Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

936
FXUS63 KJKL 230855
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
355 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Accumulating snow/snow showers will continue across much of
   Eastern Kentucky through the day, particularly east of I-75.

-  Some of the stronger snow showers may produce locally higher
   accumulation rates, wind gusts up to 30 mph, and sudden
   visibility reductions.

-  Much colder air lingers into Tuesday morning, but a mid-week
   warming trend remains on track with soaking rains to follow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026

08Z sfc analysis shows deep low pressure off the Northeast Coast
where blizzard conditions are rampant. Locally, this is holding
in the brisk cyclonic low level flow this night with upslope
northwest winds of 10 to 20 mph and some higher gusts. This is
combining with an arriving wave aloft to continue to produce
scattered to numerous snow showers bringing additional light
accumulations to the area early this morning. Currently,
temperatures are quite cold having fallen into the lower 20s with
colder values above 1500 feet. This is making the snow able to
stick to the untreated roads creating slick conditions even for
places with snow totals below a half inch. The WSW for the
southeast parts of the area addresses the higher accumulations
with an SPS for those lighter accumulations also producing slick
spots, elsewhere. Meanwhile, dewpoints are generally in the upper
teens to low 20s.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are still in
very good agreement aloft, despite this dynamic solution, through
the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict the deep
5h closed trough off the Northeast Coast with its mid level energy
stretched back into the Ohio Valley this morning. As the trough
slowly pulls away to the northeast, its tail of energy slips east
through Kentucky in northwest to northerly flow. Later tonight
heights will rise sharply for the JKL CWA into Tuesday morning.
However, this ridging will not be determinative with northwest
flow continuing and additional waves of mainly weak energy moving
through the state in the westerly tilting mid levels into Tuesday
evening. Due to the still similar model solutions, the NBM was
used as the starting point of the forecast grids with some
adjustments made to PoPs and snow amounts today and the first part
of the night per the latest CAMs consensus and standard upslope
flow climatologic enhancements.

Sensible weather features scattered to numerous snow showers
continuing through the area - falling on now cold road sfcs and
accumulating enough for slick travel conditions. Higher
accumulations on the order of a couple of inches are expected for
southeast parts of the CWA where a WSW is in effect until 7 pm.
Elsewhere, the SPS highlighting visibility and slick road concerns
continues through the afternoon, as well. Visibility will be an
issue at times, particularly from mid morning into late afternoon
when snow squall parameters peak per the RAP. Gusty northwest
winds of up to 30 mph will accompany the heavier snow showers
reducing the visibility and leaving behind some quick, minor
accumulations. Temperatures will only slightly rebound from the
morning lows and stay below freezing for most of the area today.
Look for another very chilly night even as the snow clears out and
winds settle. Tuesday will see a rebound in temperatures with
most places starting to thaw out that afternoon and topping out
in the 40s - despite plenty of clouds lingering over the state
ahead of the next system.

The changes to the NBM starting point primarily consisted of
enhancing the PoPs through the evening per the latest high
resolution CAMs guidance and also climatology for these type of
upslope flow situations.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 355 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026

The main change to the extended forecast this morning was to
add more terrain distinction to nighttime temperatures for a
couple of the nights over the upcoming weekend. Also, we are still
watching an excessive rain potential for Thursday into Friday
morning from the next well developed weather system passing
through.

The previous long term discussion follows:

The long term forecast period continues to be defined by a general
warming trend and the approach of two mid-week systems. While the
most recent runs of the deterministic forecast guidance models have
come in a little bit below the blended NBM baseline, temperatures
are still expected to return to near- or just-above-normal readings
by mid-week. This relative warmth bolsters confidence that all
precipitation associated with the two aforementioned systems will
fall in the form of rain, although we will have to closely monitor
the potential for locally heavy rainfall with the second one. The
synoptic pattern remains progressive headed into next weekend, but
model spread significantly increases in the latter stages of the
period. This reduces confidence in sensible weather specifics, but
above-normal temperatures are currently forecast for next weekend.

