Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

735
FXUS63 KJKL 080749
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
349 AM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers will linger through morning with cold frontal passage.

- Behind the cold front, a very modest and brief cool-down will
  take place to start the week, followed by a return to
  unseasonably warm weather.

- A stronger cold front will bring more showers and thunderstorms
  around mid-week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 349 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026

Current surface analysis indicates the forecast area remains in a
pre-frontal regime. The cold front is currently draped from southern
Canada through the Commonwealth and down toward the Gulf Coast.
Light shower activity tied to the frontal boundary is developing
across central Kentucky and drifting eastward. Ahead of this
feature, widespread cloud cover persists, though conditions remain
largely dry with mild temperatures.

As the morning progresses, the cold front will track across the CWA,
bringing a concentrated window of categorical showers as the surface
convergence axis passes. Following the frontal passage this
afternoon, a dry air mass will filter in as surface high pressure
begins to build from the west. This will lead to rapid clearing and
a period of subsiding winds. High temperatures this afternoon are
expected to reach the mid-60s. Tonight, radiational cooling under
mostly clear skies will allow overnight lows to drop into the 40s.
Dry conditions prevail through Monday as the ridge axis shifts
eastward, allowing for return flow and warm air advection to boost
temperatures into the lower 70s. However, a warm front is progged to
lift through the region late in the period, increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday.

The short term period will be highlighted by the initial cold
frontal passage followed by a brief period of building surface high
pressure. Above average temperatures and dry weather are expected
for much of Monday before increasing PoP chances arrive late Monday
night as the next system approaches.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 151 AM EST SUN MAR 8 2026

Models are in fairly good agreement through the long-term period
beginning Monday evening. The primary feature of interest during
this time is the potential for phasing of northern and southern
stream systems over the eastern half of the country mid-week. This
would bring the potential for a strong cold front with a potentially
strong to severe line of storms Wednesday.

The period begins Monday evening with southwesterly return flow and
weak warm advection already in place, resulting in warming
conditions and a return to well above normal temperatures. The
exception might be the first half of Monday night, where the
possibility of weak warm advection, relatively clear skies
especially east of escarpment, and light winds in the valleys could
result in relatively large ridge-valley splits, with sheltered
valleys possibly reaching the upper 40s to lower 50s along with
valley fog developing. Otherwise, the overall trend will be for a
disturbance approaching Tuesday to gradually increase PoPs as warm
advection increases and dew points steadily increase across the
area.

A digging northern stream trough from the Northern Rockies and an
ejecting and lifting upper disturbance from northwestern Mexico will
then push simultaneously east toward the Ohio and Tennessee Valley
regions Tuesday night, with most models depicting some degree of
phasing of these systems by Wednesday, resulting in a deep amplified
upper trough and associated strong surface cold front moving rapidly
east through the region late Wednesday into early Thursday.

For those models in particular that suggest an earlier phasing,
strong forcing and an amplified upper trough along with at least
sufficient instability looks to result in what would likely be a
large-scale squall line moving rapidly across the eastern part of
the country to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast US Wednesday afternoon
through Wednesday night, with the SPC highlighting most of the
forecast area with 15% or greater probabilities for severe weather,
with damaging winds the most likely severe threat.

Another potential threat will be strong gusty winds out of the south
and south-southwest just ahead of the cold front passage Wednesday,
with the LREF showing ~70% probability for wind gusts exceeding 40
mph at KLEX and ~35% at KJKL. These winds would be separate from the
potential for wind gusts associated with the squall line associated
with the cold front later in the afternoon or evening.

Low-level thicknesses crash rapidly behind the cold front
Wednesday night into early Thursday and within the amplified
upper trough. With cold advection and any sufficient moisture, the
potential for a few snow showers will be possible, especially
across northern and eastern parts of the forecast area, with
minimal impacts expected at this time.

Otherwise, upper flow quickly becomes zonal for the rest of the long-
term period through Saturday night, with temperatures quickly
rebounding back above normal by Friday and extending into Saturday
after a sharp yet brief cooldown Thursday. Slight chance PoPs are
reintroduced to the forecast by Saturday night as a disturbance
approaches from the northwest within the zonal flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST SUN MAR 8 2026

Showers are decreasing in coverage with all TAFs minus KSME in
VFR. Over the next couple of hours, TAFs will diminish to MVFR/IFR
as the actual cold front crosses through the region. Increasing
shower chances are possible with the front starting at 08Z for the
western TAFs and quickly moving across all sites before coming to
an end by 16Z in the far eastern TAFs. A gradual improvement to
VFR is expected through the afternoon behind the departing cold
front. Winds will remain light aside from a little gustiness with
the front before diminishing back to light and variable again.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...VORST