Jeffersontown, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

493
FXUS63 KLMK 210643
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
Issued by National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
243 AM EDT Wed May 21 2025

.Key Messages...

* Well below normal temperatures are expected late week into the
  first part of Memorial Day weekend.

* Showers and storms are likely to return for the second half of
  the holiday weekend and into early next week. 1 to 3 inches of
  rain could fall during that time.

&&

Short Term (Today  Tonight)

A few lingering showers across our NE early this morning, but
otherwise a much quieter stretch of weather in store. Well keep
lingering showers just off to the NE of our CWA today where the
slightly deeper low level moisture will reside closer to the low
center. Perhaps a few sprinkles could squeeze out given just
enough moisture in the 1000-800 mb ranger combined with steepening
low level lapse rates. Still, not expecting enough to mention any
measurable pops. The most extensive stratocu deck associated with
this wave later today will be across our NE CWA, with our SW CWA
seeing much more sunshine. As a result, should at least see some
temp gradient with best chance at mid and upper 70s across the SW,
and temps struggling to around 70 across our NE.

Any daytime showers should diminish by tonight with the loss of
heating and the resulting loss of the low-level lapse rates. Look
for a quiet overnight with temps expected to fall into the low to
mid 50s for most.

Long Term (Thursday  Tuesday)

Closed low will continue to spin over the Great Lakes region on
Thursday, before wobbling toward New England by Friday.
Atmospheric profiles still show some lingering low-level moisture
(1000-800mb), especially across our NE CWA, where perhaps some
steepening low-level lapse rates in the afternoon could squeeze
out a few showers. Overall, fairly optimistic for a mostly dry
forecast but may have to carry at least some low chance pops
across our NE CWA. Were dry by Friday as the low moves into New
England and loses influence over our area. Aloft, well see
unremarkable NW flow aloft which also supports the dry forecast.

Temperatures will struggle toward the end of the work week and
into the first part of the weekend. Thursday and Friday will be
the coolest days with highs mostly in the mid and upper 60s. Our
SW CWA has the best chance to see the low 70s, meanwhile our NE
CWA stays confined to the low to mid 60s. These values will be
around 10-15 degrees below normal for this time of year. Do expect
to see a small recovery in temps by Saturday, but still expect
only mid 60s to low 70s from NE to SW across the area. Overnight
lows on Friday and Saturday morning will also be notably chilly
with values mostly in the low and mid-40s. Record lows for LEX are
in the upper 30s for that stretch, so well likely stay a bit too
mild for any record lows, but not too far off.

Dry conditions continue through Saturday as upper ridging begins
to build into the area and then peaks on Sunday. Well have to
continue to carry some shower and storm chances returning by
Sunday as a warm front sets up over our area, and a central Plains
surface low begins to eject out. These shower and storm chances
will likely continue through the Memorial Day holiday as the
surface low then moves through or very near our area. Sometimes
this can be a concerning pattern setup, but at the moment, it
appears that this system will be lacking instability so think
severe chances are low at this time. Well continue to monitor
trends though as a triple point in May can cause problems even
with small amounts of instability. Temps are expected to still be
a little below normal, especially given the increased precip
chances, but will be more seasonable more solidly into the 70s.

&&

.Aviation.../06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Wed May 21 2025

Impacts:

- Mainly VFR Conditions this TAF Period.
- Brief MVFR/IFR Fog/Cigs possible near daybreak.

Discussion:

Cyclonic flow remains in place across southern Indiana and Central
KY due to broad low pressure over Indiana and Ohio. GOES16 shows
mostly clear skies across much of KY and a decaying area of
convection near HNB. This convection is expected to continue to
dissipate as best forcing has moved eastward.

Some VFR clouds were still found upstream of the TAF sites.
Overnight, residual moisture from today/s rain may result in some
diurnal MVFR/IFR Fog. This will dissipate as heating resumes after
sunrise. Some stratocu development will be possible this afternoon
with VFR cigs as cyclonic flow and cold air advection is in play.
This will be likely at the TAf sites expect at BWG, which may be a
bit to distant from that flow. Forecast soundings hint at this
showing some VFR Saturation within the lower levels today with an
inversion aloft. The CU clouds are expected to dissipate as heating
is lost this evening and VFR will continue.



&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM....BJS
AVIATION...JP