Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

466
FXUS63 KJKL 151530 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1030 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Widespread rain continues this morning, tapering off from west
   to east this afternoon and evening. Expect total rainfall amounts
   between a half-inch and one inch, with the highest totals in
   the Cumberland Basin.

-  A significant warming trend begins Monday. Temperatures will
   reach the 60s area-wide by Tuesday afternoon and could hit the
   lower 70s in many areas by Thursday afternoon.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026

15Z sfc analysis a deep area of low pressure passing through the
Deep South. This has placed Kentucky on the northern fringe of its
pcpn shield, but warm antecedent conditions are resulting in just
steady light to moderate rain. This large area of rain moves off
to the east later this afternoon. Currently, amid east to
northeast winds of 5 to 10 mph, temperatures (and dewpoints) are
mild in the low to mid 40s. Areas of fog are noted through the
area, as well. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the
latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky/PoP grids. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
a freshening of the zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 458 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026

The 0600Z surface analysis depicts a 1002 mb surface low migrating
across southern Arkansas into western Mississippi. Extending
northeast from the primary synoptic forcing in the Deep South, a
stationary boundary remains draped across the Commonwealth. While a
subtle thermal gradient exists across this boundary, the temperature
contrast is not particularly sharp. However, the expanding shower
activity across Middle Tennessee is directly tied to this boundary
and the approach of the broader low-pressure system. Locally,
ongoing showers are widespread on radar, with pockets of heavier
rainfall currently impacting the Cumberland Basin and Pennyrile
Plateau. Overnight temperatures have remained relatively mild, with
lows bottoming out in the low 40s across the northeastern portions
of the CWA and reaching the mid to upper 40s toward the Cumberland
Plateau.

Through the remainder of the morning and into the afternoon, this
vertically stacked system will track through the Deep South,
maintaining high PoPs across the region. As the supporting upper-
level trough pivots eastward over the Appalachian Mountains this
evening, rain will begin to taper off from west to east before
concluding late tonight. Total QPF values have fluctuated with each
successive model suite; notably, robust convection along the Gulf
Coast has intercepted a portion of the moisture that was previously
forecast to advect into our area. Despite this moisture robbing,
remaining QPF is still expected to range from 0.50 inches along the
I-64 corridor to approximately 1.00 inch along and south of the Hal
Rogers Parkway and Cumberland River basin. Locally higher amounts
remain possible within the most persistent shower bands. When
combined with recent snowmelt, this rainfall may induce rises on
local rivers, though hydrologic threats remain minimal and
significant flooding is not anticipated.

The short-term period will be defined by the passage and eventual
departure of this system. Once the low exits, surface high pressure
will build back into the region. Temperatures today will remain near
or slightly above seasonal averages, with highs in the 40s and 50s.
Under the building high-pressure regime on Monday, clearing skies
will allow temperatures to rebound into the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026

The long-term period opens Monday evening with a broad upper-
level ridge over the Central CONUS and a surface ridge displaced
further east from New England to the lower Mississippi Valley.
Low-level return flow draws an unseasonably warm air mass into the
Ohio Valley on the western periphery of the surface ridge.
Additionally, an upper-level trough coming ashore the West Coast
early in the week leads to unsettled weather for eastern Kentucky
by late week.

For the interim period, the upper level ridge axis will shift
eastward to over the Ohio Valley by late Tuesday while a potent
shortwave trough ejects northeast out of the Pacific trough. The
ridge then shifts southeast Wednesday while this initial
shortwave supports a surface low tracking from southeast Montana
to the Great Lakes before becoming vertically stacked. The
system`s warm conveyor belt jet passes over eastern Kentucky early
Wednesday with GFS BUFKIT mixed-layer momentum transfer reaching
25 to 30 kts. The remaining trough energy ejects east-northeast
later in the week, supporting secondary cyclogenesis over eastern
Colorado Wednesday with the new low tracking north of the Ohio
River Thursday night. This places eastern Kentucky under a warm
conveyor belt jet again Thursday, with 850 hPa temperatures
reaching 10 to 11 C. The system`s trailing cold front passes
through Thursday night/Friday with an area-wide rainfall expected.
Overall amounts still appear light. A cooler and drier air mass
spills into eastern Kentucky next weekend but there is still
substantial disagreement as to the magnitude of the cold.

In sensible weather terms, expect fair, seasonable weather Monday
night with lows from near 30F in cold hollows to the mid 40s on
ridgetops. Tuesday remains pleasant with highs in the lower to
middle 60s. The warming trend continues Wednesday and Thursday
with highs in the mid to upper 60s and upper 60s to lower 70s,
respectively. Breezy conditions develop during the day both
Wednesday and Thursday, with southwest winds likely gusting to
between 20 and 30 mph both days. A slight chance for showers
exists Wednesday north of I-64, followed by widespread rain
Thursday night through Friday. Cooler temperatures closer to
seasonal averages are likely follow heading into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 627 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026

TAFs are a combination of VFR and MVFR with this issuance;
however, as showers continue to increase in coverage and the
surface low approaches the area, lowering CIGs and VSBY will bring
terminals down to MVFR, IFR and possible LIFR by this evening.
Showers will persist through the day before tapering off this
evening from west to east but lingering low clouds and fog will
lead to IFR and possible LIFR conditions through the remainder of
the TAF window. Winds are forecast to be light and variable
through the TAF period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...VORST