Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

131
FXUS63 KJKL 050824
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
324 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The best chances of showers and thunderstorms will stay
  generally north of I-64 through the bulk of the night before
  returning to the south after dawn.

- Temperatures will soar into the upper 70s to lower 80s on
  Friday and Saturday, threatening daily record highs.

- Strong to severe storms will be possible Saturday as a strong
  cold front moves through the area.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1140 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids
as well as a tweaking of the PoPs and QPF per the most recent CAMs
guidance. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and
web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 630 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows the wavy warm front now moving back north
taking the scattered convection along with it. The better chances
for a renewed surge of showers or storms into the area will likely
hold off until after dawn on Thursday. This will leave partly
cloudy skies around tonight along with some patchy valley fog.
Currently, temperatures are quite warm - running in the mid 50s
north to the mid 60s south. Meanwhile, amid light and variable
winds, dewpoints are generally in the moist low to mid 50s. Have
updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends
for the T/Td/Sky grids while fine tuning the PoPs through the
night per the most recent CAMs guidance. These minor adjustments
have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening
of the SAFs and zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 502 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026

A stationary front remains draped over the Ohio River Valley, just
north of Kentucky. Showers and thunderstorms continue along this
boundary and are expected to continue lifting north through the
remaining afternoon and evening hours. Small hail, gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall can be expected with any storms along and
north of I-64 over the next few hours or so. Winds will remain out
of the southwest though sunset, becoming light and of the south
overnight. A temperature gradient has resulted across the area from
the ongoing showers and storms north of I-64. Current conditions see
temperatures ranging from the lower 60s across the north, to mid 70s
south of the Mountain Parkway. This evening, temperatures remain
fairly mild, dropping into the upper 50s to near 60 across Eastern
Kentucky.

Low pressure continues to lift northeast through the Ozarks into the
Ohio Valley. The stationary front will eventually stall out again
over portions of northern Indiana and Ohio. Continued southerly flow
allows for moisture to stream northward into the area. Perturbations
moving through the region will result in shower and thunderstorms
south of the stalled front across the Ohio Valley, and ahead of the
approaching cold front from the west. What this mens for Eastern
Kentucky is scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm chances,
mainly north of the Hal-Rogers/KY Parkway through tonight.

Thursday, chances for showers and storms may peak during daytime
heating in the afternoon. Southern areas are less likely to receive
measurable rainfall. Temperatures will top out in the low to upper
70s, with some areas approaching 80, especially further south.
Temperatures at night hover around 60, as southerly winds and cloud
cover keep the area insulated. Shower chances will begin to lift

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026

The extended period begins Friday evening with the region positioned
under the influence of surface high pressure while simultaneously
entering the warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front. The
parent surface low is progged to migrate northeast from the Mid-
Mississippi Valley toward the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes.
As this evolution occurs, the associated warm front will lift
through the Ohio Valley while the cold front slowly tracks eastward.
Within the warm sector, temperatures are forecast to remain mild,
ranging from the low to mid 60s overnight Friday into Saturday.

Beginning Saturday morning, forecast uncertainty increases regarding
the potential for strong to severe convection. Two primary scenarios
are currently being monitored. In the first scenario, the area
remains rain-free with clearing skies, allowing for increased
destabilization by Saturday afternoon. Deterministic forecast
soundings for this solution indicate MUCAPE values near 1,500 J/kg,
effective bulk shear around 35 knots, and surface dewpoints in the
low to mid 60s. While low-level lapse rates appear favorable, mid-
level lapse rates remain marginal. A significant limiting factor for
this scenario is the core of the LLJ, which is forecast to shift
northeastward before the arrival of the front, effectively
disconnecting the strongest kinematic support from the thermodynamic
environment. Conversely, the second scenario involves pre-frontal
showers or persistent cloud cover, which would significantly limit
the severe weather threat. In this case, robust atmospheric recovery
would be required before the arrival of the cold front Saturday
afternoon. In the latest SPC Day 3 outlook, the area is comfortably
in a Marginal Risk but the northeastern third of the CWA is clipped
by a Slight Risk which would primarily focused on where the LLJ is
playing the biggest role. Regardless of the scenario, the front will
move into the region Saturday, bringing widespread showers and
thunderstorms before stalling in a northeast-to-southwest
orientation across the area through Sunday.

A brief reprieve from precipitation is expected early Monday;
however, this will be short-lived. The stalled boundary will serve
as the focus for convective redevelopment by Monday afternoon. While
PoPs do not fall to 0 percent, they decrease to 10 percent before
rising to 30-40 percent as an upper-level wave interacts with the
baroclinic zone. This feature will lift the boundary northward as a
warm front through Tuesday. By Wednesday, the warm front is forecast
to extend from Missouri to Maine, with a primary surface low
situated over the Ark-La-Tex region. This placement keeps the CWA
within the warm sector ahead of a subsequent cold front toward the
end of the period.

The forecast period will be characterized by multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms, with the potential for strong to severe
activity on Saturday if environmental parameters align. Temperatures
are forecast to remain well above average, peaking near 80 degrees
on Tuesday and Wednesday before cooler post-frontal air arrives on
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026

For the 06Z TAF issuance conditions were VFR as the main area of
showers and storms is staying just north of the forecast area.
Look for some mainly light fog around, at times, through the
night with a renewed chance for convection settling back south
just after daybreak, Thursday, arriving from west to east. Winds
will generally remain light through the night, with a potential
of LLWS from the southwest at up to 40 kts continuing through
dawn. During the day, Thursday, winds will begin to pick up at
the sfc and gust as high as 20 kts, for most locations. The
remainder of the aviation forecast period will feature mostly VFR,
and occasional MVFR, conditions, though any thunderstorms could
briefly produce IFR conditions through the afternoon.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GREIF