Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

452
FXUS63 KJKL 210512
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1212 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Gusty winds will gradually diminish into this evening.

-  Much colder air arrives during the second half of the weekend
   and lingers into early next week.

-  Light snow may occur in some locations by Sunday and possibly
   into Monday, but any accumulations look to be minor.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1141 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026

Late evening obs were blended into the forecast, again without any
substantive changes.

UPDATE Issued at 741 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026

Early evening obs have been blended into the forecast without any
substantive changes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 345 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026

As of mid afternoon, an upper level low was centered over the
Lake Huron/Ontario area while the axis of an upper level trough
extended from with the OH Valley and the Commonwealth under rather
swift southwest flow aloft that extended from near the
Alberta/Saskatchewan border through the Rockies. Southwest flow
aloft extended from the Southern Plains to the OH Valley to
Appalachians. Another upper low was centered near the Ontario and
Manitoba border. At the surface, an area of low pressure was
centered in the Lake Huron vicinity with an occluded front
extending east and then south to a triple point in VA with the
cold front/wavy baroclinic zone trialing to the Gulf coast states
to Southern Plains and a another low in CO. Meanwhile, sfc high
pressure was centered over Saskatchewan extended through sections
of the Plains/central Conus and was nosing into the Lower OH
Valley. Although the sfc pressure gradient has started to relax a
bit between the low in the Great Lakes and the sfc high pressure
ridge. However, solar insolation and mixing has led to momentum
transfer of winds aloft in the form of gusts to around or in
excess of 30KT or upwards of 35 at times. Temperatures in the
more southern and eastern locations warmed into the 60s with 50s
at present further to the north and northwest.

This evening and tonight, the upper low currently near Lake Huron
and sections of Ontario is expected to trek into the northeast
and begin to merge/phase with another upper low and trough
extending through the Maritimes. Further west, the upper low
currently near the Alberta and Ontario border is expected to
meander northwest and begin to merge into the upper trough
approaching form the west. The axis of this trough is expected to
progress into the Plains/Central Conus by dawn on Saturday.
Further downstream a couple of shortwaves are expected to move in
southwest flow aloft. These will interact with the frontal zone
across the Gulf Coast states with sfc waves moving east along the
boundary. Saturday, the 500 mb trough axis will begin to approach
the OH Valley and near the MS Valley. Southwest flow aloft will
remain across the Commonwealth and OH Valley while a sfc wave
moving across the Gulf states along the frontal zone tracks north
into GA and nears the Southern Appalachians. The 500 mb trough
will continue to approach from the west Sunday night while
guidance suggests an upper level low will evolve to the north and
northwest of the OH Valley. Downstream, the sfc low is expected to
trek toward the Carolina coast.

Tonight, an increase in mainly mid and upper level moisture,
mainly near or above 700 mb is anticipated while winds slacken.
There could be a few hours before the mid clouds increase once
the winds slacken. This could result in a small to moderate
ridge/valley temperature split in northern and eastern portions of
the area. The moisture increase tonight is expected to be a bit
deeper generally south of KY 80 and in particularly nearer to the
TN border northeast to around Harlan and Letcher county, with more
moisture below the 700 mb level per 12Z HREF forecast soundings
and deterministic guidance. In this area, some light rain may
reach the ground, and it could be measurable, while in a tier or
two of counties to the north mainly sprinkles or virga is
probable.

As Saturday progress into Saturday evening and Saturday night,
the approach of the upper trough will begin a trend to cold air
advection starting during the day on Saturday. Also, moisture
should increase generally form the top down from Saturday midday
or Saturday afternoon onward. As for Saturday, temperatures trend
colder compared to today, with higher afternoon humidity and much
less gusty winds. The approaching shortwave trough and height
falls combined with the sfc system passing to the south will bring
chances for rain or rain showers initially. However, as colder
air continues to move in, 850 mb temperatures dropping from
around 0C on Saturday evening toward around -8C or lower late
Saturday night per 12Z HREF, this should mix with an then
transition to snow from late Saturday evening into Saturday night.
A light dusting or minor accumulations are possible in areas
generally east of I-75, especially on ridgetops. The wintry
comeback will extend into the start of the long term period.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 239 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026

The long-term period begins Sunday morning with a strongly digging
upper trough moving across eastern Kentucky as a surface low near or
just off the Carolina coastline begins to develop and strengthen.
Models all suggest rapid deepening of this cyclone off the Mid-
Atlantic coastline during the Sunday - Sunday night periods, with
models in good agreement on at least a couple of well-defined
shortwaves moving southeast across our area on the backside of what
will be a deeply stacked low by Monday morning.

The combination of persistent low-level cold advection and the
passage of distinct upper PV anomalies will mean the potential for
accumulating snow, especially along and east of the US Highway 23
corridor across eastern Kentucky, but to a lesser degree also
including much of eastern Kentucky east of Interstate 75. Current
LREF probabilities suggest much of Pike County and parts of adjacent
counties have a 40 percent or greater chance of at least 1 inch snow
accumulation, with much of eastern Pike County (especially higher
elevations) having a ~10 percent chance of 4 or more inches of snow,
so the opportunity for at least minor impacts exists from Sunday
night through Monday, and possibly extending through Monday night
into early Tuesday morning, before ending.

Temperatures will return to winter-like levels, with highs Sunday
and Monday only in the 30s, and lows in the 20s, before a warming
trend quickly develops Tuesday ahead of the next system which
crosses the area beginning the second half of Wednesday lasting into
Thursday. Cooler air will move into eastern Kentucky behind the cold
front passage with this system Thursday, but at this time it appears
that temperatures will remain just warm enough for all rain before
precipitation ends.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026

VFR conditions are forecast until early Saturday evening. IFR or
low end MVFR conditions are then expected to develop by the end of
the period, along with some light rain and/or snow.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...HAL