Great Bend, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

910
FXUS63 KICT 122008
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
308 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms are possible this afternoon into
  the evening.

- Warming trend starting mid-week with triple digit heat indices
  on Friday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Currently, there is an upper-level trough over the Upper
Mississippi Valley with the base of the trough over our area. Its
associated surface low is situated over northern Ontario with
surface troughing extending down into Michigan through eastern Iowa
into central Kansas. This afternoon instability will increase to
between 1000-2000 J/kg with peak daytime heating. Generally DCAPE
values are under 1000 J/kg with weak mid-lvl lapse rates around 5.5-
6 C/km. Showers and storms will be possible this afternoon into the
evening with a 20-30% chance in south-central to southeast Kansas.
Given the weak effective shear, severe storms are not expected. Any
storm that develops will be capable of gusty winds and heavy
rainfall. As we move into the overnight hours, chances for
precipitation will continue to decrease. Low temperatures will drop
down to close to normal with lows in the low to mid 60s. As the
upper-level trough shifts further east by Wednesday afternoon, an
upper-level ridge will start to build into our area, returning
northwesterly flow aloft. Given our area will be more influenced by
the upper ridge, chances for precipitation are very low on Wednesday
afternoon, though an isolated storm cannot be completely ruled out
in southeast Kansas. Southerly/southeasterly flow will return at the
surface with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s on
Wednesday.

Thursday and beyond... This upper-level ridge will continue to shift
east and amplify as we move into the weekend. Mostly dry weather is
anticipated through Sunday. Thickness will start to increase as we
move towards the weekend with heights expected to rise. This will
help support the warming trend in our area combined with stronger
southerly flow returning at the surface. High temperatures will ramp
back up into the mid to upper 90s by Friday afternoon. Given
dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s, some areas could see temperatures
in the lower 100s on Friday and Saturday. Low precipitation chances
will return to the forecast Sunday night as models hint at weak
perturbations riding the upper-lvl ridge. Given the uncertainty in
the upper-air pattern, confidence is low on precip chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

VFR conditions are expected through much of the forecast period.
A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out across south-central
and southeast KS this afternoon but confidence is too low for
mention at this point. Patchy fog is possible at all sites
towards dawn Wednesday as light and variable winds continue with
mostly clear skies.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...BRF