Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

124
FXUS63 KJKL 282315
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
715 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Valley locations generally near and east of I-75 are forecast to
  experience sub-freezing temperatures late tonight into early
  Sunday morning.

- Temperatures warm on Sunday as south to southwest flow begins.
  However, low to very low relative humidity, dry fuels, and gusts
  into the 15 to 25 mph range will result in High Fire Danger.

- Significant warming occurs in the upcoming week, with the
  potential for several consecutive days in the 70s to perhaps
  lower 80s for highs, along with mild overnight lows in the 40s
  to lower 60s.

- A trend towards a more active weather pattern is looking to take
  shape during the middle to second half of next week. More
  significant and widespread rainfall is possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 715 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026

The forecast is on track with no significant changes needed with
the early evening update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 430 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026

Late this afternoon, the axis of an upper level trough extended
from east of Hudson Bay/Quebec to the Northeast to esat of the
eastern seaboard. Meanwhile an upper level ridge was centered over
the Southern Plains/Rio Grand Valley vicinity with ridging
extending north into portions of the Rockies/High Plains. Further
west an upper level low/trough was nearing the BC and Pacific
Northwest coast. Westerly/rather zonal flow extended from the west
coast to the Central Conus with west northwest to northwest flow
aloft in place across the OH Valley to Southern Appalachians. At
the surface, a ridge of high pressure was centered over OH with
ridging southwest to northeast TX and also east to the eastern
seaboard and south along the eastern seaboard. The airmass in
place is dry with 1000-500 mb layer rh analyzed in the 15 to 25
percent range yielding plenty of sunshine. As for PW, recent PW
was analyzed in the sub 0.20 range per SPC mesoanalysis and per
12Z HREF mean on the order of 0.12 to 0.19 or the 1st to 6th
percentile compared to climatology for this time of year. Min RH
so far this afternoon has been in the upper teens to mid 20s
percent range for most of the area with elevations above 3500
feet and generally west of the Pottsville escarpment in roughly
the 25 to 30 percent range. This dry airmass ushered in by the
high with widespread dewpoints in the teens to low 20s will set
the stage for another rather chilly late March night.

Tonight into Sunday, a gradual increase in 500 mb heights is
anticipated as the upper level trough axis currently east of the
Commonwealth/Southern Appalachians departs to the north and
northeast with zonal mainly westerly flow aloft across most of the
Conus east of the Great Basin and Four Corners regions. At the
same time, the center of sfc high pressure will gradually shift
east and off the mid Atlantic coast Sunday morning with the sfc
ridge continuing to extend southwest into the Southeast Conus.
Overall, the sfc and mid level ridging will dominate. The dry
airmass and high pressure dominating will result in sub freezing
temperatures for many valley locations generally for those near
and east of I-75. Opted to go with a Freeze Warnings for areas
where NBM 5th percentile min T, Coop MOS, and or current dewpoints
point toward lows below to well below NBM deterministic for
valley locations. Opted to upgrade the Freeze Watch for tonight to
early Sunday to a Freeze Warning and also tagged on a few
additional counties to west. The counties least likely to have
valley lows of 30 or lower in widespread fashion were Pulaski and
Wayne near Lake Cumberland and coordinated a Frost Advisory there
with WFO LMK.

Meanwhile, with the high shifting east, the pressure gradient
between it and an area of lower pressure in the Plains/Central
Conus will increase and lead to occasional to frequent gusts from
once the nocturnal inversion mixes out well into the afternoon in
the 15 to 25 mph range. Coordinated going above NBM deterministic
gusts and to an extent sustained winds during that time as this
has been trend in SW Flow between systems since late winter.
Although south to southwest flow will lead to a bit of an increase
in dewpoints compared to what has been observed this afternoon,
temperatures will also moderate by about 15 degrees ore more
compared to what was observed today. This will result in similar
min rh if not lower rh as compared to today for areas east of
I-75. Sustained winds should remain below critical levels and an
SPS issuance for High Fire Danger was coordinated with our DBNF
and KDF partners. There will be some increase in moisture on
Sunday enough so that there should be more clouds at times. The PW
should rise to 35th to nearly 50th percentile by Monday evening
per 12Z HREF. However, the lowest levels will remain dry with a
downslope component to begin the day. The pattern supports a
ridge valley split for Sunday night despite a further increase in
moisture through the column by the second half of the night.
Eastern valleys will probably drop into the 30s following the
anticipated dry dewpoint day on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 322 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026

