Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

060
FXUS63 KJKL 291526 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1126 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures warm today as south to southwest flow engages.
  However, low to very low relative humidity, dry fuels, and gusts
  into the 15 to 25 mph range will result in High Fire Danger.

- Significant warming occurs in the upcoming week, with the
  potential for several consecutive days in the 70s to perhaps
  lower 80s for highs, along with mild overnight lows in the 40s
  to lower 60s.

- A trend towards a more active weather pattern is looking to take
  shape during the middle to second half of the work week. More
  significant and widespread rainfall is possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1120 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026

Hourly grids were edited based on recent observations and trends.
The nocturnal inversion was mixing out or has mixed out in most
locations and as that occurred some gustiness has occurred
already in the more open terrain locations at upwards of 20 mph
or more in areas such as KLOZ. The very dry low levels is leading
to some sub 25 percent RH already with the Letcher County KY
Mesonet location that is experiencing downsloping off the higher
terrain of east TN and SW VA across Pine Mtn down into teens
percent range with a dewpoint in the teens. Although the airmass
will gradually moisten and there will be more cloud cover today
compared to Saturday there should also be several hours of mostly
sunny skies. This will result in widespread min rh in the 15 to
25% range if not lower in some locations in the southeast. The dry
airmass will also warm to above normal levels, into the mid 60s
to low 70s. Fire Danger is high today due to the low rh, expected
consistent gusts in the afternoon into the 15 to 25 mph range and
very dry mostly unshaded fuels which is an affect of the below
normal precipitation that has occurred this month and this
calendar year for most of the region.

UPDATE Issued at 730 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 440 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026

08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure shifting off to the east of
Kentucky. Its influence has been able to keep the skies mostly
clear with just some high thin clouds passing through overnight.
This, and light winds, combined with the dry air mass to set up a
night of strong radiational cooling and a resulting moderately
large ridge to valley temperature difference. As such,
temperatures currently vary from the mid 20s in the sheltered
low spots to near 40 degrees in the higher elevation thermal
belts. Meanwhile, amid light winds turning southeast, dewpoints
are quite low - ranging from the low 20s west to single digits in
the east.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, continue to be
in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict eastern Kentucky between broad troughing
to the northeast and ridging over Texas and through the middle of
the Gulf. This means sustained northwest flow at mid levels today
into Monday morning over Kentucky with a dampening impulse
slipping by to the north at the start of the new work week. With
time, the pattern switches more zonal on its way to southwesterly
towards 00Z Tuesday while additional weak bits of mid-level
energy impinge from the northwest. The near match to the model
solutions through the short term portion of the forecast again
supported the NBM as the starting point of the grids. The main
adjustments made to this initialization were to incorporate more
in the way terrain details for hourly and low temperatures this
morning and through the first part of tonight. Did also include
some CAMs details in the small PoPs late tonight into Monday.

Sensible weather features a warmer, dry, and breezy day as the
high pressure system departs further off to the east. This will
help to swing the winds around to the southwest with time and mix
down both higher wind speeds and drier air from aloft this
afternoon. These conditions represent a threat for erratic fire
behavior and weather favorable for ignition/burning. Accordingly,
we are continuing the Fire Danger Statement SPS for the area
through early evening. Those southwest winds will eventually bring
more moisture into the area by late this evening and early
overnight including a band of lower clouds. This will effectively
stop the radiational cooling tonight and see valley temperatures
rise towards dawn - west to east. Many sheltered spots will likely
see their lowest temperatures around 2 am before the mixing and
warming initiates. Some sprinkles or light showers will be
possible towards dawn but the dry lower levels will favor virga
for most of the time. A better shot at scattered showers takes
place during the day, Monday, once moisture has had time to build
at the lower levels and the influence of the passing impulse
aloft arrives for the area. The clouds and scattered showers will
put a cap on the temperature rise, but low to mid 70s are still a
fairly good bet for highs that afternoon.

The changes to the NBM starting point primarily consisted of
adjusting the hourly temperatures and lows this morning and again
for the first part of tonight for enhanced terrain distinctions
along with extra mix-down drying this afternoon. PoPs were tweaked
late tonight and on Monday to include the latest CAMs consensus.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 603 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026

The models remain in good agreement with a transition from zonal
flow to more amplified flow over the CONUS next week. Broader
ridging initially over the southeastern CONUS will sharpen up as
it moves over the western Atlantic. Meanwhile, troughing will
evolve generally west of the Mississippi River, as increasingly
stronger eastern Pacific energy moves in with time. While details
on the smaller scale features remain unresolved, there remains
higher confidence that a period of more unsettled weather will be
in place across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys for the middle and
second half of next week, along with well above normal
temperatures.

Monday night, mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, along with
south to southwest low level flow will allow for a 10 degree plus
ridge/valley split. Lows will range from the upper 40s to near 50
in the colder hollows, to around 60 on the ridges. Low level flow
will shift to the southwest on Tuesday. Temperatures will soar
into the lower 80s, with a few showers possible in the afternoon,
as a cap likely erodes enough by peak heating.

Clouds will increase out ahead of an approaching cold front
Tuesday night, with rain chances returning after midnight. This
front will attempt to pass through eastern Kentucky on Wednesday,
with more widespread showers and some thunderstorms expected. It
is possible though that if model trends continue, there may be
more of a gradient in the PoPs from northwest to southeast.
Depending on the evolution of a southern stream short wave trough
that will be moving from the Desert Southwest to the middle
Mississippi Valley, more of a break in the rain may occur compared
to what the blended PoPs currently depict across eastern Kentucky
Wednesday night into Thursday.

Beyond Thursday, even more uncertainty exists, as additional
short wave energy tracks across the Plains and eventually into the
Mississippi Valley, with plenty of model spread in timing and
amplitude. Rain chances peak as high as likely (60%) at times from
Friday through Saturday across the area; however given the
uncertainty in the forcing, hydro concerns continue to remain low
despite the well above normal PWATs in place. Temperatures will
average well above normal through Saturday, with highs in the 70s
and 80s each day, and lows in the 50s and 60s each night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026

VFR conditions prevail at TAF issuance and will hold through the
bulk of the period, with just passing high and mid-level clouds,
at times. However, some lower CIGs to MVFR and light showers will
be possible north and west toward the end of the period. Light
and variable winds will become south-southwesterly to southwest
after 14Z, with sustained winds by afternoon in the 8 to 12 kt
range with gusts as high as ~20 kts. LLWS from the southwest at up
to 45 kts will be possible for most TAF sites late tonight into
Monday morning.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...GREIF