Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

823
FXUS63 KJKL 211543
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1043 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light precipitation moving into northwest parts of the area this
  morning will mean a chance for freezing rain and snow resulting
  in a potential for slick road conditions through the morning
  commute.

- Winter Weather Advisory in effect until noon for locations
  northwest of a line from Irvine to Morehead.

- There will be a brief warm-up today and Thursday before very
  cold weather returns and lasts into next week.

- A major winter storm system will likely bring significant snow
  accumulations to eastern Kentucky this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1042 AM EST WED JAN 21 2026

Temperatures have warmed above freezing in the area where a
winter weather advisory was in effect, and the advisory is
cancelled.

UPDATE Issued at 956 AM EST WED JAN 21 2026

Based on mesonet reports, it looks like the only areas which have
had measurable precipitation are north of I-64, with one or two
hundredths water equivalent. There are still some temperatures at
or just below freezing in that area, so will let the winter
weather advisory ride a while longer. However, anticipate that it
will be able to get cancelled early as temperatures warm.

UPDATE Issued at 630 AM EST WED JAN 21 2026

The light wintry mix is starting to move into western parts of
the area with the heavier radar returns likely making it to the
ground. Slick spots are possible for the next several hours.
Otherwise, no significant changes were made to the forecast with
mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the
T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD
and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 500 AM EST WED JAN 21 2026

09Z sfc analysis shows high pressure retreating to the east of
Kentucky while deep low pressure is moving into the western Ohio
Valley. A developing warm front is lifting northeast through
Kentucky from this low and scattered pcpn is starting to show up
on radar over central Kentucky - initially as virga but with
moistening able to reach the ground. This is arriving as a mix of
freezing rain and snow with the potential to create some slick
spots on area roads this morning. Accordingly, a Winter Weather
Advisory has been issued from Estill to Fleming and Rowan counties
through noon. An SPS surrounds this area for the potential of
more spotty wintry pcpn and isolated slick spots until noon, by
which time temperatures will be well above freezing. Currently,
thanks to clear skies for much of the night, temperatures have
fallen toward the single digits in many of the sheltered valleys
while southerly winds are keeping readings in the low to mid 20s
on the ridges and over more open areas. On account of those
winds, and arriving lower clouds, temperatures will be climbing
into dawn at most locations but not fast enough to spare the
northwest portion of the area the threat of icy patches as the
light pcpn moves in. Meanwhile, amid light south winds 5 to 10
mph, dewpoints are generally in the single digits northeast and 10
to 15 degrees, elsewhere.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in very
good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict the large and continent dominating 5h
trough bottoming out in the Mid Mississippi Valley this morning.
This keeps the mid level flow through Kentucky mostly zonal and
fast while carrying some energy within it - though the core of
the trough stays further north in the Ohio Valley. The latest 5h
trough axis passes through this part of the state tonight as a
weak impulse departs to the east. Attention then turns to a
closed low trough arriving of the Pacific and crossing ashore into
southern California. For us, downstream, fast and nearly zonal
mid level flow will continue on Thursday. Once again the small
model spread supported using the NBM as the starting point of the
forecast grids with adjustments made to include PoP details from
the CAMs today and tonight.

Sensible weather features a cold and messy start to the day,
particularly for the northwest parts of the area closer to the
Bluegrass region. Light pcpn will spread into western parts of
the area around dawn and ahead of more significant warming
resulting in a potential for slick and icy spots on area roads and
walking surfaces. Warming temperatures will end this concern by
noon with scattered areas of rain around through the afternoon
and evening. The milder conditions continue tonight as any
leftover patches of light rain clear up. Look for the seasonable
temperatures to hold on into Thursday with more sunshine seen on
account of a fast moving high pressure area crossing the lower
Ohio Valley while a frontal boundary stalls south of the state
keeping the bulk of the clouds and pcpn chances away from
Kentucky, for now.

The changes to the NBM starting point primarily consisted of
including PoP details from the CAMs consensus through the first
part of tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 426 AM EST WED JAN 21 2026

The forecast period begins with surface high pressure building into
the region behind Thursdays cold front. To the northwest, a surface
wave is forecast to track through the Great Lakes, dragging an
accompanying cold front through the Midwest and Ohio Valley,
reaching the Commonwealth by Friday morning. While the forecast area
remains largely dry during this frontal passage, increasing moisture
ahead of a secondary system, coupled with right entrance region
dynamics of an upper-level jet, will favor increasing PoP chances
across the southeastern portion of the CWA. Deterministic soundings
and LREF ensemble probabilities indicate a small window for a wintry
mix Friday morning before CAA transitions lingering hydrometeors to
light snow. Isolated PoP chances (10-20%) will persist through the
day as a slow-moving jet streak tracks eastward.

Simultaneously, a surface perturbation is forecast to develop over
the Texas Panhandle and eject eastward Friday. An Arctic high
pressure center, diving southeast from central Canada, will entrench
itself over the Great Lakes. As the Texas surface low and its
associated upper-level trough eject northeastward, their northern
extent will be suppressed by the strength of the Canadian surface
ridge. This setup favors a more track from the Texas Panhandle
through the Gulf States and into the Southeast. With cold air
established by the surface high and an influx of Gulf moisture,
accumulating snowfall is forecast for the region between the
Tennessee Valley and the Ohio River. While overnight model guidance
suggests a slight northward shift, ensemble probabilities continue
to highlight areas along and north of the I-40 corridor, including
eastern Kentucky, as the primary targets for significant
accumulation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EST WED JAN 21 2026

VFR conditions were holding on for the TAF terminals at 12Z
issuance time, with a deck of 6k ft AGL CIGs working slowly east
through the area. High pressure will continue to depart to the
east to begin the period, while a weakening cold front approaches.
This has led to increasing low level flow, especially just above
the surface yielding some low level wind shear that will be in
place through 18Z. This threat diminishes by early afternoon as
south to southwest surface winds and gusts increase. Moisture will
also increase, with low and mid level clouds pushing into the
western parts of the area this morning - spreading east with time
into the afternoon. As the lower levels saturate, precipitation,
mainly rain, but perhaps a wintry mix near KSYM, will begin to
reach the surface as early as 15Z. Chances would then spread
across the remainder of the area through 00Z. Along with the
precipitation reaching the ground, MVFR, and in some cases at
least brief IFR, should develop and spread southeast in the
afternoon reaching the far southeast to end the period. Look for
sfc winds to pick up from the southwest at 10 to 20 kts into the
afternoon with some higher gusts. The winds diminish somewhat
later this evening but remain out of the southwest.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL/GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...JP/GREIF