Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

690
FXUS63 KJKL 141935
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
335 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warming trend takes hold this week, with afternoon highs
  returning to the lower half of the 90s on Wednesday and
  Thursday.

- Mainly dry weather continues through Thursday, with only a slight
  chance for an isolated afternoon storm in the far southern counties.

- Shower and storm chances increase this weekend and persist
  through early next week, with temperatures returning to near
  normal values in the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Afternoon surface analysis reveals that Eastern Kentucky is
sandwiched in between a broad high pressure system over the Wabash
and Upper Ohio River Valleys and a low pressure system/stationary
front down south in the Tennessee Valley. The former is influencing
today`s drier sensible weather conditions across the Bluegrass,
whereas moisture associated with the latter yielded extensive
cumulus cloud development across southern Kentucky this afternoon.
If some of the cumulus clusters are able to deepen sufficiently, an
isolated shower or two cannot be completely ruled out along/south of
the KY-80 corridor later this evening. However, that showery
activity would be much weaker and far less impactful than the
convection observed across the CWA over the past week or so.

There is very little mid/upper-level support for organized
showers/storms across the commonwealth today. The forecast guidance
suite collectively resolves elongated ridging building into the area
aloft. Such synoptics favor efficient diurnal processes, and strong
solar insolation has allowed temperatures to climb into the
mid/upper 80s across the CWA this afternoon. The lower end of that
spectrum falls across southern Kentucky, where cloud coverage is
greatest. The diurnally-driven cumulus clouds should subside area-
wide after sunset and set up efficient radiational cooling tonight.
Valleys should quickly decouple and cool into the 60s by 2am, and
given antecedent dewpoints around that mark, traditional summertime
river valley fog is progged to develop overnight into tomorrow
morning.

Relatively weaker winds from the surface to 925mb suggest that
tonight`s fog will have greater areal coverage than last night`s.
The densest fog will likely remain confined to locales with a nearby
waterway, but patchier fog is plausible even on the ridgetops by
dawn. Expect fog to gradually lift out of the valleys and then burn
off after sunrise.

Persistence forecasting prevails into Wednesday, with mostly the
same synoptic features in place across the region. However, the
ridging aloft is progged to elongate and come in closer proximity to
the CWA throughout the day. This leads to two key differences in
tomorrow`s forecast: warmer temperatures and hazier skies. 850mb
temperatures notably increase to 20-22 degrees in the model
consensus data, which supports more widespread afternoon highs in
the lower 90s tomorrow. Southern locales (where those 850mb temps
are closer to the 20 degree mark), could stay in the 80s for one
more day, especially if a deeper cu field develops again. However,
we generally expect a mid-week warming trend to come to fruition
tomorrow, with most locations seeing highs at least a couple of
degrees warmer than they were today. Apparent temperatures will
remain well below heat advisory criteria, and we are not
anticipating any widespread heat-related health impacts here.

Northwesterly flow around the aforementioned ridging aloft will
advect a drier continental airmass into much of the atmospheric
column tomorrow. This helps keep apparent temperatures in the double
digits, but it may also introduce some Canadian wildfire smoke to
the skies over Northeastern Kentucky. Confidence in the exact
position of the smoke plume aloft is not particularly high given the
lack of ensemble data for this parameter, and there shouldn`t be any
surface-level smoke impacts in our CWA. So, while haze was not
explicitly added to the forecast grids with this afternoon`s
forecast package, the sky may appear less Kentucky blue tomorrow
than it did today. Any smoke that does make it into the area could
cause temperatures to under-perform expectations by a degree or two,
which gives further credence to the notion that the HeatRisk across
our CWA is on the minor side of the spectrum. The risk of an
afternoon pop-up shower/storm is also quite low tomorrow, with
synoptic subsidence suppressing vertical motion in the midlevels.
Therefore, Wednesday`s sensible weather impacts will once again come
from seasonably hot afternoon highs and then our area`s classic
nighttime river valley fog.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

WSW/ESE oriented ridging aloft over the area will be weakening early
in the period. Meanwhile, surface high pressure over the Midwest
will also continue to weaken, which will allow higher moisture
content air previously tied up on the south side of a dying front
over the deep south to migrate northward. The combination of very
warm and more moist air along with conditions aloft less favorable
for convective inhibition should allow a return of showers and
thunderstorms late in the week. A shortwave trough embedded in
northwest flow aloft will approach on Friday and pass on Friday
night into Saturday, giving a temporal peak in POP. A weakening
surface cold front is also expected to approach from the north and
northeast late in the weekend and stall near our area. This could
also provide a focus for additional shower and thunderstorm
development, but with upper support waning, coverage would be more
questionable. A large scale northeast CONUS upper trough will be
deepening early in the new week and will support a more
significant cold front to approach us from the north on Tuesday.
This gives another increase in POP Tuesday or Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026

VFR conditions are observed across the terminals this afternoon,
with a diurnal cu field currently draped across southern
Kentucky. Southwestern terminals could see deeper cu and a stray
shower or two this evening, but rain chances were not high enough
to explicitly mention this in the 18z TAFs. Confidence is higher
in the formation of river valley fog tonight, and TEMPOs have been
introduced at KSME and KLOZ for potential vsby reductions between
08z and 12z. LAMP and BUFKIT guidance bolsters confidence in fog
formation at these two terminals, but it cannot be ruled out
elsewhere, especially later in the morning as fog lifts towards
the ridgetop terminals after sunrise. The forecast looks similar
tomorrow, with fog mixing out in the morning and giving way to
another diurnal cu field (albeit with less spatial coverage).
Expect light and variable sustained winds through the period, with
the occasional wind gust up to 15 knots during peak diurnal
mixing.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MARCUS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...MARCUS