Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

795
FXUS63 KJKL 270040 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
840 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will be prevalent through Saturday
  night or Sunday, followed by much lower probabilities during
  most of the work week.

- Heat and humidity will become oppressive during the new week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 835 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026

A relative lull in convective activity is currently occurring
across eastern KY. However, additional convection will near the
region toward midnight. Hourly pops and temps were freshened up
based on recent radar and observation trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 445 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026

Modest zonal flow aloft will continue through Saturday, with
minor shortwaves rippling through it. A very moist air mass will
also persist, without any discernible cap to inhibit convection
after some assist from heating or upper support. This creates a
situation favorable for showers/thunderstorms, but with low
confidence in the details for timing/location. High PW around 2"
will also give a potential for heavy rainfall. The Flood Watch was
expanded over the rest of the area to line up with issuances from
adjacent offices, but with inconsistencies in models, confidence
for the extent of potential hydro problems is marginal. There have
also been some isolated strong to severe gusts in today`s storms,
and the same thing won`t be ruled out in pulse storms on Saturday
due to the amount of precip loading in the wet air mass.

Strengthening upper level ridging over the Mississippi Valley
will begin to raise our geopotential heights Saturday night and
turn our flow aloft out of the northwest. With this we`ll have
warming and drying mid levels and a reduction in convective
precip.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 517 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026

The long-term period opens on the first day of the new week and also
of a weather pattern change. Model agreement is good on Sunday,
showing an upper-level high over the Mississippi Delta with a
building ridge axis extending northward into Northwestern Ontario
and Northeast Manitoba. Meanwhile, an unseasonably deep upper-
level low resides over the Northern Rockies and adjacent regions.
At the surface, a weak cold front will be draped through the Ohio
Valley and likely over or just northeast of the JKL CWA. High
pressure resides over the Southeast US and out over the Central
Atlantic.

High pressure will strengthen at the surface and become more
entrenched over the eastern Kentucky Coalfields through midweek as
the upper-level high strengthens and drifts northeast, eventually
peaking near ~598 dam across the JKL CWA on Wednesday and
Thursday. Initially, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are likely to continue on Sunday with the frontal
boundary still in the vicinity. As that frontal boundary retreats
northeast early next week, heat and humidity will build as 850 hPa
temperatures soar well above 20C. The threat for storms will
become very isolated by Tuesday and Wednesday with the upper level
high in close proximity. More widespread shower and thunderstorm
chances return heading into the July 4th weekend, but increasing
model disparity lends low confidence in the specific details.

In sensible terms, scattered showers and storms can be expected
again on Sunday with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows from
65 to 70 degrees. Mostly clear and hot conditions follow for the
entire work week with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s Monday
and lower to mid 90s from Tuesday onward. Nighttime lows stay
mostly in the 70s. Heat indices will reach new highs each
afternoon, with many places eclipsing the 100F mark on multiple
days. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible each
afternoon and may bring localized relief for some, but most
locations will probably stay dry from Monday to Thursday, perhaps
becoming a little more unsettled for Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026

At issuance time, a lull in convection was occurring over eastern
KY in between areas of convection now in WV and upstream over
central KY and southern IN. VFR was reported across the region at
issuance time. Upstream convection should arrive between 01Z and
03Z and progress east. This should lead to periods of MVFR and
IFR reductions and the potential for thunder on station through at
least 06Z. Some PROB30 groups were used for this and additional
rounds of convection should occur between 06Z and 12Z as well.
Overall, showers/thunderstorms will be a possibility through the
period, but there remains rather low confidence in timing/
location, especially from 12Z onward and this continues to
preclude using more than PROB30 in TAFs.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...HAL/JP