Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

676
FXUS63 KJKL 251759
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
159 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers are likely into the morning, with a few thunderstorms
  possible as a weakening cold front and a couple of minor waves
  pass today.

- A stronger system brings another chance for widespread showers
  and storms late Monday into Tuesday, but the severe weather
  potential is still uncertain for most of eastern Kentucky with
  points west of the area more prone to seeing the stronger
  storms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 159 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2026

Showers (with a few isolated rumbles of thunder) have
lingered (developed) near/south of the Hal Rogers Pkwy/KY-80
Corridor early this afternoon. Still anticipate this activity to
sink southeastward with time, generally departing into Virginia by
6 PM. However, still could cannot rule out a few isolated showers
later in the evening, especially over the Big Sandy Basin.

UPDATE Issued at 1043 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026

Spotty weak showers continue late this morning along and ahead of
a sluggish cold front -- roughly southeast of a Paintsville to
London line. This activity should very slowly shift closer to the
Virginia/Kentucky border, finally exiting into southwest Virginia
by 4-5 PM. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out over far
southeast Kentucky until that time. Later in the evening, a few
isolated showers will be possible, primarily over the Big Sandy
Basin, with an upper level disturbance.

UPDATE Issued at 740 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids
and a tweaking of the near term PoPs per radar. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
a freshening of the SAFs, and zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 435 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026

08Z sfc analysis shows a weakening cold front pushing into eastern
Kentucky while scattered to numerous, mainly light, showers are
leading the boundary. This is keeping skies mostly cloudy and the
dewpoints up resulting in fairly uniform temperatures across the
area this night. Specifically, readings are generally in the upper
50s to lower 60s. Meanwhile, amid light and variable winds,
dewpoints are seasonably high - from the lower 60s west with those
showers to the lower and middle 50s in the far east. Some light
fog is also accompanying the showers but dense patches may yet
develop towards dawn or advect in from the west.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in pretty
good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict weakness in a local 5h ridge through
the Ohio Valley. This allows some mid level energy to slowly work
northwest to southeast through Kentucky today and tonight - even
as 5h heights start to rebuild over the area towards dawn Sunday.
These higher heights will suppress convective activity to close
out the weekend, though more energy - from the Pacific - starts to
pool in the Central Plains associated with a strong 5h wave that
eventual lifts toward the Michigan U.P. late Monday. Given the
general model agreement, the NBM was used as the starting point
for the grids. The main adjustments made to this initialization
were to incorporate details from the latest higher resolution CAMs
for PoPs and thunder chances today and into the evening -
generally backing off the NBM`s higher PoPs and more westward
extent.

Sensible weather features the current deeper moisture from the
front moving through this part of the state shifting southeast
with time leaving lesser chances to the north and west. This will
mean little relief from the very dry conditions for most of the
area - even as a secondary wave of convective potential shifts
north to south this afternoon due to the passing upper wave.
Drier air then pushes in from the north through the evening and
overnight with enough of a breeze to likely discourage widespread
fog, but more sheltered valleys could end up with some dense
patches towards dawn. Dry weather will be the rule again on
Sunday with lower afternoon RH returning to eastern Kentucky from
high pressure off to the northeast.

The changes to the NBM starting point mainly consisted of
adjusting timing and coverage details for the PoP and thunder
grids on account of the latest CAMs guidance through early Sunday
morning. In this temporarily re-moistened environment,
temperatures and dewpoints were kept mostly as populated from
the NBM - aside from some extra drying in the northeast on Sunday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026

Sunday evening into Monday will generally be quiet for Eastern
Kentucky, as the surrounding area sees rising heights from a
building ridge over the Ohio Valley. Clear skies and light winds
Sunday night will lead to ridge valley splits in temperatures.
Ridges will likely cool into the low 50s while colder valleys
decouple into the low to mid 40s.

Monday, Eastern Kentucky will sneak in a nice day ahead of the next
approaching system, with a mix of sun and clouds and highs around
the lower 80s. Through Monday, a surface low in the Central Plains
will propagate northeast into the Upper Midwest. A surface warm
front will slowly encroach into the area from the southwest. Later
Monday, now looking well into the overnight, showers and
thunderstorms will move across Kentucky ahead of an approaching cold
front. This comes as the trough becomes negatively titled. Latest
models and ensembles have been slowing the progression of the cold
front across Kentucky. With the latest model runs, the systems cold
front may progress through Eastern Kentucky sometime Tuesday. This
is important to note due to the slowed progression, storm
environment may be more suitable for severe weather Tuesday
afternoon. With MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg and 0-3km SRH in the 150-250
m2/s2 range, model trends should be watched. In lieu of the latest
model trends, showers and thunderstorms will again be possible
Tuesday.

Model spread increases beyond the frontal passage, Tuesday. However,
looking at the WPC`s cluster mean 24-hr 500 mb heights and
anomalies, 100 ensemble runs including those from the Canadian, GFS,
and European favor troughing of some degree over the Great Lakes,
and Ohio Valley. This will trend temperatures cooler towards the end
of the week, and beginning of May.

A series of shortwaves could propagate through the Great Lakes upper
level low through the end of the period, which would lead to a
continued pattern of unsettled weather and additional shower and
storm chances. Given this potential, precipitation will be possible
through the remainder of the long term period. However, details of
this forecast remain unclear at this time, and confidence in PoPs is
very low on any given day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2026

Generally VFR/high MVFR conditions are noted at TAF issuance
except for locally worse conditions in scattered showers/isolated
storms near/south of the Hal Rogers/KY-80 corridor. This activity,
associated with a weakening cold front should depart into VA by
22Z with most locations experiencing solidly VFR conditions by
then. However, a weak disturbance could spark a few more isolated
showers, especially over the Big Sandy Basin later in the evening.
Fog can be expected to form in sheltered valley locales this
evening in locations experience substantive rainfall but is not
expected to impact the TAF sites. However, this may lift in many
areas by morning depending upon a potential low stratus deck
drifting in from the northeast overnight. The fog/and or stratus
deck could bring a period of MVFR or worse conditions to affected
terminals, greater chances east of I-75. Winds will be light and
variable in general through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GEERTSON