Gardner, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

608
FXUS63 KEAX 231052
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
452 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

...Updated 12z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures this weekend.

- A cold front moves through Sunday night into Monday with
  temperatures dropping nearly 20F degrees across the area.

- Next chance for precipitation (30%-45%) will be Wednesday
  into Thanksgiving. Wintry precipitation may be possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Early this morning, a surface ridge of high pressure reside over the
area providing light winds. However, a fair amount of high cloud is
filtering into the area which is keeping temperatures from really
bottoming out. Regardless, temperatures will begin the day in the
mid 20s to lower 30s. This morning high pressure will slide
southeast of the area and WAA will get underway with height rises
aloft which will aid in highs rising into the 50s. WAA will
strengthen Saturday night into Sunday out ahead of a approaching
cold front which will allow highs to rise 10 to 20 degrees above
normal with highs in the upper 50s north to upper 60s south. Sunday
night the aforementioned cold front will move into the forecast
area. Moisture with this system will be lacking however, despite the
National Blend of Models not advertising precipitation, some very
light rain may be possible across the southeastern CWA Sunday night
into Monday morning. CAA behind the front Sunday night into Monday
will make for a much cooler day on Monday with highs in the 40s. A
surface ridge of high pressure will move into the area Monday night
providing a setup for good radiational cooling which will result in
the coldest night of the season thus far with temperatures falling
into the upper teens to lower 20s. High pressure will shift east of
the area Tuesday with late day WAA getting underway under zonal flow
aloft. This will lead to a cool day with highs in the upper 30s to
mid 40s.

Models continue to struggle with how to handle the system that
affects the area in the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. Consequently,
the NBM continues to have trouble resolving the system as well. Two
factors models do seem to be coming to some agreement on is that the
the upper trough looks weaker and also looks more progressive. This
would suggest that the best window for precipitation would be in the
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night timeframe. It also suggests
that accumulating snowfall chances look less likely with the system
being more progressive, it appears precipitation shifts east of the
area before cold air filters in. Consequently, did make a few
changes to the forecast in that time period in keeping precipitation
predominately rain on Wednesday with a mix to perhaps brief transition
to snow Wednesday night. The NBM continues to hold on 20-40% PoPs
for Thanksgiving morning however, 23/00Z runs of mid range models
suggest precipitation may be done by Thursday morning. Highs
Wednesday will be in the 40s to lower 50s but will be cooler behind
the front on Thanksgiving Day with highs in the mid 30s to lower
40s. A ridge of high pressure builds into the area Friday leading to
a cool day with highs holding in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 451 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

High passing clouds expected this afternoon but conditions will
remain VFR. Light winds to start the morning, and may reach
around 8 to 10 kts by the afternoon. Mild weather conditions
expected through the weekend.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Krull