Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXUS63 KJKL 041725
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1225 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog, light snow, and drizzle/freezing drizzle are expected
  across southeastern Kentucky today, with localized travel
  impacts and light accumulations possible before precipitation
  diminishes in coverage overnight.

- Seasonably cold temperatures are forecast through this weekend
  before a warming trend emerges early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1043 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026

Just a quick grid refresh to take in the latest surface obs and
touch-up radar trends. Grids have been saved and sent.

UPDATE Issued at 625 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026

Main edits for the pre-dawn update were to increase fog in the
grids and to make updates to hourly temperatures (air and dew
point) through 00z this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 345 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026

An area of weak frontogenetic forcing will linger over southeastern
Kentucky today as an upper level trough approaches and then moves
across the area tonight. This will allow for light precipitation to
redevelop over this area later this morning into midday, peaking
this afternoon before beginning a diminishing trend overnight
through around 12z Thursday when the the upper PV anomaly exits the
area. Models also indicate that in addition to primarily light snow
as the main p-type, some pockets of light freezing rain/drizzle will
be possible especially along and south of the Hal Rogers Parkway/KY
Highway 80 corridor, though impacts will likely be quite minor given
expected very light accumulations. Light snow accumulations today
look to max out at a little over 1 inch, primarily near and along
the higher terrain near the Virginia border, with most areas seeing
a dusting to less than 1 inch. We are thus planning to issue another
SPS to cover this by 12z this morning.

Attention then turns to another amplified upper trough diving
southeast across the Ohio Valley region Thursday, bringing an
increase in clouds and the potential for a few flurries, mainly over
northern Kentucky.

Temperatures today will remain fairly steady through the day given a
stationary front/boundary across the region. However, as the upper
trough exits and cold advection moves through the entire area, lows
tonight will fall into the teens. Highs Thursday are expected to
remain sub-freezing in the north with upper 20s, ranging to the mid-
30s across the south.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 515 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

The long term forecast period opens on Thursday evening with a quick-
passing surface high pressure system directly overhead. Depending
upon the degree of clearing realized earlier that afternoon, light
winds and a weak pressure gradient could foster ridge-valley
decoupling after sunset. MOS guidance is less aggressive with these
splits tonight than it was last night, but still tanks some of the
conventionally colder hollows towards the single digits. There
remains some model disagreement regarding the magnitude and depth of
atmospheric moisture at the start of the forecast period. Some
forecast guidance, such as the NAM BUFKIT soundings, keeps the low-
level clouds around for longer. This precludes the forecast grids
from getting as cold as the aforementioned MOS guidance, but MinTs
were lowered to the teens in the shaded eastern valleys with this
forecast package. On top of the ridges, in the Bluegrass, and in
areas along/west of Interstate 75, MinTs will likely be in the 20s.
These lows are likely to occur before 06z (1AM), when winds are
forecast to back towards the southwest and begin strengthening ahead
of an approaching clipper system.

The resultant warm air advection regime will allow temperatures to
steadily rise on Friday morning, and as the system`s lifting
mechanisms arrive, precipitation chances will increase. Modeled low-
level temperature profiles are below freezing at first, favoring
snow as the initial p-type. However, breezy southwesterly surface
winds, perhaps with wind gusts in the 20-25mph range, and veering
winds aloft will support a changeover to liquid precipitation on
Friday afternoon. If the previously-discussed conditional valley
decoupling comes to fruition and valley temperatures lag behind the
mean warming trend, Friday`s p-type forecast could become more
complicated than the rain-snow mix that is currently depicted in the
forecast grids. Trends in both the higher-resolution forecast
guidance and real-time observations will need to be monitored
closely as this system approaches,, but for now, the entirety of the
forecast area looks to rise above freezing by Friday afternoon.
Highs range from the upper 30s north of the Mountain Parkway to the
upper 40s in Southern Kentucky, which should limit accumulation
potential. Likewise, the fast-moving nature of the parent system and
its limited access to moisture (mean PWAT values are less than 0.5
inches across the forecast guidance suit) should mitigate potential
impacts, at least relative to the stronger systems that have
impacted the forecast area as of late. Ensemble probabilities of at
least an inch of snow remain less than 40% across the forecast area,
with the highest probabilties relegated to high-terrain locations
along the Virginia state line. If this accumulation threshold is
lowered to a tenth of an inch of snow, these probabilities increase
to greater than 60% for locations east of the I-75 corridor. This
corresponds with the spatiotemporal footprint of the greatest PoPs
on Friday, and those precipitation chances look to continue into
Friday night in the eastern half of the forecast area.

