Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

284
FXUS63 KJKL 200511
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
111 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather should last through at least Sunday morning.

- Showers and thunderstorms will make a return Sunday night and
  Monday, possibly bringing heavy rainfall.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1051 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026

Increased Sky cover for the remainder of the first period, with
upstream high clouds moving over the area and becoming thicker
with time, though still remaining thin enough for valley fog
development. Also updated hourly T/Td grids for the next few hours
with an initialization using the latest hourly observations.

UPDATE Issued at 725 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows drier high pressure in control of the
weather over eastern Kentucky this evening. This is working to
settle the winds and keep skies mostly clear. Currently,
temperatures are running in the mid to upper 70s. Meanwhile, amid
northwest winds of 5 to 10 mph, dewpoints are generally vary from
the lower 50s north to near 60 degrees in the far southwest near
Lake Cumberland. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the
latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
a freshening of the zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 257 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026

A broad upper level trough will remain over the eastern CONUS during
the short term period. Its mean axis will be just to our east,
giving us a benign and dry west northwest flow aloft. Meanwhile,
surface high pressure currently over the mid Mississippi Valley will
shift only slowly eastward, reaching the central or southern
Appalachians early Sunday morning. It will continue to supply a
seasonable air mass with what would generally be considered
tolerable humidity for this time of year (dew points in the upper
50s and lower 60s). A weak cold front may approach the Ohio River
from the north by dawn on Sunday, but moisture return for the local
area should still be very limited at that point, and the forecast
remains dry through Saturday night.|

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 225 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in passing
agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast.
While the 5h longwave pattern consists of a series of fairly well
modeled troughs swirling west to east through southern Canada
during this time, to the south through the middle of the States,
the pattern is more muddled. Primarily this is due to inconsistent
handling off a weak wave entering the Ohio Valley Sunday. This
wave is strung out as it passes Kentucky just north of the Ohio
River in nearly zonal mid level flow. This will bring energy and
some limited 5h height falls to eastern Kentucky starting Sunday
afternoon. Only late Monday does this upper support finally depart
to the east of the state and heights start to rebound. The
shakiness in the model alignment for this part of the country, at
the start of the extended portion of the forecast, limits
confidence in the details of the models and their blends that
comprise the NBM. Needless to say, this period will feature
unsettled weather but no clear and distinct focused time of peak
activity or concern. The ECMWF depicts Monday as the most prone to
widespread convection with heavy rain and the NBM complies with
categorical PoPs and the highest basin average QPF. Given the
reasonableness of this solution, though with lower confidence in
timing and details, the NBM was used as the starting point for the
grids with little adjustment. The main, but minor, changes made
to this initialization were for spot max and min temperature
details as well as some limited terrain effects both nights.

Sensible weather to start the long term portion of the forecast
features an increase in moisture and PWS ahead of a frontal system
easing in from the northwest. This returns the JKL CWA to a threat
for excessive rainfall and flooding potential given antecedent
conditions from the rains of this past couple of days. The
anticipated frontal passage on Monday centers the peak rain and
QPF concerns, though better severe chances may fall on Sunday
afternoon and evening ahead of the deepest column moisture. This
has been captured in the Day 3 Marginal SPC outlook for western
parts of the Cumberland Valley. Ahead of the convective build-up,
temperatures look to reach the mid 80s - helping establish higher
instability that could fuel some stronger storms, though better
upper and synoptic support will likely wait to move into our area
until late at night when this convective fuel is on the wane.
Cooler weather follows for Monday (rain cooled perhaps via
multiple rounds of storms) and Tuesday (new air mass and drier
conditions). Both nights of this period do have an opportunity for
radiational cooling and some terrain effects - early Sunday
night, and late Monday night when moisture is at a minimum for
this time frame - though still higher than normal.

The forecast beyond Tuesday features an anchoring 5h ridge
developing over the Desert Southwest with troughing through the
Great Lakes slowly working east with time - probably keeping
lower 5h heights over eastern Kentucky. The resulting sensible
weather makes things somewhat unsettled with at least some small
shower and storm chances from Wednesday through Friday - mainly
just during the afternoon and early evening hours. Meanwhile, the
extra clouds and pcpn chances keep conditions slightly on the
cool side of normal for late June.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026

There are no changes from the previous forecast discussion.

Valley fog is expected to develop early this morning and grow in
breadth and depth until it dissipates after sunrise. It will bring
localized IFR or worse conditions, and may affect KSME and KLOZ
for a time. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the
period, along with winds light at night and west at less than 10
kts during the daylight hours.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...CMC