Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

206
FXUS63 KJKL 232043
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
343 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A major winter storm brings significant, impactful snow and ice
  accumulations this weekend.

- Bitter cold weather returns tonight and lasts through next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 342 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026

As of 19Z, mid and high level clouds are mixing in with sun.
Temperatures across Eastern Kentucky range from the upper 20s to low
40s from north to south. Skies will remain partly cloudy through
most of the overnight, and allow for temperatures to drop from the
upper 20s and low 40s, into the single digits along and north of the
Mountain Parkway. Elsewhere temperatures will cool into the low
teens. This has prompted the issuance of a Cold Weather Advisory,
highlighting very cold wind chills as low as 5 below zero. Frostbite
and hypothermia will occur if unprotected skin is exposed to these
temperatures. Clouds then quickly move into the area by sunrise.

As many know by now, a winter storm is set to impact an area from
Texas to the Mid-Atlantic, including Kentucky, over the weekend.
Models and ensembles continue to have gradual shifts northward. At
this point the GFS suite of models are emerging as the outlier,
failing to phase the low like others. This has led to a colder
solution across those model runs, and as a contributing weight to
the National Blend of Models (NBM) it may be inflating some of the
snow totals. The ECMWF ensembles continue to track north as well,
now brining the heaviest snows along and north of the I-64 corridor.
Moisture transport appears abundant, and 850-mb temperatures as warm
as 7-9 Celsius in the southeast continue to support a strong warm-
nose Saturday into Sunday. This will result in a period of mixed
wintry precipitation, including snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain.
At current a Winter Storm Warning remains issued for all of Eastern
Kentucky, with heavy snow expected along and northwest of a line
from Pulaski to Pike County. Snowfall totals in this area will range
from 7 to 14 inches with the highest amounts along and north of the
I-64 corridor. Heavy mixed precipitation is also expected, with
total ice accumulations of 0.1 to 0.4 of an inch. Heavy mixed
precipitation is also expected along and southeast of a line from
Pulaski to Pike County. Total snowfall in this area will range from
3 to 7 inches with total ice accumulations of 0.1 to 0.5 of an inch.

Snow will start out with snow ratios close to 15-1 late Saturday
morning. Snow ratios will gradually fall through the afternoon and
evening. They will fall the sharpest along and nearest to the
Tennessee and Virgina State line, where by 7 PM ratios could be as
low as 4 or 6-1. If still snowing, snow would be wet and heavy.
Sleet, freezing rain, and rain will slowly creep further north
through the overnight hours Saturday and into Sunday morning,
eventually reaching the I-64 corridor by Sunday afternoon. The
trough axis is expected to move through Eastern Kentucky during the
afternoon on Sunday leading to colder air being ushered back into
the area, and a transition back over to snow will occur from
northwest to southeast. Snow showers may continue through Sunday
night through Monday morning. Temperatures Sunday will range from
the upper 20s to mid 40s from north to south. With the trough axis
moving through Sunday afternoon, lows drop into the single digits to
low teens at night. Wind chill values will range from 5 above to 5
below zero.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 202 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026

A trailing shortwave crosses the area later in the day Monday, which
will likely provide some enhancement to cold advection snow on the
back side of the major winter storm for Monday afternoon and
evening. Any accumulations will be very minor, however, as moisture
will be a limiting factor, but are likely underdone currently given
the dynamics with this trailing upper tropospheric PV anomaly
tracking across the Tennessee Valley and southern Ohio Valley.

Arctic air settles over the region with flurries continuing into
Tuesday morning. However, the big story by this time will be the
cold, with widespread lows in the zero to 10 below zero range
forecast, which will likely require cold weather headlines. The one
saving grace is if clouds and flurries linger just a few hours
longer than anticipated in Tuesday, which may keep temperatures
closer to zero or perhaps just slightly above.

Additional clipper systems will graze or move across the area
through the remainder of the long-term period, producing at least
occasional rounds of flurries, and in the case of a stronger system
late Wednesday into early Thursday, additional (light) measurable
accumulations of snow. The LREF depicts at least a 50 percent chance
for measurable snow (0.1-inch or greater) across the entire forecast
area with this system, with a 15 to 25 percent chances for 1 inch or
more of snow accumulation.

Each system will also be followed by reinforcing shots of cold,
meaning temperatures will remain below freezing through the end of
next week. In particular, next Friday morning may see another round
of sub-zero readings if current trends manifest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026

North to northwest winds at 12 kts or less are expected to
gradually transition to a more northeasterly direction after 00z
this evening.

VFR conditions persist through the TAF period - though with a
lowering cloud deck beginning after ~10z and lasting through the
remainder of the TAF period. PROB30 groups have been added for the
very end of the TAF period for the possibility that MVFR
conditions arrive a couple of hours sooner than currently
forecast.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to noon EST
Saturday for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-
106>120.

Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Monday for
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...CMC