Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

863
FXUS63 KJKL 230643
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
243 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers will continue to gradually diminish through this morning
  over eastern and southeastern Kentucky.

- Lower humidity and dry weather arrive by late today and
  continue through Wednesday.

- Unsettled weather then returns to end the week and into the
  weekend, with rounds of showers and storms possibly producing
  heavy rain and a flood threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 241 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026

A cold front situated along the Appalachian Mountains will continue
to slowly translate eastwards to the coast over the course of the
day, reaching the coastline this evening. The upper trough continues
to lag the front, situated to our west as of 07z this morning but
will cross eastern Kentucky the remainder of this morning. Until the
upper PV anomaly moves entirely east of the area, which will not
happen until late this afternoon, low-level cold advection with
instability will continue to produce light rain or drizzle and low
clouds, which will become increasingly confined/banked against the
high terrain near and along the Virginia border. With the continued
cold advection and lingering cloud cover, highs will be below normal
in the mid to upper 70s.

West-northwesterly flow continues aloft into tonight with clearing
skies, with surface high pressure remaining centered over central
Kentucky such that northerly near-surface flow will continue into
the overnight before diminishing by dawn Wednesday. Would thus
expect cool conditions with widespread valley fog developing
overnight, dissipating in the hours shortly after dawn. Lows tonight
are expected to be about 10 degrees below normal in the lower to
mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026

The period begins with broad troughing from parts of the Central to
eastern Conus and an upper level ridge centered near the
TX/NM/Mexico border area and extending across the Four Corners to
parts of the Great Basin and interior Wednesday northwest. Also
at that point, an upper level low is progged to be centered near
the Ontario/ Manitoba/ MN border area with shortwave rotating
around this upper low near the Great Lakes with another shortwave
trough extending to the Central Plains. Further upstream an upper
low is expected to be in the Gulf of Alaska vicinity with an upper
trough south southeast to just west of the Pacific northwest.
Shortwaves moving through this trough should be working around the
ridging extending into the western Conus and across sections of
the Pacific northwest and western Canada. At the surface, high
pressure is expected to be centered over southern OH/the OH Valley
region to begin the period with a sfc low in the upper MS Valley
nearing the western Great Lakes with its frontal zone trailing
into parts of the Central Plains to sections of the Rockies. As
the period begins, a dry airmass for this time of year is expected
to be in place, in the 0.5 to 0.8 inch range or roughly the 2nd
to 9th percentile per the 12Z HREF mean.

Wednesday through Thursday night, the initial broad troughing pattern
evolves to more of a westerly/zonal flow pattern east of the crest
of the Rockies across the central Conus to the mid Atlantic sates
with broad upper level ridging becoming centered in the Southern
Plains vicinity, with another upper level ridge centered between the
Bahamas and Bermuda. Further north, the upper low should weaken to
an open wave as it moves across the northern Great Lakes and
sections of Ontario into Quebec and potentially becoming an open
wave. Meanwhile, a couple of weather shortwave troughs may cross the
area Wed to Thu before a shortwave that initially is moving around
the ridging extending across the western Conus moves into the
northern and central Plains/Central Conus Wed and Wed night and then
into the mid MS Valley/Lower OH Valley by late Thu night. Models
begin to vary at that point in timing and the general consensus is
for another shortwave further upstream in the Central Conus at that
time. At the surface, high pressure will shift east of the area for
Wed and Wed night with a developing warm front crossing the area Wed
night into early Thursday as the sfc low gradually moves across the
Great Lakes and and eventually into Ontario. The trailing cold front
should advance to the eastern Great Lakes to lower OH and mid MS
Valley to portions of the Plains by late Thu night. Behind the warm
front, moisture will gradually increase with PW per the 00Z LREF mean
reaching the 70th to 75th percentile by around dawn on Friday or the
1.4 to 1.6 inch range. During that time, sfc dewpoints should
generally reach the mid to upper 60s by Thursday night.

Following below normal temperatures on Wed and a moderate magnitude
ridge/valley split for Wed night , temperatures begin to moderate
back to near normals for Thu. As moisture increases and the
shortwave and cold front begin to near late Thu into Thu night, the
threat for showers and thunderstorms may return, though chances
should peak to begin the weekend.

Friday to Saturday night, a series of shortwaves crossing the OH
Valley and portions of the Appalachians is the general consensus of
guidance for Friday into early Saturday. At the same time, the upper
level ridge initially extending across portions of the Rockies will
build into the Plains/Central Conus late Fri into Saturday
downstream of an upper low that reaches the Northwest Conus and an
upper trough that moves into the western Conus. The axis of the
upper level ridge should near the MS Valley and possibly western
Great Lakes by late Saturday night. Northwest flow aloft should
remain after the shortwaves pass to the east. At the same time, the
frontal zone should become stalled out over the OH Valley/eastern KY
area to end the week and continue into the weekend. PW should climb
even more during that time, though without a strong connection or
feed from the Gulf, 00Z LREF PW values peaking roughly in the 85th
to 95th percentile range to end the week of the 1.5 to 1.75 inch
range. This pattern appears favorable for rounds of storms from time
to time or MCS type activity. Some stronger convection could occur
if sufficient instability were be build Friday or Saturday, though the
potential repeated rounds of showers and storms may result in
locally heavy rain and an isolated flood threat at some point,
possibly as early as Friday or Friday night. WPC has included
eastern KY and points west to near the Ozarks in a marginal
Excessive Rainfall Outlook for Day 5.

Sunday to Monday, a period of height rises with the upper level
ridge axis approaching or nearing eastern KY is the general
consensus of guidance to begin next week. Further west, the axis of
the upper level trough moves gradually east over sections of the
northern Rockies to southwest Conus. A preceding sfc low should
travel across western sections of Canada generally north of the
US/Canadian border with the trailing cold front moving into sections
of the Central Conus and the boundary initially stalled over the OH
Valley vicinity lifting northeast as a warm front late in the
period. Pending the positioning of the upper level ridge axis and
considering the gradual height rises, capping should lead to a min
in convective coverage or potentially keep the region entirely
capped by Monday. Warming temperatures are also possible and if the
ridge is centered over the area on Monday temperatures may reach
around 90 or the low 90s in many areas. A scenario more like the
recent ECMWF runs would be slower moving the front northeast as warm
front with potentially some convection on Monday and temperatures
lower than the current forecast for Max T on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026

Precipitation continues to taper off gradually from northwest to
southeast through the remainder of the overnight, but IFR or MVFR
conditions will probably linger before dry air starts to work in
from the northwest, with VFR conditions returning gradually from
northwest to southeast. Light and variable or calm winds have
begun to increase to ~ 5 kts from the north to northwest behind
the passing cold front, and these winds will continue through the
daytime hours Tuesday before light and variable or calm winds
return this evening.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...CMC