Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

467
FXUS63 KJKL 050015 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
715 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The best chances of showers and thunderstorms will stay
  generally north of I-64 through the bulk of the night.

- Temperatures will soar into the upper 70s to lower 80s on
  Friday and Saturday, threatening daily record highs.

- A strong cold front will bring widespread showers and
  thunderstorms on Saturday, some of which could be strong to
  severe.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows the wavy warm front now moving back north
taking the scattered convection along with it. The better chances
for a renewed surge of showers or storms into the area will likely
hold off until after dawn on Thursday. This will leave partly
cloudy skies around tonight along with some patchy valley fog.
Currently, temperatures are quite warm - running in the mid 50s
north to the mid 60s south. Meanwhile, amid light and variable
winds, dewpoints are generally in the moist low to mid 50s. Have
updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends
for the T/Td/Sky grids while fine tuning the PoPs through the
night per the most recent CAMs guidance. These minor adjustments
have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening
of the SAFs and zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 502 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026

A stationary front remains draped over the Ohio River Valley, just
north of Kentucky. Showers and thunderstorms continue along this
boundary and are expected to continue lifting north through the
remaining afternoon and evening hours. Small hail, gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall can be expected with any storms along and
north of I-64 over the next few hours or so. Winds will remain out
of the southwest though sunset, becoming light and of the south
overnight. A temperature gradient has resulted across the area from
the ongoing showers and storms north of I-64. Current conditions see
temperatures ranging from the lower 60s across the north, to mid 70s
south of the Mountain Parkway. This evening, temperatures remain
fairly mild, dropping into the upper 50s to near 60 across Eastern
Kentucky.

Low pressure continues to lift northeast through the Ozarks into the
Ohio Valley. The stationary front will eventually stall out again
over portions of northern Indiana and Ohio. Continued southerly flow
allows for moisture to stream northward into the area. Perturbations
moving through the region will result in shower and thunderstorms
south of the stalled front across the Ohio Valley, and ahead of the
approaching cold front from the west. What this mens for Eastern
Kentucky is scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm chances,
mainly north of the Hal-Rogers/KY Parkway through tonight.

Thursday, chances for showers and storms may peak during daytime
heating in the afternoon. Southern areas are less likely to receive
measurable rainfall. Temperatures will top out in the low to upper
70s, with some areas approaching 80, especially further south.
Temperatures at night hover around 60, as southerly winds and cloud
cover keep the area insulated. Shower chances will begin to lift

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 526 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026

An amplified long wave pattern will continue over the CONUS through
the middle of next week. A positively tilted trough will start out
positioned from central Canada through the eastern Pacific Friday.
A more vigorous short wave trough will curl northeast out of the
Four Corners region, likely interacting with northern stream energy
inbound from south central Canada through Saturday. There is
model spread regarding the surface details, with the GFS showing a
more vigorous low pressure system and cold front, while the ECMWF
is more dialed down. Either way, the majority of this energy will
likely sail well to our northeast, with eastern Kentucky
receiving a more sheared out cold front as it arrives late
Saturday. The boundary will clear the state by early Sunday,
before diminishing to our southeast. Meanwhile, a cutoff low will
be well established across Baja California, with broad troughing
being maintained across northern half of the CONUS. Low level
southwest flow will then recharge across the Ohio and Tennessee
valleys into early next week, with a return of better rain chances
to eastern Kentucky. By Wednesday, the cutoff low will have
transitioned to an open wave, driving a more progressive cold
front towards the area. Details are very murky this far out,
given the complicated set up, so confidence in forecast details is
low at this point.

Sensible weather will feature a likely record-threatening high
temperature day across eastern Kentucky on Friday and possibly
Saturday, although records on Saturday are a bit more stout
compared to Friday. Temperatures will soar into the upper 70s and
lower 80s Friday, with mid to upper 70s to around 80 occurring on
Saturday. PoPs will be lower Friday, as a warm front stays mainly
to our north, with widespread activity returning for Saturday out
ahead of the approaching cold front. There could be stronger
convection on Saturday, with better instability in play, although
with decreasing wind fields by the time this would be maximized,
this misalignment currently forecast would work against this
threat. The cold front will move out Sunday, with drier
conditions expected Sunday night into Monday. Highs will retreat
to mainly the 60s for Sunday, before returning to the 70s, and
possibly lower 80s by early next week once again. A better uptick
in rain chances return to the forecast by Tuesday, with higher
chances seen Wednesday out ahead of the next approaching cold
front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 715 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026

For the 00Z TAF issuance conditions were VFR as the main area of
showers and storms has moved north of the forecast area. Look for
some light fog around at times through the night with a renewed
chance for convection settling back south into the day on
Thursday from west to east. Winds will generally remain light
through the evening, with a potential of LLWS developing later
this evening from the southwest at up to 40 kts and continuing
deep into the night. During the day, Thursday, winds will begin
to pick up at the sfc and gust as high as 20 kts, for most
locations. The remainder of the aviation forecast period will
feature mostly VFR, and occasional MVFR, conditions, though any
thunderstorms could briefly produce IFR conditions through
Thursday afternoon.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...GINNICK/GREIF