Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

387
FXUS63 KJKL 061802
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
202 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and very warm conditions continue through tonight, with
  afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s.

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms return Sunday
  afternoon and persist through most of next week.

- Rain chances peak Monday through Wednesday, with high moisture
  supporting a risk for locally heavy rainfall.

- Humid conditions continue through the week, with afternoon
  highs remaining generally in the 80s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026

Cloud cover is beginning to mix out in SE KY this morning, and
temperatures have begun their climb towards widespread highs in
the mid 80s. We witnessed a few sprinkles during our commutes to
the WFO along the KY-30 corridor this morning, but those radar
returns have subsided as of the time of writing. Additional, faint
radar returns are observed upstream along the I-71 corridor, but
models continue to collectively resolve midlevel height rises
over the commonwealth today. This should relegate any convective
activity in the Bluegrass to a light sprinkle, and
measurable/mentionable precipitation chances remain displaced to
the north of the CWA later this afternoon/evening. So, the QPF
previously resolved over Fleming County was removed with this
morning`s forecast update. Aside from this, the previous forecast
generally remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 637 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026

Temperatures have remained several degrees milder than previously
forecast over the northern foothill with some mixing/thicker mid-
level cloud cover early this morning, so hourly temperature
forecasts were brought into line with observations. Valley fog has
also been very limited. Otherwise, forecast seems to be in good
shape for the day ahead with mostly to partly sunny skies and
widespread highs in the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 338 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026

Another fair and seasonably mild early morning is underway across
eastern Kentucky with just some passing high clouds and temperatures
ranging from the mid/upper 50s in the cooler valleys to the
mid/upper 60s on the thermal belt ridges and exposed open terrain.
The latest surface weather map shows an !1020 mb surface high now
situated off of the Carolinas, displaced east of a 500 hPa ridge
axis along the Atlantic Seaboard. Upstream, a shallow trough is
propagating from the Upper Mid-Mississippi Valley and Upper
Midwest into the Great Lakes and Northern Ohio Valley. A weak area
of low pressure is passing through the Ottawa Valley vicinity out
ahead of the trough while a cold front is draped from the surface
reflection southwestward across the Upper Great Lakes and into
Wisconsin, Iowa and the Central Plains. Also of note is a weak
upper level low spinning over Western Texas and eastern New
Mexico.

The aforementioned upper level trough will brush north of the
Commonwealth today while the ridging is briefly shunted southward.
The trough`s associated cold front will sag southward into the
northern Ohio Valley but will then stall, abandoned as the trough
departs into the Northeast CONUS. Convection associated with this
boundary is favored to stay fully north and east of the forecast
area through tonight as heights rebound over the Commonwealth
behind the departing upper level trough. Those heights will
continue to rebound on Sunday as a transient pseudo-omega-shaped
500hPa ridge pumps up from the Ohio Valley northward into Ontario
while the upper low over the southern Plains opens and ejects
northeast to the vicinity of Kansas City, MO by 00z Monday. PWATs
will rise throughout the short-term period, first with moisture
pooling out ahead of the cold front stagnating to our north
today/tonight, then on Sunday with continued moisture advection
within deep southwesterly flow along the western flank of the
upper level ridging. A weak perturbation within the southwesterly
flow may spark isolated to scattered convection on Sunday (mainly
afternoon and evening), generally near and north of the Mountain
Parkway.

In sensible weather terms, look for a fair and very warm Saturday
across eastern Kentucky with temperatures rising into the mid to
upper 80s with a modest southwesterly breeze. Partly cloudy skies
follow tonight with lows in the lower to middle 60s. It will be
partly sunny and warm yet again on Sunday with highs in the mid
80s for most, though it will be more humid. There could also be
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the
afternoon and early evening, mainly near and north of the Mountain
Parkway.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 342 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026

The period should start with upper level ridging extending from the
southeast CONUS sharply northward over the Great Lakes. A weakening
upper low (currently over west TX) will be riding up the western
side of the ridge while a trough amplifies southeastward on the
eastern side. A surface cold front associated with the eastern
trough should be near or north of the Ohio River at the start of the
period, losing southward momentum as its supporting trough departs.
A rather moist air mass should be in place over our area south of
the front. With instability waning and ridging overhead, Sunday
night will probably be dry, despite the possible proximity of the
front.

A modest remnant trough from the western upper low is expected to
ripple/ride through the ridge on Monday into Wednesday and result in
geopotential height falls over us. At the same time, our low level
flow is forecast to increase out of the southwest and provide
warm/moist advection as what`s left of the front lifts back north.
This will probably result in our highest POP of the week as
convection (largely diurnal) occurs. Even with the trough passing
over, our flow aloft should remain fairly weak and limit storm
organization. However, high atmospheric moisture (PW near 2" in the
GFS) would support locally heavy rainfall.

The upper trough departs Wednesday night and upper level ridging
reestablishes over the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. There
is model disagreement as to how strong this renewed ridging will
be. If it`s modest, it may not be enough to overcome diurnal
destabilization and prevent deep convection, especially if a weak
cold front can approach from the north. Even if its stronger, the
ridge may be to our northwest and allow thunderstorms to develop
over us on its periphery. That being the case, a POP will remain
in the forecast Thursday and Friday, but with a lower probability
compared to Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026

Efficient diurnal processes are forecast given the ongoing weather
pattern, and this corresponds with the development of a cu field
across the terminals this afternoon. Scattered spatial coverage
of that cu field is observed across the southern two-thirds of
the forecast area. Further to the north, increased mid/upper level
clouds relegated that development to "few" coverage. Cu should
subside towards sunset, as will sporadic afternoon wind gusts
between 15 and 20 knots. Additional mid- to high-level clouds
linger overnight, but all ceilings will be above VFR thresholds.
River valley fog development is expected overnight, but given the
antecedent dryness and the lack of mentionable PoPs today, it is
not currently forecast to affect the TAF sites. Fog potential
looks greatest in the Cumberland River basin, so vsby reductions
cannot be entirely ruled out at southern terminals like KSME and
KLOZ. Recent probabilistic guidance has backed off the LAMP data`s
idea that these terminals will experience categorical impacts, so
fog potential was not explicitly mentioned in the 18z TAFs.
Observational trends will need to be monitored overnight though. An
increase in moisture tomorrow morning will lead to greater cloud
cover towards the end of the period, but mentionable rain chances
hold off until after 18z tomorrow afternoon. As such, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites for the
current issuance period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARCUS
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...HAL/GEERTSON
AVIATION...MARCUS