Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

030
FXUS63 KJKL 260903
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
403 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Passing disturbances will lead to a few snow showers at times
  today and these could produce light accumulations in some areas.

- Bitter cold weather lasts through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 400 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026

Early this morning, an upper level low was centered in the James
Bay vicinity within an upper trough extending into the Central
and eastern Conus. Another upper low moving through this trough
was working across Manitoba with a shortwave trough extending from
the Central Great Lakes to the mid MS Valley and another
shortwave in the KS/OK vicinity. An initial shortwave is also
approaching the area. Following the arctic front yesterday
evening, cold air advection continues and low level moisture
lingers. Low level winds currently have an upslope west to
northwest component. Steadier snow has ended, but flurries and
bands of snow showers remain and these are leading to some light
fluffy accumulations where the bands are most persistent.

For today, cold air advection will continue and 850 mb temperatures
are expected to drop to as low as the -17C south to about -20C in
the north. Two notable shortwaves should cross the region, one
early that may be aiding the ongoing activity, with another deeper
shortwave from midday into the afternoon. Deeper moisture lingers
as the initial shortwave passes, while low level moisture into
the DGZ is expected to linger through the day. Some solar
insolation should also be in play this morning and as the second
shortwave passes. Flurries should continue and rounds of snow
showers are anticipated. Some of these could produce fluffy light
accumulations. Following pops in the isolated to scattered range
at present with the initial shortwave, pops are currently forecast
to decrease or have a bit of a lull around dawn. For now have
isolated pops in during the daylight hours hours, especially from
midday into the afternoon across the north and east. There is
some uncertainty as to how snow showers and flurries will evolve
throughout the day, but again, based on trends some fluffy light
accumulations appear probable at least for some areas. Other than
the snow showers or flurries, temperatures will remain cold,
likely struggling to climb above the 20 degree mark for many
locations.

For tonight, trend of sfc and upper ridging is anticipated,
though brief, with cold high pressure posed to build into eastern
KY later today and tonight as the high becomes centered across
the Southeastern states. Despite the high building in, enough of a
pressure gradient should remain allow for some mixiness and light
winds in the more open terrain locations and on ridges. There is
also uncertainty with lows tonight, but clearing or gradual
clearing should allow for several valley and low lying areas to
cool off below NBM guidance and this may be the case across the
board. Lows generally between 5 below zero and 5 above zero are
anticipated. Pending the timing of clearing, low clouds should
linger into the DGZ and some flurries could linger at least as
late as this evening and potential later than the ongoing
forecast.

Tuesday, high pressure departs to the south and east while the the
upper low/shortwave currently in the Manitoba vicinity treks into
Ontario and the Great Lakes and its associated cold front/clipper
system approaches eastern KY. Some return flow should result in
a bit milder, but still well below normal high temperatures for
Tuesday highs. NBM guidance has had a recent bias too low for
sustained winds and gusts ahead of recent fronts and both values
in the deterministic were lower than MOS guidance and BUFKIT
momentum transfer, etc. Opted to increase both sustained winds
and gusts for Tuesday. It is possible some gusts to 30 mph or
perhaps locally higher may occur for better clarity within the
range of possibilities. Also, late Tuesday as moisture increases
near the approaching front, some flurries or spotty light snow
cannot be completely ruled out in the far north/near and north of
I-64.

As for current headlines, the winter storm warning remains in
effect through 7 AM EST for the lingering affects of the weekend
winter storm, or the main event. Cold Weather advisories remain in
effect for western locations through the morning for wind chills
as low as the single digits below zero. An extreme cold warning
was issued for western and southern locations for wind chills as
low as the 10 to 20 below range, while a cold weather advisory was
hoisted for a swath from Breathitt, Perry, and Leslie counties
east and northeast to Martin and Pike counties where wind chills
should be not quite as low as locations within the Extreme Cold
Warning, in the 5 to 15 below range, generally falling below
Extreme Cold Warning criteria. Impacts should be similar nonetheless
and the persistent cold weather through tonight and over the
coming days could lead to additional infrastructure or utility
impacts.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 342 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026

The forecast period begins with a clipper system tracking across the
Great Lakes. By the start of the period, the surface low is progged
to be just east of the Great Lakes; however, its associated cold
front will be draped southwestward through the Commonwealth and
progressing eastward. Through the first few hours of the extended
period, this boundary will move through the Commonwealth, bringing
isolated snow showers (0-20%) through Wednesday, primarily for
locations along the higher terrain of eastern Kentucky. Little to no
accumulation is expected; should any occur, it would remain under an
inch. Behind the exiting front, northwesterly flow and CAA will
allow low temperatures to fall into the single digits to lower
teens. With the wind chill, values could drop as low as -15 degrees.
Surface high pressure will build into the region behind the exiting
front on Tuesday; however, persistent northwesterly flow will keep
CAA the dominant temperature regime. Consequently, daytime highs and
overnight lows will remain well below average through the period.

Models remain in good agreement regarding a second perturbation
tracking through the mean upper-level flow. This feature appears
meteorologically similar to the system from the previous weekend, as
the source region for this low is forecast to be along the Gulf
Coast. Guidance keeps the system largely suppressed to the south,
but as it pivots northeast along the spine of the Appalachians, the
precipitation shield is forecast to graze the eastern half of the
CWA. This will bring another round of isolated (10-20%) snow showers
overnight Friday into Saturday. Cold surface high pressure will
build back into the region for the remainder of the weekend, while
upper-level northwesterly flow maintains CAA and continued below-
average temperatures.

The period will be highlighted by the passage of two surface waves
that could bring isolated chances of snow showers with light
accumulations. Aside from these waves, the period will be dominated
by northwesterly flow, favoring persistent, well below-average
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026

Mainly MVFR was observed across the region at TAF issuance time
with a few instances of IFR to south and southeast of the TAF
sites. Some light snow was occurring there with some flurries
hanging on back to the northwest.

Cold air advection with MVFR and some instances of IFR should
largely prevail for the at least the fist 12 hours of the period
as a couple of disturbances pass and winds in the low levels
maintain an upslope component. High pressure begins to build into
the area during the last 12 hours of the period and should result
in low clouds beginning to scatter and improvements to VFR
areawide. Winds should average northwest to west during the first
18 hours of the period at generally less than 10KT, though with
the heating of the day, some gusts upwards of 20KT will be
possible between 15Z and 00Z. Winds should slacken to end the
period as the sfc high builds in.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST today for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-106-108-109-111>118.

Extreme Cold Warning from 7 PM this evening to noon EST Tuesday
for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106-108-
111-114-116-118.

Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to noon EST Tuesday
for KYZ107-109-110-112-113-115-117-119-120.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...JP