Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

147
FXUS63 KJKL 231015
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
515 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A major winter storm brings significant, impactful snow and ice
  accumulations this weekend.

- Bitter cold weather returns tonight and lasts through next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 515 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026

09Z sfc analysis shows a dry Arctic cold front pressing south into
Kentucky with a band of mid level clouds crossing the southeastern
part of the state ahead of it. The front is bringing with it a
much colder air mass on brisk northwest to north winds of 5 to 10
mph with higher gusts. Currently, temperatures vary from the mid
to upper 20s most places, but near 20 in the sheltered valleys.
Meanwhile, dewpoints range from the low 20s southwest to the
single digits northeast.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, continue to be
in very good agreement aloft through the short term portion of
the forecast, though some differences start to show up late in the
thermal and wind fields of the lower levels. They all depict the
persistent, large 5h gyre dominating the continent and extended
south to the Ohio River this morning. This feature is starting to
connect to the offshore closed trough near the Baja Peninsula. It
is this significant anomaly that will make for a quite memorable
winter weather event over our area through the weekend. Fast, near
zonal, flow will tilt southwesterly over Kentucky and the region
into Saturday ahead of the slowly approaching southwestern trough.
This system phases downstream into a full latitude trough for the
latter part of the weekend complete with 3h jet interaction and
dynamics supporting strongly enhanced lift throughout the area.
Late Saturday, the higher resolution NAM shows a much stronger 850
jet from the south impinging on southeastern Kentucky than the
quite similar ECMWF and GFS. This leads to a much larger and
northward intrusion of warm air off the sfc that night in the NAM.
Countering this effect will be the tendency for the cold dense
dome of Arctic air to be tough to dislodge. The net result would
seem to favor more sleet and freezing rain in the south rather
than either just rain or snow. The bulk of this takes place after
the short term period but the precursor conditions set up on
Saturday. These important discrepancies in the main models lead
to continued poor confidence in specific snow or ice amounts - but
winter storm conditions for most of the area nonetheless. Given
the near term model similarities for the bulk of the period the
NBM comprised the starting point of the forecast grids with
adjustments made to QPF and timing based on the CAMs and a
consensus of the operational models. Snow ratios were also
fragmented to hourly as the thermal changes take place after 18Z
Saturday.

Sensible weather features cold temperatures in place and getting
colder through dawn as that Arctic front moves in. Expect only a
small rebound during the daylight hours before resuming a sharp
drop tonight. This bitter cold air mass will be accompanied by
stiff northwest winds resulting in wind chills down into the 0 to
5 degrees below zero range by Saturday morning - and slow to
improve. For this reason a Cold Weather Advisory has been issued
tonight through noon Saturday, though the far greater concern is
the highly impactful winter storm that starts on Saturday morning.
The cold air will ensure that the pcpn from this system starts out
as snow and stays that way for the entire area until late
afternoon when an extended warm nose near 850mb could nudge across
the border from Tennessee and change the pcpn to sleet in the far
south - but working north with time into the night.

The changes to the NBM starting point primarily consisted of QPF
adjustments for the arrival of the pcpn on Saturday. Did also
allow for a but of extra advection cooling tonight in the higher
terrain.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 507 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026

The forecast period begins with a surface low tracking parallel to
the Gulf Coast, with its associated precipitation shield expanding
northward into the Great Lakes. This synoptic setup places eastern
Kentucky within a complex winter weather regime. At the onset,
precipitation will begin as snow; however, through the evening and
overnight hours, the warm conveyor belt will introduce a pronounced
elevated warm layer. This will lead to a transition toward a wintry
mix. In far southeastern Kentucky, the column may warm sufficiently
to transition snow to all rain. Moving northwest, where the warm
nose is most impactful, a combination of rain, freezing rain, sleet,
and snow is expected. Further northwest, a more muted warm nose will
favor a sleet and snow mix. Areas along and southeast of a line from
Pulaski to Pike County, where rain, freezing rain, and sleet are the
predominant precipitation types, will see snowfall totals of 3 to 5
inches and ice accumulations of 0.2 to 0.4 inches. Areas northwest
of this line will see heavier snow and sleet, with accumulations of
7 to 14 inches and ice totals between 0 and 0.2 inches. The highest
snowfall totals, near 14 inches, are forecast along the I-64
corridor and the Bluegrass. These totals remain sensitive to the
storm track; any latitudinal deviation or changes in thermal
profiles will significantly impact accumulations. As the system
ejects northeast along the Appalachians, mixed precipitation
probabilities will continue through early Sunday morning. As the low
moves east, CAA will transition all precipitation back to snow,
leading to additional accumulations through Monday morning.

Behind the departing low, an Arctic high will settle over the
region. Strong CAA will usher in the coldest temperatures of the
season, with Monday highs struggling to reach the upper teens or mid-
20s. Overnight lows Monday night are expected to drop into the
single digits or below zero, enhanced by optimal radiational cooling
over a fresh snowpack. A shift to quasi-zonal flow will allow a
gradual moderating trend into the 20s and 30s later in the week. A
weak clipper system is forecast to move through the Great Lakes mid-
week, bringing a renewed threat of light snowfall through early
Thursday afternoon. LREF ensemble probabilities suggest a dusting to
one inch is possible with this clipper. Cold high pressure returns
Thursday, ushering in another round of cold temperatures with
daytime highs in the 20s and overnight lows ranging from the
negatives to single digits.

A significant storm system originating from the Southern Plains will
bring widespread snowfall and a wintry mix to the region through the
weekend. Following the storm, an Arctic air mass will result in the
coldest temperatures of the season, exacerbated by clear skies and
snow cover. A passing clipper is forecast to bring additional light
accumulations followed by more cold temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026

High pressure is still in place across eastern Kentucky,
resulting in fairly benign conditions - VFR CIGS/VIS and
generally calm winds. A weak and dry cold front is analyzed to
move through this (Friday) morning, but should have little impact
other than a wind shift to the north (though still below 10kts
sustained) and possibly some high clouds. Did go ahead and include
this wind shift in the TAFs. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected to persist through the TAF period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to noon EST
Saturday for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-
106>120.

Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Monday for
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...JMW