Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

984
FXUS63 KJKL 222019
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
419 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A well-defined, and rather strong, cold front will bring showers
  to most of the area tonight, and possibly gusty thunderstorms.

- Some thunderstorms tonight may contain hail or damaging wind,
  especially near and north of Interstate 64.

- The airmass behind this front will be noticeably cooler and
  significantly drier. This could lead to critically low relative
  humidity values on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 418 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026

A cold front is positioned in southern IL, southern IN, and OH
late today, supported by a wave moving through WNW flow in the
mid-upper levels. Winds aloft are increasing as the wave
approaches. Thunderstorms are developing over eastern OH and PA,
and are expected to develop further westward tonight as the front
moves south. Modest shear and instability could be enough for
some strong storms in our northern counties.

Much cooler and drier air will arrive behind the front and after
morning clouds, at least partial sun should return on Monday.
Temperatures should make it to near seasonal norms, but with the
new air mass, it will result in afternoon RH dropping to near
critical thresholds.

A shortwave passing to our southwest on Monday night will give us
an increase in high clouds. Depending on the thickness of the
clouds and the ability of winds to diminish, temperatures could
drop well below freezing in valleys by Tuesday morning.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 333 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026

The models are in good agreement with the long wave pattern
remaining fairly amplified across the majority of North America
through the end of the week. A seasonably strong ridge will
start out positioned over the southwestern CONUS, while a closed
low spirals off the coasts of British Columbia/Alaska and another
over the Northwestern Passages. This will allow for brisk west to
west northwest 500 mb flow across the northern half of the CONUS.
Most of the better defined short wave energy will take a path
closer to the Canadian border through the middle of next week,
before some deeper northern stream energy inbound from south
central Canada then traverses the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region
Friday into Saturday. By this weekend, a trough will be aligned
across the eastern CONUS, while ridging aligns over the
Continental Divide. By that time, there is more model disagreement
regarding the amplitude and timing of these features.

A cool start across eastern Kentucky will be on tap Tuesday
morning, with high pressure centered across the Upper Ohio
Valley. During the day, a weak inverted surface trough noses in
from the Tennessee Valley, with winds remaining light out of the
east to east northeast for locations generally north of KY-80/Hal
Rogers Parkway. Temperatures will rebound to the mid 50s north of
I-64, to the mid 60s towards the Tennessee border. GFS/NAM MOS
guidance has trended cooler with the highs this go around, but
ECWMF MOS remains warm. The blended guidance remains on the
warmer-side of guidance, and will continue this regime, especially
given the amount of drier air noted in the 700-925 mb range.
This may be one of those mornings when Black Mountain sees dew
points go below or even well below zero at some point, as the
associated subsidence inversion descends. There is still some
uncertainty though on details, so have not deviated from the
blended guidance much at this point. Did lower dew points a bit
more so than the blended guidance indicated during the afternoon,
but not quite as aggressive as the 10th percentile, given the more
limited mixing expected. This will result in relative humidities
bottoming out in the teens to 20s for most locations.

Surface high pressure will shift east Tuesday night, allowing for
modest return flow. The dry start, despite an influx of
potentially thicker high clouds should set the stage for some good
deeper valley decoupling. Temperatures will dip into the mid to
upper 30s at the typically colder hollows, while ridges stay up
in the low to mid 40s. Winds will veer more to the southwest on
Wednesday, allowing for increased moisture and warmer air. Highs
rebound to the 60s and lower 70s, with plentiful low level clouds
developing during the day. Clouds will continue into Wednesday
night into Thursday morning, with a chance of showers and perhaps
a rumble of thunder accompanying a passing warm front. Lows will
moderate to the 50s. Thursday afternoon will be warm and dry,
given the rising 500 mb heights. Highs will be in the upper 70s to
lower 80s. A cold front will then approach from the northwest
Thursday night and pass through eastern Kentucky on Friday, when
PoPs currently peak in the likely range (50-70%). Depending on the
exact timing, there could be quite a gradient in the high
temperatures, with locations north of I-64 in the mid 50s, while
early day highs in the lower 70s hang on nearest the
Tennessee/Virginia borders. Drier weather will take hold for next
weekend. Temperatures will dip into the 20s and 30s by Saturday
morning, with below normal readings continuing through the day, as
temperatures only rebound into the 50s for most locations. This
coolness will be short-lived, as highs rebound to the 60s by
Sunday, thanks to return flow ensuing once again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 206 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026

VFR conditions are forecast until late tonight. A cold front will
move SSE through the area late tonight, with rain and perhaps
some thunderstorms accompanying it, arriving around 04Z north of
I-64 and reaching the VA border about 08-09Z. Widespread MVFR
conditions are expected to arrive with the precipitation, with IFR
possible at times. MVFR conditions should linger behind the front
after precipitation ends. Ceilings then break up from NW to SE
from around 12-18Z on Monday, leaving VFR conditions.

Southwesterly winds will gust 15-20 kts this afternoon and early
evening, with gustiness then subsiding for a time. However, with
mixing and gustiness subsiding, a period of low level wind shear
is possible in some locations just ahead of tonight`s cold front.
Winds will shift to the north and again gust 15-20 kts in some
locations after cold frontal passage late tonight.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...HAL