Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

058
FXUS63 KJKL 231200
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
800 AM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers will exit by mid-morning, giving way to clearing skies
  and a cooler afternoon. Patchy frost is possible tonight as
  temperatures drop into the upper 20s to mid 30s.

- A critically dry air mass will settle over the region, dropping
  afternoon humidity levels into the 10 to 20 percent range on
  Tuesday, and still sub-30 percent for most areas on Wednesday.

- Temperatures will soar 20 degrees above normal on Thursday. A
  strong cold front will then bring widespread rain and a chance
  of thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday.

- Much colder air returns behind the front this weekend, bringing
  the potential for widespread sub-freezing temperatures Friday
  and Saturday nights.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 615 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026

The cold front and its associated line of weakening showers should
depart fully into Virginia by 7 AM. In the wake of the front, look
for temperatures falling into the 50s southeast and 40s northwest
on a stiff northerly breeze. Low clouds may produce some lingering
spotty light rain or drizzle through mid-morning, especially
along the Pottsville Escarpment and over the higher elevations
adjacent to the KY-VA border.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 340 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026

Regional radar shows a weakening line of elevated showers and
thunderstorms trailing behind a cold front dropping southeast across
the forecast area at 730Z. The latest surface analysis shows an
around 1002 mb surface low over the Chesapeake Bay while the
frontal boundary extends WSW into southern West Virginia and
across eastern Kentucky (from Pikeville to Somerset) and then SW
across Middle Tennessee. Ahead of the front, temperatures are in
the low to mid 70s but quickly drop back into the lower to mid
50s on the cool side of the boundary. Upstream, an ~1031 mb
surface high is situated over the Mid-Missouri Valley.

The aforementioned cold front will continue to drop southeast early
this morning and depart into VA/TN by around 10Z with the trailing
showers (and possible rumbles of thunder) following by around 14Z.
The most numerous activity will be northeast of US-421 with only
isolated to widely scattered convection further south and west.
Minimal instability (250 J/kg or less of MUCAPE and waning) will
limit any thunderstorm coverage in addition to overall convection
intensity. Rainfall amounts should range from nothing to a few
hundredths over most of the Cumberland River Basin up to around
0.25 inches over northeastern counties.

Clouds will gradually lift and thin later this morning and afternoon
as a brisk, drying north to northeasterly breeze becomes established
over the CWA as the aforementioned surface high drifts east to
over Lake Erie tonight and across the Central Appalachians on
Tuesday. A very dry continental air mass wrapping clockwise around
the high will drop dew points into the 20s by this evening and
into the teens or lower for much of the area on Tuesday.
Temperatures will cool off behind the frontal boundary but only to
near seasonable norms--highs in the 50s to near 60 this afternoon
and in the mid 50s to mid 60s, north to south, on Tuesday.
Tonight`s lows are expected to range from the upper 20s in the
cooler valleys northeast to the mid 30s near Lake Cumberland. Some
patchy frost is possible in the sheltered spots. These
temperatures combined with the very low dew points will lead to
parched conditions across eastern Kentucky on Tuesday with
widespread minimum humidity levels in the 10 to 20 percent range.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026

The period begins with an upper level ridge centered over the
southwest Conus to northwest Mexico that extends north into
sections of the western Conus while down stream of this an upper
level trough is progged to extend from eastern Canada into the
eastern Conus. Meanwhile, west of the western Conus ridging, an
upper level low and associated trough is expected to be nearing
the BC coast into the Pacific Northwest. At the sfc, a ridge of
high pressure anticipated to be centered east of the Delmarva
should extend south to the Carolinas and also to portions of the
Great Lakes and OH Valley. Elsewhere, a frontal zone is expected
to initially extend from north of the Bahamas across the FL
peninsula and the northeastern Gulf into the Southern Plains.
Meanwhile, a northern stream cold front should be sagging across
the Northern Great Lakes to the SD vicinity and then into sections
of WY and MT to BC.

