Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

287
FXUS63 KJKL 061144 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
744 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and drier air arrives and settles in through the first
  half of the week.

- A Frost Advisory remains in effect through 10 AM EDT this morning.

- Frost is also possible tonight and Tuesday night, with a few of
  the normally colder and sheltered valley locations likely
  experiencing a freeze tonight and/or Tuesday night.

- Temperatures climb to 10 to 15 degrees above normal by Friday
  and Saturday and potentially near 20 degrees above normal on
  Sunday, with mainly rain-free weather expected.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 745 AM EDT MON APR 6 2026

Hourly grids were updated for recent satellite and observation
trends. This led to some minor adjustments to hourly temperatures
with the main change to include a bit of fog in the river valleys
over the next couple of hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 425 AM EDT MON APR 6 2026

Early this morning, a mid and upper level trough extended from
eastern Canada south across the Great Lakes to the OH Valley to
the Southern Appalachians and Southeast while an upper level ridge
extended from the Southern Rockies/Four Corners region to the
Northern Rockies to near the BC/Alberta border area. Further to
the west an upper trough was nearing the CA Coast/southwest Conus
with an upper low and trough nearing the BC coast to Pacific
Northwest. Meanwhile, a shortwave is currently moving across the
St Lawrence Valley to eastern Great Lakes region, with a second
one nearing the western Great Lakes, and yet another extending
from western Ontario to the Upper MS Valley vicinity. At the
surface, a clipper system was tracking across the Great Lakes
region with a trailing moisture starved cold front extending to
the mid MS Valley to the Central Plains to the interior Northwest.
A ridge of sfc high pressure extends from the Southern Plains to
the Commonwealth while another, stronger sfc high was centered
over Saskatchewan and extended into sections of the Northern
Plains. A few low clouds linger southeast of eastern KY in
portions of SW VA while mainly just some cirrus was passing across
the southern sections of the area. Temperatures in the more low
lying areas and valleys as well as elevations above 2500 feet have
dropped off into the mid to upper 30s while coalfield ridges and
more open terrain locations lingered around 40 or the lower 40s.

Early this morning, temperatures should drop to the lower 30s in
the low lying areas and valleys and some frost should form and the
Frost Advisory remains valid as the sfc ridge of high pressure
gradually shifts to the south. Otherwise, as the shortwaves
rotated through the upper troughing and across the Great Lakes
region the clipper should track to the mid Atlantic states with
the trailing moisture starved cold front sagging across the OH
Valley and into the Appalachians and TN Valley by this evening.
This front will bring an increase in winds after the nocturnal
inversion mixes out with initial winds from the west to
northwest, becoming more northwest behind the boundary. Gusts as
high as 20 to 25 mph are anticipated from around midday into the
afternoon. Temperatures trend to near normal for early April today
with plenty of solar insolation anticipated. The axis of the mid
to upper level trough should gradually shift east of eastern Ky
through tonight though 500 mb height should change little as weak
mid to upper ridging moves into parts of the Central Conus and the
shortwave trough that is currently nearing the CA coast moves to
the Four Corners/Southern Rockies region. For Tuesday, the weak
ridging moves to near the MS Valley region as the shortwave
trough enters the Plains. As this occurs, the sfc high should
build across the Upper MS Valley and into the Great Lakes to OH
Valley and Central to Southern Appalachians including eastern KY.

The high should bring slackening winds tonight behind the boundary
with mostly clear to clear skies and with drier air also being
ushered in, frost formation is again probable for valleys and low
lying areas especially. Some of the normally colder locations may
experience a freeze. Another headline will be needed for tonight
once the current one expires. Highs on Tuesday will trend to
around 10 degrees below normal under the colder and drier airmass.
Low minimum humidities are expected. This dry airmass with high
pressure dominating will set the stage for one final seasonably
cold night, especially for eastern and southeastern valleys
Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 438 AM EDT MON APR 6 2026

The upper level ridging should shift into the eastern Conus at
midweek with a general trend of rising 500 mb heights for Tuesday
night through Wednesday evening. At the same time, the center of
the sfc high should shift into the mid Atlantic and eventually
across the Northeast and into the Atlantic through ridging should
continue to extend southwest into the Appalachians and Southeast.
By this point, the upper trough that will have moved into the
Plains by late Tuesday should move to the Lower MS Valley while
the upper low that is currently nearing the BC coast to Northwest
will have move across western Canada and portions of the
Northwest and Northern Rockies and into western Ontario to the
upper MS Valley and near the western Great Lakes by late Wednesday
night. A sfc low associated with that system should reach Ontario
by dawn on Thursday with the trialing frontal zone extending
across the Great Lakes to near the TX/OK panhandle area and then
into the western Conus.

After some height falls late Wednesday night, guidance generally
agrees in a trend in rising 500 mb heights for Thursday into the
day on Friday as upper ridging extends from the Southeast to mid
Atlantic coast to east of the Northeast coast. This will occur
as an upper low tracks around the ridging into Ontario and Quebec
upper troughing remains over the Central Conus. This upper trough
or shortwaves moving through it may near the Lower OH Valley by
later Friday with these crossing the area to end the week.
Meanwhile by the end of the week, guidance generally has upper
ridging taking shape from the GUlf into the Central Conus/MS
Valley with that ridging shifting across the Commonwealth,
Southeast, Central to Southern Appalachians and Western to Central
Great Lakes to end the period. Another period of height rises is
expected again from later Saturday to Sunday with this occurring
downstream of upper troughing evolving over the western Conus that
approaches the Central Conus to end the weekend.

Although the sfc frontal zone may sag to near the OH River Friday
night to early Saturday, at this point, eastern KY is expected to
remain in the warm sector with the boundary lifting back north as
the weekend progresses. This boundary and passing disturbances may
allow for a stray shower or storm in the north Friday afternoon or
Saturday afternoon, but the long term period should be mainly rain
free for the region.

Another night with a potential freeze for eastern and southeastern
valleys is anticipated for Tuesday night and an additional
headline may eventually be needed for eastern portions of the CWA.
Otherwise, winds should become more southeasterly to southerly
and result in a return to temperatures above normal. This flow
will have a downslope component off of the higher terrain of SW VA
and eastern TN and despite the increase in temperatures, the
airmass will moisten more slowly another day of low humidities is
anticipated. This trend should continue into Thursday with an
additional afternoon with low humidity as well as temperatures
climb a few degrees and the downslope component remains.

Temperatures in the warm sector should continue a climb further
into the 70s for Friday or nearly 10 degrees above normal. Highs
rising into the 80s are probable with the building ridge and the
area remaining in the warm sector fr the weekend. Highs may reach
20 degrees above normal by Sunday. Additional ridge/valley
temperature splits are also probable for Wed night to Saturday
night with valleys potentially falling to upper 30s for Wed night,
to around 40 Thu night, and the 40s for Fri night and Sat night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT MON APR 6 2026

Other than some initial MVFR and IFR reductions and in some cases
locally reductions in valley fog, VFR conditions are expected to
prevail. Initially there will be some passing high clouds and
then a few low level clouds are anticipated as high pressure
shifts south of the area, and a moisture starved cold front sags
across eastern KY between about 16Z and 00Z. After light and
variable winds to begin the period, winds will pick up between
through 18Z to the 5 to 14KT range from west to northwest, with
winds becoming northwest areawide with gusts to around 20KT near
and behind the front. No ceilings are forecast during the period
and winds will slacken again during the 23Z to 04Z period with
VFR continuing as another sfc high builds in from the upper MS
Valley.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP