Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

405
FXUS63 KJKL 052335 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
635 PM EST Wed Nov 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms Friday into Friday night will bring a
  soaking rain to eastern Kentucky.

- A few thunderstorms may be strong to severe Friday afternoon
  through the late evening, with the highest threat west of
  Interstate 75. Damaging winds look to be the primary severe
  weather threat at this time.

- The coldest air of the season arrives this weekend.
  Temperatures will fall on Sunday, and highs on Monday may
  struggle to reach the 40-degree mark.

- The first snowflakes of the season are possible Sunday night
  into Monday, but any accumulating snowfall will be light and
  mainly at the highest elevations.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025

23Z sfc analysis shows a dry cold front dropping into the area
from the north bringing with it mainly just a brief time of partly
cloudy skies and perhaps a stray sprinkle. For the bulk of the
time this evening and overnight the skies will be clear. Winds are
switching more northwesterly in the wake of this front from the
southwest ahead of it as they have mostly settled below 10 mph
with sunset. Currently, temperatures are running in the mid 60s
at the bulk of the obs sites with some of the more sheltered
valleys reporting upper 50s. Meanwhile, dewpoints range from the
upper 30s on some of the eastern ridges to the mid 40s to the low
50s closer to the front. Have updated the forecast mainly to add
in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids and also to
tweak the small PoPs associated with this front through the rest
of the evening. These minor adjustments have been sent to the
NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

UPDATE Issued at 518 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025

There are no major changes to the forecast. The update is
essentially a refresh of the afternoon package with the most
recent hourly observations used as the initialization.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 150 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025

Current conditions show a mix of sun and highs clouds across the
area. Breezy conditions will diminish towards sunset, as there will
be less momentum transfer of winds aloft, due to the loss of daytime
heating. For the time being, winds have been gusting 25 to 30 mph
throughout the afternoon, and may continue to do so over the next
few hours. Afternoon temperatures have climbed into the upper 60s
to low 70s as a result of the stern southwest winds. Tonight, skies
clear out and winds become light and variable, leading to a steep
drop in temperature behind a cold front this evening. Lows will
bottom out in the low 30s in hollows and sheltered valleys, and the
upper 30s to neat 40 along ridge tops.

Thursday, much of the area will be under high pressure, resulting in
sunny skies, highs in the upper 50s to low 60s, and light easterly
winds. Thursday night, mostly clear skies early will result in a
decent ridge valley split in temperatures. Sheltered valleys and
hollows are expected to see lows in the mid to upper 30s, with ridge
tops in the lower 40s. Cloud cover will increase later in the night
approaching daybreak Friday ahead of the next approaching weather
system.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025

Model agreement is good through Friday and Friday night, but begins
to diverge with the weekend system with the operational GFS and its
ensemble mean a weaker and less amplified solution than the EC AIFS
Ensemble Mean, ECMWF Ensemble Mean, and the CMC Ensemble Mean.
Models then trend back toward better agreement with the overall more
mundane forecast toward the end of the long-term period next week.

Beginning Friday, an active jet stream with approaching shortwave
will be preceded by strong warm advection through the lower and mid-
levels of the atmosphere, allowing for a significant increase in
moisture and at least weak instability by the mid-afternoon hours
ahead of a strong progressive cold front. The weak instability will
allow for thunderstorm development/occurrence, with abundant shear
to support a few strong to severe storms capable of producing
damaging winds should this instability materialize. Higher
instability is expected upstream of the area across Middle
Tennessee, where a few supercells capable of producing damaging
winds, hail, and possibly an isolated tornado will be within the
realm of possibility, and we will monitor trends to see if any of
this activity can reach areas west of Interstate 75 late in the
afternoon or early evening before weakening. QPF still looks to be
roughly in the 0.4- to 0.8-inch range for this event areawide.

As this system departs to the east Saturday, the pattern immediately
reloads to the west with a stronger and more amplified upper low
rapidly digging from the northwest toward the Ohio River Valley. The
ECMWF is notably stronger and more amplified with the leading
shortwave and cold front that approaches the area Saturday night and
crosses the area early Sunday, with the potential for a broken line
of showers capable of producing strong gusty winds as the front
passes. Additionally, it is much deeper with the parent upper low
over the Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions with much lower heights
and thicknesses Sunday through Monday. With good support from the
ECMWF AIFS and CMC Ensemble Means, would lean towards a deeper,
colder forecast for Monday, with highs potentially struggling to
reach 40 degrees Monday after the frontal passage, with the GFS
solution looking like a breezier and slightly more mixed solution
compared to the ECMWF.

Cold advection scattered snow showers look like a good bet across
eastern Kentucky in the wake of the cold front and underneath the
deep upper trough/low Sunday night into Monday. Some of this snow
could accumulate over the higher mountains along the Virginia border
if sustained enough in nature, especially the Black Mountain area,
where NBM 4.3 48-hour probabilities slightly exceed 30 percent for
greater than 1 inch snow. Otherwise, such probabilities are quite
low over the remainder of the area currently, generally in the 5 to
15 percent range, highest the more east and northeast through the
CWA. Perhaps the biggest story will be the cold late this weekend
through early next week, where highs Monday may be over 20 degrees
below normal, with the long-range ECMWF MOS only depicting a high of
35 degrees Monday. Lows in the teens Monday night/Tuesday morning
are also possible as skies clear under potentially good radiational
cooling conditions.

Temperatures moderate back toward normal through the remainder of
next week, though another chilly night in the valleys east of the
escarpment will be possible Tuesday night under a strong inversion,
and particularly if warm advection cloud cover is delayed into the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 635 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025

VFR conditions were noted at the 00Z TAF issuance. A period of
mid-level cloud cover can be expected this evening with a dry
cold frontal passage. Skies then clear during the second half of
the night as high pressure moves in and calms the wind. There is
a low chance of fog developing across the Bluegrass area, where
skies clear the soonest, later this evening. Clear skies will be
the rule for Thursday along with light easterly winds.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...GINNICK/GREIF