Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

069
FXUS63 KJKL 022329
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
729 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost and freezing temperatures are expected late tonight and
  early Sunday in most valleys.

- Below normal temperatures and mainly dry weather will prevail
  through Sunday.

- Showers and/or thunderstorms are possible at times from Sunday
  night to Saturday, with the greatest probability from Tuesday night
  into Wednesday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 655 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026

The forecast remains largely on track this evening. Some light
rain and/or drizzle/sprinkles have been reported around the CWA
this afternoon, and additional light returns are currently noted
on radar. Dry dewpoints in the upper 20s/lower 30s suggest that
not all of this activity is reaching the ground. While dewpoints
are slightly higher (closer to 40) in our southwestern counties,
thunder appears increasingly unlikely. So, thunderstorm chances
were removed from the forecast for the rest of the evening. Model
consensus continues to depict a clearing trend after dark tonight,
which should yield efficient radiational cooling. We will be
monitoring satellite trends this evening, as MinT forecast
adjustments may be needed if cloud cover hangs around longer.
This is not the favored forecast solution though. Valley MinTs
near/below freezing and widespread frost formation are still
expected tomorrow morning. Frost/Freeze headlines have been
issued for the entire CWA, and interests with sensitive plants
are accordingly encouraged to take any necessary protective
actions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 405 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026

As of mid afternoon, an upper level low was centered over Quebec
with the axis of the associated upper level trough extending across
the Central Great Lakes to Lower OH Valley to Lower MS Valley
vicinity. Further west, an upper level ridge extended from near the
Baja region into the southwest Conus to portions of the Great Basin.
A shortwave moving through the trough was also traversing the Lower
OH Valley. Ahead of this shortwave, scattered sprinkles and a few
light showers were present and moving across portions of central and
eastern KY. More robust convection was across sections of south
central Ky into western KY and some thunder was also occurring with
that activity. An additional shortwave was upstream near the
Manitoba and Saskatchewan border with ND in the northwest flow that
extends from western Canada into the trough. At the surface, a
frontal zone extended from sfc low pressure well east of the
Carolinas to the FL peninsula to the Gulf while a sfc high was
centered in the Central Conus/mid MS Valley area. Further upstream a
sfc low pressure system was preceding the shortwave trough near the
US/Canadian border. Mid afternoon dewpoints are in the upper 20s to
mid 30s.

This evening and tonight, the upper trough axis will move east of
eastern KY this evening followed by a period of height rises at 500
mb. The sfc ridge will also build across the Lower OH Valley and TN
Valleys to the Lower MS Valley. This should result in a decrease in
clouds through the evening as well as sprinkles or scattered
showers/or stray storm in the Lake Cumberland vicinity.
Winds will also slacken and given the afternoon dewpoints mainly in
the lower 30s and some upper 20s, lows in that range for valleys and
low lying areas is probable while coalfield ridgetop locations
likely remain a bit above freezing near the 35 degree mark. The
Freeze Watch was upgraded to a Freeze Warning earlier and four
additional counties to the west were added to it. Further west where
dewpoints have been more in the mid 30s so far, a frost advisory was
hoisted with the Frost and Freeze Headlines in effect from midnight
tonight to 9 AM on Sunday.

Not much change in 500 mb heights occurs on Sunday while the sfc
ridge of high pressure shifts to the east and southeast of eastern
KY. This will result in temperatures moderating into the 60s, but
still remaining about 10 degrees colder than normal for early May.
Normal highs for this time of year are in the low to mid 70s.
At the same time, the shortwave currently nearing the Northern
Plains move in northwest flow to the Great Lakes to OH Valley and
yet another shortwave in the northwest to west northwest flow
reaches the Lower OH Valley for Sunday evening/Sunday night. A
frontal zone will also approach the OH Valley and weaken. This
system will have limited moisture and instability to work with, but
scattered showers and a few storms crossing eastern KY Sunday night
is the consensus of the guidance with isentropic lift/WAA. QPF from
that activity should generally be light, a tenth of an inch or less.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 351 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026

The forecast period begins Monday morning with the arrival of a
shortwave perturbation diving toward the CWA ahead of a much
stronger upper-level trough. This initial wave is progged to bring
increasing chances of showers and storms early Monday, with PoPs
ranging from 25 percent in the southwest to 50 percent northeastward
toward the Big Sandy Basin. While the diurnal timing is not
favorable for severe convection, some rumbles of thunder remain
possible. Aside from precipitation chances, temperatures will begin
to rise as highs are progged to climb into the 70s. As the quick-
moving shortwave exits to the east, PoP chances will decrease Monday
night. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the low to upper
50s. Should clouds clear, the combination of antecedent moisture and
light winds will likely lead to valley fog through early Tuesday.

Tuesday brings renewed threats of showers and thunderstorms as the
primary shortwave dives southeast from Canada into the northern
CONUS. As this occurs, the associated upper-level circulation will
settle into the northern Great Lakes. At the surface, the low-
pressure center will track toward the Great Lakes, trailing a cold
front that is progged to extend southwestward through the CONUS and
reach the doorstep of the CWA by Tuesday morning. This setup will
facilitate showers and storms throughout the day. However, the front
is expected to stall over the region, becoming a focal point for an
extended period of convection as surface features ripple along the
zone of baroclinicity.

With multiple rounds of precipitation expected, forecast QPF for
this period remains high. Based on the current model suite, total
QPF from Tuesday afternoon through late Thursday night ranges from
nearly 3.00 inches in northern areas to 2.00 inches along the high
terrain of Pike and Letcher Counties. Once the boundary finally
shifts through the area, brief surface high pressure will build into
the region before another system approaches for the weekend.

Overall, the period is progged to be active. A weak shortwave
arrives Monday, followed by multiple perturbations riding along a
stalled front from Tuesday afternoon through late Thursday night. A
brief reprieve from the rain is expected Friday, but this will be
cut short by another potential system for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026

VFR conditions without significant wind continue to be forecast
through the period. Decreasing cloud cover can be expected
through 06z before clear skies at all sites develop through 18z,
before mid and high clouds begin to move in from the northwest
through the remainder of the TAF period.

North to northwest winds will continue to diminish through
01z-02z this evening, if not sooner, with winds becoming light and
variable as high pressure settles overhead tonight. As the high
moves east Sunday, south to southwest winds at less than 10 kts
are anticipated.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-069-080-085>088-104-106>120.

Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for
KYZ068-079-083-084.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARCUS
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...CMC