Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

308
FXUS63 KJKL 111503 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1103 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm weather will last through today. Latest
  forecasts anticipates near-record or record temperatures at both
  London and Jackson today.

- A Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms remains for all of
  eastern Kentucky for this afternoon and evening, with damaging
  winds and isolated tornadoes the primary severe threats.

- Torrential downpours, hail up to 1 inch in diameter, and wind
  gusts outside of storms between 30 and 40 mph are also possible.

- After a sharp cooldown behind a cold front on Thursday, mild
  temperatures return for Friday into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1102 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026

Significant breaks in the clouds have developed since sunrise,
with dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s for the most part and
some mid 60s to near 70 dewpoints near Lake Cumberland. Recent
mesoanalysis from 14Z (10 AM EDT) has CIN remaining across most
of the area with MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less in the north
and greater than 500J/kg in the Cumberland Valley with little or
no CIN. However, by 16Z to 18Z, MLCAPE may reach 700 to 1000 J/kg
MLCAPE from near KSYM and KLOZ that translates northeast to areas
north of KY 80 thereafter. This should coincide with 5.5 to
6.5C/km mid level lapse rates and low level lapse rates reach the
6.5 to 7.5C/km with these numbers RAP based. Effective shear
should average 50 to 55KT around that timeframe, though could be a
bit stronger. Assuming continued insolation, isolated to
scattered and potentially robust convection may develop in the
KSME to KLOZ to KJKL to near or south of I-64 corridor and then
translate east north of the Hal Rogers Pkwy to KY 80 corridor in
the next 2 hours and then shifts into WV. This activity if it
materializes should have supercell characteristics and would
present a risk of all hazards. Isolated activity will remain
possible outside of this area and areawide during the mid
afternoon though mid afternoon could be a period of overall lull.

Then additional activity is anticipated per CAMS after about 4 PM
EDT that moves from west to east or northwest to southeast across
the area. At that point effective shear should still average in
the 50 to 60KT range 5.5C/km to 6.5C/km mid level lapse rates and
roughly 6.5 to 7.5C/km low level lapse rates with MLCAPE of
roughly 500 to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. A QLCS line or line segments
appear to be the primary mode in the 4 to 9 PM EDT timeframe with
strong to damaging wind the primary hazard, though an embedded
spin up tornado or hail may also occur. If storms were to train
over an area, then high water would become a risk as well.

Hourly pops were updated based on recent trends in CAMS and a
severe POT was added to the grids. Other hourly grids were
freshened up based on recent observations.


UPDATE Issued at 736 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026

Morning update is primarily just a refresh of the going forecast.
Pops might be a bit overdone for many areas this morning, but am
hesitant to make significant changes given the uncertainties and
complexities of the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 522 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026

Convection has a been a bit slow to get going overnight so far,
but new upstream activity is starting to develop to the west and
southwest under the low-level jet core. This makes for a somewhat
uncertain PoP forecast through the morning as this activity
approaches or brushes the area to the northwest. Otherwise, the
forecast remains on track for later today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 347 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026

A potent disturbance and cold front will cross the area this evening
and bring with it breezy to windy conditions along with the threat
for strong to severe thunderstorms. A much cooler airmass spills
into eastern Kentucky with rain ending as a very brief period of
snow across the higher terrain of southeastern Kentucky during the
early morning hours Thursday, with the parent upper trough crossing
the area during the afternoon hours as surface high pressure ushers
in a much drier and cooler air mass into the region.

A Wind Advisory was issued for the Bluegrass counties and
neighboring counties for today, with wind gusts peaking around 40
mph, though a few gusts to 50 mph cannot be completely ruled out if
sufficient deep mixing is realized, which is somewhat lower
confidence at this time. There is also the potential for the Wind
Advisory to be expanded east across more of eastern and northeastern
Kentucky later this morning.

The other concern for today is the risk for severe thunderstorms
this afternoon into the evening. Models suggest a strengthening of a
low-level jet across central to northeastern Kentucky right at peak
heating this afternoon into early evening as the cold front
approaches. Assuming even modest destabilization is able to occur
after a morning period of convection, especially across our western
and northern counties, the dynamics easily support a severe weather
risk. In fact, while the current SPC Day 1 Slight Risk appears
plenty sufficient, it would not be surprising to see an upgrade from
SPC to an Enhanced Risk for some parts of northeastern Kentucky if
the question of degree of destabilization is resolved, especially if
it becomes more likely that parts of the area may realize 1000-1500
J/kg of SBCAPE by mid- to late afternoon.

