Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

732
FXUS63 KJKL 202032
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
432 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost or light freeze conditions are expected across most of
  eastern Kentucky late tonight into early Tuesday morning.

- Below normal temperature will last through early Tuesday,
  followed by warmer weather to last into the weekend.

- The next expectation of area wide rain is not until the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 432 PM EDT MON APR 20 2026

Sunny, cool and dry weather dominates eastern Kentucky this afternoon
as surface high pressure passes over the Great Lakes. Temperatures
range from the mid 50s in the northern foothills to the mid 60s near
the KY-TN border while dew points range from the mid 10s north to mid
30s south as drier air continues to filter in on a light northerly
breeze.

This will set the stage for a cold and mostly clear night with the
threat of frost or a light freeze across the area. The coldest
temperatures are expected to occur in northeastern Kentucky valleys
where dew points are the lowest and temperatures will be coolest
heading into the night. Upper 20s could be quite common there. The
remainder of the interior Coalfield valleys east of I-75 and the
Pottsville Escarpment are favored to dip into the 30 to 32F range.
A Freeze Warning has been issued across the counties with the
most freeze prone sheltered valleys. The warning is bordered to
the west by a Frost Advisory over the Eastern Bluegrass/northern
Pottsville Escarpment and across Laurel and Whitley counties
where temperatures should still be could enough for substantial
frost with temperatures mostly in the mid 30s. The frost is
expected to be most sparse from Rockcastle down to the Lake
Cumberland area counties where the southerly return flow should
begin to develop late in the night and prevent temperatures from
fully bottoming out. Even here though, some patchy to perhaps
areas of frost cannot be ruled out in sheltered low lying areas.
Across ridgetops, temperatures will generally remain warm enough
to avoid anything more than patchy frost at most.

The aforementioned high pressure will have shifted to the east side
of the Central Appalachians by 12Z Tuesday while a cold front will be
dropping southeast into the Ohio Valley from the Upper Midwest. This
will result in a strengthening southwesterly return flow and tightening
pressure gradient on Tuesday and Tuesday night. This will bring
warm air flooding back north across the area, buoying temperatures
back into the mid and upper 70s by afternoon but moisture recoveries
will lag with dew points only reaching the 30s to near 40F. GFS
BUFKIT mixed layer momentum transfer supports gusts up to around
20 mph during the afternoon. Temperatures dip back into the mid
40s to mid 50s on Tuesday night with more cloud cover moving into
the north. There is a small chance of a shower north of the
Mountain Parkway toward daybreak on Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 332 PM EDT MON APR 20 2026

Upper level ridging will dominate the beginning of the long term
period. On Wednesday, a cold front will meander south from the
Great Lakes region, but will become diffuse as it is abandoned by
its upper level support. Weak moisture return ahead of the front
could potentially support isolated showers and perhaps a rumble of
thunder in the northernmost portion of the forecast area
(generally north of the Mountain Parkway). However, PoPs remain
relatively low at this time (20-40%), with better precipitation
chances generally expected closer to the front. Elsewhere, warm
temperatures and limited moisture return will allow RH values to
approach critical levels. This, in combination with breezy
conditions, will allow for elevated fire weather concerns. By
Thursday, continued high pressure will allow for temperatures to
soar into the 80s, once again leaving afternoon RH values near
critical levels. However, a weakening pressure gradient will limit
afternoon wind gusts (likely reaching a maximum of 10-15 mph),
helping to mitigate fire weather concerns somewhat.

This weekend, a series of shortwaves moving through a longwave
trough over the western half of the US will gradually break down
upper level ridging, allowing for a wetter pattern to set in. By
Friday, southwesterly flow ahead of a sharp cold front over the
central United States will usher in a period of more earnest
moisture return, leading to gradual dewpoint increases. This front
will enter Kentucky on Saturday, finally allowing for widespread
and appreciable rainfall. As of now, the best chance for showers
and thunderstorms seems to be from Friday night through Saturday.
However, models diverge with respect to the synoptic pattern this
weekend, particularly with respect to the amplitude of pre-
existing upper level ridging and when this ridge will breakdown.
The structural evolution of these upper level features will be
critical for precipitation timing and QPF this weekend. This QPF
uncertainty is reflected in LREF guidance, which maintains a ~0.50
discrepancy between 25th and 75th percentile accumulations this
weekend. Regardless, confidence is high (80-90%) in receiving at
least a quarter of an inch of rain across the forecast area this
weekend. Looking ahead, quasi-zonal flow should allow for a more
active weather pattern early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON APR 20 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the period. Winds will be
light and variable through tonight.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for
KYZ044-050-051-058>060-069-080-085.

Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for
KYZ052-086>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...FAGAN/GEERTSON
AVIATION...GEERTSON