Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

799
FXUS63 KJKL 051313 CCA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
812 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The best chances for and thunderstorms today and tonight will be
  north of the Hal Rogers Pkwy to KY 80 corridor.

- Temperatures will likely soar into the upper 70s south of the
  Mtn Pkwy today with mid 70s to lower 80s areawide on Friday and
  Saturday, threatening daily record highs.

- Strong to severe storms will be possible Saturday as a strong
  cold front moves through the area with damaging winds the
  primary threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 555 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026

Early this morning an upper level ridge was centered in the
vicinity of Bermuda with somewhat zonal flow form the Rockies to
the OH Valley and mid Atlantic states downstream of an upper
trough working across the western Conus. Stronger northern stream
westerlies were generally north of the US/Canadian border with an
increase in winds aloft as a shortwave trough moving from the
Central Conus into the OH Valley and around the ridging that
extends into the southeast Conus. A quasi stationary boundary
remains in place north and east of eastern KY and and east of the
Central Appalachians. A sfc wave associated with the shortwave
was working along the boundary and located over IL. Convection was
located in the proximity of the boundary with the southern end of
the convection over central to western KY gradually making some
eastward advancement, but this activity has generally moved north
more quickly than it has eastward thus far.

The shortwave trough should continue around the ridging that
extends into the southeast and near the upper OH Valley this
evening and then across New England tonight. Meanwhile the sfc low
will pass north of eastern KY with the boundary potentially
inching further north of the OH River. Another sfc low will
develop in the Lee of Rockies later today and tonight on the
western extent of this boundary as a shortwave trough moves to the
Four Corners vicinity. That trough will then move into the Central
Conus while the sfc low is progged to move toward the IA vicinity.
This will keep eastern KY in the warm sector through the period.

CAMS and extrapolation would bring the convection or an outflow
to the west into the northern half of the CWA later this morning
with some showers and a few thunderstorms possible with
convection arriving and or developing. The focus of this activity
should be north of the Hal Rogers Pkwy to KY 80 corridor for the
most part and may even be more confined to the Mtn Parkway or
north of that. The exact southern extent is uncertainty with some
slight chance pops carried well to the south and pops peaking in
the likely range this afternoon to early evening near or north of
the I-64 corridor. Although the boundary should lift north, high
resolution models at least in some of the recent runs generally
has some convection hanging on in the evening and perhaps
overnight near the I-64 corridor north. The same pattern should
continue into Friday per guidance trends and consensus with
scattered convection in the more northern locations or north of
the area and isolated convection possible further south,
particularly during peak heating with not much change in 500 mb
heights.

Temperatures will be mild on the order of 20 to 25 degrees above
normal for highs in the south today including JKL and LOZ and then
areawide on Friday. As for highs for March 5th, the 80/1983 at
JKL will likely not be reached though the 77/1983 at LOZ is more
vulnerable to being tied or broken. Barring any suppression of
temperatures from convection, highs should be 20 to 30 degrees
above normal. Records for the 6th are 80/1983 for JKL and 77/1956
at LOZ could be reached or exceeded. Again, the record at LOZ is
likely to be more vulnerable.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026

The extended period begins Friday evening with the region positioned
under the influence of surface high pressure while simultaneously
entering the warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front. The
parent surface low is progged to migrate northeast from the Mid-
Mississippi Valley toward the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes.
As this evolution occurs, the associated warm front will lift
through the Ohio Valley while the cold front slowly tracks eastward.
Within the warm sector, temperatures are forecast to remain mild,
ranging from the low to mid 60s overnight Friday into Saturday.

Beginning Saturday morning, forecast uncertainty increases regarding
the potential for strong to severe convection. Two primary scenarios
are currently being monitored. In the first scenario, the area
remains rain-free with clearing skies, allowing for increased
destabilization by Saturday afternoon. Deterministic forecast
soundings for this solution indicate MUCAPE values near 1,500 J/kg,
effective bulk shear around 35 knots, and surface dewpoints in the
low to mid 60s. While low-level lapse rates appear favorable, mid-
level lapse rates remain marginal. A significant limiting factor for
this scenario is the core of the LLJ, which is forecast to shift
northeastward before the arrival of the front, effectively
disconnecting the strongest kinematic support from the thermodynamic
environment. Conversely, the second scenario involves pre-frontal
showers or persistent cloud cover, which would significantly limit
the severe weather threat. In this case, robust atmospheric recovery
would be required before the arrival of the cold front Saturday
afternoon. In the latest SPC Day 3 outlook, the area is comfortably
in a Marginal Risk but the northeastern third of the CWA is clipped
by a Slight Risk which would primarily focused on where the LLJ is
playing the biggest role. Regardless of the scenario, the front will
move into the region Saturday, bringing widespread showers and
thunderstorms before stalling in a northeast-to-southwest
orientation across the area through Sunday.

A brief reprieve from precipitation is expected early Monday;
however, this will be short-lived. The stalled boundary will serve
as the focus for convective redevelopment by Monday afternoon. While
PoPs do not fall to 0 percent, they decrease to 10 percent before
rising to 30-40 percent as an upper-level wave interacts with the
baroclinic zone. This feature will lift the boundary northward as a
warm front through Tuesday. By Wednesday, the warm front is forecast
to extend from Missouri to Maine, with a primary surface low
situated over the Ark-La-Tex region. This placement keeps the CWA
within the warm sector ahead of a subsequent cold front toward the
end of the period.

The forecast period will be characterized by multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms, with the potential for strong to severe
activity on Saturday if environmental parameters align. Temperatures
are forecast to remain well above average, peaking near 80 degrees
on Tuesday and Wednesday before cooler post-frontal air arrives on
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026

For the 12Z TAF issuance VFR was reported over central to eastern
KY as the main area of showers and storms continues to remain
nearer to the OH River and west of I-65 from KSDF south to middle
and western TN. Convection to the west should gradually move
toward the region during the first 6 hours of the period, and
be more likely to affect locations form KJKL to KSJS north or the
4 more northern TAF sites after 14Z. As the last 12 hours
progresses convection if it occurs should be more focused nearer
to KIOB and KSYM. Outside of the stronger showers or storms,
conditions should remain mainly VFR, with occasional MVFR,
and in some cases brief IFR in convection. Further south, KSME
and KLOZ will remain prevailing VFR throughout the period. With
stronger winds aloft initially present, LLWS will be a threat
through 14Z or 15Z. As the nocturnal inversion mixes out and
convection and/or an outflow boundary arrive from the west, south
to southwest winds with gusts to around 25KT are possible,
generally between 14Z and 21Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...JP