Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

025
FXUS63 KJKL 301011
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
611 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Passing disturbances will result in increasing cloud cover and
  low chances for light showers and sprinkles, at times, today and
  again Tuesday afternoon, while the humidity returns.

- Expect several consecutive warmer days with highs in the 70s to
  lower 80s, along with mild overnight lows in the 40s to lower
  60s.

- A more active weather pattern will be in place for the second
  half of the week, with daily chances of showers and some
  thunderstorms at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 440 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026

08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure now off to the southeast of
Kentucky. This is allowing southerly winds to bring in more
moisture to our parched area early this morning. Look for some
lower ceilings to develop and from this some sprinkles or light
showers. The thickening and lowering clouds have also halted the
temperature drop through the area with better mixing making for
more uniform readings early this morning. As such, temperatures
currently range from some isolated low 40s in the eastern
sheltered spots to near 60 on ridges and in the more open terrain.
Meanwhile, amid those south to southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph -
with some higher gusts to the northwest, dewpoints have improved
to the upper 30s in the east and mid to upper 40s in the west.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, continue to be
in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict Kentucky between broad troughing
centered north of the States and ridging located over much of the
Gulf - centered near Key West. This is supporting near zonal flow
to start the period over the state with just some passing weak
impulses noted. Eventually, the mid level pattern becomes more
southwesterly over our area on Tuesday with a couple of small but
more distinct shortwaves rolling past north of the Ohio River.
The well aligned model solutions through the short term portion of
the forecast meant that the NBM was a reasonable starting point
for the grids. The main adjustments made to this initialization
were to incorporate more in the way of details from the latest
higher resolution CAMs for PoPs and thunder chances into those
grids through Tuesday afternoon.

Sensible weather features warmth continuing to build over eastern
Kentucky today even as we stay mostly cloudy and a few showers
sprout into early afternoon - taking advantage of the increasing
moisture in the lower levels. We will then see a mild night due
to those clouds lingering and the presence of southwesterly winds
keeping the air well mixed among the terrain. Tuesday looks just
a tad warmer - highs in the low 80s most places - even as the
clouds continue to be abundant and scattered showers linger with a
small threat of a thunderstorm or two in the afternoon.

The changes to the NBM starting point primarily consisted of
including more details in the PoPs grids on account of the latest
CAMs guidance today through Tuesday afternoon. In this
increasingly moist environment temperatures and dewpoints were
mostly kept from the NBM.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 611 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026

There is good model agreement regarding more amplified flow to
reign over the CONUS through the majority of the week. A sharper
ridge will remain positioned over the western Atlantic through the
first half of the weekend. At the same time, troughing takes hold
generally west of the Mississippi River, as bouts of inbound
eastern Pacific energy move onshore. This trough will work east
into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys by Sunday, with flow dampening
by that time. The models have come into better agreement with
some of the smaller scale features through the end of the work
week, with timing differences increasing this weekend.

Clouds and rain chances will be on the rise for the second half
of Tuesday night out ahead of an approaching cold front. Still,
expect valleys to decouple early on, with mid to upper 50s
expected for lows, while ridges stay up in the lower to middle
60s. Model guidance has generally trended leaner on the PoPs
for this period, and given the weakness of the expected forcing,
have left out the mention of thunder. Better rain chances will
move in Wednesday, as the cold front draws closer. Still, given
the trend of less forcing, did undercut the blended guidance for
the PoPs, and suspect that PoPs could come in even lower with time.

Eastern Kentucky will then remain in the warm sector from Thursday
through Saturday, with daily chances of PoPs continuing, although
these have come down more markedly since yesterday, with the
better forcing remaining more focused to our northwest. As the
final bout of short wave energy moves through the Ohio and
Tennessee valleys on Sunday, a more decisive cold front will move
through the region. Still, given the timing differences this far
out, PoPs only peak in the good chance range (around 50%).

Confidence remains high that temperatures will average between 15
and 20 degrees above normal through Saturday, with highs in the
70s and 80s, and lows in the 50s and 60s. Highs will retreat to
the 60s on Sunday with the frontal passage; however, there
remains considerable spread in the temperatures by that time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026

VFR conditions are holding at 06Z TAF issuance with passing high-
level clouds. However, some lower CIGs to MVFR, sprinkles, and
light showers will begin to develop pre-dawn. Further reductions
of low clouds to borderline VFR/MVFR conditions are possible with
SHRA activity beginning as early as 09Z, but more likely later in
the morning until evening.

While light southerly winds are noted through the area early this
morning, LLWS from the southwest at up to 45 kts will be possible
for most TAF sites into sunrise. As surface heating increases
later today, especially after 15Z, sustained southwesterly winds
of 9 to 12 kts with gusts to ~20 kts are expected - diminishing
after sunset but with a potential for renewed LLWS from the
southwest at up to 40 kts.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...CMC/GREIF