Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

135
FXUS63 KJKL 270550 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
150 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong cold front brings widespread showers and the
  possibility of a few thunderstorms on Friday.

- Much colder air returns behind the cold front for the weekend,
  bringing the potential for widespread sub-freezing temperatures
  by Saturday morning.

- Significant warming takes place next week, with the potential
  for several consecutive days near or above 80 degrees for highs.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 120 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids
as well as a tinkering of the PoPs and thunder chances through
dawn per current radar and CAMs guidance. These minor adjustments
have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a
freshening of the SAFs and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Ridge-valley decoupling can be observed in this evening`s
observations across Southeastern Kentucky, and adjustments were
accordingly made to the forecast grids. Winds and gusts have been
bumped down in the sheltered valley locales, although tonight`s
minimum temperature forecast remains a bit ambiguous. Given the
persistence of some degree of low-level warm air advection ahead
of the approaching cold front front, it is unclear how far below
previous forecast lows the valleys will go. Some of the more
aggressive pieces of forecast guidance drop the typical cold spots
into the lower 50s, but given the dynamic nature of the frontal
passage and the potential for prefrontal activity to still mix
down wind gusts, the MinT grids were not significant altered just
yet. That being said, overnight valley lows could significantly
outperform previous expectations if localized cooling continues.

Otherwise, the previous forecast remains intact. A robust cold
front will sweep from north to south across the forecast area
tomorrow morning, with increasing clouds and increasing rain
chances in the north by sunrise. A few thunderstorms remain
possible along/north of the I-64 corridor around then, but given
the observed weakening trend with the upstream activity currently
located to the north of the Ohio River, this activity looks to
remain well below severe limits within the JKL CWA. Storm total
QPF has been trending downwards with this system in our forecast
area, with most areas now forecast to receive between 0.1 (south)
and 0.3 (north) inches of rain. This will provide some brief
reprieve from the fire weather concerns tomorrow, but a colder
airmass will move into the region via northerly flow in the wake
of the front. A freeze watch remains in effect for Friday night
into Saturday morning, but this colder airmass will also be
significantly drier. Expect critically dry humidity readings to
return by Saturday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 255 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026

A mix of sun and clouds remain across the region as earlier shower
activity has cleared the area to the east. Temperatures around
Eastern Kentucky have risen into the upper 70s and low 80s. This is
some 15-20 degrees above normal temperatures for this time of year.
Jackson is within a few degrees of its record high of 81 which was
established in 2007. Winds have gusted to 25-30 mph out of the
southwest and will remain elevated well into the overnight hours
before slowly diminishing.

As a surface low progresses away from the Great Lakes and into
Northern Quebec, a trailing cold front will extend southwest through
New England, the Great Lakes, and back through Mid-Mississippi
Valley. This cold front is expected to produce strong to severe
storms across the northern Ohio Valley before slowly progressing
southeast towards the Commonwealth overnight. With the cold front
moving into a less favorable environment for storms, the frontal
passage will be accompanied by mostly showers, with a few embedded
rumbles of thunder (nothing severe) and a decent drop in temperature
behind the front. This frontal passage looks to move into northern
portions of the CWA sometime early Friday morning, likely around
sunrise. With the environment remaining mixed through the night,
temperatures may stay elevated in the upper 50s to mid 60s ahead of
the approaching cold front.

These showers will move across the area from northwest to
southeast, with colder and drier air working into the region
behind the front. While not as strong as some of the previous cold
fronts Eastern Kentucky has seen, this one will still drop
temperatures through the morning and afternoon. High temperatures
ranging fro the low 50s in the north to upper 60s further south
will likely occur early in the morning. By 18Z (2 PM EDT),
temperatures may range from the mid to upper 40s across the I- 64
corridor and low 50s to mid 60s south. The area will generally see
0.25 to 0.50 inches of rainfall through Friday.

Friday evening, temperatures continue to cool on the back end of a
trough, with much of the area either in the upper 20s to low 30s. A
Freeze Watch has been issued for Friday evening through Saturday
morning to account for sub-freezing temperatures in the growing
season. Any crops or sensitive vegetation left outside, such as
strawberries could be at risk. Temperatures could also possibly
damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 209 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026

Aloft, a strong yet low-amplitude ridge builds in from the east
through early next week, with west-southwesterly flow over the
region through the middle of next week as the ridge then strengthens
over the western Atlantic. At the surface, high pressure moves east-
southeast across the area during the day Saturday, with
southwesterly surface winds developing by Sunday as low pressure
becomes established on the Central Great Plains but moves little
through much of the next week. A series of warm fronts will push
across the area, with the first overnight Saturday night, followed
by additional surges of warmer and more humid air northeast,
especially west of the Cumberland Plateau.

After a chilly Saturday, temperatures begin a significant upwards
trend through mid-week (and possibly beyond), with some uncertainty
for the second half of next week with the possible arrival of a cold
front, though this is extremely low confidence. Temperatures will be
as much as 15 to 20 degrees for much of the early to mid-week
period, with highs in the 80s likely by Tuesday and continuing
through at least the middle of next week.

Dry conditions are expected this weekend, with north to northeast
winds Saturday, and continued low humidity into Sunday as winds veer
around to the southwest. Humidity likely modifies significantly
Monday as a warm front moves northeast across the region, and this
will result in the introduction of the chance of showers and storms,
especially toward the Ohio River. This front may stall and allow for
showers and thunderstorm activity to persist into early Tuesday, but
the region likely returns to dry weather for a time Tuesday into
Wednesday before PoPs return to the 20 to 40 percent range again for
the middle of next week as shortwaves graze the Ohio River Valley on
the northwest side of strong downstream upper ridging over the
western Atlantic.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026

VFR conditions are holding early this morning across the forecast
area, with breezy west-southwesterly winds observed at most of the
terminals. LLWS is likely ongoing at the airports, as well, from
the southwest at up to 45 kts. This shear will come to an end as
a cold front shifts south through the region later this morning.
Its passage will bring about a sharp shift towards sustained
northerly winds, as well as lowering ceilings and visibilities
within rain showers associated with the boundary, as flight
categories progressively drop to MVFR then IFR this morning. The
greatest visibility reductions will be in any stronger frontally-
forced showers or storms, although the probability of thunder is
too low to warrant an explicit TAF mention, at this time. A few
showers will probably linger behind the front into mid afternoon
for the forecast area, today with MVFR to IFR conditions, but a
clearing trend then takes place from northwest to southeast by
the end of the day.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083-104-106>117-119.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...MARCUS/GREIF