Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

816
FXUS63 KJKL 072112 CCA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
512 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Clear skies, light winds, and overnight lows in the mid to upper
  30s favor the development of patchy frost in sheltered hollows
  and patchy fog in the river valleys tonight.

- A warming trend begins Friday with afternoon highs returning to
  the mid 70s to low 80s by Sunday.

- Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms return to the
  area this weekend, with the greatest chances on Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 253 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026

Quiet weather is expected through the short term period. A shallow
cu field has developed behind a departing cold front but should
dissipate this evening with the loss of diurnal heating. Clear skies
and light northerly winds will result in patchy areas of fog,
especially along the main stem river valleys. However, with drier
air moving into the area from the northwest, dew points have dropped
some into the upper 30s to low 40s. There was some thought that if
these dew points fall below freezing that patchy areas of frost
formation would be possible. If this occurs, frost would be confined
to the most rural sheltered hollows and not the main stream river
valleys. Conditions were marginal enough where JKL and surrounding
offices coordinated in not issuing a frost advisory but rather an SPS
for the potential for patchy areas of frost. Those who have
sensitive plants outdoors may want to consider protecting them.
Temperatures cool into the mid to upper 30s in valley locations and
upper 30s to low 40s along ridge tops.

Elsewhere, a surface low propagates east out of the Wyoming/Colorado
area into the Central Plains before reaching the Great Lakes and
Ohio River Valley sometime Friday. As Eastern Kentucky sits under
high pressure to start the day, folks can expect mostly sunny skies
through morning, with light southwesterly winds, and temperatures
warming into the low 70s. Cloud cover will increase through the
afternoon heading into the evening. The low pressure will bring
showers chances, to areas mainly north of the I-64 corridor through
Saturday morning ahead of the systems cold front. With increased
cloud cover and southerly winds, temperatures Friday night are

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 430 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

The beginning of the long term forecast period is marked by the
approach of a weak frontal boundary. A few showers may be ongoing
north of the Mountain Parkway when the period opens on Saturday
morning, but the environment will be more hostile to sustained
activity the further southeast it tracks into our CWA. Model
soundings demonstrate a layer of very dry air in the atmospheric
column over SE KY, and this gets reinforced by a pronounced
subsidence inversion on Saturday afternoon. The boundary`s upper
level support ejects east and abandons it around this same
time frame. Thus, while some remnant cloud cover and perhaps some
sprinkles will drift through the region on Saturday, the day does not
look like a total washout. The greatest chances for measurable
precipitation on Saturday will come in the NE half of the forecast
area, and even then, the lack of strong forcing and the dry air will
relegate QPF to a few hundredths of an inch. While Saturday`s
temperatures could trend a little bit cooler if precipitation and
cloud cover begin to outperform current expectations, highs are
forecast to peak in the mid 70s under partly cloudy skies that
afternoon.

Surface high pressure briefly builds back into the region on
Saturday night, setting up a night of ridge-valley temperature
splits. The lack of true cold air advection behind Saturday`s
boundary keeps modeled temperatures at seasonable values in the
50s, but clearing skies and light winds should yield efficient
radiational cooling. After sunset, valleys cool into the 40s and
approach the antecedent dewpoint temperatures. Given this set up and
the potential for recently wet grounds, patchy river valley fog was
added to Saturday night`s grids with this afternoon`s forecast
package. Ridgetops and western locales will be relatively warmer
thanks to light west-southwesterly winds, with MinTs in the low to
mid 50s. Some of today`s MOS guidance is more aggressive with the
magnitude of these ridge-valley splits, and if that persists, future
packages may feature 10-15 degree terrain-based temperature
differences on Saturday night.

Sunday looks to be the warmest day in the forecast period, with
temperatures climbing towards the upper half of the 70s after the
sun comes out. This warmer air supports more widespread shower and
thunderstorm chances ahead of a better defined frontal passage on
Sunday night. LREF mean PWATs climb to readings just above the 1
inch mark across the entire commonwealth on Sunday evening, which is
about a quarter of an inch higher than the day prior. Thus, more
places across the forecast area should experience measurable
rainfall on Sunday than on Saturday. The greatest precipitation
chances arrive overnight into Monday, when instability will be at
diurnal minimums. Widespread severe weather appears unlikely as a
result, but generic thunderstorms will be possible. The highest
rain totals will come wherever these individual storm cells track,
but there is a 50-60% chance for a wetting rainfall (>0.10
inches) across the entire forecast by 8am Monday.

There will be more noticeable cold air advection behind Sunday
night`s frontal passage, and Monday is subsequently poised to be the
coolest day of the forecast period. Highs will struggle to warm
above the mid 60s as vertically stacked northwesterly flow advects a
drier continental airmass into the forecast area. Models
collectively resolve a deeper midlevel trough axis over the forecast
area on Monday afternoon, so this NW flow regime looks to continue
overnight into Tuesday. With a postfrontal high in place at the
surface, Monday night`s sensible weather will likely be elevation
dependent. Depending on how wet grounds are from the previous day`s
activity, the nocturnal radiational fog could be more widespread
than it was earlier in the period. This is not currently included in
the forecast grids, but may make an appearance in future packages.
Given the progressive nature of the overarching synoptic pattern,
winds are progged to steadily shift to a more southerly orientation
by Tuesday night. MaxTs are accordingly forecast to rise to the
upper 60s on Tuesday afternoon and then the 70s area wide on
Wednesday. This midweek warming trend coincides with the arrival of
the next shortwave troughing disturbance in the Ohio River Valley.
Therefore, shower and thunderstorm chances re-enter the forecast on
Tuesday and Wednesday, although uncertainty regarding the evolution
of the parent impulse relegates these PoPs to the 30-50% range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026

A shallow cu field has developed creating some low end VFR decks
but will then dissipate this evening with the loss of diurnal
heating. For tonight, high pressure cresting over the area will
lead to light winds and clear skies. Fog formation is probable in
the deeper river valleys but impacts are not currently expected at
the TAF sites.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GINNICK