Manhattan, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

120
FXUS63 KTOP 061147
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
647 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions and a north wind this afternoon could elevated fire
danger, but not expected to be hazardous.

- Slightly above average temperatures to continue for the next
  week with dry conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Taking a look at some synoptic features around the CONUS, a compact
upper low is shown pushing its way east across the northern Great
Lakes, weak zonal flow set up over much of the southern third of the
country, mid-level ridging building across the PNW and deepening
tropical low that continues to fester in the Gulf. Across Kansas, a
cold front has made its way through the area and beginning to advect
in a cooler and dry airmass from the north. For the remainder of the
day, expect surface high pressure to build in across the central
Plains, keeping winds out of the north and skies clear. Temperatures
by peak heating should feel much more pleasant this afternoon than
last, topping out in the upper 70s. Dewpoints during the afternoon
should dip into the 20s and 30s as a result of afternoon mixing and
dry air advection. This should push RH values into the teens and low
20 percent range creating some elevated fire danger concerns. That
said, the fire danger threat should not be hazardous with the lack
of strong and gusty winds, but a persistent 10-15 mph north wind
could make containing fires on the ground more of a hassle.
Outdoor burning should be avoided to mitigate fires getting out
of control.

Not many changes for the extended forecast with surface ridging
hanging around the area until Tuesday, keeping afternoon highs in
the upper 70s. After Tuesday, temperatures should creep back into
the mid to upper 80s as flow returns to the south and mid-level
heights increase. Chances for precipitation will also be hard to
come by as limited moisture and forcing mechanisms move across the
central Plains. With another extended period of dry weather and
vegetation continuing to dry out, will continue to monitor the risks
for elevated fire danger concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 646 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

VFR TAFs will continue at all sites through the period.
Winds increase out of the north late this morning, sustained between
10-12 knots before falling below 10 knots by sunset. The remainder
of the TAF will see clear skies and light winds slowly veering
towards the northeast.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 347 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Elevated fire danger is possible this afternoon for the entire
forecast area. Very dry air advecting into the area with the
surface ridge will plummet afternoon RH values into the 15-20
percent range. Winds will increase out of the north between
10-15 mph with occasional gusts to 20 mph. Since winds are not
near Red Flag criteria, not expecting too many glaring concerns
with large fire potential, but outdoor burning should be avoided
if possible.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Griesemer
FIRE WEATHER...Griesemer