Ashland, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

567
FXUS61 KRLX 201530
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1130 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front crosses south this afternoon and evening through
Monday morning. There is a chance for strong to severe storms
and flash flooding today.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1127 AM Sunday...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon and
overnight as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Models
expect the front to slice through West Virginia between 00Z and 12Z
Monday. In addition to sufficient CAPE (1,000+ J/kg expected between
18Z-00Z), shear will also be enough to support organized convection
(30-35 kts of 0-6 km shear). Therefore, severe thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon and this evening. Vertical wind profiles
show that the most likely hazard of any thunderstorms today will be
damaging straight-line wind gusts. Wet bulb zero heights
(around 14,000 feet) are too high to support severe hail
reaching the ground. In addition, SFC-1km SRH (30 m2/s2) is too
low to support the development of tornadoes.

Flash flooding will be one of the primary hazards today, especially
given the saturated ground areawide. Precipitable Water (PWAT)
values are over 2 inches across most places today, so heavy
downpours will be likely with anything that develops. If multiple
heavy thunderstorms move over the same areas within a short period
of time, be vigilant of flash flooding.

Convection Allowing Models (CAMs) are a bit inconsistent
regarding the exact timing of convection today, but they
generally show that convection will increase areawide between 5
PM and 10 PM this evening as the front approaches. There may
also be another round of heavier rain overnight as another
shortwave approaches from the west.

The front will be located over the southern coalfields Monday. Dry
air will funnel in north of the front, across northern West Virginia
and southeast Ohio, bringing largely dry conditions for the day.
Meanwhile, PWATs will remain elevated across the southern coalfields
(1.80-2.20 inches), and that is where the heavy rain potential will
be located Monday.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1127 AM Sunday...

High pressure will control the weather across the mid-Atlantic
states Tuesday through and Wednesday. Tuesday will be comfortably
warm across the area with highs generally in the 80s. However, the
heat will gradually build Wednesday, with temperatures reaching the
90s once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1127 AM Sunday...

The heat will keep building Thursday with heat index values
reaching the lower 100s by Thursday afternoon. Unsettled weather
will return Friday and into next weekend as high pressure
retreats to the southeast Atlantic coastline and another front
approaches from the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 620 AM Sunday...

Satellite imagery and METARs show MVFR ceilings under low
stratus affecting most terminals early this morning. Expect
these clouds to gradually lift or dissipate by 13-15Z, into VFR
conditions. However, convection is expected to develop once
again under a summer juicy and unstable environment. In
addition, a cold front approaches from the north this afternoon
or evening to interact with the unstable atmosphere. Scattered
to numerous showers and storms may develop under west to
northwest flow aloft. This pattern could produce strong to
severe thunderstorms with damaging winds being the main threat.
Expect brief periods of IFR/LIFR conditions under heavier
showers or storms Sunday afternoon and evening. Coded TEMPO and
PROB30 groups to time thunderstorms. Strong convection may
continue this evening depending on the position of the cold
front.

Light west southwest winds early on Sunday will veer to west
northwest by this afternoon. Strong to damaging winds will be
possible nearby stronger thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon/evening could vary from the
forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through Monday morning for WVZ005>009-013>017-
     024>026.
OH...Flood Watch through Monday morning for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Flood Watch through Monday morning for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...ARJ