Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

218
FXUS63 KJKL 232357
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
757 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Localized heavy rainfall may occur with showers & thunderstorms
  through the evening.

- Wet weather will last through most of the upcoming week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 712 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026

Convective coverage remains unremarkable and scattered this
evening. Still can`t rule out minor flooding if activity became
particularly persistent in a given location, but the threat of
flash flooding is too low to retain the Flood Watch and it has
been cancelled early.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 426 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026

A shortwave trough and associated weak surface low are departing
to our northeast late today. The system`s poorly defined, dying
cold front is in central KY. There`s been slightly more heating
today, and this is leading to shower/thunderstorm redevelopment
ahead of the front this afternoon in an uncapped atmosphere. Even
with heating, instability remains weak and the CAPE profile is
tall and thin. With modest, largely unidirectional flow in the
steering layer and decent PW of around 1.75", these factors may
give rise to localized heavy rainfall in training cells. With a
Flood Watch already in effect for our far northern counties where
significant rain occurred in recent days, will let it ride into
the evening. As activity wanes, it can likely be cancelled or
allowed to expire later.

It appears we`ll get brushed by another shortwave trough passing
eastward to our north on Sunday, coinciding with peak heating.
Without any significant change in our atmosphere, this should give
a proliferation of showers/thunderstorms which again fade on
Sunday night as heating is lost and the shortwave departs. The
same conditions again on Sunday could also allow for locally
heavy rainfall.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026

The forecast period starts with a surface low moving eastward out of
the Ohio Valley. This surface low is progged to drag a cold front
through the area first thing Monday morning. This will provide
showers and storms early in the day, followed by a lull in activity
for the afternoon. However, by late afternoon, a surface wave moving
through the Deep South is forecast to eject north and lift a warm
front through the CWA. Showers and storms are expected to increase
in coverage Monday afternoon and persist through the overnight hours
before the front stalls as a stationary boundary, oriented west to
east across the Commonwealth for Tuesday.

This wavering boundary is forecast to stall Tuesday and remain the
focus for shower and thunderstorm development throughout most of
next week. Forecast PWs, driven by stout moisture advection,
alongside skinny CAPE soundings, continue to hint at efficient
rainfall production along this boundary. This supports a forecast
total QPF ranging from over 1.25 inches in the Bluegrass/I-64
corridor to up to 2.00 inches farther south toward the Tennessee
border. These numbers will certainly fluctuate depending on
convective activity and where mesoscale bands or heavier rainfall
set up. However, long-term guidance does hint at a breakdown of this
wet and stormy pattern late in the week as the stationary front
drops south as a cold front, bringing an end to the precipitation.
Lastly, temperatures are forecast to remain rather seasonal with
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and overnight lows in the low to
mid 60s. Once the front sags south, temperatures will cool a few
degrees, with lows dropping into the 50s.

In summary, an active and unsettled weather pattern will dominate
the region into next week as a stationary boundary stalls across the
Commonwealth. Seasonal temperatures will remain overhead, but
persistent rainfall, which will be heavy at times, could bring an
increasing threat for river and flash flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 757 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026

Conditions were primarily VFR at TAF issuance outside any ongoing
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Coverage of this activity
should generally become isolated overnight. However, showers
could still occur at about any time through the night. The
showers/thunderstorms will cause localized reductions below VFR.
Fog is possible overnight at any of the terminals as well but
extent is unclear due to lingering cloud cover. An increase in
showers/thunderstorms is forecast on Sunday, with renewed flight
category reductions. However, forecast confidence on Sunday is
only modest.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON/HAL