Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

918
FXUS63 KJKL 250905
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
505 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Look for areas of fog, locally dense, to affect places mainly
  along and north of the Mountain Parkway through mid- morning.

- Wet and humid weather will last through most of the upcoming
  week, but some drying may occur by next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026

08Z sfc analysis shows weak low pressure through Kentucky with a
stalled front laying over the area. As a result, even though the
deeper moisture has shifted off to the east, some showers remain
in far southeast Kentucky with patchy drizzle to the northwest of
the rain. In addition, low clouds and areas of dense fog are found
over northern parts of the JKL CWA with patchy dense fog
elsewhere. High humidity throughout the lower Ohio Valley
continues and as such dewpoints are close to temperatures. Similar
to last night they are holding in the mid 60s most places, amid
light to calm winds.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in fairly
good agreement aloft, through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict persistent strong h5 ridging off the
Southeast Coast. This is helping to anchor a stream of southwest
mid-level wind flow through Kentucky even as deeper troughing
passes by to the northeast this morning. Meanwhile, another area
of troughing is located over eastern Texas but is opening up and
allowing its energy to be swept up in the southwest air stream at
mid-levels. As a result, some energy and a more distinct impulse
head into the state from this later this evening and overnight. A
shift in the Southeast ridge seems to be enough to shunt this wave
a tad to the northwest as it approaches on Tuesday. Given the
high correlation the models aloft, the NBM was used as the
starting point for the short term grids with little changes
needed. The main adjustments to the initialization included adding
higher resolution timing and placement details for the PoP grids
through Tuesday from the latest CAMs guidance.

Sensible weather features what should be more of a lull in the
shower and thunderstorm activity for the last day of the holiday
weekend with PoP chances less than 50 percent for all but the far
southeast parts of the JKL CWA - where the front will stall out.
Even in places that have a better shot at seeing more convection,
QPF amounts look to be lighter and any thunderstorms less
organized than those of yesterday. This lull does not last long
for the area, though, as more showers and storms will likely
develop and move in from the southwest later tonight with a wave
moving northeast along the front and dragging it back northwest
and deeper into the area on Tuesday. As such, the threat of heavy
rain returns on Tuesday for the entire CWA continuing this very
damp latter half of May.

The changes to the NBM starting point once again mainly consisted
of including PoP and thunder details from the latest CAMs
guidance through Tuesday evening. As for temperatures and
dewpoints, they were not adjusted much given the moist air mass -
but did shave the highs back toward modeled hourly temps each
afternoon and likewise brought the lows up a tad at night as the
high dewpoints limit nightly temperature drops with an overall
small diurnal temperature trace.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 505 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026

The main change to the extended forecast this morning was to
tweak highs and lows to a more narrow range given the persistent
high moisture environment looking to hold over the area through
Thursday. The pattern shift that could bring some now welcomed
drier weather looks to be on track for the end of the week and
through at least the start of next weekend.

The previous long term discussion follows:

The forecast period opens on Tuesday with a stalled boundary
oriented west-to-east across the Commonwealth. This boundary will
serve as the primary focus for shower and thunderstorm development
through much of the upcoming week. In line with previous model
suites and forecast packages, heavy rainfall indices remain largely
unchanged. Forecast PWATs continue to range from 1.70 inches to 1.90
inches, driven by robust moisture advection. These high precipitable
water values, paired with skinny CAPE profiles noted in model
soundings, continue to indicate highly efficient rainfall production
along the boundary.

Long-term guidance hints at a breakdown of this wet and stormy
pattern late in the week as the stationary front sags southward as a
cold front, bringing an end to the widespread precipitation.
Nonetheless, prior to the cold frontal passage late in the week,
forecast QPF ranges from 0.75 inches in the far northeastern
portions of the CWA to 1.25 inches near the Cumberland Plateau. As
noted in previous discussions, these QPF values carry a heavy
caveat, as totals will certainly fluctuate based on convective
activity and exactly where mesoscale bands of heavier rainfall set
up.

By Friday, the front is forecast to drop south of the region. While
it will initially remain a stationary boundary to our south, showers
and storms are forecast to increase again by the weekend as the
boundary lifts back northward as a warm front. Temperatures through
the period will remain seasonal, with highs in the upper 70s to
lower 80s and overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. Once the front
sags south, temperatures will cool a few degrees, allowing overnight
lows to drop into the 50s.

In summary, an active and unsettled weather pattern will dominate
the region into next week as a stationary boundary stalls across the
Commonwealth. While seasonal temperatures persist, repeated rounds
of rainfall, heavy at times, will bring an increasing threat for
flash flooding and eventual river flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026

Showers will gradually decline or become more drizzle through the
next few hours for most of the forecast area - persisting longest
over far southeastern Kentucky. Aviation conditions mainly ranged
from VFR to MVFR at TAF issuance, but are expected to worsen to
at least MVFR area-wide during the rest of the night and could
fall to IFR/LIFR in some areas - particularly KIOB and KSYM. Slow
improvement eventually begins from north to south by mid to late
afternoon. Winds will be light and variable through the next 24
hours.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...VORST/GREIF
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF