Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

031
FXUS63 KJKL 161500 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1000 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  A significant warming trend begins today. Temperatures should reach
   the 60s area-wide by Tuesday afternoon and could hit the lower
   70s in many areas by Thursday afternoon.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026

14Z sfc analysis shows high pressure in control of the weather
over eastern Kentucky. This has managed to clear out the fog from
earlier in the morning and overnight, but the lower clouds remain
for the northern half of the area. Currently, temperatures are
running around 40 north to the upper 40s in the south. Meanwhile,
amid light and variable winds, dewpoints are generally in the
upper 30s and lower 40s. Have updated the forecast mainly to
remove the fog and dense fog advisory. Did also add in the latest
obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These adjustments have
been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of
the HWO, SAFs, NPW, and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 653 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026

The low stratus deck has been slow to erode amidst a weak east
northeast low-level flow. Therefore, the southern portions of the
Dense Fog Advisory have been cancelled (any dense fog should be
mainly confined to the higher ridgetops in the cancelled
counties). Aside from the slower clearing and less widespread
dense fog threat, the forecast for today remains unchanged.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026

Low stratus continues to erode southward this morning. As skies
clear, fog is rapidly developing and becoming locally dense, hence
a Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM EST.
Temperatures remain quite mild for February, ranging from the
upper 30s to middle 40s. Surface analysis shows yesterday`s
system exiting the Southeast Coast while high pressure builds east
from the mid-Mississippi Valley ahead of a broad 500 hPa ridge
over the High Plains.

The upper level ridging will slowly shift eastward through the
short-term to over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, the associated
surface reflection will crest over eastern Kentucky this
evening/tonight before shifting east of the Appalachians on
Tuesday. Fog and low stratus will lift into a low cumulus deck
this morning before gradually eroding from southwest to northeast.
With dew points remaining above freezing and skies clearing,
valley fog is expected to develop tonight. Additional upper level
moisture moves in late tonight and Tuesday leading to extensive
cloud cover on Tuesday. A shallow cumulus or stratocumulus deck is
also possible Tuesday as low-level moisture surges back north-
northeast on southerly return flow.

In sensible weather terms, dense fog will lift into a cumulus
field by midday, gradually eroding from south to north. It will be
milder with afternoon temperatures warming into the mid 50s to
low 60s. Fair skies follow tonight with a sharp ridge-valley
temperature split; lows range from the low 30s in hollows to near
40 on ridges. Fog is likely in many of the river valleys. On
Tuesday, it will be variably cloudy with temperatures once again
rebounding into the lower and middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 408 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026

The forecast period begins under the influence of surface high
pressure situated off the Eastern Seaboard. Southerly low-level flow
around this feature will advect a warmer air mass into the region,
maintaining mild overnight temperatures Tuesday night. To the
northwest, an approaching shortwave trough is progged to dive from
the High Plains toward the Great Lakes. As this system shifts
eastward, the forecast area will transition into the warm sector,
allowing daytime highs to climb into the mid to upper 60s. While an
approaching cold front will cause PoPs to increase throughout
Wednesday, forecast soundings reveal a deep layer of dry air in the
low-to-mid levels. This suggests initial radar echoes will likely
manifest as virga rather than surface precipitation. Showers will
not reach the ground until the column achieves saturation later in
the day, with precipitation then persisting through the overnight
hours.

Simultaneously, another shortwave is forecast to develop, lifting an
associated warm front into the region by Thursday morning. Although
initial model guidance suggested thunderstorms, a lack of surface-
based instability warranted the removal of thunder from the forecast
for the Thursday morning period. Shower chances will remain elevated
through Friday as an occluding surface wave tracks through the Ohio
Valley into the Great Lakes. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may
return to the forecast Thursday night, though no severe weather is
anticipated. A secondary feature is expected to develop along the
trailing cold front, bringing renewed chances for showers and a few
rumbles of thunder late Friday into Saturday. The system is forecast
to finally eject on Sunday. In its wake, cold air advection will
filter into the region, causing lingering backside precipitation to
transition from rain to a rain-snow mix, and eventually all snow by
early Monday morning.

Overall, the forecast remains highly active as multiple synoptic
features traverse the CONUS. Temperatures will stay above seasonal
averages through the work week due to persistent southwesterly flow.
After temperatures peak in the low 70s on Thursday, a cooling trend
will take hold for the remainder of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026

High pressure is building across the area at TAF issuance. A
stubborn IFR/low MVFR stratus deck south of I-64 will gradually
retreat/erode northward through the day, allowing improvement to
VFR area wide by 20Z. Once VFR develops, it should persist
through the end of the period at the TAF terminals, though valley
fog formation tonight could lead to renewed restrictions at non-
TAF airfields such as KI35 and K1A6. Winds will be generally light
and variable through the end the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON/JP