Tuesday night to Wednesday night, the axis of the trough extending
from Canada into the eastern Conus should shift east and northeast
into the Northeast to east of the eastern seaboard. Meanwhile, the
guidance consensus is for the northern Mexico to western Conus ridge
to flatten as multiple impulses/shortwaves move from the Pacific
across the Northwest Conus to Northern Rockies and east near the
US/Canadian border. This ridge should build into the central and
southern plains to western Gulf and lower MS Valley. Eastern KY
should remain in WNW to NW flow aloft with a shortwave potentially
arriving into the Lower to Middle OH Valley Wednesday night while
overall 500 mb height tendencies are rises. Given recent dryness and
recent trends along with rainfall from the ongoing system to be
light for most areas, opted to go more pessimistic with dewpoints
for Wednesday than the NBM deterministic. Low level winds in the
southeast should have a downslope component at least initially
supporting hedging dewpoints more toward the drier end of guidance
in support of continued prescribed/controlled burning operations
across eastern KY. These factors under departing sfc high pressure
should result in continued dry weather and potentially sub 30
percent, if not sub 25 percent rh in some cases Wednesday afternoon.
Otherwise, the approaching shortwave and the boundary initially
south of the area returning as a warm front into the OH Valley could
result in a few showers Wednesday night.

Thursday to Friday night, the shortwave trough that per guidance
consensus is expected to be nearing the region late Wed night to
early should cross the area Thu morning into early Thu afternoon. At
the same time, weakening upper ridging should build further east
across the Gulf and portions of the southeast Conus and guidance
generally has the ridging also building back into the western Conus.
Downstream a shortwave trough/impulse is progged to move near the
US/Canadian border and across the Great Lakes to St. Lawrence Valley
and to the Northeast Thu to Thu night. Overall, the pattern
amplifies again in general with the ridging persisting from northern
Mexico/Four Corners region north across the western Conus to Canada
and also east across the Gulf while troughing moves from the Great
Lakes and upper to mid MS Valley into the eastern Conus. The axis of
this trough would cross eastern KY later Fri to Fri night. Meanwhile
the sfc low associated with the warm front lifting into eastern
KY late Wed night to near dawn on Thu treks from the central Conus
toward the Great Lakes, the warm front lifts north and northeast
of eastern KY on Thursday. In the warm sector on Thursday, temperatures
should climb to 20 or more degrees above normal. Moisture and
instability across eastern KY should remain limited for Thursday
with MUCAPE per ENS mean on the order of 500 J/kg or less. 12Z ENS
mean has bulk shear climbing to around 35 to 45KT by late Thu
evening. However, as the cold front associated with the developing
trough into the eastern Conus drops into the OH Valley Thu night
and across eastern KY into the day on Fri combined with some 500
mb height falls, convection will become more probable including
the potential for some thunder. Some recent GEFS and/or ENS based
AI guidance has had probabilities indicating the possibility of
strong to severe storms in the OH Valley though these have
remained centered north of eastern KY in general. If any stronger
storms were to occur Thu evening/night it would be more probable
for those to be north of the Mtn Pkwy if not north of I-64. The
boundary should drop south and southeast of eastern KY Fri
evening/night in advance of the trough axis. Temperatures by dawn
on Saturday should fall into the upper 20s to mid 30s range behind
the boundary. If sufficient moisture lingers, some snow could mix
with in any lingering rain showers in the higher terrain nearer
to the VA border late Fri night.

Saturday to Sunday, Behind the trough axis, sfc high pressure builds
from the Central Conus into the OH Valley to Appalachian region
while WSW to NW flow aloft persists. The airmass per 00Z
operational GFS and ECMWF should have 1000-500 mb layer rh
dropping to about the 15 to 32 percent range which if realized
would result in rather quick drying and clearing on Saturday
morning. The airmass will also be colder and temperatures should
drop to near if not a few degrees below normal for highs on
Saturday. The current forecast has sub 30 percent min rh across
eastern KY for Saturday afternoon with some areas possibly sub 20
percent. The dry airmass should support cold overnight lows
Saturday night that would likely be lower at least in valleys
compared to the NBM deterministic values and sub freezing lows are
probable for those areas. High pressure is currently progged to
shift east on Sunday and return flow should result in highs a few
degrees above normal to end next weekend. Overall, the Saturday to
Sunday period should feature precipitation free weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026

Widespread IFR or worse ceilings were noted at the start of the
TAF period. However, drier air will filter in on northerly flow,
causing a slow improvement to VFR by early to mid afternoon.
Winds will be north northwesterly at 8 to 13 kts with gusts up to
20 kts possible through the afternoon before slackening this
evening.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEERTSON