Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

318
FXUS63 KJKL 260515
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1215 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild temperatures will persist, for the most part, through the
  next week.

- The greatest probabilities of precipitation (mainly rain) over
  the next week are tonight into Thursday and from Sunday night
  into Tuesday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026

The light rain has expanded northward to near the Mountain
Parkway late this evening. The northern edge of the precipitation
shield can be expected to remain quasi-stationary through 3 AM. No
significant changes were made to the forecast; overnight hourly
temperatures were brought into line with the latest observations.

UPDATE Issued at 720 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026

Light rain is developing across the Lake Cumberland region this
evening as upper level divergence increases in the favorable right
entrance region of a 300 hPa jet streak. Expect rain to develop
across most locations south of the Mountain Parkway through the
remainder of the evening. Hourly forecast has been updated to
include the latest hi-res model trends for the next 24 hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 441 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026

A cold front is currently moving slowly southeast through KY, but
there`s presently nothing more than clouds associated with it.
Aloft, a weak shortwave trough is in the vicinity of SD/NE heading
ESE. A couple of jet streaks aloft will also loosely affect our
area with a right entrance region (first) and a left exit region
(second) tonight into Thursday. The combined features aloft are
expected to support a wave of low pressure traveling eastward along
the front as it drops to our south overnight and Thursday
morning. Rain should occur over our southern counties as a result
of these features. There is still some question as to how much
precip occurs further north. Should it make it all the way to our
far northern counties, it could be a mix of rain and snow.

On Thursday the low pressure system will depart to the east and
the front will move to our south, while the upper level support
for precip also wanes. Any remaining precip will end during the
day. Clouds will probably also be on the decrease, but there is
less certainty as to how quickly this happens. As surface ridging
builds in Thursday night, most if not all of the clouds should
finally clear out.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026

The period begins with surface high pressure building into the
region in the wake of Thursdays cold front. As this high settles
over the area for Friday, dry conditions and a warming trend will
develop and persist through the weekend. Temperatures are progged to
peak on Saturday, with highs ranging from the low to upper 60s.
However, upper-level divergence ahead of an approaching entrance
region of a jet streak will support surface cyclogenesis in the Mid-
Mississippi Valley by Saturday afternoon. This low will track
eastward, sustained by favorable jet dynamics. By Saturday night,
PoP will increase to 15 to 20 percent for the overnight period,
primarily for areas along and north of a line from Jackson to Pike
Counties. The highest PoP chances will remain in Ohio and Indiana,
in closer proximity to the stronger forcing. By Sunday afternoon,
this initial wave is expected to shift eastward, leading to a brief
decrease in PoP.

This lull in activity will be short-lived. The primary upper-level
trough will promote the development of a second wave over western
Kansas, which is progged to track rapidly toward the Commonwealth.
Increasing PoP chances are forecast beginning Sunday evening and
continuing through the remainder of the period. Consistent with
previous forecast packages, model guidance continues to show a north-
south wobble with this system; these latitudinal shifts remain
critical in determining the position of the rain-snow line. The
forecast area stays positioned near the critical thermal threshold
where precipitation type is highly sensitive. Consequently, a wintry
mix appears likely with the arrival of this system Sunday night.
Deterministic forecast soundings for areas north of the Mountain
Parkway, where the best chances for a wintry mix exist, show a
pronounced warm nose. This should result in melting and predominant
rainfall at the onset. However, as surface temperatures fall to
freezing or below during the early overnight hours, a transition to
a rain-snow mix is anticipated. By Monday morning, temperatures are
forecast to rise above freezing, transitioning all wintry
precipitation back to rain. Rainfall is expected to continue through
the end of the period, though model confidence degrades
substantially after 00Z Tuesday as deterministic solutions begin to
diverge. While the GFS dries the region out behind the departing
system on Tuesday, the ECMWF maintains PoP chances through the end
of the period. Given this uncertainty, the NBM remains the preferred
solution, keeping PoP in the forecast through the end of the period.

The period will be highlighted by an initial surface high bringing
dry and mild conditions through Saturday. A transition to a more
active pattern occurs Saturday night as a series of disturbances
impact the region. While temperatures start above average,
fluctuations in synoptic and mesoscale flow will lead to high
variability through the early part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026

At 06Z TAF issuance, conditions ranged from VFR north of the Hal
Rogers Parkway/KY-80 Corridor to generally MVFR/IFR with rain and
low ceilings to the south. The rain and lower ceilings should
gradually spread northward toward the Mountain Parkway through
daybreak. Any rainfall should be more spotty north of the
Mountain Parkway with mainly VFR conditions through 12Z Thursday.
A few hours of MVFR/IFR will then be possible on Thursday
morning/midday even in the north before rain tapers NW-SE and
subsequent gradual improvements in ceilings follow during the
afternoon/ evening.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON