Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

143
FXUS63 KJKL 211200 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
700 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Much colder air arrives during the second half of the weekend
   and lingers into early next week.

-  Light snow will probably occur in many locations by Sunday,
   possibly lingering into Monday. Any accumulations look to be on
   the small side for most of the area - generally highest in the
   taller terrain of the east.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 410 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026

08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure building into Kentucky from
the northwest while a weak wave is passing to the south. This wave
has been able to push some thicker clouds over the area as well as
some pre-dawn light rain for the Cumberland Valley. Currently,
temperatures are much cooler than last night but still on the
unseasonably mild side with mid 30s north and mid to upper 40s in
the south. Meanwhile, amid light northerly winds, dewpoints are
generally in the mid and upper 20s.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in
pretty good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict 5h troughing over the northern central
portion of the nation with ridging through the Gulf Coast and
points south. This is maintaining slightly southwest flow at mid
levels over the southern Ohio Valley and Kentucky through the
weekend. The main, unconsolidated, trough does head into the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys later this evening with some height falls
for the JKl CWA as well as more in the way of mid level energy.
This larger trough bottoms out through the middle of the state by
Sunday morning with more concentrated energy passing west to east
across our area by Sunday afternoon. The 5h trough works east of
the state by Sunday evening as the mid level flow pattern switches
to northwesterly. Given the still similar solutions in the
models, the NBM was used as the starting point of the forecast
grids with mainly some minor adjustments made to PoPs and snow
amounts from late tonight through Sunday evening per the latest
CAMs consensus.

Sensible weather features one last seasonably mild day under
plenty of mid level clouds. Tonight, colder air advecting into
this part of Kentucky will change any light rain over to snow
showers into dawn Sunday. Warm ground temperatures will hinder
accumulations through the night while insolation on Sunday hampers
it, as well. However, a developing coastal storm will back more
moisture into eastern Kentucky from the northeast along with a
colder air mass through the day, Sunday on generally upslope sfc
winds. This will keep some light snow flying for most of the area,
though with accumulations light and spotty through sunset - best
chances for measurable amounts will be in the higher terrain of
the east. With snow showers expected to continue into the night, a
Winter Weather Advisory will probably be necessary for eastern
parts of the CWA from that night through Monday should model
trends hold.

The changes to the NBM starting point primarily consisted of
enhancing the PoPs tonight and Sunday per the latest higher
resolution CAMs guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 425 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026

Through Sunday, a surface low in the Southeast US, on the lee side
of an upper level trough, will work up the the East coast, maturing
into a strong Noreaster in the process. Meanwhile, a secondary
embedded shortwave originating on the upwind side of the same upper
level trough, will propagate southeast out of the Upper Mississippi
Valley into western portions of the Ohio Valley. With multiple
vorticity lobs transiting over the area, cold air continuing to advect
in, and a saturated DGZ layer, snow showers are likely overnight
Sunday into Monday. Getting into the day monday, some dry air starts
to mix into the DGZ as the stronger surface low continues to track
well into New England. Some models and quick to clear out the snow
shower chances through Monday, however, northwest flow on the upwind
side of a departing low notoriously produces upslope snow showers
that tend to linger. As such, POPs were adjusted up and held onto a
little further west for Monday afternoon and early evening.
Adjustments may have been conservative at present, but can always be
adjusted as needed in future forecast updates. The chances for
accumulating snow over an inch has shifted east some from the
previous forecast, but generally remains east of a line extending
form Harlan to Hazard to Paintsville. LREF probabilities continue to
show much of Pike County and parts of adjacent counties have a 40
percent or greater chance of at least 1 inch snow accumulation, with
much of eastern Pike County (especially higher elevations) having a
~10 percent chance of 2 or more inches of snow. Temperatures Sunday
night will generally fall into the low to mid 20s. With breezy
conditions possible, and gust of 20-25 mph, wind chills may be
hovering in the single digits to teens. Monday temperatures struggle
to make it above the freezing mark, with snow showers and flurries
which could linger through Monday night and into Tuesday morning.
Monday night lows will drop into the teens to low 20s.

Tuesday, a drier regime briefly works into the area, with weak
upper level ridging and rising heights aloft. A mix of sun and
clouds is expected with temperatures warming into the low to mid
40s. Ridging would have lasted longer if not for another upper level
low coming out of Central Canada and the Northern Plains, Monday
evening. Through Tuesday this upper-level low moves into the Great
Lakes. At some point either Wednesday evening or Thursday morning,
this systems cold front will move through Kentucky, bringing PWAT
values around an inch to the area. Numerous rain showers are
expected Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon, with another
trough axis moving through Eastern Kentucky Thursday night.
Temperatures gradually warm through the end of the wee, generally in
the low to upper 50s through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026

VFR conditions will hold until early this evening. Then IFR, or
low end MVFR, conditions move in and worsen through the night,
along with some light rain and/or snow. Winds will be light and
variable through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...HAL/GREIF