Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

953
FXUS63 KJKL 020026 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
826 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A gradual warming trend will occur late in the week.

- After a lull for most of the week, a shower and thunderstorm
  potential returns for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 815 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026

Mid level clouds are moving across sections of the OH Valley and
Appalachians this evening while a few cumulus or low clouds were
located near the TN/KY border. This cloud cover should diminish
through the night as a boundary gradually sags further to the
south of eastern KY. Minor adjustments were made mainly to account
for recent observations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 434 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026

An upper trough over the northeast CONUS is supporting a cold
front pushing southwest through the southwest part of the JKL
forecast area late today. A vorticity maximum is also evident on
satellite imagery moving southeast over central KY. Showers have
popped up ahead of the front as the vort approaches this
afternoon, and a few showers/thunderstorms may affect our far
southwest locales through early evening. Once the front passes,
drier air will advance through the entirety of the area. This will
persist through Tuesday night as troughing aloft extends south
down the east coast and large surface high pressure drops out of
Canada over the Great Lakes.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 407 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026

The period opens in the midst of the gradual breakdown of the
previous blocking pattern. As the deep upper level trough migrates
off the East Coast, high amplitude ridging extending into the
Great Lakes region will progress eastward, leaving eastern
Kentucky temporarily between these two features. At the surface,
high pressure centered over the Great Lakes will lead to
predominantly northeasterly winds on Wednesday; thus, drier air
will enter the forecast area, and with a dry atmospheric column
owing to northerly flow aloft, these dry conditions will prevail
throughout the day. Courtesy of clear skies, highs will warm into
the upper 70s and low 80s across the area. In terms of sensible
impacts, Thursdays weather will be similar, albeit with slightly
warmer high temperatures (low to mid 80s) as the upper level high
progresses east and height rises are expected aloft. Meanwhile,
the surface highs progression southeast will allow for winds to
become more westerly to southwesterly as the day progresses,
initiating modest low level moisture return, although the middle
and upper level moisture should still remain low enough to
maintain clear skies.

With clear skies and high pressure in place, the primary
deviation from NBM output was to add additional terrain influences
in the area, with a modest ridge-valley temperature split likely
overnight on Wednesday into Thursday morning. With the NBM running
cooler than guidance for ridges and warmer than guidance for
valleys, hourly and low temperatures were adjusted accordingly.
Even so, dewpoints in the upper 40s will provide a reasonable
floor for overnight temperatures in sheltered valleys, and
therefore mainstem river valleys can expect fog on Thursday
morning. With persisting clear skies, low temperatures will again
approach dewpoints overnight Thursday into Friday morning, hinting
at another chance for valley fog in prone areas.

On Friday, the upper level high is expected to drift farther
southeast, but we should get one more day of dry weather before
rain chances return to the forecast. High temperatures will again
be firmly in the 80s, but with a tightening pressure gradient and
southwesterly winds around the high over the southeast, moisture
return will continue. Dewpoints in the upper 50s or perhaps even
the 60s will be possible by Friday afternoon, and as the upper
level ridge continues to break down and the pattern aloft becomes
quasi-zonal, chances for showers and thunderstorms return to the
area starting on Saturday. In the absence of more defined synoptic
forcing, rain chances look to be relatively low on Saturday, but
by Sunday an upper level low over the upper Midwest/southern
Canada and its associated surface cyclone over the Great Lakes
region will push eastward. Concurrently, an upper level low over
the Southern Plains will also be progressing eastward, with a
broad area of modest height falls aloft. Accordingly, chances for
showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms increase again Sunday.
While the details of these upper level features are not fully
resolvable at this time, a shift towards a marginally wetter
pattern appears likely going into the late weekend and the start
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 825 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026

Some mainly mid and high level clouds will linger to begin the
period, but high pressure will dominated and lead to mainly VFR as
a boundary continues to sag south of eastern KY. The one caveat to
VFR will be the potential for valley fog with reductions to IFR or
possibly lower at times between 05Z and 13Z, though TAF locations
are not expected to be affected. Winds through the period will be
light and variable or northeast to north at generally less than
10KT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...JP