Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

146
FXUS63 KJKL 241200 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
800 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry weather is expected for most of the day.

- Showers are likely from this evening/tonight into Saturday,
  with a few general thunderstorms possible.

- A stronger system brings another chance for widespread showers
  and storms late Monday into Tuesday, but the severe weather
  potential is still uncertain in Eastern Kentucky.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 730 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 430 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026

08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure off to the southeast of
Kentucky while low pressure and its fronts are approaching from
well to the west. This pattern has kept the skies mostly clear
this night while also making for light and variable winds - great
radiational cooling conditions. As a result, a moderate ridge to
valley temperature split has set up so that readings currently
range from the mid and upper 40s in those sheltered spots to the
upper 50s and lower 60s on ridges and the more open terrain.
Meanwhile, dewpoints are generally in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in good
agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast.
They all depict a weakening 5h ridge over Kentucky surrounded by
large and deep troughs to the northwest and northeast. This omega
block-like structure breaks down into the weekend when the
northeast trough pulls away to the east allowing some local
troughing and mid-level energy to slip into Kentucky during the
day, Saturday. Meanwhile, the northwest trough lifts mainly to the
north eventually allowing ridging to rebuild over the western
Ohio Valley. At the same time, to the south, fast mid-level flow
stretches from west to east off the Pacific into the Southern
Plains through the weekend. On account of the decent agreement of
the models, the NBM was used as the starting point for the grids.
The main adjustments made to the initialization were to
incorporate details from the latest higher resolution CAMs for
PoPs and thunder chances through Saturday yielding a more refined
picture for the hourly weather forecast though the first part of
the weekend.

Sensible weather features a cold front weakening as it approaches
the area from the west, today. This boundary moves into eastern
Kentucky late this afternoon and brings a threat of much needed
showers and possible thunderstorms into the night. Residency of
the front may allow for some soaking rains for a good portion of
the JKL CWA - especially southeast. The front stays nearby on
Saturday, and with some upper support, we expect scattered to
numerous showers and storms to develop - bringing more beneficial
rains to parts of the area. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure and
drier air to the north will press south by evening limiting the
better convection chances and longer duration rains to the
southeast parts of the state. Look for one more warmer than normal
day to close out the work week before the clouds and rain push
temperatures down to more normal for Saturday - after mild and
fairly uniform conditions tonight.

The changes to the NBM starting point mainly consisted of
including timing and coverage details for the PoP and thunder
grids on account of the latest CAMs guidance through Saturday
evening. In this increasingly moist environment, temperatures and
dewpoints were kept mostly as populated from the NBM aside from
the linger terrain based cool spots this morning.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026

Late Saturday evening there is a slight chance of lingering showers
along the KY-VA-WV borders, as a system continues to depart the
area. Otherwise, clearing skies under light northerly winds may
result in patchy areas of fog through early Sunday morning.
Temperatures will likely remain split between the cooler decoupled
valleys in the upper 40s, to ridge tops in the low to mid 50s.

Some ridging will still remain across portions of the Ohio Valley
through Sunday. This will lead to remaining mostly dry. Some
isolated shower chances will develop along the Tennessee-Kentucky
border ahead of an approaching warm front. During the day, another
area of low pressure will lift north out of the Southern Plains into
the Central Plains. As the system evolves, the trough becomes
negatively tilted over the Mississippi Valley. The evolution of the
frontal passage in respect to a potential 40-50 knot LLJ is worth
watching. This could be the areas second crack at needed area wide
rainfall. A series of weaker frontal passages could lead to
scattered shower and storm chances Wednesday Thursday, and Friday.

Temperatures generally range from the upper 70s to low 80s through
the extended period, with lows generally remaining in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026

VFR conditions will hold through the first couple of periods of
the 12Z TAF cycle, then after 00Z Saturday some PROB30 groups
have been added to the northern and western sites for low chances
of showers and/or thunderstorms, with MVFR or lower conditions
possible if the convection hits any of those terminals. By 06Z
Saturday we have PROB30s for showers at all sites through dawn.

Light and variable winds will carry the first part of the morning
before increasing into the 6 to 12 kt range, sustained, from the
southwest toward 15Z, with a few gusts reaching to 20 kts in the
afternoon - during peak mixing. These winds will settle again to
light and variable this evening, though possibly higher in and
around convection.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GREIF