern Kentucky saw swaths of excessive rains
last week and remains primed for high water and runoff issues
should such training develop. PWS over the area are just high
enough to be a concern even without the potential for a boundary
to focus the convection. This boundary looks to set up roughly
east to west through the heart of the JKL CWA in the wake and as
part of the remnants of the MCS from last evening and early this
morning. Accordingly, out of an abundance of caution, a Flood
Watch has been issued for most of this part of the state through
11 pm this evening. Run to run model guidance has not been
consistent enough to raise the confidence level of this scenario,
but the potential seems enough to warrant extra highlighting and
caution via the Flood Watch. In addition to the flooding concerns
that training storms pose, some of the convection could become
quite strong with damaging wind gusts the main threat into the
evening hours, as well. Look for the main system`s cold front to
press south later this evening and overnight bringing an end to
the storm threats and actually ushering in some drier and more
comfortable air for Tuesday.

The main changes to the NBM starting point consisted of going with
the higher QPF from WPC today and tonight along with higher PoPs
per the CAMs. The temps and dewpoints where not adjusted much
considering the fairly high moisture content around the area
through Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026

High pressure will still be well in control for Tuesday night,
continuing through Wednesday night. While the high pressure system
will keep conditions dry during this time, the position of the high
will start to shift eastward, placing much of KY in the return flow
side with increased warm southerly winds. Highs Wednesday will rise
back into the low to mid 80s, with increased humidity as well.

Unfortunately, as the high pressure continues to shift eastward,
this opens up the region for more weather makers. The first will
start to impact eastern KY on Thursday, a strong upper level low
moves into the Upper Great Lakes Region and southern Ontario. Upper
level troughing will not be that strong, but a fairly potent low
pressure system will still be present across the Great Lakes Region
by 18Z on Thursday. With continued and increasing SW flow into the
state at the surface, a warm front will develop to our north during
the day Thursday. This will put much of KY in the warm and unstable
sector, introducing the potential for scattered showers and
thunderstorms throughout the day ahead of the associated cold
front.

The cold front itself will significantly slow its forward movement
heading into Thursday as the forcing low pressure system continues
to quickly shift eastward towards SE Canada and New England, and
begins to elongate the boundary. So rather than the cold front
actually passing through Kentucky on Friday, it will stall a bit,
and continue the shower and thunderstorm potential for much of the
state. Expect that generally precip chances will decline overnight
with the loss of daytime mixing/instability, and increase again
during the daytime hours both Thursday and Friday...however the
current forecast does still carry some isolated to scattered chances
both nights.

Things get a little interesting Friday night into Saturday as the
system starts to pivot and lift back north as a warm front across
much of the Central Mississippi Valley region, and stalls across
eastern Kentucky. The result will be a line of showers and
thunderstorms along the boundary from Friday night and through the
day Saturday. As of now the boundary remains in place across
Kentucky even into Sunday, continuing the rain and thunderstorm
chances. However, do want to note that the models do start to
diverge quite a bit heading into the weekend, especially for Sunday,
so expect that this forecast will still shift and change quite a bit
as we get closer in time.

Without a frontal boundary actually passing through the state, the
temperatures should not show any major changes, with highs generally
in the low to mid 80s and decent clouds and humidity to accompany
the warmer temperatures and rain chances for the second half of the
work-week. Tuesday night lows might be the coolest, in the 50s, with
the high passing nearby (strong subsidence and mostly clear skies)
and winds still generally northerly. After that point, expect
generally consistent lows in the 60s, which is fairly normal for
this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026

Steadier showers and thunderstorms are pushing through the
northern TAF sites ATTM. Expect these to fade out as they spread
south becoming more scattered and probably never fully clearing
out into the daylight hours of morning. Look for the convective
cells to start to renew by midday crossing and lingering over
much of eastern Kentucky throughout the day. There is still a
good amount of uncertainty concerning the evolution of the
convection today, though. As a result, a generalized forecast for
IFR conditions, at times during the precip, was continued in the
TAFs. Winds for much of today will be southwest at 5 to 10 kts
with gusts to near 20 kts - but erratic with higher top speeds
near any thunderstorms.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-
069-080-085>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF