Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

220
FXUS63 KJKL 200005 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
805 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Frost Advisory is in effect tonight for Fleming County. A
  more widespread and impactful frost or freeze is expected Monday
  night into Tuesday morning across much of eastern Kentucky,
  where a Freeze Watch has been issued.

- Elevated fire weather concerns will persist through much of the
  work week due to continued dry conditions.

- Temperatures will quickly rebound starting Tuesday, becoming
  well above normal with highs reaching the 80s by Thursday.

- A weak front brings a slight chance of rain to northern areas
  on Wednesday, but the next significant chance for widespread,
  beneficial rainfall arrives late Friday into next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 740 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure south of the area in control
of the weather over eastern Kentucky as another cold front, mostly
dry, drops into the CWA from the north. This will sneak some
possible sprinkles into this part of the state this evening and
early overnight along with a passing deck of mid level clouds.
Currently, temperatures are running in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
Meanwhile, amid northwest winds of 5 to 10 mph with some lingering
higher gusts, dewpoints are generally in the low to mid 20s. Have
updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends
for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to
the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones,
SPS, and NPWs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 401 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2026

Much cooler and drier weather has arrived behind the cold front which
is now departing off the Mid-Atlantic Seaboard. Thermometer readings
range from the mid 50s to lower 60s across the JKL CWA this
afternoon, except in the mid 40s to low 50s above 2,500 feet while
dew point temperatures range mainly in the 20s. The surface weather
map shows our area on the northeastern edge of a surface high
centered over the Ark-La-Tex. To our northwest a secondary cold front
(associated with a surface low over northern Quebec) is draped from
Lake Huron to northern Missouri and then NW to along the eastern
slopes of the Canadian Rockies. An even cooler and drier Canadian
high is found behind this secondary cold front with readings
across Wisconsin, Minnesota and North Dakota in the 30s/40s and
dew points in the single digits/10s.

Fair and very dry conditions will initially be in place this evening,
allowing temperatures to fall off quickly after sunset. While
available moisture will be limited, cloud cover will increase
overnight as the secondary cold front drops south of the Ohio River.
Some of the guidance supports a little light precipitation, likely in
the form of a few sprinkles, with the frontal passage. The clouds
should arrive in time to slow temperature falls and prevent
widespread frost concerns over most of eastern Kentucky. There is
a low chance that some patchy frost might form in a few sheltered
places out ahead of the increase in cloud cover, especially far
southern Kentucky, but those areas will also be going into the
night with some of the warmest temperatures. The front and
associated cloud cover should clear areas near and north of I-64
late in the night and that is when the northernmost counties,
especially Fleming County, have a chance of quickly dropping into
the mid 30s and experiencing frost formation. Therefore, a Frost
Advisory has been issued for Fleming County from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT
on Monday (aligning well with Frost Advisories from LMK, ILN, and
RLX). An SPS for frost was issued for counties just south of the
Frost Advisories from Elliott to Montgomery counties where there
is a lower but non-zero chance for some frost, especially if the
frontal passage trends toward the faster side. Outside of the
Frost Advisory, most locations should see lows in the upper 30s to
lower 40s (even so a few of the coolest spots outside of the
Frost Advisory could briefly reach the mid 30s as well).

On Monday, any lingering cloud cover and/or sprinkles will exit into
TN and VA during the morning with a cool northwesterly breeze
continuing throughout the day. High temperatures are only expected to
reach the mid 50s to lower 60s on Monday afternoon in spite of
abundant sunshine while dew points dip into the mid 10s to the mid
20s, driest northeast. The Canadian high pressure center scoots to
over the Eastern Great Lakes by Monday evening and crosses the
Appalachians Monday night. The proximity of the high will maintain
the very dry air mass, clear skies and light winds across our area
for most of Monday night (some return flow may try to develop over
central Kentucky toward daybreak Tuesday, but that will still be
after most of a night of cooling). Given the expected efficient
radiative cooling conditions and very dry air mass, temperatures are
likely to fall rapidly after sunset on Monday evening, especially in
the sheltered Coalfield Valleys, and that has warranted the issuance
of a Freeze Watch from 1 AM EDT Tuesday to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for most
areas southeast of the Bluegrass and east of I-75. In the Freeze
Watch area, GFS COOP MOS supports lows of 28 to 32F in many of
the valley locales. Outside of the Freeze Watch area, temperatures
are still expected to approach the freezing mark (and even reach
it in some of the cooler spots) but the dryness of the air mass
could limit frost formation. Given how advanced our growing season
is this year (April is already running 8.5 to 10F warmer than
normal thus far and more like May), a Frost Advisory may
eventually be needed Monday night for most or all of our remaining
counties outside of the Freeze Watch area. Growers are encouraged
to take steps now to protect frost/freeze-sensitive vegetation.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 303 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2026

Overall guidance shows reasonable agreement for the first part of
the long term period. The period begins with a return of above
normal temperatures, as high pressure of the east provides return
flow across the Ohio Valley. Tuesday will feature mostly sunny skies
and highs in the mid to upper 70s. Most of the guidance does show a
weak cold front trying to make it southward toward Kentucky by
Wednesday. However, strengthening mid-level riding and weak moisture
return will make this feature overall lack luster. Even so the NBM
does show enough signal for a few showers (chance of rain 15-40
percent) and perhaps a rumble of thunder mainly along and north of
the Mountain Parkway. Then drier and warm weather return to the area
Thursday, with afternoon highs topping out into the lower 80s.

By the end of the week and going into next weekend there is good
signal for the ridging to break down. We will see another cold front
approach the Ohio Valley by Friday. The front will however
eventually stall out around the Ohio Valley. This is where guidance
does diverge on the synoptic pattern and leads to more uncertainty.
Even so, the pattern does shift to a more active one with quasi-
zonal mid-level flow. Right now the best chance of rain is Friday
night into Saturday where chance of rain will generally be in the 50-
60 percent chance range, which these lower PoP numbers show some of
the aforementioned uncertainty. The mean of the guidance would
suggest rainfall amounts of around three quarters of an inch or less
from Friday night into Sunday for most locations. Hopefully this
will provide at least some relieve to the ongoing weather issues,
but the lack of better upper level support keeps us from the higher
rainfall amounts desired right now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2026

VFR conditions were observed at 00Z TAF issuance and will prevail
through the forecast period. Lingering shallow cu at around 8 to
10 kft AGL will dissipate by mid evening following the loss of
diurnal heating. A moisture-starved cold front drops in from the
north tonight with a period of mid-level cloud cover and the
possibility of a sprinkle or very light rain shower but not worthy
of including in the TAFs.

Winds will be westerly at 8 to 14 kts early. Winds slacken
tonight and become variable with the front overnight before
turning northerly around 5 kts Monday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday for KYZ044.

Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for
KYZ052-060-069-086>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF