Murray, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

603
FXUS63 KPAH 070618
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1218 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A line of thunderstorms is on track to move east through the
  region this morning between 5AM to 12PM. A few storms may
  become strong to severe, with damaging wind gusts and a
  isolated tornado being the main risk. Between a half to one
  inch of rainfall is expected.

- Intervals of numerous showers and thunderstorms will move
  through Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday afternoon. The
  highest risk of widespread rain is Wednesday morning into
  Wednesday afternoon with a 70 to 80% chance of exceeding one
  inch. Heavy rain, flash flooding, and severe thunderstorms
  are all possible.

- Well above normal temperatures return to more seasonable
  during the latter half of the week. Quiet but breezy weather
  conditions are expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1218 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

A line of thunderstorms associated with a MCS will continue to grow
upscale this morning over Missouri before impacting the FA between
11 to 18z. Sfc low pressure continues to deepen over the Great
Lakes region and is allowing for an influx of moisture ahead of
a trailing cold front. MLCAPE is initially progged to be 800 to
1200 J/kg when convection arrives from the west with pockets of
300 to 600 J/kg of SBCAPE. Lapse rates will also be around 6.5
C/km with 35 to 45 kts of effective bulk shear along with 200 to
250 m2/s2 of 0-3 km SRH. Compared to yesterday, there is
slightly better instability and steeper lapse rates that may be
enough to fuel storms a bit longer.

The CAMs are in agreement that the line of storms will outrun the
better lift associated with the right entrance region of a 140 kt
jet max at 250 mb near STL. Better height falls will also be
occurring to the west with a 500 mb trough located over the central
Plains. While this would favor a weakening storm mode as convection
pushes east across the Mississippi, the parameters are high
enough to support a low end severe weather risk. Damaging wind
gusts remains the greatest concern with storms, but the latest
HRRR that has been consistent shows storms remaining more sfc
based with 30 kts of sfc-1km shear that would pose an isolated
tornado risk as well.

After the initial line moves through, stratiform rain will continue
for a few hours into the afternoon with rumbles of thunder.
Given PWAT`s around 1.25 to 1.50 inches, heavy downpours may
lead to some minor flooding issues with ponding on roadways.
Between a half to one inch of rainfall is progged for most of
the FA. Fropa with the cold front eventually occurs Saturday
evening that will allow for more tranquil and cooler conditions
on Sunday.

The flow aloft turns more zonal to start off the new week
allowing for temperatures to quickly rebound with highs
potentially nearing 80 degrees again on Tuesday. While WAA
thundershowers may begin to develop late Monday into Monday
night, the main risk of numerous showers and thunderstorms does
not impact the FA until Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday
afternoon when a 500 mb cutoff low ejects northeast into the
southern Plains and interacts with northern stream energy
digging across the Plains.

While Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night has been the focus
for some severe weather potential contingent on destabilization
with a discrete storm mode, some of the ML guidance continues to
suggest better instability and moisture may overlap on Wednesday.
Both the GFS/ECMWF show a line of storms plowing through ahead
of a cold front. Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon will
also pose the greatest risk of heavy rainfall with a 70 to 80%
chance of exceeding one inch. Overall, heavy rain, flash
flooding, and severe thunderstorms will all be possible. For the
latter half of the week, quiet but breezy conditions are
expected with temperatures returning to more seasonable.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1146 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Not much change from previous thinking other than to delay the
arrival of the convection an hour or so at most locations. There
is a better signal for gusty winds with the leading line,
especially at KPAH. Also, there is a better signal for some
convection near the cold front, primarily at KPAH.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DRS