Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

550
FXUS63 KJKL 290045
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
745 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near-record warmth will end abruptly as temperatures plummet
  from the 60s/low 70s this evening into the 20s by Monday
  afternoon.

- A potent cold front with a gusty squall will race across the
  area tonight between ~11 PM and 3 AM.

- A Wind Advisory is in effect over all of eastern Kentucky for
  tonight and in northern counties on Monday. Strong winds may
  blow around loose objects, bring down tree limbs, and cause a
  few power outages.

- A few light snow showers or flurries are possible Monday into
  Monday night, as much colder air settles in.

- Winter-like temperatures will persist through the end of 2025
  and into the beginning of 2026.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 745 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025

Warm and breezy conditions continue this evening, most places are
in the mid to upper 60s, though warmer locales remain near 70
degrees. Looking upstream, the potent cold front with multiple-
severe warned storms and occasional tornado warnings stretches
from Indianapolis to Paducah. Guidance is still in good agreement
showing this line beginning to weaken as it crosses the
Commonwealth and becomes starved for instability in the lower dew
point (mainly 50s) air mass that is in place over much of the LMK
and all of the JKL CWAs and any dew point rises will be limited.
Even without a widespread severe weather threat, the strong jet
and forcing dynamics will still support strong winds developing
this evening and peaking around the time of the frontal passage.
For locations north of the Mountain Parkway, the Wind Advisory now
calls for wind gusts up to 50 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 445 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025

Thermometers have soared to balmy levels this afternoon under
partial sunshine, reaching the lower and middle 70s outside of the
higher elevations. The warmest temperatures observed as of 4 PM
were 75 degrees at the Kentucky Mesonet sites 3 miles southeast of
Jackson, 2 miles south of Booneville and 1 mile west of Stanton.
As of 4 PM, a new daily record high of 72F had been established at
NWS WFO Jackson as well, beating the old record of 71F set in
1984. With those very warm temperatures, southwest breezes have
been busy, gusting to between 20 and 39 mph across most of the
area (locally in excess of 40 mph in Wayne County). This gusty
breeze is due to momentum mixing down from an intensifying low-
level southwesterly jet situated in the warm sector of a rapidly
deepening ~995 mb low pressure over Chicago. An intense cold
front is noted upstream extending from the surface low southward
across the Ozarks to over the Edwards Plateau. The low pressure
system is supported by a digging 500 hPa trough over the
Northern/Central Plains while bitterly cold air spills south from
Canada (temperatures are near zero in portions of North Dakota and
Montana).

The short-term period weather will be dominated by this storm
system. Initially, look for the low-level jet to continue
intensifying across the Eastern Kentucky Coalfields, especially
after sunset (18Z RAP13 guidance supports 850 hPa strength of 55
to 60 kts). Due to nocturnal timing of the system, only some of
the momentum will be able to transfer down to the surface until
the arrival of the cold front overnight, most likely between 04Z
and 08Z. With GFS BUFKIT mixed layer momentum transfer peaking at
35 to 40kts across the area, and high probabilities for wind gusts
exceeding 40 mph in the HREF overnight ahead of and accompanying
the front, Wind Advisories were hoisted from 7 PM this evening to
5 AM Thursday for the entire forecast area to cover the potential
for wind gusts up to 45 mph. However, isolated stronger damaging
wind gusts cannot be ruled out with a narrow QLCS along the
frontal boundary, but widespread severe criteria winds are not
expected. As the front passes through the area, temperatures will
begin a drawn-out slide--925 hPa temperatures this evening around
~15C fall to -11 to -13C by late Monday night. With that strong
post-frontal cold air advection, winds aloft wont be as strong,
but steep low-level lapse rates will promote efficient mixdown
supporting continued westerly winds gusting to between 30 and 40
mph during the day on Monday. Thus the Wind Advisory continues
north of the Mountain Parkway through Monday afternoon to account
for stronger winds aloft closer to the upper level low. The deep
moisture will move out quickly behind the frontal passage tonight,
but some guidance still indicates the potential for renewed light
snow showers or flurries within the upslope flow and ongoing cold
air advection regime on Monday as additional energy rotates
around the upper low. The model discrepancy appears to be due to
differences in the amount of low-level moisture that is able to
linger, likely dependent upon the amount of moisture modification
of the incoming dry air mass wrapping around the upper low to our
north as well as any regional land-surface moisture impacts.
If meager but sufficient low-level moisture is present, the top
of the convective layer will be in the DGZ and supportive of light
snow showers and perhaps a dusting of accumulation on grassy/elevated
surfaces where activity is most persistent. Ground/pavement
temperatures are much too warm for travel impacts. Any leftover
precipitation tapers off Monday night as cold air advection and
upslope flow weakens.

