Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

797
FXUS63 KJKL 301437
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
937 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A widespread dry and fluffy snow event is expected through
  Saturday, primarily across southeastern Kentucky. Highest
  accumulations are expected near the KY-VA border.

- Cold weather lasts through the upcoming weekend, with at least a
  brief warming trend following early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2026

The well advertised west-east oriented snow band continues to
slowly develop across the middle of the JKL CWA late this morning,
with most of the light snowfall remaining south of the Mountain
Parkway. As the day progresses, this band should continue to
slowly intensify and begin its slow counterclockwise pivot to a
more SW-NE orientation. The hi-res models are in decent agreement
showing the inflection point of the band being near the VA-KY
border, thus keeping the most persistent snowfall from Pike down
to Harlan counties. As the 12Z data arrives, we will be assessing
the potential for an upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning.

UPDATE Issued at 621 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2026

Minor updates to PoPs were made through the short-term, mainly
upwards, with a sharper gradient to PoPs on the northwest
periphery of the PoP field.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 401 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2026

A high-amplitude low-wavelength upper trough continues to move south
to the Ohio Valley tonight from the Upper Midwest, then reaches the
Southeast US coastline Saturday evening. Ahead of this trough,
strong curvature vorticity just upstream of eastern Kentucky and the
right-front entrance region of a mid-level jet stream will help
contribute to a west-east oriented area of frontogenesis across the
center of the forecast area this morning, which will slowly pivot
south and southeast through the day today and into tonight. This
area of frontogenesis will largely serve as the forcing mechanism
initially for steady snow development, with increasingly orthogonal
low-level flow through the day Saturday contributing to an
increasingly orographically-induced light snow event more typical of
southeastern Kentucky.

Overall, the primary issues remain from the previous forecast
package remain, with decreasing confidence and increasing spread in
guidance as one goes north and west from the VA-KY border area, but
in general the total snow accumulation forecast has trended lower
the farther away from the Virginia border. Nevertheless, trends will
need to continue to be monitored, even as the event begins in just a
few hours across the forecast area, for any potential changes. An
upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning was seriously contemplated for the
morning forecast package for Harlan, Letcher, and Pike counties, but
were ultimately left as a Winter Weather Advisory given the limited
areal extent of 4+ inch snow accumulations forecast as well as the
overall trend lower as one travels from the Virginia border.

While the snow forecast will get most of the attention, the more
impactful weather is likely to be the renewed push of arctic air
into the area today and continuing into the weekend, with dangerous
cold continuing through Sunday morning. Daytime maximum temperatures
Saturday will only reach the teens, which will threaten record low
maximum temperatures for January 31st across the area.

Light cold advection upslope snow and flurries are likely to
continue through much of the remainder of Saturday into Saturday
night along and just upstream of the high terrain near/along the
Virginia border. Localized extensions of the Winter Weather Advisory
past 18z (1 PM EST) Saturday are thus possible for Pike, Letcher,
and Harlan counties.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 247 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2026

Saturday evening, snow showers across the far southeastern counties
of the forecast area, should taper off through the overnight hours.
These remnant snow showers stem from a strong upper-level low over
the North Georgia, which will likely lead to rapid intensification
of a surface low, and a Miller-Type A noreaster. With the 500-mb
trough axis south and east of the state, cold arctic air will remain
over Eastern Kentucky Saturday night. Temperatures will drop into
the single digits leading to wind chills ranging form 5 above to 10
below zero.

Sunday will remain cold, although slightly warmer than Saturday,
with sub-freezing temperatures ranging from the lower to upper 20s.
In fact, the forecasted high of 20 at the airport in Jackson, would
break the 30 year old record, set back in 1996, of 22 degrees if it
were to occur.  Northwesterly winds will gradually lighten and shift
out of the southwest overnight, under clear skies. Ridge-valley
splits are expected to occur, with colder valleys in the single
digits, close to zero, whereas ridgetops may be a few degrees
warmer. The forecasted low of 9 degrees at the Jackson airport would
tie the record set back in 2013. Clouds will increase through the
night heading into Monday. This is because a low pressure moves
across the Great Lakes region, with a warm front extending south
into the Ohio Valley. At current, shower chances remain to low to
include in the forecast (under 15%). Monday will mark the first time
Eastern Kentucky will see temperatures above freezing since Friday
night. Temperatures are forecasted to warm into the low to upper
30s, with lows in the lower 20s, and upper teens in colder spots.

Tuesday and beyond, models are showing signals of a strong ridge
over the West Coast, while a lee-side trough takes shape over the
Northern and Central Plains. A shortwave is modeled to move through
this trough in the middle of the US, which may bring active weather
to Eastern Kentucky Tuesday through Thursday. Timing and evolution
of this system is likely to change. Beyond that, the next short-wave
to ride over the ridge in the West and spill into the Plains,
could arrive to Kentucky sometime Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 626 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2026

A frontogenetically-forced band of light snow has developed mostly
along and south of the Mountain Parkway, and will continue to
expand and extend south through the southeastern terminals through
the daytime hours. Cigs will likely not get any lower than MVFR,
but viz reductions to IFR, at least briefly, will be possible
within heavier bursts of snow. Winds will generally be northeast
to north at 5 kts or less today through tonight.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to noon EST Saturday for KYZ044-
050>052-068-069-079-080-083>085.

Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for KYZ058-
107-111.

Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM EST Saturday for KYZ068-069-
079-080-083-084-109-112-114-119.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Saturday for KYZ085>088-
110-113-115>118-120.


&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC