Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

669
FXUS63 KJKL 291759 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
159 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms will return to
  mainly southern locations from tonight through Monday.

- Temperatures will average within a few degrees of normal over
  the next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 110 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026

Hourly grids were freshened up based on recent satellite and
observation trends. In general, seasonably mild, but less humid
weather prevails with mainly passing high clouds in the north.
However, the boundary to the south of the region has begun to lift
north toward the TN/KY border area. More of an increase in low and
mid level moisture is occurring there with some associated low
and mid level clouds at this time. This increase in moisture will
set the stage for shower chances in more southern locations this
evening into Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 220 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026

The upper level ridge established over the region this morning
begins to weaken as a slow moving trough shifts eastward into the
middle Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley. A very dry air
mass keeps much of the local area dry through the afternoon,
however, that will change during the late afternoon and evening
hours for southern locations. With heating and moisture advection
occurring along the TN/KY border, scattered showers and perhaps a
few thunderstorms will develop and slowly move north as the trough
lifts northeastward. Very weak steering flow would result in slow
moving activity, so cannot rule out an isolated area of locally
heavy rainfall with PWATs ranging into the 1.5 to 1.7 range.

Overnight, the trough continues to weaken, but depending on the
strength of the evening convective activity, lingering rumbles of
thunder and rain showers may persist into Saturday morning. A
large trough digging into the northeast US and Mid-Atlantic ushers
in another surge of dry air for the rest of Saturday, pushing any
remaining rainfall activity south into Tennessee by the afternoon.
Expect the whole area to be dry for Saturday evening and night,
with temperatures dropping into the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 220 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026

The dry conditions may not continue into Sunday as low level
steering flow is supportive of moisture advection into the TN/KY
region once again as surface high pressure shifts east of the area.
Forecast soundings indicate some meager instability so while
thunder cannot be removed from the forecast, coverage is expected
to be quite limited, with the best chances once again near the
TN/KY border.

A weak shortwave moves into the area Sunday night into
Monday, continuing the potential for scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms. Broader chances exist for this particular system,
but early indications are that the best chances will once again be
focused across southern locations.

Finally, a second, much deeper trough, digs into the northeast US
and Mid-Atlantic Monday night into Tuesday. A large high pressure
moves southward out of the Great Lakes, shifting directly over the
region by Tuesday afternoon. Conditions dry out over the region
through midweek, with temperatures generally in the upper 70s to
lower 80s for highs and 50s for lows.

The next chance for rain appears to be Friday as a shortwave
trough ejects eastward out of the Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026

Moisture will increase from southwest to northeast through around
09Z as an area of low pressure moves through the OH Valley and
lifts a boundary north to near the TN/KY border as a warm front.
This will result in a gradual increase in low and mid level
clouds, mainly for KSME and KLOZ. Along with the increase in
clouds, convection should also affect both locations and thunder
is also a possibility. PROB 30 for reductions to MVFR in showers
or prevailing showers was carried in these more southwestern areas
at times between 02Z and about 14Z. Thunder chances were under 30
percent and thus too low for a mention at this time. Drier air
moves into to end the period behind a front dropping south from
the north and northeast.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...NM
LONG TERM...NM
AVIATION...JP