Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

502
FXUS63 KJKL 052311
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
711 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and drier air arrives and settle in through the first
  half of the week.

- A Frost Advisory is in effect for late tonight into Monday
  morning. Frost is also possible Monday night and Tuesday night,
  with a few of the normally colder and sheltered valley locations
  possibly experiencing a freeze Monday night and/or Tuesday
  night.

- Temperatures climb to 10 to 15 degrees above normal during the
  second half of the week, with rain-free weather expected.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 711 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2026

Late day obs were blended into the forecast. Have also lowered
forecast min temps for tonight slightly in some valleys, with
coldest readings around 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 244 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2026

An upper level trough with primary axis extending from the Great
Lakes south through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys will gradually
lift northeast through the short-term period, with a shortwave
pushing a dry cold front southeast across the Ohio River Valley
late in the day Monday.

The main impactful forecast challenge will be the moderate to high
potential for frost to develop across the area both tonight and
again Monday night. There is high confidence for lows tonight in the
30s area-wide, but it appears valleys and low-lying areas will have
the best chance at frost with lows in the lower to mid 30s, while
higher elevations are looking more like mid to upper 30s for lows.
With agricultural areas in the colder valleys, a Frost Advisory
has been issued for tonight into Monday morning.

Similar conditions are expected Monday night with widespread lows in
the 30s once again, but will be complicated a bit by the passage of
a reinforcing cold front Monday evening into the early overnight.
There is some potential for sufficient mixing and cold advection
through the night to keep frost conditions from occurring, but still
think winds will decouple toward morning, especially in the valleys,
which should allow for widespread frost formation to occur. A few
isolated colder locations may reach freeze conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 251 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2026

Below normal temperatures are expected Tuesday in the wake of the
reinforcing cold front Monday evening/night, with highs only
reaching the mid 50s north to lower 60s south. Surface high pressure
will be moving off to the east, however, and allowing for return
southerly flow to develop by Wednesday afternoon. This sets up a
good scenario for a larger ridge-valley split for Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning, with the potential for frost/freeze
conditions once again, particularly in the valleys.

Southerly low-level flow will also support low humidity through
much of the week due to a downslope component off of higher
terrain to the south and southeast. Significant ridge-valley
splits in temperatures are thus expected during the overnight
periods through the week, with colder valleys possibly seeing
additional rounds of frost formation through at least Thursday
night.

Otherwise, the main story of the long-term period will be the
lengthy period of rain-free weather extending into next weekend,
and the strengthening warm advection resulting in temperatures
returning to 10 to 15 degrees above normal by late in the week.
Note that these temperatures, especially daytime highs, may trend
higher later this week as the deterministic NBM values are
currently on the lower side of the probabilistic envelope.

A cold front moving southeast toward the area late week into next
weekend may allow for a remote/low chance of showers and
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. However, the vast majority of
model guidance at that time frame indicates the activity will
remain north of the Ohio River.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 711 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Lingering fair wx
cu will dry up this evening, with no ceilings forecast then
through the day Monday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Monday for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...HAL