Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

515
FXUS63 KJKL 181140 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
640 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A dry cold front passing through later tonight will lock in the
  colder temperatures for eastern Kentucky with single digits lows
  expected for most places Monday night.

- Temperatures averaging 10 to 20 degrees below normal will be in
  place over the area through Tuesday night.

- The next chance for snow will come on Wednesday night, although
  accumulation potential appears limited.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 445 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2026

09Z sfc analysis shows the latest cold front now east of Kentucky
taking its band of light snow and flurries along with it. This
has left some mid level clouds eroding from west to east and is
bringing in colder temperatures on light northwest winds.
Currently, temperatures vary from the mid teens in the northwest
to the mid 20s southeast. Meanwhile, dewpoints are generally in
the single digits north to mid teens southwest.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in good
agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast.
They all depict the 5h trough axis passing through eastern
Kentucky this morning as we remain near the base of a large trough
over the North American continent. Locally, the mid level flow
becomes zonal for a brief time before speeding up and turning
more northwesterly bringing in more mid level energy at the base
of the dominant trough. This fast mid-level flow will continue
overhead into the day Monday, though the better energy stays to
the north of the state. The small spread among the models
supported using the NBM as the starting point of the forecast
grids with some adjustments needed to include more terrain details
for temperatures tonight, as well as beefing up the winds with
the next cold front - passing dryly later tonight.

Sensible weather features a cold end to the extended holiday
weekend. This night`s cold front has brought in this colder air
mass that will only be reinforced through the next 48 hours.
Temperatures will struggle to climb to near 30 degrees in the
north and 35 degrees in the south today despite plenty of
sunshine. Along with some passing clouds tonight, another
distinct, but dry, cold front moves through the area amid breezy
winds becoming northwesterly in its wake. This keeps a strong
negative anomaly for temperatures in place through Monday, and
beyond, as daytime temperatures again struggle to get too far
into the 20s northwest and lower 30s southeast - with much colder
readings on tap for that night.

The changes to the NBM starting point primarily consisted of
including more terrain details for temperatures tonight along
with increasing the winds and gusts accompanying the front
passing later tonight.

.LONG TERM...(After midnight Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 620 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

Quiet, but bitterly cold, sensible weather is expected at the
beginning of the long term forecast period in Eastern Kentucky. Cold
air advection and clearing skies in the wake of Monday`s FROPA favor
efficient radiational cooling overnight, and much of the area is
poised to experience minimum temperatures in the single digits.
Monday night`s low temperatures are 15-20 degrees colder than
climatological averages for mid January, but confidence in exceeding
cold weather advisory criteria is low. Winds are generally forecast
to decrease in magnitude as a surface pressure system nudges into
the commonwealth overnight. The coldest thermometer readings may not
overlap with the strongest winds, and MinT guidance actually ticked
a bit upwards in the most recent model runs. Subzero apparent
temperatures are most likely in the open valleys of the Bluegrass
region and atop the highest mountains, but widespread, prolonged
wind chills below -5 degrees are not anticipated. Regardless of
headline product issuance, it is going to be very cold outside
during the Tuesday morning commute. Interests with outdoor plans in
this time frame are encouraged to review cold weather preparedness
information at www.weather.gov/safety/cold.

Under the influence of the aforementioned surface high pressure
system, skies will remain mostly clear on Tuesday. However, the
persistence of cool, cyclonic flow around the broad longwave
troughing aloft will keep afternoon temperatures similar to the day
prior. Expect another day of highs in the 20s across northern
counties and highs in the 30s further to the south. Low level
flow will gradually back towards the south as the day progresses,
favoring relatively "warmer" temperatures on Tuesday night. Expect
ridge- valley temperature splits under mostly clear skies, with
cooler valleys in the teens and warmer ridgetops closer to 20
degrees.

The pattern looks to become more active by midweek, and we are
closely monitoring the potential for some wintery precipitation on
Wednesday night. Southwesterly return flow will yield increasing
temperatures and increasing cloud cover throughout the day on
Wednesday before a passing low pressure system drags a cold front
across the forecast area on Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. Temperatures ahead of that boundary will be in the 40s,
which supports precipitation beginning as rain. However,
thermodynamic cooling processes and a post-frontal cold air
advection regime should allow precipitation to mix with and then
change over to snow. The lack of deep moisture and the quick-
moving nature of the parent system will limit accumulation
potential, but a slushy coating on elevated surfaces and in high-
terrain locations cannot be ruled out.

Another post-frontal high is expected to build into the region on
Thursday, then propagate off the the east on Friday morning. Beyond
then, model solutions begin to diverge. The amount of moisture
return and the degree of temperature moderation on the backside of
this high is uncertain, as is the evolution of the the governing
mid/upper level synoptics late in the period. All of these details
will play a large role in determining what precipitation types and
accumulations (if any) may impact the area with a potential late-
period storm system. The lack of model consensus currently precludes
the mention of specific forecast details, including timing, although
precip chances generally increase headed into the weekend. We will
be closely monitoring ensemble trends and probabilistic data for
Friday and beyond over the coming days, so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, though a passing
cold front late tonight may bring a deck of mid level clouds to
the area for a time. Winds will generally be westerly around 5
kts or less until ~ 18Z when they become more southwesterly
through 06Z increasing to near 10 kts - turning northwesterly
late.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...GREIF