Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

596
FXUS63 KJKL 190955
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
455 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A dry cold front passing eastern KY early this morning will
  usher in a colder and drier airmass, with single digit lows
  expected for most places tonight.

- Apparent temperatures will be near five below for some location
  in northwest parts of the area late tonight prompting the
  issuance of a Cold Weather Advisory into Tuesday morning.

- Temperatures averaging 10 to 20 degrees below normal will be in
  place over the area through Tuesday night.

- The next chance for snow will come Wednesday night, although
  accumulation potential appears limited.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 455 AM EST MON JAN 19 2026

09Z sfc analysis shows cyclonic flow over eastern Kentucky well
south of deep low pressure currently centered north of Michigan.
Meanwhile a dry, but distinct, cold front moving into the state
from the northwest. This has led to mostly clear skies for much of
the area this night along with brisk southwest to west winds.
These winds have been gusting to between 20 and 25 mph over the
ridges and more open western terrain, at times - limiting the
effects of radiational cooling for those locations. Otherwise,
southwest winds of 10 mph or less are found in the valleys and
more sheltered spots. Currently, temperatures are running in the
mid 20s most locations. Meanwhile, dewpoints are generally in the
10 to 15 degree range.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in still in
pretty good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict Kentucky near the base of a very large
and dominant 5h trough covering much of North America. This keeps
fast mid level flow in place over our area through the period with
a zonal to slightly northwest tilt. Several relatively weak waves
of energy will pass over eastern Kentucky through mid week but no
significant perturbances are noted until much later in the week.
The continued small model spread again supported using the NBM as
the starting point of the forecast grids with some adjustments
needed to include more terrain details for temperatures tonight,
as well as beefing up the winds a bit this morning and again this
afternoon.

Sensible weather features a brisk and chilly start to the day with
a mix of clouds and sunshine on tap in the wake of a passing dry
cold front. This boundary serves to reinforce the cold cold air
over the region and keeps temperatures from reaching the 30 degree
mark to the northwest of Jackson while even in the far southeast
they barely top the freezing level. This will set the stage -
with a lessening of the winds tonight and clearer skies - for
temperatures most places to fall into the single digits - lowest
northwest along with some light wind flow. As a consequence,
apparent temperatures will fall to as low a 5 below for many
places in our northwest counties - warranting a Cold Weather
Advisory, this will be in effect from 10 pm tonight through 10 am
Tuesday morning. Look for another cold day, Tuesday, despite
ample sunshine with readings again struggling to hit 30 degrees
north of Jackson and just the lower 30s in the south. High
pressure departs to the southeast by Tuesday evening as the next
system starts to brew well to the west of the state.

The changes to the NBM starting point primarily consisted of
including more terrain details in for temperatures tonight along
with stronger winds accompanying the front passage early this
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 254 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026

The forecast period begins with cold surface high pressure
reinforced by northwesterly flow aloft. While the period starts dry,
CAA will favor well-below-average temperatures Tuesday. Forecast
highs are expected to range from the mid-20s in the Bluegrass to mid-
30s in the south. During the day, upper-level flow will shift from
northwesterly to westerly, becoming southwesterly by Wednesday
morning. This will begin to advect warmer air into the region
Tuesday night; however, mostly clear skies will allow for strong
radiational cooling, keeping lows in the low teens within sheltered
valleys and near 20 on ridgetops. Temperatures are expected to rise
late Tuesday night as southwesterly flow strengthens. This shift is
courtesy of a shortwave diving out of the Canadian Rockies. By
Wednesday morning, the associated trough and surface low will move
into the Great Lakes. Pre-frontal WAA will lead to highs reaching
the low to upper 40s. A cold front is progged to move through the
Commonwealth; thermal profiles appear supportive of an initial rain-
snow mix transitioning to all rain. As temperatures fall behind the
front, a transition back to a rain-snow mix is expected Wednesday
night into early Thursday morning. Little to no accumulation is
expected, and any snowfall will be slushy and confined mainly to
elevated surfaces. Confidence regarding moisture availability and
total snowfall remains low, as deterministic models and their
ensembles lack agreement. The GFS is trending colder, suggesting
more snowfall, while the ECMWF remains warmer and drier. The current
forecast represents a blend of these solutions, favoring a wintry
mix over a pure rain or snow event.

Thursday brings the return of weak surface high pressure that will
prevail through much of the period. Upper-level zonal flow will
allow daytime temperatures to range from the lower 30s to lower 40s
on Thursday, warming into the upper 30s to upper 40s by Friday.
Another pattern shift is forecast for the end of the period, with
the potential for wintry precipitation next weekend. Confidence is
low as models show significant run-to-run inconsistency, but a trend
is developing toward a more active pattern by the end of the week.

In summary, the period begins with well-below-average temperatures
under cold surface high pressure. An approaching cold front
associated with a clipper moving through the Great Lakes is expected
mid-week. Rain and a rain-snow mix with minimal accumulation are
expected through early Thursday before high pressure returns for the
remainder of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026

VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail through the
period, with the conditional threat for a few hours of borderline
MVFR cigs diminishing across the far north between around 12z and
16z Monday.

Light southwest winds generally around 3 to 7 kts initially this
evening will increase to near 10KT between 06Z and 12Z especially
for western terminals as a cold front approaches, with gusts into
the 20 to 25KT range during the day Monday along and behind the
cold front before beginning to diminish toward the end of the TAF
period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Tuesday for KYZ044-050>052-060-104-106.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...CMC