Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

324
FXUS63 KJKL 130550 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1250 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of freezing fog will affect mainly the higher terrain of
  much of eastern Kentucky early this morning.

- Another light, to possibly moderate, snowfall is likely this
  evening into early on Sunday, mainly north and east of a Stanton
  to Jackson to Whitesburg line.

- An arctic airmass moves into our region for late tonight and
  Sunday with significantly below normal temperatures and cold
  wind chills.

- Nearer to, if not above normal, temperatures are expected from
  Tuesday through the end of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2025

A large area of low clouds and dense fog has descended through
much of eastern Kentucky on account of the snowpack and some
warming off the surface. This is affecting the higher elevations
and ridgetops of the area hardest. With most places below
freezing some of the fog will contain frozen water droplets and
could deposit on various surfaces with a potential for slick spots
on area roads. For this reason, an SPS has been issued for the
next several hours and may have to be re-upped before dawn as the
core threat area is expected to drift slowly south. Otherwise,
updated the grids with the inclusion of the latest obs and trends
for the T/Td/Sky grids. These adjustments have been sent to the
NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones, WSW,
and SAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 730 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2025

Some generally minor adjustments were made to hourly grids based
on recent observations mainly to include patchy fog where some
stratus build down and snowmelt appear to be leading to fog on
ridgetops in the KPBX to KCPF to KJKL. With low dewpoint
depressions following some snowmelt, any areas with clearing of
low and mid clouds may experience additional or renewed patchy
fog if not areas of fog in some places. The more southern and
southeastern locations would be the most probable locations for
that.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 4 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2025

Late this afternoon, an upper level low was centered in southwest
Ontario within an upper level trough that extended from Central
portions of Canada into the mid to upper MS Valley downstream of
an upper ridge over much western Conus. Weak height rises are
currently occurring the OH Valley behind the system that crossed
eastern KY last night to early this morning. At the surface, a
frontal zone extended from the Carolinas to a sfc wave eastern TN
with this boundary trailing into the Southern Plains to CO front
range/lee of the Rockies. Further upstream, a sfc low associated
with the upper low in Ontario was centered in Ontario with a cold
front trialing into the Central Plains. Some breaks in the low
clouds and clearing has developed over much of the Commonwealth
though low clouds persisted in much of the northern half of the
CWA. Temperatures have reached the upper 30s to low 40s where the
clouds scattered or cleared with mainly low to mid 30s under the
low clouds.

Tonight and Saturday, the upper low should meander to the northern
Great Lakes vicinity with an initial shortwave rotating around it
moving across the Great Lakes tonight and into Sunday. Meanwhile,
a shortwave moving around the ridging in the western Conus to
southwest Canada is expected to trek southeast to the western
Great Lakes to mid MS Valley by Saturday evening. Guidance also
has a jet streak north of the OH River on Saturday. This jet
streak likely provides some favorable potential right entrance
region dynamics in the more northern portions of the area Saturday
evening before it departs to the north and east overnight. This
will coincide with the mid level shortwave trough rotating into
the Lower OH Valley late Saturday afternoon and evening. The axis
of this shortwave trough should move east of eastern KY late
Saturday night. Meanwhile, at the surface, the low tracking across
Canada should track from Ontario to Quebec to the Maritimes/St.
Lawrence Valley through the period. The trailing cold front should
cross eastern KY during the day on Saturday. The colder air will
gradually move in with 850 mb temperatures progged to drop below
0C from north to south from late Saturday afternoon into Sunday
evening. The 850 mb temperatures continue to drop as the shortwave
moves through the region and should be in the -10C to -15C range
by around dawn on Sunday.

