Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

974
FXUS63 KJKL 071312
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
912 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and humid weather will persist through the week.

- There is a possibility of showers and thunderstorms through the
  week, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.

- Locally heavy rainfall will be a threat each day.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026

The Dense Fog Advisory has been allowed to expire, though fog will
continue to be an issue for adjacent ridgetops to the river
valleys as the fog continues to lift and before burning off
completely in the next hour or two.

Satellite imagery shows agitated cumulus along our border counties
with Tennessee, and radar suggests some shower activity may be
occurring. Have thus broadbrushed the area with 15 PoPs this
morning, with a steady uptick in PoPs into the afternoon.


UPDATE Issued at 730 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026

Aside from upping most of the area to a Dense Fog Advisory through
9 am, no significant changes were made to the forecast with
mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the
T/Td/Sky grids. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and
web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 410 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026

07Z sfc analysis shows a weak and ill defined pressure pattern
over eastern Kentucky. This is allowing microphysics and the
diurnal cycle to dominate the weather. As such, this night, there
have been enough clear patches that the moist boundary layer has
prompted the development of fog - locally dense. Otherwise, due to
high humidity there is minimal terrain differences showing up in
the temperatures. Specifically, mercury readings are generally
within a tick or two of 70 degrees - similar to dewpoints - amid
light to calm winds. An SPS is in effect for the areas of dense
fog to start the morning across the entirety of the JKL CWA.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, continue to be
in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict a 5h positively tilted trough laid out
from northern New England to eastern Arkansas to start the period.
This western core of the trough only slowly drifts east through
midweek while gradually filling. This process will maintain lower
heights over Kentucky but with the better energy staying west of
the JKL area through 00Z Thursday. Given the still decent
agreement among the models, the NBM was used as the starting point
for the grids with some adjustment applied for very minor terrain
details in the temperature tonight. As for PoPs, additional
convective timing and placement scenarios were included from the
latest CAMs guidance. This was again smoothed and fitted to a
reasonable diurnal signal.

Sensible weather features days of typical summertime conditions on
repeat as conditions will be warm and humid with mainly afternoon
and evening convection. Still slow storm motions and high PWS in
place means a heightened concern for localized flooding -
especially for places that see training cells. Nighttime
conditions in this pattern will be similar, as well, with
lingering evening convection giving way to partly cloudy skies and
valley fog formation - locally dense. Through the period and
beyond, the relatively high dewpoints and times of cloud cover
will limit any terrain effects on overnight temperatures.

The main adjustments to the NBM starting point were to again tweak
the NBM temps just a couple of degrees for minor terrain
distinctions tonight and to add more high resolution CAMs details
(smoothed out) into the PoPs and thunder potential grids through
Wednesday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026

The main change to the grids for the first part of the extended
forecast this morning was to add in just a touch of terrain
details each night along with some valley fog. Nearby troughing
aloft still looks to keep things unsettled through the period -
with highest PoPs and potential QPF noted for Thursday and
Friday. This is when the core of any mid-level energy passes
through eastern Kentucky along with a southward dropping sfc
boundary heading into the start of the weekend - synoptically
enhancing the pcpn.

The previous long term discussion follows:

Model guidance remains in good agreement regarding an amplifying
long wave pattern towards the end of the week and into early next
week. Detail differences do grow with time, especially pertaining
to questions associated with the influence of the mesoscale. An
upper level low will be positioned near the IL/KY/MO border to
begin Wednesday morning, with a positively tilted trough
stretched southwest through the lower Mississippi Valley. Further
east, ridging remains anchored across the southeastern CONUS,
while another high center remains over the far southwestern CONUS.
The upper low will gradually dampen and shift east through mid-
week, before the southwestern CONUS ridge amplifies, with
downstream troughing also sharpening from the Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley through New England. By the end of the week, an anomalously
strong high will be sprawled from the central/northern Rockies to
the central/northern Plains, while a broader trough is
established along the Eastern Seaboard. The high will continue to
spread east with time into early next week, with the eastern
trough enhancing across the western Atlantic.

All of this results in sustaining the true summer-time pattern
across eastern Kentucky, with daily convective chances mainly
peaking during the afternoon and evening hours. Model guidance has
trended away from showing much of a break in the action through
mid-week, given the influence of the dampening upper level low in
the vicinity of the Commonwealth and also a diffuse surface
frontal boundary nearby or just to our south. PWATs will remain
elevated throughout the week, with a particularly better surge of
850 mb moisture transport seen Friday into Saturday. Given this
more unsettled trend in the model guidance, WPC now has a
marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook in place across our area each
day through 12z Friday, followed by a Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall ending 12z Saturday. A more decisive cold front will
settle south of the Commonwealth by later this weekend or
sometime early next week. Eventually, this will result in
diminishing rain chances and lower dew points, although timing
this far out remains problematic. Temperatures through next Monday
will be seasonable, with daily highs mainly in the low to mid 80s
and overnight lows generally in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026

Aside from MVFR or VFR in the westernmost TAF site, most terminals
are reporting VLIFR with fog and low CIGs. This will clear out
over the next couple of hours for a brief period of VFR
conditions everywhere. However, the threat of showers and storms
are expected to redevelop this afternoon. Also anticipate at least
some low clouds setting up late tonight and possible visibility
restrictions into dawn Wednesday. Winds will be light and variable
through the period but convection could bring gusty and erratic
outflow winds along with category reductions.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JKL/GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF