Newton, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

493
FXUS63 KICT 111924
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
224 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm temperatures for both Saturday and Sunday
  with a cooler temps for the start of the work week.

- Very high fire danger on Saturday due to strong south winds.

- Potential for storm chances by the middle of next week;
  uncertainty remains high.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Currently, there is an upper level ridge over the Great Plains
traversing east with a trough over eastern CONUS, keeping
northwesterly flow until Saturday night. At the surface, high
pressure extends from the upper Mississippi Valley to the Southern
Plains. This will translate eastward later this evening shifting
winds to southerly by tonight. A shortwave is forecasted to reach
the Northern Rockies by Saturday afternoon, allowing the lee trough
to strengthen. Southerly winds are expected to increase with speeds
between 25-30 mph and gusts up to 45 mph with high temperatures well
above normal, ranging from low 90s in western Kansas to mid 70s in
eastern Kansas Saturday afternoon. These gusty winds and warm
temperatures will lead to very high grassland fire danger across
much of central and south-central Kansas Saturday afternoon. See
Fire Weather Discussion for more details.

The upper wave continues tracking east, making its way across the
Northern Plains Sunday afternoon. The surface low is expected to set
up over northern Kansas, and project east into the Middle
Mississippi Valley Sunday afternoon/evening. High temperatures
rising into the upper 80s and low 90s Sunday afternoon will be
supported by a fairly stout mid-level thermal ridge and
compressional warming ahead of the frontal boundary. This frontal
boundary pushing the region Sunday evening will bring temperatures
back into the 60s and 70s on Monday and Tuesday.

Transitioning into Wednesday, the ECMWF and Canadian have weak ridge
building with almost zonal flow going into Thursday. However, the
GFS consistently has a shortwave trough entering the Central Plains,
increasing chances for showers and storms for Wednesday. As a result
of this model disagreement, uncertainty remains high for storm
chances for middle of next week. High temperatures are on the rise
starting Wednesday and are expected to be above average through late
next week. Looking beyond the current forecast period, long range
global models signal a more active pattern across the Central
Plains. This will be something to monitor as we go through next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the end
of the period. Could temporarily see near-MFVR conditions through
20Z at RSL given fires in the area. Otherwise, northerly winds
will continue to become more southeasterly throughout this
afternoon. Current trends suggest these becoming stronger and
southerly after 12Z Saturday.

Additionally, LLWS at central KS sites is anticipated late
tonight into the early morning hours as the low-level jet picks
up. This is expected to weaken by mid-morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Very high grassland fire danger likely Saturday due to strong
south winds.

Strong south winds will overspread the area on Sat afternoon and
early evening as lee troughing strengthens. We are looking for
south winds sustained in the 25 to 30 mph range with gusts 40 to
45 mph. Lowest afternoon RH values are forecast to be in the 25
to 35% range. These conditions will bring very high grassland
fire danger to all of central and most of south central KS.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC/JC
AVIATION...JWK
FIRE WEATHER...RBL