Wichita, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

230
FXUS63 KICT 250343
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1043 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A stray thunderstorm possible late this afternoon and evening
  across central KS

- Shower and thunderstorms chances are forecast to increase
  Tuesday afternoon with periodic rounds of showers and storms
  lingering through next weekend.

- More seasonable temperatures are anticipated next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 740 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

We removed isolated chances of showers/storms for central Kansas
this evening. The low levels were beginning to stabilize with
loss of daytime heating.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

As of 1 PM Sunday afternoon, quasi-zonal midlevel flow present
across the central and northern Plains. An area of surface high
pressure encompasses much of eastern KS into the MS Valley. This
area of high pressure was resulting in sunny skies and light winds
across much of the forecast area. A lee surface trough was gradually
deepening across the central and northern high Plains. This
continues to gradually tighten the surface pressure gradient across
portions of central and western KS where southerly winds are gusting
near 20 mph. The actual surface trough axis is positioned from south-
central SD through northwest KS. Weak convergence along the trough
axis this afternoon may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm
development. With this convection being diurnally driven, it`s
unlikely any convection reaches Russell or Barton counties this
afternoon or evening (10-15% chance for rain). Transitioning into
tonight, the aforementioned surface high pressure area will
remain across portions of south-central and southeast KS. Small
dew point depressions, light winds, and mostly clear skies may
result in patchy fog formations Monday morning.

A similar thunderstorm setup is expected Monday afternoon and
evening with diurnally driven convection possible along the trough
axis across western KS. The lack of large scale forcing for
ascent to propagate convection eastward should keep convection
across western KS. Rain chances will increase Tuesday afternoon
and evening as a weak perturbation propagates north from the
ArkLaTex region into eastern KS and western MO. PW values are
forecast to increase to 1.5- 1.75" across eastern KS. Weak
midlevel lapse rates of 5.5-6 C/km will limit instability values
to 500-1000 J/kg. Midlevel winds remain quite weak at 20 kt or
less, mitigating any threat for severe storms. This tropical-
like airmass will remain across the area through the remainder
of the week. Weak midlevel perturbations are progged by
GFS/ECMWF to slowly propagate across the region daily
(Wednesday through at least Saturday) with the strongest
shortwave trough Thursday into Friday. This should support daily
rain chances will the potential for widespread beneficial
rainfall. Midlevel ridging will amplify across southwest US by
Sunday with the midlevel flow becoming northwest across the
central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

VFR conditions will generally prevail over the next 24 hours;
however, a brief period of MVFR visibilities may occur across
southeast Kansas Monday morning. After sunrise, any fog that has
developed should mix out fairly quickly. Surface winds across
central and south-central Kansas should remain out of the south
and southeast at around 10 to 20 knots throughout the TAF
period. Meanwhile, winds across southeast Kansas will generally
remain light and variable.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CDJ
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...JC