With a broad area of high pressure sitting off the coastal Carolinas
in the Atlantic, southwesterly flow around the high works into the
Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valley through Tuesday.

A shortwave trough moves through the area which could lead to low end
shower chances Monday afternoon. Winds will remain out of the
southwest, with gusts of 20 mph possible in the afternoon.
Temperatures are expected to warm into the lower 70s. At night,
mostly clear skies and light southerly winds will make for ideal
ridge-valley split conditions in the eastern valleys and hollows of
Eastern Kentucky. It is in these areas where lows could cool into
the lower 50s. Elsewhere, in the western valleys and ridgetops,
temperatures may cool into the upper 50s to low 60s.

An area of low pressure is modeled to progress out of Southern
Alberta through Monday, entering the Great Lakes Tuesday. A mix of
sun and clouds will occur Tuesday, with deep southwesterly flow
allowing warm air to advect into the area, leading highs into the
lower 80s. Clouds begin to increase overnight into Wednesday ahead
of an approaching cold front. Tuesday night, the NBM keeps
temperatures elevated in the upper 50s to low 60s for much of the
area. While this is likely because its factoring in increased cloud
cover ahead of the front, current guidance suggests that the cloud
cover doesn`t work into the area until after midnight. Therefore,
from roughly 8PM to midnight skies may be mostly clear under light
southerly flow. These conditions favor decoupling in valley
locations, where temperatures could cool off another 5-8 degrees
from whats in the forecast and before clouds move in. With all this
said, some valleys and hollows of Eastern Kentucky may drop into the
low to mid 50s, while ridge tops stay in the upper 50s to low 60s.

The approaching cold front will bring rain and thunderstorms to the
area through Wednesday. PWAT values are expected to creep up just
ahead of the frontal passage. The LREF 00Z ensemble for the area
show a 1.1-1.2 inch mean value range, which falls around the 95th
percentile making this anomalous for the time of year. The Weather
Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) for
excessive rainfall in southwest portions of the area on Wednesday.
Further model guidance  will need to be monitored before becoming
more concerned hydro-wise, especially given the drier conditions in
place.

Thursday through Friday, the cold front looks to stall south of the
area, continuing to bring periods of rain to the area each day along
with a slight chance of thunderstorms Friday.

Saturday, moisture wrapping around a persistent coastal high
pressure will allow for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. This is
ahead of another approaching low pressure system and its cold front
which may impact the area later Saturday into Sunday. Temperatures
Thursday through Saturday look to remain 5-10 degrees above normal,
in the upper 60s to mid 70s. The Climate Prediction Center`s 8-14
day outlook for temperatures and precipitation have Eastern Kentucky
in a 40-50% probability for above normal conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 711 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026

VFR conditions prevailed at TAF issuance and will hold through
the period, with just passing high and mid-level clouds at times.
Light and variable winds will become south-southwesterly to
southwesterly after 12z Sunday, with sustained winds by Sunday
afternoon in the 8 to 12 kt range with gusts as high as ~20 kts.
LLWS will be possible after 06z for TAF sites along and west of
the escarpment (i.e., KSME, KIOB, and KSYM) as a low-level jet
moves up the west side of the Cumberland Plateau.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Sunday for
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-080-084>088-104-106>120.

Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Sunday for
KYZ079-083.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC