Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

231
FXUS63 KJKL 181255 CCA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
755 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  A warming trend will last through Thursday, with some places
   potentially topping 70 degrees, especially Thursday.

-  The next likelihood of rain is Thursday and Thursday night,
   with a slight chance of thunderstorms in most of the area. A
   few storms could be strong to severe.

-  After a cold front passes early on Friday, colder air will
   arrive and last into next week. Snow showers are a possibility
   before the weekend is finished.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 750 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026

Gusty winds, cloudy skies and unusually warm temperatures are
noted across eastern Kentucky at update time. Thermometers are
generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s except for the most
sheltered northeastern hollows which are in the 40s to mid 50s.
Southerly winds have also been gusting to between 20 and 35 mph
in most places outside of the aforementioned coldest hollows. The
current forecast is largely in good shape other than some minor
adjustments to bring hourly temperature and sky cover forecasts
more inline with the latest observations. The chances for a little
spotty drizzle or passing light rain shower will gradually
increase through the remainder of the morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 415 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026

At 4 AM ET, temperatures range from the lower 40s in sheltered
northeastern hollows to the balmy upper 50s/lower 60s on ridges
and in more open/exposed valleys/terrain. This mild air mass is
due to strengthening return flow between departing high pressure
off the Southeast Coast--anchored by a 500 hPa ridge extending
from the Southern Appalachians to Northern Ontario--and a 985 mb
low over northeast South Dakota. A cold front extends south from
the low, with a pre-frontal trough extending east into the lower
Ohio Valley ahead of a 50-60 kt 850 hPa jet. This system is
associated with a pronounced 500 hPa shortwave trough over the
Northern Plains, ahead of a parent trough over the West Coast. A
plume of Gulf moisture is noted with this low-level jet with PWATs
nearing or exceeding the 90th percentile.

The moisture plume and low-level jet cross eastern Kentucky today
as the low occludes over the Upper Midwest and the cold front
sags into the mid-Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valleys. Forcing will be
limited by weak height falls as a modest vorticity lobe settles
southeast across the Coalfields this afternoon. Despite ample
moisture, lapse rates remain mostly stable and any lift is weak;
consequently, only a few light showers are expected ahead of the
vort lobe. However, breezy conditions will develop, with GFS
BUFKIT mixed-layer momentum transfer supporting gusts of 20 to 30
kts.

Meanwhile, energy from the West Coast trough ejects east-
northeast to the Central Plains by Thursday morning. This
initiates cyclogenesis over eastern Colorado this evening, then
tracking east-northeast along the remnant baroclinic zone. The
lower Ohio Valley becomes the epicenter for favorable shear and
instability on Thursday as the stalled boundary surges north as a
warm front. While the local air mass destabilizes weakly, better
warm sector forcing is modeled to stay north and west of the JKL
CWA, closer to the surface low track and favoring near and just
south of the I-70 corridor from eastern Illinois to western Ohio.
Unless convection develops/sustains along differential heating
boundaries, any severe potential likely holds off until the
arrival of the cold front on Thursday night. However, if any
afternoon convection does develop, supercellular structures are
possible, especially north of the Mountain Parkway.

In sensible weather terms, look for a mild, cloudy and
increasingly breezy Wednesday with temperatures rising into the
lower to middle 60s. Scattered light showers are possible, most
likely south of the Mountain Parkway, but with minimal rainfall
amounts (generally less than 0.05 inch). For tonight, it will be
partly to mostly cloudy with low temperatures mainly ranging in
the 50s. Scattered showers likely linger near and south of the Hal
Rogers Parkway/Highway 80 corridor. Thursday morning showers lift
north, though additional scattered afternoon showers and isolated
thunderstorms may develop, especially north of the Mountain
Parkway. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies with highs ranging
from the upper 60s north to the mid 70s south.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 423 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026

A surface low is modeled to be over the Ozarks with a warm front
expected to move north through Kentucky during the afternoon or
early evening Thursday. Showers will increase in coverage through
the evening as a cold front moves through overnight. Some
thunderstorms may be possible with the frontal passage, as a few
hundred Jules of CAPE may be available. While plenty of shear will
exist during the day (50-70 kts), by the time the front moves
through that drops to 35-45 kts; still more than enough to get
things going. The Storm Prediction Center has maintained the
Marginal (Level 1/5) Severe Weather Outlook for portions of the
forecast area northwest of a line stretching from Monticello to
London, Jackson, and Paintsville. Temperatures cool into the lower
50s to upper 50s, from west to east.

Friday, as the surface low lifts towards the Great Lakes, the
trailing cold front will pass through Eastern Kentucky early in the
morning. This will effectively cut precip off from NW to SE as the
front progresses east of the area. Skies will clear through the day,
with temperatures warming into the upper 50s to low 60s in the west,
to mid to upper 60s across the eastern most locations. As a larger
trough begins to dig south from the Northern Plains, winds veer
overnight from southwesterly to northwesterly. This shift in winds
will allow for colder air to advect into the area, and temperatures
to drop into the mid 30s to low 40s.

By Saturday, the frontal boundary that passed east of the area, is
modeled to stall out anywhere from Virginia down through the
Carolinas and back west through the Southeast US. Scattered showers
may be possible across the Southeast, as some vorticity lobes
work through Tennessee and Southern Kentucky early Saturday
morning. Saturday evening, the first in a series of quick moving
upper level lows will come through the Upper Mississippi Valley,
southeast into the Ohio River Valley. This will allow for colder
air to work south. Precipitation will start out as rain, with
temperatures Saturday reaching the low to upper 50s. However,
northerly winds through the day and evening will usher in colder
air, dropping temperatures into the lower 30s for most. Rain will
likely change over to a rain-snow mix before snow showers continue
through Sunday. Temperatures remain in the upper 30s to low 40s
through Sunday. POP chances were to high from 18Z Saturday through
00Z Monday given latest model and ensemble trends. In
collaboration with surrounding offices, POP chances were adjusted
down, but maintained slight chance to chance probabilities.
Sunday afternoon, the second quick hitting upper level low follows
the same track, which is modeled to produce light snow showers
across far eastern Kentucky through Sunday night, tapering off
Monday morning. This secondary upper level low also reinforces
colder air across the area. Temperatures drop into the mid 20s
Sunday night.

Monday, the area resides under an upper-level trough. Temperatures
remain in the 30s through the day, but the trough axis begins to
progress east of the area. CAA along with clearing skies at night
will allow for temperatures to plummet into the teens for much of the
area. Tuesday, with the influence of the upper level trough further
removed, heights begin to rise again, as weak ridging builds into
Eastern Kentucky. Tuesday temperatures warm into the low to mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 654 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026

VFR conditions prevailed at the start of the forecast period.
However, MVFR ceilings are forecast to develop from northwest to
southeast this morning as a cold front approaches. This will be
followed by the potential for light rain showers or a bit of
drizzle lingering into the afternoon/evening. Ceilings are
expected to further worsen into the IFR category for most
locations this afternoon and remain persistently low across
terminals south of the Mountain Parkway through tonight. Scattered
showers might redevelop from south to north late in the night.
Southwest winds at 5 to 15 kts with gust of 20 to 30 kts are also
expected through the day, courtesy of a low-level jet.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GEERTSON