Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

385
FXUS63 KJKL 062337
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
737 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and humid weather will persist through the next week.

- There is a possibility of showers and thunderstorms through the
  next week, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.

- Locally heavy rainfall will be a threat each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 447 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026

A weak and decaying cold front is near the northwest edge of the
forecast area late today, just southeast of a weak, positively
tilted upper trough. Very moist air is in place, and
showers/thunderstorms are popping up with the diurnal development
of instability, aided by the weak synoptic features mentioned.
Although instability is ample, shear is weak and storms are not
well organized. Outflow collisions are resulting in some brief,
isolated strong storms, and some limited training is giving
isolated heavy rainfall. Will look for an overall decrease in
activity tonight as instability wanes and there`s little forcing.
The dying front may be a bit further south and into the JKL
forecast area on Tuesday, but no appreciable change in air mass or
set-up will occur. Hence, a repeat performance is expected
Tuesday and Tuesday night. With enough decrease in clouds at
night, fog should develop, especially in valleys and where rain
occurs prior.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 621 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026

Model guidance remains in good agreement regarding an amplifying
long wave pattern towards the end of the week and into early next
week. Detail differences do grow with time, especially pertaining
to questions associated with the influence of the mesoscale. An
upper level low will be positioned near the IL/KY/MO border to
begin Wednesday morning, with a positively tilted trough
stretched southwest through the lower Mississippi Valley. Further
east, ridging remains anchored across the southeastern CONUS,
while another high center remains over the far southwestern CONUS.
The upper low will gradually dampen and shift east through mid-
week, before the southwestern CONUS ridge amplifies, with
downstream troughing also sharpening from the Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley through New England. By the end of the week, an anomalously
strong high will be sprawled from the central/northern Rockies to
the central/northern Plains, while a broader trough is
established along the Eastern Seaboard. The high will continue to
spread east with time into early next week, with the eastern
trough enhancing across the western Atlantic.

All of this results in sustaining the true summer-time pattern
across eastern Kentucky, with daily convective chances mainly
peaking during the afternoon and evening hours. Model guidance has
trended away from showing much of a break in the action through
mid-week, given the influence of the dampening upper level low in
the vicinity of the Commonwealth and also a diffuse surface
frontal boundary nearby or just to our south. PWATs will remain
elevated throughout the week, with a particularly better surge of
850 mb moisture transport seen Friday into Saturday. Given this
more unsettled trend in the model guidance, WPC now has a
marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook in place across our area each
day through 12z Friday, followed by a Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall ending 12z Saturday. A more decisive cold front will
settle south of the Commonwealth by later this weekend or
sometime early next week. Eventually, this will result in
diminishing rain chances and lower dew points, although timing
this far out remains problematic. Temperatures through next Monday
will be seasonable, with daily highs mainly in the low to mid 80s
and overnight lows generally in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026

A combination of MVFR to VFR observations exist across the area
as showers and thunderstorms are moving across eastern Kentucky.
This will continue over the next few hours before showers and
storms dissipate overnight. Once that occurs, clearing skies and
antecedent moisture from this afternoon`s showers and storms will
combine to create dense fog across all TAF sites. IFR to MVFR fog
is likely overnight before burning off with sunrise. A brief lull
will allow for TAFs to bounce back to VFR before showers and
storms redevelop Tuesday afternoon. Winds are forecast to be light
and variable through the period but convection could bring gusty
and erratic outflow winds and category reduction.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...VORST