Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

267
FXUS63 KJKL 070828
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
328 AM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow showers and isolated squalls will move through
  tonight. Most areas will see less than half an inch of
  accumulation, leading to scattered slippery road conditions.

- Higher snow totals of up to two inches are expected over the
  higher elevations near the Virginia border through daybreak
  Saturday.

- Arctic chill returns tonight with temperatures plunging into the
  upper single digits and teens. Highs will only reach the 20s on
  Saturday.

- A dramatic warming trend begins Sunday. Temperatures will climb
  to the mid 50s to mid 60s Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1125 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026

Grids as well as well as SPS and WSW statements have been updated
to account for drizzle or freezing drizzle mixed with light snow
initially ahead of the arctic front for the next couple of hours.
As the column gradually cools, the precipitation type should
transition to all snow. This scenario will continue to be
monitored.

UPDATE Issued at 945 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026

The area of light snow or snow showers that was expected to
develop has begun to take shape in locations near and north of the
Mountain Parkway during the past half an hour to an hour as an
arctic cold front approaches. These should shift south across
eastern KY over the next several hours. Accumulations are
generally expected to be minor, but as temperatures fall
overnight, slippery travel could develop. The SPS was resent
through around 4 AM EST for all counties not in the Winter Weather
Advisory along the VA border while the Winter Weather Advisory
remains in effect through 7 AM EST for Pike, Harlan, and Letcher
counties.

UPDATE Issued at 710 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026

Hourly grids were freshened up based on recent observation
trends. This led to no substantial changes at this time. Snow
showers are still expected to develop over the next few hours and
affect portions of the region as the arctic boundary nears.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 401 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026

Cloudy, cool, and damp conditions linger across most areas east
of I-75 this afternoon with temperatures ranging mainly in the
30s. However, milder temperatures in the 40s to near 50 are noted
in the vicinity of Lake Cumberland. The period of snow and mixed
precipitation from earlier in the day has dropped southeast of the
area with associated developing triple point low now departing
through southwest Virginia. Cold air advection is ongoing as winds
veer northwest behind that system, so cooler air is already
filtering south of the Ohio River. Farther upstream, a secondary
cold front, trailing behind a low over southern Quebec, is
dropping south across the Lower Michigan Peninsula and Wisconsin.

Northwesterly breezes will gradually take hold area-wide this
evening, pulling temperatures back down to around the freezing
mark across the area, though any further impacts will be minimal
until the arrival of the secondary cold front late this evening.
The front itself has very little moisture originating with it, but
hi-res guidance is fairly consistent, noting the potential for
low-level moisture to stream off of Lake Michigan and organize in
one or more lines of snow showers with the boundary`s passage.
While the parameter space is not ideal, the RAP13 does show some
Snow Squall Parameter values exceeding 1, suggesting that there is
at least a low-end threat for an isolated snow squall or two as
well with the strong low-level forcing right along the cold
front. The primary concern with these snow showers would be for
slippery travel conditions in those areas where roads become snow-
covered or liquid moisture lingers long enough to freeze, though
anticipate any impacts to be scattered due to the showery nature
of the precipitation. Any snow accumulations from these squalls
and snow showers will generally be under half an inch. The one
exception is in the Winter Weather Advisory area (Pike, Harlan,
and Letcher counties), where additional amounts of up to 1 inch
are expected at lower elevations and up to 2 inches at elevations
above 2,000 feet through 7 AM Saturday, courtesy of orographic
enhancement.

Behind that boundary, 925 hPa temperatures tumble to around -15C
by daybreak Saturday and only moderate very slowly back to between
0 and -10C by 12z Sunday as the persistent upper level troughing
of recent weeks finally starts to pull away. The associated
height rises will support surface high pressure becoming
established over the Ohio Valley on Saturday, calming the north
breeze but promising a cold and partly cloudy Saturday night.
Temperatures for tonight should range mainly in the 10s, except
into the upper single digits north of I-64. Cold temperatures
follow on Saturday with highs only in the 20s, despite skies
becoming mostly sunny. With good conditions for efficient
radiative cooling in place on Saturday night, minimum
temperatures in the single digits can be expected in the eastern
valleys with low to mid 10s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 327 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026

Sunday night, a combination of light winds, clearing skies, mostly
clear skies (at least to start the night), and lingering snow/ice
pack will allow for temperatures to drop into the teens to mid 20s.
NBM provided a decent starting point, however local terrain under
these conditions can result in a 5-10 degree difference from valley
and ridgetop locations. These adjustments have been made.

Monday, light surface winds will become southerly through the day,
aligning with 500-mb height rises aloft. In turn, warm air will
advect in through the day, leading to temperatures warming into the
mid to upper 40s in the northeast, and mid to upper 50s in the
southwest. Monday night will be warmer than Sunday night, though
similar in the way ridge-valley spits are expected to occur under
light southerly winds, clearing skies, and remaining snow/ice pack.
Temperatures will generally be in the upper 20s to lower 30s in the
valleys, with mid to upper 30s along ridgetops.

Tuesday, a low in the southwest begins to progress eastward across
Mexico and Texas. The system approaches the Mid-Mississippi Valley
late Tuesday. The area will continue to see warm air advecting in,
ahead of showers later that evening and overnight. Temperatures are
expected to warm into the upper 50s to mid 60s across Eastern
Kentucky on Tuesday. Shower chances remain overnight Tuesday through
Wednesday, as the system passes through the area. Overnight lows
will generally range anywhere from the low to mid 40s.

Towards the later half of the week (Thursday onward), the wave that
previously moved into the area, weakens and stalls a bit. Meanwhile,
an upper-level trough passing through the Ohio valley will bring an
end to the warming trend, with some cooler air moving back into
parts of Kentucky. It bares mentioning that these cooler conditions
are still warmer than what we`ve just experienced. Models and
ensembles are hinting that the next active period of active weather
could be around the end of the week, we`ll just have to monitor how
far south that cooler air across the Ohio Valley works down.
For nor, temperatures are generally expected to remain in the 40 or
low 50s during the day, with lows around 30 at night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026

At issuance time, reductions ranged from IFR from near KJKL to
KSJS and points south, with a mixture of MVFR and VFR elsewhere.
A mixture of snow, drizzle, and freezing drizzle was observed
from the radar returns across the region, with sub VFR reductions
in this activity. This precipitation is occurring along and in
advance of a secondary cold front dropping south into the
Commonwealth. Winds ranged between west southwest and northwest at
generally 10KT or less. Snow showers mixed with drizzle and
freezing drizzle are anticipated during the first few hours of the
period, before the precipitation tapers off by the 10Z to 12Z
timeframe. Once the precipitation tapers off, the sub VFR ceilings
should trend to VFR in all areas. Winds behind the boundary
should trend more northerly, with gusts up to around 20KT. North
to northwest winds linger from 12Z to 00Z with these gradually
slackening toward 00Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for KYZ088-
118-120.


&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JP