Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

900
FXUS63 KJKL 171016
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
516 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and snow will taper off through early this morning, with
  impacts mainly limited to elevations above 2500 feet.

- Temperatures averaging 10 to 20 degrees below normal will be in
  place over the area from Saturday night through Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 357 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026

A sprawling surface low is over the upper Great Lakes early this
morning, beneath a deep upper trough over the central and eastern
CONUS. A series of cold fronts and trough are pivoting around the
storm system. One of these, with the aid of an upper jet streak,
brought precip to our area overnight, with the last of this precip
lingering over southeast KY this morning (but on the way out).
Temperatures have been borderline for accumulating snow vs. rain.
With precip having finished in our northwestern counties, the WSW
was cancelled early there. The advisory remains in effect for
Harlan and Letcher counties. In reality, if it were not already in
effect there, it probably would not be issued. It looks as if the
only meaningful snow accumulations in those counties will
probably be above about 2500 feet, where 1-3 inches will probably
occur before it`s finishes this morning.

Another cold front is over western KY early this morning and will
move quickly east through the rest of the state this morning as it
weakens. Can`t rule out a few snow showers or flurries with this
in our area, especially in our northern counties, but it
shouldn`t amount to much. Yet another surge of colder air will
arrive approach from the west this evening, along with another
jet streak riding through the upper trough. This could again bring
some snow showers or light snow to the area tonight, but the
probability of measurable precip looks minimal.

Once tonight`s system departs to the east, surface ridging and a
very cold air mass will arrive for Sunday with the upper trough
still in place. Despite a return of more sun, Sunday`s
temperatures should remain below freezing.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 516 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026

An amplified long wave pattern will remain in place across most
of North America through Friday. Early next week, a sharp ridge axis
will be aligned from Alaska through the West Coast, while deep
troughing is positioned from Hudson Bay through the center of the
CONUS. Northern stream energy, some streaming south southeastward
out of the western third of Canada, along with energy gyring
around a deep closed low centered over Hudson Bay, will continue
to maintain this trough through the middle of next week. The
trough will then become more broad and dampened somewhat after
Thursday. This will result in temperatures averaging between 10
and 20 degrees below normal for eastern Kentucky through Tuesday
night. Readings will then modify to slightly above normal
Wednesday, before trending around 5 degrees below normal Thursday
through Friday.

A few passing short wave troughs will swing through the Ohio
Valley Sunday night into Monday, propelling a moisture-starved
cold front through the region at the surface. The low levels
continue to look too dry to support measurable precipitation, with
mainly an increase in cloud cover and perhaps a few flurries
occurring across the area. High pressure will build in from the
west Monday night, with clearing skies and temperatures dipping
into the single digits for lows. The cold start to Tuesday will
allow for highs mainly in the 20s, besides a few locations closer
to the Tennessee border, where the 30 degree mark may be breached.
High pressure will shift off to our southeast Tuesday night into
Wednesday, with return flow ensuing. Temperatures will rebound
into the 40s on Wednesday, with the next frontal system
approaching from the northwest Wednesday night into Thursday. PoPs
have only increased to 40% during this time frame, and there
remains uncertainty with the amount of moisture return between the
GFS and ECMWF. Temperatures will start out more supportive of
rain in the lowest levels of the atmosphere, but as the column
cools through wetbulbing, a changeover to snow would likely occur.
Again, given the uncertainty, it`s too early to outline specific
impacts. High pressure will follow this frontal system, before
perhaps another moisture-starved cold front approaches from the
northwest. This is low confidence, with the blended guidance
depicting only a 20% chance of precipitation on Friday. Highs on
Thursday and Friday will be in the 30s and 40s, with lows mainly
in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026

An area of precipitation was over the northwest half of the JKl
forecast area at TAF issuance, and shifting slowly southeast. The
leading edge and the southern portion was mainly rain, while the
remainder of the northern portion was snow. Conditions in the rain
were largely MVFR, while it was generally IFR in the snow.

The precipitation will overtake the remainder of the forecast area
overnight, with the rain becoming mainly snow as time goes by. IFR
conditions are forecast to affect most of the area at least for a
time overnight. Precipitation will also diminish from northwest
to southeast overnight and around dawn. A gradual improvement to
MVFR is expected after precipitation tapers off. Further
improvement to VFR is expected for most places on Saturday
afternoon. However, snow showers may also develop in the
afternoon, with localized poorer conditions. Otherwise, once VFR
conditions return, they should last into Saturday night.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for KYZ088-
118.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...HAL