Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

566
FXUS63 KJKL 011628
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1228 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and mainly dry weather will prevail through the weekend.

- Frost is increasingly likely late Saturday night and early
  Sunday and could be extensive in valleys.

- The next area-wide potential for showers and thunderstorms will
  be Monday into Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1228 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026

Just a quick refresh of the grids to incorporate the latest
surface observations and touch up PoP based on radar trends. Grids
have been saved and sent.

UPDATE Issued at 757 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026

Fog in the mainstem river valleys and tributaries should lift over
the next hour or so. There is also likely some light frost in the
coldest hollows -- PWS shows temperatures as cold as 34F near
Mize in Morgan County -- but any frost coverage should be patchy
and it will melt quickly as temperatures rise. Forecast through
the remainder of the day remains on track with increasing clouds
and some low shower chances ahead of a weak cold front.
Temperatures will remain cool with highs only in the mid 60s north
of lower 70s warmer southeastern valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 549 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026

Current surface observations show a surface low centered over
northwest Indiana, with an associated cold front draped to the
southwest into Illinois. Current satellite imagery shows a denser
area of cloud cover associated with this front to our west;
meanwhile, in eastern Kentucky, valley fog has formed as
temperatures have fallen into the mid 30s to low 40s, courtesy of
relatively clear skies associated with an area of high pressure.
Given these fair conditions, light winds, and cool temperatures,
patchy frost formation cannot be ruled out early this morning,
especially in our northern hollows. However, temperatures are
expected to rise relatively quickly after dawn; this should allow
for fog to dissipate and should alleviate any frost formation
concerns by mid morning.

Throughout the day, the surface low will continue to translate
eastward, pulling the aforementioned cold front through eastern
Kentucky by this afternoon. As the front approaches, cloud cover
will increase, bringing a chance for rain to the northern portion
of the forecast area. However, given limited moisture return ahead
of the front, the environment preceding the front will be fairly
dry, and PoPs were kept accordingly low (15-30% over the Big Sandy
and Licking River basins, with lower chances further southwest).
Due to southerly prefrontal winds, high temperatures will be
marginally warmer than yesterday, ranging from the mid 60s into
the low 70s. Winds will become more northerly following the
frontal passage, allowing overnight temperatures to once again
fall into the upper 30s and low 40s with this reinforcing cool
air. Lingering clouds associated with the front should prevent a
significant ridge-valley split from being realized; however, cloud
cover trends will need to be monitored, particularly with respect
to frost potential as high pressure builds behind the front.
Should clearing occur, patchy frost would become more likely,
especially near and north of I-64.

With high pressure building in behind the front, Saturday looks
to be a relatively tranquil day. A low pressure system tracking
along the Gulf Coast to the Atlantic will bring much needed rain
to the southeastern US; however, given the southern positioning of
this low, it appears most likely that associated precipitation
will stay south of our area at this time. Thus, thicker mid and
high cloud cover will largely diminish over the course of the day,
even as an extensive cu field is expected to develop. Continued
CAA under an upper level trough axis will keep high temperatures
well below average for this time of year; additionally, as the
trough axis passes, a few sprinkles cannot be ruled out,
particularly in the Lake Cumberland area, although dry postfrontal
air will keep PoPs low (10-15%). This cool and dry air will set
the stage for a potentially frosty night as we move into the long
term period.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 425 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026

The long term period will feature persistent upper level low
pressure over southeast Canada with troughing extending southward
over the eastern CONUS. The various waves/impulses rotating through
the trough and morphing it will determine our day to day weather.
The pattern will also favor below normal temperatures, at least
initially.

One of the waves moving through the large scale trough is expected
to be passing over on Saturday evening and departing to the east
overnight. Moisture will be very limited, but even so, with very
cold air aloft, models generate a few diurnal showers over western
and central KY which last into the evening. Our surface dew points
should be slightly lower (upper 20s to low 30s as opposed to
mid 30s further west), and by the time the wave approaches the
JKL forecast area peak heating will have also passed. That being
the case, our forecast is dry, with only some clouds from the wave
carrying into the evening. As the wave departs to the east,
clouds should decrease Saturday night. With surface ridging
building in from the west, winds will be light on Saturday night.
With that setup, it still appears that frost will affect many
places by dawn on Sunday. LREF probabilities for temperatures
colder than 37F range from 40 percent near Lake Cumberland to 90
percent in eastern and northern locales.

The surface ridging slips to our southeast early in the new week and
more impulses move through the flow in the upper trough. These will
work to deepen the trough and send another cold front southward. The
flow between the high/ridge to our southeast and the approaching
cold front will give us increasing southwesterly winds and warm air
advection early in the new week. Moisture off the Gulf should
also work its way around the periphery of the high ahead of the
cold front, supporting showers/thunderstorms with the front. The
main issue for our area will be the timing and evolution of the
front and its precip, with models not united on this. The most
likely time for significant widespread precip is in a window from
Tuesday night to Wednesday evening, but the forecast remains
rather generalized at this point due to the uncertainties. Some
spottier precip can`t be ruled out earlier in the new week, but
support and moisture look to be more limited this far south until
the main cold front approaches. Behind the cold front, more waves
passing through the upper trough are expected to continue
deepening it, and this could still bring lighter showers to our
area on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026

Outside of temporary visibility reductions due to fog in the deep
mainstem river valleys, VFR conditions will prevail for the
duration of the 12Z TAF period. Mid and high level clouds this
morning will give to more widespread lower cloud coverage this
afternoon as a weak front moves through. There will be a low
chance of rain showers associated with the front, so PROB30 groups
were retained for our far northeastern terminals (SYM and SJS).
Any precipitation that falls should remain light, so visibility
reductions are not anticipated. Light variable winds will
initially become southwest 7 to 12 kts with gusts up to 20 kts by
midday, then turning more northwesterly following the frontal
passage. Cloud cover will linger following the frontal passage,
but will remain solidly VFR.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VORST
SHORT TERM...FAGAN/GEERTSON
LONG TERM...HAL/GEERTSON
AVIATION...FAGAN/GEERTSON/MARCUS