Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

077
FXUS63 KJKL 182144
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
444 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Above normal temperatures will last into Friday, with some
   places potentially topping 70 degrees on Thursday.

-  Multiple rounds of rain showers are likely on Thursday and
   Thursday night, with a slight chance of thunderstorms. A few
   storms could be strong to severe Thursday afternoon through
   Thursday night.

-  Colder air filters into the area this weekend and lingers into
   early next week.

-  Snow showers are possible on Sunday into Monday, but only minor
   accumulations are forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 215 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026

An active west-southwesterly jet stream will continue across the
area through the short-term period (through 12z Friday), with
moderate to strong warm advection bringing temperatures well above
normal. A strong cold front will be crossing the forecast area at
the end of the short-term forecast period Friday morning, providing
for an end to the warm advection pattern.

Main challenges in the short-term involve a low-probability risk for
locally heavy rain near/along the Tennessee and/or Virginia border
areas late tonight, fog potential in the north tonight under a very
dry mid-level air mass, and the low potential for a few strong to
severe storms from Thursday afternoon through Thursday night.

As for the first forecast challenge, models are in great agreement
on a low-level moisture gradient developing along the north side of
a west-southwesterly 700-hPa jet streak across far southeastern
Kentucky and/or northeastern Tennessee and southwestern Virginia
tonight, with increasing warm advection and moisture convergence at
the 850-hPa and 925-hPa levels from the southwest, while subsidence
and downward ageostrophic motion aloft in association with a 300-hPa
jet max aloft will support a subtle backdoor cold front moving south
down the Appalachian chain. The result will likely be a narrow
corridor of possibly training shower activity early Thursday morning
which could result in locally heavy rain amounts exceeding 1 inch,
though it appears the probability of any high water issues appears
too low at this time to be overly concerning. Nevertheless, there is
a signal for a several-hour period of showers to move over the same
areas, though it is unclear where exactly this may occur over
southeastern Kentucky and/or northeastern Tennessee and southwestern
Virginia.

The second challenge will be with the potential for fog formation
tonight, as a dry mid-level air mass moves over a largely saturated
low-level air mass. Main risk for fog is just north of where shower
activity occurs where there will be the best subsidence.

The third challenge will be with the low potential for strong to
severe storms Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. The best
forcing for ascent, and thus support for severe weather, will exist
well west and northwest of the area, with the JKL forecast area
largely within a warm sector that at this time looks to be largely
devoid of any significant forcing mechanisms outside of potential
differential heating boundaries. However, upscale growth of cellular
convective activity upstream may result in a QLCS severe wind threat
later in the evening or overnight, though stability will be on an
increasing trend with weakening dynamics which will mitigate these
risks.

Any cellular convection that can develop during the afternoon and
early evening Thursday will carry the threat for strong winds,
marginally large hail, and possibly a brief tornado, especially in
our northwestern counties.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 432 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Any lingering rain showers associated with the cold front
responsible for the active weather discussed above in the short term
section look to depart the area by Friday afternoon. Models depict
the parent mid/upper level troughing disturbance moving into Ontario
as the day progresses, which should facilitate FROPA and usher in a
clearing trend from NW to SE. Low level winds adopt more of a
westerly component behind the front, and the flow aloft is expected
to return to a quasi-zonal state. This will limit the efficacy of
the immediate post-frontal cold air advection. Assuming the clearing
trend comes to fruition and low level clouds don`t stubbornly hang
around, temperatures on Friday afternoon are still expected to warm
into the upper 50s/lower 60s. Relative to Thursday`s near-record
warmth, this will still feel like a cool down, but a more potent
cold air advection regime sets up this weekend.

Friday morning`s cold front is forecast to stall out to the south of
the forecast area in the Tennessee Valley as it gets abandoned by
its upper level support. Another low pressure system is forecast to
develop within the related baroclinic zone on Friday night as a
southern stream perturbation ejects out of the Ozarks aloft. Most of
the forecast area is expected to remain dry for the start of the
weekend, but overrunning moisture leads to an increase in mid/high
level cloud cover and slight chance PoPs down by the Tennessee and
Virginia borders through Saturday afternoon. Anything that falls
would be rather light and in liquid form, as temperatures are
forecast to remain well above freezing. Expect AM lows in the upper
30s/lower 40s on Saturday morning and PM highs in the 50s area-wide.

The cold air advection regime intensifies heading into early next
week, with two shortwave troughs expected to propagate towards the
forecast area back to back on Sunday. At the surface, the area will
be positioned on the backside of the now-departing low on the other
side of the Appalachians. Together, this leads to strengthening NW
flow throughout much of the lower half of the atmospheric column.
While there remains some model uncertainty regarding the
precipitation forecast in this time frame, a changeover to snow is
possible as surface temperatures drop below freezing on Saturday
night. Favorable lobes of cyclonic vorticity rotating around the
backside of the now-deeper troughing aloft may combine with upslope
NW flow to produce additional snow showers later on Sunday and into
Monday. Despite marginal ground temps leading into the event, minor
accumulations cannot be completely ruled out in locations that
experience higher snowfall rates.

Perhaps the bigger story will be the return of the colder air at
the culmination of all this activity. Highs drop into the upper
30s/near 40 on Sunday and then struggle to rise much warmer than
the mid 30s on Monday amidst persistent NW flow and CAA. Drier
continental high pressure builds into the region on Monday night,
and the resultant clearing allows Monday night`s lows to
radiationally cool to below-normal values in the teens (valleys)
and lower 20s (ridgetops). Some degree of thermal moderation is
expected by midweek as broader ridging builds in over much of the
contiguous US. These synoptics will steadily return temperatures
to near-normal values by the end of the period, with highs
reaching the 40s on Tuesday and then the 50s on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026

Mainly MVFR conditions prevailed at the start of the forecast
period with lowering cigs and the arrival of -SHRA from the
west and northwest in association with a cold front. Ceilings are
expected to further worsen into the IFR category (or possibly
lower) for most locations this evening and remain persistently
low through tonight. Scattered showers might redevelop from south
to north late in the night, but are most likely to be focused
south of the Mountain Parkway. To the north, including KIOB, KSYM,
and possibly KSJS and KJKL, fog or low stratus may be the primary
culprit for IFR or worse flight conditions. Conditions are likely
to begin improving after 15z Thursday as developing instability
allows for low clouds to begin to lift and scatter through the end
of the TAF period.

Southwest winds at 5 to 15 kts will continue through the
afternoon, strongest at KIOB and KSYM, though with gusts likely
diminishing through the afternoon as the low-level jet weakens.
Light and generally southerly winds are expected thereafter.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...CMC