Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

065
FXUS63 KJKL 060025 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
825 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread showers and a few storms can be expected tonight
  into Thursday morning, bringing beneficial rainfall to the area.

- Cooler, below normal, temperatures settle in Thursday through
  Friday. Temperatures Thursday night drop into the mid to upper
  30s in valleys, bringing the potential for fog and localized
  patchy frost.

- Periodic chances for showers return for the upcoming weekend
  into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 730 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows a wavy cold front just northwest of the
JKL CWA this evening. A large area of mainly showers is a
associated with this boundary and is starting to brush into
northwest parts of the area. Expect this to encroach more and
overtake eastern Kentucky through the night with some thunder
chances, as well. In the meantime, currently, temperatures are
running in the lower 60s northwest with that rain to the low 70s
in the southeast. Meanwhile, amid southerly winds of 5 to 10 mph,
dewpoints vary from the low 50s west to the mid 40s east. Have
updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends
for the T/Td/Sky grids as well as to fine tune the PoPs and
thunder chances through the night per radar and CAMs guidance.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 243 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026

This afternoon mid and high level clouds continue to work into the
forecast area from the west, as shower chances increase heading into
the evening. This is due to an area of low pressure in the
vicinity of James Bay; straddling the border of Ontario and
Quebec. The surface cold front extends southwest from southern
Quebec (Ottowa), back towards the Lower Great Lakes, through the
Ohio Valley including southern Indiana. This front is evident on
a 18Z surface pressure map, as well as the wind field.

A secondary area of low pressure, located over Central Oklahoma is
expected to propagate northeast through the day and ride along the
cold front of the first mentioned system. Showers and possibly an
embedded rumble of thunder is expected later this afternoon into
the evening, as the cold front nearly stalls over the IL-IN-OH-KY
border. With the area under persistent southwest flow ahead of the
stalled cold front, ample moisture will work into the area.

PWAT in the 12Z BNA sounding was 0.75 inches and model guidance has
PWAT modifying up to 1.25 to 1.50 inches However, given the limited
amount of CAPE (a few hundred Joules), It remains unlikely that
number will be fully realized. Model to model runs of this system
have also been trending downward for rain amounts. As of the 12Z run
of the HREF, the probability of seeing 1 inch of rain through 8 AM
Thursday morning (or now through Wednesday night), remain around 55-
85% along and south of an area extending from Berea to Jackson, to
Prestonsburg. Areas north of this area generally have a less than
15% chance of seeing that much rainfall. The area north of the above
mentioned line has a 20-50% of seeing at least 0.75 inches of
rainfall, and generally a 70-95% chances of seeing 0.50 inches of
rainfall.

The cold front will take its time working through Eastern Kentucky
on Wednesday, and eventually do so later that evening into Thursday.
A shift in winds from southwesterly this afternoon to northerly
through Wednesday will usher in some cooler air. One can expect
afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s with increasing clouds this
afternoon and showers, possibly with embedded thunder anytime after
7-8 PM this evening, increasing overnight and through Wednesday.
Temperatures tonight fall into the lower 50s to upper 50s from north
to south.  Winds will shift from a southerly direction to a
northwesterly direction by tomorrow morning where showers and storms
continue. Temperatures warm into the low 60s to low 70s from north
to south, dropping into the mid 40 to low 50s from north to south in
the evening Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026

There is reasonable agreement in the guidance to begin the long term
period. An upper low near Hudson Bay will be the primary weather
feature affecting the eastern US. This more amplified pattern will
keep our temperatures closer to normal for this time of year and
lead to several chances of rain through the long term period.

Thursday we will see high pressure at the surface creeping in from
the Central US. Meanwhile, an embedded mid-level shortwave will
progress across the Ohio Valley. This will keep a few rain showers
in the forecast to start the day before rain chances dwindle through
the remainder of the day. Then the previously mentioned high
pressure will settle into the Ohio Valley allowing for clearing
skies going into Thursday night. This could lead to some frost or
fog by Friday morning. The frost should be limited to the deeper
more shelter valleys in most cases.

Next embedded shortwave and cold front will push into the Ohio
Valley Friday night into Saturday. This will bring in our next
chances of rain, but right now confidence is on the lower side with
chances of rain generally topping out generally in the 15 to 30
percent range. The best chances of rain will be generally north of
the Mountain Parkway. This as the front weakens as it pushes
across the Ohio Valley combined with lack of better moisture
return. The drier weather Saturday night will be short lived, as a
stronger cold front progresses toward the Ohio Valley Sunday.
This combined with stronger upper level support will aid in better
chances of rain peaking in the 60-70 percent chance range Sunday
night. Sunday will be the warmest day of the period with highs
expected to top out in the mid to upper 70s in warm air advection
pattern ahead of the cold front and even some 80s showing up in
areas south of what looks like a weaker warm front. The NBM is
suggesting that there is around a 50 percent chance of seeing
greater than a half an inch of rainfall in the 48-hour period
ending at 8 AM Tuesday. These lower probabilities could be
attributed to the lower available moisture. Then there is decent
agreement on drier weather for most settling across the area once
again on Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 825 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026

Mid level clouds cover the area now, ahead of an approaching cold
front off to the west. VFR conditions are still holding with this
but expected to deteriorate this evening from west to east with
lowering ceiling heights, as well as increased shower chances.
This will likely drop TAF sites into primarily MVFR conditions
overnight. Closer to 12Z, CIGS will probably fall to IFR and
periodically LIFR before improving after 15Z Wednesday. Winds will
be generally south at 5 to 10 kts this evening but LLWS will
develop tonight from the southwest at up to 45 kts. Sfc winds will
eventually shift to a more northwesterly direction as the front
starts to move through around mid-morning Wednesday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GINNICK/GREIF