Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

104
FXUS63 KJKL 251205 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
705 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Milder temperatures will make a comeback for the next week.

- The greatest probability of precipitation (mainly rain) over the
  next week is tonight or Thursday for most locations.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 640 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026

Winds have settled a bit across the north with still some good
gusts found to the west of the JKL CWA. Will remove the mention in
the HWO and let the SPS expire at 13Z. Otherwise, no significant
changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion
of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td grids. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 555 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026

10Z sfc analysis shows a tight pressure gradient across Kentucky
as a fairly deep low is passing through the Great Lakes - north
of high pressure holding over the Southeast and still influencing
southeast parts of the state. This gradient is keeping the winds
up this night - generally from the southwest at 5 to 15 mph with
some gusts to as high as 35 mph - mainly for places along and
north of the Mountain Parkway and points west of I-75. A cold
front is slipping south toward northern Kentucky this morning
pushing plenty of clouds through the area along with some very
light rain and virga (likely bringing down some of the higher
winds aloft) in the northern parts of the CWA. Currently,
temperatures are generally in the low to mid 40s most places.
Meanwhile, dewpoints vary from the low 20s west to the teens in
the far east.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, continue to be
in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict the passing of a 5h trough through the
Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley. This maintains west to
northwesterly mid-level flow through the state during the short
term carrying a few impulses along with it. The last of these is
the most impressive and will help to generate our best chances of
soaking rains for the period. With still similar model solutions
through Thursday evening, the NBM was used as the starting point
of the grids with mainly some adjustments to the PoPs and QPF made
to incorporate factors of the current CAMs consensus.

Sensible weather features a breezy and cloudy start to the day
with still some gusts to between 30 and 40 mph possible ahead of
and along a cold front dropping south into the area. This will
also try to squeeze out some light rain from the lower clouds.
Some limited afternoon sunshine will help us get to mid and upper
50s for highs, most places. The cold front settles into southern
parts of the area by evening, with more moisture pooling along it
for tonight as it starts working back north. This boundary, now
more of a warm front, will continue to focus the rain - perhaps
even mixing with some light snow north - late tonight into
Thursday morning. This pcpn area then slides east and out of the
area early in the afternoon. The sfc wave associated with this -
supported by the mid-level impulse - will make for a cooler
afternoon with temperatures only reaching the upper 40s north and
low 50s south.

The changes to the NBM starting point primarily consisted of
tweaking the PoPs today into Thursday morning per the latest
higher resolution CAMs guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 500 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026

As the period begins, an upper level trough is expected to extend
across the Great Lakes into the eastern Conus from an upper low near
or north of Hudson Bay with the axis of that trough west of eastern
KY to begin the period. Meanwhile an upper level ridge is progged to
be centered west of the Baja vicinity with the axis of this ridge
extending north west of CA to OR coast. An initial shortwave trough
is expected to be moving into the Central/Southern Appalachians
about that point. A wavy frontal zone should be sagging further
southeast of eastern KY at that time as well and deeper moisture (PW
per 12Z LREF mean ranging from near 0.4 inches or near the 50th
percentile for this time of year to about 0.5 to 0.6 inches or the
60th to 70th percentile for this time of year) already having
departed following widespread rainfall in the near term period.

Thursday night to Friday night, the upper level ridge is expected to
remain centered near or southwest of Baja with the ridging extending
north into the southwest Conus as a trough/upper low in the eastern
Pacific nears the Pacific coast. Downstream, in the mean, broad
troughing will remain from Canada into the eastern and portions of
the Central Conus and west northwest to northwest flow should be
prevalent across the Conus with the stronger westerlies extending
from the Gulf of AK across BC to near the US/Canadian border across
the Great Lakes to the Northeast/St Lawrence Valley. Another
shortwave should cross the area early on Friday and may usher in
slightly drier air with no real notable sensible weather though some
modest 500 mb height rises are anticipated on Friday behind it. PW
falls to about 0.3 to 0.35 or the 40th to 45th percentile per the
12Z LREF mean through Friday with high pressure generally
dominating. This will result in some drying following the rain event
and with a good amount of solar insolation anticipated afternoon
dewpoints could end up a bit lower than the NBM deterministic
forecast and hedge down slightly for Friday afternoon. Rain chances
and QPF have both trended down for Thursday evening in the guidance
and decreasing clouds and low level moisture in the more
northwestern and western locations following a rain event and
suppressed temperatures on Thursday could result in some at least
patchy fog in the more western locations for Thursday night. The dry
airmass should warm to above normal levels as well with upper 50s
north to the low to mid 60s south compared to normals ranging from
around 50 in the far north to the low to mid 50s south.

