Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

028
FXUS63 KJKL 172113
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
513 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and humid weather will persist through the weekend, with
  all of the area expecting showers and thunderstorms at some
  point.

- Some thunderstorms could bring locally heavy rainfall and strong
  winds gusts this evening as well as on Saturday and Saturday
  night.

- The air behind a weak cold front may bring some minor relief
  from the muggy conditions on Monday. A more significant cold
  front should bring more showers and thunderstorms at midweek,
  followed by a more noticeable drop in humidity.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 512 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026

Upper level ridging which was present over the area recently
continues to break down and retreat over the Atlantic off the
southeast coast. Deep moisture is returning around its western
periphery and is making it into the JKL forecast area from the
west. With heating and destabilization today, thunderstorms
developed in the deep moisture. Although surface dew points were
also high further east, it`s been tougher to get thunderstorm
development there where the air aloft is still a bit drier. A
lack of wind in the column is resulting in slow and erratic
movement of thunderstorms, with locally heavy rainfall as they
rain out largely where they develop. At this point, the
development has become largely outflow driven. Will look for an
overall decrease in activity as we progress into the night and
instability wanes.

Assuming enough heating occurs, will look for more thunderstorm
development on Saturday, with all places at about equal
probability as the deep moisture envelopes the area. There will be
a little bit more flow aloft out of the west northwest on Saturday
to give some storm movement. However, PWs near 2 inches and a
potential for training of cells could again give locally heavy
rainfall. A wave moving through a northeast CONUS trough will
extend the trough southwestward over the Ohio Valley and support a
cold front to move into or through the JKL forecast area late
Saturday night. The front will support a potential for precip
possibly off peak from the diurnal cycle, depending on frontal
timing (which is still a bit uncertain in models).

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026

(An updated long term discussion will be sent shortly)

Saturday evening into Saturday night, showers and thunderstorms
are anticipated across Eastern Kentucky, as a shortwave moves
through a positively tilted trough covering much of the Northeast
US and Southeast Canada and an associated cold front sags into the
OH Valley and portions of the Appalachians. Farther upstream, a
high amplitude ridge of high pressure will remain over the
Intermountain West, with the apex of the ridge axis extending well
into Alberta and Saskatchewan. Models also depict another upper
level low on the upstream side of the ridge, located in British
Columbia.

The cold front becomes draped across the Ohio Valley late Saturday
night and is expected to continue to sag south into Kentucky
on Sunday. PWATs will be close to 2 inches ahead of the cold
front, dropping to around 1 inch behind it. Storms ahead of the
cold front Saturday evening through Sunday will have potential to
put down localized heavy rainfall. The WPC has placed most of the
Big Sandy and southern portions of the Kentucky River Basins in a
marginal ERO Saturday through Sunday morning. While all of the
better severe weather parameters (especially shear) stay north of
the forecast area and in the Ohio Valley, there may be a low end
severe threat across Kentucky. Moderate instability is anticipated
and water loaded downdrafts could result in strong to damaging
wind gusts from isolated to scattered activity early Saturday
evening. Locations in and around thunderstorms may experience
gusty and erratic winds. Convective allowing models suggest a
weakening line of storms may move into eastern KY around sunset or
a bit after and there could be a small wind gust threat from this
as well. The SPC has the entire area under a marginal risk for
severe weather Saturday and more southern location on Sunday ahead
of the front where instability may be strongest.

Through Sunday, as the upper level low progresses deeper into
Northeast Canada, the trailing cold front slowly slides off to the
east producing additional showers and storms along the way. The
upper level low over British Columbia rides over the ridge of high
pressure over the Intermountain West. Height rises are expected
Sunday night through Monday, leading to a break in active weather
and mostly sunny skies Monday.

By Tuesday, the upper level low that was modeled to ride over the
ridge, spills down the lee side, into the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley. Another cold front will pass trough the region Sometime
Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. Some models are suggesting
a great deal of moisture accompanying this system and preceding the
frontal passage. There should be stronger flow aloft/more shear
with this system compared to this weekend, and strong to locally
damaging winds will be possible with any storms along or ahead of
the front. SPC has highlighted this potential mainly for northern
parts of eastern KY. However, details and timing of mesoscale
features will likely change over the coming days. This will continue
to be monitored. After showers and storms move through with the
cold frontal passage much drier air is forecasted to move into the
area. This will contribute to a dry Thursday.

Temperatures generally range from  the mid to upper 80s during the
afternoons and upper 60s to lower 70s at night, at least through
Tuesday. After the frontal passage Tuesday temperatures are expected
to cool some, ranging from the low to mid 80s during the afternoons,
cooling into the lower 60s at night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 512 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026

Scattered thunderstorms with localized VLIFR conditions were
ongoing over the western portion of the area at the start of the
period, and have expanded a bit further eastward since then. The
chaotic nature of their development makes forecasting them much in
advance at any given location problematic. As a result PROB30
groups were used in most TAFs, with the exception of KSJS, where
precip is not likely to make it before it fades tonight.

Assuming enough breaks in the clouds tonight after precip wanes,
fog development can be expected, especially where rain occurred.
At this point, have only included it in TAFs at KSME and KLOZ,
but updates may need to consider it elsewhere, depending on how
the rain pans out. The fog will bring localized IFR or worse
conditions. The fog will dissipate on Saturday morning, but
additional thunderstorm development could be underway before the
period ends at 18Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...HAL