Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

146
FXUS63 KJKL 032004
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
304 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures are expected today before a cooldown behind
  a passing weather system.

- Rain and snow is expected to develop this afternoon into this
  evening, with minor snow accumulations possible especially
  along and north of the Mountain Parkway.

- Regardless of whether snow or rain falls today through
  Wednesday, frozen surface and sub-surface conditions will result
  slick spots on untreated travel surfaces even when air
  temperatures are above freezing.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1153 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026

Temperatures warmed faster than was forecast this morning and
readings are now above freezing just about area wide. This is the
first time above freezing for many places since 11 days ago. The
precip has largely shifted north of the JKL forecast area. Latest
model guidance suggests significant precip will begin to arrive
in our southern counties latest this afternoon in the form of
rain, and not in our northern counties until early this evening.
Temperatures will drop with the arrival of precip in the north
this evening, and wintery precip is still expected. Revised snow
totals through this evening are lower-- generally under an inch.
However, with an advisory already issued for our far northern
counties, it will be left to run.

UPDATE Issued at 603 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026

Made some minor updates to hourly temperatures this afternoon
through Wednesday that resulted in slight changes to forecast snow
accumulations. Otherwise, the changes were minor and were mainly
to freshen near-term hourly temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 355 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026

A mid-level shortwave moves east across the Ohio Valley today,
followed by an upper level trough Wednesday into Wednesday night.
These will bring potentially impactful weather to parts of
eastern Kentucky through much of the short-term period.

Initial concern for the late morning into the early afternoon today
will be a developing frontogenetic west-east band of snow along/near
the Ohio River this morning/afternoon. As of now, this band is
expected to stay north of Fleming County, but there is some
potential for the southern edge to graze parts of the far northern
CWA border area. As the shortwave and surface low cross the area
this evening, this band will begin to weaken as it moves east and
southeast across the northern part of the forecast area, with
further weakening of the precipitation as it moves into southeastern
Kentucky tonight.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for this afternoon and
evening along and north of the Interstate 64 corridor. Even if snow
accumulations do not quite reach the typical 1-inch criteria,
impacts are expected for the late afternoon and early evening
commute. Additionally, even with air temperatures likely to reach
the mid-30s, any precipitation (rain or snow) falling on frozen
ground, with sub-surfaces also below freezing (frost depth is 5
inches at the Jackson NWS office), will result in any
precipitation that falls likely freezing on any untreated travel
surfaces.

To the south of the Interstate 64 corridor, but generally along and
north of the Mountain Parkway, rain showers with above-freezing
temperatures will transition to snow and/or snow showers as the band
of snow associated with weakening frontogenesis moves southeast
along the immediate backside of the surface low/front. This area was
considered for a Winter Weather Advisory as well, but for now will
issue a Special Weather Statement and allow the day shift to analyze
the 12z model runs. Note that even here any precipitation that
falls, even with above-freezing air temperatures, is likely to
encounter frozen surface and sub-surface conditions, so travelers
should still expect slick spots, especially after dark, even with
air temperatures in the mid-30s.

To the south, precipitation will generally be weakening and showery
with a later transition to snow. Highs today in these areas are
likely to reach into the 40s, resulting in some surface melting, but
even here precipitation is likely to end with some snow and the
aforementioned associated slick spots given the recent prolonged
cold spell.

Another complicating factor in the forecast is that the GFS wants to
dry the dendritic growth zone fairly quickly this evening from the
west, with that drying trend continuing even as the upper trough
approaches Wednesday with additional light precipitation possible,
which would mean the potential for some light ice accumulations due
to drizzle/freezing drizzle or light freezing rain. Meanwhile, the
NAM, which shows a fairly broad area of light snow development
Wednesday into Wednesday night, indicates a saturated dendritic
growth zone just above the surface, and thus light accumulating
snow. Regardless, a broad area of chance PoPs has been included in
the grids for Wednesday into Wednesday night to account for either
light snow and/or ice accumulations, or some combination therein,
with minor impacts to travel possible. This may require issuance of
additional Special Weather Statements or a Winter Weather Advisory
with future forecast packages for parts of southeastern Kentucky.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 303 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026

The forecast period begins on the backside of a departing system as
surface high pressure builds into the region. Upper-level
northwesterly flow will maintain CAA, resulting in suppressed
temperatures to start the period. Afternoon highs are expected to
reach the mid-20s across the Bluegrass region, while areas toward
the Tennessee and Virginia state lines will likely warm into the mid-
30s. From Thursday night into Friday, boundary layer winds will
shift from the northwest to the west, initiating a period of WAA
ahead of the next system.

Friday features the approach of a shortwave trough progged to
migrate through the Great Lakes. This feature will drive a mid-level
wind shift and facilitate the transport of a warmer air mass into
the Commonwealth. Precipitation is expected to develop ahead of the
associated warm front. Initial profiles will be cold enough to
support snow showers; however, as the front lifts through the region
and surface temperatures follow the diurnal heating curve, a
transition to a wintry mix and eventually plain rain is expected by
Friday afternoon, particularly for eastern portions of the
CWA.Behind the warm front, temperatures are forecast to climb into
the upper-30s in the Bluegrass and the upper-40s along the Tennessee
border. This warming trend will be brief. By Friday evening, the
shortwave will exit to the east, allowing a CAA regime to re-
establish itself Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures will
reflect this air mass change, with overnight lows falling into the
teens and mid-20s, and Saturday highs limited to the mid-20s and mid-
30s.

Model confidence begins to diverge Sunday and into early next week.
Current forecast grids reflect a system tracking across the Ohio
Valley that may skirt the CWA before high pressure returns,
potentially bringing above-average temperatures. However,
deterministic long-term guidance remains split. The ECMWF depicts a
shortwave traversing the Ohio Valley, consistent with the current
blended forecast. Conversely, the GFS remains dry for the forecast
area and much of the eastern CONUS during this window. At this time,
the forecast leans toward the weighted ECMWF solution.

Overall, the period is highlighted by a series of progressive waves.
The first quick-moving system arrives late week, with a second
arriving late weekend. While temperature fluctuations remain
transitory, a broader warming trend appears probable for the end of
the weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 617 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026

VFR conditions prevailed at the start of the period with the
stratus deck exiting east of the area, and thin mid- and high-
level clouds streaming across the area from the west. A weak
system is expected to bring rain and snow to the area later today
into Tuesday night, bringing the return of deteriorating flight
conditions. Fog/haze will also be a concern as a warmer and more
humid air mass moves over surfaces characterized by sub-freezing
temperatures and residual snow and ice from previous winter
weather events. Winds will be variable around 5 kts or less
through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for KYZ044-
050>052.


&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL/CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...CMC