Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

596
FXUS63 KJKL 060450 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1150 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue into the
  late night hours, primarily affecting locations north of the
  Mountain Parkway.

- Temperatures will soar into the upper 70s and lower 80s on
  Friday and Saturday, threatening daily record highs. Unusually
  warm overnight lows are also expected.

- Widespread showers and scattered storms will accompany a cold
  front Saturday afternoon and evening. A few storms could become
  strong to severe, with damaging winds as the main threat.

- Unsettled, mild weather persists into next week with additional
  chances for rain and thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1130 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids
along with tweaks to PoPs through dawn based on current radar and
CAMs simulated radar through dawn. These minor adjustments have
been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of
the HWO, SAFs, and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 635 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows a wavy warm front well north of Kentucky
keeping the JKL CWA within the larger weather system`s warm
sector. Despite a fair amount of instability still around this
evening, there is not a strong trigger for storm development so
that just a couple batches of showers are passing through -
generally along and north of the Mountain Parkway. Currently,
temperatures are running near 60 degrees north to the lower 70s
in the south. Meanwhile, amid light southwest winds, dewpoints
are generally in the mid 50s west and in the upper 40s east. Have
updated the forecast to add in the latest obs and trends for the
T/Td/Sky grids but also to include current radar returns and the
near term CAMs outlook for PoPs. These adjustments have been sent
to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs
and zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 328 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026

At current a Bermuda-High is strengthening its influence over the
Atlantic, with a building ridge influencing the Southeast US.
Elsewhere, a shortwave over Illinois will provide showers and storms
to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through today. As this is going on
an upper level trough digs Southeast over Western CONUS.

For sensible weather in Kentucky, as the above mentioned shortwave
lifts into the Ohio Valley, showers and storms riding a stationary
boundary will traverse Eastern Kentucky, diminishing in coverage this
evening. At current, better instability and shear remain closer to
the front, in Central Kentucky. This precip activity is moving in a
northeast direction into the Ohio River Valley. Showers and storms
are generally north of the Kentucky-80/Hal Rogers Parkway and by
00Z/7PM should remain along and north of the Mountain Parkway.
Tonight, persistent southerly winds working around a strengthening
Bermuda-High, will continue to bring warm, moisture rich air
poleward, into the region. As a result temperatures tonight will
challenge established record high minimums (warm low temperatures),
as JKL(Jackson Airport) has a forecasted low of 60 for this evening,
which could break the record of 57 set back in 2022. In fact, much
of Eastern Kentucky may remain in the upper 50s to near 60 through
this evening.

Friday, record warmth remains the main story, as persistent
southerly winds and rising heights allow for temperatures to soar
into the upper 70s to low 80s across the area. From Michigan down to
Florida, and back over to Louisiana, at least 40 airport records
will be in play. KLOZ (London Airport) KJKL (Jackson Airport), and
even KLEX (Lexington Airport in LMK`s forecast area) all flirt with
breaking record highs tomorrow. The ECMWF EFI table, focusing on a
20 year, 5-week average centered around this week, depicts that
model output for this week falls within the 90th to 95th percentile.
This means that its pushing climatological maxes(should since we`re
forecasting near record highs). In general, most of the are should
remain dry. Areas north of the Mountain Parkway do hang onto a
scattered shower and thunderstorm chance during the afternoon. The
15Z run of the RAP had a decent CAPE values across the forecast area
of 400-1300 J/kg, but the 18Z run came in with less. Additionally, a
lack of forcing, and dry mid levels (40-50%) will make it
challenging for storms to become well organized. If storms were to
form they would be pulse or popcorn like storms lasting a short
duration with limited vertical depth. DCAPE values of 700J/kg in
some model soundings suggest that if under a collapsing core, winds
could become gusty and erratic, though no damaging winds are
expected at this time.

