Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

056
FXUS63 KJKL 270709
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
309 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Humid and often wet weather will continue through mid week.

- Rain should become less prevalent late in the week as drier air
  arrives from the north.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1125 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026

A weakly unstable atmosphere remains across eastern Kentucky late
this evening with showers and thunderstorms continuing to develop.
A stationary front continues roughly along/parallel to the
Mountain Parkway. Additional shower and thunderstorm development
is possible overnight with a gradual downtick in activity.

Hourly PoPs and T/Tds have been updated through the remainder of
the overnight period, with not much in the way of any significant
changes in the overall forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 647 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026

Thunderstorms have been developing within an overall moderately
unstable environment with some backing of surface winds near a
boundary and instability gradient stretching west-east across the
northern half of the forecast area. We will be watching this
gradient and boundary closely for the potential for an isolated
brief spin-up tornado, but the overall threat is low (i.e., marginal)
for any severe weather.

Otherwise, hourly grids and updated PoPs were refreshed with the
latest model data through this evening, with little if any overall
change to the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 355 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026

As of mid afternoon, an upper level ridge was centered between
Bermuda and the Southeast coast while an upper low/disturbance
extended from the Ozarks to Lower OH Valley vicinity. Rather deep
southerly flow from the Gulf into the OH Valley and Southern
Appalachians was occurring. Well to the norht, an upper low was
centered in Quebec with a shortwave trough dropping across western
sections of Ontario. Further west, meanwhile, an upper level
trough was over much of the western Conus to Four Corners region
to portions of the Southern Plains. At the surface, a slow moving
boundary extended from the southern Delmarva vicinity to the OH
Valley and across northern portions of the CWA. Locally PW was
analyzed in the 1.75 to 1.9 inch range or roughly the 95th to 99th
percentile while sfc dewpoints were in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Steadier showers have shifted north of the area while heating of
the moist airmass has resulted in MLCAPE near 250 J/kg north to
around 1000 J/kg near Lake Cumberland while MUCAPE is roughly in
the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Mid level lapse rates are currently
rather meager with low level lapse rates 6.5 to 7C/km in the
southern portions of the area.

Through this evening, limited instability, MLCAPE of 500 to 1000
J/kg is anticipated through early evening with low level lapse
rates averaging about 6.5C/km. Effective bulk shear per SPC
mesoanalysis is anticipated in the 30 to 40 KT range effective and
0-1 and 0-3km SRH as high as 100 to 150 m2/s2. The marginal
instability combined with the shear may be sufficient for a
stronger storm or two with marginal supercell characteristics.
The last couple of HRRR runs have a 2-5km UH swath that runs from
near Madison County east into the CWA to the north of JKL. A
couple of damaging wind gusts are possible and an isolated
tornado cannot be completely ruled out. Following a potential
uptick in coverage of convection this evening following some
heating, a relative lull in activity may occur overnight before
potentially an increase toward dawn as a disturbance approaches
per guidance. The anticipated moist airmass and associated cloud
cover and precipitation chances will limit diurnal ranges from
today to tonight once again as the quasi stationary boundary
likely shifts a bit to the north overnight.

Wednesday and Wednesday night, the shortwave trough initially
rotating across sections of western Ontario will move into Quebec
and the Great Lakes eventually the Northeast to mid Atlantic
states through the end of the period. Meanwhile, a weaker
shortwave is expected to track across the Lower OH Valley region
on Wednesday. At the same time, the quasi stationary boundary
should settle back into eastern KY Wednesday night while the
boundary preceding the cold front sags toward the OH Valley. A
rather moist airmass will remain in place across the region with
PW at least in the 80th to 90th percentile or higher through
Wednesday. This should result in additional rounds of convection
though these chances should diminish in the north by late
Wednesday evening or Wednesday night. WPC has a slight risk of
excessive ERO across the north near the expected location of the
lingering boundary. The northern sections of the area have been
wettest over the past 3 or 4 days and would be most primed for
high water or flash flood issues. In coordination with surrounding
offices, have opted to go with a Flash Flood Watch near and north
of I-64 for Wednesday. A stronger storm is also possible near the
boundary as per SPC Day 2 convective outlook during the afternoon
to early evening pending heating/instability.

With the clouds and rather moist airmass in place, highs should
average near normal for Wednesday with once again a limited
diurnal range into Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026

In the days prior to Thursday, an area of low pressure over the
Ozarks will feature a stationary boundary oriented across Kentucky,
providing shower and storms chances to the area. With strong high
pressure off the Atlantic coastline this area of low pressure
struggles to progress eastward, eventually doing so Thursday.

The stationary boundary moves south through the area as a cold front
early Thursday. Winds become northerly for the remainder of the
extended forecast period. In addition to the post-frontal wind shift,
drier air and lower PWATs return to the area. An upper level
trough digs southeast from Eastern Canada through New England
Friday. Models continue to hint at a weak wave embedded within the
upper level flow aloft, upstream of the closed low moving across
the New England area. This may lead to isolated showers or
thunderstorm chances south of the Hal Rogers/KY-80 corridor,
Friday afternoon.

Saturday, an area of low pressure stalls south of the area in the
Tennessee region, a dry cold front is expected to dig south out of
the Ohio Valley from the closed low departing the New England area.
Eastern Kentucky may see some  showers and thunderstorms , mainly
south of I-64, most concentrated along the KY-TN stateline. With
high pressure building into the Ohio Valley Sunday and beyond,
rain and thunderstorm chances will slowly diminish each day with
isolated to scattered chances along the KY-TN stateline Sunday
afternoon.

Temperatures remain mild through next Tuesday, with highs and lows
near normal overall (mid to upper 70s for highs, upper 50s for
lows). Diminishing rain chances transition to a cooler and drier
regime towards the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026

Cloudy but mainly VFR conditions were reported across the JKL
forecast area at the start of the period. However, there were
some pockets of sub-VFR conditions present. Precipitation had
tapered off. Decreasing clouds are expected from west to east
overnight, but this could allow for fog and/or low cloud
development with IFR or worse conditions, especially where
significant rainfall occurred late Tuesday or during the night
(which is mainly northwest of a line from around Somerset to Sandy
Hook). Any fog or low clouds will dissipate on Wednesday morning,
leaving VFR conditions area wide for a time. As heating occurs
during the day, scattered showers/thunderstorms will probably
develop in the afternoon, but pinning down where/when is not
possible. A generalized PROB30 was used in TAFs for an extended
period to account for this. There is a higher probability of
showers/thunderstorms moving into the area from the north on
Wednesday night in association with a cold front. IFR conditions
are forecast to arrive from the north after frontal passage, but
confidence in this and its timing is not very high.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT this morning through late tonight for
KYZ044-050>052.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...HAL