Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

042
FXUS63 KJKL 031731
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
131 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Persistent southwest winds, breezy in the afternoons, will
  continue pushing warmer-than-average and seasonably moist air
  into eastern Kentucky into the weekend.

- Expect a couple more days with highs in the upper 70s to mid
  80s, and mild overnight temperatures bottoming in the 50s and
  60s - through Saturday.

- Look for daily small chances for showers and storms until a
  stronger cold front moves through the region Saturday evening
  and overnight. Cooler temperatures follow for Sunday and the
  start of the new week.

- Any showers and storms will provide some needed rainfall across
  portions of eastern Kentucky.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 720 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids
but also a tweaking of the PoPs in the near term per current radar
imagery. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and
web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 500 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2026

08Z sfc analysis shows eastern Kentucky still between high
pressure off to the southeast and a slowly approaching weather
system to the west. This has placed the area in the large warm
sector of the next weather maker along with persistent southwest
flow. A remnant and dying boundary is slipping into northwest
parts of the JKL CWA with a band of showers - perhaps bringing
down some gustier winds, at times. Some thinner clouds out ahead
of this boundary did allow for a bit of extra cooling for many of
the eastern valleys. Temperatures currently range from some
isolated mid 50s in those sheltered spots to the upper 60s and
lower 70s on ridges and in the more open terrain. Meanwhile, amid
southerly winds of 5 to 10 mph - with some higher gusts in the
northwest closer to the inbound boundary, dewpoints are running
in the low 50s east to near 60 degrees in the west.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, continue
to be in very good agreement aloft through the short term portion
of the forecast. They all depict an initial 5h shortwave passing
northeast of Kentucky early this morning dragging a weakening
band of energy through the area pre-dawn. In its wake, heights
will briefly and marginally climb as a ridge to east temporarily
expands across the southern Appalachians later today. At the same
time, a stronger, closed trough will be working north of east
through the Northern Plains. This will support a tightening of the
southwest mid-level flow through Kentucky and the Ohio Valley
tonight. Heights locally will not really start to fall from this
secondary wave until later on Saturday just as more energy pushes
into the region while the parent trough lifts northeast to the
northern Great Lakes. Since the model solutions remain fairly well
aligned through the short term portion of the forecast, the NBM
was used as the starting point for the grids. The main adjustments
to this initialization were to incorporate more in the way of
details from the latest higher resolution CAMs for small PoPs and
thunder chances through Saturday morning before the more
substantial showers and storms of the front move into our area by
that evening.

Sensible weather features a couple more days of unseasonably warm
days and nights with breezy afternoon conditions on southwest
winds - rather gusty on Saturday just ahead of the front`s
arrival. Still see a potential for some cooler valleys tonight,
amid overall warm conditions, before the southwest winds pick up
towards dawn and mix out any temperature differences. Increasing
winds aloft with the front and trough (also better instability)
will mean a threat for strong to severe storms - especially
north - Saturday afternoon and into the evening with gusty winds
and hail as the main threat. This front should also bring a
thorough soaking of rain to the area by Sunday which is needed to
ease fire weather concerns after two weeks or so of nearly dry
weather.

The changes to the NBM starting point mainly consisted of
including more details in the PoPs grids on account of the latest
CAMs guidance today through Saturday afternoon. In this now
rather moist environment, temperatures and dewpoints were kept
mostly untouched from the NBM though again did allow for some
terrain-based radiative cooling effects during the first part of
tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 513 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2026

The long term period opens Saturday evening with a cold front on the
doorstep of the CWA. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are
expected Saturday night, wrapping up with the front passing
southeast of the area sometime Sunday morning. Some of these storms
could become strong to severe, with gusty winds and hail as the main
threats, generally north of the Hal Rogers/KY Highway 80 corridor. A
Marginal Risk (Level 1/5)for severe weather was introduced by the
Storm Prediction Center highlighting those threats. Dry weather
returns through much of Sunday, and the week ahead as high pressure
builds back into the region.

Temperatures Saturday night drop into the mid to upper 40s, and warm
into the upper 50s to low 60s on Sunday. A gradual warming trend
continues through next week, potentially ending in the upper 70s by
Thursday. Overnight lows do return to the 30s and 40s through next
week, with the coldest night/morning being Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning where temperatures could be near freezing (32
degrees). This could lead to frost formation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2026

VFR TAFs are present across the area with the 18Z issuance.
Lingering shower activity from this morning is starting to move
off to the northeast but the environment is favorable for more
pop-up showers/storms through 23Z. Gusty winds out of the
southwest are starting to develop. Sustained winds around 10 to 15
knots with gusts from 20 to 25 knots will be likely through the
afternoon. Showers and storms, along with winds will diminish
overnight with clearing skies; however, increasing winds are
forecast for the area around 13 to 14Z/Saturday ahead of an
approaching cold front.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...VORST