Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

966
FXUS63 KJKL 041034
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
534 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Repeated rounds of heavy rain through tonight could cause
  localized high water or flooding, north of the Mountain Parkway
  (particularly in/around Fleming County).

- A few strong to severe storms capable of large hail and damaging
  winds are possible late this afternoon and evening, mainly
  north of the Mountain Parkway.

- Temperatures will soar into the upper 70s to lower 80s on
  Friday and Saturday, threatening daily record highs.

- A strong cold front will bring widespread showers and
  thunderstorms on Saturday, some of which could be strong to
  severe.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1140 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids
and a nudging south of the PoPs per radar movement. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 635 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows a well defined warm front now just north of
the Ohio River. This has placed eastern Kentucky in this system`s
warm sector even as the showers remain along and north of the
boundary. Currently, temperatures are running in the mid to upper
50s north to the lower 60s in the south. Meanwhile, amid south to
southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph with some higher gusts, dewpoints
are generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Have updated the
forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the
T/Td/Sky grids as well as including the latest CAMs guidance for
PoPs as the front starts to settle back south starting later this
evening. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and
web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 345 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026

The warm front that was pushing north across the state this morning
has stalled. As of 2000Z/3 PM EST this stationary front remains
over the Ohio River Valley, along the boarder of Ohio and
Kentucky. Showers continue to move along this boundary heading
into this evening. This front is expected to slowly lift north
through the rest of this afternoon, with shower activity ending
for a period of time, around 00Z/7 pm EST. Currently, a
temperatures gradient has set up across Eastern Kentucky with mid
to upper 50s across northern parts of the area, where showers and
cloud cover have persisted through the day, with low to mid 60s
across the south. Winds should begin to weaken over the next
several hours. They will also remain southerly through the short
term period. This will continue to usher in warmer moist air into
the region.

Tonight, the stationary front to our north will begin to sag south
again, mainly after 06Z/1 AS EST. This will allow for showers and
maybe even a thunderstorm, mainly north of I-64 in the pre-dawn
hours of Wednesday morning. Temperatures tonight generally remain in
the mid 50s.

Wednesday, chances of showers and isolated to scattered
thunderstorms sag south with the frontal boundary. As an area of low
pressure moves out of the Central Plains and into the Ozarks, the
frontal boundary will again stall over the area before moving back
north in the afternoon hours. A few strong thunderstorms are
possible mainly late Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday evening in
locations north of the Mountain Parkway. Hail and or strong to
damaging winds are possible. The Storm Prediction Centers Outlook
has a Marginal Risk (1/5) clipping the northern parts of Fleming
County, with the hail threat being the contributing factor. The same
area is under a Marginal Risk (1/4) for Excessive Rainfall, as a lot
of these showers and storms have traveled over the same areas over
the last 24 hours and are expected to over the next 48 hours. The
greater flood risk remains north of the forecast area, where
surrounding offices have issued Flood Watches. A gradient in
precipitation is likely, with Fleming County most likely to see
rainfall around or exceeding 1 inch by Thursday morning.
Temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 60s to mid 70s,
north to south across Eastern Kentucky. Low pressure will continue
to lift into the Ohio Valley. As it does, the area will find itself
firmly in the warm sector, behind the warm front and ahead of the
systems approaching cold front. Temperatures at night will remain
elevated, cooling into the upper 50s. Isolated shower chances (15-
24%) remain south of the Mountain Parkway, with scattered shower
chances remaining along and north of the Mountain Parkway
(25-54%).

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 532 AM EST WED MAR 4 2026

The forecast period begins with the region positioned between two
primary synoptic features. To the north, a stationary front is
propped across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This
boundary will focus shower and thunderstorm development across the
northern Ohio Valley, including the northern portions of the CWA.
Conversely, the southern half of the CWA will reside within the warm
sector, characterized by southerly flow around an Atlantic surface
high. Diurnal heating within this air mass will support scattered
convection Friday afternoon. While forecast soundings indicate
relatively meager instability indices, a few robust updrafts cannot
be ruled out.

As the parent trough ejects from the Central Plains into the Upper
Midwest Friday night, the warm front will lift northward. This
should result in a temporary lull in precipitation chances across
the Commonwealth overnight. However, as the cold front approaches
early Saturday, convective coverage is expected to increase.
Significant uncertainty remains regarding the Saturday afternoon
potential; pre-frontal cloud cover or ongoing morning convection to
the southwest could lead to atmospheric stabilization, thereby
diminishing the risk for severe weather. Conversely, should clearing
occur, the environment appears moderately favorable for organized
convection. Forecast soundings for Saturday afternoon suggest MUCAPE
values near 1,500 J/kg, effective bulk shear around 35 knots, and
surface dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. These parameters describe a
potent environment, though several limiting factors exist. Both low
and mid-level lapse rates remain marginal, and the wind profile is
largely unidirectional. While speed shear is sufficient for storm
organization, the lack of directional veering results in low ESRH
values, which may limit the tornadic threat. While no SPC exists for
Saturday, they mentioned the possibility of future outlooks for
potential severe weather.

By Sunday, the cold front is forecast to be oriented northeast to
southwest across the CWA. Weak CAA will trim temperatures by roughly
10 degrees compared to Saturday, though conditions will remain mild
with highs in the 60s. Models suggest the boundary may stall over
the heart of the CWA, acting as a focus for continued shower
development through Monday. Another upper-level wave is propped to
cross the CONUS on Tuesday, maintaining unsettled weather. Despite
multiple rounds of precipitation, total QPF from Saturday through
Wednesday evening is forecast to remain below 2 inches. While this
may result in modest rises on local streams and rivers, the overall
flash flooding threat remains low. Temperatures through the period
will trend well above seasonal averages, potentially peaking in the
80s on Tuesday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026

A warm front is starting to drift south from the Ohio-Kentucky
boarder late this evening. Showers continue along and north of
this boundary and as it settles back south its convection will
work back into the JKL aviation forecast area. A stray
thunderstorm or two may initiate along the front late tonight
through midday. North and eastern sites will see showers for the
latter part of the night and though the bulk of the day, most
persistent at KIOB, KSYM, KSJS, and KJKL. Winds will remain out
of the south to southwest through the duration of the TAF period
generally at 7 to 12 kts with occasional higher gusts, especially
near any stronger convection. In addition, a bit of LLWS will be
around initially - from the southwest at up to 40 kts, just off
the sfc.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GREIF