Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

170
FXUS63 KJKL 311233
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
733 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A dry and fluffy snow event continues into today, primarily
  across far southeastern Kentucky. Highest accumulations are
  expected near the KY-VA border.

- Cold weather lasts through the weekend, with at least a brief
  warming trend early this coming week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 732 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2026

The going forecast looks good, so changes with the daybreak
update are just to freshen hourly temperatures.

UPDATE Issued at 453 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2026

With no evidence of any meaningful snow accumulations occurring
below 1,500-feet elevation outside of the counties neighboring the
Virginia border, the Winter Weather Advisory was cancelled for all
but Bell County. The Winter Storm Warning continues for Pike,
Letcher, and Harlan counties, but even here snow accumulations are
becoming increasingly confined to higher elevations.

Hourly PoPs were adjusted slightly through the first couple of
periods with the pre-dawn update. Otherwise, there are no
significant changes to the forecast except for adjusting
aforementioned headlines.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 328 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2026

A high-amplitude upper trough dives southeast across the Bluegrass
State and closes off into a strong upper low near the Southeast US
coastline tonight, then broadens as it moves northeast into the
western Atlantic late tonight through Sunday. Meanwhile, strong
cyclogenesis off the Southeast US coast will result in a rapidly
strengthening surface low today and tonight that moves northeast and
well out to sea Sunday. The highly amplified upper-level pattern
will keep the mid-latitude jet stream well south of eastern Kentucky
Sunday.

Light snow continues over southeastern Kentucky, mainly across the
counties bordering Virginia and parts of neighboring counties.
Visibilities are remaining rather elevated where we have
observations in these areas, indicating that the snow is not
particularly heavy even though flakes are likely dendritic in
nature. This activity will continue to become increasingly confined
to the Virginia border before tapering to flurries. As the surface
low offshore strengthens, low-level cold advection and upslope flow
will help to initiate very light snow showers and flurries even
upstream of the mountains, that may persist into Sunday morning
before ending. Low clouds will gradually dissipate Sunday, with some
sun returning to eastern Kentucky skies despite an arctic air mass
in place.

The northerly mid-level flow today will advect a bitterly cold air
mass into the area, with teens expected for highs resulting in
threatening or reaching low maximum temperature records today. The
Cold Advisory has been extended in time through tonight from the
Interstate 64 corridor northward, though with persistent clouds and
some mixing apparent temperatures will be more marginal for hitting
the criteria of 5 below zero. The Cold Advisory may need to be
expanded across the southern and southeastern parts of the forecast
area, where some locations may fall to 5 below to 10 below zero late
tonight, but confidence was not quite high enough to issue at this
time.

Highs Sunday under surface ridging will remain quite low and well
below freezing, generally reaching the lower to mid-20s at most
locations.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 355 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2026

Sunday night, some upper level troughing will remain over the area,
in the wake of the departed noreaster. Light winds and partly cloudy
skies will favor ridge-valley splits as a result of decoupling
valleys. That said, warm air will be advecting into the area and may
keep ridge-tops elevated. Temperatures will range from the single
digits in the valleys, to low teens along ridge-tops.

Monday, warm air continues to advect into the area, with clouds
increasing through the day. A weak cold front will move through the
area during the day from a low over the Great Lakes. Some flurries
may be possible, however, as previously noted in prior discussions
models suggest drying aloft which could lead to virga instead.
Temperatures Monday range from the low to upper 30s across the area,
north to south. At night, temperatures generally remain in the low
to mid 20s.

During the night Monday, a shortwave spills out of the Northern
Plains while a southern stream shortwave also works into the Lower
to Mid Mississippi Valley. By Tuesday, the combination of shortwaves
will likely see a stalled front just south of the area. Rain
showers, and possibly a rain-snow mix will occur Tuesday, tapering
off through Wednesday. Temperatures will range from the upper 30s to
upper 40s north to south Tuesday, cooling into the low to upper 20s
Tuesday night. Wednesday is expected to be slightly cooler, in the
low to upper 30s, as a cold front moves through the area. A trough
axis moves through the area Wednesday night, leading to colder
temperatures in the teens to return to Eastern Kentucky.

Models and ensemble spread increases beyond Wednesday, however in
general the next modeled system could approach the area Friday,
before another shot of colder air arrives for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 625 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2026

Light snow continues over far southeastern Kentucky this morning,
becoming increasingly confined to the border counties with
Virginia. In these locations, MVFR/IFR conditions can be expected
through the TAF period. For the TAF sites, VFR conditions will
gradually diminish to MVFR conditions as low-level winds become
increasingly more north-northwesterly and orthogonal to the
downstream high terrain over southeastern Kentucky. Flurries or
light snow showers can also be expected at times, especially for
the southeastern terminals, though confidence is too low to
include for any specific times in the TAFs.

North winds will gradually increase to 5 to 10 kts and gradually
back to a more northwesterly direction through the daytime hours
today. Sustained winds will then diminish to around 5 kts or less
tonight.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST today for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>087-104-106.

Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Sunday for KYZ044-
050>052.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for KYZ087.

Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for KYZ088-
118-120.


&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC