Merriam, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

492
FXUS63 KEAX 250401
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1101 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Patchy fog possible again tonight
  - Mainly rural areas near and south of Missouri River

* Pleasant Memorial Day with mostly clear skies and highs in the low
  to mid 80s

* Unsettled weather conditions remain forecast as early as
  Tuesday and on through the work week if not into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

With surface high pressure influence parked over the area, very
pleasant conditions have and will continue to prevail today. Within
the CWA proper, hardly a cloud in the sky with light winds (under 10
mph) ranging in direction, dependent on your location in relation to
the surface high. Temperatures by early afternoon in the upper 70s
to low 80s, generally in line with forecast highs in the low 80s.
Icing on the cake being dew points in the 50s.

Memorial Day will see generally pleasant conditions continue across
the area. Surface high begins to depart eastward, but will continue
to exert some influence, along with mid-upper level ridging, to help
keep sensible weather quiet. Southerly winds do begin to return in a
more widespread manner, but unable to advect in any substantial
moisture (humidity) given surface high orientation and the general
air mass source region. Generally, the most notable difference from
today to Memorial day will be high temperatures a few/handful
degrees warmer, into the mid 80s for most, as warmer 850mb temps
nose in from the west. Enjoy the day if you are able!

The forecast Tuesday onward remains notably uncertain, but also low-
impact, given the broader setup. Deterministic synoptic guidance
remains in very good agreement of a sizable mid-upper low dropping
down the the West Coast through mid-week, concurrent with a long
wave trough to cutoff low digging into New England. This yields an
Omega Block look to the pattern with increasing ridge amplitude
through central CONUS. The main uncertainty locally is in how a weak
mid-upper level disturbance drifts northward through and out of the
Southern Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Deterministic
and ensemble guidance is a bit less excited (slower) on PoPs
Tuesday, potentially holding off any PoPs into southern parts of the
CWA until early Wednesday, which conceptually makes sense given the
existing dry air mass it will need to overcome to begin with.
Regardless, little consequence with showers to isolated non-severe
thunder at most. The gradual degradation of the initial mid-upper
level feature and a wave rounding the larger western CONUS low
carries varied depictions in guidance, but the general takeaway
through mid and late week will continue to be chances for showers
and isolated non-severe thunder. Aside from any precipitation,
temperatures will vary depending on how widespread cloud cover and
precipitation is. NBM has lowered temps a bit vs previous runs, but
remain reasonable in the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the forecast
period. Few to SCT clouds are expected just after sunrise to mid
morning. Winds remain generally out of the SE.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Pesel