The main convective mode looks to be line segments and clusters, but
discrete supercells will be possible as well if the dynamics and
thermodynamics align favorably. Damaging winds and brief tornadoes
will be the primary concern, but large hail would also be a concern
with any supercells.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 514 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026

At the open of the long term period (Thursday evening), high
pressure builds into the area. Backing winds go from light westerly
winds early in the evening, to southerly winds through the night.
With light southerly winds overnight, and mostly clear skies, low
temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 20s to low 30s in
sheltered hollows and valley locations. Elsewhere, temperatures in
the mid to upper 30s are expected along ridgetops.

An upper level low strengthens in the Dakotas and digs into the
Upper Great Lakes on Friday. A strong 70-75 knot 850-mb LLJ will
pass through the Ohio Valley during the day. This will lead to
strong southwest winds with the potential for strong wind gusts.
12Z LREF ensemble guidance shows the forecast area along and north
of the Hal-Rogers/KY-80 corridor with a 90% or greater chance of
seeing gusts of 35 mph, while still maintaining a 70% or greater
chance of 40 mph gusts across the same area. A model BUFKIT sounding
for Jackson shows momentum transfer of 35-40 kts (approximately 40-45
mph). This same model sounding for Morehead, closer to the core of
the LLJ, shows momentum transfer of 43 kts (close to 50 mph). Wind
gusts for Friday mid-morning through the afternoon were adjusted up
using a 75/25 blend of the 90th percentile NBM with itself. Budding
trees and vegetation drawing water from the ground along with drier
air moving into the area will create elevated to critical fire
weather conditions. Afternoon dew points were adjusted downward using
a blend of the 5th and 10th percentile from the NBM. This yields dew
points in the low 20s, and RH values ranging from the low to mid 30s
near the I-75 corridor, to RH`s in the upper teens and low 20s
farther east. With strong southwest winds through the afternoon,
temperatures will climb into the upper 50s in the north to mid 60s
further south. Friday evening, light westerly winds will veer to
northeasterly by Saturday morning. Dry conditions continue, with
temperatures dropping into the 30s.

Saturday, remains quiet, with light easterly winds and temperatures
warming into the upper 50s to upper 60s north to south. Saturday
evening a trough begins to develop in the Northern Rockies and digs
into the Central Plains early Sunday. A warm front will be just
north of the state, in the Ohio Valley. Being in the warm sector,
temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 70s. Winds may be
breezy to gusty, with LREF probabilities of seeing gusts of at least
35 mph are generally around or north of 75%. Later Sunday evening
into early Monday, the approaching systems cold front will pass
through Eastern Kentucky, leading to another round of showers and
thunderstorms. As the trough axis digs south over Kentucky Sunday
night, temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s which will lead to a
wintry rain-snow mix.

Monday, as the trough begins to lift northeast, snow showers will
taper off through the day, with temperatures reaching the low to mid
40s across the area. Although the low and trough are departing to
the east, the area will still be under northwest flow. allowing cold
air to advect in. As it does, temperatures drop into the low to mid
20s area wide Monday night. An embedded shortwave ejects out of the
Northern Rockies which may bring another shot of active weather mid
week. At this time Tuesday looks to remain dry through most of the
day. Temperatures remain in the upper 30s to low 40s through
Tuesday, dropping into the mid to upper 20s at night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 714 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026

VFR to borderline MVFR/VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through this afternoon outside of showers and thunderstorms,
though reductions to MVFR or lower conditions are possible within
any heavier showers and storms. Widespread reductions to MVFR and
lower are expected with the arrival and passage of a strong cold
front this evening, with improvements to cigs to VFR conditions by
the end of the TAF period for KIOB, KSYM, KSME, and KLOZ.

Winds will continue to increase at the surface with a low-level
jet overhead through this morning, with strong mixing resulting
in widespread southwesterly 25 to 35 kt wind gusts this afternoon
across TAF sites. Winds will abruptly veer to northwesterly this
evening and gradually diminish with the passage of the cold front
this evening.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC