Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

671
FXUS63 KJKL 230915
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
515 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Localized heavy rainfall may occur with showers & thunderstorms
  through the evening.

- Most places can expect rain each day through most of the next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 515 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026

08Z sfc analysis shows a distinct sfc low passing the area to the
northwest with a cold front along the western edge of the state
and a warm front hung up over the eastern portion of the JKL CWA.
This close passage has allowed for bit of a lull in the more
sustained shower activity this night but pockets of convection
continue to lift northeast through northwestern parts of the
area. The let up in the rain and higher cloud bases are leading to
some patchy fog through eastern Kentucky - especially where there
have been some clearing showing up. The moist air mass still in
place makes for very high humidity and as a result dewpoints are
close to temperatures. They both basically range from the upper
50s northwest to near 70 degrees along the Tennessee border.
Meanwhile, winds continue from the southeast at 5 to 10 mph for
most places - outside of the calmer sheltered valleys.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in great
agreement aloft, through the short term portion of the forecast.
They all depict Kentucky caught between persistent 5h ridging to
the southeast and fairly strong troughing to the northwest. This
will sustain southwest mid level flow through the period and
beyond. Within this wind stream, one batch of energy is working
past the area to the north this morning - not fully clearing out
until evening. The turbulence in this stream settles for a time
into Sunday, though it does speed up in response to the approach
of a node of the 5h Canadian trough to close out the weekend
allowing slight height falls to settle over the JKL CWA. Given the
still good symmetry among the models, the NBM was used as the
starting point for the short term grids with little changes
needed. The main adjustments made to this initialization were to
include additional higher resolution timing and placement details
for the PoPs through Sunday from the latest CAMs guidance.

Sensible weather features showers renewing through the morning in
response to the passing low pressure center to the north of the
area. This process also drags a cold front closer to this part of
the state through the day helping to focus the convection and
likely yielding thunderstorms by afternoon. The CAMs suggest that
these have the potential to become rather robust as they train
northeasterly through the northwest parts of the area. Despite the
scattered nature of these convective elements there is a
threat for them to move repeatedly over the same locations -
passing over many places that have seen soaking rains during the
past few days. For this reason, the Flash Flood Watch was extended
until deep in the evening when the front is progged to finally
push properly into eastern Kentucky shifting deeper moisture and
any flooding threat temporarily to the east of the state. With
this, another lull in the convection should settle in through the
night into Sunday morning before the next sfc wave approaches
from the southwest - supported by the southern extension of the
main trough aloft. This will allow for another surge of moisture
and convection to move into the region with showers and a few
thunderstorms expected to close out the weekend.

The changes to the NBM starting point mainly consisted of
including PoP and thunder details from the latest CAMs guidance
through Sunday. As for temperatures and dewpoints, they were not
adjusted much given the moist air mass - but did shave the highs
back toward modeled hourly temps each afternoon and likewise
brought the lows up a tad at night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 400 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026

The long term period opens with broad upper level ridging over the
Atlantic coast, with a well defined upper level low over Ontario;
this pattern leaves eastern Kentucky near the upper level trough
axis. As stronger flow associated with this troughing departs to our
northeast, our attention will shift to a deep shortwave over Texas.
As this wave pushes east, it is expected to amplify and eventually
become a closed mid level low, inducing height falls over eastern
Kentucky on Monday. At the surface, a remnant surface boundary
will be located over the Commonwealth, providing additional
forcing for organized showers and thunderstorms. Thus, additional
rounds of precipitation will be possible to open the week, and
with an anomalously moist environment in place, locally heavy
rainfall will again become a concern, and isolated flooding may be
possible.

With stubborn upper level ridging over the Atlantic, eastern
Kentucky  will continue to feel the influence of central CONUS
troughing through at least midweek. With no clear path of
progression for the stalled boundary, a wet pattern looks to
continue, and rain will be likely through at least Wednesday. The
exact timing details of these rounds of showers and storms is
presently unclear, owing to some disagreement in the placement and
amplitude of impulses embedded within the broader flow; however,
there is a broad consensus that the environment will continue to be
moist, bolstered by moisture advection via continued southerly flow.
With such an active pattern in place, isolated flooding will again
be a concern for areas that continue to receive multiple rounds of
heavy rain. LREF guidance continues to indicate that QPF will be
notable across the forecast area; even without accounting for
convective effects, 25th percentile total QPF through Wednesday
night sits between 2 and 2.25 inches, with higher end solutions
indicating the potential for 3+ inches of rainfall through midweek,
although NBM QPF remains lower at this time.

Moving into the latter half of the week, guidance diverges...

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026

At issuance time, conditions were mostly VFR with MVFR holding
on at KSYM. Convection is in a lull, at present, but expectations
are that it will expand into dawn as the sfc low moves nearly
overhead. Reductions to MVFR or IFR conditions can be
anticipated in any of these renewed showers, along with some
roving patches of fog, into dawn. Stronger pockets of convection
should return, at times, during the late morning and afternoon
hours. Within this convection, reductions to MVFR or IFR are
expected. Winds will generally be light through the period, with
brief higher gusts in any thunderstorms. There is a potential for
some LLWS in the eastern sites with winds just off the sfc from
the south to southeast at up to 40 kts during the first few hours
of the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for KYZ044-050>052-104.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...JP/GREIF