Hays, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

541
FXUS63 KDDC 221051
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
451 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Arctic air exits today and a warming trend returns for the weekend
and early next week

- Dry weather pattern for at least the next week

- Northwest flow will bring periodic fronts with the strongest
  front coming next Wednesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

08z surface and upper air observations show a departing trough
in central and eastern Kansas with a building ridge in the
western CONUS leading to mainly northwest flow in the central
plains. A building surface high pressure is located in northern
Colorado combining with NVA and subsidence in western Kansas
which is leading to clear skies and light winds.

The warming trend starts today as west to northwest winds in the
boundary layer and the building ridge will expel the arctic air mass
and a more temperate airmass moves into western Kansas with 850 mb
temperatures warming to 3-7 (C) by late afternoon.  We should also
see plenty of sun today to help warm much of the area.  There is
still some residual snowpack mainly between the K-96 and I-70
corridor as national snow analysis has the snow depth between 2-4
inches and this could keep high temperatures a couple degrees cooler
as highs will be in the low 50s.  The rest of southwest Kansas with
little to no snowpack should get into the mid to upper 50s.

Sunday HREF ensembles have a 500 mb shortwave moving in from the
northwest which will bring a weak cold front and winds should stay
mainly west to northwest through the day.  Outside of some high
clouds we should continue with more sunshine through the day.  850
mb temps should warm into the 8-10(C) range and highs should reach
into the 60s with much of southwest Kansas having 50-90%
probabilities of highs at least 60 degrees.

Monday we should see highs in the 70s as NBM probabilities of
reaching 70 degrees are at 60-90% across much of southwest Kansas.
Winds should continue to be mainly west to northwest and a weak cold
front moving through western Kansas Monday afternoon should help to
bring some compressional heating.

LREF trends show little to no precipitation through at least the
next week.  There is indications of a stronger cold front with a
more stout trough in the central and northern plains however this
front won`t bring arctic air so temperatures are only expected to
fall back into the upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 451 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025


VFR flight category with winds generally 12 kts or less for all
terminals during the time period.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro