Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

539
FXUS63 KJKL 131852
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
252 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unsettled weather and widespread rain shower chances return
  late tonight into Sunday.

- Storms on Sunday could produce locally heavy rain, potentially
  leading to localized flooding, along with strong to locally
  damaging wind gusts.

- Expect cooler than normal temperatures to begin the work week as
  broad troughing dominates the weather pattern aloft.

- Unsettled weather is poised to return for the middle to later
  part of next week. Strong to severe storms are possible
  Thursday, and locally heavy rain is possible Wednesday night
  through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 246 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026

An active zonal pattern is expected through the short-term period on
the south side of a large trough over southern Canada. Within this
zonal flow, a disturbance approaches the area this evening, crossing
the area late tonight through Sunday morning. This is followed by
another disturbance with an associated cold front crossing the area
late Sunday afternoon into early evening, with another disturbance
moving into the Lower Ohio River Valley by dawn Monday behind the
front.

The leading edge of the initial shortwave arrives this evening, and
will serve to push a more humid air mass northeast across the area
overnight into Sunday, with upper 50s to mid-60s dew points this
evening rising to the upper 60s to mid-70s by late Sunday morning.
This rising moisture and resulting instability will support an MCS,
or remnants of an MCS, that is likely to move into the area around
daybreak Sunday from the west, bringing increased shower and
thunderstorm chances. Then, as the initial convective activity exits
the area, the arrival of a second shortwave by mid- to late
afternoon, along with any appreciable surface heating that can occur
within the humid air mass, should support a second round of showers
and storms along and ahead of the cold front crossing the area.

A Marginal Risk for severe storms exists for Sunday, with the
highest probabilities for an isolated severe storm primarily across
counties bordering VA and TN from I-75 east, with probabilities
increasing further as one moves south and east of the area. Damaging
winds would be the primary threat with any storms that can become
organized. A Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall also exists
areawide, with repeat rounds of heavy rain possibly causing some
isolated/localized high water issues.

A much cooler and drier air mass moves into the area for Sunday
night behind the cold front. However, enough low-level moisture with
steady weak cold advection will remain ahead of aforementioned final
disturbance approaching the area to keep mostly cloudy skies in the
forecast banked against the high terrain along/near the Virginia
border through 12z Monday. At least some patchy fog in sheltered
valleys would be possible where there is clearing, despite weak cold
advection.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026

There is reasonable agreement among the various model suites to
begin the long term period. That said, we will see a drier and
cooler airmass settling across the Ohio Valley Monday under
northwest flow. This will keep highs in the low to mid 70s for many
locations and this is about 10 degrees below normal for JKL. This
drier weather will roll on at least through Tuesday making for a
good time for outdoor activities.

After a drier and cooler pattern, we will see a warm front progress
northward by midweek. This will usher in a warmer and moist airmass
across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This front will then sag
southward as a cold front by Thursday. The pattern will likely be
more mesoscale driven at times, with characteristics of a MCS
like pattern. This makes predictability on the lower side, but
either way the pattern will become increasingly more active
especially by Thursday given the synoptic features at play. Some
of the guidance suggests decent chance of seeing MUCAPE values
climb to around 2000- 3000 J/kg Thursday afternoon. The effective
shear will be a bit more lack luster at around 30-35 knots, but
this could allow for at least some organization of convection that
develops. Overall the main threat at this point would be damaging
winds given the high freezing levels noted while sampling area
forecast soundings. That said, there would be a risk of heavy
rainfall as well, with the aforementioned high freezing levels
and PWATs in the 1.5 to 2 inch range (Values running around 90th
percentile or higher for this time of year). There is also a
notable strengthening 850 mb jet through the late afternoon and
evening. This setup bares watching through the week to see how the
guidance trends. This boundary will move southward to end the
week and this would lead to drier weather by late next week into
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected areawide into tonight under passing
high clouds. Some valley fog is likely, but is not expected to
impact TAF sites. Otherwise, convection likely moves into the
area from the west between 06z and 12z Sunday, and prevailing and
PROB30 groups have been issued to cover the onset of this activity
through the remainder of the TAF period. Brief reductions to MVFR
or lower conditions are possible as this activity moves across TAF
sites.

Winds will remain light and variable through ~06z, then will
gradually increase from the southwest through the remainder of the
period, but generally remain at or below 10 kts sustained.
Isolated stronger gusts are possible near and within any showers
and storms late tonight through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...CMC