McPherson, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

008
FXUS63 KICT 180008
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
708 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Turning cooler from northwest to southeast Friday, with cooler
below average temperatures persisting through the weekend.

- Periodic showers/thunderstorms Friday evening through Saturday
evening (highest chances southeast Kansas), expanding areawide later
Saturday night through Sunday. Flood Watch posted SE KS.

- Return to seasonable temperatures next week, with a return to
periodic thunderstorm chances Tuesday and beyond.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

A dryline is sharpening across central/south-central KS this
afternoon. Thinking this dryline *SHOULD* remain storm-free this
evening-tonight, given capping issues owing to marginal low-level
moisture, warm mid-level temperatures, modest dryline convergence,
and low-amplitude mid/upper ridging over the area. However, if by
chance the cap is able to break, a favorable shear profile would
support a supercell capable of large hail and damaging winds. This
is an extremely low chance, with a much higher chance for a storm-
free evening.

Otherwise, the strong cold front will begin slicing south across the
region later tonight, and continuing through Friday. Lift along this
front is expected to be too shallow to generate precipitation
through much of the day Friday. Temperatures will be much cooler in
wake of the front on breezy north winds.

By Friday late afternoon-evening, strengthening 850-700mb warm/moist
advection north of the surface front should support increasing
chances for scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms, mainly over
southeast Kansas. A sufficient combination of elevated instability
and effective deep layer shear should support a risk of marginally
severe hailers. In addition, the potential for training storms could
support locally very heavy rainfall amounts and increased flooding
concerns. This thunderstorm threat may reach as far northwest as
roughly the KS Turnpike corridor.

Periodic showers/thunderstorms should continue over mainly southeast
Kansas Saturday through Saturday evening, within a favorable zone of
deep frontal convergence underneath the right entrance region of a
strong upper jet. While severe weather appears unlikely, additional
rainfall on already saturated soils from Friday night storms will
only aggravate any ongoing flooding concerns. By later Saturday
night through Sunday, the powerful parent shortwave approaching from
the southwest is expected to expand rain/storm chances across the
entire area, allowing locations northwest of the KS Turnpike to
finally get in on the rain. The rain should end from southwest to
northeast late Sunday.

Given the potential for 2-4+ inches (locally higher) Friday night
through Sunday, hoisted a flood watch over far southeast Kansas.
Later shifts may need to expand the watch another row of counties
north-northwest.

Given the northerly flow and clouds/precipitation, well below
average temperatures mostly in the 50s are expected Saturday-Sunday.

As we head into next week, a warming trend is expected, along with a
return to periodic shower/thunderstorm chances from Tuesday and
beyond. Stay tuned as we continue to refine forecast details
regarding thunderstorm chances next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 702 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Strong southerly winds were impacting south central Kansas early
this evening with some gusts to 40 knots at times but winds are
expected to slowly subside and veer as we move through the
evening hours. Meanwhile, a developing LLJ will bring widespread
LLWS to the area tonight. A cold front will also be moving south
shifting winds to the northwest. This front is expected to
impact central KS in the 05-07Z timeframe while moving into
south central Kansas in the 10Z-13Z timeframe before slowing
down over the Flint Hills during the day on Friday. This front
will become a focus for showers and storms on Friday afternoon
over southeast Kansas possibly impacting KCNU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Very high to extreme grassfire danger will persist along and west of
the Flint Hills through the evening. Will continue to Red Flag
Warning west of I-135 through 9 PM.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-
047-048-050-067-082-091.
Flood Watch from Friday evening through Sunday evening for
KSZ093>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...TOP