Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

851
FXUS63 KJKL 032034
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
434 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures and dry weather will prevail through
  this evening.

- Temperatures moderate to a few degrees above normal for Monday
  and Tuesday, before below normal temperatures return to end the
  week.

- Showers and/or thunderstorms are possible at times from tonight
  through Saturday, with the greatest probability from Tuesday
  night into Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 405 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026

Late this afternoon, a broad upper level trough extended from the
Hudson Bay vicinity across central to eastern portions of Canada
and into the parts of the Central to eastern Conus. Upstream, a
shortwave was nearing the western Great Lakes to Lower OH Valley
while another shortwave in northwest flow extended across the
Dakotas to WY to MT vicinity trekking into the Norther Plains.
Further upstream, a shortwave trough was moving across parts of
Manitoba and Saskatchewan around an enlongated upper level low
that extends from Hudson Bay to northern Manitoba. At the surface,
temperatures across eastern KY have moderated as high pressure
has shifted to the southeast and a weakening front begin to
approach the Lower OH Valley and mid MS Valley region. Mixing has
resulted in dewpoint in the mid 20s to mid 30s range as of 3 PM
EDT while there has been very little cloud cover thus far.
However, mid and high level clouds ahead of the upstream shortwave
were approaching the region from the northwest.

This evening and tonight, the first shortwave upstream will track
across the Lower and Middle OH Valley regions tonight while the
one nearing the Northern Plains at present arrives in the mid MS
Valley late tonight. At the same time, the more potent shortwave
rotating around the enlongated upper level low will arrive into
a western Ontario to upper MS Valley line while an upper level
trough develops into the Northern to Central Plains to Mid to
Upper MS Valley area. The preceding shortwave should cross the OH
Valley Region and Commonwealth Monday evening.  The enlongated
upper level low should become centered over Northern Ontario by
Monday evening with the shortwave rotating round it nearing the
Central Great Lakes to parts of the Upper to mid MS Valley. The
axis of the upper level trough should remain west of eastern KY
through the end of the period. Meanwhile, a weakening frontal zone
will approach the OH Valley tonight and then become diffuse north
and northwest of the Lower OH Valley. A more potent sfc system
should track across Manitoba to Ontario to near the James Bay
region through the period with the associated sfc cold front
gradually dropping across the western and Central Great Lakes to
mid MS Valley to end the period.

Warm air advection and the passing shortwave tonight to early on
Monday should result in isolated to scattered convection as early
as this evening, with chances peaking after midnight to near dawn.
On Monday, 500 mb height rises are anticipated in general with
nearly neutral 500 mb height tendencies Monday night or slight
rises. This should result in mainly dry weather once convection
winds down near or just after dawn on Monday. Ahead of convection
tonight, sheltered valleys in the east and south should be clear
or mostly clear and may drop well into the 40s before potentially
rebounding as clouds increase. Temperatures continue a moderating
trend on Monday back to a bit above normal levels.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026

The forecast period begins Tuesday morning with the area starting
dry, though a cold front will quickly approach the CWA. This setup
is driven by a mid-level trough digging southeast from Canada into
the northern CONUS, with an associated upper-level closed low
settling over the northern Great Lakes. At the surface, the parent
low-pressure center will track toward the Great Lakes, dragging a
cold front oriented southwest across the central CONUS. While this
front is forecast to move into the area Tuesday, the surface low
appears to occlude. This will cause the front to lose forward
momentum and stall across the region. This boundary will facilitate
showers and thunderstorms throughout the day and serve as the focal
point for an extended period of convection as weak surface waves
ripple along the zone of baroclinicity.

In previous model runs, the Tuesday and Wednesday front was depicted
as crossing through the area, followed by a second system on
Thursday that brought widespread QPF exceeding 3.00 inches. In this
afternoons model suite, the Tuesday and Wednesday system remains
consistent; however, the secondary feature is progged to dive
further south. This shift lowers total QPF to just over an inch
across the Bluegrass, with amounts up to 2.00 inches possible near
the Cumberland Basin and Tennessee border. The boundary is forecast
to finally exit the area Thursday morning, ushering in a period of
surface high pressure. This dry window will be short-lived, as
another perturbation is progged to dive southeast toward the
Commonwealth late Friday. This will bring increasing shower and
thunderstorm chances through the remainder of the forecast period.

Overall, the period is expected to be active as multiple
perturbations ride along the stalled boundary from Tuesday afternoon
through late Thursday night. A brief reprieve from the precipitation
is expected Friday, though this will be cut short by another
potential system arriving for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026

VFR conditions will largely prevail through the TAF period. An
increase in mid and high clouds is anticipated with convection
possible between 00Z and the end of the period as a disturbance
approaches. These chances should peak between 06Z and 12Z.
PROB30s continue to be included in the TAFs for the timeframes
when probabilties of showers or a stray storm and potential MVFR
reductions are highest. Winds should average southwest to south
at less than 10KT through around 14Z, before becoming more
southwesterly at 7to 13KT with gusts as high as about 20KT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...JP