Florence, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

282
FXUS61 KILN 040550
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1250 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure shifts south of the Ohio Valley overnight before low
pressure takes over for the end of the week. Wednesday will feature
a brief warm up followed by a strong cold front Wednesday night with
the chance for snow showers. Cold conditions persist through
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Temperatures have dropped into the lower 20s to upper teens
across the region. WAA overnight will allow for temperature to
start to rise slightly later during the overnight hours. While
cannot rule out some light precipitation at the end of the near
term, the probability is too low to include in the forecast at
this time. Winds will start to increase overnight as well,
however most of the wind gusts will hold off until the very end
of the near term.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A strong low pressure system progresses southeast just to north of
the Great Lakes on Wednesday into Wednesday night. The pressure
gradient around the low will lead to gusty winds across the Ohio
Valley throughout the period. For the daytime hours on Wednesday,
strong southwesterly flow will help advect in warmer air leading to
highs spiking into the lower to middle 40s for most locations. Mixed
precipitation chances for rain and snow cannot be ruled out during
the day.

After 6pm, a strong cold front is forecast to quickly progress
through the Ohio Valley bringing potentially impactful weather.
Temperatures drop below freezing behind the front and gusty winds
shift to the west/northwest. At least some snow shower coverage is
expected behind the front. A few snow showers could be locally heavy
since there is some indication for saturation into the DGZ,
steep low level lapse rates, and the temperatures will be
dropping. Limiting factors for snow shower intensity are lack
of deep moisture through the DGZ, modest forcing in the DGZ,
and the strongest PV anomaly (forcing) remaining north of I-70.
Given possible snow showers, there is also the chance for some
local accumulations that could impact local travel at times. Regardless
of snow shower potential, temperatures are forecast to drop
into the teens by Thursday morning and winds will result in wind
chills near 0.

Cold and windy conditions remain in place on Thursday as the
aforementioned deep surface low continues moving east. Forecast
highs only rise into the 20s and forecast wind chills remain in the
teens most of the day. Depending on the exact wind direction in
relation the Great Lakes, some enhanced cloud cover and potential
snow showers are possible along and north of I-70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Below normal temperatures are expected into at least the first part
of the weekend as high pressure of Canadian origin traverses east
across the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley. Highs in the upper 20s
to the lower 30s on Friday will climb into the upper 30s to the
lower 40s by Saturday. Lows Thursday night and Friday night will be
mainly in the teens.

By Sunday, mid level ridging and return flow/backing winds aloft
will push temperatures to near or a little bit above normal.
Moisture will be returning as well as s/wv energy in the southwest
flow aloft ejects northeast into our area. Clouds will increase and
there may be a low chance of rain southwest late in the day. After
lows in the upper 20s to the lower 30s, highs will warm into the
upper 40s to the lower 50s.

A wetter, mild period is anticipated by early next week as a digging
mid level trough interacts with moisture, bringing higher chances
for rain into the region. Highs in the lower to mid 50s will cool
slightly on Tuesday as a frontal boundary enters in from the west.
Lows will mainly be in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Latest satellite data reveals a ~1500 ft stratus deck moving
northward through much of Indiana. This may cause a brief period
of MVFR at CVG and DAY through the initial TAF period, but
confidence was too low to go prevailing. Winds are starting to
respond to the incoming low pressure, with winds steady around
10 knots. Wind direction is generally out of the southwest, but
more southerly at CMH/LCK.

No major adjustments to wind gusts for after 12Z, with gusts
increasing and becoming more frequent throughout the afternoon.
Expect wind gusts in excess of 30 knots. Wind gusts will
briefly become more isolated and less in the evening. There will
be the potential for some rain showers or a mix of rain and
snow showers.

As a cold front approaches and moves through snow showers will
occur at the TAFs from 03-06Z. There is some potential for a
brief period of LIFR VIS depending on the intensity of the
showers/squalls. These details likely won`t appear in the TAF
until confidence in timing has increased. For now, the general
idea is that between 03-06Z, banded snow showers will likely
drop visibility quite quickly for ~30 minutes or so. Then,
visibility restrictions will quickly improve.

As the front moves through, wind gusts will ramp back up to over
30 knots with winds becoming more west-northwesterly behind the
front. Winds gradually decrease toward 12Z Thursday.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible late Sunday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...McGinnis