Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

956
FXUS63 KJKL 311205 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
805 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty southwesterly winds between 25 and 35 mph are expected
  across eastern Kentucky today.

- These winds will advect an increasingly warm, moist airmass into
  the region. Expect several consecutive days with highs in the
  70s to lower 80s, and mild overnight lows in the 50s and 60s.

- After a weak passing disturbance yields isolated rain chances
  today, a more active weather pattern sets up for the second
  half of the week. Expect daily chances for showers and storms
  through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 730 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 455 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026

08Z sfc analysis shows a decent pressure gradient through Kentucky
between high pressure off the Southeast Coast and low pressure
over the Great Plains. This is helping to keep boundary layer
southwest flow through the area while most of the night has been
cloud free. The winds did manage to keep the bulk of the area well
mixed through the night, but a few of the most sheltered spots did
see temperatures fall to near the dewpoint. Specifically,
temperatures currently range from some isolated mid to upper 40s
in the southeastern sheltered spots to the lower 60s on ridges
the more open terrain. Meanwhile, amid those south to southwest
winds of 5 to 10 mph - with some higher gusts, dewpoints have
climbed into the upper 40s to mid 50s most places.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are exhibiting
good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict mid level flow over Kentucky becoming
more southwesterly in time - between broad 5h troughing north of
the Great Lakes and ridging through Florida and the eastern Gulf.
Within this flow, the better looking impulses will pass north of
the Ohio River today and tonight. Wednesday will feature slight
height rises to the southeast of Kentucky tilting the mid-level
pattern even sharper southwesterly as more energy brushes by to
the north. The still aligned model solutions through the short
term portion of the forecast, supported the NBM as a reasonable
starting point for the grids. The main adjustments made to this
initialization were to incorporate more in the way of details from
the latest higher resolution CAMs for PoPs and thunder chances
into those grids through Wednesday afternoon.

Sensible weather features a warm and moist airmass now in place
for eastern Kentucky south of a warm front from a slowly
approaching area of low pressure and on the western fringes of a
Bermuda High. This will keep some small chance for mainly just
sprinkles in the forecast today and tonight before better
potential occurs into Wednesday afternoon with some air mass
thunderstorms possible. Do believe that the NBM is a bit overdone
with the high PoPs for Wednesday afternoon, so have trimmed them
back a bit via the incorporation of the CAMs guidance. Even in the
wet NBM, the QPF is rather paltry lending support for the idea of
less widespread and impactful convection. Temperatures will be
uniformly warm today and Wednesday with mild and rather uniform
readings through the night. Although most places stay dry into
Wednesday morning, the increase in humidity will lessen the fire
weather concerns.

The changes to the NBM starting point primarily consisted of
including more details in the PoPs grids on account of the latest
CAMs guidance today through Wednesday afternoon. In this
moistened environment, temperatures and dewpoints were mostly
kept as populated from the NBM.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 603 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026

The models have remained in good agreement in the extended portion
of the forecast, with amplified flow continuing across the CONUS
through early next week. Troughing will be established west of
the Mississippi River for the middle of the week, as rounds of
energy move in from the eastern Pacific. A closed low will swing
from the Pacific Northwest to the Upper Midwest by early this
weekend, before transitioning to more of an open wave as it moves
east across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys by Sunday. Troughing
will then hang on in the East through early next week, gradually
dampening with time.

Eastern Kentucky will remain firmly in the warm sector through
early this weekend, with temperatures averaging between 15 and 20
degrees above normal through the period. Highs will be in the low
to mid 80s each day, with lows in the 50s and 60s. Ridge/valley
splits will occur Wednesday and Thursday nights. Model guidance
continues to trend leaner on PoPs through this time, as better
forcing remains more aligned to our northwest, despite ample
moisture in place. PoPs will generally follow more of a diurnal
trend each day through Saturday, with Thursday being the driest
day overall. Still, blended guidance tends to overestimate these
weaker forcing regimes, so PoPs may still be a bit generous at
times. The main cold front will approach and move through the area
Saturday night into Sunday, bringing out best chance of a more
widespread beneficial rainfall. Rain chances will then decrease
Sunday night into Monday as the front and deeper moisture exit to
our east. Temperatures will also cool back to closer to normal
readings for early April.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026

Mainly just some occasional high clouds will be noted through the
area into late morning. Winds, generally, will be southwest at 5
to 10 mph through 14Z, but the persistence of stronger southwest
winds aloft will mean LLWS at up to 45 kts for another hour or so.
Those winds will mix down effectively later this morning, leading
to renewed surface gustiness of up to 25 or 30 kts, along with
sufficient diurnal heating for a healthy cu field to develop and
some sprinkles to fall. The gusty winds settle this evening but
that will just allow more in the way of LLWS to set up again
tonight from the southwest at up to 40 kts.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...GREIF