Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

431
FXUS63 KJKL 171743
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1243 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  A warming trend will last through Thursday, with some places
   potentially topping 70F then. Cooling then arrives by the
   weekend.

-  The next likelihood of rain is Thursday-Thursday night, with a
   slight chance of thunderstorms in most of the area, as well.
   Some storms could be strong to severe.

-  A cold front brings cooler air starting Friday. Rain chances
   persist into the weekend, potentially ending as light snow or a
   wintry mix on Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1006 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026

Freshened up hourly temperatures and Sky grids with the mid- to
late morning update. Otherwise, the forecast is on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 356 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026

A quiescent late winter night is underway as high pressure slides
to the eastern side of the Appalachians. Skies remain clear to
partly cloudy while temperatures range from the upper 20s in the
coldest northeastern hollows to the mid 40s in the thermal belts.
Valley fog is noted in some river valleys, though extent and
density remain limited. Aloft, a 500 hPa ridge axis sits just west
of the Mississippi River.

The ridge shifts east across the Commonwealth today, pushing the
surface high off the Atlantic Seaboard, while a shortwave trough
ejects from the West Coast toward the Plains this evening. This
trough tracks east-northeast toward the Upper Great Lakes
Wednesday, suppressing the ridge over our region. At the surface,
a low over western Montana this morning attends the shortwave and
becomes occluded as it tracks to over/near Duluth, MN by late
Wednesday. Southerly return flow increases today across the low`s
warm sector, which includes the Ohio Valley. The low`s associated
cold front settles southeast to near the lower Ohio River late
Wednesday afternoon, stalling briefly before lifting back north
Wednesday evening. While PWATs surge to near 1 inch Wednesday, a
strong cap at 700-850 mb limits forcing, keeping shower chances
low and overall intensity minimal. However, the abundant low-
level moisture is likely to keep low clouds extensive. Modest
mixing yields a breeze this afternoon, strengthening Wednesday as
GFS mixed-layer momentum transfer reaches 20 to 30 knots.

In sensible weather terms, patchy valley fog dissipates this
morning before clouds increase aloft. Expect very mild and breezy
conditions this afternoon with highs in the lower to middle 60s.
Cloudy and breezy conditions continue tonight. Lows range from the
upper 40s in sheltered hollows to the mid 50s on ridges.
Wednesday brings a chance (25-40%) of light rain showers, with
amounts generally a few hundredths or less. Breezy conditions
persist, with southwesterly gusts of 20 to 30 mph expected.
Extensive low clouds should hold high temperatures similar to
today, mainly in the mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 356 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026

The forecast period begins with the region positioned within the
warm sector of an occluding surface cyclone migrating from the Upper
Midwest toward the Great Lakes. Within this sector, low-level
southwesterly flow will advect a warmer air mass into the area,
resulting in mild overnight lows for Wednesday night. While isolated
PoPs exist overnight, chances will increase toward sunrise. Initial
guidance suggested higher overnight PoPs; however, forecast
soundings indicate a significant layer of dry air between 850 mb and
200 mb. This dry layer is expected to cause substantial evaporation
of falling hydrometeors, necessitating a reduction in PoP chances
until the column fully saturates and precipitation can reach the
surface.

While the primary system is progged to stall over the western Great
Lakes, a secondary shortwave is forecast to develop late Wednesday
into early Thursday over the Central Plains. As this cyclone tracks
northeastward into the Midwest, its associated warm front will lift
into the region by Thursday morning. Although earlier model runs
suggested early convection, a lack of surface-based instability has
warranted the removal of thunder from the Thursday morning forecast.
The warm front is forecast to lift across the Commonwealth as the
parent surface low moves into Illinois and Indiana. Showers remain
likely throughout Thursday, with the potential for thunderstorms,
some of which could become strong to severe. Recent model suites
have increased common convective indices to more favorable
thresholds, though these may remain unrealized if post-frontal
clearing fails to occur, limiting instability ahead of the cold
front. Regardless, it is difficult to ignore a warm front in a
spring-like environment and this notion is reflected in the latest
Day 3 convective outlook from the SPC. A Slight Risk has been
introduced for areas closest to the low track, including portions of
Illinois, Indiana, and northwestern Kentucky, clipping parts of the
CWA (Montgomery, Bath and Fleming Counties). A Marginal Risk
encompasses the Slight Risk area, extending northwest of a line from
Martin County to Wayne County. Areas southeast of this line remain
under a General Thunder risk.

Shower and storm chances persist through Thursday night and Friday
morning as the cold front slowly traverses the Commonwealth. While
shower coverage may diminish slightly during the day Friday, a
secondary wave is expected to develop along the trailing boundary,
bringing renewed precipitation chances late Friday through Saturday.
The system is forecast to exit the region late Saturday night into
Sunday. However, as cold air advection intensifies, lingering wrap-
around moisture will likely transition from rain to a rain-snow mix,
and eventually all snow by late Sunday night.

Overall, the forecast remains active as multiple synoptic features
traverse the CONUS. Temperatures will remain above seasonal averages
through the work week due to persistent southwesterly flow. After
temperatures peak in the low 70s on Thursday, a cooling trend will
take hold for the remainder of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026

VFR flight conditions prevailed at TAF issuance with a few low-
VFR clouds beginning to exit the KSYM area to the north and east.
High clouds are drifting across much of the area. Additional lower
clouds are expected at times throughout the day but are not
currently expected to become a persistent ceiling. Winds will
increase out of the south and southwest this afternoon. At least a
few brief gusts into the 15 to 20 kts range are possible during
peak heating for the more western and open terrain locations such
as KIOB, KSYM, KSME, and KLOZ, though were not included in this
issuance as these may not be sustained for much duration. Winds
will tend to slacken with the loss of daytime heating around 23Z.
However, winds aloft ahead of the system in the Plains trekking
toward the upper MS Valley will begin to increase late, and will
likely result in at least marginal LLWS tonight.

Lower cigs will begin to impact the area most likely between 12z
and 18z Wednesday, but confidence in timing of sub-VFR conditions
with lowering cigs, and any potential -SHRA activity and
associated reduced viz, is low. Will thus reflect a general
lowering trend from low-VFR to MVFR conditions through this time
period, where possible, with this TAF package.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...CMC