Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

864
FXUS63 KJKL 200435
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1135 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- With a colder and drier airmass in place, single digit lows are
  expected in most places tonight.

- Apparent temperatures will approach five below zero for some
  locales in the Bluegrass tonight, and a Cold Weather Advisory
  remains in effect for that area tonight into Tuesday morning.

- Temperatures averaging 10 to 20 degrees below normal remain in
  the forecast through Tuesday night.

- There is a chance for light precipitation on Wednesday and
  Wednesday night.

- A potentially significant storm system could yield impactful
  snow accumulations this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1134 PM EST MON JAN 19 2026

There are no changes to the forecast with the late evening update.

UPDATE Issued at 847 PM EST MON JAN 19 2026

There are no changes to the forecast with the mid-evening update.

UPDATE Issued at 508 PM EST MON JAN 19 2026

There are no significant changes to the forecast with the late
afternoon update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 355 PM EST MON JAN 19 2026

As of mid afternoon, an upper level low was centered over the Hudson
Bay vicinity with a trough extending into much of the Central and
eastern Conus while multiple disturbances were moving through
this trough. Rather strong westerly flow aloft remains in place
across the OH Valley region. Sfc high pressure meanwhile was
centered over sections of the Plains/Central Conus and was
building into the Lower OH Valley and TN Valley regions. A rather
cold and dry airmass was in place and under plenty of sunshine,
temperatures have warmed mainly into the 30s across the region,
while dewpoints are in the single digits above zero to around 10
degrees. The airmass is even drier upstream over the mid MS Valley
region. Southwest to west winds remained gusty with recent gusts
as high as 20 to 25 mph.

Tonight and Tuesday, an upper level low is expected to remain in
the Hudson Bay vicinity with the trough persisting south into
sections of the Central and eastern Conus. Disturbances moving
through the trough should largely pass north of the Lower OH
Valley/eastern KY across the Great Lakes region, reinforcing
850 mb temperatures across the area in the -10C to -15C range
tonight into Tuesday. A trend of rising 500 mb heights is progged
from late tonight into Tuesday. Meanwhile, the sfc high pressure
ridge should shift into the TN and OH valleys as the night
progresses, gradually shifting into the Appalachians by Tuesday
evening.

The dry airmass that should get a bit drier as the high builds
in, combined with gradually slackening winds, allowing for
temperatures to drop into the single digits tonight for many
locations. Some lingering wind combined with the falling
temperatures is expected to result in apparent temperatures
dropping into the single digits in several areas overnight, and in
some instances in the north these could reach the 0 to 5 below
range. The Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for the north
from late this evening into early Tuesday morning for this
potential, while an SPS remains in effect for areas further to the
south, where instances of apparent temperatures nearing zero are
possible. The colder weather was also highlighted in the HWO.

Tuesday night, the next shortwave dropping into the Central Conus
is expected to near the MS Valley and Great Lakes late. The
associated sfc system is progged to reach the Lake MI vicinity as
the period ends, with the trailing cold front approaching the Mid
MS Valley to Southern Plains. At the same time, the surface high
will be departing to the south and east. The airmass, particularly
aloft, will already have begun to moderate on Tuesday afternoon,
with 850 mb temperatures progged to rise back into the 0 to
around -5C range late tonight. The pressure gradient should
increase through the night as the high departs and the front
approaches, with western open terrain locations and ridgetops
more mixy compared to valleys in the east that are likely to be
decoupled most of the night. Overall though, with return flow in
place, lows will trend milder.

Changes from the NBM were to increase sustained winds and gusts
from the deterministic through around sunset and add more terrain
differences to low temperatures for tonight and go a little lower
than the deterministic across the board given the projected low
dewpoints. On Tuesday night, added more terrain differences,
particularly in the east, with an anticipated ridge/valley
temperature split as sfc high pressure departs.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM EST MON JAN 19 2026

Before the period starts, a clipper system is forecast to quickly
eject eastward out of the Canadian Rockies toward the Great Lakes.
By the time the forecast period begins, this feature is already
moving into the Great Lakes with a warm front oriented across the
Ohio Valley and a trailing cold front moving into the region.
Nonetheless, beginning Wednesday morning, WWA behind the warm front
will be ushering higher temperatures into the region. This will push
daytime highs into the low to upper-40s with a handful of places
reaching the low-50s.

Along with the warming temperatures, a pre-frontal LLJ will move
into the region Wednesday morning. Breezy southwesterly winds can be
expected ahead of the cold front, and wind gusts around 20 to 25 mph
are anticipated through Wednesday evening. The cold front will
quickly track eastward through the day. By Wednesday evening,
increasing PoP is anticipated, but deterministic guidance continues
to be lean on available moisture; therefore, PoP will largely be
capped around 30 percent through FROPA on Thursday morning. Lastly,
deterministic and ensemble-based thermal profiles suggest that
precipitation will be mostly rain through FROPA; however, a few
backside snow showers cannot be ruled out as temperatures dip below
freezing.

Weak surface high pressure is forecast to build back into the area
for Thursday behind the departing cold front. However, as another
shortwave perturbation moves around a 492 decameter closed
circulation, a dry cold front is forecast to move through the area
during the day Friday. This will provide a shot of cold air for
Thursday night into Friday, as overnight lows Thursday are expected
to fall into the upper-teens to mid-20s. Highs Friday are expected
to range from the upper-20s to upper-30s. Behind the departing cold
front, an anomalously cold Arctic high pressure center is expected
to dive southeast into the CONUS, bringing widespread well-below
average temperatures for Friday night and Saturday. Lows Friday are
forecast to be in the upper single digits to low teens with very
little improvement, as highs on Saturday will be in the mid-teens to
mid-20s.

At the same time, an upper-level perturbation is forecast to move
out of the Desert Southwest and across the CONUS beginning Friday
and persisting through the weekend. There is a lot of uncertainty
regarding this system and its eastward progression. However,
confidence is increasing that this system will move off the southern
Rockies into the southern Plains, bringing wintry weather to Texas
and Oklahoma before tracking eastward. As mentioned above, there is
still a great amount of uncertainty, but the general trend suggests
this feature will move across the CONUS through the weekend.
Locally, snow is forecast to begin Saturday and come to an end late
Sunday night. Accumulating snow will be possible; HOWEVER, both
spatial and temporal factors remain uncertain. Caution should be
taken regarding social media posts concerning snowfall totals
through the end of the weekend. Nonetheless, the forecast window
will close with very cold surface high pressure returning to the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM EST MON JAN 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period with just passing
mid- and high-level clouds from time to time. Winds will oscillate
generally between a west and southwest direction with average
speeds of 3 to 7 kts through the period as surface high pressure
builds over the area.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for KYZ044-050>052-
060-104-106.


&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...CMC