Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

663
FXUS63 KJKL 161354
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
954 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and thunderstorm potential arrives to start the weekend,
  followed by a pattern shift that favors much above normal
  temperatures for early next week.

- A marginal to slight risk for severe storms exists this
  afternoon into the evening for most of eastern Kentucky, with
  damaging wind being the main threat.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 954 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026

Clouds are extensive over the northern portion of the forecast
area and considerable convective precip has developed to the west
and northwest of that area and will probably develop eastward or
east southeastward today. The precip or at least debris clouds
should hold temperatures back a bit, and max readings for today
have been scaled back, especially for our northern counties.

UPDATE Issued at 602 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026

Updated T/Td/Sky grids in the very near term based on latest
observed trends. Otherwise, the more significant changes were made
to PoPs this morning through tonight based on latest model data
and upstream trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 229 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026

Shortwaves moving through west-southwest flow aloft will move
across the southern Ohio River Valley today, with an associated
mid-level speed max across the Bluegrass State. These features
will help induce stronger warm advection, which will increase
moisture and instability as the day progresses. The initial wave
of showers arrives as early as mid-morning, mainly across the
northern half of the forecast area, with additional rounds of
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.

There remains a conditional risk for isolated severe storms this
afternoon into the evening, with sufficient shear and moisture
in place by late afternoon, but the question is how much heating
can occur in the afternoon after late morning and early afternoon
shower activity, and resultant convective instability. If
isolated severe storms were to develop and/or move into the area,
damaging winds and large hail would be the primary severe threats.

The shower and thunderstorm threat, along with any severe risk,
will decrease into the late evening and overnight as drier air
and ridging move into the area from the south and southwest, with
more substantial height rises occurring during the day Sunday.
This will allow for a substantial warm-up, with highs reaching the
mid to upper 80s, and perhaps touching 90 degrees in one or two
spots.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 229| AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026

The long wave pattern starts off amplified, with a ridge of high
pressure sprawled from the western Atlantic to central Mexico, while
a positively tilted trough is aligned from Hudson Bay through the
northern Rockies and off the coast of Baja California. This trough
will gradually broaden and shift east with time next week, with the
ridge getting shunted off to the east and southeast, leaving mainly
zonal flow across the CONUS by next Friday. Well above normal
temperatures will reign across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
through early next week, before bouts of short wave energy and an
accompanying surface frontal system sags southeast across the
region, bringing a more sustained threat of daily showers and
thunderstorms through the end of the upcoming work week.

Very warm weather will be on tap for eastern Kentucky through
Tuesday, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Have continued to
stay below the blended guidance for the highs, given its warm bias
as of late. Lows will be in the 60s, with modest ridge/valley splits
both Sunday and Monday nights. Daily record highs at Jackson and
London will be threatened on Monday and Tuesday. A cold front will
move towards the area on Tuesday, with increasing moisture allowing
for a return of mainly diurnally driven convection. The cold front
will move through the area late Wednesday, with more widespread
convection expected. The front will then gradually sag further
southeast with time through Friday, but enough moisture will linger
to allow for some renewed diurnally driven rain chances each day,
generally becoming more confined to our southeastern terrain with
time. The blended guidance tends to be a bit aggressive with this
type of pattern, so convective coverage may be less in reality if
model trends hold.

The 90 degree weather will also be short-lived as highs retreat to
the low to mid 80s on Wednesday, and then back closer to normal
readings in the mid 70s for Thursday. Temperatures will then bump up
a few degrees to finish out the work week, with highs returning to
the upper 70s to near 80 by Friday. After the summer-like overnight
lows in the 60s for early next week, minimums will return to mainly
the 50s following the frontal passage late Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 723 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026

VFR conditions to begin the period will give way to the risk for
showers/thunderstorms with sub-VFR conditions on Saturday,
especially for northern and western locations (including KIOB and
KSYM) from around ~14z-16z, with improving skies and conditions
from southwest to northeast. Winds will be southwest 5 to 10 kts
during the day today, becoming light and variable or south at 5
kts or less. Fog will be possible tonight for those locations
that see rain today, but confidence is too low to include in any
TAFs at this time.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL/CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...CMC