Leawood, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

939
FXUS63 KEAX 201539
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1039 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms with periods of heavy rainfall expected. Strong winds
  and flooding are possible.

- Dangerous heat continues. Even though storms may keep
  temperatures lower; elevated dew points will make conditions
  feel much muggier after storms pass. Overnight lows still
  remain >= 75F.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1035 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

The weather can be fickle sometimes. Especially in a pattern like
this where we find ourselves on the periphery of a large high
pressure system across the SE CONUS. More progressive zonal flow to
the north introduces multiple disturbances from MCSs within the
interior of the flow to shortwaves along the edges. These systems
and perturbations interact with the hot, moist, unstable environment
currently over us bringing heat, humidity, and storms all of which
interact and produce two very different outcomes.

Pivoting becomes the theme as these weather disturbances manifest
themselves. An overnight MCS cruised through the area this morning
leaving a large pocket of slightly more stable air across northern
MO. This also left an outflow boundary which has washed out and has
slowed across the Ozark Plateau. The low level remnants of the
overnight MCS combined with upper level shortwaves fostering the
development of an MCV across NE KS. This MCV is currently working
its way to the area bringing chances for heavy rainfall and flooding
potential. An isolated storm with strong winds cannot be ruled out.

Surface observations and satellite imagery show the MCV following a
broadscale 925mb warm front across northern MO. More convection is
developing along a kinematic boundary stretching from Topeka through
Emporia to Wichita. To further complicate things, the outflow
boundary mentioned previously is expected to lift back northward
guided by the majority southerly surface flow. This southerly flow
has also pushed warmer and more moist air back northward receiving a
small boost from pockets of sunshine this morning. All of this looks
to converge across northern MO from the US-50/I-70 corridor north.
Heavy rainfall and flooding are the primary concerns as the air is
quite saturated and PWAT values exceed 2 inches. Storm motions
parallel to the warm frontal boundary open up opportunities for
training storms which we have already seen hints of across the US-36
corridor. Storm motions are expected to slow through the afternoon
and evening resulting in rain sitting over spots of long periods of
time further increasing flooding concerns. Isolated strong storms
are possible with potentially damaging winds gusts and torrential
rainfall. An isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out, but overall
probabilities remain marginal. Of course, all of this could change
as upstream waves may encourage these systems to move a little
faster. Faster storm motions may reduce chances for higher
accumulations, but storm strength could be increased; everything is a
trade off.

The good news is that the storms will bring some relief from the
anticipated heat. Rainfall may cause high temperatures to
underperform; however, conditions in the post storm environment may
feel worse as the sun quickly reheats the air, evaporating water,
and making the air feel quite muggy and thick. Dangerous heat is
still expected, even though temperatures may not reach as high as
anticipated. Unobstructed southerly flow aided by the nocturnal LLJ
keep overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s bringing little relief
from the hot and muggy conditions.

This pattern is expected to persist for the next several days. It
would not be surprising to see relatively large swings in
temperatures and precipitation probabilities in the short term. An
atmosphere that is very warm, humid, and unstable is ripe for
convection if there is something to initiate it; which there is
plenty of. The pattern is expected to quell slightly midweek making
things a little less chaotic. However, that does mean higher
likelihoods and coverage for dangerous heat across the region. It is
important to remain weather aware and frequently check for forecast
updates. Please check in on friends, family, and neighbors who may
be susceptible to the heat and heat related illnesses.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Another low confidence forecast with very complex scenario
across the region. MCV near MHK Manhattan KS as of 11z is
expected to approach the Missouri state line ~14-15Z. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop along a remnant
boundary along the highway 36 corridor, including the KSTJ
terminal. Additional thunderstorms may try to build south with
time, potentially impacting at least the northern KC metro
towards 18Z. Additional storms are expected towards 00Z Monday
that will likely lead to locally heavy rainfall, but location of
heavy rainfall is uncertain at this time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Thursday for MOZ028>033-
     037>040-043>046-053-054.
     Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for MOZ007-008-016-017-
     024-025.
KS...Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for KSZ025-102.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ057-060-
     103>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...BT