Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

070
FXUS63 KJKL 051155
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
755 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and breezy conditions continue today, with a chance of
  scattered showers and a few storms arriving this afternoon
  through mid-evening.

- More widespread showers and a few storms are expected tonight
  into Thursday morning, bringing beneficial rainfall to the area.

- Cooler, below normal temperatures settle in Thursday through
  Friday. Lows Thursday night drop into the mid to upper 30s in
  valleys, bringing potential for fog or localized patchy frost.

- Periodic lower chances for showers return heading into the
  upcoming weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 755 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026

Mid and high clouds are drifting across eastern Kentucky just past
sunrise. Temperatures are mild, ranging from the mid 40s to low
50s in the sheltered valleys up to the lower and mid 60s on
thermal belt ridges and over exposed terrain. Look for southerly
breezes to gradually increase through the remainder of the morning
with gusts reaching 20 to 30 mph in the breezier areas. No significant
changes were made to the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 352 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026

All is quiet across eastern Kentucky early this morning--temperatures
have dipped back into the upper 40s to lower 50s in the cooler
sheltered Coalfield valley spots, while in shallower valleys and
more open terrain, the mixing down of a light southerly breeze is
holding temperatures in the lower to middle 60s. While skies are
mostly clear over eastern Kentucky, regional radar imagery shows a
band of convection extending from central Ohio westward to over
eastern Kansas and northeast Oklahoma. A closer look at the
surface shows a cold front extending southward from an ~985 mb
surface low near James Bay to over Lower Michigan and then
southwestward through IL (behind the ongoing convection) to a
weak area of low pressure centered just east of the TX and OK
Panhandles. A glance aloft shows quasi-zonal flow over the
Commonwealth, sandwiched between broad low amplitude troughing
over the South Central CONUS and a more amplified trough trying to
dig southward from Canada into the Northern and Central Plains,
Upper Midwest, and Great Lakes. A closed upper low is also moving
ashore along the Central California Coast.

Upper level ridging over the South Central US will propagate eastward
today, supporting weak height rises over eastern Kentucky. With
the lack of upper level forcing, the aforementioned cold front
comes to a near stall just north of the Ohio River this
afternoon. Meanwhile, the upper level low coming ashore California
will gradually be captured by the trough digging into the North
Central CONUS. The first significant pulse of southern stream 500
hPa vorticity and shortwave energy from this low will eject east
northeast this afternoon and into the Ohio Valley tonight. This
will support the first of two waves of low pressure riding along
the cold frontal boundary. Given eastern Kentucky`s positioning
on the warm, moist side of the boundary, widespread rainfall with
a little embedded thunder can be expected. While PWATs will soar
to near 1.5 inches, very meager instability (up to a few hundred
J/kg of MUCAPE) should prevent rainfall rates and tallies from
reaching their overall potential. As it departs, it does appear
that this wave of low pressure will effectively pull the cold
front southeastward to near the KY-VA border by around 18Z
Wednesday. Additional southern stream energy then ejects
northeastward along the front late Wednesday, supporting another
wave of low pressure riding along the front, though a vast
majority of the associated rainfall is likely to affect
southeastern Kentucky and locations further south and east into
the warm sector. LREF probabilities for event rainfall totals
exceeding 1 inch of rain range from 30 percent north of the
Mountain Parkway to around 60 to 70 percent along the KY-TN and
KY-VA borders.

In sensible weather terms, look for mostly sunny skies this morning
to fade to increasing clouds with a low-end chance of a shower or
thunderstorm from mid-afternoon onward. It will be warm and breezy
with high temperatures between 75 and 80F for most locations while
south to southwest winds gust to between 20 and 25 mph. Showers with
some embedded thunder quickly become widespread late this evening and
early overnight and continue for several hours before tapering from
the northwest around or after daybreak on Wednesday. It will be mild
overnight with lows ranging in the 50s. For Wednesday, most of the
rain should taper off and move southeast of the forecast area by
early/mid afternoon for a several hour lull before additional
rain moves in late in the day and evening, primarily for locations
south of I-64. Otherwise, it will be cool and quite cloudy with
highs only in the 60s (perhaps around 70F in the warmest deep
valleys near the KY-VA border).

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 401 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026

The long wave pattern will remain amplified through the period.  An
upper level low will gyre around the vicinity of Hudson Bay, allowing
for broader cyclonic flow and general troughiness to rule east of
the Rockies through early next week. Model agreement is good
through the first half of the weekend, but then breaks down
somewhat for Sunday with substantial differences in location and
strength of individual shortwaves over the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys.

A surface front will be just exiting far southeastern Kentucky by
early to mid-evening Wednesday, with low-level cold advection and
light northerly winds allowing for low-end PoPs continuing through
much of Thursday until the parent trough crosses the area. High
pressure will then build in from the west Thursday night.
Temperature could dip into the mid and upper 30s for many valley
locations. However, lingering low-level moisture should tend to
favor fog formation over frost. With that said, narrow rural
hollows, especially with extensive agriculture and no significant
moisture source, could tend to see a little patchy frost instead
of fog.

Dry weather will be short-lived across the Commonwealth on Friday,
as additional shortwave activity rotates through the broad cyclonic
flow set up in the eastern CONUS. Another cold front will approach
and eventually move through the area Friday night and Saturday,
bringing in low rain chances. Dry weather returns for Saturday night
into Sunday morning, before the next system encroaches by the
afternoon, with rain chances continuing into the start of the new
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026

VFR conditions will generally prevail through the daylight hours
with just passing mid- and high-level clouds. Potential shower
activity arrives after 18Z with briefly worse flight categories
possible at western terminals, but any widespread persistent
rainfall should hold off until after 02Z. Light southerly winds
will become southwest at roughly 8 to 15 kts with gusts to around
18 to 23 kts from midday through at least early evening. Winds
will slacken and LLWS will return tonight as showers (and possibly
a few thunderstorms) stabilize the low-levels.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...CMC/JKL/GEERTSON
AVIATION...GEERTSON