Liberal, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

508
FXUS63 KDDC 112200
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

...Updated Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fire weather concerns are critical on Saturday and elevated
  for Sunday

- Temperatures warming to near 100 degrees for areas along the
  Colorado border on Saturday

- Minor chances of rain (~20%) in northern Kansas Sunday night
  and across southwest Kansas midweek

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Current RAP mesoanalysis shows significant ridging building and
moving over from off of the Rockies today. A weak surface high
pressure system is exiting the forecast area leaving calm weather
and clear skies in its` wake. Today will continue the dry stretch
for SW Kansas with highs forecasted in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
With no active headlines, fire weather risk is the most notable
aspect of the forecast over the coming days. Today, relative
humidities are expected to remain above 20% to mitigate fire
weather concerns as primarily southerly winds strengthen
somewhat through the day.

On Saturday, the fire weather risk ramps up significantly. The
SPC has much of SW Kansas in an elevated fire weather risk with
far SW Kansas in a critical fire weather day. Ensembles have
relative humidities as low as 7% along the KS/CO border. The
hold off from a fire weather headline is the winds, which will
be very borderline. Sustained winds are expected to be up to 20
mph with gusts up to 30 mph. The difficulty revolves around the
winds. When do the winds strengthen to the threshold, where is
the overlap of strong winds and low RHs, and how long do the
wind gusts maintain those speeds are all contributing to a
fairly uncertain forecast when it comes to the exact severity of
the fire weather concerns. Regardless of categories or
thresholds, fire weather impacts are expected and significant
fire weather precautions should be taken tomorrow especially in
far SW Kansas. Outside of the fire weather, temperatures are
forecast to be unseasonably warm with some areas out west at
over a 50% chance to reach 100 degrees Saturday from ensembles.

Sunday will see multiple cold fronts that will result in a cooler
day than on Saturday. This will help RH values move out of the
critical range for nearly all of SW Kansas. With the cold fronts,
multiple wind shifts are expected throughout the day with winds
ending up coming out of the north. The system has the potential to
bring light rain up around I-70 with ensembles placing rain chances
at around 20%. However, the rain showers are expected to be very
scattered with minimal accumulations. Into Monday, CAA will drop
highs further with ensembles having most of Kansas below 70 degrees.

Ensembles project a trough over the central CONUS by the middle of
the week. With it, multiple rounds of precipitation are possible
through the end of the week. No single day has a >25% chance for
rain via the ensembles and total QPF amounts through the weekend are
below 0.25" for all of SW Kansas. Uncertainty with the rain showers
will decrease into the weekend as the broader system is better
resolved.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

VFR/SKC will continue through this TAF period. South winds will
remain elevated through tonight, averaging 12-15 kts. A strong
low level jet to near 40 kts, near 2k ft AGL, is expected
overnight, 06-12z Sat. Low level wind shear was included in the
TAFs for all airports during this time range. After 15z Sat,
S/SW winds will increase at all airports, gusting 28-30 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Significant and near-critical fire weather conditions are
expected Saturday for far southwestern Kansas. Relative
humidities as low as 7% near the KS/CO border are depicted by
ensembles. South/southwesterly sustained winds are expected to
strengthen to around 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph in the
afternoon. Some uncertainty remains regarding whether frequent
>25 mph gusts will overlap with the lowest RH values for an
extended period of time and is the reason there is not an active
fire weather headline.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...Turner
FIRE WEATHER...KBJ