Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

310
FXUS63 KJKL 040851
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
451 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and breezy conditions are expected today and Tuesday with
  highs from 75 to 80F.

- After an isolated to scattered morning shower activity today
  (with possible thunder), widespread showers and a few
  thunderstorms will arrive Tuesday night and last through
  Thursday morning. Beneficial rainfall amounts of 1 to 1.75
  inches are expected, highest near the Tennessee border.

- Cooler, below-normal temperatures settle in for the second half
  of the week, along with periodic low chances for showers
  heading into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 407 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026

Variable cloud cover is noted across eastern Kentucky early this
morning with much milder temperatures than 24 hours ago (mid 40s to
mid 50s vs. yesterday mornings 30s). Regional radar imagery shows
isolated shower activity (mainly light) moving in from the west
northwest. Looking aloft, the forcing mechanism for this activity
appears to be multiple weak shortwave disturbances riding
southeast within a broad mean trough over much of the continent
east of the Rockies and interacting with ongoing low-level WAA
over the Lower Ohio Valley. Further upstream, a potent 500 hPa
vorticity lobe is dropping southward into the Northern Plains from
the Canadian Prairies while a closed upper level low deepens over
Northwest Ontario, nearly concurrent with a sub-990 mb surface
low. This system is attended by a potent cold front, presently
draped from northeast Minnesota across northern South Dakota and
then across Montana to the Rocky Mountains.

Once the aforementioned shortwave disturbances cross the Ohio Valley
and depart by midday along with associated weak convection, weak
height rises will follow and should keep any afternoon rain
chances limited and mainly confined to far northern counties or
even north of the JKL CWA entirely. Meanwhile, the aforementioned
upper low over northern Ontario will deepen slightly as it rotates
eastward, eventually passing over James Bay toward the end of the
short-term period. This will maintain a deep surface low tracking
from northwest Ontario into Central Quebec while its trailing
cold front trudges southeastward toward the Ohio Valley before
slowing to near a stall by Tuesday evening. Shower and
thunderstorm chances make a slow return to the eastern Kentucky
forecast Tuesday afternoon and evening but appreciable widespread
rainfall is not expected until Tuesday night and Wednesday.

In sensible weather terms, look for partly to mostly cloudy skies
this morning with scattered to isolated showers (possibly with a
rumble of thunder) to give way to increasing sunshine this afternoon.
It will be warmer and breezy with high temperatures of 75F to 80F
while southwesterly winds gust to between 15 and 25 mph during the
late morning and afternoon. Partly cloudy skies follow for tonight
with lows ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s in sheltered
eastern valleys to the mid and upper 50s near Lake Cumberland,
over the Bluegrass, and atop thermal belt ridges. Sunshine on
Tuesday morning will then fade to increasing clouds and rising
shower chances (possibly a thunderstorm) during the afternoon and
evening. Temperatures will be similar to today, topping out in the
75F to 80F range for most locations while the southwesterly
breeze will be of a similar strength as well.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 418 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026

The period begins Tuesday evening with a cold front situated from
western PA through central and southwest OH and continued
southwest into the Arkansas, with the nose of a mid-level jet
streak and progressive shortwave (embedded with in a primary
parent trough) moving toward eastern Kentucky. There is high
confidence that widespread showers and thunderstorms will occur as
this shortwave and jet energy crosses the area overnight into
Wednesday, pushing the cold front to over or just south and east
of the JKL CWA by Wednesday evening. This is followed by another
shortwave and surface low riding along the front through the
Tennessee and Cumberland Valleys. This will bring another round
of showers and thunderstorms primarily over southern and eastern
Kentucky Wednesday night into Thursday.

Model spread for QPF across the forecast area continues to decline,
primarily due to a continued reduction in higher-end amounts across
the south, with the entire CWA now depicted between 1.00 and 1.75
inches, highest along the tier of counties bordering Tennessee.

Shower activity gradually winds down in the south and east the
second half of Thursday as surface high pressure moves into the
area. This dry window will be short-lived, as additional
perturbations within persistent mean troughing aloft are progged
to dive southeast toward the Commonwealth, bringing low chances
for showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, for the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 151 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026

VFR conditions will largely prevail through the TAF period. An
increase in mid and high clouds is anticipated through the early
morning hours, with convection possible for northern and central
sites mainly between 07z and 16z with a passing disturbance.
These will continue to be covered by PROB30 groups in the TAFs for
when probabilties of showers or a stray storm and potential MVFR
reductions are highest. A weak southwesterly low-level jet will
also impinge across northern and western sites late tonight. LLWS
was not mentioned at this time, but could still briefly approach
mentionable criteria at SYM and IOB around daybreak. Gusty
southwest winds of 18 to 23 kts are then expected at most if not
all sites from late morning through the afternoon hours on Monday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...GEERTSON/CMC/VORST