Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

554
FXUS63 KJKL 201804 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
104 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Much colder air arrives this weekend and lingers into early
   next week.

-  Light snow may occur in some locations by Sunday and possibly
   into Monday, but any accumulations look to be minor.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 100 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026

Mixiness behind the front and solar insolation have combined for
temperatures for most locations to run higher than forecast and
despite recent rainfall, dewpoints to run lower than most if not
all guidance at present even several degrees below the NBM 5th
percentile. Hourly grids were freshened up based on these trends
as well as trends in winds gusts.

UPDATE Issued at 1010 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026

Hourly temperatures were running a bit above the previous
forecast for some locations and thus hourly temperatures and max T
were freshened up accordingly. Otherwise, mixing behind the cold
front that crossed the area late last night and early this morning
is leading to gusty southwest to westerly winds across the region.
Wind aloft are highest in the more northern/northwestern
locations and in those areas gusts are currently near 30 mph with
somewhat less gusts to the south. Only some minor adjustments
were made to wind gusts over the n ext couple of hours based on
the recent observations.

For tonight, opted to trend toward a bit sharper gradient in pops
across the south and cut them back a bit on the northern end as a
sfc wave moves along the frontal/baroclinic zone across the Gulf
sates. The further north into the CWA from the TN border counties
to Harlan County, moisture late tonight to early Saturday is more
confined to 700 mb and above. Some sprinkle cannot be absolutely
ruled out further north, but north of a tier or two of counties in
the south it is probable that just virga falls from the mid level
deck. In the more southern locations, 00Z HREF soundings and
other guidance have higher rh and more moistening a bit nearer to
the sfc and measurable rain would be more probable. Trends for
these light rain chances in the south will continue to be
monitored as the rest of the 12Z guidance and HREF arrive.

UPDATE Issued at 635 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026

With the front and its thunderstorms departing the area have
updated the grids to take out the PoPs and early morning thunder.
Did also update them with the inclusion of the latest obs and
trends for the T/Td grids. These adjustments have been sent to
the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, SAFs,
and zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 555 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026

10Z sfc analysis shows deep low pressure centered over Lake
Michigan with a cold front poised to exit far southeast Kentucky
to the east. The front brought a few severe thunderstorms along
with it, as well as heavy soaking rains that led to some minor
street flooding. With its departure, the unseasonably warm air of
the past couple of days will come to an end. As such, currently,
temperatures are mild in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Meanwhile
amid breezy west to southwest winds of 10 to 20 mph with some
higher gusts to around 30 mph, dewpoints vary from the upper 30s
northwest to the upper 50s in the far southeast - nearer the
departing front.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in pretty
good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict a dipole trough over the Great Lakes
this morning with the southern wave whipping east through the
northern Ohio Valley during the day, today. This leaves flat and
slightly southwest mid-level flow through Kentucky into tonight
and throughout much of Saturday. Embedded in this flow will be an
increasing amount of energy mainly arriving during the day
Saturday from a shallow trough over the Midwest that extends down
to eastern Texas. Given the similar solutions among the models,
the NBM was used as the starting point of the forecast grids with
some adjustments made for near term conditions as the t-storms
exit the area.

Sensible weather features the end of a busy night as storms depart
to the east with the cold front and flood advisories coming to an
end. The legacy of this front will continue through the day,
though, with breezy southwest to west winds of 10 to 20 mph and
higher gusts bringing a colder air mass to the state even as the
clouds clear out west to east early in the day. Additional clouds
move in late in the day from the west and will stick around
through the night keeping temperatures from reaching their full
potential cooling in this airmass. Even so, readings will bottom
out in the mid 30s north and near 40 in the south. A passing
southern system brings a chance of rain to the area by Saturday
morning but not much in the way of QPF. This pcpn area departs
equally quickly before more clouds arrive late in the day from the
west ahead of the next slowly developing weather system.

The changes to the NBM starting point primarily consisted of
timing the exit of the PoPs, thunder, and clouds with the near
term cold front. The winds were also beefed up through mid
afternoon to better match momentum transfer guidance from the
higher resolution models.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 450 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026

The extended forecast hasn`t changed much from the previous
issuance. A trend towards colder weather lasts through Monday
before a broader ridging pattern brings warming conditions
Tuesday onward. The previous forecast discussion can be found
below...

Progressive and amplified flow looks to remain in place through
the majority of the long term period over the CONUS. A northern
and central Plains trough will deepen as it moves southeast this
weekend, while ridging sharpens up over the Continental Divide and
slides east, broadening with time. At the surface, cyclogenesis
will take place along a lingering baroclinic zone aligned from the
Carolinas through the Deep South Saturday night into Sunday. This
low will deepen more rapidly once it reaches the Mid-Atlantic
coast, with models still differing quite a bit on the details of
the track and intensity of this feature as we begin the new work
week. The upstream broader ridging will shift east after Monday,
with recovering 500 mb heights seen across the Ohio and Tennessee
valleys. Additional northern stream energy will then move in
across the north central CONUS for middle of the week, sending a
surface cold front southeast across the Ohio Valley Wednesday into
Thursday.

Sensible weather will feature a slight chance of rain Saturday
morning, as we remain on the northern fringe of the moisture just
to our south. Highs will still average above normal in the 50s.
Better precipitation chances will occur Saturday night, as the
deeper upper level trough approaches from the northwest.
Consequently, stronger cold air advection will also ensue, with a
return of more wintertime temperatures and a changeover to light
snow late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Lows will be in the
low 30s, with highs on Sunday only a few to several degrees
higher. Snow shower activity will continue across mainly locations
east of I-75 through late Monday, gradually becoming more confined
to our southeastern terrain, as the trough over the East only
slowly pulls away. High pressure will build in Monday night, with
lows back into the teens to lower 20s, depending on how quickly
the low level cloud cover diminishes. Temperatures will then
rebound Tuesday through Thursday, with highs starting out in the
low to mid 40s for Tuesday, and then warming to the low to mid 50s
by Thursday. Dry weather can be expected from Monday night
through Wednesday morning, before rain chances increase once again
as a cold front approaches from the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026

In the wake of the cold front, solar insolation and mixiness is
leading to southwest to west winds generally 10 to 15KT with gusts
into the 20 to 30KT as higher momentum from aloft is mixing down.
As winds aloft begin to diminish during the first 6 hours of the
period, gusts and sustained speeds should also gradually decrease
by the 21Z to 01Z timeframe. Thereafter, winds will trend toward
light and variable and remain at those levels through the end of
the period. VFR is occurring and VFR is expected to prevail. There
will be an increase in mid and high level moisture with
associated cloud cover, generally after 00Z, as a wave of low
pressure passes by well south across the Gulf States and a
disturbance moves through the Appalachians. Some light rain as
well as clouds as low as 5kft could occur as far north as KSME and
KLOZ between 06Z and 14Z, but chances for this are much greater
south of the TAF sites at non TAF sites locations such as KBYL,
and in particular KI35 and K1A6.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JP