Shawnee, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

879
FXUS63 KEAX 121959
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
259 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ongoing isolated to scattered storms east of I-35 this
  afternoon. Severe weather not expected.

- Temperatures will warm for the second half of this week with
  heat indices nearing heat advisory criteria on Friday and
  Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

A H700 shortwave moving through the flow has resulted in isolated to
scattered showers and storms this afternoon mainly to the east of I-
35. Mid to upper level ridging over the western Canadian Provinces
will slowly push a surface high through the Dakotas. Limited
instability (roughly 1,000-1,500 J/kg) and non-existent shear will
significantly reduce any severe threat with these storms. Storms
will likely fizzle out sometime late this evening as they track to
the east and diurnally weaken.

Skies will begin to clear out late this evening into the night
allowing temperatures to cool to the crossover temperature and the
surface high will keep winds calm into the early morning. Given this
environment, there will be a potential for some patchy fog early
tomorrow morning especially for areas that received precip today
(mainly east of I-35).

The surface high continues its track to the east as mid to upper
level ridging enters central Canada. In response, dry conditions are
anticipated for Wednesday and Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, the
surface high will have moved to the east of the area shifting winds
to the south. This will help to spark a warming trend that will
continue into the second half of this week. Highs for Thursday are
anticipated to range mostly in the 80s with some areas near central
MO in the low 90s. A H500 shortwave moving through the flow over
southern MN. However, left the forecast dry as showers and storms
are anticipated to remain farther north where there will be better
forcing.

Early Friday morning, a low-level jet will intensify and moisture
transport over central/eastern KS into southern MN. This, combined
with southerly flow could result in low-end chances for showers and
storms for the northwestern corner of our CWA (northwest of a line
from the KC Metro to Lamoni, IA). If storms are able to initiate in
KS and hold together long enough to make it to our area, no severe
is expected as the environment will be very unfavorable for severe
storms (stout cap, weak instability, and no shear). Again, for now,
left mention of PoPs out of the forecast due to low confidence that
storms will reach our CWA due to the unfavorable environment.

Friday afternoon, mid to upper level ridging moves over the area as
the H850 thermal ridge shifts east. This, along with the persistent
southerly winds will allow temperatures to continue to warm Friday
and Saturday. Heat indices for both days are anticipated to range
roughly from 100-105 degrees F give or take a  few degrees. We will
continue to monitor model trends to see if the issuance of heat
headlines will be necessary. There is some uncertainty with this
forecast due to potential morning convection which could hinder the
effects of diurnal heating (impeding heat advisory level
conditions).

Broad mid to upper level ridging remains prevalent in the southern
U.S. keeping us warm and dry through Sunday. A few shortwaves move
through the flow early next week that could bring chances (below
30%) for storms. Highs are anticipated to range in the mid 80s to
low 90s which is just a few degrees above seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

A few pockets of lingering MVFR ceilings are still present
near/around the terminals. Conditions are anticipated to
improve to VFR over the next few hours. Winds will remain calm-
light for the duration of the TAF period. There is a potential
for MVFR ceilings again tomorrow morning, however confidence is
low so just went with SCT030.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier