Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

016
FXUS63 KJKL 232112
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
412 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Accumulating light snow showers will continue into this
   evening, especially east of I-75.

-  Some of the stronger snow showers may produce briefly moderate
   to heavy accumulation rates and sudden visibility reductions.

-  Much colder air lingers into Tuesday morning, but a mid-week
   warming trend remains on track with soaking rains to follow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 412 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026

Upslope snow showers and flurries continue across eastern Kentucky
this mid-afternoon amidst persistent northwest flow on the backside
of the blizzard now buffeting New England. Conditions remain cold,
with temperatures ranging through the 20s below 2,000 feet and in
the teens above. Accumulations of dry, fluffy snow have varied
substantially over the last 30 hours, ranging from a dusting in the
Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland areas to ~1-3 inches from the
Pottsville Escarpment southeastward, where upslope snow showers
have been most persistent. Deeper moisture wrapping around the
backside of the upper-level trough--responsible for the East Coast
blizzard--is gradually shifting east of the JKL area this
afternoon. In its wake, a low-level moisture plume from Lake
Michigan is approaching the JKL CWA on continued weak low-level
CAA. Beyond forced orographic uplift and perhaps very weak low-
level instability, little other forcing for ascent or snow shower
organization exists. While deep upper-level troughing dominates
east of the Mississippi, strong upper-level ridging is in place
from the High Plains westward.

The status quo remains this evening as the thin moisture plume
arrives from Lake Michigan, supporting lake-enhanced orographic
snow showers and flurries persisting into the evening. Activity
diminishes overnight as low-level CAA ceases and the moisture
plume dries up (by ~03Z west of I-75 to ~12Z along the KY-VA
border). Additional accumulations should be light, ranging from a
dusting to a half inch for most locations (perhaps up to 1-1.5
inches in the higher elevations of Pike, Letcher, and Harlan
counties). Deterioration of driving conditions is possible on
untreated roads as surface temperatures fall back below freezing
this evening. Tuesday brings improving weather conditions as
ridging nudges into the region behind the departing trough and
low-level WAA takes hold. A quick- moving but potent shortwave
trough slides down the eastern side of the ridge, supporting a
clipper low tracking from Alberta to north of the Great Lakes by
late Tuesday night. The system`s warm conveyor belt jet ramps up
across the Commonwealth Tuesday night. Mid-level moistening and
lift with this system appears sufficient to generate light
precipitation over our area in some guidance; however, abundant
dry air below 700 hPa likely keeps most, if not all, precipitation
as virga.

In sensible weather terms, look for snow showers and flurries to
become confined east of I-75 this evening and largely to the far
southeastern mountains by midnight. It will be cold, with low
temperatures ranging from the upper teens to lower 20s. For
Tuesday, mostly to partly sunny skies prevail with highs in the
lower to mid 40s. Clouds return Tuesday night, with early low
temperatures in the mid 30s for most locations before thermometers
hold steady or slowly rise overnight as a southwesterly breeze
develops.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 355 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026

The main change to the extended forecast this morning was to
add more terrain distinction to nighttime temperatures for a
couple of the nights over the upcoming weekend. Also, we are still
watching an excessive rain potential for Thursday into Friday
morning from the next well developed weather system passing
through.

The previous long term discussion follows:

The long term forecast period continues to be defined by a general
warming trend and the approach of two mid-week systems. While the
most recent runs of the deterministic forecast guidance models have
come in a little bit below the blended NBM baseline, temperatures
are still expected to return to near- or just-above-normal readings
by mid-week. This relative warmth bolsters confidence that all
precipitation associated with the two aforementioned systems will
fall in the form of rain, although we will have to closely monitor
the potential for locally heavy rainfall with the second one. The
synoptic pattern remains progressive headed into next weekend, but
model spread significantly increases in the latter stages of the
period. This reduces confidence in sensible weather specifics, but
above-normal temperatures are currently forecast for next weekend.

