Winfield, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

478
FXUS63 KICT 191731
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1231 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms continue this morning; mainly north of
  Highway 400

- A few storms possible this evening and tonight across central KS

- Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect today through
  Wednesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

As of 330 AM Saturday, isolated showers and storms were ongoing for
areas mainly north of Highway 400. This zone is on the nose of a 30-
35 kt LLJ. Elevated instability is generally in the 500-1000 J/kg
range with effective shear values less than 25 kt. As such, severe
weather is not anticipated this morning. As the LLJ weakens through
8-9 AM, shower and storm coverage will greatly diminish as well.

Transitioning into this afternoon, a hot and humid airmass will
overspread the region with daytime highs in the 90s to low 100s.
Factoring in dew points in the mid to upper 60s will create heat
indices near 105 this afternoon. An Excessive Heat Warning goes into
effect this afternoon for the dangerous heat expected.

By this evening, a frontal zone will sag into northern KS. Upslope
low-level flow across eastern CO and convergence on the front should
result in storm development during the afternoon. Eventual upscale
growth is expected with propagation to the east and southeast. While
this complex may reach central KS late Saturday night/Sunday
morning, increasing inhibition towards the I-135 corridor should
limit further east propagation. Any storm that does enter
central KS will have a damaging wind potential with DCAPE values
approaching 1500 J/kg.

For Sunday and beyond, the midlevel ridge will amplify overhead with
the ridge axis setting up in the central/southern MS valley. A
stagnant airmass is expected with daytime highs in the upper
90s/near 100 degrees. Otherwise, the nocturnal LLJ is expected
across central/south-central KS each night and could result in
isolated storm development, especially towards sunrise each
morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the end
of the period. Southerly winds are forecast throughout the area
today, with gusts around 20 kts possible through sundown. LLWS is
expected areawide tonight beginning around/after 04Z and lasting
until 13Z at most sites, with predominantly-south winds anticipated
to pick back up toward the end of the period.

Showers and storms remain possible tonight into the morning hours on
Sunday, especially at central KS sites. At this time, confidence
remains low in direct site impacts and is higher in storm coverage
remaining north of RSL and SLN. However, variable winds arising from
storm outflow will be possible depending on the southward extent of
coverage. As such, VRB winds have been introduced at RSL and GBD
after 05Z to account for this possibility.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...JWK