Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

673
FXUS63 KJKL 220117 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
917 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers or perhaps a stray storm remain possible near
  the TN border through around midnight.

- Record or near record highs are anticipated for Sunday along
  with gusty winds to at least the 20 to 30 mph range in the
  afternoon to evening are anticipated ahead of a cold front.

- A well-defined and rather strong cold front on Sunday night will
  bring more widespread shower and thunderstorm chances along with
  a noticeable cooldown. Strong to severe storms are possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026

Temperatures in more sheltered valleys, especially eastern
valleys were dropping off more quickly than the previous
forecast. Adjustments downward for those areas were made to both
hourly T and min T based on afternoon mixed dewpoints to allow for
a higher magnitude ridge/valley temperature split. The more
eastern sheltered cold spot locations may reach the upper 40s
overnight. Recent HRRR runs had higher gusts and as to some extent
ConsShort from once the nocturnal inversion mixes out between 10
AM and Noon on Sunday through early in the evening. BUFKIT
momentum transfer from the GFS was also higher than the previous
forecast. Opted to nudge sustained winds and gusts, particularly
in the more open terrain upward for Sunday in the warm sector with
extensive prescribed/controlled burning ongoing across eastern
KY. Most of the late winter systems have been windier and gustier
than NBM deterministic during peak heating/mixing and there no
reason to believe that anything will be different on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 345 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026

As the area sees a mix of sun and clouds through the remainder of
the afternoon, a few showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop in the far south, bordering Kentucky and Tennessee. This is
due to a decaying stalled boundary in the vicinity. Field observations
along with satellite observations indicate that some high-based
altocumulus along with some Altocumulus Castellanus have formed
across southern portions of the area. Some hazy conditions may also
be observed from nearby prescribed fires ongoing. Any showers and
thunderstorms that do develop generally remain along and south of
the Hal Rogers/Kentucky Highway-80 corridor, tapering off by
midnight. Temperatures have warmed into the mid to upper 70s across
much of the area, with Kentucky Mesonet sites in Letcher and Owsley
cracking 80. This evening, weak ridge valley splits are expected
across eastern valleys and hollows, where temperatures could cool
into the mid to upper 50s. Elsewhere, along ridgetops and further
west valleys, lows in the upper 50s to low 60s are forecasted.

Sunday, warm air advects into the area, with temperatures
approaching record highs in the low to mid 80s. Some areas may
approach upper 80s. In fact, the NBMs 25th and 75th percentile for
high temperatures tomorrow at Jackson, range from 83 to 87 degrees.
Current forecasted temperatures may be adjusted upward in subsequent
updates. Southwest winds may gust as high as 15-25 mph during the
afternoon. A low pressure over the Great Lakes will feature a
trailing cold front, across the Ohio Valley. This trailing cold
front will sag south as it progresses east through the day. Rain
chances increase steadily after sunset, or 8PM, across the north,
with showers and scattered thunderstorms likely after midnight. These
storms could be strong to severe, with damaging winds as the primary
threat. Though sub-severe hail (under 1 inch in diameter) could also
occur out of these storms. The Storm Prediction Center has most of
the area north of I-64 in a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for severe
weather, while ares front I-64 south to London, Hazard, and
Pikeville are in a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for severe weather.
Areas south of the marginal risk can expect general, non-severe
thunderstorms. Sunday night, aside from the storm activity,
temperatures will fall into the low 40s in the north, to upper 40s
across the south.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026

The period will begin with a cold front pushing southward across the
Ohio Valley. This feature will push out of the area on Monday and we
will see cooler and drier air pushing into eastern Kentucky in the
wake. This will lead to afternoon highs about 30 degrees lower than
what we have forecast for Sunday. However, these temperatures in
the mid to upper 50s for Monday are closer to normal for this time
of year. Synoptically the deterministic and ensemble guidance
show an area of surface high pressure pushes into the Great Lakes
and we will see this feature dominate the weather through Tuesday.
Tuesday will begin with easterly flow at the surface but
eventually we will see this switch to more southerly flow with
temperatures climbing back toward the low to mid 60s in most
locations. This is slated to be the driest day of the period, with
afternoon RH values dropping into the 25 percent or less range
for many locations. This high pressure pushes off to the east by
by Wednesday and we will be left in between systems. The ensembles
are showing weak signal for perhaps some warm advection showers
or a weak disturbance. Either way NBM is adding in around 20
percent PoP for Wednesday, but given the deterministic and
ensemble forecast soundings are showing drier air at the surface
could see this day trending drier with time.

The next more substantial storm system arrives to end the week. The
issue that remains is the divergence seen in the deterministic
and ensemble synoptic patterns. There are two camps seen right
now one would sweep the cold front across the area and well
southward into the Southeast US and other has this boundary linger
near the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through the weekend. The NBM
is seeing this divergence in patterns, as it is capping most of
the PoPs in the chance range through the end of the period, with
greatest chances of rainfall on Thursday night. There is some
signal for some strong storms by Thursday and Friday with this
system in the Ohio Valley based on ML and AI data, so this trend
will need to be watched. Right now best alignment for instability
and shear are to the northwest of eastern Kentucky. Overall the
rainfall amounts will depend on how quickly this boundary moves
through the Ohio Valley, with the more stalled out solution
leading to more rainfall. This will again need to be monitored as
we get closer to this forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF forecast. Some
brief reductions in ceilings and/or visibility could occur with
any stray showers or storm that manages to develop in parts of the
Cumberland Valley during the first 5 hours or so of the period. A
PROB30 for KLOZ for a shower on station was used between 03Z and
0. Winds will average light and variable through 12Z, but then as
the nocturnal inversion mixes out through 16Z, sustained winds
should increase to 5 to 12KT, with gusts to around 15 to 20KT.
Winds during peaking heating may reach roughly the 8 to 15K range
with gusts in the 15 to 25KT range. Reductions from showers or
storms near or in advance of a cold front may bring sub VFR
conditions as early as the 3 to 6 hours following this TAF cycle.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GINNICK/JP