Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

502
FXUS63 KJKL 021119
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
719 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid weather persists at quite oppressive levels
  through the rest of the week, likely peaking on today.

- Mostly dry weather is anticipated through Thursday, before
  chances for showers and storms return to end the week and over
  the weekend.

- A few strong storms and heavy rainfall will be possible Friday
  into Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 719 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2026

Did a quick update to adjust to the latest obs and trends this
morning. Given there is once again patchy dense fog opted to hoist
an SPS again this morning through 13Z to cover this hazard.
Outside this no major impacts weather wise before heat builds in
through through the late morning and afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 253 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2026

The early morning surface analysis shows high pressure right
overhead, with strong mid-level heights at 596mb at 00Z at near by
upper air sites. The mid-level heights are centered to our east just
a bit based on the 00Z RAOB data. These heights are continuing to
run around 99th percentile for this time of year. There is good
agreement for these features to remain overhead or just to the east
for the short term period. The broken record of river valley fog
will roll on this morning and will be the biggest impact to start
the day. This fog will lift out through the morning and should be
sunny areawide by 9-10 AM.

Then yet another day of summer heat will be in store for eastern
Kentucky. The NBM continues to run on the hotter side of guidance,
so did opt to make some adjustments toward some of the other model
blends through the short term to lower afternoon highs in
coordination with surrounding WFOs. Even so ample moisture
combined with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s will lead to
heat indices once again in the triple digits to near 105. This
will be day 3 of 4 consecutive days with heat indices in the 105
degree range. Much like yesterday forecast soundings show the
potential for some diurnally driven cumulus to develop again this
afternoon, but these will remain mostly capped noted by strong
inversion within the forecast soundings. However, some of the CAMs
are noting some convection developing along the Cumberland
Plateau in Tennessee and these could slowly migrate northward
toward the Lake Cumberland region late this afternoon. Given this
did opt to blend the NBM PoPs toward the short term blends to
account for this potential. The SPC marginal risk does touch our
Tennessee border areas, but confidence remains low on just how
much convection we see today given the overall varying looks from
the CAMs and generally capped environment. Then tonight, expect
another night of clear skies, with yet another round of river
valley fog possible. The lows will only fall into the lower 70s to
perhaps upper 60s, with small ridge/valley splits of maybe 1-2
degrees in most cases.

By Friday, the previously mentioned mid-level high will shift east
some. This could open the door for a little more in the way of
convective coverage, with shortwave spokes dancing around the
upper high. This as most of the CAMs start to show convection
developing in our terrain near the Virginia/Tennessee border and
migrating northwest. The SPC does expand the marginal risk area
wide for Friday given ample moisture and strong surface heating
combining to lead to MUCAPE values in the 4000 J/kg range.
However, given the lack of shear with nothing notable from the 0-6
km levels storms would struggle to organize, but if storms can
develop we will have DCAPE values in the 1000-1300 J/kg range
which would be supportive of isolated damaging wind threat.
Outside this, the hot and moist environment will lead to day 4 of
4 for the potential for heat indices near to around 105 degrees.
Therefore, the Excessive Heat Warning will remain in effect
through Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2026

There is good support in the various ensembles and deterministic
guidance that the upper level high that has plagued the Ohio and
Tennessee Valley this week will breakdown for the weekend. This will
lead to more zonal like flow in the Ohio Valley and open the door to
more subtle shortwaves within the broader flow. This pattern will
also lead to a little more notable uptick in deeper moisture with
PWATs starting to climb toward the 1.6-1.8 inch range based on the
mean of the primary ensemble outputs. This will lead to daily
chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms this weekend. Given
the increased deeper moisture noted by PWATs closing in on the 80th
percentile and potential for multiple rounds of convection over
the weekend WPC does have a marginal risk of excessive rainfall
starting Saturday and going to at least Sunday. The risk will
likely be highly dependent on how many rounds of convection we
receive. The SPC did add in a day 3 marginal area wide for
Saturday, as MUCAPE remains in the 4000 J/kg range and DCAPE
around 1000 J/kg could lead to isolated damaging wind threat. SPC
did mention that risk could be higher if MCS happens to develop
and seems reasonable given the more zonal flow aloft and lack of
shear. All combined there will be some relief in temperatures to
what was a relentless stretch of hot and humid days. This as
afternoon highs are expected to climb into the lower 90s and again
adjusted these down some from the NBM to match the trends in the
other guidance.

Getting into next week, the ensembles and deterministic guidance is
in reasonable agreement that we will see a weak frontal boundary
across the Ohio Valley sag southward toward the Tennessee Valley.
This feature combined with more notable height falls from a upper low
moving across the Great Lakes will usher greater chances of showers
and thunderstorms through midweek. This will peak around Tuesday and
Wednesday, with PoPs generally in the 40-60 percent chance range.
The risk of heavier rainfall will continue as PWATs remain in the
1.6 to 1.8 range and again will be dependent on how many rounds
of convection we see. The good news is afternoon highs will
decrease toward the mid to upper 80s by Tuesday and Wednesday
given the potential for rain and greater cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2026

High pressure will keep the weather quiet, with mostly VFR
conditions through much of the period. However, we are already
seeing some fog develop based on the satellite trends tonight
mainly in the typical river valley locations. Stuck closer to
persistence forecast through the night, with some temporary
restrictions possible at most sites in the MVFR to IFR range for
fog potential. This will lift around 13Z and we will be left with
mainly VFR skies as diurnally driven cumulus develops around the 4
kft level through the afternoon. The winds will remain light and
variable generally below 5 knots.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...DJ