Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

570
FXUS63 KJKL 031152
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
652 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures are expected today before a cooldown behind
  a passing weather system.

- Rain and snow is expected to develop this afternoon into this
  evening, with minor snow accumulations possible especially
  along and north of the Mountain Parkway.

- Regardless of whether snow or rain falls today through
  Wednesday, frozen surface and sub-surface conditions will result
  slick spots on untreated travel surfaces even when air
  temperatures are above freezing.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 603 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026

Made some minor updates to hourly temperatures this afternoon
through Wednesday that resulted in slight changes to forecast snow
accumulations. Otherwise, the changes were minor and were mainly
to freshen near-term hourly temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 355 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026

A mid-level shortwave moves east across the Ohio Valley today,
followed by an upper level trough Wednesday into Wednesday night.
These will bring potentially impactful weather to parts of
eastern Kentucky through much of the short-term period.

Initial concern for the late morning into the early afternoon today
will be a developing frontogenetic west-east band of snow along/near
the Ohio River this morning/afternoon. As of now, this band is
expected to stay north of Fleming County, but there is some
potential for the southern edge to graze parts of the far northern
CWA border area. As the shortwave and surface low cross the area
this evening, this band will begin to weaken as it moves east and
southeast across the northern part of the forecast area, with
further weakening of the precipitation as it moves into southeastern
Kentucky tonight.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for this afternoon and
evening along and north of the Interstate 64 corridor. Even if snow
accumulations do not quite reach the typical 1-inch criteria,
impacts are expected for the late afternoon and early evening
commute. Additionally, even with air temperatures likely to reach
the mid-30s, any precipitation (rain or snow) falling on frozen
ground, with sub-surfaces also below freezing (frost depth is 5
inches at the Jackson NWS office), will result in any
precipitation that falls likely freezing on any untreated travel
surfaces.

To the south of the Interstate 64 corridor, but generally along and
north of the Mountain Parkway, rain showers with above-freezing
temperatures will transition to snow and/or snow showers as the band
of snow associated with weakening frontogenesis moves southeast
along the immediate backside of the surface low/front. This area was
considered for a Winter Weather Advisory as well, but for now will
issue a Special Weather Statement and allow the day shift to analyze
the 12z model runs. Note that even here any precipitation that
falls, even with above-freezing air temperatures, is likely to
encounter frozen surface and sub-surface conditions, so travelers
should still expect slick spots, especially after dark, even with
air temperatures in the mid-30s.

To the south, precipitation will generally be weakening and showery
with a later transition to snow. Highs today in these areas are
likely to reach into the 40s, resulting in some surface melting, but
even here precipitation is likely to end with some snow and the
aforementioned associated slick spots given the recent prolonged
cold spell.

Another complicating factor in the forecast is that the GFS wants to
dry the dendritic growth zone fairly quickly this evening from the
west, with that drying trend continuing even as the upper trough
approaches Wednesday with additional light precipitation possible,
which would mean the potential for some light ice accumulations due
to drizzle/freezing drizzle or light freezing rain. Meanwhile, the
NAM, which shows a fairly broad area of light snow development
Wednesday into Wednesday night, indicates a saturated dendritic
growth zone just above the surface, and thus light accumulating
snow. Regardless, a broad area of chance PoPs has been included in
the grids for Wednesday into Wednesday night to account for either
light snow and/or ice accumulations, or some combination therein,
with minor impacts to travel possible. This may require issuance of
additional Special Weather Statements or a Winter Weather Advisory
with future forecast packages for parts of southeastern Kentucky.

.LONG TERM...(After midnight Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 652 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

An active weather pattern will remain in place over Eastern Kentucky
for the duration of the long term forecast period. The forecast area
will be positioned on the backside of the mean troughing over the
Eastern CONUS when the period opens on Wednesday night, with cold
northerly to northwesterly flow in place. A series of shortwave
disturbances will propagate through the resultant cyclonic flow
aloft as the period progresses and broader ridging builds into the
Plains this weekend. Forecast guidance generally depicts midlevel
height rises in the Ohio River Valley by the end of the period.
This points towards the potential for more substantial warming by
early next week, but in the mean time, a series of clipper-type
systems will result in oscillating sensible weather conditions in
the Commonwealth. Expect temperatures to fluctuate between below-
and near-normal conditions, with shots of cold air behind each
system and a period of temperature moderation out ahead of them.

In the wake of Wednesday`s system, cold northerly to northwesterly
flow will advect an arctic airmass into the forecast area.
Orographically-enhanced snow in the higher-terrain along the
Virginia state line is expected to taper off overnight as the parent
system pulls away and a drier/colder airmass moves into the forecast
area. Expect overnight lows to tank into the teens, with single
digit wind chills possible in the Bluegrass and in areas west of I-
75 on Thursday morning. Thursday`s forecast looks drier under the
influence of shortwave ridging, with partly cloudy skies allowing
afternoon highs to recover into the upper 20s/lower 30s. The related
surface high will quickly propagate off to the east throughout the
day, allowing low level flow to back towards the west during the day
and then the southwest overnight.

If skies are sufficiently clear around sunset on Thursday night,
ridges and valleys could decouple quickly. Some recent pieces of MOS
guidance were very aggressive with the radiational cooling in the
valleys, and if this persists, the forecast may need to trend in
that direction. For now, lows in the conventional cool spots were
bumped down into the teens before 06z on Thursday night. By Friday
morning, increasingly breezy southwesterly return flow will lead to
warming temperatures, and it is plausible that this portion of the
forecast period will follow a non-diurnal temperature curve.
Friday`s afternoon highs are forecast to surpass the freezing point
and warm into the 40s across the entire forecast area before the
next clipper system`s cold front gets dragged through the area on
Friday evening/night. Precipitation chances do increase ahead of
this frontal passage, but marginal thermal profiles and a lack of
deep moisture will likely limit the system`s accumulation potential.
As winds shift to the west/northwest and temperatures drop below
freezing overnight, a transition to snow is likely. Snow chances
will linger for the longest in far Eastern KY and on the NW-facing
slopes along the VA state line. Some minor accumulations appear
possible, especially in higher-elevation locales, but the latest
ensemble probabilities of >= 1 inch of snow accumulation with this
system remain less than 50%.

Cooler and drier weather returns on Saturday as a
continental/Canadian surface high nudges into the region to the
right of the building Great Plains ridge axis aloft. The overall
pattern favors the persistence of dry weather and gradual
temperature moderation beyond then, but some guidance is hinting at
the potential for another upper level disturbance to track through
the region in the Sunday-Monday time frame. Model spread increases
in this time frame, and PoPs remain below mentionable values in this
time frame with the latest NBM run. The evolution of this late-
period system bears watching, as it could briefly interrupt the
overarching warming trend expected in the extended-period forecast.
The CPC Days 6-10 and 8-14 Temperature Outlooks suggest that
temperatures across the commonwealth are poised to warm to above-
normal values by mid-February, a much-welcomed relief from the
prolonged cold that has plagued Kentucky as of late.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 617 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026

VFR conditions prevailed at the start of the period with the
stratus deck exiting east of the area, and thin mid- and high-
level clouds streaming across the area from the west. A weak
system is expected to bring rain and snow to the area later today
into Tuesday night, bringing the return of deteriorating flight
conditions. Fog/haze will also be a concern as a warmer and more
humid air mass moves over surfaces characterized by sub-freezing
temperatures and residual snow and ice from previous winter
weather events. Winds will be variable around 5 kts or less
through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to midnight EST
tonight for KYZ044-050>052.


&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...CMC