Moisture with the shortwave is generally progged to be not only
deeper in the far north with a more ideal but rather brief max in
omega within the DGZ. Not only is QPF anticipated to a bit higher
there but also snow ratios should be higher for a longer duration
as compared to areas further south in the winter weather advisory
probably due to a bit more upper level jet dynamics/forcing. Some
of the limiting factors to snow ratios and snow amounts on the
southern end of the advisory are a warmer column. Also there,
although there will be some omega in the DGZ, the more significant
omega in the DGZ will be briefer and a secondary max in the
warmer clouds nearer to the surface is progged in the GFS and NAM.
There will also be some stronger winds aloft which could fracture
dendrites a bit. The high resolution convective allowing models
are also lighter with amounts thus far with the global models
more solidly in advisory range in the north and east in line with
the current forecast. There is also an upslope component with
this event as well and increasing lower level lapse rates should
make snow in the second half of Saturday night more showery in
nature and that part of the event should have some omega near or
within the DGZ. Overall, if snow ratios were to end up a little
lower areawide or in the south, eventual snowfall could fall a
little under the current forecast in all or some of the advisory
area. Despite the uncertainty in the snowfall forecast, the
falling temperatures into and through the 20s and to the teens
should contribute to travel concerns as untreated surfaces may
freeze. Thus, opted to issue a winter weather advisory from Powell
through Breathitt to Letcher Counties and points to the north and
east even though the southern portions of the advisory area
should be lower end of criteria.

Temperatures are progged to drop into mainly the 10 to 20F range
by late Saturday night. Northwest winds Wind chills should near or
reach the single digits in many locations late Saturday night and
could fall as low as a couple of degrees below 0F in a few spots
in the west from Fleming County south to Pulaski county. In that
area these wind chills near Cold Weather Advisory criteria.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 359 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2025

Sunday opens with a deep 510-dm low centered over Southeastern
Ontario and Southern Quebec. Its trough axis extends back west-
southwest, with frontogenetic forcing expected to produce snow showers
along a line extending through the Northeast US, back through the
Appalachian, including portions of Eastern Kentucky. By morning,
light snow showers and flurries might remain across Southeast
Kentucky, with cold Arctic air. Morning temperatures may be in the
single digits north of the I-64 corridor, with low teens in south.
Apparent Temperatures (Wind Chill), will be in the single digits
across the area, with coldest values around and north of the
Mountain Parkway. Temperatures in these areas will feel as cold as 5
below zero.

Cold Arctic air continues to be re-enforced from the northwest
through the day. High temperatures will be a shock to the system,
only reaching the mid to upper teens north of the Hal-Rogers-KY-80
Parkway, and low to mid 20s in areas south.  Winds will be light out
of the northwest, 5-10 mph, with gusts 15-20 mph. Temperatures will
feel like they`re 10-15 degrees through the day.

High pressure begins to build back into the area Sunday night. This
will lead mostly clear skies, light and variable winds, and cold
overnight lows in the single digits. As high pressure continues to
build back into the region on Monday, temperatures warm into the low
30s near the Mountain Parkway, and mid to upper 30s south of the Hal-
Rogers/KY-80 Parkway. Monday night temperatures will likely cool
into the teens and low 20s.

Under somewhat zonal flow, conditions should be quiet through the
better part of Wednesday, with the warming trend continuing through
Thursday, highs could climb into the mid to upper 50s. A trough
amplifies heading into Thursday, leading to an increase in POP
chances through the day. P-type looks likely to be rain at this
time. Models diverge Friday, but the overall trend looks like rain
showers should be tapering off early as the Thursday system exits the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025

Dense fog and freezing fog, due to stratus build down and/or
where there has been some snowmelt will impact TAF locations such
as KJKL, KLOZ, KSJS, and KSME at times through 14Z. Low clouds
at IFR or lower will also hold on at all sites and nearby
ridgetop locations into dawn. Some small improvement can be
expected into the afternoon, even as a cold front nears and moves
across eastern Kentucky, with some MVFR and IFR reductions
lingering in the northern portions of the area through the end of
the period. Snow is also forecast to develop in the more northern
locations before the end of the day, and this could affect KSYM
after about 23Z. Generally, light and variable winds are expected
through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
Sunday for KYZ044-050>052-059-060-104.

Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
Sunday for KYZ106>110-112-113-115-118>120.


&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JP/GREIF