Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

046
FXUS63 KJKL 021221
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
721 AM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A passing storm system to our south will bring a chance of rain
  to portions of eastern Kentucky tonight into Saturday.

- Temperatures will average near to slightly below normal through
  this weekend and then trend above normal next week.

- Dry weather will hold on through Tuesday, before rain chances
  return.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 721 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2026

Forecast is still on track. Just loaded in the latest surface
observations and tweaked the diurnal warming curve through the
morning. Grids have been saved and sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 411 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2026

The 0733Z surface analysis shows a dry stationary front oriented
west to east along the Kentucky/Tennessee border. This is the
remnant of yesterdays cold front that stalled during the day. To the
north and south of the stationary boundary, surface high pressure
prevails. The northern high pressure is centered over central
Saskatchewan, and its influence is being felt across eastern
Kentucky. Clear skies and northwesterly flow have allowed
temperatures to plummet into the low to mid 20s across much of the
CWA.

For the remainder of the night and through the day today, surface
high pressure and upper-level height rises will support dry
conditions and warming temperatures. Highs are forecast to climb
into the upper 30s across the north while warming into the lower 50s
across the south. As alluded to, upper-level height rises are
anticipated as a longwave trough centered across the Northeast is
pushed northeastward ahead of an approaching shortwave impulse
progged to develop within quasi-zonal flow. This impulse has already
favored surface cyclogenesis, as the feature is currently over the
Texas Panhandle. Through the day today, the impulse will develop
into a shortwave trough that will quickly dig toward the Gulf Coast.
At the surface, the Texas Panhandle low will move easterly toward
the Tennessee Valley, essentially riding along the stationary
boundary present over that area. While the area is forecast to stay
dry throughout the day, deterministic guidance and accompanying
ensembles hint at the possibility of increasing PoPs beginning late
tonight and persisting through early Saturday afternoon.

As the system moves into the area overnight tonight into Saturday,
the precipitation shield is forecast to move through the southern
half of the CWA. Temperatures and forecast soundings indicate that
this feature will be primarily rain; however, HREF probabilities and
a few short-term guidance soundings hint at the possibility of some
wintry precipitation across the area, as temperatures may be cold
enough to support a brief transition. However, the major limiting
factor for this outcome is that the 900 to 600 mb layer is
incredibly dry. Limited moisture likely will not overcome this dry
layer to wet-bulb and saturate the column. Therefore, both PoPs and
related p-type issues will be kept to a minimum, especially on the
northern periphery of the precipitation shield. Overall, locations
along and south of the Hal Rogers Parkway to KY-80 corridor will
have the best chances (30 percent to 50 percent) for rain showers
beginning late tonight and continuing through early Saturday
afternoon. Behind the departing feature, surface high pressure will
quickly build back into the region and upper-level northwesterly
flow will advect colder temperatures into the area for the end of
the forecast period.

The forecast window will feature surface high pressure today
bringing warming temperatures and dry weather. A passing surface
wave will then move through the Tennessee Valley overnight tonight
into tomorrow, bringing low-end PoP chances to southern Kentucky.
Surface high pressure quickly returns to the area for Saturday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 351 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2026

The long wave pattern starts out amplified, with a broad trough
over the eastern third of the nation, sharper ridging positioned
over the Rockies, and deeper troughing seen over the eastern
Pacific. The flow becomes more zonal across the CONUS into early
next week as the eastern trough pivots away over the western
Atlantic while troughing closes in on the West Coast. The Rockies
ridge will dampen in between as it translates east with time. By
the middle of next week, amplification occurs once again, as
eastern inbound Pacific energy reloads. A southern stream cutoff
low will likely emerge along the California Coast. This feature
will eventually eject east, although models differ in timing and
the evolution of this system. Meanwhile, deeper and progressive
northern stream energy will invade the West.

Dry weather will close out the weekend across eastern Kentucky,
as high pressure gradually settles within the Ohio Valley.
Clearing skies and calming winds Saturday night should allow for a
chilly night across the Coalfields, with some upper teens a good
bet in the typically colder hollows in the north, with low to mid
20s expected elsewhere. Below normal temperatures will continue on
Sunday, with highs ranging from the upper 30s north of I-64, to
the mid 40s in the Cumberland Valley. Surface winds will veer
around to the southeast Sunday night, with a quick-moving weaker
short wave trough providing some higher clouds. Still, lows will
return to the mid to upper 20s.

A warming trend will then ensue into next week, with highs back
well into the 50s on Monday. By Thursday, highs will be in the low
to mid 60s. Dry weather will hold through Tuesday, before a
passing cold front provides rain chances Tuesday night. This
boundary will then stall in the vicinity of the Commonwealth
through the middle of next week. Better moisture transport
will be inevitable as the southern stream short wave and its
surface low counterpart move into the southern Plains, and
then the middle Mississippi Valley. Rain chances are held in the
chance category for now, given the uncertainty in the timing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 625 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2026

All sites minus KSYM are currently VFR as clear skies exist over
eastern Kentucky. KSYM is MVFR but will slowly improve to VFR this
afternoon. Guidance suggests that passing low clouds could cause a
reduction in category at KSYM and KSJS but confidence is low on
that scenario but there`s still a small chance. Should it happen,
upper-end MVFR is to be expected. A passing surface low could
bring PROB30 rain showers to KLOZ and KSME overnight tonight after
06Z and continuing through approximately 11Z. Lastly, winds are
forecast to be light and variable.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VORST
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...VORST