Lawrence, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

907
FXUS63 KTOP 112311
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
611 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-South winds increase Saturday, creating elevated fire danger
 concerns.

-Very warm conditions are expected Sunday as a front moves through
 the area.

-Rain showers are possible (15-20% chance) Sunday night, and again
 (30-50% chance) during the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

This afternoon, the pattern over the CONUS features an amplified mid-
level trough over the eastern half of the country and a ridge over
the Southwest and Rockies. That places the central US under
northwest flow aloft. A surface ridge is also in place across the
Midwest, keeping winds light and temperatures a little cooler than
yesterday. Winds will remain light through the night, but as the
pattern shifts east, a tight pressure gradient will set up Saturday
between the departing surface ridge and a deepening low west of the
area. Fire weather concerns will become elevated due to gusty south
winds of 30 to 35 mph through the afternoon. The stronger southerly
flow will quickly advect warmer temperatures and moisture into the
area, so minimum RH values look to range from 25 to 35 percent as
temperatures warm well into the 70s in eastern KS to near 80
degrees in more central areas of KS.

Surface low pressure and an associated cold front moves our way on
Sunday as a mid-level trough axis traverses the northern US. Models
seem to be trending a little faster with fropa Sunday
morning/midday, but a well mixed boundary layer and warm
temperatures aloft will make for a rather warm mid-April day. Have
maintained highs in the low to mid 80s for much of the area, but
just a touch cooler in north-central KS. NBM and a few deterministic
models continue to show a 15 to 20 percent chance for light QPF
Sunday night as PVA moves over the area.

Cooler temperatures are then forecast early next week as
another surface ridge builds into the region. Dry conditions are
expected until midweek when some models show a shortwave trough
moving through the central US. Of the ensembles, the GEFS is
the most robust with chances and QPF on Wednesday, while
ENS/GEPS show lower probabilities and less QPF. Will watch for
better agreement from models as this timeframe approaches, but
for now will maintain NBM which has a 30 to 50 percent chance
late Wednesday into early Thursday for mainly rain showers and
a chance for a few thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 609 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Light and variable winds this evening become more
predominantly southeast early tomorrow morning, increasing to around
15 kts by late morning. Skies remain clear, though between KTOP
and KMHK there could be some minor visibility reductions from
smoke from controlled burns over the Flint Hills.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Reese