Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

139
FXUS63 KJKL 030045
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
745 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures begin a moderating trend today that lasts into
  Tuesday, before a mid-week cooldown behind a passing weather
  system.

- Rain and snow is expected Tuesday into Tuesday night, with
  minor snow accumulations possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 745 PM EST MON FEB 2 2026

Cloud deck has slowly thinned from the southwest to near Lake
Cumberland and is expected to continue gradually eroding into the
overnight. Forecast appears largely on track through tonight,
warranting no substantive changes at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 421 PM EST MON FEB 2 2026

Clouds brought on by warm air advection and a weak, passing wave
aloft are lingering over the area at mid afternoon. Models are
suggesting that the clearing line over TN will progress northeast
late today and this evening, but based on recent trends,
confidence in timing is not very high. Assuming the clouds do
eventually break up at least in our southwest counties, this would
allow for valleys there to see temperatures fall a bit faster.
Eventually, clouds should increase once again (mainly mid-high
level) ahead of our next wx system, causing a rebound in valleys
with temperatures trying to level out by dawn.

The features for the next system are currently over the Great
Plains, with an upper level wave moving southeast and associated
low pressure near the TX panhandle. The surface low is forecast
to move to the TN valley on Tuesday as the wave aloft approaches
us and another one follows on its heels to overall deepen an
eastern CONUS trough. The system`s warm air advection regime and
the approaching trough will result in precipitation developing
over the Ohio Valley on Tuesday and then shifting southeast.
Models are still not locked in on a solution, with both model to
model and run to run changes occurring. Would not rule out needing
an advisory somewhere in the northern part of the forecast area,
but confidence for an outcome necessitating it is not there yet.
The latest 18Z NAM which just came in does look snowier. If models
trend that direction this evening, it would boost confidence for
an advisory issuance. The southern portion of the area should warm
enough for rain on Tuesday afternoon.

The system departs to the southeast Tuesday night and any
remaining precip in southeast KY could transition to a wintery
form as colder air arrives. As deeper moisture is lost on Tuesday
night, ice production could become problematic. This could allow
for some freezing drizzle or light freezing rain instead of just
snow in southeast KY before precip is done. However, even if it
were to occur, amounts would be very light.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM EST MON FEB 2 2026

The consensus of guidance is for the period to begin with an upper
level ridge in the western Conus and a trough extending from eastern
Canada into portions of the central to eastern Conus. This general
pattern remains with a tendency in guidance for the ridge axis to
shift into the Central Conus to end the week or over the weekend as
an upper low/trough moves into the southwest Conus. Further
downstream, the axis of the trough extending from eastern Canada
into the eastern Conus may shift east of the eastern seaboard over
the weekend per 00Z LREF mean. Northwest flow or west northwest flow
aloft largely prevails across the OH Valley, Appalachians, and
Commonwealth for the long term period, maintaining below normal
temperatures.

At the surface, the system that will have brought wintry precipitation
during the short term period should be shifting east and southeast
of the region as it precedes a 500 mb shortwave axis that moves
across the OH and TN Valleys from Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Enough low to mid level moisture may linger nearer to the VA
border for some light precipitation (mainly light snow) to be
possible in that area on Wednesday as the upper trough passes.

Drier weather follows for Wednesday night into Thursday night.
However, another clipper system passing to the north and northeast
of the area from Thursday night to Friday night in the northwest
flow regime should track across the Great Lakes to the Northeast
could result in some rain or snow showers across portions of eastern
KY on Friday as its sfc fronts cross the area. As colder air moves
into the area, any remaining showers should trend toward snow
showers on Friday night. The consensus of guidance is for generally
dry weather to end the long term period with sfc high pressure
largely dominant.

Temperatures on the order of 10 to 20 degrees below normal are
expected to begin the long term period for Wednesday to Thursday
behind the early week system, with the greatest departures for
highs. Although below normal, these readings will not be as below
normal as what has been observed recently. Another breif warmup is
anticipated for Thursday night and Friday, as the clipper system
nears, but temperatures should still average at least 5 degrees
below normal. Behind that system, below normal temperatures are
expected to continue with the largest departure being for highs on
Saturday on the order of 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Depending on
the degree of clearing or scattering of low and mid level clouds,
valleys could end up cooler than the NBM deterministic for Saturday
night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 704 PM EST MON FEB 2 2026

VFR conditions prevailed at the start of the period south of I-64,
with ceilings of 3.5-5K ft AGL in most places. North of I-64, high
end MVFR ceilings were noted. The ceilings might erode from the
southwest across the Lake Cumberland area during the first of half
of the night before filling back in late. Some light snow may then
develop and bring more widespread MVFR conditions on Tuesday, mainly
north of a line from KRGA to KPBX. However, confidence in how
this weather evolves is not very high.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEERTSON/HAL