Madisonville, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

406
FXUS63 KPAH 142318
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
618 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms will be possible both Thursday and
  Friday. Larger uncertainty in coverage exits for Thursday with
  all hazards possible both days.

- On and off chances of showers and storms continue Saturday
  through Tuesday.

- A significant increase in heat and humidity is on our
  doorstep.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

The region sits between two main upper level troughs, one across
the mid Atlantic, and the second one moving across the Rockies
which will be our next major weather player. Morning observed
RAOBS to our south sampled a strong EML and this EML advected
northward will likely suppress any convection. There could be
just enough convergence for a couple of isolated showers through
the afternoon though. The aformentioned upper trough out west
will move into the plains on Thursday with a very deep surface
low centered underneath it. Synoptic scale lift still looks
modest for much of the Quad State with increasing heights and
the jet stream well to our north. Strong low level warm
advection will be in place with a stout cap likely limiting most
convection. There are various solutions to development Thursday
afternoon. Most recently there has been an increasing signal in
the HREF for isolated development in the afternoon likely tied
to the frontal convergence. With the neutral jet support we
have, it will be up to this frontal forcing to get these parcels
going. Still think coverage will be isolated should we see
something. The environment looks primed to support severe
weather though with impressive instability with CAPE of
3000-4000 J/Kg and effective shear near 50 knots. All hazards
would be expected should anything develop with damaging winds,
large hail, and tornadoes.

Friday is looking increasingly concerning. An upper low will be
centered around Minnesota and Wisconsin toward Friday afternoon
with a modest perturbation rotating around the base of this
parent low. This perturbation will be impinging on the region by
21-03Z inducing some surface pressure falls across the frontal
zone that will be located across the Mississippi Valley
northward to the western Great Lakes. A fairly broad 100-120
knot upper level jet will be located across the region
supporting broad upper level ascent. There are some differences
on the exact location of the jet core which is to be expected
given the weak upper level feature nosing in from the west.
There does seem to be some agreement that a coupled jet
structure may be present somewhere across the Ohio Valley which
could favor some enhanced lift in the immediate area late in the
afternoon to evening hours.

Broad 30-40 knots of low level flow will be present on Friday
continuing to advect a warm and moist airmass across the region.
Most guidance supports an environment characterized by CAPE values
in excess of 3000 J/kg overlaid by effective bulk shear between 40-
50 kts. This environment would be supportive of intense and
long lived updrafts. Uncertainty regarding actual jet placement,
other subtle perturbations in upper level flow, and potential for
morning rain all complicate this forecast. While actual convective
mode is somewhat uncertain at the moment, the environment is
supportive of severe weather with all hazards possible including
large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.

A front clears behind this activity before moisture return,
troughiness and generally unsettled weather resumes. We may
have to watch for additional strong to severe storms early next
week but there is plenty of time to watch how this progresses.
Slightly cooler temperatures expected with highs in the upper
70`s to lower 80`s next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 613 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Mid cloud lifting north across the region this evening is
expected to SCT out through the night, giving way to increasing
high cloud on Thursday. Can`t rule out some isolated convection
at northern terminals this evening, but chances are quite low.
Light southeasterly winds tonight will turn southerly and
increase tomorrow morning, with gusts in excess of 20 kts
through the day.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...SP