Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

133
FXUS63 KJKL 241615
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1115 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  The last of the flurries end early this morning.

-  Much colder air lingers this morning, but a warming trend
   engages later today with decent rain chances on tap for
   Thursday into Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1115 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026

High clouds are a little thicker than was forecast, and sky cover
has been increased for today. If this persists, high temps could
be held back some, but will wait a while longer to see what
happens before making changes to temps.

UPDATE Issued at 650 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 405 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026

08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure slipping into the area from
the southwest and this is working to bring an end to the last of
the flurries early this morning, though some lower clouds remain.
These clouds have kept temperatures for much of eastern Kentucky
from bottoming out completely. Accordingly, current readings vary
from the mid 20s under the lingering cloud cover to the upper
teens where more clearing has occurred on the fringes of the JKL
CWA. Meanwhile, amid light and variable winds, dewpoints are
generally in the mid teens with some low 20s noted in the far
east.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, continue to be
in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict Kentucky positioned in the southwest
quadrant of a large trough pushing southeast into the Great
Lakes. This maintains the fast mid level flow from the west
northwest across the region - carrying a series of impulses
through the state. Even as the core of the trough stays off to the
northeast on Wednesday, its mid-level energy stream will dip into
eastern Kentucky before pulling out to the northeast by evening.
With similar model solutions through the short term portion of the
forecast, the NBM was used as the starting point of the grids
along with some adjustments made to have some small PoPs around
tonight and Wednesday by including more of the current CAMs
consensus.

Sensible weather features a cold morning as the flurries come to
an end. Some returning sunshine and increasing southwest winds
will help warm up the area by afternoon with temperatures making
it into the low to mid 40s. The passing of a fairly strong weather
system to the north will result in a tightening pressure gradient
through Kentucky this afternoon and into the night yielding breezy
southwesterly winds - ahead of an approaching, initially dry,
cold front. This boundary settles into the JKL CWA late tonight
into Wednesday morning with some spotty and insignificant pcpn
mainly consisting of sprinkles/flurries and inducing a pre-dawn
temperature rise. This boundary will then stall south of the state
later Wednesday afternoon keeping the threat of light, but all
liquid, pcpn going for the southern parts of the CWA while
temperatures make it to the mid 50s most places.

The changes to the NBM starting point primarily consisted of
beefing up the small PoPs tonight and Wednesday per the latest
higher resolution CAMs guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 415 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026

The main change to the extended forecast this morning was to
add more terrain distinction to nighttime temperatures for a
couple of the nights over the upcoming weekend. Also, the main
rain maker this week continues to shift its heavier rain axis
further south while being more progressive - lessening the
concerns for excessive rainfall - with WPC concurring and taking
out the marginal ERO for the area on Thursday.

The previous long term discussion follows:

The long wave pattern will feature progressive and fairly
amplified flow across most of the CONUS through the long term
period. A broad trough will start out positioned from the Great
Lakes through the Gulf Coast states. Upstream, a positively tilted
short wave trough will be aligned from the northern
Plains/Rockies through the Pacific Northwest, with ridging seen
just off of the West Coast. The short wave trough will cruise
southeast, moving over the middle Mississippi River Valley by late
Thursday. Meanwhile, additional short wave energy will be inbound
from south central Canada by late in the work week, also helping
to maintain troughing in the East. A temporary flattening of the
flow occurs by early next week, although by that time, model
differences regarding smaller scale features increase more
substantially, lending to lower confidence in the forecast.

Mostly cloudy skies will linger for most on Wednesday, with
warming temperatures in moderate low level warm air advection.
Highs will be in the mid 50s, with at least a small chance of
light rain as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This
front will then stall across our area Wednesday night into
Thursday, with another surge of moisture nosing in from the west
southwest from 925-850 mb, reinforcing clouds and better rain
chances after midnight. As the better mid and upper level support
arrive on Thursday, surface low pressure will gen up along a
nearly stalled frontal boundary and pass through the TN/KY border,
bringing a soaking rainfall to the area. Highs will range from
the 40s north of the Mountain Parkway to the upper 50s bordering
Tennessee.

Regarding the rainfall, the ECMWF continues to be the more
bullish model with forecast PWATs above 1 inch nosing in across
portions of the Cumberland Valley, with the GFS showing more
modest moisture return. Instability remains low, and the residence
time of the higher PWATs will mainly be limited to the 12z
Thursday through 00z Friday timeframe. The ECMWF probabilities for
exceeding an inch in 24 hours remain in the 50-60% range across
southeastern Kentucky; however, these higher numbers have
generally shifted southeast with time. Probabilities for exceeding
2 inches in 24 hours have trended down from the 00z run, now
generally around 10%. Additionally, streamflows are running in the
normal range for the Cumberland, as this basin avoided the
embedded bands of heavier rain seen across portions of eastern
Kentucky last Thursday and Friday. As such, significant river
rises remain less likely at this time.

The rain will taper off Thursday night, as low pressure and its
attendant cold front exits to our southeast. Dry weather returns
from Friday through Sunday morning, as surface high pressure takes
hold. Temperatures will cool off a bit for Friday, with highs in
the 50s and lows in the 30s, but still near to slightly above
normal for this time of year. Readings will then rebound into the
60s for Saturday. The next weather system approaches the area
Sunday into Monday, with a return of rain chances; however,
confidence remains low on the details this far out with PoPs only
peaking at around 40%. Highs will range from around 50 north, to
the lower 60s south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 710 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026

The last of the flurries are exiting the area along with the
lingering batches of MVFR clouds. VFR conditions will then
dominate through the day with just a high deck of clouds around -
but starting to lower during the night. Winds are light and
variable across the area this morning but will pick up after 15Z -
becoming southwest at 7 to 12 kts with some gusts to 20 kts owing
to the next weather system`s approach. Look for some light rain
or snow possibilities towards dawn, Wednesday. In addition,
expect some LLWS from the southwest at up to 50 kts this evening
and into the overnight.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL/.GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JKL/GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF