Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

839
FXUS63 KJKL 112105
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
405 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warming trend begins Monday, with even warmer weather
  arriving Tuesday as temperatures climb into the 50s.

- Accumulating snow is possible Wednesday night into Thursday as
  a more significant storm system moves into the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 405 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026

20Z sfc analysis shows an area of dry high pressure starting to
build in from the west. This has helped to bring an end to the
impactful snow showers and squalls that affected eastern Kentucky
into mid afternoon. Just a few flurries remain in the far
northeast with most places seeing ample sunshine. Currently,
temperatures are in the upper 20s to lower 30s, most places.
Meanwhile, amid northwesterly winds of 10 to 20 mph with still
some lingering higher gusts, dewpoints are generally in the mid to
upper teens.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are still in
very good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict a deep trough sweeping east of the Ohio
Valley. Rising heights take place in its wake with moderating and
slowing northwest mid level flow tonight bringing only some weak
energy to eastern Kentucky through Monday morning. An additional
weak batch also moves through later Monday night. Meanwhile, a 5h
closed low trough is noted over the Texas Panhandle that will
eventually be our next weather maker by mid to late in the work
week. The still rather small spread among the models supported
using the NBM as the starting point of the forecast grids with
some adjustments needed to include more terrain details for the
temperatures tonight and in particular Monday night.

Sensible weather will feature a chilly night with mostly clear
skies and some limited cold air advection on slackening northwest
winds. Some lingering wet patches may lead to slick spots on
untreated roads after sunset. Look for limited radiational cooling
to make for colder temperatures in the valleys into Monday
morning. Tuesday will be milder but still on the cool side despite
more sunshine as high pressure slinks off to the south. That
night, good radiational cooling conditions and return flow
starting on the ridges will support a decent ridge to valley
temperature split by Tuesday morning.

The changes to the NBM starting point primarily consisted of
adding a touch of extra terrain enhancement for the temperatures
tonight and more so on Monday night. PoPs were kept about zero
through the period - in line with all of the guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026

While high pressure should keep much of the short-term dry,
unfortunately this will not last heading into the extended portion
of the forecast. Tuesday will start off with some increased
troughing aloft, as a surface low pressure center moves across Lake
Superior, bringing an area of precipitation to the Great Lakes
region. Thankfully this precipitation should remain just to our
north, keeping us dry throughout the day. However, the above-
mentioned surface high pressure will exit to our east throughout the
day, bringing the return of strong SW flow. Temperatures will top
out in the mid 50s across much of eastern KY, around 10 degrees
above normal for this time of year. Again, not something to get too
exited about, because this too will be short-lived.

Tuesday night will start to see a transition in the flow aloft. A
shortwave will drop from south-central Canada, and continue to
deepen the overall troughing pattern through Wednesday, bringing
sharply decreasing pressure to much of the Mid/Upper Mississippi and
Ohio Valleys. A closed upper low will then form by Wednesday
evening, deepening as it moves straight across the Ohio Valley and
then Kentucky Wednesday night into Thursday, before finally exiting
Thursday evening and overnight. The ECWMF shows this low getting as
low as 516mb on Thursday afternoon. The result will be very tight
pressure gradients, strong lift, and a deep dive of cold Canadian
air into the region. The return of winter.

At the surface, a cold front will develop ahead of the influx of
cold air on the apex and backside of the upper level trough. This
too will offer a center for lift and instability, leading to
increased precipitation as it moves through eastern KY starting
Tuesday night and continuing into the day Wednesday. Even after the
cold front exits to the SE, the center of the upper level low will
remain in place, continuing the precipitation potential until it
exits Thursday evening. With the warm air in place ahead of this
system, it looks like all precipitation should start off as rain
Tuesday night into Wednesday. However, as soon as the influx of cold
air moves in starting Wednesday evening, temperatures will quickly
drop below freezing, and all rain will transition to snow Wednesday
night. By the time it tapers off late Thursday, the current forecast
has between 1 inch (West) and possibly 4-5 inches (East), based on
WPC QPF, and NBM temperatures. This is still Days 4-5, so there is
room for change, but definitely going to have some impacts. Highs on
Thursday will only reach the upper 20s to low 30s (some 20+ degrees
colder than Tuesday).

Theoretically, had this system dive-bombed further southward,
putting KY more in the cold sector, and we were colder starting out,
these snowfall amounts could be much much more. Thankfully there is
very good agreement amongst the models on the track of this low
across the state, which is giving better confidence to the impacts
and outcomes of this system.

Unfortunately as this system exits Thursday night, we aren`t done
for the extended period. No sooner does this system exit, before
another shortwave and low pressure system begins to impact KY from
the NW. The height falls will be felt first Friday, with the
precipitation arriving shortly after, likely impacting Friday night
and continuing at times through Sunday. Unlike the Tuesday-Thursday
system, there is very very little agreement in this next weekend
system. Kept with the NBM for now, simply because there is such a
wide range in solutions amongst the long-range models that there is
very little confidence towards one particular solution. Expect these
patterns to change, models to start to line up, and precipitation
timing/location to come into better confidence. Right now, it looks
like highs will top out in the mid and upper 30s during this time
period, and lows in the teens and 20s, which should keep the
precipitation type mainly light snow with some rain mixed in during
the day. But again, this could easily change depending on how the
system develops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026

Widespread snow shower and isolated snow squall activity marked
the start of the 18Z aviation forecast cycle with the eastern
terminals still seeing impacts that will briefly reach IFR or
worse conditions as any squall passes. This threat diminishes
from west to east between 18 and 20Z bringing a return to VFR
status. Winds will generally be northwesterly into the evening at
10 to 15 kts with gusts of 20 to 30 kts before diminishing after
dark. Winds then will be light and variable during much of the
night but pick up to between 5 and 10 kts from the southwest by
midday Monday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF