Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

511
FXUS63 KJKL 031443 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1043 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures and mainly dry weather will prevail
  through today.

- Showers and/or thunderstorms are possible at times from tonight
  through Saturday, with the greatest probability from Tuesday
  night into Wednesday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1040 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026

Following temperatures at or below freezing for many valley
locations and low lying areas, as of 1030 AM EDT, temperatures
have recovered into the upper 40s to low 50s with the exception
of locations above 2500 feet elevation. With the sfc high
shifting east and southeast of the area, south to southwest flow
between it and lower pressure/frontal zone in the Great Lakes to
Central Plains will result in warmer air advecting into the region
and temperatures moderating into the 60s for highs.

UPDATE Issued at 639 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026

Temperatures are bottoming out in the upper 20s to mid 30s across
the forecast area at daybreak with an extensive frost or light
freeze for many. The coldest PWSs in Magoffin, Morgan, Johnson
and Elliot counties are reported readings in the 27F to 28F range.

Of note, some patchy fog has developed along the mainstem river
and that should be mitigating the frost threat somewhat
immediately adjacent to those waterways. Fog and frost should
dissipate by or before 9 AM as temperatures warm rapidly under
full sunshine. Forecast is on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026

A Freeze Warning for locations east of I-75 and a Frost Advisory
further west remain in effect until 9 AM EDT. Thermometers have
dipped into the 30s during the early hours of the morning under
clear skies and light winds, leading to the threat of widespread
frost and even a light freeze in many of the sheltered valleys and
other low-lying areas east of I-75. An ~1020 hPa surface high is
centered over the Jackson Purchase and Missouri Bootheel this
morning with ridging extending northeast along the Ohio River.
Looking aloft, a 500 hPa trough axis, extending from Quebec to the
Carolinas and Georgia, is exiting eastward though mean troughing
is in place over the eastern half to two-thirds of the CONUS. Of
note, there is a weak vort lobe extending from the Upper Midwest
and Dakotas to the Pacific Northwest associated with multiple weak
shortwaves dropping into the aforementioned mean trough.

The surface high pressure will gradually drop southeast to along
the Gulf Coast and Southeast Coast by the end of the day as the
aforementioned vort lobe energy and shortwaves drop southeast
toward the Ohio Valley. The first shortwave will result in a low-
level WAA surge late tonight. After a lull Monday morning, another
shortwave disturbance skims the Ohio Valley on Monday afternoon.
Both of these features will bring the threat of showers, the first
wave should favor showers impacting locations near and south of
the Mountain Parkway (20 to 50 percent PoPs) late tonight and then
near and north of the Mountain Parkway on Monday afternoon (20 to
40 percent PoPs). A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out,
especially during the daylight hours on Monday. Additionally,
though 850 hPa temperatures are near 0C early this morning, they
will rebound to near 13C by late Monday, resulting in the return
of markedly warmer and above normal temperature readings.

In sensible terms, look for patchy to widespread frost by dawn as
temperatures dip into the upper 20s to lower 30s for many valley
locations and into the mid 30s elsewhere under clear skies. Some
patchy fog is possible in the mainstem river valleys and that would
keep temperatures on the milder side there. Once the sun rises, it
will be a bright and seasonably cool day with relatively light
winds and high temperatures in the lower to middle 60s. For
tonight, clouds increase this evening with a chance for rain showers
and possibly even a rumble of thunder overnight. It will be much
milder with lows mainly in the 40s to around 50F. Any shower or
thunderstorm activity lulls Monday morning before rejuvenating
somewhat in the afternoon, primarily impacting areas near and
north of the Mountain Parkway. Monday will turn breezier and much
milder with highs from 75 to 80F for most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 407 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026

The forecast period begins Monday evening with quasi-zonal flow
across the area ahead of a shortwave and cold front moving toward
the area from the west and northwest. After higher PoPs during
the daytime hours Monday, only low-end PoPs are in the forecast
for Monday night, and even then only from the I-64 corridor north.
Overnight lows are expected to drop into the upper 40s far
southeastern valleys to upper 50s thermal belt ridges and open
terrain of the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland areas. Should clouds
clear, the combination of antecedent moisture and light winds
could lead to some valley fog through early Tuesday.

Tuesday and especially Tuesday night brings renewed threats of
showers and thunderstorms as the primary shortwave dives southeast
from Canada into the northern CONUS. As this occurs, the associated
upper-level circulation will rotate north of the Great Lakes. At
the surface, deep low pressure will track from northern Ontario
into northern Quebec, dragging a trailing cold front that is
progged to extend southwestward through the CONUS and reach the
doorstep of the JKL CWA by early Wednesday morning. This setup
will facilitate showers and storms throughout the day. However,
the front is expected to stall over the region, becoming a focal
point for an extended period of convection as surface features
ripple along the zone of baroclinicity.

With multiple rounds of precipitation expected, forecast QPF for
this period remains robust. Based on the current model suite,
total forecast QPF from Tuesday afternoon through late Thursday
ranges from 1.5 to 2.5 inches. Once the boundary finally shifts
through the area, brief surface high pressure will build into the
region on Friday before another system approaches for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 758 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026

Aside from some fog in the mainstem river valleys early this
morning (impacting SME), VFR conditions without significant wind
continue to be forecast through the TAF period. High pressure will
keep clear to mostly clear skies over the area until mid and high
clouds begin to move in from the northwest after 21Z. South to
southwest winds will develop this morning but should generally
remain under 10 kts.

A disturbance will then approach late tonight with a chance of
showers and possibly a thunderstorm. PROB30s have been included in
TAFs for when confidence in eventual impacts are highest.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...VORST/CMC/GEERTSON
AVIATION...GEERTSON