Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

373
FXUS63 KJKL 202111
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
411 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There will be a brief warm-up Wednesday and Thursday before very
  cold weather returns and lasts into next week.

- There is a chance for light precipitation - primarily rain - on
  Wednesday and Wednesday night.

- A winter storm system could bring significant snow
  accumulations this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 409 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2026

An upper trough will persist over the central and eastern CONUS
through the short term period-- especially the northern states.
An impulse rotating through the trough will send a weakening cold
front southeast toward us from the Midwest tonight and Wednesday,
while surface high pressure currently over the region departs to
the east. Warm air advection between the departing high and the
approaching front will occur until the front dies over our area
on Wednesday. With mainly clear skies tonight and a very cold air
mass currently in place, it will set us up for ridge/valley
temperature differences overnight, with the coldest valleys
potentially reaching single digits again. Increasing low level
flow may be able to stir the air enough to warm some valleys
before dawn. The warm air advection will also bring moisture north
and northeast from the gulf, overriding the lingering cooler air
here. This will initially give us virga on Wednesday, but as the
low levels moisten, precip should make it to the ground Wednesday
afternoon. It will be warm enough for rain by that time in all
areas except our highest elevations by the VA border. It`s
uncertain how much of the area will be able to measure vs. getting
just sprinkles. POP in this forecast issuance is in the chance
range Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. The front dies
and the remaining moisture channel shifts to our southeast
Wednesday night, leaving us with lingering clouds and milder lows.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2026

At the open Thursday, a cutoff low off the California coastline, and
a dominate area of high pressure over Western Ontario. Thursday
should remain largely quite across Eastern Kentucky, with
temperatures warming into the mid to upper 40s across the area.
Scattered shower chances creep into the areas along and south of the
KY-80/Hal-Rogers corridor, in the early evening. As temperatures
cool into the low to mid 20s overnight, these showers will
changeover to snow showers. A few tenths of an inch of snow may
fall, with little to no major impacts expected.

Friday, will see mostly cloudy skies with highs in the upper 20s to
upper 30s, north to south across the area. A dry cold front will
move through CWA during the day, bringing colder air to the region
Friday night. Lows Friday night range from single digits along and
north of the I-64 corridor, to the low to mid teens along the TN/VA
boarders with Kentucky.

A Gulf low will stream moisture northward into the Tennessee Valley,
while a secondary lob of Arctic air will spill south into the
Midwest, and Ohio Valley. This will likely setup an area of snowfall
across Kentucky through the weekend. Models vary on how progressive
the cutoff low off the Baja/California coastline is, but
nevertheless this system will eject across the TX/OK area and into
the Tennessee Valley. The oddity with this system impacting Kentucky
over the weekend is the lack of any low level jet. Most models
continue to show this absence, however the 12Z Euro did show a
little bit of an 850-mb jet around Tennessee, which would likely
contribute to more sufficient snowfall rates. Model soundings also
show strong winds within the dendritic growth zone (DGZ). The
presence of 60-70 knot winds within this layer may lead to fractured
dendrites and thus smaller snowflakes. With this in mind, JKL and
neighboring offices collaborated to use NBM snow ratios over the
higher WPC snow ratios. At current JKL and neighboring offices also
used WPC QPF for the weekend storm over the more aggressive NBM QPF.
The greatest uncertainty remains on low level forcing needed for
sufficient snowfall growth and rates. With the absence of a low-
level jet, that may be difficult to obtain. Even still, confidence
is growing that the area will see heavy to significant snowfall. The
00Z Grand Ensemble run of the LREF showed the area with a 35-65%
chance of exceeding 4 inches of snowfall.

As cold arctic air settles into the areas Saturday, temperatures
will struggle to reach 20s north of the Hal-Rogers/KY-80 corridor.
South of that area, temperatures will range from the upper to mid
20s. Saturday evening, snows showers will continue, with lows in the
teens. Sunday afternoon, snow showers will slowly taper off west to
east across the area heading into the night. Temperatures will range
from the low to upper 20s north to south across the area.

Cold air will continue to advect into the area Sunday night and to
start next week, with lows in the single digits across much of the
area. Monday and Tuesday, although quiet, will also be quite cold.
Highs will struggle to reach 30 on Monday, only to fall into the
single digits again at night. Southwesterly winds Tuesday will help
to advect warm air into the region, with highs reaching the upper
20s to low 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the period. Low level flow
will increase significantly on Wednesday morning, especially just
off the ground. This brings a potential for low level wind shear.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...HAL