Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

314
FXUS63 KJKL 021734
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
134 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Persistent and breezy, especially in the afternoons, southwest
  winds will continue pushing warmer-than-average and seasonably
  moist air into eastern Kentucky through the rest of week.

- Expect several consecutive days with highs in the upper 70s to
  mid 80s, and mild overnight temperatures bottoming in the 50s
  and 60s.

- Look for daily small chances for showers and storms until a
  stronger cold front moves through the region later this weekend.

- Any showers and storms will provide some needed rainfall across
  portions of eastern Kentucky.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 720 AM EDT THU APR 2 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 500 AM EDT THU APR 2 2026

08Z sfc analysis shows deep low pressure continuing to slowly
progress east toward the area with its warm front extending
west to east through the Ohio Valley - current across our
northernmost counties. Earlier, this front helped generate some
strong to severe storms but this activity has now lifted north out
of the area. Along with the convection, most of the lower and
thicker clouds also departed for the bulk of the night, but a
deck of high ones are now working back in from the northwest. The
lack of thick clouds this night has led to a decent amount of
radiational cooling making for some ridge to valley temperature
differences. Specifically, readings currently range from some
isolated low to mid 50s in the eastern sheltered spots to the
lower and middle 60s on ridges and in the more open terrain.
Meanwhile, amid southerly winds of 5 to 10 mph, dewpoints are
elevated in the mid 50s to lower 60s. In addition, some valley fog
is possible across the area this morning - but especially in the
far north where the majority of recent rainfall is able to take
advantage of mainly just high and thin clouds.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, continue
holding in close agreement aloft through the short term portion
of the forecast. They all depict persistent southwest mid-level
flow between 5h troughing to the north/west and ridging off the
Southeast Coast. An initial trough comes out of the Central Plains
and lifts north into the Great Lakes today and tonight with some
of its weak energy dampening further as it moves into Kentucky. In
its wake, the 5h ridging will work a notch west into eastern
parts of the state on Friday afternoon while the next, stronger,
trough moves into the Northern Plains. The model solutions remain
fairly well aligned through the short term portion of the
forecast, endorsing the NBM as a reasonable starting point for the
grids. The main adjustments made to this initialization were to
incorporate more in the way of details from the latest higher
resolution CAMs for small PoPs and thunder chances through Friday
evening.

Sensible weather features continued warmth and potential for
mainly diurnally driven showers and storms south of a lifting warm
front. Despite being in the parent system`s large warm sector a
lack of a trigger feature will limit convective development and
coverage today - though enough for some gusty winds at times. We
will see a quiet enough start to the night and partly cloudy skies
allowing for a small ridge to valley temperature split to
develop. Likewise, some fog will be possible in the valleys -
especially those that manage to see any rain today. However, a
dying warm front will move west to east across Kentucky late
tonight with the potential for some showers and thunderstorms
slipping into the area towards dawn - continuing as a concern
into the day, Friday - but likely fading out in the afternoon
with the loss of upper support and some building of the mid-level
ridge in eastern Kentucky.

The changes to the NBM starting point mainly consisted of
including more details in the PoPs grids from the latest CAMs
guidance today through Friday afternoon. In this moistened
environment, temperatures and dewpoints were kept mostly as
populated from the NBM with some allowance for radiative cooling
during the first part of tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 432 AM EDT THU APR 2 2026

Heading into the weekend a closed low, located over the Northern
Plains, will progress into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes
through Friday evening and Saturday.

Showers will surround the area around the systems warm front located
north of Kentucky, across the Ohio Valley, and should remain north
of the areas through Friday evening. Low temperatures remain
elevated in the low to mid 60s.

Saturday morning, the systems cold front will reside over the Mid-
Mississippi Valley trailing back into the Southern Plains.
Being in the warm sector through the day, temperatures in Eastern
Kentucky will soar, reaching the lower 80s across the Bluegrass, and
mid to upper 80s further south and east. A line of showers and
thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the above mentioned
cold front in the Mississippi Valley, and will shift east through
the day. While some discrete showers and thunderstorms ahead of the
main convective linear line are possible though the day, the steadier
convective showers and thunderstorms get into Eastern Kentucky
Saturday evening coming from the northwest, progressing southeast
across the area overnight. Through Saturday afternoon, as the front
approaches, winds may become breezy. BUFKIT model soundings show
momentum transfer potential around 25 kts or roughly 30 mph for
gusts. 12Z LREF Ensemble guidance suggests that most of the CWA has
at least a 75% chance of realizing those gusts. The forecasted gusts
from 15-21Z were adjusted up using the 90th percentile of the NBM.

Saturday evening, as mentioned above convective showers and
thunderstorms are likely with the passage of a cold front. The area
might see anywhere from a 0.50-1.0 inch of rain, with the higher
totals concentrated along the Tennessee-Kentucky border. This is
subject to change with higher resolution models capturing the
evolution of this system as it gets closer. Winds will gradually
shift from southwesterly to northwesterly being the front. This ushers
in colder air, leading to Saturday night lows in the mid 40s to near
50 in places.

Sunday morning, showers will slowly taper off in the southeast, as
the cold front remains over the Southern Appalachians. Westerly to
northwesterly winds through the day will continue to bring cooler
conditions to the region. Temperatures Sunday will feel like a shock,
some 20 degrees colder, warming into the upper 50s to low 60s. Clear
skies and CAA will allow temperatures to drop into the upper 30s to
low 40s Sunday night.

On the back side of a departing trough under northerly flow, drier
air works into the area through Wednesday. While winds remain light,
RH`s approach critical conditions. Temperatures during the day
Monday and Tuesday generally remain in the 50s and 60s, warming into
the 60s and low 70s Wednesday. At night, clear skies and light winds
will along with drier air moving in will allow for substantial
radiational cooling and temperatures in the 30s and low 40s. This
could potentially lead to frost development if trends continue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT THU APR 2 2026

VFR conditions are occurring across all TAF sites with the 18Z
issuance. Categorical VFR will prevail through the period as
surface high pressure remains overhead. A widespread cumulus deck
has developed but that`ll remain around the 5K height. Strong
south to southwesterly winds will be the main topic of
conversation through the period. Sustained winds from 10 to 15
knots with gusts 20 to 30 knots will be possible through the
afternoon and early evening. Winds will diminish slightly
overnight and marginal LLWS will be possible where winds are
lightest overnight (KJKL and KSYM) otherwise sites that remain
windy overnight will be turbulent mixing and not meeting LLWS
criteria. Toward 12Z/Friday, the remnants of today`s convective
activity will inch closer to the area with light precipitation
chances. Probabilities are low in the most of the TAF sites minus
KIOB and KSYM where a PROB30 was added to cover any lingering
convective activity. Otherwise, winds start to pick back up after
12Z and persist through the rest of the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...VORST