Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

066
FXUS63 KJKL 180558 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
158 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing winds just above the surface are expected overnight
  into early Thursday. Gusts outside of storms of 30 to 40 mph are
  possible and could be stronger near and north of I-64.

- Storm chances return through Thursday night. Some storms could
  approach severe limits toward dawn north of the Mtn Pkwy, and
  across all of eastern KY on Thursday.

- The primary threat from storms late tonight and Thursday will be
  damaging wind gusts. Isolated flash flooding is also possible
  should locations receive repeated rounds of heavy rainfall.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1204 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2026

Southwesterly winds have continued to advect moisture into the
forecast area, with dewpoints in the 70s now just upstream of our
southwestern counties. Meanwhile, current radar imagery shows
convection is currently ongoing to our northwest, with the
strongest storms presently located over south central Indiana.
These storms will likely upscale and congeal into a line that
will push southeast into the northernmost portion of our forecast
area by early Thursday morning. With an intense low level jet
overspreading eastern Kentucky at that time (50-60 kt flow at 850
mb), shear will be anomalously high, especially in the low levels.
Notably, there is general model consensus that over 40 kts of 0-1
km shear will be present in the northern portion of our forecast
area. Given such volatile kinematics, a tornado watch was issued
for Fleming County where confidence is highest that these storms
will persist.

Despite these high-end kinematics, the thermodynamic environment
looks much less impressive, with current mesoanalysis indicating
only meager surface-based instability across eastern Kentucky.
That being said, given the expected persistence of relatively
strong southwesterly winds overnight, it is plausible that WAA
and moisture advection could allow for adequate instability to
build, particularly given such rich moisture upstream.
Additionally, current observations show some portions of the
forecast area remain in the 80s even as we approach midnight,
demonstrating that overnight temperatures will be warm despite the
unfavorable diurnal timing of these storms. As such, thermodynamic
trends will bear monitoring in subsequent updates. In short, the
tornado risk currently remains dependent on whether enough
instability can build and storms can remain surface-based.
Additionally, impacts to eastern Kentucky will remain highly
dependent on the evolution of upstream convection.

Beyond convective hazards, the forecast was nudged to be more in
line with observations, and PoPs were increased in the northern
portion of our forecast area to account for radar trends.

UPDATE Issued at 721 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2026

Current observations show dewpoints generally running higher
than forecast, courtesy of moisture advection via southwesterly
winds. These observations were incorporated and forecast
dewpoints were increased going into early Thursday morning to
account for this trend. Additionally, with ongoing convection
upstream (presently located primarily in central to southern
Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio) current satellite imagery shows
cloud cover increasing over the forecast area. Therefore, sky
grids were adjusted to account for these clouds moving in earlier
than originally forecast. Finally, current radar shows a few
stray areas of very light precipitation moving through Fleming
County; thus, sprinkles were added in the far north portion of the
forecast area over the next two hours to account for this weak
activity, although the remainder of the forecast area is expected
to remain dry over the next few hours. Beyond that, temperatures
were nudged to observations, although the forecast otherwise
remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 345 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2026

As of 18Z, satellite shows a cu-field moving through the area
from the south-southwest with higher stratus clouds streaming into
the area from the Northwest, part of the ongoing MCS in the Ohio
Valley. Temperatures currently range from the low to mid 80s
across the area. 500-mb height analysis shows a broad trough
across much of the CONUS extending from the Pacific Northwest
into New England. Within this trough are a few shortwaves the
first of which is over the Ohio Valley. At current this MCS in the
Ohio Valley is being fueled by instability and strong shear. This
shear, is driven by a 50-60 kt LLJ at 850-mb. This LLJ will pass
through Eastern Kentucky through the evening hours leading to
strong southerly to southwesterly winds that could gust as high as
30-40 mph. A few gusts to 45 mph are possible. Gusty winds will
blow around unsecured objects and could make driving more
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles on east-west
oriented roads. An SPS has been issued for the forecast area for
this threat. With elevated winds expected through the evening,
temperatures will remain elevated, in the low to mid 70s.

