Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

339
FXUS63 KJKL 250838
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
338 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A major winter storms impacts linger today and likely into
  tonight.

- Bitter cold weather returns tonight and lasts through next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1057 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026

Mixed precip has made it as far north as KJKL, slightly faster
than was forecast. Snow has underperformed so far in most places.
00Z runs indicate heavier precip on the way overnight and on
Sunday, but during that time frame temps aloft should put most
places as either mixed precip or freezing rain, or even plain rain
in our southern and southeastern counties. This could put a
significant part of the system as freezing rain all the way north
to around I-64.

UPDATE Issued at 807 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026

Precip is ongoing. A transition to mixed precip is occurring over
our Cumberland Basin region, largely on track, and will continue
to progress northward tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 300 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026

As of 19Z, light snow was being reported as far north as Jackson, KY
and areas south. Snow will continue to spread north across the
entire area this afternoon into this evening. This is from the well
advertised winter storm coming out of the Southwest.

Forecast trends have consistently pushed heaviest snowfall further
north, with much of the area now remaining south of the expected
heaviest axis. That said, significant snowfall is still forecasted
for the northern half of the CWA, with areas from Powell over to
Morgan and north can expect 4 to 6 inches of snowfall, and ice
accumulations between three-tenths and six-tenths of an inch. The
area from Estill over to Johnson, extending south to Pulaski and
over to Pike can expect 2 to 4 inches of snowfall, and ice
accumulations between one quarter and three quarters of an inch.
Lastly, Wayne over to Letcher can expect 1 to 3 inches of snowfall,
and between one quarter and three quarters of an inch of ice. Winter
Storm Warnings remain in place through 7 am Monday.

Additionally, temperatures will be important to the evolution of this
system. At current, temperatures range from the lower to upper teens
across Eastern Kentucky. Todays high temperature is forecasted to
range from the upper teens across the north to low to mid 30s across
the south. This may occur just before midnight, as the "warm-nose"
of air has yet to work into the area. At the same time, low
temperatures this evening are forecasted to range from the teens to
upper 20s from north to south. This may also occur just after
midnight, or early in the overnight, as temperatures are expected to
rise considerably by morning, likely being in the low 20s to low 30s
from north to south, by sunrise Sunday. As somewhat mentioned
earlier, snow is expected to transition to a wintry mix, including
sleet and freezing rain anytime  after 7-8 PM in the far south. This
transition to a wintry mix will slowly push north towards the I-64
corridor overnight. Beyond Sunday morning, temperatures will
continue to rise, with highs forecasted to range from the upper 20s
north of I-64, to the mid 40s along the stateline with Tennessee and
Virgina. As such this wintry mix is expected to changeover to rain
for a few hours Sunday afternoon.

By Sunday night, around 7-8 PM, colder air will begin to work back
into the area from the northwest and continue southeast across the
area. This will transition precipitation back over to a wintry mix
including snow through Sunday night. Temperatures will fall sharply
overnight. Temperatures around midnight are expected to range from
the teens in the west to mid 20s further east. By Monday morning
area wide temperatures will be hovering around 10 to 15 degrees,
with any precipitation still falling, being snow. With rain expected
for a period Sunday afternoon, and the rapid cooling of temperatures
overnight, wet roads could lead to re-freezing or slick spots come
Monday morning. A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued Sunday night
through noon Monday for wind chills as cold as 5 below zero from
Wayne up to Fleming county, including Rowan.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026

The period is expected to begin with an upper level trough extending
from Canada into the Central and eastern Conus while an upper level
ridge should initially be in place near the west coast of the Conus.
An initial shortwave trough should be shifting east of eastern KY as
the period begins per the consensus of guidance. Meanwhile, an upper
level low is expected to be present in Canada near the James Bay
vicinity with multiple disturbances rotating around it, including one
that should extend into the upper MS Valley and be nearing the
western Great Lakes as the period begins. At that point at the
surface, a ridge of high pressure is expected to extend from the
Southern Plains into the TN Valley and the Lower OH Valley. Further
upstream and associated with the upper trough extending into the
Upper MS Valley, a clipper type system is expected to be centered
over western Ontario with the trailing cold front into the Upper MS
Valley to Northern Plains.

For Monday night to Tuesday night, surface high pressure will shift
to the south and southeast of eastern KY late Monday night into
Tuesday. This will allow for clearing skies and likely lower min T
for valley locations and snow covered areas compared to the NBM
deterministic. Some adjustments were made to account for this for
Monday night lows. Return flow as the high departs should result in
somewhat milder temperatures areawide for Tuesday. However, at the
same time, the upper trough/clipper system should track across
Ontario and the Great Lakes and into the Northeast Conus. The
clipper systems trailing cold front will drop across the OH Valley
region and eastern KY late Tuesday into Tuesday night, with
reinforcing colder air for midweek. A few flurries and snow showers
are also possible with that system late Tuesday through Tuesday
night.

Upper level troughing will remain the dominant weather feature from
the Great Lakes into the eastern Conus from mid to late week.
Multiple clipper systems are expected to cross the Great Lakes and
OH Valley region including eastern KY. One should move through the
Great Lakes to the Northeast during the Tuesday night to Wednesday
night timeframe. This system should bring an increase in moisture
and clouds to eastern KY late Wednesday and Wednesday night, with a
better chances for scattered snow showers and flurries as compared
to the system 24 hours prior. Another reinforcement of colder air
also arrives with this system. Guidance has another clipper system
for the end of the period. As with the previous clipper systems,
flurries or a few snow showers would again be possible.

Overall, the cold weather will persist and be the main story by mid
to late week. Highs will average well below normal through the
entire period, on the order of 15 to 25 degrees below normal, with
similar departures for lows as well.

The coldest lows and apparent temperatures on average will be Monday
night to early on Tuesday when an Excessive Cold Watch remains in
effect.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026

A mix of IFR and MVFR conditions was present at the start of the
period. Precipitation was ongoing in most places. It was mostly in
the form of a wintry mix or freezing rain in the south, with snow
lingering in the far north in the KSYM vicinity.

A general deterioration to mostly IFR conditions (or worse) is
expected during the first 3 to 5 hours of the period, with the
poor conditions lasting through the rest of the period. Some
improvements into or toward MVFR may occur late in the northwest.
The wintry mix should progress north across the remainder of the
area through around 10Z. Freezing rain will continue to progress
northward tonight, probably all the way to Fleming County (north
of KSYM) by dawn. A change to plain rain will also progress
gradually north to near the Mountain Parkway in the afternoon.
The precipitation should then begins to switch to wintry forms
areawide again from NW to SE to end the period as much colder air
arrives.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EST Monday
for KYZ044-050>052-058-059-068-069-079-083.

Extreme Cold Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning
for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.


&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...HAL/JP