Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

736
FXUS63 KJKL 061459
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1059 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue today, providing
  beneficial rainfall before tapering off from northwest to
  southeast through Thursday morning.

- Much cooler air settles in Thursday and Friday. Lows on
  Thursday night will dip into the mid to upper 30s in valleys,
  bringing the potential for fog and localized patchy frost.

- A warming trend begins this weekend with highs returning to the
  mid to upper 70s by Sunday.

- Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms return to the
  area for the upcoming weekend and into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1059 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026

Incorporated the latest observational data from around the area
into the diurnal curves for the remainder of today. As a slow
moving cold front moves southeast through the area, a temperature
gradient will emerge across Eastern Kentucky. Currently, areas
behind the cold front are sitting in the low 50s, while area out
ahead of the front remain in the low to mid 60s with showers. The
forecast remains on track for showers to slowly diminish and for a
breif lull to occur sometime this afternoon before another
shortwave works into the area along the cold front to bring
another shot of light showers.

UPDATE Issued at 830 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026

Showers are slowly tapering as a cold front, currently extending
from Ashland to Stanton to Burkesville, gradually sags
southeastward. Anticipate that shower activity will continue to
taper off and become confined more to locations near and
southeast of the Hal Rogers Pkwy/KY-80 corridor by early
afternoon. Forecast PoP progression was increased slightly faster
than main forecast package to bring the forecast in line with the
latest HRRR runs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 457 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026

A welcome rainfall is occurring across eastern Kentucky early this
morning in the form of numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms
ahead of an approaching cold front. Temperatures remain on the mild
side, ranging from the upper 50s over the northern foothills to near
70F in the deepest valleys near the KY-VA border. The aforementioned
cold front extends from a surface low over northeast Quebec and
Labrador southwestward over New England, the Mid-Atlantic, across the
Upper Ohio Valley and Central Kentucky, and continues far beyond into
the heart of Texas. Waves of low pressure are riding along the
boundary, including one presently passing over Central Kentucky. A
second wave of low pressure is situated upstream over southern
Arkansas. Aloft, a positively-tilted 500 hPa trough extends from
eastern Canada southwestward into the Central Rockies where it is
capturing the remnants of an upper low passing through the Desert
Southwest.

The cold front will slowly advance southeastward through the JKL CWA
through midday as the upper level trough begins a negative pivot.
Minimal instability should limit the overall thunderstorm potential
to more of a novelty. Additional southern stream energy ejecting
east northeast from the remnant upper low will cause at least one
notable wave of low pressure to ride along the front late today
and this evening, slowing the front`s departure and keeping some
showery post-frontal rainfall over the areas near and south of
I-64 through midnight. That front will then ease away to the south
and east, taking the deeper moisture and the threat of showers
with it, with even the high terrain in the southeast likely drying
out by around noon on Thursday. With post-frontal 850 hPa
temperatures falling to between 2 and 5C on Thursday afternoon,
expect below normal temperatures to continue.

In sensible terms, look for showers to gradually diminish from the
northwest to roughly a Prestonsburg to Jackson to Somerset line by
midday, but then expand back northward to between the Mountain
Parkway and I-64 corridors this evening. Areas of fog can be
expected throughout that time. After midnight, the shower
activity then slowly sags southeastward and tapers off over the
southeastern high terrain by around noon on Thursday with overcast
skies yielding to a mix of sun and clouds. Temperatures will be
cooler than recent days, only reaching the low 60s northwest to
low 70s southeast for today`s highs before dipping back into the
40s to near 50F tonight. Even with partial clearing on Thursday,
only anticipate highs in the lower to middle 60s, or about 10
degrees below normal for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 224 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026

The long term forecast period opens on the backside of the shortwave
troughing responsible for the active weather described above. As
that feature ejects east, subtle midlevel height rises and a
building surface high pressure system suggest that a clearing trend
will emerge on Thursday evening. A shift to more northwesterly winds
aloft will advect a drier, continental airmass into the region, but
surface winds will be light and variable given the weak pressure
gradient. Collectively, this suggests that Thursday night`s sensible
weather will be driven by localized topographic effects.

Assuming that clearing trend comes to fruition, ridge-valley
temperature splits are expected to emerge after sunset on Thursday
evening. Sheltered and shaded hollows will see the most efficient
radiational cooling and thus the coolest overnights. Temperatures in
the mid 30s there could pose a risk for patchy frost development by
Friday morning. In the main stem river valleys, the presence of
additional moisture should insulate MinTs in the upper 30s/lower
40s. Given that similar post-frontal set-ups have recently produced
patchy valley fog, fog was added to the grids along the Cumberland,
Kentucky, Red, Licking, and Levisa/Tug Fork Rivers with tonight`s
forecast package. Greater fog coverage may be needed in future
forecast updates, especially if grounds are wet by any additional
rainfall on Thursday. The risk for frost/fog lowers as elevation
increases, and ridgetop locales are the most likely to remain in the
mid 40s on Thursday night.

