Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

111
FXUS63 KJKL 201812
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
212 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather should last through at least Sunday morning.

- Showers and thunderstorms will make a return Sunday night and
  Monday, possibly bringing heavy rainfall.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026

Mid morning observations have been blended into the forecast,
without any substantive changes.

UPDATE Issued at 618 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026

Main update was to Sky grids, increasing cloud cover to account
for a mid-level cloud deck that is poised to move across the area
later this morning through early afternoon. Otherwise, the
forecast is on track with just minor updates to hourly T/Td grids,
using the latest hourly observations as the initialization of the
forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 243 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026

An unusually strong jet stream (for mid-June) persists within a
broad longwave trough extending from the north-central CONUS east
through the Midwest and then through the Mid-Atlantic region, while
at the surface high pressure resides over the area through dawn
Sunday. A progressive system then exits east across the central
CONUS Sunday, with warm advection strengthening through the day to
the south of a warm front that becomes established roughly
along/parallel to the Ohio River.

Dry conditions persist today and tonight as surface high pressure
remains in control, with light west-northwest breezes increasing in
the afternoon especially across the northeastern half of the area
where slightly stronger winds aloft can mix down with daytime
heating/mixing. A few showers cannot be completely ruled out with a
weak front and low-level convergence along and north of the I-64
corridor late this afternoon into early evening, but opted to keep
PoPs below the 15 percent threshold needed for explicit inclusion in
the point-and-click and text forecasts.

This boundary just to the north sharpens as a warm front Sunday,
with warm advection increasing through the day and ushering higher
dew points into the area, especially west of the escarpment. A
modest increase in PoPs occurs in the afternoon favoring those areas
toward central Kentucky where better moisture, instability, and lift
are expected.

Highs in the lower to mid 80s today will jump a few degrees into the
mid to upper 80s Sunday, with dew points rising through the 60s as
the day progresses. Lows tonight will rise a few degrees from this
morning`s lows, with mid to upper 50s in the valleys to lower to mid
60s on ridges. River valley fog is expected to be commonplace
tonight given good radiational cooling conditions in place.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 306 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026

Fast zonal flow will push a low pressure system east along a warm
front/stationary boundary from west-central IL Sunday evening to
the Central Appalachians Monday evening. A trailing progressive
shortwave will move east along the trailing cold front from the
Central Plains through the OH/TN valleys, crossing central and
eastern Kentucky during the day Monday. An excessive rainfall risk
remains for later Sunday through Monday, both with the strong
warm advection and moisture transport northeast across central and
northeastern Kentucky late Sunday, followed by a likely higher
risk for Monday as flow becomes more westerly and allows for
better moisture transport to penetrate into far eastern and
southeastern Kentucky, at least briefly. While this event does
not look as robust as the previous system, the recent heavy
rainfall will mean soils and small streams will be a bit more
susceptible to flash flooding and high water issues. Additionally,
sufficient shear and instability will likely exist during this time
to support a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms from late Sunday
through frontal passage Monday, with damaging winds being the
primary severe weather threat both days.

Progressive cyclonic flow aloft persists through the remainder of
the week within a broad longwave trough across much of the
northern and eastern CONUS, with mostly dry conditions expected
Tuesday through much of Wednesday as surface high pressure moves
across the area. Additional disturbances will likely push from the
Northern and Central High Plains through the central part of the
country for the remainder of the period, bringing a return of
shower and thunderstorm chances, though there is relatively poor
model agreement on the details of the timing, magnitude, and
location of these disturbances moving through the progressive
flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026

There is a slight chance of a few showers or thunderstorms north
of KSYM this evening. Should they occur, isolated IFR conditions
would be expected. Otherwise, prevailing VFR conditions are
forecast until late tonight. Valley fog is forecast overnight and
early Sunday morning, mainly over eastern KY, and would bring
localized IFR or worse conditions. Once it leaves, VFR conditions
are expected through the remainder of the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL/CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...HAL