Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

017
FXUS63 KJKL 221739
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
139 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry weather is expected from tonight to Friday, with
  temperatures averaging about 5 degrees below normal.

- Unsettled weather is forecast to return this weekend with
  temperatures warming to near normal by early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1039 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2026

We are seeing a boundary continue to sag slowly southward into
Kentucky this morning. This feature is bringing in some dryer air
near the surface in Northern Kentucky where we are seeing low to
mid 50s dewpoints show up versus Southeast Kentucky seeing 70s
dewpoints. Overall model trends bring this boundary southward
through the day into this evening. This could help to develop
convection this afternoon mainly along the Tennessee and Virginia
borders and will slow relent through the evening. Overall only
minor update to align better with the latest obs and trends.

UPDATE Issued at 750 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2026

Ahead of a boundary sagging across the area, a few showers were
occurring in the southern two tiers of counties. Based on this
and high resolution model trends, hourly pops were updated across
the southern two tiers of counties and pops increased back to the
Lake Cumberland area based on radar trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 555 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2026

Early this morning, an upper level ridge was centered in the
Southern Plains vicinity with ridging northwest to sections of
the Northern Rockies and also east the Arklatex area and an
another upper level ridge centered in the Atlantic to the
northeast of Bermuda. Meanwhile, Bertha continues to meander west
in the northern Gulf while an upper level trough is in place from
Central parts of Canada into the Great Lakes to eastern Conus. A
shortwave in the northwest flow between the two was nearing the
western Great Lakes to upper midwest vicinity at this time. A weak
trough was over the Great Basin vicinity while additional
shortwaves were in the northwest flow. At the surface, an area of
low pressure was moving across parts of Canada with the trailing
cold front extending into the northeast Conus to OH Valley to the
Southern Plains. The boundary has slipped south of the I-64
corridor and was located from near KCRW southwest to near KJKL to
near KBNA vicinity at this time. A mixture of clouds at all
levels along with a few prefrontal showers with an occasional
rumble of thunder was located to the south. This activity has
waned over the past couple of hours though some locally heavy rain
had fallen from northern Perry County across Knott County to
southwest Pike County. Well northwest of this boundary, sfc high
pressure was centered in the Northern Plains/upper MS Valley
area.

Today and tonight, the shortwave trough nearing the western Great
Lakes should rotate through the Great Lakes and then into the
Northeast Conus. This will help to gradually push the boundary
south across the remainder of eastern KY by late afternoon or
evening. Ahead of the boundary, showers and a few storms will
remain possible today or for areas generally south of the Mtn
Parkway if not further south near and south of the Hal Rogers
Parkway to KY 80 corridor. Otherwise, sfc high pressure will build
into the western Great Lakes to mid MS and OH Valley by later
today and tonight. Chances for showers may linger near the VA
border until around or shortly after sunset per recent HRRR and
some model trends, before waning tonight. Following recent
rainfall and expected clearing especially of low and mid level
clouds, valley fog is likely to develop tonight perhaps as early
as near midnight before dissipating a couple of hours past sunrise
on Thursday.

For Thursday, the axis of the upper level trough will move
further east to generally east of eastern KY with northwest flow
aloft remaining between the troughing from eastern Canada into the
eastern Conus and upper level ridging centered in the Southern
Plains and extending into Southwest Conus/Great Basin vicinity.
The boundary that will have moved south of the area by this
evening should stall over the northern Gulf states vicinity. With
time, as the sfc high builds toward the mid Atlantic an inverted
trough is progged to develop into the eastern TN Valley to eastern
KY area toward Thursday evening. No sensible weather should be
realized from that feature until the evening. Meanwhile, the
shortwave initially over the Great Basin area should reach
sections of the Plains by late in the period and play a role in
weather early in the long term period. Otherwise, the high will
have ushered drier and cooler air into the region by early
Thursday with dewpoints dropping into the mid to upper 50s north
and low to mid 60s in the south and southeast. The airmass will
also support colder high temperatures than what has been observed
recently, roughly 5 degrees below normal, in the upper 70s to low
80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 525 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2026

At the onset of the long term period, upper level troughing will
extend from eastern Canada into the northeast CONUS, with an
additional area of troughing associated with a closed upper level
low located off the Pacific Northwest coast. Broad ridging is
expected to be centered from the Southern Plains to southern NM
area, with anomalously high 500 mb heights across much of the
central and western CONUS. Locally, eastern Kentucky will find
itself in a region of northwesterly flow aloft, with the forecast
area sandwiched between ridging and troughing. At the surface, an
area of high pressure will begin the period centered form the
Southern Great Lakes to the Northeast Conus, though an inverted
trough may extend into pats of eastern KY/Southern Appalachian
region from a wave of low pressure traversing a stalled boundary
across the Gulf coast states. With drier air in place and the high
to the north and northeast generally remaining in control, lows
Thursday night should reach the mid and upper 50s in valleys and
northern sections to the low 60s south and on coalfield ridges.
Typical fog formation is also probable along the larger creeks,
rivers, and lakes.

Chances for convection will return Friday afternoon mainly to
areas near the VA and TN borders. These chances are where more
substantial moisture will be present near and east of the inverted
trough that lingers in parts of the Southern Appalachians as a
shortwave embedded within persistent northwesterly flow aloft
rotates into our area. Upper level ridging should remain generally
persistent across parts of the western Conus to Plains over the
weekend and into early next week with an upper trough from Canada
into parts of the eastern Conus. Northwest flow aloft should
persist, and with the potential for additional embedded impulses,
rain chances will continue through Saturday, although the timing
and details of this activity will need to be refined in later
forecast periods. By Sunday, the eastern Canada to
eastern/northeastern Conus trough will deepen along the Atlantic
Coast, with flow aloft becoming increasingly northerly over the
forecast area. Model spread increases significantly at this point,
with rain chances dependent on embedded impulses remain difficult
to resolve this far out. For now, slight to chance PoPs are
forecast through the end of the period, generally peaking each
afternoon and evening though uncertainty in timing and coverage
remains high at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2026

A cold front will continue to progress across eastern Kentucky
this afternoon into the evening. The good news is we are not
seeing VFR at all the TAF sites, but we are seeing cloud streets
of cumulus that are around the MVFR level. The TAF sites should
mostly remain VFR through the period. However, we will see at
least some potential for valley fog tonight. The question tonight
is how mixed we remain, and the forecast soundings suggest a
decent amount of mixing. This leads to a fair amount of
uncertainty for fog development, but opted to retain the MVFR
range mist for the TAF sites. The winds will remain VRB less than
5 knots in most cases, but some of our more exposed sites will
see wind registering out of the north and west.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...FAGAN/JP
AVIATION...DJ