After a chilly start to the day, temperatures climb into the lower
half of the 40s on Tuesday afternoon. As midlevel ridging briefly
builds into the region, the corresponding surface high will shift
into the Southeastern CONUS. This shift establishes a regime of
southwesterly surface flow here in Kentucky, and those winds are
forecast to strengthen overnight in response to a tightening
pressure gradient. This yields warm air advection, as does the
approximately 40 knot 925mb low level jet out of the southwest.
Further aloft, models resolve 50-60 knot 850mb winds, but these will
be more out of the west-southwest. In the mid and upper levels,
winds retain more of a northwesterly component on the backside of
the previous day`s mid/upper level trough. Altogether, this suggests
that the depth of the moisture return out ahead of Wednesday
morning`s clipper-type system will be limited. The best
precipitation chances accordingly remain displaced to the northeast
of the forecast area, but expect increased cloud cover and breezy
winds overnight. Such a set up will insulate overnight lows to above-
freezing values before a cold front associated with that system
pushes through on Wednesday morning.

That boundary looks rather weak, with only a subtle shift in winds
towards the west and little to no associated cold air advection
behind it. Shortwave ridging may briefly clear the clouds on
Wednesday afternoon, but the resultant increase in solar radiation
would allow afternoon highs to climb towards the 50s. Furthermore,
the progressive nature of the overarching synoptic pattern will
allow another troughing disturbance to approach from the west on
Wednesday evening. Models resolve this feature as much stronger and
better defined than its predecessor, and it has the potential to
produce greater sensible weather impacts as a result.

As leeward cyclogenesis takes place upstream on Wednesday night, the
previous day`s boundary is expected to lift back north as a warm
front. As surface winds back towards the south in response, models
generally resolve the return of 35-45 knot flow at 925 mb and 50-60
knot flow at 850mb out ahead of it on Thursday. This time, all of
this low level flow will be out of the southwest, and the deeper
nature of the parent trough means that the moisture return out ahead
of this second system is expected to be much more effective than the
first. Median PWAT values surge to around 1.00 inch in the latest
LREF Grand Ensemble data, and this is on the higher end of
climatological guidance. The mean moisture parameter data remains
lower then the median, suggesting that there could be a skew towards
lower values, but the signal for excessive rainfall does not look as
impressive as it was at this time yesterday. A Marginal (Level 1/5)
Excessive Rainfall Outlook remains in place for the entire forecast
area on Thursday, but the timing, track, and exact evolution of the
resultant surface low pressure system is currently uncertain. If a
more southeastern track comes to fruition, the better moisture
return regime could be confined to the south of the forecast area.
Recent ECMWF guidance has trended in this direction, and the
previous QPF signal in the EFI/SOT has become more muted. Cloud
cover and rain chances are still expected to increase overnight into
Thursday morning in response to this set up, then persist throughout
much of the day. The positive tilt of the parent trough, persistent
cloud cover, and temps in the 40s/50s will limit the amount of
available shear and instability, and thus the thunderstorm chances
with this system. However, some of the rain showers could still
contain heavier rainfall rates, especially immediately ahead of the
system`s cold front and in the southern half of the forecast area.
There, lift will be maximized, and there is a 30-50% chance of at
least 1 inch of rain across the forecast area by the time the FROPA
occurs.

Most models depict the return of postfrontal ridging on Friday into
Saturday, with quasi-zonal flow aloft. This allows the warming trend
to continue through the end of the long term forecast period, but
the forecast uncertainty compounds towards the very end of the
period. The standard deviation of the available ensemble-based MOS
temperature guidance spikes to between 5 and 7 next weekend, with
even greater numbers in the precipitation guidance. In the baseline
NBM guidance used to populate the long term forecast grids, this
corresponds with a 15 to 25 degree spread between the 25th and 75th
percentile temperature guidance and a prolonged period of slight
chance PoPs early next week. It is difficult to pinpoint specific
forecast details amidst that magnitude of model spread, so interests
with outdoor plans next weekend are encouraged to stay tuned to
future forecast updates.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026

Generally MVFR and IFR conditions were commonplace at the 06Z TAF
issuance time, with some VFR in the far west - between the upper
waves bringing the snow showers. Winds are generally northwest at
10 to 15 kts, with some gusts approaching 20 kts. Scattered snow
showers remain generally east of I-75 and to the south of I-64
with the more persistent snow showers in higher elevations
adjacent to the KY-VA border. Some brief IFR reductions or the
lower end of the MVFR range may occur with snow showers during
renewed activity through 09Z with that next wave - generally
occurring from near KSYM to KJKL to the VA border including KSJS.
Otherwise, MVFR or VFR should generally prevail for the first 6 to
12 hours of the period, with MVFR or IFR most common east of I-75
and within snow showers. Winds will average from the northwest at
10 to 15 kts with some gusts near 25 kts into the day -
diminishing a bit during the evening as CIGs improve west to
east.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for KYZ087-
088-110-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...MARCUS/GREIF
AVIATION...JP/GREIF