Friday night, skies clear some, with light southerly winds.
Temperatures are forecasted to drop into the low 60s in the
valleys and mid to upper 60s along ridge tops. This will again
create a scenario where record high minimums (warm low
temperatures) will be in play. The previously mentioned EFI index
from the ECMWF has forecasted temperatures in the area approaching
the 95th to 99th percentiles in places. At the Jackson Airport, a
forecasted low of 68 would break the previously set record of 60
from 1983.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 419 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026

A May-like weather pattern will continue across eastern Kentucky
through the middle of next week. The long-term period will kick off
on a very warm and unsettled note on Saturday morning as anomalous
upper-level ridging lingers along the Atlantic Seaboard and a cold
front approaches from the northwest. Model agreement is initially
good, showing an ~995 mb surface low pressure over Lake Superior
with a cold front extending south-southwest to over the Ozarks and
then southwest into the West Texas Plains. This low is situated
ahead of a 500 hPa shortwave trough ejecting northeast across the
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, while the remainder of the
parent upper-level trough is retrograding southward and closing
off into a low over the Lower Colorado Basin.

The shortwave trough over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
will continue lifting northeast on Saturday and Saturday night,
becoming captured by another trough digging into Southeastern
Canada. The associated surface low will continue to race
northeast to near Labrador by late Saturday evening. Meanwhile,
its trailing cold front lays out southwest to northeast and stalls
southeast of the Ohio River while its upper-level support is
sheared away into Eastern Canada. As that front approaches eastern
Kentucky Saturday afternoon, mid-level lapse rates remain weak
(less than or equal to 6.5 C/km). As a result, modeled instability
is fairly skinny and should limit overall updraft vigor. If low
clouds remain stubborn, surface heating and resulting
destabilization may be further reduced. For now, the greatest
opportunity for severe weather appears to be focused from
northeastern Kentucky up into the middle and Upper Ohio Valley,
where sunshine is favored to prevail the longest and mid-level
lapse rates may be slightly more favorable. The most likely window
for any severe weather is between 18Z and 00Z, with damaging wind
gusts being the primary threat. Convection and instability should
then wane Saturday evening and night with the loss of diurnal
heating. Quasi-zonal flow develops over the Ohio Valley region as
the actual cold front slowly settles across eastern Kentucky
Sunday morning amidst fading thermodynamic and kinematic support.
There could be a brief resurgence in convection over far
southeastern Kentucky on Sunday afternoon if the frontal passage
is slower, but the parameter space does not appear favorable for
anything beyond garden-variety storms.

The stalled lingering baroclinic zone will pivot more east-west
on Sunday and then gradually retreat back to the north on Monday
and Tuesday as 500 hPa heights slowly rebound aloft and the closed
500 hPa low (over Baja California late Sunday) begins to drift
eastward. This low will gradually be captured by the westerlies
heading into mid-week and then reopen into a trough as it ejects
eastward and potentially interacts with a developing northern
stream trough. This will likely support another low pressure
system passing north of the forecast area around Wednesday
followed by a trailing sharp cold front. While modeled shear is
sufficient for severe convection, significant differences in the
front`s timing and pre-frontal instability leave forecaster
certainty of the details low. With that being said, AI ECMWF and
GEFS convective hazards forecasts do indicate at least marginal
probabilities of severe weather.

In sensible terms, look for any morning sunshine on Saturday to
gradually give way to increasing clouds and a rising shower and
thunderstorm threat (80 to 100 percent chance). A few storms could
become strong to severe, with damaging winds being the primary
concern. It will still be very warm, with highs forecast to range in
the upper 70s for most and in the lower 80s in the deeper valleys east
of the Pottsville Escarpment. It will also be breezy with
southwesterly gusts of 20 to 30 mph. For Saturday night and Sunday,
look for showers and any thunderstorms to gradually diminish from
northwest to southeast, yielding to cooler but still mild temperatures
for this time of year. Sunday`s forecast highs range from the
lower 60s north to near 70F southeast. A warming trend then ensues
from Monday through Wednesday, bringing a threat of showers and
thunderstorms on Monday (20 to 40 percent chance) and Tuesday (50
to 70 percent chance). More widespread activity (70 to 80 percent
chance) is probable on Wednesday into Thursday. Temperatures
could once again flirt with daily record highs on Wednesday in the
upper 70s to lower 80s before dropping back to near or below
normal behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026

For the 06Z TAF issuance, VFR conditions were found at all the
main terminals though another batch of scattered showers is
working east - generally along and north of the Mountain Parkway.
Look for KIOB and KSYM to be the locations most prone to be
impacted by showers overnight. A thunderstorm is possible, as
well. Light southwesterly winds will be the norm through the
overnight hours - away from any convection. Winds will then be
generally from the southwest at 7 to 12 kts on Friday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...GREIF