Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

915
FXUS63 KJKL 011130
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
630 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very cold weather will finish out the weekend, followed by a
  moderation during the workweek.

- Most of the area can expect some rain and snow beginning Tuesday
  and lasting into early Wednesday, with minor snow accumulations
  possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 627 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026

The pre-dawn update mainly refreshed the hourly temperature grids,
but also made edits to Sky grids to account for some clearing
occurring in the greater Lake Cumberland region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 244 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026

The short-term period begins this morning with a highly amplified
upper trough/low along the Eastern Seaboard, with low-level cold
advection snow showers and flurries winding down over eastern and
southeastern Kentucky under northerly mid-level flow. Skies will
gradually and partially clear, especially through the afternoon, as
surface ridging builds in from the west.

A notable ridge-valley split in overnight lows was maintained in the
grids for tonight as surface ridging moves overhead with only a few
mid- to high-level clouds. MOS guidance and the NBM Deterministic
low temperatures across the forecast area are up to several degrees
warmer than the NBM probabilistic envelope, and there is the chance
that the NBM probabilistic guidance is bias-corrected to the low
side due to the recent prolonged cold spell. Nevertheless, will
carry mid to upper single digit lows in the valleys and up to mid-
teens over the high terrain, with the high terrain manually
adjusted upwards toward the MOS guidance.

Warm advection begins to slowly increase Monday, and for the first
time in many days most if not all locations will see highs above
freezing with lower to mid 30s north to lower 40s south. Clouds will
increase quickly from west to east during the day, and it is not
entirely out of the question a few flurries or light snow showers
are encountered, particularly across the northern half of the
forecast area, during the afternoon hours. This will allow for the
beginning of some melting of the snow and ice that has remained
on the ground for many locations for over a week now.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 359 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026

Monday night, a shortwave spills out of the Northern Plains while a
southern stream shortwave also works into the Lower to Mid
Mississippi Valley. By Tuesday, these two shortwaves phase just west
of the area. Snow showers look to start early Tuesday, along and
north of the I-64 corridor. As the day unfolds, temperatures warm
into the upper 30s to mid 40s. This will result in mostly rain
across the area, but there will be periods of a rain-snow mix.
Wintry precip such as freezing rain is unlikely at this time, as the
probability of 850-mb temperatures being above 0C are zero across
the area, in multiple ensembles. In simpler terms, the "warm-nose"
that was continuously mentioned with the previous ice storm in late
January, does not exist. Rain and snow showers should taper off as
the overall system progresses off to the east, with minor snow
accumulations expected. A larger trough axis moves through the state
Wednesday night, leading to temperatures dropping into the single
digits to teens, north to south Wednesday night.

Thursday looks slightly cooler, and drier with conditions ranging
from the upper 20s in the north to mid 30s in the south. Models and
ensembles are showing another Great Lakes low, with trailing cold
front through the Ohio Valley. This cold front may bring the areas
next round of active weather Friday and Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026

A mostly MVFR cloud deck producing -SN continues to erode slowly
from the west, with KSME currently experiencing clear skies and
KLOZ on the edge of the cloud deck as of 1130z. Gradual
improvement to VFR conditions is expected at all terminals during
the daylight hours today as ceilings lift and mostly dissipate,
which is expected to continue through the remainder of the TAF
period. Winds will be northwesterly to variable at less than 10
kts.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for KYZ044-
050>052.


&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC