Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

191
FXUS63 KJKL 291435
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
935 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a potential for a more widespread dry, fluffy snow
  event Friday/Saturday for parts of eastern Kentucky depending on
  the evolution of a possible large system developing/moving up
  the Eastern Seaboard.

- Cold weather lasts through the upcoming weekend, with at least a
  brief warming trend following early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026

Mid and high clouds continue to pass over eastern Kentucky during
the late morning update. Temperatures are rising into and through
the 10s and are even flirting with 20F near Lake Cumberland.
Still anticipate widespread afternoon highs ranging from the mid
20s norht of I-64 to the mid 30s near the KY-TN border under
variable, mainly high, cloud cover.

UPDATE Issued at 635 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026

Mainly high clouds were passing over the region early this
morning, though some low clouds were present in the southwest.
Current temperatures were mainly in the single digits to teens. A
few of the coldest spots north of I-64 may be a degree or two
below zero at this point. Hourly grids were freshened up based on
recent observation trends. No other changes were necessary at this
time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 350 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026

Early this morning, an upper level low was centered in Ontario
with an upper trough south into the Great lakes and parts of the
Central to eastern Conus. Further west an upper level ridge
extended into portions of the western Conus. Upstream, a shortwave
trough in northwest flow was moving into the trough and extended
from the SD vicinity to central to southern Plains. At the
surface, high pressure was centered over southeastern KY, while
another ridge of high pressure extended from Saskatchewan into the
upper MS Valley. South of the area, a frontal zone extended from
the Carolinas into the TN Valley to the central Plains to MT. In
northwest flow, an area of low and mid level clouds extended from
western NC across eastern TN and portions of the Cumberland Valley
into south central to parts of western KY and IL. Some flurries
have fallen from these clouds over the past few hours per regional
AWOS sites and a narrow band of low clouds from east of JKL to
southwestern Pike County and into VA is likely producing a few
flurries as well per recent radar imagery. Outside of these areas
of clouds, skies were mostly clear to clear. Temperatures were
largely in the teens with single digits in valleys and some low
lying areas in the west per KY Mesonet stations and home weather
station networks.

Today and tonight, the upper low in Canada is expected to become
more enlongated with an upper low centered in the Maritimes
vicinity and another center in Ontario that weakens. The axis of
this enlongated upper low/troughing should drop south across the
Great Lakes tonight through Friday. A new upper low centered south
of the Great Lakes may begin to take shape by late Friday. Ahead
of all this, the shortwave trough moving south across parts of the
Plains at present is expected to move across the Central Conus
today and then into the OH and TN Valleys tonight. That system
should reach the Appalachians late in the period. This shortwave
is expected to interact with the frontal zone currently to the
south of eastern KY with a sfc low tracking along it from the
AR/Ozarks vicinity to the Lower MS Valley and eventually over
GA/southeast. Moisture is progged to increase through the column
from the top down today and through tonight, with the lower levels
becoming nearly saturated by late tonight. Highs today should
continue the recent gradient from north to south, with mid 20s
north to mid 30s south. The increasing cloud cover should limit
chances for any significant ridge/valley temperatures split for
tonight. Temperatures should range from the upper single digits
north to teens to low 20s south.

A few flurries or patchy light snow may occur as moisture increases
late tonight and as the shortwave nears and the thermal gradient
increases on Friday. There should be broad omega through the
column on Friday, including maximizing at times in the DGZ. An
increase in coverage of snow should occur on Friday across the
south/southeast. QPF from the NBM has generally trended down or
to the south compared to earlier runs. 00Z HREF PMM snowfall is
around 1 inch on Friday generally to the south of the Mtn Parkway
and to the east of Interstate 75 and there are some locally
higher amounts near 2 inches in the Black Mtn area of Harlan
County and the Pine Mountain area of Letcher County. This is in
good alignment with the current gridded snowfall forecast based on
NBM QPF and hourly NBM fluffy snow ratios (15:1 or greater across
the region). The further south trend continues into the start of
the long term period. The snowfall for the south will continue to
be messaged in the HWO and a DSS Packet. Confidence in snowfall
starting on Friday and lasting into Saturday was very marginal at
best as far as probabilities from the 01Z NBM of getting to 4
inches or more. Probabilties (of 50 percent or greater) were
confined to the highest terrain mainly near the VA border in each
county from Pike to Letcher to Harlan. Temperatures on Friday will
again have a north to south temperature gradient with low 20s
north to low 30s near the TN and VA border.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 412 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026