Thursday night`s surface high is forecast to quickly pass through
the forecast area on Friday. Its proximity allows Friday`s daytime
hours to stay dry and mild, but southwesterly surface flow emerges
on its backside by Friday afternoon. These winds will advect a
relatively warmer airmass into the region for the end of the week.
Highs rebound into the upper 60s/lower 70s on Friday afternoon, and
lows stay near the 50 degree mark on Friday night amidst increasing
cloud cover. A midlevel disturbance arriving around midnight on
Saturday morning will work with the warmer air to produce some AM
showers and storms, but misalignment with the diurnal instability
cycle and the shallow nature of the antecedent moisture return will
limit the intensity ceiling of this convection. LREF mean PWATS peak
at a piddly 0.80 inches in the Bluegrass on Saturday morning, then
decrease the further one goes into the higher terrain of SE KY on
Saturday afternoon. The better forcing with this system is also
contained to northern portions of the forecast area, as the parent
disturbance aloft looks to eject NE and abandon the surface boundary
on Saturday afternoon. Any early-day activity along the I-64
corridor should accordingly weaken as it moves deeper into the CWA
after sunrise, and Saturday`s PoPs accordingly follow a North-South
gradient. Rain chances above 40% are limited to locations north of
the Mountain Parkway, and the Cumberland River Basin may stay dry.

The above boundary becomes diffuse across the forecast area on
Saturday night, resulting in seasonably mild and calm conditions.
Another night of ridge-valley splits is possible, but with less
concern for frost and fog. Given the lack of post-frontal cold air
advection, temperatures are generally forecast to remain above the
50 degree mark on Saturday night. This gives Sunday`s temperatures a
head start and sets the stage for more widespread showers and storms
on Sunday afternoon/evening. Sunday`s setup features more vertically
stacked southwesterly flow and thus a more effective warm air
advection/moisture return regime. Breezy southwesterly flow will
yield highs in the upper half of the 70s and dewpoints in the upper
50s/lower 60s on Sunday afternoon. LREF mean PWATs climb to around
1.15 inches in this same time frame, which suggests that Sunday`s
showers and storms will be more meaningful than Saturday`s. The risk
for severe weather does not currently appear particularly high, but
the currently-available ML/AI/analog guidance collectively resolves
marginal-esque probabilities in Southern Kentucky with this setup.
It is possible that those pieces of guidance are picking up on the
potential for a more favorable strong storm environment to emerge on
the warm side of the previous day`s stalled out boundary. The LREF
joint probabilities for marginally favorable convective parameter
spacing (>500 J/kg CAPE, <-25 J/kg CIN, and > 30 knots effective
bulk shear) are in the 30-40% range south of the Mountain Parkway.
While the higher probabilities are confined to the south in the
Tennessee Valley, the progression of Saturday`s boundary and the
related convective model trends on Sunday are worth watching.

Broader longwave troughing digs into the Greater Ohio River Valley
on Monday, setting up a postfrontal northwesterly flow regime from
the surface to the midlevels. Expect a cooler and drier airmass to
move into the commonwealth for the start of the next work week as a
result. After skies clear from west to east on Monday, drier weather
persists on the backside of that trough through Tuesday. The
progressive nature of the overarching synoptic pattern means that
the aforementioned trough is likely to lift into New England by mid
week though. Quasi-zonal flow should emerge over the forecast area
in its wake, but forecast models diverge from there. There is
significant disagreement surrounding the timing and evolution of a
potential system at the very end of the period, but there is a
stronger signal for a warming trend out ahead of it. The CPC Days 8-
14 Temperature Outlook, which begins at the end of the period on
Wednesday, May 13th, suggests that temperatures are trending above-
normal for mid-May in Eastern Kentucky. This is good news for our
frost-sensitive interests, but they are encouraged to pay close
attention to Thursday night`s frost forecast in the mean time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 813 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026

At TAF issuance, shower activity is already becoming more
confined to the southeastern half of the JKL CWA ahead of a
southeastward-advancing cold front. Most of this remaining shower
activity should become more scattered to isolated through mid
afternoon. A weak wave riding the boundary may push renewed light
shower activity back to the north for several hours late this
afternoon and evening but should still remain southeast of I-64.
MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities should be prevalent,
especially near and southeast of I-64 for much of the period.
Winds will generally be under 10 knots veering from southwest to
northwest with the passage of the cold front today, becoming
light and variable tonight.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...GEERTSON