Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

666
FXUS63 KJKL 271725
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1225 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures will persist into Saturday, before a
  modest cool down for Sunday and Monday behind a cold front.

- After low chances (<20%) for measurable rain in the north behind
  a late weekend cold front, there is greater potential for more
  widespread precipitation at times next week.

- There is a potential for a wintery mix in more northern
  locations Sunday night and Monday, but at this time, any
  accumulations look to be light.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1222 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026

No major changes made to the grids aside from loading in the
latest surface obs and touching up diurnal warming trends through
the afternoon. Those changes have been saved and sent.

UPDATE Issued at 830 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026

Hourly grids were updated based on recent observations and trends.
This led to some changes in hourly temperatures in the northwest
mainly. Dense fog lingers in some areas, but should gradually lift
and dissipate over the next couple of hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 535 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026

Early this morning, a broad upper level trough extended from
Canada into part of the Central and eastern Conus while upper
level ridging was centered west of Baja with this ridging
extending north near the CA and OR coast to west of the Pacific
West of that, an upper low and troughing were over the eastern
Pacific. Downstream of this ridging, northwest flow extended from
the Gulf of AK vicinity across BC into the Northern and Central
Rockies and Plains to the OH and MS Valleys. A shortwave rough
working across the OH Valley at this time. South of the area, a
frontal zone will extend into the Carolinas to GA to northwest
Gulf. A sfc ridge of high pressure was in place from New England
west to the OH Valley to Red River Valley of the South. An upper
level low was was moving from Manitoba toward Ontario through the
northwest to west flow through the mean troughing.

Locally, stratus has remained persistent or redeveloped overnight
south of a Mtn Parkway to Johnson County line. High clouds have
also been moving overhead int he south and southeast. The stratus
has also redeveloped north along the escarpment from eastern
Estill County to near Owingsville. However, there is a break in
the low clouds from western Estill County to Fleming County south
to northeastern Wolfe County across Morgan to Elliott County
around this northward extension of the low stratus. Dense fog has
developed in these areas of clearing following recent rainfall
with with along much of the Licking River and tributaries and
sections of the Red River and mainstem of the KY River in western
Powell to western Estill county. An SPS was issued for the valley
fog as where skies remain clear it will affect the morning commute
in some of the northern sections of the CWA. Otherwise,
temperatures have dropped into the upper 20s to low 30s where the
low stratus has cleared, while temperatures elsewhere were in the
mid 30s to low 40s.

Today, the initial fog and low stratus will gradually lift
through the morning. Mild temperatures, on the order of 5 to 10
degrees above normal for late February, should follow as shortwave
ridging takes hold with 500 mb height rises are anticipated behind
the passing shortwave while the sfc high pressure ridge extending
from east of the New England coast to Central Appalachians to TN
Valley generally dominates. Locations across the north and
northeast where recent rainfall was less substantial should dry
out a bit more substantially than the NBM deterministic values for
and adjustments have been made accordingly to support land
management partners potential prescribed burn window.

Tonight, sfc high pressure pressure ridge shifts to the southeast
while the boundary associated with the upper level low in Canada
that reaches Quebec approaches form the northwest. Only a modest
increase in moisture in the column is expected late tonight with
some low to mid level clouds possible late. This combined with
anticipated dewpoints and souther low level flow as the high
departs to the east and southeast will support a moderate
magnitude ridge/valley temperature split for tonight. The coldest
posts will likely be in the north and east and min T may near the
30 degree mark or at least reach near freezing while more open
terrain locations and coalfield ridges only drop to the upper 30s
to low 40s. Some valley fog will again be possible.

Upper level troughing will remain from eastern Canada to the
Great Lakes to Southeast through the start of the weekend,
gradually become more broad with more westerly/zonal flow from the
Rockies to OH Valley to the VA to CA coastal late Sunday. For
Saturday, the moisture starved sf boundary will gradually sag into
eastern KY sfc while a shortwave trough passes. South to
southwest flow will support temperatures reaching well into the
60s for highs. The boundary settles south of eastern KY on Sunday
morning with the potential for limited moisture to lag behind it.
Some forcing and lift may be present as in recent GFS runs for
patchy light rain or showers late Saturday night in the north.
Isolated pops from the NBM deterministic were maintained for areas
generally north of the Mtn Parkway. Some of this activity if it
were to materialize could linger past dawn on Sunday. However,
recent NAM and ECMWF have less moisture and the only weather would
be an increase in clouds Saturday night into Sunday. Behind the
boundary/baroclinic zone, highs will be near if not a bit below
normal while areas in the south should be near to a few degrees
above normal for nights. A substantial north to south temperature
gradient from the mid 40s near and north of the I-64 corridor to
near the 60 degree mark along the TN border. The
boundary/baroclinic zone that settles south of the area will be
more of weather maker in the long term forecast as it interacts
with shortwaves moving from the Plains into the Central and
Eastern Conus.

