Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

175
FXUS63 KJKL 040102 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
802 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and snow which persists will change to mostly snow this
  evening, with small accumulations possible.

- Seasonably cold temperatures with some ups and downs are
  forecast through next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 800 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026

Some snow and sleet has occurred here at JKL with temperatures
above freezing over the past hour to hour and a half. A band of
snow in the northwest portion of the CWA has largely moved south
of Fleming County, though recent webcam imagery from KYTC on I-64
at MP 133 indicate snow getting on KY 801 and I-64. Other KY
Mesonet cameras suggest some snow falling at locations generally
near and north of the Mtn Parkway. Some recent convective
allowing guidance suggests a max in snowfall near the I-64
corridor. Temperatures in the counties within the ongoing Winter
Weather Advisory are at or near the freezing mark per recent
observations. For the time being, the winter weather advisory
remains in place, but will evaluate the need for possible SPS for
counties further southeast as the band/area of snow moves east
southeast across northern and northeastern counties and
temperatures there fall. Also with time, there remains concern
that ice may be lacking in the clouds at least at times. This
leads to a concern for some freezing precipitation. Trends will
continue to be monitored.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 426 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026

An upper level wave bringing a transient strengthening of an
eastern CONUS upper trough is currently approaching us from the
northwest. An associated surface low is over the TN Valley. Warm
air advection/isentropic lift ahead of the low in combination
with the advancing trough will bring precipitation to the area
tonight into Wednesday. Temperatures are currently well above
freezing, mainly in the upper 30s and lower 40s. As a result, any
precip late this afternoon would be mainly rain. However, as the
surface system passes, colder air will return from the north and
precipitation should transition to mostly snow. Latest timing of
precip with cold air yields less than an inch of snow, even in the
present advisory area. However, with the product already in place
will let it ride this evening. There is some potential for ice
production in the clouds to be lost tonight as higher level
moisture dries up. This could result in precip falling as
supercooled water and giving us a bit of freezing drizzle or very
light freezing rain, but any accumulations would be extremely
light. The precipitation is expected to be dissipating and sinking
south with time tonight and Wednesday. The surface system will be
long gone, but the upper trough won`t be passing until late
Wednesday night. Surface ridging will also be building in from the
northwest on Wednesday night. This will finally bring an end to
any very light precipitation and probably allow for clouds to
start breaking up from northwest to southeast late Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 303 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026

The forecast period begins on the backside of a departing system as
surface high pressure builds into the region. Upper-level
northwesterly flow will maintain CAA, resulting in suppressed
temperatures to start the period. Afternoon highs are expected to
reach the mid-20s across the Bluegrass region, while areas toward
the Tennessee and Virginia state lines will likely warm into the mid-
30s. From Thursday night into Friday, boundary layer winds will
shift from the northwest to the west, initiating a period of WAA
ahead of the next system.

Friday features the approach of a shortwave trough progged to
migrate through the Great Lakes. This feature will drive a mid-level
wind shift and facilitate the transport of a warmer air mass into
the Commonwealth. Precipitation is expected to develop ahead of the
associated warm front. Initial profiles will be cold enough to
support snow showers; however, as the front lifts through the region
and surface temperatures follow the diurnal heating curve, a
transition to a wintry mix and eventually plain rain is expected by
Friday afternoon, particularly for eastern portions of the
CWA.Behind the warm front, temperatures are forecast to climb into
the upper-30s in the Bluegrass and the upper-40s along the Tennessee
border. This warming trend will be brief. By Friday evening, the
shortwave will exit to the east, allowing a CAA regime to re-
establish itself Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures will
reflect this air mass change, with overnight lows falling into the
teens and mid-20s, and Saturday highs limited to the mid-20s and mid-
30s.

Model confidence begins to diverge Sunday and into early next week.
Current forecast grids reflect a system tracking across the Ohio
Valley that may skirt the CWA before high pressure returns,
potentially bringing above-average temperatures. However,
deterministic long-term guidance remains split. The ECMWF depicts a
shortwave traversing the Ohio Valley, consistent with the current
blended forecast. Conversely, the GFS remains dry for the forecast
area and much of the eastern CONUS during this window. At this time,
the forecast leans toward the weighted ECMWF solution.

Overall, the period is highlighted by a series of progressive waves.
The first quick-moving system arrives late week, with a second
arriving late weekend. While temperature fluctuations remain
transitory, a broader warming trend appears probable for the end of
the weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026

Mainly MVFR with some instances of vis down into the IFR range due
to either snow falling in more northern locations or where rain
was falling onto snow/ice cover with temperatures above freezing.
A continued deterioration to IFR or lower conditions is expected
to occur through the first 3 or so hours of the period. Sub-VFR
conditions should largely last through the end of the period,
though northern locations such as KSYM could see brief improvement
to VFR for a few hours near 12Z. Precipitation should transition
to mainly snow from north to south during the first 12 hours of
the period or so, but it will also become less intense and more
focused in the south. Also, precipitation could fall as freezing
drizzle at times as guidance suggests the presence of ice in the
clouds could be marginal at times. Winds will be light through the
period, generally from the northeast to north.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for KYZ044-
050>052.


&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...JP