Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

256
FXUS63 KJKL 090558
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
158 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms persist across the
  entire area throughout the week.

- The greatest rain chances are through Wednesday and again
  Friday. The potential for multiple rounds of locally heavy
  rainfall poses a risk for isolated flooding in this time frame.

- Warm and rather humid conditions are expected.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 158 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026

Isolated mainly light showers continue across eastern Kentucky
early this morning and are slowly propagating east with time. This
activity should be little more than a nuisance for affected areas.
Upstream, a more substantial area of showers and thunderstorms is
noted west of a Louisville to Nashville line at 550z and CAMs
show the remnants of this activity lifting ENE and eventually
reaching locations near and west of the Escarpment (Mount
Sterling, Somerset, Monticello, etc.) toward daybreak (~10-11z).
If the activity remains semi-organized, will need to monitor heavy
rain potential.

UPDATE Issued at 1053 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026

Continued to make adjustments to PoPs through the late morning
Tuesday based on latest 00z CAMS and observed trends. Removed any
mention of thunder from the grids for the remainder of tonight.
Otherwise, a quick refresh of hourly T/Td grids was made utilizing
the latest hourly observations as the initialization of the
hourly forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 630 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026

Adjusted PoPs based on a blend of models through tonight, mainly
to put a floor of about 20 percent through each of the overnight.
Otherwise, the forecast is on track with just a refresh of latest
hourly T/Td grids.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 430 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026

As of this afternoon, an upper level ridge extended from NC to VA
to the eastern Great Lakes to James Bay. An initial shortwave
extended from near the OH/IN border to Central Ky to middle and
eastern TN. Meanwhile the 500 mb trough axis extended from the
Upper MS Valley to the mid MS Valley. West of this trough,
another upper level ridge axis extended from the western Gulf
across TX into sections of Mexico. At the surface, a frontal zone
extended from NC into part of the Central Appalachians/southeast
KY near WV border and then into sections of the mid MS Valley to
Central Plains. Moisture has increased over the past 24 hours with
sfc dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s in the southeast where there
has been a bit of a weak downslope component low 70s further
northwest and west. PW was analyzed near 1.5 in eastern Pike
County to around 2.1 inches near the I-75 corridor to the Lake
Cumberland region. Denser clouds and slow moving band of
convection was over western parts of the area while some passing
high clouds and cumulus has developed in portions of the east.
Temperatures ranged from the mid to upper 80s in deeper valleys
in the Big Sandy region to the lower 70s where rain was falling.

This evening and tonight, the initial shortwave trough is progged
to move east across eastern KY while the 500 mb trough axis/
another shortwave will approach eastern KY late. PW will remain
high this evening and tonight, peaking near the 99th percentile
along and in advance of the shortwave this evening, but still
remaining at 1.7 to 1.95 inches tonight or the about the 92nd
percentile or higher. As this shortwave and area of convection
move east into areas currently in the 80s and MLCAPE near 1000
J/kg, some additional development appears probable this evening.
A relative lull from late evening into the start of the overnight
is the general consensus of guidance before the 500 mb trough
axis/next shortwave near and additional activity may develop
and/or approach from the west. Shear and storm motions will be on
the lower side this evening/tonight and any locations that
receive multiple rounds could pick up localized heavy rain and
have some generally minor flood issues. With the moist airmass in
place, temperatures trend milder for lows especially valleys with
widespread upper 60s to low 70s across the region.

Tuesday and Tuesday night, the 500 mb trough axis per the guidance
of consensus moves east of the area through Tuesday evening. Some
guidance does have an MCS approaching the region from the
northwest late Tuesday night, however. Multiple rounds of
convection are anticipated on Tuesday with the 500 mb trough axis
moving through the area. A general uptick in coverage with the
heating of the day progressing from west to east. PW remains
elevated and generally peaks in the 95th to 99th percentile range
or 1.6 to 2.0 inch range per 12Z HREF mean. Any locations that
pick up multiple rounds of heavy rain could experience some
instances of high water or localized flooding. A lull/decrease in
chances for convection is forecast during the evening with the
500 mb trough axis moving east with some uncertainty late in the
period as to the potential track and progression of a possible
MCS. Global models and some CAMS brings this activity from central
into eastern KY late, while some guidance is further southwest or
weaker. The NBM pops were followed at this point, though there is
a chance that Tuesday night remains drier than currently
forecast. Highs, especially across the central and eastern potion
of the area will trend down for Tuesday with clouds and
convection with mild lows Tuesday night int the mid 60s to low
70s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 424 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026

The long wave pattern will remain amplified through early next
week. Ridging will remain sprawled across the southern third of the
CONUS through Friday, while an upper level low takes shape across
south central Canada, allowing for broad troughing to work east
across the northern third of the CONUS. This trough will then
expand further south this weekend and into early next week,
although to what degree, remains uncertain at this point. This
generally results in a continuation of periods of unsettled
weather across eastern Kentucky through the period, with
particularly humid conditions in place through Friday.

500 mb heights will be increasing across eastern Kentucky during
the day on Wednesday, with rain chances likely decreasing after
the morning hours. Temperatures will top out in the mid to upper
80s. Relatively lower rain chances will continue through Thursday,
as we remain under the influence of short wave ridging. Did add
in some valley fog Wednesday night, given the balmy conditions and
mostly clear skies. Also lowered the valley lows into the mid to
upper 60s, while broader valleys and ridgetops remain around the 70
degree mark. Thursday will be warmer, with highs in the upper 80s
to near 90. Heat indices will peak more in the mid 90s, given the
lower 70s dew points in place.

A cold front will take aim at the area on Friday, with another round
of more widespread convection and the potential of locally heavy
rainfall, as upper level flow remains parallel with the surface
boundary. This boundary will then sag south and stall through the
rest of the weekend and into early next week, although how close,
remains in question at this point. In general, dew points do look
to dip back into the 60s, with highs reducing a few degrees as
well. PoPs have also diminished through the first part of the
weekend, but then ramp back up by late Sunday and Monday. Again,
confidence is low this far out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 158 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026

VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail early this
morning, though a few showers could bring briefly worse
conditions through daybreak. Some fog is also possible, especially
at KSME and KLOZ, though is not explicitly mentioned in the TAFs
due to low confidence. CAMs suggest a redevelopment of more
substantial shower and thunderstorm activity toward daybreak and
later in the morning with the arrival of convection now located
west of a line from Louisville to Nashville. Flight category
reductions to MVFR or lower are anticipated. Winds will be light
and variable through daybreak before becoming southwest at 5 to 10
kts with gusts between 10 and 20 kts during the late morning and
afternoon.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...GEERTSON