At the onset of the long-term period, Friday evening, an upper level
trough will be digging south from the Great Lakes through the
Tennessee Valley. By Saturday afternoon a closed low at 500-mb is
modeled anywhere from North Georgia, to South Carolina. As the
trough axis moves south and east of Kentucky during Friday evening,
some snow showers from lingering mid-level frontogenetic forcing,
will continue over southeastern Kentucky. This closed upper level
low will help a surface low in the Southeast US materialize into a
Miller Type A Noreaster, off the Carolina coast. Where exactly the
low tracks can alter forecasted snowfall for Eastern Kentucky. Unlike
the last system, the state looks to remain in the cold-sector, with
snow ratios ranging from 15 to 20-1. At current, the area to most
likely see accumulating snowfall remains south and east of the Hal-
Rogers Parkway/KY-80 corridor. Models and ensembles have been
bouncing around from run-to-run, so forecaster confidence has room
to improve. That said, the 07Z NBM probs of exceeding 4 inches of
snowfall (warning criteria), remains at 25% for cities like
Pikeville, Hazard and Harlin. Areas closer to the stateline such as
Cumberland and Elkhorn City currently have a 40% chance of exceeding
4 inches. Of note, this is the 4th run in a row that these
probabilities have dropped from the previous runs, with each run
pulling the highest probabilities further east, out of the area.

After the trough axis passes southeast of the state by Saturday
morning, cold arctic air will remain through the day, with highs
struggling to reach 20 across the area. In fact, Jackson is
forecasted to reach 14 for a high, which would break the previous
record cold high, of 26 degrees set back in 2019. Snow showers
should taper off heading into Saturday evening, with lows in the
single digits, with a forecasted low of 6 degrees at Jackson, the
record low of 9 degrees set back in 2013 would also be at play.

Sunday, warmer air starts to move into the area aloft. Unfortunately
that isn`t instantaneous, and all of the area will have to endure
another day below freezing, with temperatures ranging from the lower
to mid 20s during the day. Clouds should decrease through the
afternoon, with light northwesterly winds becoming more westerly
after sunset. With light winds and clearing skies, ridge-valley
splits are expected Sunday night, where all areas will likely be in
the single digits, with ridges being a few degrees warmer than
valleys. Currently the forecasted low for the Jackson airport Sunday
night is 8 degrees. The record low of 6 will certainly be in play,
previously set 30 years ago in 1996.

Into next week, a warming trend looks likely, with Monday being the
first in a few days that much of the area will see lower to upper
30s for temperatures. Clouds should increase through the day, with a
nearby system passing through the Great Lakes. At current, no
precipitation is expected. Monday night, low temperatures in the
upper teens to near 20 will be welcomed by many given these are
warmer than the highs from Saturday.

Tuesday, the next system looks to approach the area, bringing with
it chances of rain Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Temperatures
continue to warm, in the mid 30s to lower 40s on Tuesday and upper
30s to lower 40s on Wednesday. Temperatures cool in the mid 20s
Wednesday night and may lingering shower chances, a wintry mix may
be possible. Do to model disparity there are scattered Pop chances
in the afternoon for showers but that could certainly change with
how the trough passes through the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026

VFR was observed across the region at issuance time with light and
variable winds as sfc high pressure dominates. Mainly high clouds
were passing by at present with some low clouds southwest of the
TAF sites near the TN border in the KEKQ vicinity. Clouds should
gradually thicken and lower today and tonight, though VFR should
prevail in all locations through at least 06Z. NBM guidance as
well as recent CONSShort guidance and LAMP data suggest some fog
with reductions into at least the MVFR range between 06Z and 12Z.
Also during that timeframe, flurries or patchy light snow may
develop in some areas as ceilings trend into the MVFR range
before 12Z. Winds are expected to remain light an variable today,
gradually becoming north to northeast at generally 5KT or less.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JP