In sensible weather terms, look for mild conditions this evening
with temperatures holding steady in the lower 70s or falling back
slightly into the 60s while winds remain breezy, becoming
increasingly blustery towards midnight as showers begin to develop
from the west. Southwesterly wind gusts up to 45 mph are forecast
late. Expect a strong squall to race through from west to east
between 11 PM and 3 AM, dropping a quick 0.10 to 0.25 inch of rain
along with 45+ mph gusts possible. Temperatures will drop quickly
as winds shift westerly behind the front, reaching the low 30s
west of I-75/north of I-64 to the low 40s east of US-23 by 7 AM.
Temperatures will continue dropping during the daylight hours on
Monday back into the mid to upper 20s. Westerly winds will remain
gusty to between 30 and 40 mph through the afternoon, strongest
north of I-64. Light snow showers or flurries will also be
possible from late morning on into Monday night, with better
chances north of the Mountain Parkway. No impactful accumulation
is expected. Temperatures continue settling back into the upper
10s to near 20F for most locations Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 358 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025

The models start out in good agreement with an amplified long wave
pattern in place. A deep closed low will be established over
southeastern Canada, with a prominent trough extending southward
through the eastern third of the U.S. Meanwhile, a persistent ridge
will be the rule across the West. The cutoff low will gyre around
Hudson Bay through the close of 2025 and the opening of 2026, before
gradually relenting by this weekend. Details on how quickly this
takes place as well as the evolution of inbound southern stream
energy remain murky at this time, given the large model spread.
As such, have stayed fairly close to the blended guidance
regarding precipitation chances and the temperature profile.

Tuesday will be cold and blustery across eastern Kentucky, with
temperatures likely staying below the freezing mark at most
locations, while westerly winds of around 10 mph make it feel
like the teens most of the day. Surface high pressure will be
positioned to our southwest Tuesday night, with some influx of
clouds within the broader cyclonic flow established across most
locations east of the Mississippi River. Lows will dip into the
lower 20s, with a few teens possible within the deeper hollows
along and southeast of KY-80. Better return flow will engage on
Wednesday out ahead of the next approaching clipper-type storm
system. Temperatures will rebound into the upper 30s north of the
Mountain Parkway, to the mid 40s bordering Tennessee. The clipper
will bring the next chance of light snow to eastern Kentucky to
ring in the new year. This system continues to look fairly
moisture-starved, with the brunt of the upper level support likely
staying to our northeast. As such, impacts should be more limited
as it looks right now.

Temperatures will cool off a bit behind this boundary for the start
of 2026, and then it remains to be seen how quickly readings modify,
depending on the pace of the Canadian upper level low losing its
grip in the East. The GFS remains colder, while the ECMWF is warmer,
with lots of spread on either side. The next weather maker will move
in by this weekend, with modest precip chances holding this run, as
the GFS remains shunted further southeast with the low track and
associated moisture. The 12z ECMWF has also trended further
southeast compared to its 00z counterpart, but this will continue to
modulate in subsequent runs. The low-confidence forecast
temperatures will average near to slightly below normal for early
January.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025

Generally low VFR ceilings were present at TAF issuance. Clouds
will increase this evening and lower as a cold front and
associated squall approach, passing west-to-east through the
forecast area between 4Z and 8Z. Mainly MVFR conditions will
persist behind the front before improving slightly on Monday.
Light snow showers are possible from late morning onward with
associated visibility reductions, but confidence was too low to
include in the TAFs at this time. Southwesterly winds will
increase to between 10 and 20 kts with gusts of 30 to 40 kts
ahead of the front heading into the overnight. The strongest
gusts are expected with the front, could be erratic and exceed 40
kts. The winds switch to westerly behind the boundary and relax
slightly through the remainder of the night before turning
gustier again during the day on Monday with gusts of 25 to 35 kts
commonplace.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 5 PM EST Monday for KYZ044-050>052-060-104-
106.

Wind Advisory until 5 AM EST Monday for KYZ058-059-068-069-079-
080-083>088-107>120.


&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...GEERTSON