Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

243
FXUS63 KJKL 202355 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
755 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry weather is expected through the day Sunday.

- Showers and thunderstorms will make a return Sunday night and
  Monday, possibly bringing heavy rainfall along with strong wind
  gust.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 730 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure mostly in control of the
weather over eastern Kentucky. There is a weak cold front
settling south into the area with some isolated to scattered
convection. Some mid and high clouds are affecting the area -
associated with the front. Currently, temperatures are running in
the mid 80s to low 80s. Meanwhile, amid light west winds,
dewpoints are generally in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Have updated
the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the
T/Td/Sky grids along with a tweaking of the PoPs and thunder
chances through the rest of the night in the north. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
a freshening of the zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 328 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026

A weak cold front is nearing the Ohio River from the northwest
this afternoon. An enhanced cu field has developed along and
ahead of the front, but bases are fairly high at 5-6K feet due to
a lack of significant moisture return. Dew points just ahead of
the front are generally in the lower to mid 60s, and only in the
upper 50s and lower 60s over the JKl forecast area. Higher dew
points in the 70s are in the Gulf Coast states on the other side
of a warm front. Despite the scant moisture, models are developing
some sparse convective precip along/ahead of the front early this
evening. Have included a slight chance of thunderstorms for the
northern edge of the forecast area, but if anything occurs, it
should dry up during the night.

This frontal boundary is forecast to stall over KY on Sunday as it
becomes strung out parallel to the zonal upper flow. Models
now suggest the boundary will remain dry on Sunday and then fade
as it returns north and is overtaken by the aforementioned more
southern boundary heading northward as a warm front on Sunday
night. This will bring more moist air northward. Advection of this
new air mass will increase as the low level pressure gradient
tightens with low pressure heading eastward from the plains across
the Midwest. Models are bringing MCS activity eastward across the
Midwest in association with this on Sunday into Sunday night. It
may make it into the JKl forecast area on Sunday night, but there
is not good agreement on the evolution of the MCSs, which keeps
our local forecast broadbrushed and with rather modest
confidence.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026

Looking at the 500-mb heights across CONUS, a ridge of high
pressure can be seen over the Eastern Pacific and off the British
Columbia coastline. Further downstream, multiple shortwaves near
Southern Alberta, and Eastern Ontario continue their propagation
east. Further south, a subtropical high pressure resides over
Northern Mexico, south of the Four Corners, while an area of low
pressure ejects out of the Central Plains into the Middle
Mississippi Valley Sunday night into Monday.

Monday, that system`s cold front will look to work through
Kentucky during the day. Widespread showers and scattered to
numerous thunderstorms are expected through the better part of
Monday. With the passage of the cold front, PWAT values are
modeled around 1.75 to 2.0 inches. Looking at the 00Z run of the
ECMWF mean precipitable water against the climatological
percentile, the forecasted PWAT falls within the 97th to 98th
percentile, making it quiet abnormal for this time of year. With
the most recent heavy rainfall and area soils holding more water,
along with some creeks and streams with elevated flows, any
additional rainfall may cause a recurrence of high water. The WPC
has most of Eastern Kentucky in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for
excessive rainfall. In addition to the flood outlook for Monday,
sufficient shear around 30 kts and instability (MUCAPE around 1200
J/kg), is enough to warrant a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) from
the SPC for severe weather.

As the cold front pushes southeast of the forecast area Monday
evening, rain chances diminish. Some showers may linger across
southeastern portions of the forecast area into Tuesday. In general
the overall pattern remains progressive, with isolated shower and
storm chances Tuesday and Wednesday. The next shortwave looks to
move across the Upper Great Lakes Thursday. A cold front attributed
with this system may approach the area sometime Thursday afternoon
through Friday. Models are not in as much agreement with timing or
pattern evolution, but multiple systems could lead to renewed shower
and thunderstorm chances through Saturday.

Temperatures generally remain in the low to mid 80s with lows in the
upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026

There is a still a very small chance of a few showers or
thunderstorms generally north of KSYM this evening. Should they
occur, isolated IFR conditions would be possible. Otherwise,
prevailing VFR conditions hold until late tonight when valley fog
is anticipated into early Sunday morning - potentially bringing
localized IFR or worse conditions. Once this clears, VFR
conditions return for the remainder of the period. At the same
time winds will be light and variable through the day, Sunday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...HAL/GREIF