Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

425
FXUS63 KJKL 302355 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
655 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A dry and fluffy snow event continues into Saturday, primarily
  across southeastern Kentucky. Highest accumulations are expected
  near the KY-VA border.

- Cold weather lasts through the weekend, with at least a brief
  warming trend following early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows deep low pressure passing to the southeast
of Kentucky with its snow shield stretched back northwest into
southeast parts of this state. This has a sharp edge to the
snowfall and as a result we were able to take Rockcastle Jackson
County out of the advisory this evening. The rest of the area will
see the snow continue with some backbuilding anticipated on its
fringes through the rest of the evening. Currently, temperatures
are running in the upper teens northwest to the mid 20s in the far
southeast. Meanwhile, amid north to northeast winds of 5 to 10
mph, dewpoints range from the low single digits northwest to the
low 20s in the southeast. Have updated the forecast mainly to add
in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
an earlier freshening of the HWO and zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 454 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026

Regional radar shows a band of light snow continuing across
southeastern Kentucky late this afternoon, roughly southeast of a
line from Pikeville to Jackson to Eubank. Just some mid and high
clouds are found farther northwest. Temperatures remain cold, just
like recent days, with readings ranging in the 20s at lower
elevations. Aloft, a positively-tilted, high amplitude 500 hPa
trough extends southwestward from a parent low over the Canadian
Atlantic Provinces to near Kansas City, MO. Meanwhile, a
disorganized, weak area of low pressure and a subtle upper level
disturbance are passing along the Gulf Coast en route to the
Atlantic Seaboard. The weak band of snow is due to weak
frontogenesis between these two systems. Strong ~1046 mb surface
high pressure, centered along the Manitoba/US border, attends an
extensive frigid air mass across the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes.

The two primary concerns during the short-term will be the
ongoing threat of accumulating snow tonight into Saturday across
southeastern Kentucky and the return of frigid wind chills.
Beginning with the snow threat, guidance shows the frontogenetic
banding becoming more parallel to the KY-VA border this
evening/tonight. The band is expected to strengthen again for a
time overnight as forcing increases ahead of the northern stream
upper level trough digging deeply/closing off over the Mid-
Mississippi Valley. That band will then gradually pull away to the
east on Saturday as the upper low dives toward the
Carolina/Georgia coast, supporting a powerful low pressure system
developing along the coast. The snowfall from this band should
become mainly confined to the two tiers of counties adjacent to
the KY-VA border this evening and persist into Saturday before
tapering. The heaviest and most persistent snowfall is expected to
occur from northeastern Harlan to southern Pike County. Ensemble
probabilities, such as the 12z HREF, showed greater than an 80
percent chance of at least 4 inches of fluffy snowfall occurring
across significant portions of Pike, Letcher, and Harlan counties,
justifying the issuance of a Winter Storm Warning.

As that upper level trough drops in from the north, we will also
see a much colder air mass filtering into the Coalfields on a
brisk northerly breeze, sending 925 hPa temperatures falling to
near or below -15C by dawn Saturday. This will support minimum
temperatures in the single digits to lower teens tonight, which
combined with winds of 5 to 10 mph will support apparent
temperatures dipping to between 0 and 10 below for many places.
The Cold Weather Advisory has been expanded across the Cumberland
River Basin where the Cold Weather Advisory criteria is weaker,
and also across more open, flatter counties adjacent to the
Bluegrass farther north. The cold temperatures should ease back
above criteria thresholds by midday Saturday, but it will likely
stay cold with high temperatures only in the 10s.

A layer of shallow low-level moisture is expected to spread
across the area Saturday afternoon and evening ahead of a vort
lobe and the core of the coldest 850 hPa air mass. Thus, a renewed
threat for flurries and even a few light snow showers can be
expected for much of Saturday evening and night. The northerly
flow direction will be favorable for some upslope lifting, but
with the shallow moisture, anticipate only a trace to maybe a few
tenths of high SLR fluff. Best chances for measurable snowfall
amounts will be in those counties near/adjacent to the KY-VA
border.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 416 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026

Intense surface low pressure should be well off the NC coast at the
start of the period, and pulling away to the northeast, as surface
ridging builds toward us from the west. In between these two
features, upslope flow containing low level moisture and steep lapse
rates in the DGZ will probably result in ongoing flurries for at
least the southeast portion of the forecast area. However, with the
moisture being shallow, it shouldn`t amount to much more than that,
and it will be tapering off as warming/drying occurs beneath a steep
inversion during the day Sunday. Low clouds will then decrease
during the day.

Light winds will favor valleys decoupling from the low level flow on
Sunday night. Models suggest clouds lowering and thickening for our
southwest counties during the night, which would limit radiating
there. Our remaining locations stand a better shot at good radiating
conditions with fewer clouds, which could result in very cold
temperatures again for valleys, while developing warm air advection
once the ridge departs would keep ridges milder.

Warm air advection persists on Monday ahead of a cold front. Its
associated clouds passing over during the day will probably bring
virga. Models are suggesting the deeper moisture aloft will dry up
about the time low levels moisten enough to allow for precip. At
this point a few flurries may be forecast with a sub-20% POP. The
weakening cold front is expected to make it to KY Monday night under
northwest flow aloft. However, a combination of a southern stream
shortwave coming out of the southwest CONUS and a series of northern
shortwaves diving southeast into an eastern CONUS trough will work
to pull the large scale eastern CONUS upper trough a bit westward.
This flattens our flow aloft and also promotes surface low
development over the souther plains. That combination stalls the
front probably over or just south of KY on Tuesday. Warm air
advection/isentropic lift ahead of the approaching frontal wave and
in advance of a shortwave trough could bring precipitation on
Tuesday and/or Tuesday night. Temperatures look marginal for rain
vs. snow in a north/south gradient over the area, but any precip
shouldn`t be very heavy.

After this point, model solutions start to show more variation in
timing/location of shortwaves and surface systems. A blend of models
being used yields a forecast (including precip potential) which can
be expected to change. Both the GFS and ECMWF have very cold air
making a comeback by next weekend.&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 117 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026

A frontogenetically-forced band of light snow has developed mostly
south of the Mountain Parkway, and will gradually subside toward
the KY-VA border this afternoon and tonight. Cigs will likely not
get any lower than MVFR, but viz reductions to IFR or worse, at
least briefly, will be possible within heavier bursts of snow.
Winds will generally be northeast to north at 5 to 10 kts through
the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 655 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026

AA band of light snow continues roughly 10 to 20 miles south of
the Mountain Parkway, and will gradually subside toward the KY-VA
border this evening. CIGs will likely not get any lower than
MVFR, but VIS reductions to IFR or worse, at least briefly, will
be possible within heavier bursts of snow - likely increasingly
confined to terminals southeast of the TAF sites. Winds will
generally be northeast to north at 5 to 10 kts through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to noon EST Saturday for KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>087-104-106.

Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM EST Saturday for KYZ079-080-
083-084-109-112-114-119.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Saturday for KYZ085>087-
110-113-115>117.

Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM EST Saturday for KYZ088-118-120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF