Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

716
FXUS63 KJKL 220906
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
506 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record or near-record highs in the mid/upper 80s are
  anticipated this afternoon, along with gusty winds up to 30 mph.

- A well-defined, and rather strong, cold front will bring
  widespread showers and thunderstorms to the area tonight.

- Strong to severe storms are possible immediately ahead of this
  boundary, with damaging wind gusts and large hail the primary
  concerns.

- The airmass behind this front will be noticeably cooler and
  significantly drier. This could lead to critical fire weather
  conditions on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 435 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026

08Z sfc analysis shows eastern Kentucky remains in the large warm
sector ahead of an approaching low pressure system and its cold
front - currently well northwest of the area. This has kept
conditions mild on light - mostly southwest - flow over the
region, though thinness and breaks in the mainly high clouds also
allowed for radiational cooling and decent temperature drops in
the sheltered valleys. Accordingly, we note a ridge to valley
temperature difference this night with readings varying from the
mid 40s in the most sheltered low spots to the low 60s in the
ridge top thermal belts. Meanwhile, amid light and variable winds,
dewpoints are generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Some fog
will be possible in the far southeast through dawn due to a pocket
of scattered convection that exited the area earlier in the
night.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in pretty
good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict a much weakened 5h ridge over the far
southwest - beaten down by near zonal energy flow at mid levels
slowly settling in from the north and suppressing the higher
heights to the south. For the eastern Kentucky area, this has
meant broad northwest flow at mid levels through the weekend that
will continue for most of the day. However, a digging, and rather
large, short wave trough pushes into the Ohio Valley tonight
bringing 5h height falls and a distinct batch of mid level energy
enveloping the area by 06Z. This will pass by on Monday morning
with heights starting to rebound at 5h by that afternoon - though
another impulse will be nearing from the west. The continued
similar model solutions through the short term portion of the
forecast, supported the NBM as the starting point of the grids.
The main adjustments made to this initialization were to
incorporate more in the way PoP and thunder details from the
latest CAMs to help better refine the convective concerns moving
in from the north this evening before waning during the overnight
hours.

Sensible weather features a very warm - record breaking - day
across Kentucky with southwest winds kicking in at 10 to 20 mph
and gusts as high as 30 mph. This occurs ahead of a southward
moving cold front approaching later this evening. The main
concern is that the moisture surge and warmth ahead of this
boundary will be able to fuel strong to severe thunderstorms with,
and in advance of, the boundary. Many of the CAMs are modeling
this situation with some discrete cells able to form and drift
east out ahead the main cold front. These would have the best
potential to become severe with all modes of svr threats including
tornadoes and large hail. The good news for us, south of the Ohio
River, is that most high resolution models show this development
to be short lived and potentially undercut by the cold front
itself before it gets too deep into northeast Kentucky. If this
event pans out that way we would still have a threat of strong to
damaging wind gusts with the storms along the front itself into
the night as it progresses south with time, though weakening. We
will be monitoring the situation through the upcoming shifts for
the potential of any discrete pre-frontal cells to form and sink
into our northern counties before being absorbed into the main
front. Once the front is the lone player, it will slowly settle
through the area bringing up to a half an inch of rain and colder
- but more near normal - temperatures by 12Z Monday. Drying
conditions follow into the day as the new work week gets underway
with a chill in the air on brisk northerly winds - even as high
pressure tries to clear out the clouds by that afternoon from
northwest to southeast while returning temperatures to the lower
50s north and around 60s south.

The changes to the NBM starting point primarily consisted of
adjusting the PoPs to reflect the CAMs consensus scenarios this
evening and overnight. Did also take down the dewpoints a bit
this afternoon due to mix down of a little bit drier air aloft.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 459 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

