Topeka, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

472
FXUS63 KTOP 121918
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
218 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated non-severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon,
 otherwise becoming dry across the region for much of the week.

- Temps continue to warm into the low and middle 90s,
  approaching 100 degrees in north central Kansas this weekend.
  Heat indices for the forecast area range from 100 to 105
  degrees during this period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Upper trough axis continues to rotate through eastern Kansas this
afternoon as the eastern ridge anchors over the southeast CONUS.
Weakening lift within the axis coupled with no low level inhibition
has allowed for isolated storms to impact portions of east central
Kansas the last 1-2 hours. Given the lack of wind shear in place and
around 2000 J/KG of Sfc CAPE, these storms are not expected to be
severe as they exit into MO by early evening.

Upper trough finally slides eastward this evening as heights build
back into the region, signaling dry conditions for the next several
days. Sfc pressure gradient tightens in central/western KS as
troughing develops in the high plains, increasing southerly winds
from 10 mph sustained Wednesday afternoon to 15-25 mph sustained
Thursday afternoon onward. This enhanced mixing area wide coupled
with warming overnight lows increases the likelihood for highs
reaching the 100 degree mark by Friday afternoon. Combined with
dewpoints mixing to near 70, max heat indices in the 100 to 105
degree range are looking more likely Friday-Sunday. Rain chances
continue to hold off until early next week as the upper ridge axis
is stronger and further north among the latest guidance. The upper
trough and cold front eventually make its way into the area next
week, increasing pops for the region Monday-Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

High end MVFR stratus exiting with the upper low this
afternoon, leading to VFR conditions under light winds, becoming
variable overnight.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Prieto