Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

860
FXUS63 KJKL 120020 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
820 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms remains for all of
  eastern Kentucky for this evening, with damaging winds and
  an isolated tornadoes the primary severe threats.

- Torrential downpours, hail up to 1 inch in diameter, and wind
  gusts outside of storms between 30 and 40 mph are also possible.

- After a sharp cooldown behind a cold front on Thursday, mild
  temperatures return for Friday into the weekend.

- Wind gusts to 30 to 40 mph on Friday and this could combine with
  drying conditions resulting in a threat of wildfires.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 820 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows fairly deep low pressure to the north is
dragging a sharp cold front into Kentucky. Ahead of this, a pre-
frontal trough line allowed for a couple of distinct area of
strong to severe thunderstorms. The southern batch ended up more
linear with straight line wind gusts the main impact - though some
transient features kept warning operations on their toes. To the
north, discrete cells were favored with more sustained meso-
cyclones but most drifting north out of the JKL CWA before
becoming stronger. We are still watching the last of the initial
storms that have access to better instability and their mesoscale
features - including the northern tip of the southern curl that
may behave similar to an MCV as it shifts east and shortly out of
the CWA. Otherwise, with the cold front yet to go through, expect
continued threats of showers and stray thunderstorms until fropa
- closer to midnight for most of the CWA - but the threat for
severe weather will be just about over shortly. Currently,
temperatures are running in the low to mid 60s west, closer to
the boundary, and in the low to mid 70s east, still ahead of the
initial cells. Meanwhile, amid breezy southwest winds of 10 to 20
mph and higher gusts, dewpoints vary from the low 60s west to the
low and mid 50s east. Have updated the forecast mainly to fine
tune the PoPs deep into the night and also to add in the latest
obs and trends for the T/Td grids. These adjustments have been
sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a forthcoming
freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 555 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026

Late this afternoon, an upper trough extended from western Ontario
across the Lake Superior vicinity to mid MS Valley to eastern TX.
Ahead of the front, a sfc low was centered near Lake Ontario and
southeastern Quebec vicinity with a cold front trailing to
southeast of KCVG to the KSDF vicinity to eastern TX. Substantial
wind shear with effective shear on the order of 35KT in the far
southeast to 50 to 55KT in the west is in place per recent SPC RAP
based mesoanalysis page while low level lapse rates ahead of
convection are generally in the 6.6 to 8C/km range though mid
level lapse rates are more meager in the 5.5 to 6.5C/km with
instability also very modest at best in the 250 to about 500 J/kg
range. Gusty prefrontal convection was over the Lake Cumberland
Region near 6 PM EDT while a likely gusty convective line was
occurring along the cold front.

The prefrontal convection should continue east and northeast this
evening and could be strong to severe with strong to damaging
winds and perhaps a brief spinup tornado with any surge in the
line segments. Otherwise, a bit of hail and torrential downpours
will be a threat. Gusts to 40 mph may accompany the convection
near the front. Otherwise, the front will continue southeast
across the CWA this evening and be southeast of the CWA by around
midnight. The low level flow will become more west to northwest
with lingering low level moisture and some lingering upslope
showers for a time in the southeast before the low levels dry out
closer to around dawn.

The associated shortwave trough will cross the area after sunrise
through early afternoon on Thursday while a dry airmass with 15
to 25 percent 1000 to 500 mb mean layer RH. PW should drop off
areawide into the 0.10 to 0.15 inch range in the afternoon or
roughly the 5th to 15th percentile per 12Z HREF mean. This will
allow for rh to fall to near or below critical levels areawide,
drying fuels for the weekend with winds north to northwest and
less gusty as compared to today.

The high shifts east of the area on Thursday night while a dry
front approaches associated with a shortwave that moves across the
Northern Plains and nears the western Great Lakes. The pattern
will support a ridge/valley temperature split with typically
colder eastern valleys falling below the freezing mark while
coalfield ridges drop to the mid to upper 30s. Associated local
terrain adjustments were made to the base deterministic NBM
guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 545 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026

