Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

229
FXUS63 KJKL 282355 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
655 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A disturbance will cross the area later tonight, with the
  potential for a few flurries.

- There is a potential for a more widespread dry, fluffy snow
  event Friday/Saturday for parts of eastern Kentucky depending on
  the evolution of a possible large system developing/moving up
  the Eastern Seaboard.

- Cold weather lasts through the upcoming weekend, with at least a
  brief warming trend following early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 635 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure nudging into the area from
the southwest, but nearby low pressure to the north will remain
influential. A weak wave passing by aloft will maintain a small
chance for light snow, but mostly just flurries, tonight.
Currently, temperatures are running in the mid teens north to the
mid 20s in the south. Meanwhile, amid west to northwest winds of
5 to 10 mph with some higher gusts, dewpoints are in the low
single digits north to the mid teens in the southwest. Have
updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends
for the Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the
NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 329 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026

A persistent brand of deep winter chill lingers over eastern
Kentucky this afternoon. Temperatures are running 15 to 20 degrees
below normal this afternoon with values ranging from the upper
10s in northern Fleming County to the upper 20s in the
Middlesboro Basin. A few stratocumulus have bubbled up with
diurnal heating while an area of mid-level cloud cover has
affected many locations near/south of the Mountain Parkway. The
larger scale weather map shows ~1030 mb high pressure centered
over eastern Texas and Louisiana at mid-afternoon, east of a 500
hPa ridge axis over the Rockies while another surface high is
sliding southeast from the Canadian Prairies. Of note, a robust
Pacific shortwave trough is riding through the ridge, crossing
the Intermountain West. To the east of the ridge axis, broad and
deep troughing resides over the eastern portions of North America
around a deep 500 hPa parent low over southern James Bay. An
embedded shortwave disturbance rotating around the low is brushing
by to our northeast, supporting a weak area of low pressure
dropping from Lake Huron toward Lake Ontario. This is yielding
little more for us than that blustery westerly breeze across the
Commonwealth in that weak low`s warm sector.

For tonight, a weak 700 hPa vort lobe sags southward across the
CWA with some subtle 925 hPa cold air advection. This may lead to
a few isolated flurries overnight, primarily south of the
Mountain Parkway. Clearer skies can be expected behind the
disturbance farther north as high pressure ridging noses southeast
from the Northern Plains. On Thursday, that surface high pressure
ridging will persist over the Commonwealth with mostly dry
conditions. In the meantime, the Pacific shortwave trough will
eject east of the Rockies toward the Southeast CONUS, initiating a
weak low over southeast Colorado that dives southeast into the
Lower Mississippi Valley by daybreak Friday. Subtle warm air
advection/frontogenesis ahead of this low will bring increasing
cloud cover Thursday night, and some of the guidance supports
light snow developing across portions of eastern Kentucky by
daybreak Friday, but overall certainty in spatial and temporal
details is low. Any notable impacts are likely to occur during the
first couple days of the long-term period.

In sensible weather terms, look for variable cloud cover this
evening and tonight, with skies remaining clearer north of the
Mountain Parkway. A few flurries cannot be ruled out, primarily
south of the Mountain Parkway. The breeze will also subside. Patches
of freezing fog cannot be ruled out where skies remain clearest
the longest (primarily north of I-64). It will be quite cold with
temperatures ranging from 0 to -5F over most of Fleming County to
the mid 10s near the TN-KY border. Cloud coverage increases again
area-wide on Thursday and thickens Thursday night. Look for high
temperatures in the low 20s north to mid 30s south on Thursday
with lows in the upper single digits to near 20, north to south,
on Thursday night. A few flurries or a little light snow will be
possible again toward daybreak on Friday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 506 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026

The long-term period opens Friday morning with the ingredients
for a significant East Coast winter storm on a collision course.
Deep upper level troughing will be over the eastern half of North
America with the parent low elongating east to west from Labrador
to the Upper Midwest. Southern stream shortwave troughing/vort
energy is passing over the Central Gulf Coast States with an
attending weak surface low reflection. As that southern stream
disturbance passes to our south during the day on Friday, the deep
elongating low/trough to our north will begin a hard counterclockwise
pivot. Many models are now resolving a light band of snow
developing E-W across the Commonwealth Friday morning/midday in
response to frontogenesis as colder air moving south with that
northern stream trough comes up against warmer air lifting
northward on the eastern side of the southern stream shortwave and
weak low pressure system. The spatial extent of the snowfall
remains uncertain. By later in the day, that zone of frontogenesis
gradually pivots more SW-NE and subsides southeastward ahead of
the incoming northern stream trough and potent surge of Arctic
air.

The favored model outcome is for the northern stream elongated
trough to close off into a potent 500 hPa low as it digs
southeastward toward Georgia and the Carolinas, initiating a
rapidly deepening Miller A type Noreaster off the Outer Banks.
The aforementioned frontogenetic zone lingers in the mid-levels
over the Central Appalachians Friday night into Saturday morning,
favoring continued snowfall over southeastern Kentucky. It is
during this timeframe when some slantwise instability could lead
to heavier snowfall rates as well. The back edge of any
frontogenetic banding could have a very sharp precipitation
gradient, so the eventual storm track will have a major role in
the amount of snow that materializes. At this point, reasonable
low end scenarios favor as little as one or two inches confined to
area southeast of the Hal Rogers Parkway/KY-80 corridor, while
high end scenarios range from 7 to 10 inches in those same areas.
Farther northwest, amounts could be little or nothing up to a few
inches. Thus forecaster confidence in a specific amount range
remains low. The steadier snow most likely tapers off during the
day on Saturday, but very cold temperatures, some shallow low-
level moisture in model sounding profiles, and continued upslope
flow are likely to keep extensive cloud cover and snow
showers/flurries going into at least Sunday morning, especially
over the higher terrain. Aside from the snowfall potential,
temperatures will once again turn bitterly cold with 925 hPa
forecasts settling to -15 to -20C by daybreak Saturday.
Temperatures in the single digits to low teens and northerly winds
at 5 to 10 mph will support minimum wind chill readings below
zero on both Friday and Saturday nights. MOS guidance also
suggests that highs on Saturday may struggle to warm above 15F
across most of eastern Kentucky as well. Of note, the record
minimum high temperature at WFO JKL for January 31st is 26F set in
1996/2019, and that is likely to be destroyed. The record minimum
high for that day at LOZ is 17F set in 1965 and could be in
jeopardy as well. Additionally, for February 1st, the record
minimum low temperature for WFO JKL is 9F set in 2013 and the
record minimum high is 22F, both of which may be broken. The
records at London for February 1st, set in 1971, are much colder
and almost certain to hold.

Looking ahead to next  week, a warming trend is still in the
forecast beginning Sunday and continuing through the middle of
next week. Model spread is large with respect to another much
weaker system that could bring some light precipitation in the
Monday to Wednesday timeframe. Temperatures should warm above
freezing for many locations on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 655 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026

VFR conditions were noted at the 00Z TAF issuance and should
largely prevail through the period. A mid-level cloud deck
affects many locations, generally near and south of the Mountain
Parkway. A weak wave sags southward across the area tonight,
potentially bringing a period of borderline MVFR ceilings and a
small chance for a few flurries or light snow showers. Clearing
skies late may allow for patchy freezing fog to develop near and
north of I-64 towards daybreak, Thursday. Winds will be west to
northwest at 8 to 13 kts with gusts up to 20 kts early this
evening, slackening to light and variable tonight into the bulk of
the day, Thursday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF