Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

312
FXUS63 KJKL 281730
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1230 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures will persist through tonight, before
  a modest cool down for Sunday and Monday behind a cold front.

- After low chances (20 to 30%) for measurable rain behind the
  cold front late tonight and early on Sunday, there is greater
  potential for more widespread precipitation at times next week.

- There is a potential for a wintery mix in more northern
  locations late Sunday night and Monday, but at this time, any
  accumulations look to be light.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1227 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2026

No major changes with this update aside from loading in the latest
obs and adjusting through the diurnal curve through the afternoon.
Grids have been saved and sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 535 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026

Early this morning, an upper level low was centered in the northeastern
portion of Hudson Bay with a trough across Ontario and the Great
Lakes to the OH Valley and Southeast. Meanwhile an upper level
ridge was centered east of Baja with the ridging extending north
along the west Coast of the Conus while to the west an upper low
over the eastern Pacific. Northwest flow was prevalent from the
Gulf of AK across western Canada and the international border to
the Great Lakes to the west of the trough axis. Also moving
within the trough was a shortwave that extended from James Bay to
the eastern Great Lakes. At the surface, an area of low pressure
was centered southeast of James Bay with a cold front/baroclinic
zone into the eastern Great Lakes to Lower OH Valley to Central
Plains and then northwest to MT. A ridge of sfc high pressure was
departing to the southeast and was centered over the vicinity of
the Blue Ridge. The front is rather moisture starved with southern
extent and clear skies and light winds under high pressure in
valley locations has allowed temperatures to drop to the upper 20s
to low 30s. Temperatures elsewhere ranged through the 30s to the
mid or even upper 40s in the thermal belt locations such as the
Pike County Mesonet station which is currently 48.

The upper level trough will remain from the James Bay vicinity
south into parts of the central and eastern Conus to southeast
through the weekend. A dry cold front will sag into northern KY
today and then as a disturbance moving through the trough
interacts with the baroclinic zone and an associated sfc wave
moves from the mid MS Valley to the OH Valley the boundary will
sag further into eastern KY tonight, eventually dropping across
eastern TN and the Southern Appalachians Sunday. Moisture will be
limited with this system, but enough saturation may occur in the
low to mid levels for patchy light rain or isolated to scattered
showers may occur late tonight to early on Sunday, generally north
of a Rockcastle to Pike County line. Any measurable rainfall
would be a couple of hundredths at best.

Southwest to west flow between the departing high to the
southeast of the area and the approaching front will allow for
temperatures to warm even higher compared to Friday with highs
expected to range through the 60s to around 70 in the lower
elevations downwind of VA border where a bit of extra warming may
occur on modest downslope component in the low level flow. The
mild temperatures and drier airmass brought into the area by the
sfc high that only gradually becomes more moist by late afternoon
should result in min afternoon rh in the 28 to 45% range. After
any early morning showers or spotty light rain in the southeast,
rain free weather is expected for Sunday as a sfc high moving into
the Great Lakes noses into eastern KY. A more substantial system
approaches in the start of the long term period.

.LONG TERM...(After midnight Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 722 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

The forecast becomes more active in the long term period, starting
with a marginal winter weather set up and ending in much warmer-than-
normal temperatures. A series of shortwave impulses amidst a
persistent regime of quasi-zonal flow aloft will push a warm front
north across the Ohio River Valley early in the week. This
progressively produces more potent warm air advection and moisture
return processes, and spring/summer-esque convection appears
possible in Eastern Kentucky by the end of the period. However, the
forecast area will be positioned on the cold side of this boundary
when the period opens on Sunday night.

Confidence is high that northerly surface winds associated with a
Canadian high pressure system centered over the Great Lakes will
advect a shallow layer of sub-freezing air into the northern half of
the forecast area. Probabilistic ensemble data supports this notion,
with a 60-90% chance of overnight lows below 32 degrees in locations
north of a line stretching from Mount Vernon to Jackson to
Prestonsburg. If isentropically-forced precipitation arrives while
these cold temperatures are in place, the modeled atmospheric
temperature profiles will be cold enough to support snow in this
corridor. Given the warm and mostly sunny conditions forecast across
the area during the short term period, ground/pavement temperatures
will likely be above freezing leading into the event. This will
limit accumulation potential, as will the approach of the boundary`s
warm air advection regime.

