Spring Hill, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

907
FXUS63 KEAX 241104
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
504 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures expected today.

- A strong cold front moves through tonight with highs nearly
  20 degrees F cooler for Monday.

- Next chance for precipitation (30-50%) will be Wednesday into
  Wednesday night. Precipitation type is looking more likely to
  be rain however, wintry precipitation may be possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Early this morning, modest WAA and a broken to overcast high cirrus
deck is helping to keep temperatures mild for late November
standards. This should help temperatures start the day near normal
highs in the 40s. WAA should continue through most of the day today
allowing highs to push 15 to 20 degrees above normal into the upper
50s to upper 60s. This evening into tonight a cold front will move
through the area. Moisture will be lacking with system however,
there is a slight chance (10-20%) few light showers tonight across
the southeastern portion of the forecast area. Strong CAA is
expected behind this front tonight into Monday making for a much
cooler day on Monday with highs in the 40s. A surface ridge of high
pressure will then look to move through the area Monday night. Light
winds and clear skies will provide a good radiational cooling setup
which will bring the coldest night of the season thus far with lows
falling into the low to mid 20s. high pressure will slide east of
the area on Tuesday with modest late day WAA allow highs to rise
into the 40s.

Model difference still plague how the midweek system will unfold.
The GFS on Tuesday night depicts a weak upper level trough moving
through the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest this will not
have any affect on our sensible weather however it will force a cold
front through the CWA by early Wednesday. A second weak upper trough
then moves from the central Rockies through the region late
Wednesday into Wednesday night focusing the bulk of the
precipitation south of the CWA. The EC phases the two aforementioned
upper level trough together over the central Plains and then moving
it through the area Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night.
This solution would bring the better chance for precipitation.
However, even in this scenario rain looks to be the most likely p-
type as cold air lags behind the cold front. However, a rain to snow
transition could not be ruled with very minor accumulations possible
across northern Missouri. The most likely period for precipitation
would be from Wednesday into Wednesday night (30-50%) before exiting
in time for Thanksgiving Day. Highs Wednesday will be in the lower
40s to lower 50s with a much cooler day expected Thanksgiving Day
behind the front with highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s. A surface
ridge of high pressure will move into the area Thanksgiving night
with the first teens of the season expected as lows will drop into
the mid to upper teens. High pressure will continue to dominate
Friday keeping temperatures well below normal with highs in the
upper 20s to upper 30s. Saturday, a weak upper level trough will
move through the Upper Midwest forcing a cold front through the
area. This will bring a cold and blustery day for Saturday with
highs in the upper 20s to upper 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 504 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

VFR conds will sct high clouds are expected thru 19Z-21Z aft
which sct-bkn clouds btn 3-4kft with a bkn-ovc high cirrus deck are
fcst. Models suggest that MVFR cigs mov into the TAF sites late
in the pd aft 07Z-08Z. Winds to begin the TAF pd will be out of
the south btn 10-15kts with ocnl gusts to 20-25kts poss. Aft
19Z-21Z winds will veer to the SW and relax to around 10kts as a
cold font approaches. Winds will shift to the NW around 10kts
aft 23Z-01Z behind the cold front. Aft 07Z-08Z...winds will
become NNW and increase to around 15kts with gusts to 20-25kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73