Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

183
FXUS63 KJKL 011907
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
207 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A wintery mix of precipitation is expected to spread north
  across the forecast area after dawn on Monday morning, but
  accumulations are forecast to be light.

- A significant warming trend is expected over the next work week,
  but this leads to repetitive precipitation chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 207 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2026

Based on the latest surface analysis, a 1038 mb surface high is
centered over the northwestern Great Lakes. Although the center of
the high is approximately 1,000 miles away, its far-reaching
influence is being felt across eastern Kentucky. This mornings front
has shifted to the southeast; however, lingering cloud cover remains
as a weak wave traverses the Tennessee Valley. Despite this, the
surface high continues to dominate the weather pattern across the
eastern portion of the state. Skies are clearing and temperatures
are warming across the area, with readings climbing into the mid 40s
in the north and reaching the mid to upper 60s in the far
southeastern portions of the CWA.

Through the remainder of the day, the surface high will shift
eastward, maintaining dry conditions and allowing temperatures to
reach the upper 40s to upper 60s from north to south. By tonight,
increasing chances for mixed precipitation are forecast as a system
moves into the region. This approaching system is progged to track
along a baroclinic zone, the remnants of this mornings cold front,
and arrive at the doorstep of the CWA by late tonight. Low-level
easterly flow will promote cooling toward the freezing mark;
however, winds above the 850 mb level are westerly, creating a warm
nose aloft. This thermal structure will be the primary driver for a
wintry mix at the onset of precipitation.

Present thinking suggests that areas along and south of a line from
Rockcastle to Letcher counties will see rain, while areas along and
northwest of a line from Estill to Johnson counties will see snow.
Locations between these areas are forecast to experience a wintry
mix of rain, snow, freezing rain, and potentially sleet. As the
system progresses, the wintry mix will lift north through the area
and as this happens a transition to all rain is expected by mid-
morning Monday and then remains rain through the day. Impacts during
the Monday morning commute could be hazardous as the wintry mix
moves through. An SPS was issued to address the marginal wintry
threat. This event remains marginal for several reasons: first,
forecast soundings are borderline regarding precipitation type;
second, ground and road temperatures remain well above freezing with
no substantial cold air advection expected ahead of the
precipitation shield. Therefore, an SPS is being utilized rather
than a Winter Weather Advisory. Nevertheless, slick spots cannot be
ruled out on bridges, overpasses, or in areas of higher
precipitation rates, and motorists should exercise extreme caution.
Once the transition to rain is complete late Monday morning,
precipitation is forecast to persist through the end of the period.

The period will be characterized by the departure of high pressure
and the arrival of a southwestern system bringing initial wintry
precipitation before transitioning to rain by early Monday
afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to remain near seasonal
averages through the period.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1253 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2026

Zonal 500h pattern will exist at the beginning of the long term
(Tuesday morning) with a warm/stationary front becoming established
just to our north across the Ohio River Valley. Warm advection will
increase through the end of the week as the upper pattern becomes
increasingly more southwesterly, with deep troughing over the
Southwest US and strong ridging over the Western Atlantic. The
result will be temperatures 20 to 25 degrees above normal on
average, with the potential for a few 80-degree readings across
parts of the area Friday before a weak cold frontal passage next
weekend lowers temperatures at least partially and temporarily back
towards normal readings.

The period has the potential to become quite active with rain
chances generally increasing through the remainder of the week ahead
of the expected cold frontal passage next weekend, with generally
higher chances expected toward the northern and western parts of the
forecast area. Thunderstorms will be a good bet as moisture
increases and stability lowers, with the potential for a few strong
storms by next weekend. Additionally, with the significant warm and
moisture advection into the area it would seem reasonable there will
be at least some increased risk for excessive rainfall for parts of
the area, especially if there are multiple consecutive days of
showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2026

Surface high pressure building in behind this morning`s cold front
has allowed for clearing skies and VFR TAFs. TAFs are forecast to
remain VFR through much of the period; however, as an approaching
system gets closer to the region, increasing and lowering CIGS are
anticipated. Showers with mixed precipitation type are possible
for all terminals except KLOZ and KSME (which are forecast to
remain all rain) mainly after 12Z and continuing through 15Z
before precipitation switches to all rain. During this time frame,
TAFs are forecast to fall into categorical MVFR and remain there
through the remainder of the TAF window. Winds are forecast to be
less than 10 knots through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...VORST