Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

771
FXUS63 KJKL 252347
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
747 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Humid and often wet weather will last through mid week.

- Rain should become less prevalent late in the week as drier air
  arrives from the north.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 658 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026

Though it`s currently quiet across Eastern Kentucky, clouds will
thicken and showers will increase from south to north this
evening and overnight as a frontal boundary wavers back to the
north. Most of the rain should be light to briefly moderate and
any risk of lightning will probably hold off until closer to
morning. The forecast only needs some minor adjustments to bring
hourly T/Td/PoPs in line with the recent observations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 358| PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026

A pattern favorable for wet weather will remain in place through the
short term period. The main belt of prevailing westerlies aloft will
be well to our north, but we will be on the periphery of a
subtropical high off the southeast coast. We will be beneath the
right side of an anticyclonically curved upper jet on the northwest
side of the high, with much of our time spent in a right entrance
region. This will provide generalized lift while a warm and humid
air mass continues in place, favoring convective precip. Weak
features within the flow will help to provide times of more
concentrated precip, with diurnal heating cycles also contributing.
We also have a weak and diffuse frontal boundary over the area which
will eventually lift northward during the period, and it will
provide weak low level convergence to enhance lift. Models suggest
the greatest precip coverage and amounts will be with a round which
arrives overnight and lasts into Tuesday, but activity is also
expected outside of this time range. Precipitable water will
remain high, generally from 1.5-2", with tall and thin CAPE
profiles. This will support locally heavy rainfall where
convection is persistent.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026

A stationary front will be situated just north and west of the
area to begin the long-term period Wednesday, with Eastern
Kentucky entrenched within the muggy warm sector to its
southeast. A shortwave will cross the area during the day
Wednesday within southwesterly mid-level flow, with widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity within an environment
characterized by PWs around 1.8" and on top of saturated soils,
which will raise the possibility of at least isolated excessive
rainfall impacts.

The stationary front moves south through the area as a cold front
Wednesday night into Thursday as southwesterly mid-level flow turns
northerly for the second half of the week. A series of upper
troughs then dig south from eastern Canada through the Mid-
Atlantic to end the week into early next week. Big question mark
for Thursday and Friday is whether a wave within more westerly
flow aloft ahead of a deep closed low traversing the New England
region is able to ride along the stationary front to our south
and bring rain/showers to southern parts of the forecast area. At
this time, there is enough uncertainty to warrant low-end PoPs
across much of the forecast area, especially south of I-64 from
Thursday night through Sunday, with high enough confidence to take
out rain chances from roughly I-64 and points north as surface
high pressure should be close enough to suppress rain chance
south. By Sunday night, it appears all areas should be free of any
significant PoPs as surface high pressure prevails across the
Ohio River Valley.

Temperatures will remain mild through the period, with highs and
lows near normal overall (mid to upper 70s for highs, upper 50s
for lows) as southwesterly flow becomes northerly, and humid and
cloudy conditions with rain chances transition to a cooler and
drier regime.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026

VFR prevailed at the start of the forecast period. However
conditions will deteriorate to MVFR/IFR overnight and persist
through much of the day Tuesday as a frontal boundary lifts across
the area with renewed showers, low clouds and fog. The activity
will become more scattered and convective during the afternoon
and evening hours on Tuesday with thunderstorm chances noted by
PROB30s. Winds will remain light.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...GEERTSON