Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

225
FXUS63 KJKL 220700 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
300 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry weather is expected from tonight to Friday, with
  temperatures averaging about 5 degrees below normal.

- Unsettled weather is forecast to return this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1149 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026

After an eventful evening across eastern Kentucky, only a few
isolated showers remain. The cold front that will bring our much
cooler and less humid weather is still just to our northwest, but
has very little notable weather with it--just a weak wind shift
from southwest to northerly. For the overnight, it should be quiet
for most locations, though an isolated shower or rumble of thunder
cannot be ruled out into the early morning. As the more organized
convection has long since departed, the Flood Watch and Severe
Thunderstorm Watches were all cancelled early. Otherwise, expect
some patchy fog, especially in the river valleys and temperatures
settling back into the 60s to near 70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 316 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026

The incoming cold front is the big story this afternoon and evening,
as storms have developed ahead of the boundary and are dropping
south and southeast. An upper level shortwave is also going over the
Great Lakes region, creating deep troughing across the Ohio Valley
this afternoon With a primed environment, especially in our northern
CWA where sheer and CAPE are at their highest, all severe modes are
on the table. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued through 2Z
for the NW 2/3 of the CWA, and a Flood Watch for flash flooding is
in effect for all of eastern KY through 6Z. The biggest concern
remains straight line wind gusts and torrential rainfall with any of
the storms that move through , however, hail and isolated tornadoes
are still on the table. Best instability and shear will slowly
decrease as the storms continue farther southeast this evening and
we start to lose daytime heating/instability, but the storms are
still forecast to make it to the TN and VA border by around midnight.

Heading into the overnight, showers and storms will continue along
the TN border as the cold front slows it`s progression through
eastern KY and deep troughing remains in place across the region.
For locations north of the remaining storms and boundary, drier
air will begin to filter in as winds slowly turn more northward.
However, expect clouds to likely stick around through much of the
night. Kept fog in the forecast, but again did not confine it to
just the river valleys given that most of the CWA will have residual
moisture in place with cooling temperatures.

Tomorrow - Wednesday - will be very opposite of today, thankfully.
Some lingering showers/thunderstorms may be possible along the TN/VA
border as the boundary remains a bit more stationary to our south,
but the remainder of the CWA will continue to see high pressure
build in from the NW. Humidity will be reduced, with temperatures
topping in the upper 70s to low 80s. Models try to show clouds
mixing out throughout the afternoon, but overall there may still be
some cloud cover in place through much of the day.

The filtering of cold air into the region will really be evident
going into Wednesday night. Especially if clouds are able to
continue to clear out, temperatures will drop into the upper 50s to
low 60s, some 10 degrees colder than tonight`s temperature forecast.
Any clearing could also promote fog development, especially in the
deeper valleys that are both cooler and more moisture ridden. Kept
with the previous forecast of valley fog during the overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 440 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026

At the onset of the long term period, upper level troughing will
sit over the northeast CONUS, with an additional area of troughing
associated with a closed upper level low located off the Pacific
Northwest coast. Ridging will prevail between these features and
will be centered over the Southern Plains at the start of the
extended period, with anomalously high 500 mb heights across much
of the central and western CONUS. Locally, eastern Kentucky will
find itself in a region of northwesterly flow aloft for several
days, with the forecast area sandwiched between ridging and
troughing. At the surface, an area of high pressure near the Great
Lakes will keep winds northeasterly on Thursday, ushering in
cooler and drier air. Highs will struggle to rise above the low
80s, and with dewpoints falling into the upper 50s and low 60s,
Thursdays weather will be downright pleasant. Overnight, lows will
plummet into the upper 50s and low 60s, with typical fog
formation in our mainstem river valleys.

PoPs will return by Friday afternoon as a shortwave embedded
within northwesterly flow aloft rotates into our area. Ahead of
this shortwave, the eastward translation of the aforementioned
surface high will allow winds to gradually become more northerly
to northwesterly over the course of the day. This will allow for
modest moisture advection, and given shortwave forcing, isolated
to scattered storms will be possible near the VA line on Friday
afternoon. With the potential for additional embedded impulses,
rain chances will continue through Saturday, although the timing
and details of this activity will need to be refined in later
forecast periods. By Sunday, the northeast trough will deepen
along the Atlantic Coast, with flow aloft becoming increasingly
northerly over the forecast area. Model spread increases
significantly at this point, with rain chances dependent on
embedded impulses that are difficult to resolve this far out. For
now, slight to chance PoPs are forecast through the end of the
period, although uncertainty remains high at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2026

A cold front continues to sag south across eastern Ky and was
located south of I-64 (KIOB to KSYM area) and north of the Mtn
Pkwy (KJKL to KSJS area) at issuance time. Low and mid clouds,
patchy fog and low stratus, as well as showers and a couple of
embedded thunderstorms were occurring south of the boundary.
Patches of low clouds and fog was occurring north of the
boundary. Patchy fog and or low clouds are likely overnight,
especially south of the boundary with ceilings and/or visibility
lowering to MVFR or worse for a few hours through between now and
13Z. Prevailing conditions gradually improve areawide by the 15Z
to 21Z timeframe, as the front drops into VA and TN. A few showers
or a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out from KJKL to KSJS south
through 18Z and thereafter, any lingering convection should be
south of the TAF sites. By 00Z, chances for convection finally
dissipates even near the TN and VA borders. Some fog may develop,
especially in valleys by the 03Z to 06Z timeframe with MVFR or
perhaps lower reductions. Winds initially light and variable,
become northwest/north between ~09z and 21Z at generally less than
10KT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...JP