Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

632
FXUS63 KJKL 061519
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1019 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quick-hitting snowfall is expected today. Most locations
  northeast of Highway 15 can expect some light daytime
  accumulations.

- Higher terrain near the Virginia border will see heavier
  snowfall totals of two to four inches through sunrise Saturday.
  This includes accumulation from additional snow showers
  associated with an arctic front tonight.

- Cold air lingers Saturday before a major warm-up carries into
  next week. High temperatures will soar from the 20s on Saturday
  to the 50s and 60s by Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1019 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026

Radar echoes are increasing north of the Mountain Parkway late
this morning. The 12Z ILN sounding did show a dry layer between
700 and 850 hPa and that layer is likely present across much of
eastern Kentucky, as per RAP13 soundings. This layer will need to
saturate before much precipitation reaches the ground, so there
will be at least a brief delay between when radar echoes move in
to a given location and when snow starts reaching the ground.
Given upstream webcams in Indiana/Ohio and current radar/ hi-res
model trends, the current Winter Weather Advisory area still
appears appropriate. Some uncertainty as to whether rain will mix
in still exists over the southeasternmost edge counties of the
advisory.

UPDATE Issued at 811 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026

Temperatures are starting out a little warmer than what was
expected. Have made adjustments to blend the early morning obs
into the forecast. Have left afternoon temps alone for the time
being. However, the oncoming shift will need to more closely
examine the trends to see if there will be an impact on forecast
snow amounts this afternoon/evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 507 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026

A surface ridge is slipping away to our southeast as it weakens
early this morning. Meanwhile, a cold front extending from the
upper Great Lakes to the central plains is approaching. It is
supported by a shortwave trough aloft and an upper level jet. Warm
air advection is ongoing ahead of the cold front. A combination of
isentropic lift from the warm air advection, the approaching wave,
and the left exit region of the jet will produce substantial lift
giving an area of precip which will move through along the front
today. A SW to NE gradient of POP and precip amounts will occur
across the JKL forecast area. The warm air advection should help
to push temperatures above freezing, but precip will also act to
restrain them. This will give us temperatures marginal for rain
vs. snow. A brief period of strong lift and heavier precip may
help to keep precip largely in the form of snow during that time.
Snow accumulations will be tricky due to marginal temperatures and
exact placement of the heaviest precip. This forecast issuance
has the heaviest snowfall slightly further northeast. However,
with uncertainties, have left the Winter Weather Advisory in place
for the times and locations it was previously issued. The initial
round of precip should largely taper off by this evening and the
cold front will have departed to our southeast.

Another cold front bringing arctic air will arrive tonight. The
passage of the second front will bring steep low level lapse rates
in upslope cold air advection. Remaining moisture will be shallow
(deepest in our southeastern counties), but will intersect the DGZ
for a time as the atmosphere cools. This should give an uptick in
snow flurries/snow showers, with some additional accumulation in
far southeast KY. The Winter Weather Advisory still extends
through tonight for most of the VA border region to account for
the increase in snow showers.

Any remaining flurries should dwindle during the day Saturday and
clouds will also decrease as much colder/drier air arrives behind
the front.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 432 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026

At the onset of the long term period, temperatures are expected to
drop into the single digits mid-teens across the area Saturday
night. This is due to lingering snow pack, light winds and clear
skies under a departing trough.

Sunday, a shortwave passes through the Great Lakes keeping clouds
lingering longer across the north. There`s a low chances of showers
(<10% chance) occurring in the northeastern most counties early
Sunday, as this shortwave passes through the Great Lakes and
portions of the Ohio Valley. Otherwise, height rises aloft align
with low-level winds becoming more southerly through the day. A
ridge across the Northern an Central Plains flattens through the
day. Warm Air Advection (WAA) will lead to temperatures warming into
the low 30s to mid 40s northeast to southwest across the area. Such
a strong temperature gradient remains across the area, with the
shortwave keeping clouds around, and cooler temperatures, while some
clearing across the southwest may lead to stronger diurnal heating
through the day. Sunday night, temperatures dip into the low to
upper 20s from north to south.

Continued height rises and WAA leads to temperatures climbing into
the upper 40s to upper 50s (from northeast to southwest) through
Monday under a mix of sun and clouds. At night, temperatures
generally range from the upper 20s to low 30s in valleys, with
southwesterly winds possibly keeping ridgetops a smidge warmer in
the mid to upper 30s.

Throughout the weekend, a Baja-type low will creep further southeast
before progressing east into Mexico Monday night, Texas, and the
Southern Plains Tuesday morning, before ejecting into the Mid-
Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon. POP chances increase beginning
Tuesday afternoon, peaking in the overnight/predawn hours Wednesday
(50-55 POP) before maintaining a scattered shower chance (25-35%
POP) through the remainder of the long term period (Friday).

Before shower chances move into the area Tuesday afternoon, strong
WAA will result in temperatures climbing into the mid 50s to lower
60s across the area. Rain showers are then expected later Tuesday
afternoon continuing through all of Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night
will feel balmy compared to late, in the low 40s.  As mentioned
above, scattered shower chance remain through Friday, with a gradual
trend back towards normal temperatures, with 50s on Wednesday, 40s
on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 746 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026

A combination of MVFR and VFR conditions was present to start the
period, with the VFR conditions generally limited to places
southwest of KLOZ. The VFR conditions are forecast to expand
further east for a time today, but the improvement will be halted
as snow and/or rain arrives from the north during the late
morning and afternoon. MVFR conditions, possibly dipping to IFR at
times, will overtake the area from north to south this afternoon.
Most of the precipitation will taper off by evening, but the sub-
VFR conditions will persist. Snow showers are forecast to develop
tonight, with the greatest concentration in southeast KY, They
should taper off overnight and early Saturday. This will also
coincide with the return of VFR conditions which will last through
the rest of the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for KYZ044-
050>052-059-060-104-106>110-112-113-119.

Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for KYZ088-118-
120.


&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...HAL