Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

143
FXUS63 KJKL 132228
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
628 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Drier conditions take hold after this evening, with most
 locations remaining dry through the end of the work week.

-Above normal temperatures can be expected through Friday, with
 highs returning to the upper 80s and lower 90s by Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 336 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026

At 1930Z visible satellite showed a Cu field across much of the
surrounding area, while radar shows pop-up showers and
thunderstorms forming and moving east to west, primarily along and
south of the Hal Rogers/ Kentucky Highway 80 corridor. Other
showers have developed over West Virginia and are moving east into
Elliot county. Temperates currently range from the upper 70s in
areas across the southeast affected by convection, to the low to
mid 80s further north.

Low pressure presently sits in along the Alabama/Tennessee border.
This low, sits in a positively tilted trough whose axis extends
northeast into portions of Central and Eastern Kentucky, and back
into the Ohio Valley. PWAT ranges from 1.5 inches across the north
to 1.8 inches along the KY/TN border. Easterly winds wrapping
around the surface will usher in showers and storms through the late
afternoon and early evening, into an environment with 1000-1500 J/kg
of MLCAPE. Storms are progressive enough where they shouldn`t cause
any additional flood concerns, though with 1.8 inch PWATs across the
Southeast, the flood threat does remain a small possibility. As such
the WPC has areas from Wayne to Pike counties in a Marginal Risk ERO
through tonight. These storms should tapper off by 8 PM this evening
across the CWA. Patchy areas of fog is expected to develop this
evening as temperatures cool into the low to mid 60s, with light and
variable winds and clearing skies.

Tuesday, height rises continue across the area, as a ridge of high
pressure builds into the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley. Temperatures
are expected to peak in the mid to upper 80s across Eastern
Kentucky, under mostly sunny skies and light easterly winds.
Tuesday evening, temperatures are expected to cool into the mid 60s
under mostly clear skies and near calm winds. Patchy areas of fog
may develop before mixing out early Wednesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 628 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026

The models agree on an amplified and rather stagnant pattern to
dominate over the majority of the CONUS through most of the
extended portion of the forecast. A stout upper high starts out
centered over the Midwest. Ridging will be sprawled through the
northern/central Plains to west northwest of the center, while
east southeastern extent covers through the Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley and over the Mid-Atlantic region. Meanwhile, a deep upper
low will be pinwheeling over northern Quebec, with tight cyclonic
flow fanned southward through the Saint Lawrence River Valley and
into northern New England. This ridge will generally dominate
across the Ohio Valley through at least Friday, before breaking
down this weekend, as broader cyclonic flow eventually infiltrates
from the north with time. Details on the evolution and transition
of the pattern shift across our region remain low confidence,
with plenty of model spread.

Sensible weather will feature a return to seasonably hot
temperatures and mainly dry conditions across most of eastern
Kentucky from Wednesday through Friday. Some isolated convection
will be possible across the Cumberland Plateau and vicinity both
Thursday and Friday afternoons. Highs each day will top out in the
upper 80s to lower 90s, with peak heat indices perhaps exceeding
100 degrees at times for a few locations. This weekend, as the
ridge gives way to troughing aloft, better convective coverage is
expected, generally peaking in the afternoon and early evening
timeframe. A surface cold front will also be in play, likely
approaching from the north. Again, confidence in timing these
specifics is pretty low at this point. Highs will cool off to the
upper 80s by Sunday, and mid 80s by Monday. Lows most nights will
range from the mid to upper 60s to around 70, with modest
ridge/valley splits through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026

Low stratus continues to thin out across eastern Kentucky at the
18Z TAF issuance with MVFR conditions. The low clouds should
continue to gradually lift into a VFR cumulus deck by mid
afternoon. Showers and storms are ongoing, and are forecast to
develop more this afternoon but mainly south of KJKL (most likely
at KLOZ, KSME, KBYL, KEKQ, KI35 and K1A6). The showers and storms
could bring gusty and erratic winds; as well as brief category
reductions. Outside of convection, winds are forecast to become
northeasterly at 10 kts or less during the daylight hours. Beyond
00Z light and variable winds are expected with VFR conditions.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GINNICK