Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

492
FXUS63 KJKL 101923
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
323 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm weather will last through Wednesday. Latest
  forecasts suggest near-record or record temperatures at both
  London and Jackson Wednesday.

- A Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms remains for all of
  eastern Kentucky as a strong cold front brings showers and
  thunderstorms late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.

- After a sharp cooldown Thursday, mild temperatures return for
  Friday into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 733 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026

Showers, with a few thunderstorms west of Interstate 75, will
continue to move east this morning with a probable gradual
weakening trend as they outrun better instability. A weak
disturbance and weak instability will likely initiate a few more
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.

Looking ahead, winds and wind gusts were increased for Wednesday
into Wednesday evening with this update as confidence continues to
increase that there will be mixing down of strong winds aloft
during the peak heating period, especially in our northeastern
counties where a low-level jet will be developing ahead of the
strong cold front approaching from the west. Forecast high
temperatures also continue to trend upwards, with lower to mid
80s becoming more probable across northeastern Kentucky due to the
better mixing.

UPDATE Issued at 520 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed over south-
central Kentucky and north-central Tennessee in the last few
hours, and these are poised to move across the southern half of
the forecast area over the next several hours. This is already
reflected well in the 1-hour PoP grids. Sky grids were updated to
reflect more clearing that exists than currently forecast out ahead
of this activity.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026

A mid-level disturbance will bring a round of scattered showers and
thunderstorms from around sunrise this morning through early or mid-
afternoon before activity likely winds down or becomes isolated as
shortwave ridging builds over the area for this evening. Strong warm
advection develops just to the west tonight, with showers and
thunderstorms moving into the area most likely after midnight. A
strong cold front then approaches from the west with impressive
dynamics and wind shear, and sufficient instability to support a
severe weather threat.

Exclusive of the damaging wind threat with any potential severe
thunderstorms, gusty winds are expected Wednesday afternoon between
early-day convection and the late afternoon and evening convection.
Probabilities for reaching Wind Advisory criteria of 40 mph wind
gusts reach around 40 to 50 percent Wednesday afternoon, and
confined to our extreme CWA border in the Bluegrass region in Bath,
Montgomery, and Fleming counties.

The greatest uncertainty comes at the end of the period early
Wednesday evening when a cold front with strong forcing moves across
the area. Most modeling suggests a low-level wind maximum in the 925-
hPa and 850-hPa levels centered just northeast of the JKL CWA at 00z
Thursday, but in close enough proximity to warrant our northern
counties having a slightly higher probability for severe weather.
Early morning collaborations with the SPC for their Day 2 Convective
Outlook discussed a potential upgrade to an Enhanced Risk for
northeastern Kentucky, and this may still occur with future outlook
issuances. However, there are still uncertainties with regards to
early-day and afternoon convection and the degree of late afternoon
and early evening destabilization that can occur. For now, a Slight
Risk for severe thunderstorms remains for the entire forecast area.

Assuming weak instability of 500-1000 J/kg can be realized across
eastern Kentucky by late afternoon and early evening Wednesday,
along with the presence of a strengthening low-level jet over
northeastern Kentucky, then a damaging wind and isolated tornado
risk will exist. Thus, the Slight Risk remains for the Day 2
Convective Outlook at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 303 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026

The forecast period begins with an upper-level trough progged over
the western Great Lakes, while the associated surface low tracks
across the eastern Great Lakes into New England. An attending cold
front will be oriented southwest across the Commonwealth toward the
Gulf Coast. A cut-off low is forecast to track across the CONUS
through the week, influencing the broader synoptic pattern. On the
mesoscale, the strong cold front will cross the region, bringing
showers and thunderstorms. While the severe weather threat should be
waning by the start of the extended period, a few strong storms
cannot be ruled out during the frontal passage across the CWA. As
the surface low shifts into New England, the cold front will exit
the area by early Thursday morning. CAA behind the front will lead
to a brief transition to an isolated rain-snow mix. However, this
will be short-lived; as temperatures rise along the diurnal curve,
any frozen precipitation will quickly revert to rain before ending.

Thursday marks the arrival of surface high pressure and drier
conditions. Despite the sunshine, post-frontal CAA will limit
afternoon highs to the upper-40s and low-50s. While temperatures
remain cool overnight, low-level flow will shift southwesterly,
allowing warmer air to advect into the region. This will be
manifested on Friday as highs climb into the upper-50s and mid-60s.
This warming trend is attributed to the southwesterly flow ahead of
a clipper system progged to dive into the northern CONUS and Great
Lakes through Friday morning. Because this feature remains well to
the north, the local area will stay under the influence of high
pressure, maintaining dry weather and warming temperatures through
the start of the weekend.

By Sunday, the pattern flips as a Pacific trough ejects off the
Rockies and moves across the CONUS, reaching the doorstep of the CWA
by Sunday afternoon. Increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms will exist ahead of the system. Long-term forecast
soundings indicate sufficient instability and shear may be in place
to support strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon. While specific
details remain unresolved, the potential is evident in current model
guidance. The surface low will track through the Great Lakes, with
FROPA occurring through the day Monday. Similar to the mid-week
system, significant cold air is progged to wrap around the backside
of the low, leading to a transition from rain to snow Monday
afternoon and evening. Behind the departing system, cold high
pressure settles in, bringing slightly below-average temperatures to
end the period.

The period will be highlighted by two distinct shortwaves separated
by a period of high pressure. While temperatures will generally
trend above average, cold air advection behind each cold front will
bring periodic cooler temperatures and a brief return to winter-like
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

This afternoon`s satellite imagery reveals a broken deck of clouds
and embedded cu across the region, with MVFR to VFR ceilings
observed at area ASOS/AWOS sites. A few, isolated light rain
showers have been noted on radar, but they are not expected to
yield any major visibility impacts through this evening.
Mentionable precipitation chances spread from southwest to
northeast overnight as a low level jet strengthens and builds into
the region. These are currently handled with PROB30 groups for
thunderstorms after 08z, and those shower and storm chances will
persist at northern terminals through midday tomorrow. Expect
southwesterly winds to gust to above 20-25 knots after sunrise tomorrow
morning, then strengthen further tomorrow afternoon at all
terminals. Flight categories are expected to return to VFR area
wide late this evening, then move into MVFR as showers and storms
arrive after midnight. During any heavier showers and storms,
locally greater visibility and ceiling reductions are possible.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...MARCUS