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Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for Somerset KY
National Weather Service Forecast for: Somerset KY
Issued by: National Weather Service Jackson, KY
Updated: 8:26 am EDT Mar 15, 2026
 
Today

Today: Patchy smoke before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. Windy, with a south wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 18 to 23 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.
Windy. Patchy
Smoke then
Mostly Cloudy

Tonight

Tonight: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm.  Low around 34. Windy, with a south wind 16 to 22 mph becoming west southwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Slight Chance
Showers and
Breezy then
Showers and
Windy
Monday

Monday: A chance of rain and snow showers before 10am, then a chance of snow showers.  Cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 35 by 10am. Windy, with a west wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Windy. Chance
Rain/Snow
then Chance
Snow Showers
Monday
Night
Monday Night: A slight chance of snow showers before 9pm, then a chance of flurries between 9pm and 2am.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Breezy, with a west wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Breezy.
Slight Chance
Snow Showers
then Chance
Flurries
Tuesday

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 35. West wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Sunny


Tuesday
Night
Tuesday Night: Increasing clouds, with a low around 21.
Increasing
Clouds

Wednesday

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 51.
Mostly Cloudy


Wednesday
Night
Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 36.
Partly Cloudy


Thursday

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 64.
Mostly Sunny


Hi 72 °F Lo 34 °F Hi 36 °F Lo 19 °F Hi 35 °F Lo 21 °F Hi 51 °F Lo 36 °F Hi 64 °F

Wind Advisory
Dense Smoke Advisory
Hazardous Weather Outlook
 

Today
 
Patchy smoke before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. Windy, with a south wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 18 to 23 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.
Tonight
 
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 34. Windy, with a south wind 16 to 22 mph becoming west southwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Monday
 
A chance of rain and snow showers before 10am, then a chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 35 by 10am. Windy, with a west wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Monday Night
 
A slight chance of snow showers before 9pm, then a chance of flurries between 9pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Breezy, with a west wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Tuesday
 
Sunny, with a high near 35. West wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Tuesday Night
 
Increasing clouds, with a low around 21.
Wednesday
 
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 51.
Wednesday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 36.
Thursday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 64.
Thursday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 43.
Friday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 70.
Friday Night
 
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48.
Saturday
 
Partly sunny, with a high near 66.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Somerset KY.

Weather Forecast Discussion
971
FXUS63 KJKL 151204
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
804 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Dense Smoke Advisory is in effect until noon today near
  ongoing controlled burns.

- Warm, dry, and windy weather will lead to elevated fire danger
  today.

- A Wind Advisory is in effect from 11 AM to 8 PM today for the
  western half of the area. Expect non-thunderstorm wind gusts
  over 40 mph.

- A line of strong to severe showers and thunderstorms will sweep
  through late tonight into early Monday morning, bringing a risk
  for damaging winds and brief tornadoes.

- Temperatures will plummet Monday morning, quickly changing rain
  to snow showers. Heavy bursts of snow and strong winds could
  cause hazardous travel conditions for the Monday evening
  commute.

- Winter temperatures briefly return on Tuesday, with highs only
  reaching the lower to middle 30s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 805 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026

Updated the grids with the latest observational data. Winds should
begin to pick up through the morning as the inversion mixes out.
The forecast remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday evening)
Issued at 649 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026

Looking at the big picture across CONUS, bands of heavy snow and
lightning are off occurring in NW Iowa. This is associated with a
strong surface low, embedded in a long-wave trough. This trough is
expected to dig south through this afternoon, in the Central Plains.
The surface low is centered over Iowa, and is expected to track east-
northeast into the Great Lakes sometime Monday. However, a strong
llJ with 850-mb winds of 40 to 50 kts will gradually increase in
strength as a cold front approaches the area from the west. Warm
moist southerly flow will allow for temperatures to warm into the 70s
today. Winds will gust starting by mid-morning after the inversion
erodes/mixes out. BUFKIT mixed later momentum transfer continues to
highlight mixing potential of 30-40 kts. the HREF and LREF Ensembles
have shown the greatest probabilities of seeing wind gusts over 35
mph would be along and west of the I-75 corridor. A Wind Advisory
remains in effect west of the Pottsville Escarpment through 8 PM EDT
today. As the cold front approaches towards midnight tonight
instability will be waning, though forcing will be more than enough
to produce a organized line of isolated to scattered showers with
embedded isolated thunderstorms. This line, better known as a QLCS,
will precede the cold front, and could produce strong to damaging
wind gusts as well as a breif spin up tornado. The SPC has placed
the western portion of the CWA in a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for
severe weather, while the eastern half is in a Marginal Risk (Level
1/5). The dividing line between the slight and marginal risk extends
just west of Morehead and Jackson, before going east of
Middlesboro. On these outlooks a hatched area indicates a Level 1
intensity, for wind and tornado threats across nearly all of eastern
Kentucky, indicating an environment supportive of at least isolated
significant wind gusts (74+ mph) and EF-2 tornadoes. Although, the
greatest environment in our forecast area remains southwest of KY-15
and over the Eastern Bluegrass.

