Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

731
FXUS63 KJKL 211926
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
326 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are anticipated over the
  next seven days, including the holiday weekend.

- The switch to an active and wetter pattern yields temperatures
  closer to normal readings, and is likely to provide at least
  temporary relief from drought conditions.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 232 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026

Light rain, showery in places, continues at times this afternoon.
The back edge of the rain is to our northwest and gradually
approaching Fleming County. The forecast through the remainder of
the day remains little changed.

UPDATE Issued at 1123 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026

Areas of light rain across the CWA should gradually taper from the
northwest from mid-afternoon through the evening as a frontal
boundary, draped over southeastern Kentucky late this morning,
finally sags southward. Temperatures shouldn`t move more than
about 2 to 5 degrees through the remainder of the day.

UPDATE Issued at 742 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026

Made a quick update to hourly T/Tds based on latest observations.
Otherwise, there are no changes to the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 459 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026

Updated PoPs through the remainder of this morning based on the
latest model trends. Also removed mention of thunder from the
grids until after dawn Friday based on continued model trends and
the expected thermodynamic environment across the area through
that time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 338 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026

A strongly sheared shortwave disturbance will slowly advance east
and northeast across the Upper Tennessee, southeastern Ohio River
Valley through late this evening, and then exit east across the
Central Appalachians ahead of shortwave ridging over the Ohio
River Valley late tonight into early Friday. A more amplified
shortwave disturbance extending from the center of the country
into the Deep South then moves northeast across TN and Ohio
Valleys through the day Friday. At the surface, a cold front
stalls over far southeastern Kentucky later today and tonight
before moving back north as a warm front Friday with the
aforementioned trailing shortwave crossing the area.

For today, a fairly widespread rain will move gradually east in
association with the sheared shortwave that will make very slow
eastward progression within the southwesterly flow aloft, while
weak cold advection with light north and northeast winds keep a
steady push of cooler air into the area to the north of the cold
front. The result will be a mostly dreary day along and north of
the cold front with low clouds and periods of rain/showers, with
some gradual improvement in skies from the northwest as the
shortwave advances east later today into tonight. To the south of
the front, sufficient weak instability will exist such that any
partial clearing and heating may be enough to fire off a few
thunderstorms, so areas south of the KY Highway 80 corridor will
be most likely to see a storm today.

The trailing shortwave arrives Friday and brings a deep fetch of
warm air and moisture from the Gulf. As the warm front lifts
north across the area, the warm front will pivot from a west-east
direction over eastern Kentucky to a north-south direction, with
drier air on the east side owing to some weak downsloping across
far eastern Kentucky. However, to the west and south of the warm
front, sufficient yet weak instability and shear may exist for a
stronger thunderstorm over parts of the area, and the SPC has
placed a Marginal Risk for Friday in its Day 2 Convective Outlook
for mainly central into parts of northeastern Kentucky, with the
primary severe weather threats being isolated damaging winds and a
brief weak tornado or two.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 327 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026

The forecast period begins with a surface low moving northeast
through the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. The
associated warm front is progged to lift slowly northward with the
surface low. This will usher in a WAA regime with climbing
temperatures; however, along with the rising temperatures,
widespread showers and thunderstorms will be likely. Highs Saturday
are forecast to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, accompanied by a
nearly 100 percent chance of rain throughout the day. Forecast
soundings Saturday afternoon paint a picture of efficient rainfall
efficiency, while also hinting at a conditional strong to severe
storm threat. Precipitable water values are upwards of 1.60 to 1.70
inches. On the severe side, around 1500 to 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE will
exist alongside moderately steep lapse rates; however, vertical wind
shear is quite meager, which remains the primary limiting factor.
Even so, it would not be surprising if the SPC issues a Marginal
Risk. PoP values start to diminish for the overnight period as
diurnal instability wanes and the primary frontal forcing moves off
to the north. However, another surface low moving northeast will
quickly fill the void, allowing for increasing rain chances
beginning early Sunday morning.

Sunday brings another warm frontal passage with showers and
thunderstorms possible throughout the day. Temperatures start to
warm into the low to mid 80s behind the warm front, but the big
story will continue to be the ongoing shower and thunderstorm
threat. PWs climb higher Sunday into Monday as efficient moisture
advection shifts into the area behind the warm front. PW values will
climb to around 1.80 inches, exhibiting a skinny CAPE profile on
soundings with very little overall instability present hinting at
efficient rainfall taking place. This active pattern will continue
through the forecast period. Temperatures will remain largely
seasonal, but repeated rounds of showers and storms are expected.
Through the entire extended forecast period, the forecast total QPF
will range from over an inch in the Bluegrass/I-64 corridor, up to
2.00 inches in the Lake Cumberland area, and almost 2.50 inches
across the east-central part of the CWA. These numbers will
certainly fluctuate depending on convective activity and where
mesoscale bands set up, but nonetheless, this will be a wet Memorial
Day weekend into next week.

In summary, an active and unsettled weather pattern will dominate
the region through the holiday weekend and into next week as a
series of surface lows and warm fronts track across the Ohio Valley.
While robust warm air advection will pull seasonal temperatures into
the 70s and 80s, it will also transport deep, tropical-like moisture
into the area, yielding precipitable water values up to 1.80 inches.
This environment will support widespread, hydro-efficient rainfall
and embedded thunderstorms, with localized totals potentially
exceeding 2.50 inches across portions of the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026

Widespread showery light rain, low cigs, and fog will cause
prolonged MVFR and lower conditions through the period. Thunderstorms
will be possible again on Friday with the arrival of a warm front.
Winds will remain light through the period, generally under 10
kts and primarily out of the northeast initially veering to
southeast with time.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON/CMC