Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

058
FXUS63 KJKL 251111
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
711 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unsettled weather returns to end the week and into the weekend,
  with rounds of showers and storms possibly producing heavy rain
  and a flood threat.

- An extended period of hot temperatures begins Monday with high
  temperatures reaching into the low to mid 90s and heat indices
  nearing or exceeding 100 degrees.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 649 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026

Made minor updates to Sky and hourly T/Td grids, with little
change to the overall forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 253 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026

A cold front currently located from the Upper Great Lakes to the
Central Plains will continue advancing southeast to the Ohio Valley
later today, nearly reaching the Ohio River before retreating back
north as a warm/stationary front Friday. Meanwhile, aloft an upper
level jet streak and disturbance will advance across the Lower Great
Lakes and northern Ohio River Valley Friday parallel to the surface
front, setting the stage for strengthening warm advection and
resulting in what is likely to be multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms moving east across the Ohio River Valley Friday into
Saturday.

As the front moves southeast towards the Ohio River Valley, showers
and thunderstorms should develop ahead of the front, but is unclear
if they will develop far enough south and east to reach our northern
counties. For now, we will continue to use the NBM 1-hour guidance
in keeping low-end PoPs roughly along and north of the Interstate 64
corridor from late this afternoon through tonight. Much higher
chances arrive by Friday afternoon and especially from early
evening onwards from west to east with the increase in warm
advection and a disturbance moving from the Mid-Mississippi
Valley east across the southern Ohio/TN Valley region, though many
models still keep the better instability and moisture west of the
escarpment until near or after 00z Saturday. This passing
disturbance will help allow higher dew points, and thus better
instability, to penetrate further through eastern and southeastern
Kentucky Friday night. Given this reasoning, the risk of
excessive rainfall will likely remain confined to the Bluegrass
region during the day Friday before advancing east with time into
Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 253 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026

Earlier Friday, an upper level disturbance will move from the Mid
Mississippi Vally into the Ohio Valley through the afternoon. By
Friday evening, a warm front is expected to sit north of the
forecast area, as showers and storms continue overnight and
through the day Saturday. Initially, better rain chances will be
located across the northern portions of the Licking and Kentucky
River Basins. Looking at some model and ensemble data, the 1.75 to
2.00 inch PWATs that are forecast across the area Friday evening
through Sunday statistically land in the 90th percentile or higher
through the three-day span; and close to 2 standard deviations
away from the average. This appears to be an abnormally moist
system. With the potential for heavy rainfall, and factoring in
recent widespread rain across Eastern Kentucky, additional
rainfall could lead to isolated to scattered flash flooding. As
such, the WPC has put portions of the forecast area in a Slight
Risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall both Friday and
Saturday. The highest risk for excessive rainfall comes Friday
night through Saturday when there is the best mid-level jet energy
aligned nearly parallel with the surface front, and a surface low
moves along the front which looks to be roughly in line with the
Ohio River. The combination of strong warm advection and forcing
for ascent will allow for multiple rounds of showers and storms
moving across the same areas.

Saturday evening, high pressure ridging aloft builds upstream of
the area, with a shortwave diving southeast toward the area along
a northwest-southeast oriented front remaining over northeastern
Kentucky. This will push another round of showers and storms
through the area Saturday night into early Sunday, with this front
getting pushed southwest as an upper high closes off over the
entire MS and Lower OH/TN valley regions. This will allow for a
more stable and drier air mass to push into the area from the
northeast, with a general decreasing trend of showers and storms
through the day Sunday.

A 596-dm high centered just north and west of eastern Kentucky to
begin next week suggests hot weather is on the way. Lower to mid
80s on Saturday slowly warm into upper 80s and lower 90s by
Monday. Beyond Monday, the warming trend continues, with heat
indices of 100-105F possible as the calendar turns to July.
Nighttime lows will also increase with the heat dome overhead,
with upper 60s to lower 70s expected Monday night, with more
widespread 70s for lows Monday night and Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 711 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail outside of river valley fog
after 04z tonight. Expect light and variable winds and non-
impactful sky cover to persist through tonight. Winds become
southwesterly around 15z or shortly thereafter and strengthen
into the 5 to 10 kt range. Also, between 15z and 18z, a cu field
is expected to develop in the 4 to 6 kft agl range, though VFR
conditions will persist. Showers and thunderstorms may begin to
impact areas along and north of the Interstate 64 corridor near
and after 00z, but confidence in this occurring is too low at this
time to include in this TAF package.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC/GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC