Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

510
FXUS63 KJKL 030233
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1033 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid weather persists at quite oppressive levels through
  the rest of the week.

- Mostly dry weather is anticipated through tonight, before
  chances for showers and storms return to end the week and over
  the weekend.

- Thunderstorms from Friday to the middle of next week may produce
  strong to locally damaging wind gusts and locally heavy
  rainfall, potentially leading to a few instances of flooding.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1033 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026

The forecast is on track with little in the way of changes needed
with the late evening update. There will be passing high clouds
from the south through the overnight, which is leftover cloud
debris from convection over the Southeast US.

UPDATE Issued at 625 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026

Trimmed back PoPs to just less than 15 percent, thus removing
mention of any precipitation in the point-and-click forecasts, for
our far southwest counties based on latest observed satellite
trends and the lack of any actual cumulus development.

Hourly T/Td grids were also updated utilizing the latest hourly
observations as the starting point for the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 415 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026

Late this afternoon, an east to west oriented upper level ridge
was centered near the KY and WV border. Further west an upper
level trough extended from western Canada into sections of the
western Conus with southwest flow from the Rockies to parts of
the Central and Northern Plains. Nearer to the center of the ridge
diurnally driven cumulus has mixed out/dissipated. Further to the
south of the ridge center some convection has developed from
parts of western NC and GA northwest across parts of TN to western
KY. As of 4 PM EDT, temperatures were mainly in the 90s with
generally low to mid 70s dewpoints resulting in heat indices from
the upper 90s to around 104 in most locations.

This evening and tonight, the center of the upper ridge should
shift a bit further east to near or east of the Blue Ridge in VA.
Rather substantial instability will linger into the evening, but
the upper ridge should keep cumulus capped across eastern KY this
evening into tonight. This is consistent with convective allowing
guidance that has generally trended to keeping convection through
late evening south and southwest of the CWA. Otherwise, valley fog
formation should again occur and this may be dense along some of
the river valleys.

For Friday and Friday night, the center of the upper level ridge
will shift south and southeast across the Carolinas with the
ridge weakening as a series of shortwave troughs move around the
ridge from the Plains across the Great Lakes to the Northeast.
Forcing will again be limited on Friday for convection, but
deferential heating or perhaps the higher terrain near Black
Mountain, Pine Mountain or SW VA ridges could be a point where
initiation could occur per some of the CAMS and outflows to the
north and northwest could lead to additional convection. As was
the case yesterday, the recent NAM and HRRR runs keep coverage
limited and mainly near the VA and KY border while there is more
coverage in the typically too aggressive FV3 and ARW.
Temperatures again peaking in the low to mid 90s for may locations
while dewpoints are mainly in the 70s should result in
substantial CAPE so if anything were to develop it could be
pulsy and lead to strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts.
Brief heavy rain could also occur. With the ridge continuing to
weaken and a shortwave trough possibly entering the Lower OH
Valley, convection cannot completely be ruled out at night for
Friday night. However, for now, pops for Friday to Friday night
maintained more of a diurnal flavor, diminishing a couple hours
past sunset.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 351 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026

The long term period opens in the midst of a pattern change as the
upper level ridge continues to break down over eastern Kentucky.
By Saturday, the center of the 500 mb high will no longer be
directly overhead, providing some relief from the heat. However,
temperatures will still be firmly above average across the
forecast area on Independence Day, with highs likely in the low to
mid 90s, and given dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s,
conditions will still be quite muggy. In conjunction with this
heat and moisture, a deeply unstable environment will build, and
with minimal capping, scattered diurnally driven convection is
expected to develop. This high instability, in addition to steep
low level lapse rates, will promote a wet microburst risk with any
storms that do form; accordingly, the Storm Prediction Center has
introduced a Day 3 Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for isolated
damaging winds. With weak flow aloft, shear will be minimal, and
convection will tend towards being pulse-like in nature. Notably,
SPC does highlight the potential for a more organized damaging
wind threat if an MCS can develop upstream, although confidence is
very low in this outcome. In addition to the low end severe risk,
moisture will be favorable for torrential downpours; LREF mean PW
values are generally in the 1.5-1.7 in range on Saturday evening,
indicating an anomalously moist environment (generally in the
70th-80th percentile compared to climatology). To cover the
potential for heavy rain and perhaps isolated flash flooding in
the strongest storms, the Weather Prediction Center has maintained
a Day 3 Marginal Risk (Level 1/4) for Excessive Rainfall across
the entire forecast area. Although isolated severe weather and
flash flooding are possible, it is worth noting that thunderstorm
activity is not currently expected to be widespread in the
afternoon and evening; thus, although some areas will be impacted
by storms, it appears likely that most areas will remain dry.
Regardless, interests are encouraged to remain weather aware for
the duration of any outdoor Independence Day celebrations.

Following typical valley fog development overnight Saturday, Sunday
will present another opportunity for showers and storms. With the
upper level ridge mostly decayed over our area, convective
coverage will likely be higher than Saturday. A broad area of
height falls will overspread the area as an upper level low
translates east towards Lake Superior, with general troughing over
the Midwest. At the surface, an area of low pressure will be
located in the Great Lakes, with a frontal boundary draped to the
west. This boundary will gradually sag towards Kentucky as the
upper level low translates to the southeast, providing an
additional mechanism for showers and storms. The environment will
still be anomalously moist, with LREF mean PW values marginally
higher than the day before in the 1.6-1.8 in range (largely
ranging from the 80th to 90th percentile across the forecast
area); thus, storms will again be capable of producing heavy rain.
Accordingly, WPC has kept eastern Kentucky in a Marginal Risk
(Level 1/4) for Excessive Rainfall on Sunday and Monday, although
flash flood potential will depend on whether multiple rounds of
showers and storms end up tracking over the same area. Boundary
parallel flow further indicates that flooding from training
convection could become a concern, particularly with such a slow
moving front, although confidence in storm timing remains low in
such a nebulous pattern. Thankfully, this pattern should bring
further relief from the heat, with highs dipping into the low 90s
on Sunday and some areas seeing highs in the 80s on Monday (and
storm activity could reduce these temperatures further!).

Looking ahead, rain chances will continue through the end of the
period. Models generally depict the aforementioned front continuing
to sag to the south towards Tennessee, although great spatial
disagreement still exists at this time. Overall, unsettled weather
is expected, with the synoptic pattern featuring troughing over
the eastern CONUS and the potential for additional shortwave
activity. Heavy rainfall will still be a concern as the
environment remains moist, but thankfully, this cloud cover and
rain should further mitigate the heat. Temperatures will continue
to run cooler, and by the middle of next week, highs in the mid
90s should be nothing more than a distant memory.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026

High pressure will keep the weather quiet, with mostly VFR
conditions through much of the period. We continue to stick close
to a persistence forecast for tonight, with some temporary
restrictions not out of the question at some point between 08Z and
13Z at some or all of the TAF sites, though confidence is still
not high enough to include reductions at this juncture. Non-TAF
site locations could drop to the IFR range or possibly lower. Any
fog should lift around 13Z, and we will be left with mainly VFR
skies as diurnally-driven cumulus develop between 3 and 5 kft agl
level through the afternoon. The winds will remain generally
light and variable.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...CMC