Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

813
FXUS63 KJKL 260905
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
505 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and thunderstorms return to the area starting this
  afternoon and continues into the weekend, with rounds of
  activity possibly producing heavy rain and a localized flood
  threat.

- An extended period of hot temperatures begins Monday, with high
  temperatures reaching into the low to mid 90s and heat indices
  nearing or exceeding 100 degrees by Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 505 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026

08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure retreating off to the
southeast of the state while to the west low pressure and its
frontal structure are entering the western Ohio Valley. Locally,
a few stray showers are nearby with clouds pushing deeper into
eastern Kentucky. This is likely limiting the fog in the northern
half of the JKL CWA while it is probably found in the southern
valleys. In this environment, temperatures currently vary from the
lower 60s in the southern sheltered spots to near 70 degrees
under those northern clouds. Meanwhile, amid light and variable
winds, dewpoints are generally in the mid to upper 60s.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in good
agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast.
They all depict an area of 5h troughing over the Great Lakes
shifting northeast early in the period. In its wake, more mid-
level energy in the form of an MCV streams into the Ohio Valley
in fast and nearly zonal flow throughout the day yielding a
distinct shortwave and sending some weak height falls through
eastern Kentucky this evening. Additional, minor perturbances and
possible MCVs follow into Saturday generally targeting southeast
parts of the state - ahead of rising 5h heights by that night.
Given the generally decent agreement among the models, the NBM
was used as the starting point for the grids with little
adjustment needed aside from more CAMs guidance incorporated into
the PoPs and QPF. Terrain effects were limited tonight considering
the high moisture content.

Sensible weather features a warm and humid day that will provide
the fuel for storms into the afternoon and evening - likely as a
pre-existing cluster that works in from the west towards midday.
This round of showers and thunderstorms will likely contain bouts
of heavy rain and could induce some localized flash flooding -
especially into the night as another round of storms will be
possible in the north. Generally 1-2 inches of rain is expected
from these clusters as basin averages with localized higher
amounts possible - potentially up to 4 inches should training
cells target the same locations. For this reason, a Flash Flood
Watch will be in effect for the northern portion of the CWA from 2
pm today through 10 am Saturday. A third round of storms is
anticipated for Saturday afternoon (and possibly another that
night) as the latest in a series of MCVs and impulses aloft
continue to pass through over much of the weekend. At this point,
the better storm chances look to affect the more southwestern
parts of the area. As a result, a continuation and adjustment of
the Flood Watch is certainly possible through the first half of
the weekend with confidence hopefully increasing from future model
runs - including the higher resolution guidance. In addition to
the heavy rain threat, some damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled
out both this afternoon/evening and Saturday due to the organized
nature of these storm clusters and their meso-scale dynamics.

The main adjustments to the NBM starting point was to fine tune
the PoPs and QPF per the latest consensus CAM guidance. Did not
need to adjust the temps or dewpoints much considering the high
humidity air mass in place.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026

Saturday night, showers and storms are expected to continue across
Eastern Kentucky in the wake of an upper level disturbance. Its
associated cold front slowly sags south and stalls over the area.
Potential for repeated rounds of showers and storms over the same
locations in addition to locally heavy rainfall has prompted a
Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall from the WPC, where
the probability of excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding
ranges from 15% to 39% in areas south of the Hal Rogers
Parkway/Highway-80 corridor. Temperatures look to bottom out in
the upper 60s Saturday night.

High pressure across the Lower Mississippi Valley will slowly
strengthen and build northward under a strong ridge aloft heading
into next week. This building high is expected to put Eastern
Kentucky briefly on the lee side of the ridge, and push the cold
front back north as a warm front through the first part of Sunday.
Showers and storms may persist through the day across the Upper
Cumberland and southern portions of the Kentucky River Basins.
Temperatures warm into the mid to upper 80s through the afternoon
before cooling into the upper 60s to low 70s.

As high pressure builds and settles over the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys through next week, hot and muggy conditions follow.
Temperatures in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices of 100-105F
are certainly possible. Low temperatures Monday night onward range
from the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026

VFR conditions should prevail for a good portion of the forecast
period, with a couple of caveats. Valley fog formation is
anticipated in southeast Kentucky again tonight, with reductions
down to MVFR or IFR levels, though this should not affect any of
the terminals. Mid to high level clouds, debris from upstream
convection, will likely affect the sky for the latter portion of
the period. Cumulus again develops during the 14Z to 17Z period,
which should eventually yield convective chances during the last 6
to 12 hours of the aviation period as a cold front sags toward
the Ohio Valley. Light and variable winds are expected through
about 14Z, giving way to south to southwest winds at 10 kts or
less.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Saturday
morning for KYZ044-050>052-059-060-104-106-107-119.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JP/GREIF