Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

305
FXUS63 KJKL 230020 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
820 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms continue to be around through the
  evening and into the early overnight. This brings the continued
  potential of heavy rainfall and strong to damaging wind gusts.
  Training thunderstorms could also lead to flash flooding.

- Lower humidity and dry weather arrive by late Tuesday and last
  through Wednesday.

- Unsettled weather then returns to end the week and into the
  weekend with rounds of showers and storms possibly producing
  heavy rain and a flood threat.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 740 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows a slow moving cold front working south
through eastern Kentucky. This is now leading to some training
showers and storms - possibly along an established mesoscale
boundary. This has prompted flood advisories and a strong
potential for flash flood warnings. North of the front the
activity is more settled so they were able to be dropped from the
Flash Flood watch. Currently, that watch may need to be extended
deeper into the night given radar trends and some of the CAMs
depictions well past midnight - especially in the far southeast.
Otherwise, temperatures are running in the low to mid 70s for most
of the area. Meanwhile, amid northwest winds of 5 to 10 mph north
of the front, and southerly winds to the south, dewpoints are
quite elevated in the upper 60s north to the lower 70s south -
providing fuel for the torrential rain producing convection. Have
updated the forecast mainly to adjust the PoPs through the night
per the current radar and CAMs along with adding in the latest obs
and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These changes have been sent
to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO,
SAFs, and zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 437 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026

A cold front is on our doorstep over central KY late this
afternoon. Restrained heating around clouds today is resulting in
scattered showers/thunderstorms along/ahead of the front. A
shortwave trough aloft is evident near West Tennessee. As it
continues moving eastward, convection is expected to increase over
hour area tonight. Instability will be more limited as daytime
heat wanes, and the severe wx threat, while not gone, looks to be
lessening. However, the atmosphere is very moist with PWs near 2",
and thunderstorms will be efficient rainers. That being the case,
the Flood Watch remains in effect. Evening shift will monitor the
evolution, and could extend the watch longer if needed.

Noticeably drier air will be arriving behind the front overnight
and Tuesday. Once the last of any lingering precip ends Tuesday,
dry weather will carry through Tuesday night. With good radiating
conditions in the new air mass as high pressure moves overhead
Tuesday night, lows by dawn Wednesday should be in the 50s for
almost all of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026

The period begins with broad troughing from parts of the Central to
eastern Conus and an upper level ridge centered near the
TX/NM/Mexico border area and extending across the Four Corners to
parts of the Great Basin and interior northwest. Also at that point,
an upper level low is progged to be centered near the Ontario/
Manitoba/ MN border area with shortwave rotating around this upper
low near the Great Lakes with another shortwave trough extending to
the Central Plains. Further upstream an upper low is expected to be
in the Gulf of Alaska vicinity with an upper trough south southeast
to just west of the Pacific northwest. Shortwaves moving through
this trough should be working around the ridging extending into the
western Conus and across sections of the Pacific northwest and
western Canada. At the surface, high pressure is expected to be
centered over southern OH/the OH Valley region to begin the period
with a sfc low in the upper MS Valley nearing the western Great
Lakes with its frontal zone trailing into parts of the Central
Plains to sections of the Rockies. As the period begins, a dry
airmass for this time of year is expected to be in place, in the 0.5
to 0.8 inch range or roughly the 2nd to 9th percentile per the 12Z
HREF mean.