.LONG TERM...(After midnight Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 642 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

The long term forecast period continues to look quite active here in
Eastern Kentucky. The forecast guidance suite collectively resolves
a regime of quasi-zonal flow over the region through midweek, with
multiple embedded shortwave disturbances. As each of these impulses
approaches the Ohio River Valley, they will reinforce a warm air
advection regime and push a stalled frontal boundary further to the
north. This set-up yields repetitive precipitation chances amidst an
overarching warming trend, and we will have to closely monitor the
potential for convection and river/stream rises towards the end of
the period as a result. Before then, however, our attention will be
focused upon a marginal winter weather set-up from Sunday night into
Monday afternoon.

When the period opens on Sunday night, the forecast area will be
positioned between a Canadian high to the north and a stalled frontal
boundary to the south. The resultant northeasterly surface flow will
advect a shallow layer of sub-freezing air into the northern half of
the commonwealth. Areas along and north of the Mountain Parkway
corridor are most likely to see minimum temperatures below 32
degrees headed into Monday morning, with 55-75% probabilities noted
in both the LREF and NBM ensembles. As upstream cyclogenesis occurs
on Monday morning within a baroclinic zone centered over the Lower
Ohio River Valley, above-surface flow at the 925/850mb levels will
veer towards the southwest and introduce warm air advection/moisture
return to the column. This causes precipitation chances to increase
ahead of the Monday morning commute, but makes the precipitation
type forecast more complicated.

Over the past 24 hours, forecast guidance has generally shifted the
synoptic features associated with this event further to the north.
Likewise, the onset time of precipitation has trended later, which
will increase the influence of the warm nose on the p-type forecast.
Ensemble mean soundings depict it over southern Kentucky on Monday
morning and then moving into northern Kentucky on Monday afternoon.
This gives credence to the notion that precipitation closer to the
Tennessee state line will likely fall as rain, but the exact p-type
forecast further to the north remains unclear. Because higher-
resolution forecast model soundings are not available at the current
temporal range, the magnitude of this warm nose remains unclear.
This makes it difficult to determine the degree of melting and/or
wetbulbing that will occur within the column, so the forecast is
currently relegated to a rain/snow mix. Freezing rain cannot be
entirely ruled out, but the ensemble probabilities for this have
come down relative to this time yesterday. The LREF Grand Ensemble
probabilities for at least a glaze (>0.01 inches) have decreased to
less than 30% between I-64 and the Mountain Parkway, and it is noted
that the GFS is currently the more aggressive ice solution. The
greatest measurable (>0.1 inches) LREF snowfall probabilities (30-
50%) are still confined to areas along and north of the Mountain
Parkway, but this data assumes a 10:1 snowfall ratio. This
particular event`s accumulations will likely be undercut by wet snow
ratios, and the probabilities produced using the NBM ensemble`s mean
ratios (5:1-3:1) drop to 20-40%. Thus, the greatest odds of
accumulating winter precipitation in this event will be in our
northernmost locales. The warm nose will reach places like the I-64
corridor last, and the overlap with the Monday morning commute could
result in minor winter weather impacts. So, we will continue to
monitor this set up over the coming days as the finer-scale
temperature profile details become more clear.

By Monday evening, the warm air advection regime will reach the
surface across the entire forecast area. This will transition all
precipitation back over to a plain, liquid rain. Portions of
Kentucky closer to the Ohio River may cool back down to near
freezing after sunset, but after that forecast temperatures are
poised to embark on a warming trend. The warm front responsible for
the above activity`s isentropic lift is forecast to stall out just
to the north of the forecast area early next week. That boundary
will then serve as the focal point for the precipitation chances
that linger through the rest of the period. The previously-discussed
northward trend within the past day`s forecast guidance has shifted
the greatest of these continued PoPs to the northern half of the
forecast area, with less precipitation expected in the downsloped
Cumberland Basin. Increasing model spread smooths the arrival time
of each shortwave disturbance, but with each passing one, the
stalled boundary gets pulled a little bit further to the north. This
allows for increasingly effective warm/moist air advection across
the commonwealth by midweek. Thus, temperatures are forecast to
rebound to well-above climatological averages by the end of the
period, and it is plausible for highs to approach the 70s by next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026

VFR TAFs are now prevailing across all sites now this this
morning`s fog has burned off. Under the regime of high pressure,
TAFs will be largely VFR through the period; however, river valley
fog may develop overnight and impact KLOZ, KSME and KSYM after 06Z
tonight through 15Z-ish Saturday morning. Otherwise, light and
variable winds are forecast through the 18Z issuance window.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VORST
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...VORST