Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

264
FXUS63 KJKL 240654
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
254 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A very dry air mass will settle over the region, dropping
  afternoon humidity levels into the 10 to 20 percent range today,
  and still sub-30 percent for most areas on Wednesday.

- Temperatures will soar to 15 to 20 degrees above normal on Thu.
  A strong cold front will then bring numerous to widespread
  showers and a chance of thunderstorms late Thu night into Fri.

- Much colder air returns behind the front this weekend, bringing
  the potential for widespread sub-freezing temperatures Fri and
  Sat nights.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026

A much cooler air mass is enveloping eastern Kentucky this
morning on light northeasterly winds--temperatures range from the
lower 30s north of I-64 to the lower 40s over the Cumberland River
Basin, all under partly cloudy skies. At the surface, an ~1031 mb
surface high is passing across Lower Michigan and Lake Erie
between 500 hPa troughing over New England and 500 hPa ridging
over the Western CONUS. The Greater Ohio Valley region will remain
under a northwest flow aloft between these two upper-level
features through the short term period. Multiple perturbations
will bring increased upper-level moisture at times, but the low
levels will remain very dry as the surface high pressure drifts
southeast to over the Mid-Atlantic Coast. This will result in
surface winds veering northeast to southeast and downsloping off
of the Central and Southern Appalachians today into this evening
before turning more south to southwest on Wednesday along the back
side of the surface high, thus allowing for a gradual moisture
uptick within a mild southerly return flow.

For today, one of those upper perturbations will lead to some
increased high cloud cover this morning, but very dry air will be
present below 700 hPa. Once diurnal heating and mixing are underway,
the drier end of the NBM suite and HRRR are favored for dew
points. This yields widespread dew points in the mid-teens to
around 20F for this afternoon. Combined with temperatures in the
mid 50s north of I-64 to the mid 60s near the TN/KY border, this
should yield minimum relative humidity values in the 10 to 20
percent range at most locations. This will help dry out the finer
fuels, but weak winds should limit overall fire danger.

Tonight, another upper-level perturbation will lead to increased
cloud cover, but it should remain thin enough for at least a moderate
ridge-valley temperature split. The dry dew points will allow
rapid temperature falls in valleys after sunset, yet weak low-
level WAA on the back side of the high should keep thermal belts
mild. The result is forecast lows ranging from the upper 20s in
the sheltered northern hollows to the mid 40s on thermal belt
ridges. (Note that some of the COOP MOS suggests mid 20s in the
coldest valley locales but cloud cover thickness will be a
factor). Some patchy frost is possible in sheltered valleys.

Air temperatures and dew points will be on the rise for Wednesday
under mostly sunny skies. Look for afternoon highs in the upper 60s
to lower 70s while dew points recover into the 20s east to 30s
west, yielding minimum relative humidity values in the 15 to 30
percent range. Winds will also be stronger on Wednesday from the
south southwest at 5 to 10 mph with some gusts to around 15 mph
possible at times.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2026

Moisture will slowly return with a light southwesterly breeze on
Wednesday, then increase a bit more on Thursday ahead of another
strong cold front. The southwesterly winds may gust to 20 mph
Thursday afternoon while temperatures rise to near 80 degrees.

Showers with a few storms will increase with the approach of the
front Thursday night into Friday, with temperatures behind the
front only reaching the 50s on Friday. Lows will dip to near or
below freezing both Friday night and Saturday night as high
pressure builds into the region. This will result in dry weather
through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026

VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites through the period
as high pressure builds across the OH Valley and settles along the
mid Atlantic coast by the end of the period. Only some high and
mid level clouds are anticipated from time to time across eastern
Kentucky. In this pattern, northeast to easterly winds at less
than 10 kts are forecast through the TAF period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...CH
AVIATION...GEERTSON/JP/GUEST