Gardner, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

786
FXUS63 KEAX 112004
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
304 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming temperatures this weekend with highs climbing into the
  low 80s for Sunday

- Next chance for precipitation (less than 20%) comes late
  Sunday into Monday

- More promising chances (40-60%) for rain late next Wednesday
  into Thursday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

High pressure situated over the area has resulted in quiet
conditions for today. Winds this evening will continue to weaken as
the surface high relaxes the pressure gradient. Early tomorrow
morning, winds will shift to the south as the high shifts to the
east. This will kick off a brief warming trend for the weekend with
high temperatures for tomorrow anticipated to be in the mid 60s to
mid 70s.

As the next system begins its approach from the west, a
strengthened pressure gradient will result in breezy conditions
with occasional wind gusts ranging from 25-30 mph for Saturday
afternoon. Additionally, RH values around the low to mid 30s in
eastern KS and western MO will yield slightly elevated fire
weather concerns.

As the surface low moves closer to the area early Sunday morning and
begins to track to the northeast of the area, winds out ahead of the
surface low shift from the south to the southwest yielding high
temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s for Sunday. Areas in
eastern KS and western MO are anticipated to see the warmer end of
that range. Another afternoon of 25-30 mph wind gusts with the
approaching surface low and RH values dropping again to the low to
mid 30s will result in marginal fire weather concerns for eastern KS
and western MO. A recent green-up will help to limit some of these
concerns.

The associated surface front extends to the southwest of the surface
low which will also bring a chance (below 20%) for showers late
Sunday evening into Monday as the surface low moves to the northeast
of the area. The NAM is pointing to the best rain chances being post-
frontal which indicates elevated showers. Models have been trending
drier, so the most likely scenario is that we get increased
cloud cover across the area with some areas getting a few
sprinkles overnight into Monday.

Monday is expected to be significantly cooler than Sunday as the
front moves to east of the area. Highs are anticipated to range in
the mid to upper 60s. Tuesday looks to be fairly similar temperature-
wise.

Late Wednesday into Thursday, another system arrives out of the
Plains bringing more promising (40-60%) chances for showers and
thunderstorms. With CAPE values ranging around 500-800 J/kg and bulk
shear values range anywhere from 40-50 kts, a strong storm or two
may develop. The GFS and ECMWF show dew points around 50-60 degrees
for eastern KS and western MO making these areas the most favorable
for thunderstorms in our area. Conditions look fairly quiet Friday
and into the weekend as mid to upper level ridging builds into the
area with temperatures returning much closer to normal by the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

VFR conditions mainly expected for the duration of the TAF period.
An MVFR cloud deck moving in from the north should stay just to
the east of the terminals, however brief periods of MVFR
conditions are possible through the day. This cloud deck is
anticipated to begin dissipating this evening. Winds start the
TAF period out of the north and are expected to shift to the
south by tomorrow morning. Wind gusts up to 20-25 mph
anticipated tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier