Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

556
FXUS63 KJKL 151955
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
355 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot summer weather continues into tomorrow, with widespread heat
  indices in the 90s. A few locations may experience maximum heat
  indices around 100 degrees tomorrow afternoon.

- Chances for isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms
  return to the forecast tomorrow across the southwestern half of
  the area.

- Shower and storm chances increase this weekend as high
  temperatures return to near-normal values in the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 348 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Summertime weather continues across Eastern Kentucky this afternoon,
with temperatures rising into the upper 80s across much of the
forecast area as of the time of writing. Expect MaxTs to culminate
in the lower 90s for many locales this afternoon, as the antecedent
ridging synoptics favor efficient diurnal warming (and cooling)
processes. This afternoon`s extensive field of cumulus clouds is
progged to subside as the sun sets tonight, but the proximity of the
aforementioned ridging makes these clouds less likely to produce
precipitation than yesterday.

The latest forecast guidance suite collectively resolves an
elongated ridge extending through the Ohio River Valley from the
Upper Midwest and then into the Mid-Atlantic States. Its narrow
circulation has fed some Canadian wildfire smoke into the column
above our northeastern counties, so the eastern sky may have a
hazier look to it today. More importantly though, it has introduced
subsidence and midlevel dry air into the column. This will suppress
the depth of this afternoon`s convective cumulus field and lead to
another seasonably hot and dry summer day. HOwever, the parent
ridging is progged to gradually weaken/broaden overnight into
tomorrow. The related surface anticyclone subsequently shifts south
and allows more southerly low-level return flow to set up over the
CWA by tomorrow morning. Thus, after one more night of ridge-valley
temperature splits (cooler valleys in the 60s and warmer ridgetops
closer to 70) and high-confidence river valley fog formation, the
forecast looks to become more active tomorrow.

Any lingering fog near the area`s waterways should burn off by mid-
morning tomorrow. Temperatures should once again quickly rise
towards the upper 80s/lower 90s by early afternoon, albeit with
dewpoints a few degrees higher than today. This increase in humidity
will cause heat indices to approach the triple digits in urbanized
areas and in the area`s deepest valleys, but widespread heat impacts
are not anticipated. This in part due to the development of a more
extensive and deeper cumulus field during peak diurnal heating
tomorrow. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along and
southwest of the KY-15 corridor could provide some localized heat
from the relief, and there will be enough instability in place for
some of this convection to produce lightning, localized downpours,
and erratic wind gusts. However, there is not enough shear nor
enough forcing for tomorrow`s activity to become organized or tall,
and the risk for widespread severe weather or hydrological impacts
is low. Convection should fizzle out with the loss of diurnal
heating tomorrow evening, but the potential for lingering cloud
cover and pockets of recently wet grounds introduces uncertainty in
the forecast for ridge/valley splits and fog formation tomorrow
night. For now, patchy fog was confined to the conventional river
valleys and only modest topographic temperature edits were made.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 348 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Subtropical ridging aloft will extend from the Atlantic westward
into the southeast CONUS at the start of the period, but it will be
in an ongoing weakening trend. Deep moisture pivoting around the
southwestern side of the weakening ridge will arrive in our area
from the west on Friday and Friday night as a weak upper level wave
approaches from the west northwest on the southwest side of a
strengthening northeast CONUS trough. Our low level flow will also
be picking up out of the west southwest, providing low level
moisture transport. These factors all lead to an increasing
potential for showers/thunderstorms as we move into the weekend,
with additional peaks due to diurnal heating/destabilization
occurring during the afternoon and early evening hours on Friday and
Saturday. In association with the northeast CONUS trough, models now
are offering a little bit stronger cold front arriving from the
north on Saturday night and Sunday as compared to 24 hours ago. This
could keep a higher POP ongoing into Sunday, but should the front
pass cleanly, it would also allow for more of a drop in POP from
Sunday night into Monday as the aforementioned wave departs and
subtle geopotential height rises occur.

Another wave is expected to rotate through the upper trough and
support a more significant cold front to approach on Tuesday and
move through Tuesday night. Another increase in POP would be
expected with this, followed by the arrival of lower dew points and
probably dry weather on Wednesday after fropa.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026

VFR conditions prevail at the TAF sites this afternoon. A
diurnally-drive cumulus field has developed across the CWA, with
the greatest spatial coverage across southern and western
terminals. These clouds are less likely to evolve into rain
showers than they were yesterday, and they are poised to subside
after sunset. Valley fog is once again forecast to develop
overnight, with both probabilistic and persistence guidance
suggesting that IFR reductions are most likely at KSME and then
KLOZ by tomorrow morning. KSJS and KSYM could see brief reductions
to MVFR vsbys from patchier fog, and all of the above has been
handled with TEMPO groups with the 18z TAF issuance. Expect fog to
mix out by mid-morning and give way to another day of convective
cumulus clouds tomorrow afternoon. Precipitation chances increase
at SW terminals just beyond the end of the period, so interests
with future flight plans are encouraged to monitor for further TAF
issuances. Expect winds to remain generally light and variable for
the duration of the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MARCUS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...MARCUS