A sfc ridge extending from east of the Northeast/mid Atlantic back
west into the Appalachians will begin to depart Friday night as the
next shortwave moving near the US/Canadian border rotates through
parts of the Great Lakes, Ontario and to Quebec. A trailing frontal
zone may drop across the western and central Great Lakes to the mid
MS Valley to Central Plains. The pattern of the departing ridge
remaining generally dominant and very little cloud cover forecast
will likely set the stage for a moderate magnitude ridge/valley
split for Friday night at least for eastern sections of the area as
compared to the NBM deterministic more uniform lows. Ridgetops in
the coalfields per point NBM data and MOS guidance may not fall
lower than around 40 if not the lower 40s while the normally colder
areas may drop to about he 30 degree mark as suggested by recent
Coop MOS guidance. Terrain adjustments were made here to be reflect
the synoptic pattern.

The upper trough should continue toward the Maritimes to being the
weekend over the weekend while broad troughing remains from Canada
into the eastern and parts of the central Conus as ridging remains
centered near Baja with axis moving to near or east the Four Corners
region. The frontal zone should drop into the Commonwealth to begin
the weekend on Saturday but forcing will be better north or
northeast of eastern KY and moisture will be limited, PW per the 12Z
LREF mean climbing to on the order of 0.4 to 0.5 inches or about the
50th to 60th percentile through Saturday evening. Better moisture
could lag into Saturday night into early Sunday per recent GFS
operational runs while the ECMWF is drier. Light precipitation
cannot be completely ruled out.

Guidance generally suggests that better moisture may move into the OH
Valley early in the new week with PW perhaps reaching 0.6 to 0.7
inches around midday on Monday per the 12Z LREF mean or on the order
of the 70th to 80th percentile and remain around those levels
through Tuesday as a system may develop in the High Plains as the
upper ridge extending in parts of the western US flattens and
multiple disturbances move from the Pacific across the western US and
into the Plains and toward the eastern Conus in the westerlies as an
upper low trough meander toward the Pacific coast. At the same time,
the frontal zone that crossed the area over the region may lift back
north as a warm front or a baroclinic zone redevelop in the OH
Valley vicinity. More substantial precipitation, generally all rain
would be possible during the first half of next week and the long
duration of chance pops from the NBM look reasonable to end the
period.

Temperatures remain mild into Saturday before a north to south
gradient in temperatures may take hold to end the weekend and start
early next week. More southern locations may remain 10 or more
degrees above normal for highs Monday into Tuesday with more
northern locations nearer to average for this time of year. The
exact temperatures will be highly dependent on the location of the
frontal zone and falling precipitation if persistent could result in
lower highs compared to the current forecast in the more southern
locations. Pending instability details, some thunder could also
occur early next week and possibly result in localized higher
rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026

VFR was holding on at the 12Z issuance time and should stay
through about 18Z Wednesday when some MVFR may develop in the
more southern locations. An overall lowering of clouds is
expected with time, through the next TAF issuance. A LLWS threat
remains for most of the area until around 15Z with winds aloft
from southwest at up to 45 kts. Patchy light rain is also
possible as a sagging front approaches from the north but should
have minimal impact to any of the TAF terminals. Winds will stay
breezy through the morning generally from the southwest at 10 to
15 kts with gusts to near 25 kts, at times - diminishing slowly
this afternoon and more substantially after dark.

Otherwise, as the front sags into the area, low and mid level
moisture is expected to increase, especially in the more southern
locations later tonight with the possibility of, mainly light,
rain. However, better rain chances and the probability of sub VFR
ceilings move in areawide tonight with IFR lower conditions
expected in the south as the forecast period ends.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GREIF