Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

029
FXUS63 KJKL 262009
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
409 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a small chance for a strong to severe thunderstorm
  through this evening.

- Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat with any storms
  through this evening, though a stray, brief tornado will also
  be possible along with times of heavy rain.

- Humid and often wet weather will continue through mid week.

- Rain should become less prevalent late in the week as drier air
  arrives from the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 355 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026

As of mid afternoon, an upper level ridge was centered between
Bermuda and the Southeast coast while an upper low/disturbance
extended from the Ozarks to Lower OH Valley vicinity. Rather deep
southerly flow from the Gulf into the OH Valley and Southern
Appalachians was occurring. Well to the norht, an upper low was
centered in Quebec with a shortwave trough dropping across western
sections of Ontario. Further west, meanwhile, an upper level
trough was over much of the western Conus to Four Corners region
to portions of the Southern Plains. At the surface, a slow moving
boundary extended from the southern Delmarva vicinity to the OH
Valley and across northern portions of the CWA. Locally PW was
analyzed in the 1.75 to 1.9 inch range or roughly the 95th to 99th
percentile while sfc dewpoints were in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Steadier showers have shifted north of the area while heating of
the moist airmass has resulted in MLCAPE near 250 J/kg north to
around 1000 J/kg near Lake Cumberland while MUCAPE is roughly in
the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Mid level lapse rates are currently
rather meager with low level lapse rates 6.5 to 7C/km in the
southern portions of the area.

Through this evening, limited instability, MLCAPE of 500 to 1000
J/kg is anticipated through early evening with low level lapse
rates averaging about 6.5C/km. Effective bulk shear per SPC
mesoanalysis is anticipated in the 30 to 40 KT range effective and
0-1 and 0-3km SRH as high as 100 to 150 m2/s2. The marginal
instability combined with the shear may be sufficient for a
stronger storm or two with marginal supercell characteristics.
The last couple of HRRR runs have a 2-5km UH swath that runs from
near Madison County east into the CWA to the north of JKL. A
couple of damaging wind gusts are possible and an isolated
tornado cannot be completely ruled out. Following a potential
uptick in coverage of convection this evening following some
heating, a relative lull in activity may occur overnight before
potentially an increase toward dawn as a disturbance approaches
per guidance. The anticipated moist airmass and associated cloud
cover and precipitation chances will limit diurnal ranges from
today to tonight once again as the quasi stationary boundary
likely shifts a bit to the north overnight.

Wednesday and Wednesday night, the shortwave trough initially
rotating across sections of western Ontario will move into Quebec
and the Great Lakes eventually the Northeast to mid Atlantic
states through the end of the period. Meanwhile, a weaker
shortwave is expected to track across the Lower OH Valley region
on Wednesday. At the same time, the quasi stationary boundary
should settle back into eastern KY Wednesday night while the
boundary preceding the cold front sags toward the OH Valley. A
rather moist airmass will remain in place across the region with
PW at least in the 80th to 90th percentile or higher through
Wednesday. This should result in additional rounds of convection
though these chances should diminish in the north by late
Wednesday evening or Wednesday night. WPC has a slight risk of
excessive ERO across the north near the expected location of the
lingering boundary. The northern sections of the area have been
wettest over the past 3 or 4 days and would be most primed for
high water or flash flood issues. In coordination with surrounding
offices, have opted to go with a Flash Flood Watch near and north
of I-64 for Wednesday. A stronger storm is also possible near the
boundary as per SPC Day 2 convective outlook during the afternoon
to early evening pending heating/instability.

With the clouds and rather moist airmass in place, highs should
average near normal for Wednesday with once again a limited
diurnal range into Wednesday night.







.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026

In the days prior to Thursday, an area of low pressure over the
Ozarks will feature a stationary boundary oriented across Kentucky,
providing shower and storms chances to the area. With strong high
pressure off the Atlantic coastline this area of low pressure
struggles to progress eastward, eventually doing so Thursday.

The stationary boundary moves south through the area as a cold front
early Thursday. Winds become northerly for the remainder of the
extended forecast period. In addition to the post-frontal wind shift,
drier air and lower PWATs return to the area. An upper level
trough digs southeast from Eastern Canada through New England
Friday. Models continue to hint at a weak wave embedded within the
upper level flow aloft, upstream of the closed low moving across
the New England area. This may lead to isolated showers or
thunderstorm chances south of the Hal Rogers/KY-80 corridor,
Friday afternoon.

Saturday, an area of low pressure stalls south of the area in the
Tennessee region, a dry cold front is expected to dig south out of
the Ohio Valley from the closed low departing the New England area.
Eastern Kentucky may see some  showers and thunderstorms , mainly
south of I-64, most concentrated along the KY-TN stateline. With
high pressure building into the Ohio Valley Sunday and beyond,
rain and thunderstorm chances will slowly diminish each day with
isolated to scattered chances along the KY-TN stateline Sunday
afternoon.

Temperatures remain mild through next Tuesday, with highs and lows
near normal overall (mid to upper 70s for highs, upper 50s for
lows). Diminishing rain chances transition to a cooler and drier
regime towards the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026

At issuance time, a mixture and of MVFR and IFR was reported at
most locations while where there were breaks in the clouds some
VFR was reported. Steadier showers were occurring near and north
of I-64 while more isolated activity was further south. Behind
the steadier rain some partial clearing or areas of clearing
should shift north with ceilings trending toward VFR in many
areas. However, convection should redevelop this afternoon, with
isolated to scattered activity for most locations during the
first 6 hours of the period. Within any heavier showers and any
storms, MVFR or lower reductions are anticipated along with wind
gusts potentially exceeding 30KT. Otherwise, with the loss of
daytime heating, conditions from 00Z onward, VFR should prevail
for much of the night, although guidance has MVFR increasing in
coverage between 09Z and 14Z. In addition to lower clouds, some
stratus build down fog may also develop in the more northern
locations nearer to a quasi stationary boundary. A general trend
toward prevailing VFR should occur late in the period. This will
also be accompanied by increasing chances for convection which
could result in time of lower ceilings and visibility late. Winds
will remain light and variable through the period outside of any
stronger showers or storms.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night
for KYZ044-050>052.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JP