Topeka, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

102
FXUS63 KTOP 241105
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
505 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler weather is expected for the start of this week.

- There is a 20 to 30 percent chance for rain and snow Wednesday
  night into Thursday morning. Any snow looks to be light.

- Below normal temperatures set to stick around into next
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

At 08Z this morning southwesterly mid level flow was developing
across the Plains ahead of a broad trough over the Eastern Pacific
and pacific northwest. Associated high clouds were moving off to the
east early this morning. At the surface, a surface trough was
analyzed over northwest Kansas . A cold front was located further
north in northern Nebraska.

For today, the cold front is forecast to move southeast into north
central Kansas this morning, then gradually move southeast through
the day, reaching east central Kansas by early evening. Another day
of mild temperatures are expected with the warmest ahead of the
front in east central Kansas where highs will top out in the mid
60s. For areas north of the cold front, temperatures will be
slightly cooler with upper 50s expected.

A lead shortwave moving across the northern and central Plains
tonight and into monday will reinforce the cold air advection into
Kansas resulting in a prolonged period of cold air advection. This
will yield temperatures on Monday in the 40s. A transition to a west
northwest flow across the Plains on Tuesday becomes more zonal on
Wednesday as mod level waves move across the northern Plains and
the central Rockies respectively. Models are consistent with a
surface low developing in southeast Colorado on Tuesday then moving
southeast into southern Oklahoma and northern Texas. The track of
the low has varied between the deterministic and ensembles over the
past few days. Energy moving across the central and northern Plains
keeps much of the forcing for ascent to the north, but layer
frontogenetic forcing will bring a low probability (20-30%) chance
of precipitation to the area Wednesday. Models continue to decrease
precipitation potential across the area with the bulk of any
precipitation Wednesday night into Thanksgiving morning mainly south
and east of northeast Kansas. Ensembles continue to show a 10 to 30
percent probability of a half inch of snow or less Wednesday night.
Latest 00Z runs of the ECMWF, GFS and CMC suggest little to no
accumulation. Kansas State mesonet shows ground temperatures in the
40s, so any snow will likely melt. Bottom line is that there is a
small chance for rain and snow, but only minor or no travel impacts
are expected.

Friday night into Saturday energy moving southeast within
northwesterly flow aloft may bring some light snow to parts of the
central Plains. Models differ on the timing and placement of the
banded precipitation and the GFS is the most aggressive while the EC
and CMC keep any precipitation northeast of Kansas. Therefore will
continue a dry forecast for the weekend. Colder temperatures are
expected Friday through the weekend with highs in the 30s and lows
in the teens.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 505 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

A frontal boundary will move through the terminals this period.
Expect a shift to the west around 19Z at MHK and then at TOP and
FOE around 23Z, then becoming northwest around 10kts after 01Z.
Forecast soundings suggest the formation of mvfr cigs after 06Z
at all of the terminals. VSBYS remain VFR through the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...53