Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

368
FXUS63 KJKL 291210 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
810 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Just a small chance for a stray shower or thunderstorm each day
  for most of the week.

- Heat and humidity build today - likely becoming quite
  oppressive by mid-week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 740 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 450 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2026

08Z sfc analysis shows a wavy warm front just northeast of the
area while ridging is building aloft. This has mostly brought an
end to the convective activity through the area this night, though
a few light returns are noted stretched out from northwest to
southeast through the western parts of the Cumberland Valley. Amid
partly cloudy skies, some radiational cooling down to the quite
high dewpoints are leading to the formation of fog that has
become locally dense in the valleys as evidenced by some of the
obs, web cams, and the microphysics channel from satellite. On
account of this, an SPS urging caution with the patches of low
visibility has been issued through 9 am. Meanwhile, in this very
humid environment, temperatures and dewpoints are similar and
currently running in the muggy lower 70s, amid light and variable
winds.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are still in
good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict a fairly strong and expanding 5h ridge
pushing northeast and deeper into Kentucky today through Tuesday
afternoon - when it will be right overtop the JKl CWA. Broad
subsidence from this will limit vertical motion through the period
while the ridge keeps any mid-level impulses well to the north
and east of the state. Given the continued strong agreement among
the models, the NBM was used as the starting point for the grids
with some adjustment needed from a touch of the higher resolution
CAMs guidance incorporated into the PoPs grids through evening.
In addition, some minor terrain details were included for the
temperature grids tonight, along with a bit of extra drying both
afternoons.

Sensible weather features a much drier day for the area with only
a very limited threat for showers and storms through the
afternoon. While we get a chance to effectively dry out, the heat
and humidity will build today and especially on Tuesday. A heat
advisory is in effect for the western parts of the area for peak
heating today with additional heat headlines likely to be issued
in the days ahead. Similar to this night, expect valley fog
tonight along with mild temperatures exhibiting a small ridge to
valley difference. Sunnier conditions and a warmer starting point
to the day, Tuesday, should yield high temperatures for the
majority of the area topping 90 degrees.

The main adjustments to the NBM starting point were to fine tune
the PoPs today per the latest consensus CAM guidance. Did also
adjust the NBM temps for terrain distinction tonight and not quite
so high on maximum temps today and Tuesday. In addition, have also
tweaked dewpoints a bit lower than the outlier NBM values each
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2026

The long-term period opens Tuesday evening with an ~597 dam
high situated directly over the Commonwealth. At the surface,
corresponding high pressure centered off the Delmarva Peninsula
will exert its influence across the Southeastern US. A very hot
air mass will be found under the upper-level high with 850 hPa
temperatures over the eastern Kentucky Coalfields around 22C.
Upstream, a 500 hPa trough will be stationed over the Western
CONUS.

The upper-level high will very slowly drift eastward through
midweek to a position over Virginia by Thursday evening, at
which point, 850 hPa temperatures over the JKL CWA will reach the
zenith of the forecast period at 23 to 24C. Dew points will also
be in the 70s on both days, allowing for moderate to strong
destabilization on both Wednesday and Thursday, but a mid-level
cap should keep a lid on most deep convection. Only isolated PoPs
are found across portions of the area through Thursday. Heat
indices will continue to climb each afternoon, with the hottest
readings on Thursday afternoon in the 100 to 110 degree range for
most areas. Relief at night will be limited, with low temperatures
generally ranging in the 70s.

Heading into Friday and the Independence Day weekend, the upper-
level ridging will gradually break down as troughing ejects
eastward. As this occurs, difficult-to-time perturbations will
lead to renewed threats for more widespread, diurnally modulated
convection amidst weaker capping. Model soundings suggest that
continued weak shear combined with high PWATs could lead to a
threat of downburst winds from stronger pulse storms. The heat
will also gradually subside. While heat indices could still rise
to near or above 100F through Sunday, there will have been an
overall slow cooling trend as the ridge dissipates.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 810 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2026

A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions are present at the start of the
12Z TAF period with an isolated shower or two noted - located
mainly east of the western TAF spots. Some fog is out there as
well, as this will dissipate shortly leaving VFR conditions
behind for the bulk of the aviation period. However, we may see
some fog impact a couple of the TAF sites late tonight/early
Tuesday morning, as well. Winds will be light and variable through
the period at less than 10 knots.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
KYZ044-050-051-058-059-068-069-079-080-083>086.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...GREIF