Hays, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

658
FXUS63 KDDC 230935
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
335 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures are predicted through Sunday with highs
  reaching the 60s.

- Cooler weather is forecast starting Monday.

- There are small to medium chances for light rain changing to
  light snow Wednesday afternoon and night. Snow accumulations
  are expected to be very small.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

The mid level flow will become more zonal, encouraging a
continuation of surface troughing in the lee of the Rockies and
warming temperatures. Highs will reach into the 60s today with
plenty of sun. A shortwave trough traversing the northern
plains will push a cold front through Kansas Sunday. Downslope
warming ahead of the front will result in highs in the upper 60s
along the Oklahoma state line. Cooler reading near 60 are
forecast along I-70. In the wake of the front, expect 40s for
highs Monday and upper 40s to 50s Tuesday.

A fast moving shortwave trough will approach the plains
Wednesday. Another surge of cool air will precede this
system. Mid level frontogenesis will serve as a source of lift.
Open and fast moving systems normally don`t yield much
precipitation on the high plains and this will be the case this
time as well. The precipitation may begin as light rain
Wednesday afternoon before ending as light snow Wednesday
evening and night. The GEPS/GEFS and ECMWF ensemble system
means are in reasonable agreement in showing light amounts of
precipitation, with only 30-50% chances for > .1". Chances for
measurable snow of 1" of more are only about 20%, with best
chances along I-70. However, chances for at least some
measurable snow (> .1") are between 40 and 60%. Bottom line is
that precipitation may start as rain, especially across the
southern tier and then change to snow, with snow amounts very
small.

In the wake of the Wednesday system, northwesterly mid level
flow will develop, with shortwave troughs traversing the
northern plains and pushing additional cold fronts across
Kansas. However, these will be glancing surges of cold air and
highs should be no colder than the upper 30s and 40s. The
coldest morning may be Friday when skies clear and winds become
light, with teens to lower 20s possible.

The GEPS/GEFS and ECMWF ensemble means indicate that a more
significant surge of cold air may arrive next Sunday as a deep
upper level trough moves out of Canada into the northern plains
and Midwest. But the brunt of the coldest air will likely remain
to the north and east once again.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1150 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

A surface trough will intensify in the lee of the Rockies toward
the latter half of the period. This will result in light south
winds increasing to about 10 kts. VFR conditions are expected,
with only some high level cloudiness.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Finch