Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

400
FXUS63 KJKL 251231
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
731 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A major winter storms impacts linger today and likely into
  tonight.

- Bitter cold weather returns tonight and lasts through next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 730 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026

Widespread freezing rain and areas of sleet is occurring across
eastern Kentucky with areas along the Tennessee border switching
to regular rain. Just a quick refresh by incorporating the latest
surface obs. Grids have been saved and sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 456 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026

In the 0722Z surface analysis, two centers of high pressure are
located across the northern CONUS and southern Canada. The first is
a 1041 mb high centered over the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont, while
the second is a 1039 mb high building southeast from southern
Saskatchewan. The influence of these surface highs is currently
muted by a broad area of low pressure moving through the Gulf States
and an inverted trough extending along the spine of the Appalachian
Mountains. While the highs are ushering in a colder air mass to the
north, local temperatures are warming under the influence of an 850
mb LLJ and the aforementioned inverted trough. Precipitation across
eastern Kentucky remains varied; freezing rain and rain are
occurring in the far south, while a combination of freezing rain,
sleet, and snow is reported further north.

For the remainder of the morning, SPC mesoanalysis indicates a 40 to
50-knot 850 mb LLJ will continue to promote WAA, maintaining a deep
warm layer aloft. This has led to a transition from snow to a wintry
mix, with a further changeover to all rain expected as the entire
column warms above freezing. The LLJ will also begin transporting
abundant moisture into the region over the next few hours, tapping
into Gulf moisture and bringing QPF values to their peak for this
event. Forecast 6-hour QPF totals range from 1.00 to 1.25 inches
this morning, supporting heavier precipitation through the early
afternoon. Remaining snow accumulations will range from a trace
across the south to upwards of 4 inches in the Bluegrass/I-64
corridor. Remaining ice accumulations are forecast to range from a
trace to 0.50 inches, with the highest amounts expected in the area
from Estill to Elliott County. As the system tracks northeast and
cold air begins to wrap around the backside of the low, a brief
transition back to a wintry mix is expected this afternoon before
changing to all snow overnight. Precipitation will taper off by
Monday morning. Surface high pressure will then build back into the
region, though CAA will bring the coldest temperatures of the
season. With temperatures forecast to plummet, cold temperature
headlines have been issued for Sunday night into Monday and again
Monday night into Tuesday. Lows are forecast to fall into the single
digits with wind chills dropping below zero.

The period will be highlighted by a significant synoptic-scale
system bringing continued wintry mix today before transitioning to
all snow later tonight. The coldest air of the season will settle
into the region starting tonight and persist through the end of the
period.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026

The period is expected to begin with an upper level trough extending
from Canada into the Central and eastern Conus while an upper level
ridge should initially be in place near the west coast of the Conus.
An initial shortwave trough should be shifting east of eastern KY as
the period begins per the consensus of guidance. Meanwhile, an upper
level low is expected to be present in Canada near the James Bay
vicinity with multiple disturbances rotating around it, including one
that should extend into the upper MS Valley and be nearing the
western Great Lakes as the period begins. At that point at the
surface, a ridge of high pressure is expected to extend from the
Southern Plains into the TN Valley and the Lower OH Valley. Further
upstream and associated with the upper trough extending into the
Upper MS Valley, a clipper type system is expected to be centered
over western Ontario with the trailing cold front into the Upper MS
Valley to Northern Plains.

For Monday night to Tuesday night, surface high pressure will shift
to the south and southeast of eastern KY late Monday night into
Tuesday. This will allow for clearing skies and likely lower min T
for valley locations and snow covered areas compared to the NBM
deterministic. Some adjustments were made to account for this for
Monday night lows. Return flow as the high departs should result in
somewhat milder temperatures areawide for Tuesday. However, at the
same time, the upper trough/clipper system should track across
Ontario and the Great Lakes and into the Northeast Conus. The
clipper systems trailing cold front will drop across the OH Valley
region and eastern KY late Tuesday into Tuesday night, with
reinforcing colder air for midweek. A few flurries and snow showers
are also possible with that system late Tuesday through Tuesday
night.

Upper level troughing will remain the dominant weather feature from
the Great Lakes into the eastern Conus from mid to late week.
Multiple clipper systems are expected to cross the Great Lakes and
OH Valley region including eastern KY. One should move through the
Great Lakes to the Northeast during the Tuesday night to Wednesday
night timeframe. This system should bring an increase in moisture
and clouds to eastern KY late Wednesday and Wednesday night, with a
better chances for scattered snow showers and flurries as compared
to the system 24 hours prior. Another reinforcement of colder air
also arrives with this system. Guidance has another clipper system
for the end of the period. As with the previous clipper systems,
flurries or a few snow showers would again be possible.

Overall, the cold weather will persist and be the main story by mid
to late week. Highs will average well below normal through the
entire period, on the order of 15 to 25 degrees below normal, with
similar departures for lows as well.

The coldest lows and apparent temperatures on average will be Monday
night to early on Tuesday when an Excessive Cold Watch remains in
effect.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026

TAFs are largely IFR with at the 12Z issuance and very little
improve if any is expected through the day. Wintry mix will
gradually give way to rain this afternoon at all sites minus KSYM
which will stay freezing rain through much of the day. Rain will
then transition back to a brief period of wintry mix then all snow
toward 00Z as cold air wraps around the system and drops
temperatures. A very gradual improvement in category is expected
toward 12Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EST Monday
for KYZ044-050>052-058-059-068-069-079-083.

Extreme Cold Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning
for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.


&&

$$

UPDATE...VORST
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...VORST