Sunday night, warm temperatures in the low 60s will remain across the
area through midnight. Once the QLCS line moves through between 2-5
AM EDT Monday, temperatures will drop sharply. By 9 AM EDT,
temperatures will likely be in the low 30s to near 50 from west to
east across the area.

Monday, temperatures will continue to fall through the day with highs
in the upper 30s to near 50 from west to east. Notice how there`s
little to no change from "Sunday nights" low temperature and Mondays
high temperature. That`s because they will likely occur within a few
hours of each other Monday morning as this front goes through. Rain-
snow will eventually change over to snow showers through the morning
Monday, and continue through the early evening. General snow
accumulations of a half inch are expected, though the high terrain
of Bell and Harlan counties could see 1-2 inches of snow. It is also
important to note that given how warm its been, it may take a while
to accumulate on grassy surfaces. As the surface low and cold front
both lift towards the Upper Great Lakes, a tightening pressure
gradient will lead to windy conditions through the day, winds are
forecasted with sustained winds of 15-25 mph and gusts 25-30 mph.
This will lead to wind chills  10 degrees colder than the air
temperature, falling into the low to upper 20s by late afternoon,
and trending colder there after.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 419 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026

Low level cold air advection in moist, brisk upslope flow will be
ongoing at the start of the period. With the mixed convective
layer extending through the DGZ, snow showers to varying extent
will be ongoing, with the greatest concentration in the favored
terrain of southeast KY. Based on forecast soundings, the NBM POP
looked underdone and the POP was raised for the official forecast
on Monday night. There is still some concern that it may not be
high enough. With time, the frontal inversion will be lowering and
the moisture will be mixing away, and by Tuesday morning nothing
more than flurries should remain over the eastern portion of the
forecast area. The last of the flurries then end on Tuesday and
skies clear as surface high pressure builds in from the west.

With clear skies and light winds with high pressure overhead to
start Tuesday night, temperatures should readily fall during the
evening. A shortwave trough will approach in northwest flow aloft
overnight, while warm air advection returns as the surface high
departs to the east. The shortwave and isentropic lift will
result in increasing clouds which should halt the fall for
temperatures later in the night. How quickly the clouds thicken
will affect how cold it gets, which leads to some uncertainty for
low temperatures.

The column will be moistening largely from the top down Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Eventually, drying aloft will begin on
Wednesday. What is uncertain is whether or not virga can moisten
the lower levels enough to allow for precip to reach the ground on
Wednesday before the drying aloft occurs. At this point, low POPs
for precip (rain and/or snow) are being carried only in our
northern counties on Wednesday.

Overall, a warming trend is forecast Wednesday through Friday,
with mild temperatures then persisting during the weekend.
Model discrepancies grow during the period, particularly
concerning timing/placement of surface systems. However,
generalized west northwest flow aloft is expected, without
conditions favorable for significant moisture return, and the POP
is placed at 20% or less each period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026

VFR conditions prevail through most TAF period. There may be
smoke from a previous prescribed/wildland fire in the Daniel Boone
National Forest. Periodic visibility obstructions due to
smoke are possible at or in the vicinity of the LOZ and SME
airfields through 14Z. In addition to the outside smoke chance,
LLWS is in each TAF through 13-14Z this morning, with southerly
winds up to 35 knots expected at all terminals. A low-level jet
develops ahead of an approaching strong cold front, leading to the
LLWS threat. After 14Z Sunday morning conditions will be gusty at
all terminals due to this low- level jet. -SHRA start to work into
the area around and after 06Z with a strong cold front. -RA will
take over at most TAF sites before the end of the TAF period.
Lower ceilings and some vis reductions intro MVFR are expected.
Winds will gust 20-25 kts.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ044-050-051-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083-084.

Dense Smoke Advisory until noon EDT today for KYZ079-080-083>085-
116-117.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GINNICK
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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