Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

083
FXUS63 KJKL 251139
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
739 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will soar to 15 to 20 degrees above normal on Thu.
  A strong cold front will then bring widespread showers and a
  chance of thunderstorms on Friday.

- Much colder air returns behind the cold front for the weekend,
  bringing the potential for widespread sub-freezing temperatures
  Friday and Saturday nights.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 739 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026

Temperatures are running in the low-mid 30s in sheltered valleys
to the mid 40s-low 50s in the thermal belts at daybreak. Today`s
quiet forecast remains on track with cloud-filtered sunshine and
forecast highs in the 70 to 75F range.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 258 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026

Satellite imagery shows mid and high clouds drifting across eastern
Kentucky early this morning as an ~1030 mb surface high pressure
drifts off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. The high cloud cover has helped
limit overnight temperature falls so far--thermometers range from
the mid 30s in the colder valleys to the mid 40s on thermal belt
ridges. Looking aloft, 500 hPa troughing lingers over the
Northeast CONUS while broad ridging lingers from the Desert
Southwest to the Northern High Plains. Another trough is noted
upstream over the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia.

Through tonight, heights will rise over eastern Kentucky as the
upper level ridge shifts eastward and the surface high moves into
the Atlantic. At the surface, the drying downslope south-
southeasterly flow will give way to a moistening and warming
southwesterly return flow on the backside of the departing surface
high. This will yield temperatures topping out in the lower to
middle 70s this afternoon. Even though dew points will be on the
rise, it likely won`t be quick enough to preclude relative
humidity values from bottoming out in the 15 to 30 percent range
during the afternoon. Winds will remain fairly light though,
picking up to between 5 and 10 mph with gusts up to 15 mph
possible.

A warm front lifts into the Ohio Valley from the southwest late
tonight bringing increased cloud cover and the chance of elevated
convection, primarily north of the Mountain Parkway, into Thursday
morning. Instability appears limited, perhaps a few hundred J/kg
MUCAPE in the most unstable scenarios--maybe deep enough for an
isolated rumble of thunder. Tonight`s low temperatures will be
milder than this morning given a modestly stronger pressure
gradient for mixing and more substantial cloud cover. Thus, expect
lows ranging from the upper 40s in the colder sheltered valleys
to the mid and upper 50s on thermal belt ridges and across exposed
terrain near and west of I-75 and near and north of I-64.

As 500 hPa vort energy from the Pacific Northwest trough rides
eastward, it will suppress the Western ridge and support a wave of
low pressure riding from the Mid-Missouri Valley to the eastern
Great Lakes during the day on Thursday. While the trailing cold
front will only approach the Ohio Valley during the short term
period, a strengthening warm conveyor belt jet feeding across the
lows warm sector will lead to a breezy Thursday. GFS BUFKIT mixed-
layer momentum transfer of 20 to 30 kts supports southwesterly
surface wind gusts reaching a similar magnitude. Thursday will be
warmer than today as well, with widespread highs likely in the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026

The forecast period begins late Thursday evening with the region
positioned within the warm sector ahead of a northeast-to-southwest
oriented cold front. The parent surface low is progged to be
centered over northern New England, with the trailing boundary
draped southwest through the eastern Great Lakes into the Mid-
Mississippi Valley. As the surface low occludes and tracks
northeastward toward the Canadian Maritimes, the cold front will
gradually sink southeast through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
This progression will bring increasing PoPs to the area starting
Thursday night, persisting through Friday evening before the front
exits and surface high pressure builds in from the north. While
thunderstorms are possible at the onset of FROPA Thursday night,
instability will wane overnight, leading to a decrease in convective
coverage. Clearing skies Friday night into Saturday morning, coupled
with CAA, will allow temperatures to drop toward freezing,
supporting the potential for frost development in sheltered valleys.

Surface high pressure will remain the dominant synoptic feature
through the weekend. Persistent northerly flow will maintain CAA on
the backside of the departing system, keeping Saturday cool with
highs ranging from the lower 50s in the Bluegrass to the upper 50s
near the Tennessee border. Low-level flow will shift southerly by
Sunday, allowing temperatures to moderate approximately 10 degrees
warmer than Saturday. Beginning Monday, a series of shortwaves will
traverse the CONUS, introducing isolated to scattered PoPs starting
Monday afternoon and continuing through the end of the period.
Temperatures will trend above seasonal averages during this
timeframe, with highs eventually climbing into the upper 70s to
lower 80s by Tuesday and Wednesday.

The forecast period is characterized by a cold frontal passage
followed by building high pressure for the weekend. Temperatures
will start below normal but will trend significantly warmer,
reaching the 80s by the middle of next week. Model consensus
indicates a return to an active convective pattern for the upcoming
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 739 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, but there will be
considerable mid-upper level clouds. A warm front will lift
northeast across the area late tonight bringing some LLWS. There
is also a small chance of a shower toward daybreak Thursday,
mainly over the far north. Otherwise, light and variable winds
this morning will become southwesterly after 14Z between 5 and 10
kts with gusts to around 15 kts at times.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON