Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

230
FXUS63 KJKL 271732
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
132 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A distinct cold front brings widespread showers and the
  possibility of a few thunderstorms today.

- Much colder air returns behind the cold front - lingering over
  the weekend, bringing the expectation of widespread sub-
  freezing temperatures by Saturday morning and for the valleys
  that night.

- Significant warming then takes place next week, with the
  potential for several consecutive days near or above 80 degrees
  for highs.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 730 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids
along with a tweaking of the near term PoPs per radar. These
minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along
with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 435 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026

08Z sfc analysis shows a well defined cold front sinking into
eastern Kentucky from the north. This is bringing a band of
showers and embedded thunderstorms south out of Ohio just behind
it. Skies are cloudy for the northern half of the area in
advance of that boundary with mostly clear conditions to the
south. In addition, sfc winds have stayed up out of the southwest
at 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts - keeping the boundary
layer well mixed, for most, and erasing some of the earlier
radiational cooling differences. Accordingly, we note temperatures
generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s - though some colder
pockets with lighter winds are seeing low 60s - in the south.
Meanwhile, dewpoints are generally in the mid to upper 50s.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in pretty
good agreement aloft for the short term portion of the forecast.
They all depict broad troughing at 5h pressing south into and
through the Ohio Valley with a stream of nearly zonal energy
running west to east at mid-levels just north of the state. This
process pushes solid height falls through eastern Kentucky today
and tonight with the closest brush by of a stronger impulse around
06Z Saturday. Look for heights to only slowly rebound over the
area in the wake of this main shortwave on Saturday while the 5h
ridging remains strong over Texas and the western Gulf - helping
to sustain northwest mid-level flow through our region. The
similar model solutions through the short term portion of the
forecast, supported the NBM as the starting point of the grids.
The main adjustments made to this initialization were to
incorporate more in the way PoP and thunder details from the
latest CAMs in the near term.

Sensible weather features a changeable weather day as showers and
limited thunderstorm chances trail the front south through the
day. An initial warm morning for most of eastern Kentucky will
turn chilly by afternoon north and by evening south on north
winds advecting a colder air mass into the state. High pressure
builds in from the northwest this evening and overnight clearing
the sky and lessening the winds - setting up a chilly night with
freezing conditions expected for most by dawn. As a result, the
Freeze Watch was upgraded to a Freeze Warning and expanded to
cover the entire JKL CWA with temperatures in the upper 20s to
lower 30s anticipated by sunrise Saturday. Plenty of sunshine will
attempt to warm the area - aided by a slackening of the chilly
north winds - but only yield high temperatures in the low to mid
50s.

The changes to the NBM starting point primarily consisted of
adjusting up the PoPs to better hit the timing of the post-frontal
showers and potential thunderstorms on their southward trek
during the day. Did also allow for some slight terrain
enhancements to the low temperatures later tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 613 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026

The long wave pattern features mainly zonal flow across the CONUS
into early next week, before amplifying through Thursday. The center
of a ridge will shift towards the southeastern CONUS, while short
wave energy will be inbound across the Pacific Northwest. By the
middle of next week, a deeper trough will be rotating in across
the West Coast, with additional lead short wave energy ejecting
out ahead of its approach. Model agreement breaks down more so
with the details on the timing and evolution this far out in the
extended portion of the forecast, so confidence remains on the
lower side.

Surface high pressure will settle across the Mid-Atlantic region
Saturday night, with low level flow veering from the east to the
south. Valleys will decouple under mostly clear skies, and given
the cool and dry start, most of the valley locations will likely
see sub-freezing temperatures once again with frost formation as
decoupling ensues. Ridges will likely stay up above freezing,
generally mid to upper 30s. Temperatures will rebound into the 60s
on Sunday, with a few places possibly reaching 70, low level flow
continues to veer to the southwest, with moisture on the
increase into next week. Some isentropic upglide will mainly keep
an influx of mid-level clouds overhead Sunday night into Monday,
although a few showers may still be possible. Overall, model
guidance has trended down with the probability of receiving
measurable rainfall during this period. Temperatures will continue
to warm into the middle of next week, with 80s returning for
highs from Tuesday through Thursday, with Wednesday being the
warmest day. A frontal boundary will also be sagging southeast
across the Ohio Valley by the middle of next week, providing the
next decent chance of rainfall. Again, details are murky this far
out, so PoP chances only peak in the 40-50% range for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026

MVFR and IFR cigs will continue into the afternoon, with a gradual
improvement from northwest to southeast between ~21z through ~03z
to VFR conditions, first as clouds scatter and then as low clouds
completely clear from the same direction overnight tonight. Clear
skies with VFR conditions are then expected through the remainder
of the period. North winds will remain gusty at times through this
afternoon, with peak gusts nearing 20 kts, but will winds will
become light this evening and persist through the remainder of the
TAF period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Saturday for
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...CMC