Following the drying on Thursday, return flow should allow for
some recovery of moisture through the column with PW per the 12Z
HREF mean ranging on the order of 0.25 near the VA border and
0.40 in Fleming County or roughly the 30th to 40th percentile early
on Friday per 12Z LREF mean. PW should climb to the 45th to 55th
percentile or PW on the order of 0.4 to 0.5 inch range by Friday
evening also per 12Z LREF mean. Following drying that may be
rather quick on Thursday, pending final QPE and much of the
vegetation having moved or moving out of dormancy and taking in
water and decreasing soil moisture fuels should continue to dry as
sfc high pressure departs and another system in northwest flow
that treks across the Great Lakes on Friday will set the stage for
gusty winds ahead of the associated moisture deprived dry cold
front. Gusts should be quite a bit more substantial than the NBM
deterministic and 30 to 40 mph gusts and perhaps stronger in the
north are probable per Bufkit momentum transfer and ENS based
LFEF wind gust probs of 40 mph or more ranging from 10 to 30% in
the Lake Cumberland Region and 40 to 90 percent further to the
north and northeast. These gusts will increase following nocturnal
inversion mixing out toward 10 AM EDT in the morning, with the
approach of a dry cold front. Near critical or near critical winds
and RH are currently anticipated for most of the CWA except the
far west and northwest from west of Lake Cumberland to northwest
of I-64. Fuels would be a bit in question there with status
pending QPE from rainfall through tonight and how quick things dry
out on Thursday leading into Friday.

The shortwave trough/upper low in the Great Lakes vicinity late
Friday moves into Quebec and the Northeast/St Lawrence Valley for
Fri night and eventually Maritimes to start the weekend with the
dry cold front crossing the area late Fri into Fri evening.
Another sfc high builds in behind that as a broad upper trough
lingers from Canada into the Great Lakes/portions of the eastern
Conus downstream of northwest flow continuing from the Pacific
across southwest Canada and the western Conus to the Central
Conus late Friday/Friday evening. The pattern takes on a bit more
zonal flavor for Saturday, before guidance generally has a trough
developing over the High Plains/Plains/Central Conus to end the
weekend. That trough is progged to gradually move into the eastern
Conus Sunday night Monday and remain through the end of the
period, with the axis shifting east into Quebec to New England to
Carolinas to FL. An associated sfc system should track from the
Plains to the Great Lakes later Saturday into Sunday and Sunday
night and then eventually Quebec and the Maritimes and send
another strong cold front across eastern KY Sunday evening/Sunday
night.

The late weekend cold front and associated trough will bring the
next chance for precipitation by late Sunday afternoon/evening to
Monday night. Much colder air moves in behind the front, and 850
mb temperatures should fall to near if not below 0C near the VA
near sunrise on Monday morning. Both the recent LREF means and
operational guidance support this and cold air advection continues
through the day on Monday and 850 mb temperatures fall toward if
not below about -10C through Monday evening. If sufficient low
level moisture exists, upslope flow and steep lapse rates support
continued shower chances in the form of rain and snow from late
Sunday night in the west and areawide Monday to Monday evening
trending to primarily snow showers and flurries. Temperatures may
struggle to climb above 40 to 45 degrees during the daylight
hours on Monday in many locations, followed by lows in the mid
teens to mid 20s on Monday night, and then struggle to rise above
40 in many areas on Tuesday with 850 mb temperatures likely to
remain in the -10C to -15C well into Tuesday per the 12Z LREF mean.
High pressure builds in on Tuesday, shifting east of the area at
midweek that may be accompanied by at least a moderate
ridge/valley temperature split. Temperatures moderate on
Wednesday to nearer to, but still below normal. With another
system approaching, there is a small chance of showers with little
or no measurable rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026

Active late afternoon and early evening through the aviation
forecast area with the southern portions seeing very gusty winds
as linear thunderstorms moved through. Just KSJS to have its turn
over the next hour or so with the others in the wake of the
leading edge and looking at lowering CIGs with MVFR vis in
showers. Expect widespread reductions to MVFR and then likely too
a period of IFR through around midnight in advance of a cold front
with the pre-frontal band of convection and perhaps additional
showers or storms thereafter along the front translating across
the JKL CWA through 04Z. Improvements back to MVFR should arrive
in the northwest near KSYM and KIOB around or after 06Z with VFR
arriving for both sites toward 12Z. Improvements to MVFR should
also occur through 10Z further south and southwest at KJKL, KSJS,
KSME, and KLOZ with further improvements for these locations
between 12 and 16Z.

Southwesterly winds will average 10 to 20 kts with gusts into the
20 to 30 kts range. Gusts, outside of storms, should become a bit
less intense going forward before abruptly veering to the northwest
between 02 and 06Z with the passage of the cold front late this
evening. Northwest to west winds and their CAA then build in
through the end of the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP/GREIF