Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

707
FXUS63 KJKL 221205 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
805 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms return today. A few strong to severe
  storms are possible, bringing a threat for an isolated tornado
  or damaging wind gusts.

- An unsettled and wet pattern continues through the Memorial
  Day weekend and into next week with repeated rounds of rain
  and thunderstorms.

- Heavy downpours are likely with this activity. Total rainfall
  amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected through Saturday morning
  with locally higher amounts and flash flooding concerns,
  especially along and north of the I-64 corridor.

- Despite the rain, it will be warm and humid through the holiday
  weekend with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 730 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids
along with PoPs per the current radar and CAMs guidance. These
minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along
with a freshening of the zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 435 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026

08Z sfc analysis shows a warm front starting to lift north through
eastern Kentucky. This is responsible for the renewed surge in
convection for the Cumberland Valley this night. Elsewhere, low
clouds and fog are plaguing the area - especially on the ridges.
The pattern change of late has brought a very moist air mass into
the state and we are feeling every bit of it this night.
Specifically, amid northeast winds of 5 to 10 mph, dewpoints vary
from the mid 50s northeast to the low and mid 60s in the south.
Meanwhile, temperatures are quite uniform in the higher humidity
environment - generally in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, appear to be in
great agreement aloft, through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict ridging over the Southeast and off-shore
at 5h while broad troughing is found through the mid section of
the nation southwest across southern California. Within this
large negative height field, several smaller and more contained
features are noteworthy. The strongest one that stands out is a
shortwave digging through the High Plains this morning while
closer to home a less consolidated mass of mid-level energy is
lifting through the Mid Mississippi Valley towards Kentucky. This
wave will gradually move through the Ohio Valley by Saturday
morning bringing some height falls to eastern Kentucky as it does
so. In its wake - heading deeper into the Memorial Day weekend -
southwest mid level flow will be maintained for our area and
pretty much locked in place by the larger longwave pattern
anchored by persistent and deep shortwave troughing over the
Northern Plains. Given the very good symmetry among the models,
the NBM was used as the starting point for the short term grids
with little reservation. The main adjustments made to this
initialization were to include additional higher resolution timing
and placement details for the PoPs from the latest CAMs guidance.

Sensible weather features a nearly washed out start to the holiday
weekend (with similar prospects through the rest of it). A well
hydrated frontal boundary only slowly lifting through the area
will combine with the energy and wind field aloft, along with the
diurnal heating cycle, to produce widespread showers and
increasingly - into the afternoon - more thunderstorms. These
storms will certainly have the potential to become organized and
strong given the building instability and forecast soundings. In
fact, the winds aloft look favorable for supercell development -
especially if discrete cells develop - with effective shear at 30
kts and SRH from sfc to 3km topping 200 m2/s2. Looking at the
progged hodographs for the area the vectors form a fairly large
curved trace with a healthy loop midway up. For this reason, most
of the area is in a Marginal Risk for severe weather today into
this evening from the SPC. In addition, the tornado potential is
highlighted given the soundings and hodographs. Meanwhile, the WPC
has placed the entire area in a Marginal Risk for excessive
rainfall through Saturday morning with a Slight Risk denoted
generally along and north of Interstate 64 and south into the
heart of the JKL CWA. The northern parts of the area has received
a pretty good dousing the past few days and could be primed for
flooding issues given the lower flash flood guidance values.
Accordingly, in coordination with surrounding offices, have gone
out with a Flash Flood Watch for those northern counties through
12Z Saturday. Other locations are not in the clear though as there
have been some localized patches of heavier rains up to now with
models indicating more on the way through Saturday morning. Even
after the initial wave passes that morning, additional showers and
storms, though less widespread, are anticipated through Saturday
afternoon and beyond - ruining or certainly dampening many
outdoor plans this weekend.

The changes to the NBM starting point mainly consisted of
including PoP and thunder details from the latest CAMs guidance
through Saturday. As for temperatures and dewpoints, they were
not adjusted much given the moist air mass - but did shave the
highs back toward modeled hourly temps each afternoon and likewise
at night, yielding milder lows.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026

An amplified and blocky long wave pattern will remain in control
through next week. A ridge axis will remain anchored across the
western Atlantic through Tuesday, while a broad trough gradually
makes its way from south central Canada through the Plains to the
Ohio Valley and eventually New England. Meanwhile, a deep trough
will move across the West Coast, with an upper level low drifting
south over the Great Basin. By the middle of next week, a REX-type
blocking pattern will be in place across the center of the CONUS,
with the low centered over the southern Plains, and the high
positioned near western Ontario. This will set up a prolonged period
of unsettled weather across eastern Kentucky, as a surface frontal
boundary gets hung up in the vicinity of the region. PWATs will be
running above the 95th percentile compared to climatology for much
of the period. Locally heavy rainfall will be a concern, as
successive days of more significant rainfall could eventually
compromise some basins, despite the drier antecedent conditions and
generally well below normal streamflows.

On Saturday night, better forcing and deeper moisture will be
exiting off to our northeast, with rain chances diminishing through
the night. Another short wave will be moving through the Ohio Valley
Sunday into Sunday night. While the core of this energy remains to
our north, some 500 mb height falls, heating, and the nearby surface
boundary should focus numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms
across the area. Again, a gradual diminishment in activity is
expected after dusk with the loss of heating. Monday through
Wednesday, as short wave energy rotates northward from the southern
Plains, this will likely sharpen up the remnant surface boundary,
potentially allowing for more organized bouts of showers and
thunderstorms across the region. There still remains plenty of
uncertainty regarding the details, given the complexity of the
pattern. By Thursday, rain chances will revert back to more of a
diurnally influenced regime, as eastern Kentucky becomes more
under control of the ridging aloft.

Temperatures will average above normal through the period, with
highs averaging from the upper 70s to around 80 through Tuesday,
before warming to the lower 80s for Wednesday and mid 80s
by Thursday. Lows each night will average in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026

Showers are moving into the area from the south as the accompany
warm front lifting back into our area. Still some low clouds and
fog common at issuance time for the northeast terminals while the
southern ones were clearer but with more moderate showers moving
through helping to reduce visibility. The front progresses through
the area today and it results in rounds of convection with
thunderstorms expected to be more abundant in the afternoon. most
sites will gradually improve into the MVFR range with occasional
lowering during more robust showers or storms. The thunderstorms
are possible through most of the time but will likely be most
prevalent in the the afternoon/early evening hours. Winds will
remain light through the period, generally under 10 kts -
primarily out of the northeast initially then veering southeast
to south with time.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KYZ044-050>052-104.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...VORST/JKL
AVIATION...GREIF