Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

351
FXUS63 KJKL 121225 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
725 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A clipper system is winding down across the area this morning.

- A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for Montgomery and Bath
  counties, while Winter Weather Advisories continue for the rest
  of eastern Kentucky until 10 am.

- Another light to moderate snowfall is increasingly likely
  Saturday night and early Sunday, mainly north of the Mountain
  Parkway.

- An arctic airmass with significantly below normal temperatures
  moves into our region for Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2025

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
Did also touch up the PoPs per the current radar and CAMs
guidance. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and
web servers along with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 450 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2025

08Z sfc analysis shows a compact area of low pressure pushing into
the state from the west. This has allowed a warm front to set up
over eastern Kentucky and act as a guide for snowfall last night
and into this morning. The snow is currently targeting the
northern portions of the JKL CWA, though another less intense band
is expected to impact the south during the next few hours.
Otherwise, under cloudy skies, temperatures are generally in the
upper 20s to lower 30s - a tad warmer closer to the Tennessee
border. Meanwhile, amid light and variable winds, dewpoints are
running in the mid to upper 20s most places. Web cams around the
area show plenty of mainly wet roads with some snow covered ones
in the higher terrain and where the steadier snows have occurred -
along and north of the Hal Rogers Parkway/Highway 80 corridor.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in pretty
good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict an active longwave h5 trough parked over
the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes/New England region. This is keeping
Kentucky in fast northwest flow at mid-levels as a series of
impulses pass by. The latest one pushes through Ohio this morning
bringing brief height falls to eastern Kentucky. However, by
evening, 5h heights will be on the rebound in its wake while
another potent shortwave trough sets up north of Wisconsin. This
next system will likely be the one everyone remembers most this
December for the cold air mass that follows later this weekend.
In the meantime, the robust shortwave winds up and shifts
southeast into the mitt of Michigan by 00Z Sunday with this pivot
making it poised to dive south with a vengeance. Meanwhile, in a
very tight 5h height gradient, the next impulse charges toward
the Ohio River. The pretty small spread among the models supported
using the NBM as the starting point of the forecast grids with
minimal adjustments needed - mainly to include cooler hourly
temperatures from the CONSShort today on account of the snowfall.

Sensible weather features the snow winding down from southwest to
northeast this morning for most of the area - lingering longest
in the far east early this afternoon. Plenty of clouds and the
fresh snow for the area will keep temperatures rather chilly
through the day - coldest north and milder in the south where a
rebound into the low 40s are possible. With the snowfall behind us
tonight, expect a quiet night as clouds continue to hold in
keeping temperatures from dropping off too much but still a bit
chilly on account of the snow on the ground. WAA over the snow
may also lead to areas of light fog tonight for much of the area.
Saturday will be warmer in the southern parts of the area ahead of
the next system as the winds turn southwesterly, though cooler
air holds on in the north. Towards evening, snow will be possible
in the north with the next potent wave approaching - but the bulk
of any snow fall will occur that night.

The changes to the NBM starting point were primarily focused on
dampening the temperature guidance via the CONSShort today due to
the snow cover. Did also include some the CAMs guidance for PoPs
in the near term to catch the most recent high resolution model
trends.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 316 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2025

The forecast period commences with the passage of the third and
final Alberta clipper through the Ohio Valley. This well-defined
shortwave trough is projected to track eastward through the Ohio
Valley before ejecting northeastward toward New England. Consistent
with previous model iterations, significant changes have not
occurred with respect to the temporal and spatial evolution of this
rapidly propagating feature. As this system translates southeastward
across the Ohio Valley, the PoP will increase, but the northerly
trajectory of the low-pressure center remains consistent. This track
is favorable for the heaviest precipitation and snow accumulation to
remain north of the CWA, mainly focusing along the Ohio River. Model
uncertainty remains subtle, with minor north-south oscillations in
the track evident in successive model runs. Such small-scale track
adjustments would have notable implications for projected snowfall
totals, the precise placement of the freezing line, and the
distribution of frozen versus liquid precipitation. Nonetheless, the
greatest snow accumulations are forecast to occur outside and north
of the CWA. Within the CWA, a Winter Weather Advisory criterion is
anticipated to be met for locations generally along and north of a
line extending from Powell to Pike Counties through Sunday morning.

Lingering stratiform snow showers and flurries will be possible
through the day on Sunday. However, forecast emphasis shifts rapidly
to the arrival of unseasonably cold temperatures following the
passage of the Arctic front. Synoptically, surface high pressure
will rapidly build into the region in the wake of the departing low-
pressure system. Correspondingly, upper-level northwesterly flow
will facilitate the CAA of the coldest air mass of the season thus
far through the early portion of the succeeding week. Maximum
temperatures on Sunday are projected to range from the mid-teens
Fahrenheit across the northern extent of the CWA to the mid-20s
Fahrenheit nearer the Tennessee border. Overnight minimum
temperatures will be substantially colder, particularly for the
Sunday night/Monday morning period. The confluence of factors
including sustained CAA, radiational cooling under clear skies, and
residual snow cover will allow minimum temperatures to fall into the
negative single digits Fahrenheit (primarily in the Bluegrass region
and sheltered valley locations) to positive single digits Fahrenheit
elsewhere. Mid-level flow is forecast to shift from a northwesterly
to a southwesterly component beginning Monday, which will induce a
gradual warming trend anticipated by the middle of next week, ahead
of the next significant synoptic-scale system approaching the region
near the end of the forecast period.

Predominantly quasi-zonal flow will persist across the region
through much of the upcoming week. This pattern is forecast to
undergo trough amplification commencing Thursday morning as a
shortwave trough develops rapidly off the Rockies and quickly
traverses the CONUS. This trough will lead to increasing PoP through
the day on Thursday. In conjunction with increasing precipitation
potential, surface winds are forecast to become strong, with LREF
probabilities indicating a widespread 50 to 60 percent chance of
wind gusts exceeding 30 miles per hour (mph) in advance of Thursdays
frontal passage. Winds will subsequently diminish behind the front,
but residual rain showers are anticipated to linger through the end
of the forecast period.

In summation, an Alberta clipper system is forecast to bring light
snow accumulations to areas generally north of the Mountain Parkway
from Saturday night into Sunday. Strong post-frontal surface high
pressure will subsequently establish itself over the region on
Sunday, driving minimum temperatures down into the upper single
digits and mid-teens Fahrenheit. A gradual warming trend will
commence on Monday, but the next significant system will arrive late
in the week, bringing rain and strong winds.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2025

A band of snow still capable of producing IFR conditions will
gradually move northeast with time and fade out this morning. The
worst conditions are anticipated over the northeastern half of
the CWA for the next couple of hours - affecting JKL, SJS, and
SYM. The precipitation will be more fleeting near Lake
Cumberland, where the snow has mostly ended. Light and variable
winds will continue through the period. As a passing warm front
lifts through the area this morning, locations to the south of
the front, especially with snow on the ground, could see some
visibility reductions in fog continuing into the upcoming night.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for KYZ044-
052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for KYZ050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GREIF