Lawrenceburg, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

786
FXUS63 KLMK 030513
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
113 AM EDT Sat May 3 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Severe storms are expected this afternoon into the early evening
   hours, with gusty winds and hail being the primary hazards.

*  Unsettled weather continues into the weekend, with showers and
   thunderstorms expected again on Saturday. An isolated severe
   storm will be possible in the Lake Cumberland region, but
   elsewhere severe storms are not expected.

*  Showers should become more widely scattered on Sunday afternoon,
   and the chance for storms will be much lower.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 113 AM EDT Sat May 3 2025

Main line has cleared most of the region, save for a few Bluegrass
counties. Cancelled the watch for a majority of the region. Have
some additional rains upstream, but no longer expected a severe
threat this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

A couple rounds of storms will cross the region late this afternoon
and early this evening in a diurnally destabilized atmosphere ahead
of a subtle 5H disturbance crossing the mid-Mississippi Valley.
These storms, especially with the first wave, will continue to be
capable of strong gusty winds and severe hail as they move through.

Showers and non-severe storms will continue into tonight as low
pressure rides up a stationary front stretched from the upper Ohio
Valley to the central Gulf coast.

On Saturday the surface low will drift very slowly across central
and eastern Kentucky as a Midwestern 500mb shortwave trough begins
to tighten into an upper circulation over the lower Ohio Valley by
evening. This will result in continued showers and thunderstorms,
though a lack of significant instability will keep convection sub-
severe.

Convergence along the surface baroclinic zone may result in a
corridor of enhanced rainfall amounts tomorrow from the Bowling
Green region northeastward towards Cincinnati. This is reflected in
WPC QPF and ECMWF EFI data. Currently it looks like rainfall amounts
around 1 to 1.50 inches will be possible in this corridor. These
amounts are well below flash flood guidance, but training along this
stripe of heavier rain could lead to minor water issues in a few
spots that collect water easily.

The clouds and rain will suppress temperatures tomorrow, with
afternoon highs in the 60s...five to ten degrees below normal. Went
on the cool side of guidance.

And with that, after 33 years in the National Weather Service,
having written thousands of forecast discussions, this is my final
AFD. From Garden City, KS (GCK), to Columbia, MO (COU), to Fort
Wayne, Indiana (FWA), to Northern Indiana (IWX), and, finally, here
at Louisville for the past 20 years, I have been truly fortunate to
have worked alongside so many talented, intelligent, kind people.
I`ve loved weather since I was 4 years old, fascinated by the
flashing lightning, roaring thunder, and sheets of rain as powerful
Midwestern thunderstorms moved through my town. Growing up I kept
weather journals, got weather calendars every year for Christmas,
and received my first NOAA Weather Radio at the age of 11. I
volunteered for my local NWS office, went to school, and got my
degree. Serving the American people day and night by providing
valuable forecast and storm information has been an incredible
honor. As a kid it was my dream to someday work for the National
Weather Service, and my dream came true. If you have a dream, don`t
give up. Work hard, persevere, and go for it.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

Saturday Night through Monday...

A weak low pressure system will continue to move through the Lower
OH Valley in the long term. The parent trough over the region
eventually develops a closed low aloft. These features will allow
moisture and precip to wrap around the low pressure while slowly
moving off to the northeast. This will keep PoPs over southern
Indiana and Kentucky through most of the weekend. However, while the
low wraps up, there will be a dry slot over central Kentucky, where
precip will likely hold off from Saturday night through Sunday early
afternoon. Sunday afternoon and evening, showers will wrap around
and become scattered to mostly scattered over the region.

With the trough overhead, skies will be mostly overcast through the
weekend and temperatures will be below normal in the mid 60s for
highs and low 50s for lows.

Monday Night through Tuesday...

The upper low will begin to push off to the northeast Monday night,
slowly bringing shower chances with it. PoPs will taper off Monday
night. A weak, brief surface high pressure will move over the region
on Tuesday, helping to keep conditions dry. Temperatures will return
to near normal.

Mid-to-Late Next Week...

Recent runs of medium-range guidance are fairly consistent with the
large scale features during the second half of next week, with
another closed upper low expected to meander from the southwest U.S.
into the central Plains. On the east side of this system, moisture
will begin to increase into the region from the SW by next
Wednesday. How much moisture makes it into the Ohio Valley will be
dependent on how far east the closed low makes it, and it is still
possible that the upper high could keep the richer moisture to the
SW. If the higher sfc dewpoints and PW values make it into the area,
we would return to an unsettled pattern with daily afternoon and
evening shower/storm chances. Given a lack of strong mid-/upper-
flow, any storms should be of the garden variety, with limited
severe impacts. Temperatures are currently expected to be fairly
spring-like mid-to-late next week, with highs in the mid-to-upper
70s and lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 113 AM EDT Sat May 3 2025

Fairly messy forecast over the next 24-36 hours as low pressure
hangs up over the area.  Main weather we`ll see here is showers with
low cigs.  Cigs look to range from MVFR down into the IFR range.
Best chances of showers look to be during the day with some daytime
heating.  Winds will be light/variable as well given the close
proximity of the upper level low.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......RJS
SHORT TERM...13 (Reaugh)
LONG TERM....SRW
AVIATION.....MJ