McPherson, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

098
FXUS63 KICT 121730
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1230 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering hit-or-miss showers/storms today, and possibly
  again Wednesday. Severe storm and widespread heavy rain
  potential is low.

- Warming trend by mid-late week. Triple digit heat indices
  Thursday through at least early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...Hit-or-miss showers and thunderstorms
are expected today into this evening across central, south-
central, and southeast Kansas, in vicinity of a deep mid-upper
trough progressing slowly southeast across the region. Activity
will likely be most widespread this afternoon through early
evening coinciding with peak daytime heating. A combination of
modest to strong instability with weak deep layer shear should
preclude widespread severe storms, although isolated strong
downburst wind gusts are possible. Additionally, pockets of
heavy rainfall may support very localized minor flood concerns.
The same holds true for Wednesday afternoon, although activity
should be quite isolated given much weaker upper forcing.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...Mostly dry weather is expected
Wednesday/Thursday through Sunday, as upper ridging builds
slowly eastward over the region. As we head into Sunday night
and Monday, thunderstorm chances may enter back into the
forecast, as deterministic consensus progresses another cold
front south into Mid- America, and the upper ridge breaks down
some.

TEMPERATURES:

After another seasonably "cool" day, building upper ridging and
increasing southerly flow will support a warming trend back
into the 90s by mid-late week, and persisting through at least
early next week. Additionally, dewpoints in the 60s to low 70s
will support a return to triple digit heat indices for the same
time period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

VFR conditions are expected through much of the forecast period.
A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out across south-central
and southeast KS this afternoon but confidence is too low for
mention at this point. Patchy fog is possible at all sites
towards dawn Wednesday as light and variable winds continue with
mostly clear skies.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...BRF