Lexington, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

227
FXUS63 KLMK 061053
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
653 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm late this afternoon
   into early evening along and east of Interstate 75.

*  Dry weather and below normal temperatures much of next week.
   Some frost may occur in the sheltered valley locations Tuesday
   and Wednesday mornings.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

One more day of warm temperatures expected for today, but a change
in our daily temperatures will soon be here. Upper ridge axis is
shifting eastward, making room for a large upper low to track across
southern Ontario and just north of the Great Lakes. This upper low
will help drive a sfc cold front through our area later today.

This cold front is pushing across the Midwest this morning, with obs
showing much cooler and drier air behind it. We`ll likely see the
frontal boundary approach the Ohio River by the late afternoon.
However, this front will struggle to find any deep moisture this far
south and west, and the better moisture will align with the forcing
well to our northeast. This is highlighted well with the SPC
Convective Outlook, which keeps just a part of the Bluegrass (the I-
75 corridor) in a general thunder risk for today. Can`t rule out
some isolated showers during the late afternoon and evening near I-
75, and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder, but the majority of the
area will remain dry today. Temps will have enough time to warm into
the 80s, with breezy SSW winds this afternoon as the pressure
gradient tightens ahead of FROPA.

By tonight, our entire area will be in the wake of the front as it
continues to slide south and east. In the wake, steady CAA NNW flow
will take over, allowing for drier and cooler air to filter in.
Morning lows are expected to drop into the 40s for most locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Monday through Wednesday Night...

Upper ridge is forecast to be in place across the inter-mountain
west with a cool northwest flow across the Ohio Valley.  Mostly
sunny skies are expected for Monday with highs in the upper 60s east
of I-65 and some upper 60s to around 70 over in areas west of I-65.
Skies look to be mainly clear Monday night with a light northerly
wind.  This will allow temps to fall into the lower 40s in many
areas.  The typical cold spots that have good radiational cooling
along with the valley locations probably will see temps drop into 36-
39 degree range with some patchy frost.

Deep northwest flow will continue on Tuesday with high pressure
maintaining control of our weather.  Temperatures will continue to
run below normal here with highs east of I-65 in the upper 60s once
again and upper 60s/lower 70s west of I-65.  Tuesday night and
Wednesday morning will likely see temps drop back into the lower-mid
40s with the typical cool spots and valleys getting back into the
mid-upper 30s with another threat of patchy frost.  Heights will
build on Wednesday and we`ll see highs warm into the 69-74 degree
range in the afternoon with overnight lows dipping back into the mid
40s Wednesday night.

Thursday through Saturday...

Mid-level ridging will continue to build across the region for the
last part of the work week.  High pressure center will be a bit to
our east which will allow surface winds to become more southerly
with time and no precipitation is expected. Highs Thursday will be
in 69-74 degree range again with overnight lows in the 40s.  Highs
Friday look to warm into the 70-75 degree range with overnight lows
back in the 40s. Highs should moderate a bit on Saturday with
readings in the 72-77 degree range.

Extended Forecast Discussion...

Looking beyond the weekend, dry weather is likely to continue on
Sunday.  A cold front looks to push through the region late Sunday
and early Monday.  Not overly sure how much moisture we`ll have to
work with, but this may bring us some chance of rain as this feature
moves through.  After that, another period of dry weather is
expected.  Temperatures through the period look to run near seasonal
normals in our eastern forecast area, but may run a little above
normal across the western areas.

Recently completed signal analysis shows an emerging signal around
mid-month or so.  It`s roughly centered in the 10/16-10/20 range.
The signal is not overly strong and even the dynamical models have
had trouble tracking it from run to run.  The overall wave pattern
analysis continues to show a ridge west, trough east type pattern
lingering through at least mid-month which will likely keep the Gulf
and SW Atlantic active with tropical systems.  This scenario has
good support from last week`s JMA extended model runs.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 651 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, though sfc winds
will be the main challenge with this forecast issuance. Southwest
flow this morning will become more westerly by the afternoon, and
breezy at times. Gusts should remain around or under 20kts. By this
evening, a cold front will be sweeping through the region, which
will result in our winds becoming more north-northwest for tonight.
All terminals should remain dry, but an isolated shower will be
possible for RGA (and maybe LEX too) late afternoon or early evening
with the cold front. Expected coverage is not enough to warrant
mention in the TAF at this time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CJP