The long term forecast period opens in the wake of the frontal
boundary responsible for the activity discussed above in the short
term AFD. Postfrontal, cool/dry northerly low level flow will
persist into the overnight hours on Monday and allow temperatures to
drop to below-normal readings by Tuesday morning. The diurnal
weakening of those winds amidst a weak surface pressure gradient
supports the idea of ridge-valley decoupling after sunset. While
there is a signal for increasing cloud cover after midnight,
forecast model soundings/cross sections indicate that this will
likely come in the form of high clouds streaming off a disturbance
to the northwest of the forecast area. If this sky cover is thicker
or lower than what is currently expected, it could prohibit an
overnight temperature split. However, given the antecedent low-level
dryness and the favorable synoptics, the current MinT forecast grids
reflect it developing. Sheltered/shaded valley locales may dip below
the freezing mark on Tuesday morning, so any early-season gardeners
should monitor for future forecast updates. Atop area ridges,
temperatures should stay well above the freezing mark and closer to
the mid/upper 30s.

Another day of efficient diurnal mixing is forecast for Tuesday as
the postfrontal surface high begins to shift east. Any overnight
cloud cover is expected to clear by midday, and surface winds should
shift to a more easterly orientation by Tuesday afternoon. The lack
of a northerly wind component reduces the amount of CAA in the
column on Tuesday, and this suggests that highs will warm up a
little bit more than they did on Monday under mostly clear skies.
However, the aforementioned mixing, downsloping, and persistence of
dry air advection will tank dewpoints into the lower 20s/upper teens
across much of the forecast area around the same time as peak
diurnal heating. Forecast highs in the low to mid 60s correspond
with greater than 40 degree dewpoint depressions and MinRH readings
below the critical 25% threshold across much of Eastern Kentucky on
Tuesday afternoon. The progressive/weakening nature of the
previously-discussed Sunday night rain showers means that fuels will
likely not be very wet leading into these dry conditions, further
adding to the fire weather concerns. The weak nature of those
easterly winds means that Red Flag Warning criteria will likely not
be met, but the very dry conditions and potentially poor ventilation
suggests that a Fire Weather SPS may be needed. Fire weather
interests are encouraged to pay close attention to fire-specific
products in this time frame, and the general public is encouraged to
heed all local/state regulations and restrictions related to
burning.

Moisture return begins to kick into gear on Wednesday as the
overarching synoptics shift further to the east. This shift veers
low-level flow towards the south/southwest through Thursday, when
the next synoptic-scale system looks to approach from the northwest.
However, model spread begins to increase late in the forecast
period, and it remains difficult to pinpoint the exact evolution of
said system. There is still a low (<25% chance) chance for warm air
advection-type light rain showers on Wednesday in the time-lagged
baseline NBM forecast data, but recent pieces of forecast guidance
continue to trend the daytime hours drier. More meaningful rain
chances spread across the area on Wednesday night as a subtle
shortwave disturbance propagates through the west-northwesterly flow
aloft. A second, better-defined disturbance will bring the next cold
front into the Ohio River Valley in the latter stages of the work
week. The greatest PoPs in the long term forecast period are
situated ahead of that boundary on Thursday night into Friday, but
it is currently uncertain how far south the front will drop and thus
how long those PoPs will persist. Guidance previously stalled it out
in the vicinity of the forecast area, largely in response to a
blocking ridge over the Gulf Coast states. On the other hand, last
night`s deterministic guidance suite resolved a more progressive
system with drier weather moving in quicker behind the boundary.
Thus, compounding forecast uncertainty makes it difficult to
pinpoint specific sensible weather details like QPF and the timing
of any associated convection at the present moment. Expect
temperatures to tick warmer ahead of that system though, with highs
approaching the 70s on Wednesday and then the 80s on Thursday.
Behind it, expect lows to dip into the 30s again, as is typical
within these springtime systems here in Eastern Kentucky.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the majority of the TAF
forecast. After a quiet night and most of the day, we will see a
cold front and some synoptic driven convection work into the area
from the north this evening. From this, brief reductions in
visibility and lowering cloud decks are anticipated - perhaps
affecting the northern terminals toward the end of this forecast
cycle. Winds will average light and variable through 12Z, but then
as the nocturnal inversion mixes out through 15Z, sustained winds
should increase to between 5 and to 12 kts, with gusts to around
20 kts. Winds during peaking heating may reach roughly the 8 to 15
kts range with gusts up to 25 kts.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...JP/GREIF