Confidence is also high that afternoon highs on Monday will rise
well above the freezing point. In fact, the NBM ensemble
probabilities of MaxTs greater than 40 degrees are above 90% area-
wide, even in our higher-terrain locales. This gives credence to the
notion that any precipitation that occurs on Monday afternoon (and
beyond) will fall in the form of a plain, liquid rain.

The forecast guidance suite continues to disagree upon when the
precipitation associated with this frontal boundary`s isentropic
upglide will arrive here in Eastern Kentucky. The European guidance
has trended slower/warmer/wetter, whereas the GFS camp of solutions
is quicker/colder/icier. Warm air will arrive faster aloft, and this
creates a "warm nose" temperature profile within the currently
available forecast model soundings (GFS/NAM). When this combination
of freezing surface temperatures and an inversion of relatively
warmer air aloft appears together, concerns for mixed precipitation
types enter the forecast. This particular warm nose does not look
especially vigorous, and there remains quite a bit of spread in the
corresponding dewpoint temperature profiles. Thus, the latent heat
absorbed from any evaporative wetbulbing and melting processes would
lead to a localized cooling effect and reduce the magnitude of the
warm nose. A brief period of freezing rain cannot be ruled out as
the favored precipitation type changes from frozen snowflakes to
liquid rain by midday Monday, but a rain/snow mix looks to be the
most probable solution.

The LREF Grand Ensemble probabilities for at least a glaze (0.01) of
freezing rain continue to hover in the 20-30% range, whereas the
probability of measurable snowfall (>=0.1 inches) in both the NBM
and LREF ensembles has increased to 40-60% along/north of the
Mountain Parkway corridor. These snow probabilities drop off
significantly for accumulation thresholds above 0.5 inches, and
event total accumulations will likely be undercut by the wet snow
ratios and mixed p-types. The current snow accumulation grids are
likely overdone, but the odds of winter precipitation accumulations
generally increase the further north one goes in the forecast area.
The primary concern is for slushy accumulations or a light glaze of
ice to overlap with the Monday morning commute. WPC currently
highlights a 20-30% chance of winter travel impacts in Kentucky,
which reinforces the idea that this is a low-probability but
potentially impactful event. So, despite the marginal nature of this
set up, we will be closely monitoring the higher-resolution CAMs and
HREF ensemble data as this event enters their temporal range today.

Once the warm air advection regime spreads to the surface across the
entire forecast area by Monday afternoon, the pattern transitions to
a wetter and warmer one. The warm front responsible for the above
activity`s isentropic lift is forecast to stall out just to the
north of the forecast area early next week. That boundary will then
serve as the focal point for the precipitation chances that linger
through the rest of the period. Increasing model spread smooths the
arrival time of each shortwave disturbance, but with each passing
one, the stalled boundary gets pulled a little bit further to the
north. This allows for increasingly effective warm/moist air
advection amidst a prolonged period of southerly to southwesterly
flow. Temperatures are forecast to rebound to well-above
climatological averages by midweek, with highs potentially climbing
into the upper 60s and 70s and lows 15-25 degrees warmer than they
were at the start of the period. Thus, the precipitation that falls
on Tuesday and beyond will come in the form of rain showers.
Thunderstorms cannot be ruled out in the latter stages of the work
week, which is appropriate given that the first week of March is
Severe Weather Awareness Week here in Kentucky. Interests are
accordingly encouraged to check www.weather.gov/wrn/spring-campaign-
sm-plan and to monitor the NWS Jackson KY social media platforms for
themed thunderstorm safety information graphics each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2026

VFR conditions are prevailing with this TAF issuance. This will
persist through much of the afternoon; however, overnight tonight
increasing and lowering CIGS is anticipated as a system moves
through the Ohio Valley. CIGS are forecast to dip into low-end
VFR/high end MVFR after 12Z but quickly improving back to VFR
by 17Z. Isolated showers may be possible but confidence on
placement was lacking; therefore, PoP chances were omitted from
all TAF sites. Winds are forecast to be light and variable through
the period but will pick up toward the end of the period with the
passing disturbance.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VORST
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...VORST