Newton, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

717
FXUS63 KICT 141749
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1249 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild and dry conditions expected this week

- An active weather pattern is likely to emerge this weekend,
  bringing multiple rain and severe storm chances to the area

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

As of 345 AM Wednesday morning, a midlevel ridge axis continues to
amplify across the central and southern Plains. Further west, a
western CONUS trough continues to dig across the Intermountain
West with cyclonic midlevel overspreading the central and
northern high Plains. A deepening surface trough axis extends
from northwest OK through northern MN. Ahead of this surface, a
strong low-level WAA pattern has emerged overnight with 850 mb
temperatures increasing nearly 5 C since Tuesday evening. As
boundary layer mixing ensues later this morning, temperatures
will quickly surge through the 80s and into the 90s across the
entire area.

An initial shortwave trough, currently digging across western NV,
will eject from eastern CO through northern KS and eastern NE late
tonight into Thursday morning. The shortwave trough track will
unfortunately keep the rain chances north of central and eastern KS.
By Thursday morning, a Pacific front/dryline will slide through the
area, shifting winds to the west and northwest.

Beyond Thursday, ensemble probabilities continue to increase for
measurable rainfall Saturday night through Monday night. To begin
with Saturday night into Sunday morning, a strong WAA pattern will
emerge with the nose a 30-40 kt LLJ developing from central KS into
south-central and southeast KS. Elevated instability up to 2000 J
/kg with modest acceleration of the wind profile from 1-6 km. This
will ultimately support a large hail threat late Saturday night into
Sunday morning. Broad WAA is likely to continue throughout the day
Sunday with shower and storm chances continuing into the afternoon.
Our eyes will focus to a sharpening dryline across portions of
central/western KS. Model guidance remains mixed with the prospects
of convective initiation Sunday afternoon/evening on the
dryline. Regardless, the conditional environment will be
favorable for severe weather and this needs to be monitored in
the coming days. The greatest potential for widespread severe
weather is expected to arrive Monday afternoon and evening. A
sharp dryline across portions of west-central KS may be the
focal point for convective initiation Monday afternoon/evening.
Again, the background environment is likely to become favorable
for severe weather. This is supported by increasing EPS and GEFS
probabilities for severe convection. Continue to check back for
forecast updates throughout the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours across central,
south-central, and southeast Kansas. Winds will be a tad breezy
out of the south-southeast areawide this afternoon. Tonight, a
cold front will progress east across the region, with gusty
west-northwest winds in its wake. Any thunderstorm activity this
afternoon through tonight should remain north of the region
across primarily Nebraska and perhaps extreme northern Kansas.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...ADK