Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

865
FXUS63 KJKL 301129
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
629 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow showers and flurries will end this morning, followed by
  clearing skies for this afternoon.

- Some light snow accumulations are possible Wednesday night into
  Thursday with a weak and progressive system brushing the area
  from the north and northeast.

- Though there is considerable uncertainty at this time,
  especially with regards to temperatures, we are monitoring a
  southern stream system which has some potential to bring a cold
  rain and perhaps some wintry precipitation to parts of the area
  Friday night into early Saturday.

- Wintery temperatures will persist through the end of 2025 and
  into the beginning of 2026.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2025

Increased the Sky grids for the morning hours given current
satellite trends. Also raised hourly temperatures given extensive
low clouds for the next several hours as opportunities for
clearing allowing for temperatures to drop a few more degrees
appear to be quite low. Otherwise, the forecast is on track. Light
snow and flurries will rapidly diminish from northwest to
southeast between 12z and 15z this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2025

Fast northwesterly flow aloft persists through the short-term amidst
strong ridging over the western CONUS and a deep trough over
southeastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS.

The upper disturbance responsible for enhancing the cold advection
snow showers across eastern Kentucky overnight departs to the east
by mid-morning, with light snow ending followed quickly by clearing
skies in the afternoon. Despite clear skies in the afternoon,
temperatures will only rise into the 30 to 35 degree range due to
the lack of any appreciable advection, with light westerly winds
continuing. Low clouds increase tonight from the north as a mostly
dry disturbance brushes by the area quickly. Good optimal
radiational cooling in the few hours after sunset and before
clouds increase should allow for temperatures to fall well down
into the teens to lower 20s, coldest in the more protected
sheltered valleys. A few flurries or light snow showers will be
possible with the clouds tonight, especially toward northeastern
Kentucky, but nothing significant with regards to impacts as
moisture will be extremely limited.

Weak warm advection will develop late tonight into Wednesday, and
this allow for highs to rise several degrees into the upper 30s
north to lower 40s south Wednesday afternoon. Clouds will
increase by early Wednesday evening from the northwest ahead of
the next disturbance in northwesterly flow aloft.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 359 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2025

The extended is going to be a bit busy - though thankfully with
no major impacts. Kentucky and much of the Ohio Valley will be in
a strong troughing pattern through much of the extended, with deep
NW flow. This flow will weaken a bit by the weekend, but will
remain in place. Multiple shortwaves and surface low pressure
systems will track along this flow, impacting the Ohio Valley. In
fact, from here on out we will refer to them in order...

System #1 - Starting Wednesday night as a low pressure system forms
across the eastern Ohio Valley, moving into New England by Thursday
morning. We will be on the southern edge of this system.
Precipitation will mainly affect the northeast CWA as it moves
eastward Wednesday night, along with a surface cold front, exiting
Thursday morning. The most notable feature of this system will be
the NW flow on the backside, which, along with strong NW flow aloft,
will advect in cooler temperatures (hence the cold front).
Temperatures by daybreak will be below freezing, which could cause
any lingering precip in the northeast CWA to change over to snow.
Right now there does look to be some light accumulations as a result
in this location, but should be under an inch.

A small area of high pressure will move in for Thursday afternoon,
and persist into Friday.

System #2 - Quite a bit uncertainly lies with this late
Friday/Saturday system. Latest model runs show a surface low
pressure system moving across the Lower Mississippi Valley Friday
night in response to an upper level shortwave developing on the
south side of the large scale troughing. There is good agreement
that the system will continue to move eastward throughout the day
Saturday. However, neither the GFS of NAM show the associated precip
with this system moving far enough north to impact the JKL CWA.
Meanwhile, the NBM is much farther north with the system, bringing
chance pops to nearly all of the CWA late Friday through Friday
night, before exiting Saturday morning. WPC is also analyzing a
stationary front across southeast KY and TN Friday, which suggests
precipitation could impact the state. Due to being on the northern
fringe of this southerly system, we could see decent temperature
gradients between the southern CWA, where NBM has
precipitation/cloud cover/WAA, and the northern CWA (north of the
frontal boundary). If precipitation is able to push far enough
north, models are pointing at the potential for some light freezing
rain across the northern fringe of the precipitation (also the
northern fringe of our CWA). Again, don`t have high confidence in
this event, and still concerned that all of the precipitation is
overdone/too far north. Will be interested to see if next couple of
runs of the NBM become more in line with the more southerly global
models, and even the CAMs as they start to catch the system at the
end of their runs.

Another round of high pressure will move in for Saturday afternoon
(or earlier depending on the track of the above-mentioned system),
and will likely persist through the day Sunday. NBM is trying to
bring some passing bkn/ovc clouds through the area during this time,
though not exactly sure the reasoning. But otherwise it should be
dry.

System #3 - Monday into Monday night. If the Friday night/Saturday
system was uncertain, this one is not in any agreement whatsoever.
The one thing models do agree on is a shortwave and surface low
pressure system developing across the Upper Great Lakes - the ECMWF
being much stronger than the GFS - on Monday morning. A swath of
precipitation around this system will also shift ESE. The GFS, being
much weaker, shows only a small area of precipitation across the
Great Lakes region, while the stronger ECWMF expands the
precipitation over a much larger swatch. Neither model brings the
precipitation anywhere close to the Commonwealth. Meanwhile, again,
the NBM is showing slight to chance pops making their way southward
during this time period across a good portion of the CWA. Not sure
if it`s feeding off a different model, or if the models have shifted
that much since their last run. But will be interested to see if
this too will trend drier in the NBM. It is Day 7, so still a lot of
time for changes.

Throughout all of this, despite strong NW flow, expect daytime
temperatures to remain around or just above normal for the upcoming
week. The warmest day will be Friday, as WAA is one certainty from
the southerly system, raising temps into the mid 40s (north) to mid
50s (south). This will carry over into Friday night in the southern
CWA and Saturday as well. Otherwise, most nights should see
temperatures in the 20s and low 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 629 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2025

MVFR cloud deck producing -SN will erode between 15z and 18z, with
VFR conditions expected thereafter. Look for winds generally from
the west at 5 to 10 kts. After a period of clearing this
afternoon, low clouds increase from the northwest after 03z
tonight as a system brushes the area, though cigs are expected to
remain VFR.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...CMC