After a chilly start to the day, temperatures climb into the lower
half of the 40s on Tuesday afternoon. As midlevel ridging briefly
builds into the region, the corresponding surface high will shift
into the Southeastern CONUS. This shift establishes a regime of
southwesterly surface flow here in Kentucky, and those winds are
forecast to strengthen overnight in response to a tightening
pressure gradient. This yields warm air advection, as does the
approximately 40 knot 925mb low level jet out of the southwest.
Further aloft, models resolve 50-60 knot 850mb winds, but these will
be more out of the west-southwest. In the mid and upper levels,
winds retain more of a northwesterly component on the backside of
the previous day`s mid/upper level trough. Altogether, this suggests
that the depth of the moisture return out ahead of Wednesday
morning`s clipper-type system will be limited. The best
precipitation chances accordingly remain displaced to the northeast
of the forecast area, but expect increased cloud cover and breezy
winds overnight. Such a set up will insulate overnight lows to above-
freezing values before a cold front associated with that system
pushes through on Wednesday morning.

That boundary looks rather weak, with only a subtle shift in winds
towards the west and little to no associated cold air advection
behind it. Shortwave ridging may briefly clear the clouds on
Wednesday afternoon, but the resultant increase in solar radiation
would allow afternoon highs to climb towards the 50s. Furthermore,
the progressive nature of the overarching synoptic pattern will
allow another troughing disturbance to approach from the west on
Wednesday evening. Models resolve this feature as much stronger and
better defined than its predecessor, and it has the potential to
produce greater sensible weather impacts as a result.

As leeward cyclogenesis takes place upstream on Wednesday night, the
previous day`s boundary is expected to lift back north as a warm
front. As surface winds back towards the south in response, models
generally resolve the return of 35-45 knot flow at 925 mb and 50-60
knot flow at 850mb out ahead of it on Thursday. This time, all of
this low level flow will be out of the southwest, and the deeper
nature of the parent trough means that the moisture return out ahead
of this second system is expected to be much more effective than the
first. Median PWAT values surge to around 1.00 inch in the latest
LREF Grand Ensemble data, and this is on the higher end of
climatological guidance. The mean moisture parameter data remains
lower then the median, suggesting that there could be a skew towards
lower values, but the signal for excessive rainfall does not look as
impressive as it was at this time yesterday. A Marginal (Level 1/5)
Excessive Rainfall Outlook remains in place for the entire forecast
area on Thursday, but the timing, track, and exact evolution of the
resultant surface low pressure system is currently uncertain. If a
more southeastern track comes to fruition, the better moisture
return regime could be confined to the south of the forecast area.
Recent ECMWF guidance has trended in this direction, and the
previous QPF signal in the EFI/SOT has become more muted. Cloud
cover and rain chances are still expected to increase overnight into
Thursday morning in response to this set up, then persist throughout
much of the day. The positive tilt of the parent trough, persistent
cloud cover, and temps in the 40s/50s will limit the amount of
available shear and instability, and thus the thunderstorm chances
with this system. However, some of the rain showers could still
contain heavier rainfall rates, especially immediately ahead of the
system`s cold front and in the southern half of the forecast area.
There, lift will be maximized, and there is a 30-50% chance of at
least 1 inch of rain across the forecast area by the time the FROPA
occurs.

Most models depict the return of postfrontal ridging on Friday into
Saturday, with quasi-zonal flow aloft. This allows the warming trend
to continue through the end of the long term forecast period, but
the forecast uncertainty compounds towards the very end of the
period. The standard deviation of the available ensemble-based MOS
temperature guidance spikes to between 5 and 7 next weekend, with
even greater numbers in the precipitation guidance. In the baseline
NBM guidance used to populate the long term forecast grids, this
corresponds with a 15 to 25 degree spread between the 25th and 75th
percentile temperature guidance and a prolonged period of slight
chance PoPs early next week. It is difficult to pinpoint specific
forecast details amidst that magnitude of model spread, so interests
with outdoor plans next weekend are encouraged to stay tuned to
future forecast updates.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026

MVFR conditions were commonplace at the 18Z TAF issuance as
light upslope snow and flurries continue. Winds are generally
running from the northwest at 5 to 15 kts, with some gusts
approaching 20 kts. Scattered snow showers remain more prevalent
east of I-75 with the more sustained and persistent snow showers
in higher elevations adjacent to the KY-VA border. Some brief
LIFR/IFR reductions, or the lower end of the MVFR range, may
occur with heavier snow showers during the insolation enhanced
activity through 00Z, impacting the northeast terminals most.
Improving conditions should start to take hold west to east
through evening hours and continue during the upcoming night.
Winds will average from the northwest at 5 to 15 kts with some
gusts near 20 kts this afternoon - diminishing a bit in the
evening down to light overnight.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for KYZ087-
117.

Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for KYZ088-
110-113-115-118>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...MARCUS/GREIF
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF