Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

762
FXUS63 KJKL 062110
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
410 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow showers and isolated squalls will move through
  tonight. Most areas will see less than half an inch of
  accumulation, leading to scattered slippery road conditions.

- Higher snow totals of up to two inches are expected over the
  higher elevations near the Virginia border through daybreak
  Saturday.

- Arctic chill returns tonight with temperatures plunging into the
  upper single digits and teens. Highs will only reach the 20s on
  Saturday.

- A dramatic warming trend begins Sunday. Temperatures will climb
  to the mid 50s to mid 60s Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 401 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026

Cloudy, cool, and damp conditions linger across most areas east
of I-75 this afternoon with temperatures ranging mainly in the
30s. However, milder temperatures in the 40s to near 50 are noted
in the vicinity of Lake Cumberland. The period of snow and mixed
precipitation from earlier in the day has dropped southeast of the
area with associated developing triple point low now departing
through southwest Virginia. Cold air advection is ongoing as winds
veer northwest behind that system, so cooler air is already
filtering south of the Ohio River. Farther upstream, a secondary
cold front, trailing behind a low over southern Quebec, is
dropping south across the Lower Michigan Peninsula and Wisconsin.

Northwesterly breezes will gradually take hold area-wide this
evening, pulling temperatures back down to around the freezing
mark across the area, though any further impacts will be minimal
until the arrival of the secondary cold front late this evening.
The front itself has very little moisture originating with it, but
hi-res guidance is fairly consistent, noting the potential for
low-level moisture to stream off of Lake Michigan and organize in
one or more lines of snow showers with the boundary`s passage.
While the parameter space is not ideal, the RAP13 does show some
Snow Squall Parameter values exceeding 1, suggesting that there is
at least a low-end threat for an isolated snow squall or two as
well with the strong low-level forcing right along the cold
front. The primary concern with these snow showers would be for
slippery travel conditions in those areas where roads become snow-
covered or liquid moisture lingers long enough to freeze, though
anticipate any impacts to be scattered due to the showery nature
of the precipitation. Any snow accumulations from these squalls
and snow showers will generally be under half an inch. The one
exception is in the Winter Weather Advisory area (Pike, Harlan,
and Letcher counties), where additional amounts of up to 1 inch
are expected at lower elevations and up to 2 inches at elevations
above 2,000 feet through 7 AM Saturday, courtesy of orographic
enhancement.

Behind that boundary, 925 hPa temperatures tumble to around -15C
by daybreak Saturday and only moderate very slowly back to between
0 and -10C by 12z Sunday as the persistent upper level troughing
of recent weeks finally starts to pull away. The associated
height rises will support surface high pressure becoming
established over the Ohio Valley on Saturday, calming the north
breeze but promising a cold and partly cloudy Saturday night.
Temperatures for tonight should range mainly in the 10s, except
into the upper single digits north of I-64. Cold temperatures
follow on Saturday with highs only in the 20s, despite skies
becoming mostly sunny. With good conditions for efficient
radiative cooling in place on Saturday night, minimum
temperatures in the single digits can be expected in the eastern
valleys with low to mid 10s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 235 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in good
agreement aloft through the bulk of the long term portion of the
forecast, though differences start to show up by mid week. They
all depict the welcomed retreat of the long dominant eastern 5h
trough to start the period as the weekend concludes. This retreat
allows for heights to rise over eastern Kentucky, though fast
mid level northwest flow remains. Within this flow, a dampening
shortwave passes southwest of the area Sunday night with the rest
of the impulses staying well northeast of Kentucky through the
start of the new week. At that point, 5h ridging will be pushing
deeper into Kentucky from the southwest for a definitive break in
the overall pattern of the past month or so. Attention then turns
to a southwest trough moving through northern Mexico ahead of
midweek. The ECMWF is slower to progress this wave than the GFS -
in line with their typical biases. This wave also weakens with
time while heading into the Deep South for Wednesday. Meanwhile,
the northern stream flow will start to impinge the Ohio Valley
with another trough edging south. This will bring falling heights
to eastern Kentucky, more so in the GFS than the ECMWF at this
point. Either way, there are good indicators for a chillier end to
the period - just nowhere near as bad as the past few weeks, it
seems. Given the model similarities for the bulk of the period the
NBM looked reasonable as the starting point of the forecast grids
with some adjustments made for overnight temperatures through mid
week via enhanced terrain distinctions.

Sensible weather features the much anticipated warm up and thaw
for the area this upcoming week. Sunday morning starts out plenty
chilly but a nice temperature rise will occur through the day -
especially south where upper 40s will be possible by late
afternoon. To the north, though, sub-freezing temperatures may
hold for one last day. Temperatures fall back into the 20s most
places that night with a more uniform warmup on Monday as
mercury readings climb into the mid 40s north and mid to upper
50s south. Tuesday will be similarly warm with mid 50s north and
low 60s south. However, an series of sfc waves will bring plenty
of clouds and times of rain to the area into the upcoming weekend.
This will help to cap the temperature rise each day. A more
substantial system may be brewing toward the end of the period
with the potential to tap into the still nearby cold air so we
will have to watch for these ingredients trying to come together
in a winter storm in our vicinity next weekend.

The changes to the NBM starting point primarily consisted of
allowing for some extra terrain enhancement for the first few
nights of the extended portion of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 116 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026

An area of snow was crossing the forecast area (primarily east of
I-75) at TAF issuance with widely varying conditions. The snow
will gradually taper off from north to south and yield to mainly
sub-VFR ceilings through the remainder of the daylight hours.
Snow showers are forecast to develop tonight, with the greatest
concentration in southeast KY, They should taper off overnight and
early Saturday. This will also coincide with the return of VFR
conditions which will last through the rest of the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for KYZ088-118-
120.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...GEERTSON