Radcliff, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

190
FXUS63 KLMK 181651
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1251 PM EDT Sun May 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday and Tuesday.

* Below normal temperatures expected late next week and into the
  Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1018 AM EDT Sun May 18 2025

Satellite imagery shows mostly sunny skies across the region this
morning.  Temperatures were in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.  Some
middle 70s were already being seen down along the KY/TN border.

For the rest of the morning and afternoon, mostly sunny skies are
expected.  Some high clouds will likely pass across our far
southwest this afternoon.  Afternoon highs in the middle 70s are
expected across southern IN and the northern half of Kentucky. Upper
70s and lower 80s are generally expected along and south of the
Cumberland Parkway.  Current forecast has this well and only did
some minor tweaks to the ongoing forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Sun May 18 2025

Quiet weather is expected today and into this evening with shortwave
ridging aloft and a weak sfc pressure gradient. Could see fairly
extensive cirrus cover as the anvil blowoff from storms over
Missouri streams overhead, but that won`t make much of a dent in
temps. Thickness progs suggest afternoon max temps close to
persistence.

Later tonight we`ll see thickening clouds as another vigorous low
pressure system takes shape over the Rockies, and Gulf moisture arcs
NW along a sharpening warm front into the Mississippi Valley. Our
precip chances start to ramp up prior to daybreak Monday as we start
to see isentropic lift develop. Better rain chances late tonight
will be over western Kentucky.

Low-confidence forecast for Monday as it depends on the evolution of
convection that`s expected to develop by early this evening over
eastern Kansas and western Missouri. This activity will initially
lift NE but congeal into a MCS, after which it would try to round
the top of the upper ridge. How well it holds together will make the
difference between weakening showers and storms pushing through on
Monday morning, or a MCV fueling new and stronger convection later
in the day. If we can destabilize, there is just enough deep-layer
shear to support a few strong to severe storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Sun May 18 2025

On Tuesday, the upper level trough axis across the Plains will shift
eastward and the Ohio Valley will get more solidly into the warm
sector as the warm frontal boundary lifts northeastward.  Current
model solutions continue show strong boundary layer heating across
the Mid-South and into the TN Valley.  Model soundings do show
steepening low-mid level lapse rates atop the stronger boundary
layer heating.  Mid-level flow is likely to increase as the mid-
level jet rotates into the Mid-South and into the Ohio Valley.

While the overall setup up favors the potential for severe weather,
uncertainty remains on how much instability will be seen across the
region.  Current model data remains suggestive that extensive cloud
cover may remain in place across the Ohio Valley, with more
substantial insolation taking place to our south.  Based on this, I
would classify the Tuesday severe weather threat as conditional at
the moment.  Should we have more clearing that anticipated, the
overall synoptic and thermal/kinematic environmental parameters would
be supportive of multi-cell and supercell type storms offering all
types of severe threats.  Highs Tuesday will be dependent on cloud
cover with readings ranging from the upper 70s to the lower-middle
80s.  Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s/lower 60s.

The upper trough axis is forecast to weaken a bit and slide eastward
on Wednesday with a surface cold front settling south of the region.
While this will end the threat of severe weather, a cool northwest
flow with embedded perturbations will likely keep cool/showery
weather across our region for Wednesday and Thursday.  Highs during
the period will average in the upper 60s to the lower 70s with
overnight lows in the mid-upper 40s.

By Friday, we`ll see a continuation of the upper trough axis
centered over the northeastern US with a continued northwest flow
regime over the Ohio Valley.  Heights will gradually build Friday
and into Saturday.  Overall, the pattern here argues for drier
conditions, but the northwest flow will keep temperatures on the
cool side.  Highs on Friday look to warm into the upper 60s to near
70, with highs on Saturday reaching the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1251 PM EDT Sun May 18 2025

VFR conditions are expected across the region this afternoon through
much of tonight.  Generally a light westerly breeze will be seen
across the region this afternoon.  Widespread high clouds will
continue to build across the region from the west, but will not have
any impact on aviation.  Toward dawn Monday, a warm frontal boundary
will approach from the west.  Isentropic lift ahead of the front
will likely push a batch of showers into western KY by dawn along
with MVFR cigs. Look for southeasterly winds at the terminals for
Monday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......MJ
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION.....MJ