Wednesday through Thursday night, the initial broad troughing pattern
evolves to more of a westerly/zonal flow pattern east of the crest
of the Rockies across the central Conus to the mid Atlantic sates
with broad upper level ridging becoming centered in the Southern
Plains vicinity, with another upper level ridge centered between the
Bahamas and Bermuda. Further north, the upper low should weaken to
an open wave as it moves across the northern Great Lakes and
sections of Ontario into Quebec and potentially becoming an open
wave. Meanwhile, a couple of weather shortwave troughs may cross the
area Wed to Thu before a shortwave that initially is moving around
the ridging extending across the western Conus moves into the
northern and central Plains/Central Conus Wed and Wed night and then
into the mid MS Valley/Lower OH Valley by late Thu night. Models
begin to vary at that point in timing and the general consensus is
for another shortwave further upstream in the Central Conus at that
time. At the surface, high pressure will shift east of the area for
Wed and Wed night with a developing warm front crossing the area Wed
night into early Thursday as the sfc low gradually moves across the
Great Lakes and and eventually into Ontario. The trailing cold front
should advance to the eastern Great Lakes to lower OH and mid MS
Valley to portions of the Plains by late Thu night. Behind the warm
front, moisture will gradually increase with PW per the 00Z LREF mean
reaching the 70th to 75th percentile by around dawn on Friday or the
1.4 to 1.6 inch range. During that time, sfc dewpoints should
generally reach the mid to upper 60s by Thursday night.

Following below normal temperatures on Wed and a moderate magnitude
ridge/valley split for Wed night , temperatures begin to moderate
back to near normals for Thu. As moisture increases and the
shortwave and cold front begin to near late Thu into Thu night, the
threat for showers and thunderstorms may return, though chances
should peak to begin the weekend.

Friday to Saturday night, a series of shortwaves crossing the OH
Valley and portions of the Appalachians is the general consensus of
guidance for Friday into early Saturday. At the same time, the upper
level ridge initially extending across portions of the Rockies will
build into the Plains/Central Conus late Fri into Saturday
downstream of an upper low that reaches the Northwest Conus and an
upper trough that moves into the western Conus. The axis of the
upper level ridge should near the MS Valley and possibly western
Great Lakes by late Saturday night. Northwest flow aloft should
remain after the shortwaves pass to the east. At the same time, the
frontal zone should become stalled out over the OH Valley/eastern KY
area to end the week and continue into the weekend. PW should climb
even more during that time, though without a strong connection or
feed from the Gulf, 00Z LREF PW values peaking roughly in the 85th
to 95th percentile range to end the week of the 1.5 to 1.75 inch
range. This pattern appears favorable for rounds of storms from time
to time or MCS type activity. Some stronger convection could occur
if sufficient instability were be build Friday or Saturday, though the
potential repeated rounds of showers and storms may result in
locally heavy rain and an isolated flood threat at some point,
possibly as early as Friday or Friday night. WPC has included
eastern KY and points west to near the Ozarks in a marginal
Excessive Rainfall Outlook for Day 5.

Sunday to Monday, a period of height rises with the upper level
ridge axis approaching or nearing eastern KY is the general
consensus of guidance to begin next week. Further west, the axis of
the upper level trough moves gradually east over sections of the
northern Rockies to southwest Conus. A preceding sfc low should
travel across western sections of Canada generally north of the
US/Canadian border with the trailing cold front moving into sections
of the Central Conus and the boundary initially stalled over the OH
Valley vicinity lifting northeast as a warm front late in the
period. Pending the positioning of the upper level ridge axis and
considering the gradual height rises, capping should lead to a min
in convective coverage or potentially keep the region entirely
capped by Monday. Warming temperatures are also possible and if the
ridge is centered over the area on Monday temperatures may reach
around 90 or the low 90s in many areas. A scenario more like the
recent ECMWF runs would be slower moving the front northeast as warm
front with potentially some convection on Monday and temperatures
lower than the current forecast for Max T on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026

The period starts with largely VFR conditions across the forecast
area. However, there are showers/thunderstorms starting to train
through the southern half of the CWA and these are bringing
localized IFR or worse conditions. That should continue to be the
case through the evening and into the early overnight. This
increase in precip is expected on account of an upper level
disturbance approaching from the west southwest. This would bring
generalized reductions to MVFR, with IFR or worse at times in the
heavier rain. The precipitation does taper off from northwest to
southeast overnight and early Tuesday, but IFR or MVFR conditions
will probably linger before dry air starts to work in from the
northwest. VFR conditions return later Tuesday. Winds will be
light and variable for much of the night - away from any storms -
then pick up from the northwest at 5 to 10 kts by midday, Tuesday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for KYZ058>060-068-069-
080-085>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...HAL/GREIF