Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

057
FXUS63 KJKL 192000
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
300 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- With a colder and drier airmass in place, single digit lows are
  expected in most places tonight.

- Apparent temperatures will approach five below zero for some
  locales in the Bluegrass tonight, and a Cold Weather Advisory
  remains in effect for that area into Tuesday morning.

- Temperatures averaging 10 to 20 degrees below normal remain in
  the forecast through Tuesday night.

- There is a chance for light precipitation on Wednesday and
  Wednesday night.

- A potentially significant storm system could yield impactful
  snow accumulations this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1050 AM EST MON JAN 19 2026

A cold front continues to move east across eastern KY this
morning and per mesoanalysis appears to currently extend from
eastern OH to near JKL to near the K1A6. Some low clouds are
occurring near the boundary with bases near the top of the mixed
layer, likely aided by daytime heating of the rather cold
airmass. Analysis of 850 mb temperatures suggests values on the
order of -11C in the south to about -14C at present. 850 mb
temperatures are progged to cool another degree or two through the
day. The colder and in particularly drier air will advect into
the region behind the front as high pressure in the Central
Conus/Plains builds into the OH Valley. Dewpoints should drop into
single digits to around 0F today as the drier airmass advects in.
Temperatures will struggle to climb out of the 20s in the north
and more than a couple of degrees above freezing in the south. The
sfc high building in along with the cold, dry airmass will set
the stage for rather cold lows tonight. Some more open terrain
locations and ridgetops should remain more mixy with apparent
temperatures falling to as low as near 0F if not below 0F in some
instances.

UPDATE Issued at 700 AM EST MON JAN 19 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 455 AM EST MON JAN 19 2026

09Z sfc analysis shows cyclonic flow over eastern Kentucky well
south of deep low pressure currently centered north of Michigan.
Meanwhile a dry, but distinct, cold front moving into the state
from the northwest. This has led to mostly clear skies for much of
the area this night along with brisk southwest to west winds.
These winds have been gusting to between 20 and 25 mph over the
ridges and more open western terrain, at times - limiting the
effects of radiational cooling for those locations. Otherwise,
southwest winds of 10 mph or less are found in the valleys and
more sheltered spots. Currently, temperatures are running in the
mid 20s most locations. Meanwhile, dewpoints are generally in the
10 to 15 degree range.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in still in
pretty good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict Kentucky near the base of a very large
and dominant 5h trough covering much of North America. This keeps
fast mid level flow in place over our area through the period with
a zonal to slightly northwest tilt. Several relatively weak waves
of energy will pass over eastern Kentucky through mid week but no
significant perturbances are noted until much later in the week.
The continued small model spread again supported using the NBM as
the starting point of the forecast grids with some adjustments
needed to include more terrain details for temperatures tonight,
as well as beefing up the winds a bit this morning and again this
afternoon.

Sensible weather features a brisk and chilly start to the day with
a mix of clouds and sunshine on tap in the wake of a passing dry
cold front. This boundary serves to reinforce the cold cold air
over the region and keeps temperatures from reaching the 30 degree
mark to the northwest of Jackson while even in the far southeast
they barely top the freezing level. This will set the stage -
with a lessening of the winds tonight and clearer skies - for
temperatures most places to fall into the single digits - lowest
northwest along with some light wind flow. As a consequence,
apparent temperatures will fall to as low a 5 below for many
places in our northwest counties - warranting a Cold Weather
Advisory, this will be in effect from 10 pm tonight through 10 am
Tuesday morning. Look for another cold day, Tuesday, despite
ample sunshine with readings again struggling to hit 30 degrees
north of Jackson and just the lower 30s in the south. High
pressure departs to the southeast by Tuesday evening as the next
system starts to brew well to the west of the state.

The changes to the NBM starting point primarily consisted of
including more terrain details in for temperatures tonight along
with stronger winds accompanying the front passage early this
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM EST MON JAN 19 2026

Before the period starts, a clipper system is forecast to quickly
eject eastward out of the Canadian Rockies toward the Great Lakes.
By the time the forecast period begins, this feature is already
moving into the Great Lakes with a warm front oriented across the
Ohio Valley and a trailing cold front moving into the region.
Nonetheless, beginning Wednesday morning, WWA behind the warm front
will be ushering higher temperatures into the region. This will push
daytime highs into the low to upper-40s with a handful of places
reaching the low-50s.

Along with the warming temperatures, a pre-frontal LLJ will move
into the region Wednesday morning. Breezy southwesterly winds can be
expected ahead of the cold front, and wind gusts around 20 to 25 mph
are anticipated through Wednesday evening. The cold front will
quickly track eastward through the day. By Wednesday evening,
increasing PoP is anticipated, but deterministic guidance continues
to be lean on available moisture; therefore, PoP will largely be
capped around 30 percent through FROPA on Thursday morning. Lastly,
deterministic and ensemble-based thermal profiles suggest that
precipitation will be mostly rain through FROPA; however, a few
backside snow showers cannot be ruled out as temperatures dip below
freezing.

Weak surface high pressure is forecast to build back into the area
for Thursday behind the departing cold front. However, as another
shortwave perturbation moves around a 492 decameter closed
circulation, a dry cold front is forecast to move through the area
during the day Friday. This will provide a shot of cold air for
Thursday night into Friday, as overnight lows Thursday are expected
to fall into the upper-teens to mid-20s. Highs Friday are expected
to range from the upper-20s to upper-30s. Behind the departing cold
front, an anomalously cold Arctic high pressure center is expected
to dive southeast into the CONUS, bringing widespread well-below
average temperatures for Friday night and Saturday. Lows Friday are
forecast to be in the upper single digits to low teens with very
little improvement, as highs on Saturday will be in the mid-teens to
mid-20s.

At the same time, an upper-level perturbation is forecast to move
out of the Desert Southwest and across the CONUS beginning Friday
and persisting through the weekend. There is a lot of uncertainty
regarding this system and its eastward progression. However,
confidence is increasing that this system will move off the southern
Rockies into the southern Plains, bringing wintry weather to Texas
and Oklahoma before tracking eastward. As mentioned above, there is
still a great amount of uncertainty, but the general trend suggests
this feature will move across the CONUS through the weekend.
Locally, snow is forecast to begin Saturday and come to an end late
Sunday night. Accumulating snow will be possible; HOWEVER, both
spatial and temporal factors remain uncertain. Caution should be
taken regarding social media posts concerning snowfall totals
through the end of the weekend. Nonetheless, the forecast window
will close with very cold surface high pressure returning to the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 105 PM EST MON JAN 19 2026

Some clouds in the lower end of the VFR range lingered at
issuance time, with VFR reported areawide. A dry cold front is
gradually crossing the easternmost portions of the CWA, with
northwest winds reported at a few of the more southeastern
locations, sustained near 10KT with gusts to around 20KT. Further
west, winds averaged between southwest and west at 10 to 15KT
with gusts to around 25KT. The low clouds should gradually mix
out/diminish through the first couple hours of the period, with
VFR prevailing through the end of the period, as mainly just some
high clouds pass from time to time. Westerly winds are expected
to prevail during the first 6 hours of the period, remaining in
the 10 to 15KT range, with gusts up to 25KT, before diminishing
towards 00Z as high pressure builds into the region. Winds should
then trend to less than 10KT areawide between 00Z and 06Z, with
generally light winds prevailing through the rest of the TAF
period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Tuesday for KYZ044-050>052-060-104-106.


&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...JP