Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

456
FXUS63 KJKL 160350 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1150 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot summer weather continues Thursday, with widespread heat
  indices in the 90s. A few locations may experience maximum heat
  indices around 100 degrees during the afternoon.

- Chances for isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms
  return to the forecast Thursday across the southwestern half of
  the area.

- Shower and storm chances increase this weekend as high
  temperatures return to near-normal values in the 80s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1150 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 730 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure in control of the weather
over eastern Kentucky in conjunction with an upper level ridge
above the area. This is working to clear the skies and keeping
the winds light to calm. Expect a small ridge to valley split to
develop later tonight along with areas of fog - becoming locally
dense in the valleys. Currently, temperatures are running in the
low to mid 80s most places. Meanwhile, amid light and variable
winds, dewpoints are generally in the increasingly muggy low to
mid 70s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs
and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have
been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of
the zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 348 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Summertime weather continues across Eastern Kentucky this afternoon,
with temperatures rising into the upper 80s across much of the
forecast area as of the time of writing. Expect MaxTs to culminate
in the lower 90s for many locales this afternoon, as the antecedent
ridging synoptics favor efficient diurnal warming (and cooling)
processes. This afternoon`s extensive field of cumulus clouds is
progged to subside as the sun sets tonight, but the proximity of the
aforementioned ridging makes these clouds less likely to produce
precipitation than yesterday.

The latest forecast guidance suite collectively resolves an
elongated ridge extending through the Ohio River Valley from the
Upper Midwest and then into the Mid-Atlantic States. Its narrow
circulation has fed some Canadian wildfire smoke into the column
above our northeastern counties, so the eastern sky may have a
hazier look to it today. More importantly though, it has introduced
subsidence and midlevel dry air into the column. This will suppress
the depth of this afternoon`s convective cumulus field and lead to
another seasonably hot and dry summer day. HOwever, the parent
ridging is progged to gradually weaken/broaden overnight into
tomorrow. The related surface anticyclone subsequently shifts south
and allows more southerly low-level return flow to set up over the
CWA by tomorrow morning. Thus, after one more night of ridge-valley
temperature splits (cooler valleys in the 60s and warmer ridgetops
closer to 70) and high-confidence river valley fog formation, the
forecast looks to become more active tomorrow.

Any lingering fog near the area`s waterways should burn off by mid-
morning tomorrow. Temperatures should once again quickly rise
towards the upper 80s/lower 90s by early afternoon, albeit with
dewpoints a few degrees higher than today. This increase in humidity
will cause heat indices to approach the triple digits in urbanized
areas and in the area`s deepest valleys, but widespread heat impacts
are not anticipated. This in part due to the development of a more
extensive and deeper cumulus field during peak diurnal heating
tomorrow. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along and
southwest of the KY-15 corridor could provide some localized heat
from the relief, and there will be enough instability in place for
some of this convection to produce lightning, localized downpours,
and erratic wind gusts. However, there is not enough shear nor
enough forcing for tomorrow`s activity to become organized or tall,
and the risk for widespread severe weather or hydrological impacts
is low. Convection should fizzle out with the loss of diurnal
heating tomorrow evening, but the potential for lingering cloud
cover and pockets of recently wet grounds introduces uncertainty in
the forecast for ridge/valley splits and fog formation tomorrow
night. For now, patchy fog was confined to the conventional river
valleys and only modest topographic temperature edits were made.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 348 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Subtropical ridging aloft will extend from the Atlantic westward
into the southeast CONUS at the start of the period, but it will be
in an ongoing weakening trend. Deep moisture pivoting around the
southwestern side of the weakening ridge will arrive in our area
from the west on Friday and Friday night as a weak upper level wave
approaches from the west northwest on the southwest side of a
strengthening northeast CONUS trough. Our low level flow will also
be picking up out of the west southwest, providing low level
moisture transport. These factors all lead to an increasing
potential for showers/thunderstorms as we move into the weekend,
with additional peaks due to diurnal heating/destabilization
occurring during the afternoon and early evening hours on Friday and
Saturday. In association with the northeast CONUS trough, models now
are offering a little bit stronger cold front arriving from the
north on Saturday night and Sunday as compared to 24 hours ago. This
could keep a higher POP ongoing into Sunday, but should the front
pass cleanly, it would also allow for more of a drop in POP from
Sunday night into Monday as the aforementioned wave departs and
subtle geopotential height rises occur.

Another wave is expected to rotate through the upper trough and
support a more significant cold front to approach on Tuesday and
move through Tuesday night. Another increase in POP would be
expected with this, followed by the arrival of lower dew points and
probably dry weather on Wednesday after fropa.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026

VFR conditions are found through eastern Kentucky early this
evening. As the limited cumulus clouds start to wane and
dissipate, valley fog is once again anticipated to develop
overnight, with both probabilistic and persistence guidance
suggesting that IFR reductions are most likely at KSME and then
KLOZ by Thursday morning. KSJS and KSYM could see brief
reductions to MVFR vsbys from patchier fog, and all of the above
has been handled with TEMPO groups with this 00Z TAF issuance.
Expect fog to mix out by mid-morning and give way to another day
of cumulus clouds that afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm chances
increase at southwest terminals later in the afternoon, Thursday,
but not enough to include even via a PROB30 at this time. Winds
will remain generally light and variable for the duration of the
period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...MARCUS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...MARCUS/GREIF