Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

528
FXUS63 KJKL 121930
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
330 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy rainfall, will
  continue at times today. A Flood Watch remains in effect through
  this evening for localized flash flooding.

- Isolated to scattered pop-up storms are possible each afternoon,
  with the highest probability remaining near the Tennessee
  border.

-Temperatures warm through next week, reaching the upper 80s to
 around 90 degrees by Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026

As of 19Z, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
ongoing across Eastern Kentucky. A band of showers and storms,
generally along and north of the Mountain Parkway, are moving in a
East-West direction. Further south, a band of showers and storms are
moving in a West-East direction form Rockcastle to Letcher county.
Moisture further south is wrapping around an area of low pressure
and is moving Northeast into Wayne-McCreary-Whitley. Analyzing
satellite, the center of low pressure appears to be near Bowling
Green. Current temperatures are a mix of lower 70s where convection
has been the most persistent, and upper 70s to low 80s where area
have largely remained rain/storm free through the afternoon. These
temperatures are expected to cool into the mid 60s this evening.

Storms are generally progressive enough and shallow to not
yield widespread concern of flooding, however the risk of isolated
to scattered flash flooding from repetitive rounds does remain
through the early evening. PWAT around the region remains between
1.9 and 2.0 inches with a weak cold frontal boundary across the Hal
Rogers/ KY Highway 80 corridor. While this stacked continues to
produce showers and storms over the area, a strong ridge of high
pressure builds over the Intermountain West and High Plains. Sunday
evening this high will propagate northeast into the Northern and
Central Plains, allowing the positively tilted trough over Bowling
Green to sag south and east of the forecast area. Some patchy areas
of fog may develop tonight, and may not be confined to river valley
locations.

Monday, as high pressure out west forces the stacked low further
into Tennessee, Eastern Kentucky will be under light easterly winds.
With similar conditions of PWAT remaining elevated and some
instability, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop Monday afternoon east of the trough axis, and
spread west across the area. The greatest chances for these storms
are generally along and south of the Mountain Parkway, with the
probability at its highest near the Tennessee border. The WPC has
placed areas along and south of the Mountain Parkway in a Marginal
Excessive Rain Outlook (ERO) ending Tuesday morning. Skies will
begin to clear out in the wake of the exiting system, though
mixing is expected, with a decent gradient across the area and
minor height rises. Patchy areas of fog may develop, but may be
confined to the typical river valley locations. Temperatures are
generally expected to warm into the lower 80s, but could be
suppressed some with any convection. Temperatures are also
expected to cool into the low to mid 60s at night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 947 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026

At the onset of the long term period, strong upper level ridging
will be centered over the upper Midwest. Meanwhile, the remaining
upper level low will become cut off from departing troughing over
the northeastern CONUS, lingering over the Tennessee Valley into
Tuesday. With a surface high over the Mid Atlantic region, surface
winds are expected to be generally easterly to east
northeasterly, ushering in marginally drier air. This, in addition
to a decline in forcing, should work to suppress rain chances in
most regions on Tuesday. The possible exception is near the KY/TN
line in closer proximity to the low; here, isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon,
although with such weak upper level flow, any storms that do form
should trend towards typical summertime pulse convection. Any rain
chances should diminish rather quickly after sunset with the loss
of daytime heating.

By Wednesday, the aforementioned low should fully depart our
region as it retrogrades along the southern periphery of the upper
level high. Concurrently, 500 mb heights could trend slightly
higher going into Wednesday; however, there is still some
uncertainty with this scenario, owing to model disagreement
regarding the eastern extent of this ridging. The ridges position
will depend on the extent of troughing over the Northeast, which
could block the ridges eastward progression. As of now, the most
likely outcome appears to be that eastern Kentucky finds itself on
the eastern periphery of the ridge, with modest rain chances in
the afternoon on Wednesday and Thursday. Similar to Tuesday, these
storms should be typical isolated to perhaps scattered summertime
convection, and again the best rain chances should be closer to
the KY/TN line, with rain chances swiftly declining after sunset.
With height rises aloft, afternoon high temperatures should also
trend warmer, topping out in the upper 80s to perhaps the low 90s
across the forecast area.

Looking ahead, model spread increases, but the general pattern
will feature a digging trough over the Atlantic Coast. Eastern
Kentucky will likely find itself caught between what remains of
the ridge to the southwest and a trough axis to the east, leading
to northwesterly flow aloft. This will allow a return to a more
active pattern, with more widespread rain chances and marginally
cooler temperatures going into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026

Showers and thunderstorms continue across Eastern Kentucky this
afternoon. As of 1730Z A band of storms are impacting areas near
KSYM and KIOB, moving in a East-West direction. Further south, a
band of storms are moving in a West-East direction, just north of
KSME and KLOZ. These showers and storms are expected to be in and
around those airports through 00Z or so before activity cools
down. While KJKL and KSJS presently don`t have storms around their
terminals, storms could develop through 00Z. As such a PROB30 has
been maintained at all TAF locations through 00Z for the
possibility of a thunderstorm. In that scenario, flight conditions
would drop into MVFR or IFR conditions with heavy rain possible.
Otherwise, besides low ceilings, visibility has been in VFR. Winds
will remain light and variable through the TAF period. Later this
evening, patchy areas of fog may develop between 05Z before
mixing out by 13-14Z. Conditions should improve beyond 14Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Monday for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-
069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...GINNICK