Showers and thunderstorms also work into the area from the northwest
overnight through Thursday. Across the four northern most counties
(Fleming, Bath, Montgomery, and Rowan), there`s a threat of
thunderstorms repeatedly passing over the same locations which could
lead to isolated flash flooding in low lying areas from late tonight
through early Thursday morning. A Flood Watch has been issued for
that area from 9 PM this evening through 9 AM Thursday morning. As
this convective line shifts south and the boundary potentially
stalls, the flood threat will likely shift further south through
Thursday afternoon. Since the environment is favorable, the WPC has
put the I-64 corridor and north in slight risk (level 2 of 4) for
excessive rainfall through 12Z/8am Thursday. When this line first
works into the area early Thursday morning, some residual shear from
the 50-60kt LLJ along with 1000-1300 J/kg of MUCAPE will create a
conditional environment for severe weather, where a brief weak
tornado could occur within a line of storms. This threat would
generally be along and north of a line from Somerset to West
Liberty. The SPC has added areas generally along and north of the I-
64 corridor in a slight risk (level 2 of 5 ) for severe weather
through 8am/12Z Thursday morning. This is for the low end tornado
threat and the wind threat.

As the line of storms moves further south through the day Thursday,
the WPC and SPC have shifted their slight risk outlooks from the I-
64 corridor and area south. Temperatures warm into the low to mid
80s Thursday before cooling into the low to mid 60s for most at
night. Showers and thunderstorms should tapper off from northwest to
southeast through the afternoon and late evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 615 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2026

The long wave pattern will be turning more quasi-zonal like this
weekend into next week. This will be characterized by broader
troughing initially spread from the central and northern Plains
through the Eastern Seaboard on Friday, with embedded short wave
energy traversing the flow. Ridging will be sprawled from the
southeastern CONUS through the Four Corners region. The ridging
aligned across the southern CONUS will generally intensify into
next week, particularly near the Four Corners region. Meanwhile,
the broader troughing will also get reinforced east of the Plains,
as additional bouts of short wave energy continue to swing
through the region.

Surface high pressure will gradually work into the area on
Friday, with any shower activity likely drying up early in the
day. Cooler northwest winds will allow for highs in the upper 70s
to around 80 despite mostly sunny skies. Mostly clear sky
conditions will continue into Friday night with calming winds.
This will allow for temperatures to cool back into the 50s for
most valley locations, while ridges stay up closer to the 60
degree mark. Rising 500 mb heights will allow for temperatures to
rebound into the lower 80s on Saturday. The surface high pressure
system will then weaken across the area with an inverted surface
trough taking shape to our west. This boundary will lift northeast
as a warm front Saturday night into Sunday, as a short wave
trough tracks east from the Midwest to the Ohio Valley, with
deepening surface low pressure following suit. Low level moisture
advection will ensue, allowing for a return of better rain chances
across eastern Kentucky by Sunday afternoon. Rain chances will
peak late Sunday night into Monday, as the system`s cold front
gradually crosses the area. Some locally heavy rainfall would be
possible during this time frame, although the period of more
elevated PWATs does look fairly progressive in nature currently.

High pressure will build back in across the Ohio Valley Tuesday
through Wednesday, with mainly drier weather expected across the
area. High temperatures will cool from the mid 80s on Sunday, to
the upper 70s to lower 80s from Monday through Tuesday. Readings
will then warm back to the lower to middle 80s on Wednesday. Lows
each night will be in the 60s, although some upper 50s will be
possible in the deeper valleys both Monday night and Tuesday
night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026

VFR conditions are currently in place at all TAF sites, with
gusts upwards of 25KT. winds will continue to increase ahead of
an approaching cold front, with gusts generally topping out in the
25-30 kt range. At this time, a line of thunderstorms is expected
to organize northwest of the area and affect northern sections of
eastern KY between about 08Z and 12Z, and may impact KIOB and KSYM
and perhaps KJKL and KSJS by 12Z. MVFR to IFR if not briefly lower
ceilings or vis are possible with these. Wind gusts in excess of
35KT could briefly affect KIOB and KSYM and this potential was
included in a PROB30 group. The line of storms may weaken as it
sags south early on Thursday and gusts should gradually decrease
by Thursday afternoon. There may be a bit of a lull in storm
chances between about 12Z and 16Z, with a potentially renewed
chance of storms through at least 00Z. MVFR conditions driven by
visibility reductions and lowered ceilings may become prevailing
for a time, with further reductions briefly possible at terminals
impacted by thunderstorms.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 9 AM EDT this morning for KYZ044-050>052.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAGAN
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...FAGAN/JP