Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

870
FXUS63 KJKL 270518
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1218 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fast-moving clipper systems will move through late Tuesday and
  late Wednesday, with flurries and light snow showers possible.
  The Wednesday system has higher probabilities of producing more
  widespread minor snow accumulations, especially across the
  northeastern half of the forecast area.

- Bitter cold weather lasts through next weekend, with at least a
  brief warming trend then possible early next week.

- There is a low potential for a more widespread light snow event
  this weekend for parts of eastern Kentucky depending on the
  evolution of a possible large system moving up the Eastern
  Seaboard.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1039 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026

Temps are not falling off quite as fast as was expected. Have
blended late evening obs into the forecast and left forecast mins
unchanged, waiting to see if readings can eventually drop far
enough.

UPDATE Issued at 758 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026

Scattered flurries linger in southeast KY, but continue on the
decline. Have extended their potential in the forecast for a while
longer this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 208 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026

An upper tropospheric PV anomaly approaching from the west today
combined with low-level cold advection and a saturated dendritic
growth zone have contributed to higher than expected fluffy snow
accumulations for some locations today, especially for areas near
and just east of the western escarpment of the Cumberland Plateau,
which seems to be the more favored upslope location compared to
the more typical high terrain near and along the Virginia border.
This activity will begin to diminish toward sunset as the upper
tropospheric PV anomaly passes. Another weaker PV anomaly arrives
overnight, generally crossing by 06z, and this will help to
squeeze out any moisture from what low clouds remain, thus expect
to see flurries even while likely seeing stars in a few places.

Skies should mostly clear eventually, especially after 06z
tonight, southwest low-level flow developing indicative of warm
advection ahead of the next system approaching Tuesday. Models
have trended warmer for tonight`s lows, but will keep the existing
cold headlines as-is and massage wording as needed.

The next clipper system arrives Tuesday, with highs warming into
the mid-20s to mid-30s with sunny skies to start the day trending
towards cloudy with flurries or light snow showers developing
late in the day from the northwest. This activity then continues
into the overnight behind the passage of the clipper.

This clipper will bring a reinforcing shot of arctic air Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning, and another cold headline may be
needed for Fleming County and vicinity.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 208 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026

The next clipper system arrives later in the day Wednesday, and
manual modifications in PoPs upwards from the NBM were made as
LREF members depict a 25% or greater chance of measurable snow
across roughly the northeastern half of the forecast area. A brief
shot of warm advection preceding this system will allow for highs
to reach the lower 30s across the south, with 20s across the
northern half of the forecast area. Behind this system, another
blast of arctic air is expected, with lows and/or wind chills Friday
morning having a good chance of requiring cold weather headlines
again, which may linger into Saturday morning.

Some uncertainty exists this weekend with regards to a potentially
strong cyclone moving up the East Coast, with some models
indicating the potential for wraparound moisture to reach far eastern
and southeastern Kentucky over the weekend. Thus, more widespread
low-end PoPs have been included at this time frame to account for
this potential.

A moderating trend begins Monday as warm advection begins ahead of
a front expected to arrival around the middle of next week. This
will likely bring the first significant chance of widespread above
freezing temperatures during the next week.

In summary, temperatures will remain well below normal, and for
most locations will remain below freezing through the long-term
period until early next week. Passing clipper systems will have
the potential to produce periods of flurries or light snow
showers, with a low potential for more widespread light snow this
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2026

Mainly VFR conditions prevailed at TAF issuance, with only very
localized MVFR ceilings still present in southeast KY. The MVFR
ceilings should clear out overnight, with VFR area wide then
lasting into Tuesday. Low end VFR ceilings along with flurries are
expected to develop on Tuesday. Wouldn`t rule out some MVFR
conditions on Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, but the
probability at any given time/location is not high enough to
address in TAFs.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Cold Warning until noon EST today for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106-108-111-114-116-118.

Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST today for KYZ107-109-110-
112-113-115-117-119-120.


&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...HAL