By Friday evening, the parent shortwave disturbance will be ejecting
off to the east aloft. A surface cold front will sweep through the
forecast area, and winds throughout the column will return to a
northwesterly orientation overnight. This will establish a potent
cold air advection regime and allow any remaining precipitation to
change back over to snow. Orographic accumulation enhancements will
be possible on NW facing slopes overnight, and a few pieces of
deterministic guidance support this notion, with isolated storm total
snow accumulations approaching an inch in places like Big Black
Mountain and Dorton. Precipitation chances should taper off from NW
to SE as drier air filters into the region on Saturday morning, and
the baseline NBM guidance gives way to mostly sunny skies by
Saturday afternoon. It is plausible that the clouds could stick
around for longer, and CAA flurries could continue. It is also
plausible that Saturday`s forecast highs and Saturday night`s
forecast lows are too warm. The current forecast grids reflect a
slight decrease from the deterministic NBM data, with temperatures
struggling to warm above freezing in the northeastern half of the
forecast area. Further to the SW (mostly west and south of the KY-15
corridor), recent guidance has trended colder than the current
forecast highs in the mid 30s. This trend is due to the persistence
of a potent CAA regime into Saturday afternoon. Model spread begins
to increase in this time frame, but expect Saturday`s temperature
forecast to trend colder in subsequent forecast packages given this
trend.

Thankfully, temperatures are forecast to steadily moderate through
the rest of the long term forecast period. As the mean troughing
responsible for the recent cold/active weather shifts east
throughout the weekend, longwave ridging looks to build into the
Southern Plains. One last clipper system may pass to the NE of the
forecast area on Sunday, but the overarching eastward shift of the
synoptic features aloft will keep the best moisture and lift
displaced away from the forecast area. Thus, PoPs remain below
mentionable values in this time frame, and the system`s only
sensible weather impacts in Eastern Kentucky will come in the form
of a weak WAA regime. After a bitterly cold morning, highs are
forecast to recover into the 40s across much of the forecast area on
Sunday afternoon. Headed into early next week, the flow aloft is
forecast to adopt more of a zonal orientation while the
aforementioned ridge flattens. Modeled midlevel height rises point
towards the continuation of the warming trend, with southern
portions of the forecast area reaching the 50s on Monday and most of
the JKL CWA in the 50s on Tuesday. By midweek, moisture return is
expected around the backside of a surface high centered over the
southeastern CONUS. This results in increasing precipitation chances
at the very end of the period, but by Wednesday morning, even the
forecast lows will be above freezing. Therefore, Wednesday`s
precipitation is poised to fall as a plain, liquid rain. This
thermal relief is forecast to continue into the extended forecast
period. The CPC continues to outline a 50-70% chance of above normal
temperatures in Eastern Kentucky through mid-February, a welcome
relief from the cold temperatures and wintery precipitation types
that have plagued Eastern Kentucky as of late.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026

A combination of IFR and MVFR conditions are prevailing across all
TAF sites with this issuance and will prevail through much of the
TAF window. Widespread low CIGS and fog exist across the area and
will persist through much of the TAF window as a slow moving
surface wave works across the Tennessee Valley. Once this wave
moves off to the east, a gradual improvement to VFR will exist but
mainly after 12Z/Thursday. Lastly, winds will be light and
variable.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VORST
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...VORST