Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

142
FXUS63 KJKL 051248
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
748 AM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A weaker system will bring light precipitation in the form of
  rain and snow to portions of eastern Kentucky Friday into Friday
  night, mainly east of I-75.

- Snow accumulations up to 1 inch will be possible, with locally higher
  accumulations possible over the mountains along the Virginia
  border.

- Seasonably cold temperatures are forecast through this weekend
  before a warming trend emerges early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 748 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026

Freshened hourly temperatures and sky cover for the next several
hours to account for current trends. Current temperatures are
several degrees below the forecast north of Interstate 64.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 343 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026

An amplified upper trough axis stretching from over the New England
coastline to the north-central Gulf Coast will continue to move away
from the area today, with weak shortwave ridging over the area this
morning quickly giving way to a digging shortwave from the north-
northwest this afternoon. This will then be followed by a stronger
shortwave moving southeast across the Ohio Valley Friday within
an increasingly active northwesterly mid-level jet stream.

Low stratus will continue to clear from the north this morning,
but models show clouds quickly filling back in today from the
northwest with lowering ceilings this afternoon and evening, with
partly to mostly cloudy skies continuing through the overnight.

Precipitation chances increase Friday as an energetic shortwave
moves southeast and pushes a strong cold front across eastern
Kentucky. Models show good saturation in the dendritic growth zone
and decent instability as the upper PV anomaly and left exit region
of the slightly-curved upper-level jet stream move across the
northern and eastern parts of the forecast area, providing good
forcing for ascent. The system will be moving fast, which will
limit precipitation amounts, potential snow accumulations, and
resulting impacts.

Models suggest low-level partial thicknesses will be near borderline
critical thresholds for snow, but the thinking is that the strong
forcing for ascent will allow for precipitation to fall mostly as
snow, with a mix of rain and snow on the periphery of the better
forcing for ascent to the west and southwest. Given the
likelihood of air temperatures to fall to or near the wet-bulb
temperature, NBM forecast temperatures were undercut by up to a
few degrees especially in the northern part of the forecast area
for Friday, with actual highs expected closer to the lower to mid
30s across the northeastern half of the forecast area than the
NBM`s mid to upper 30s. With borderline critical partial thickness
values, the air temperature will likely play a pivotal role in how
much snow can accumulate and resulting impacts.

.LONG TERM...(After midnight Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 616 AM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

While this weekend`s sensible weather forecast will be dominated by
a potent cold air advection regime, the pattern looks to shift
headed into the upcoming work week. Cool, cyclonic flow around the
backside of the amplified Eastern CONUS troughing aloft favors
colder than normal conditions on Saturday and Sunday, but forecast
guidance collectively shifts that feature off to the east by Monday
morning. Ridging looks to build in from the Great Plains in its
wake, and the related midlevel height rises point towards a
noticeable early-week warming trend. That ridging is forecast to
flatten out and yield a quasi-zonal flow regime over the Greater
Ohio River Valley by midweek. Around this same time, a cutoff upper
level low is expected to open up into a shortwave disturbance and
eject into the Southern CONUS. The exact evolution of that upstream
feature remains uncertain, but its influence will cause (liquid)
precipitation chances to increase late in the period.

When the period opens on Friday evening, Eastern Kentucky will be
positioned on the backside of a departing clipper system. As low-
level flow shifts towards the northwest and strengthens amidst a
tightening pressure gradient, cold air advection will intensify.
This will cause temperatures to plummet below freezing after dark
and allow any ongoing precipitation to transition to snow. PoPs are
highest in locations east of I-75 corridor and south of I-64 on
Friday night, but will linger into early Saturday morning downstream
of the Pottsville Escarpment. Orographic lifting enhancements could
yield between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of additional accumulation on
northwest facing slopes, with the greatest totals expected in
places like Black Mountain. However, the lack of deep moisture with
this system and a slower changeover to snow in the more populated
valley locales should generally limit additional accumulations to
less than half an inch.

Temperatures are forecast to cool into the teens by Saturday
morning, with widespread wind chills in the single digits. Low level
flow is expected to become more northerly as the day progresses and
a post-frontal high nudges into the region. This will reinforce the
advection of a continental polar airmass into the forecast area, and
the drier nature of that airmass should result in a NW-to-SE
clearing trend on Saturday afternoon. Despite the clearer skies,
temperatures will struggle to warm much higher than the 20s on
Saturday afternoon, and  the persistent, blustery winds will make it
feel even colder. A few high clouds could stream into the area on
Saturday night, but efficient radiational cooling will drop MinTs a
few degrees colder than the previous night.

Another clipper system is forecast to pass through the Upper Ohio
River Valley on Sunday, but the synoptic features aloft will have
begun their eastward shift by then. That shift should keep the
favorable moisture and lift parameters displaced to the northeast of
the forecast area, but the system`s proximity will yield increasing
midlevel cloud cover in our northeastern counties. On the other
hand, the building ridge will suppress cloud cover in locations
further to the southwest. Thus, a tight SW-to-NE temperature
gradient appears increasingly likely on Sunday afternoon. Increasing
model spread makes it difficult to pinpoint the exact values within
this gradient, and the baseline NBM guidance used to populate the
long term forecast grids is warmer than much of the 00z
deterministic guidance. It is plausible for Sunday`s forecast
temperatures to trend downwards in future forecast packages, but
southwestern locales are the most likely to warm above freezing
and begin thawing out.

Temperatures are forecast to steadily moderate through the rest of
the long term forecast period, largely due to the increasing
influence of the ridge. Skies clear from SW to NE on Monday
afternoon, allowing temperatures to recover into the upper 40s
across the north and the 50s in the south. By Tuesday, the entire
forecast area will see daytime highs in the 50s, and the southern
half of the forecast area could make at run at 60 degrees. These
warmer-than-normal temperatures will allow any remaining winter
precipitation to melt off, but the warming temperatures will be met
with increasing moisture return by midweek. Precipitation chances
increase towards the 30-40% range on Wednesday and Thursday as an
upstream disturbance ejects out of the Southern Plains and towards
the forecast area. As mentioned before, the exact evolution of this
disturbance remains highly uncertain. This makes it difficult to
pinpoint details like QPF, but confidence in the forecast for above-
normal temperatures is high. By Wednesday morning, even the forecast
lows in the traditionally cooler valleys will be well above the
freezing mark. Thus, all of this midweek precipitation is poised to
fall as a plain, liquid rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 622 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026

A mixture of VFR ceilings in northern and northeastern KY to MVFR
ceilings further south was reported at issuance time. High
pressure is building into the region this morning and will cross
the area today. There remains uncertainty with the cig forecast
for today, with low clouds likely to linger over the southern half
of the forecast area through the morning but slowly lifting and
diminishing in coverage into the afternoon. Meanwhile, mid- and
high-level clouds will increase from the northwest with a passing
disturbance after 18z today and gradually lower through the
remainder of the period, possibly dropping to MVFR levels by the
end of the TAF period. Winds will generally be light and
variable before trending south-southwesterly at 7 kts or less
beginning Friday morning.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...CMC